ADMINISTERING

David Levinson,

These problems…fiscal imbalance, traffic congestion, air pollution, the movement of jobs away from minority groups…are susceptible to rather precise formulation and study; alternative ways of coping with them can be conceived and evaluated with a certain rigor; the obstacles to remedial action are primarily political (and to a certain degree economic)…what is most important, something can be done.

-- James Q. Wilson (1970)

After all…

How many homebuyers would be interested in cheap houses without roads, water, sewers, schools, parks and other urban amenities?

What is growth management?

• Growth management is about affordable housing…but it is also about environmental protection, efficient provision of infrastructure, coordinated patterns of land use and transportation, adequate revenues to finance development needs, and healthy preservation of open space.

• It is about doing each of the above in accordance with goals that the public has chosen.

• Close and well coordinated actions between land use control (and planning) and capital investment.

• Distinguished from more traditional plans by their intent and scope rather than by the implementing techniques they use.

Ultimately, growth management is about regulating the:

Amount, timing, location, character of development

Waves of growth management

1. concern over how much growth would be allowed,

2. where and when growth would be permitted, and who would pay for it,

3. what kind of growth is allowed or encouraged.

Growth Management

Approaches Levels

• Regulations• Incentives• Spending• Information/

education

• Federal• State• Regional• Municipal

Issues?

Is growth management all motherhood and apple pie?

Together, identify at least three instances in which there may be negative consequences of growth management programs.

Costs of Growth Management

• Housing affordability– Inflation?– Artificial constriction of supply– Other?

• Open space• Diversion to other areas• Exclusion of certain populations• Other?

Montgomery County, MD: Motivation

• Desire for Adequate Public Facilities• Limited Public Resources• Congestion• Balance Jobs & Houses• Focus Development Around Transit• Constrain Growth in Corridor• Later - Support Affordable Housing

The Complexity of the Problem

• Infrastructure capacity absorption depends on underlying technology and a development’s:– location, – timing, – density, and – character

• Infrastructure serves multiple uses and users– Multi-dimensional bundle of attributes– A flow not a stock– May have a “capacity” or a “standard”

Planning Process• Monitoring should be linked to

– Master plans– Capital Improvement Programs– Financing System– Development Regulation

Decision Frameworks• Proactive vs. Reactive• Categories vs. Continuum• Single vs. Multi-Dimensional• Incremental vs. Comprehensive• Coordinated vs. Fragmented

Map

Historical Overview• 1974: APFO, Report recommending Staging

Policy For Each Area• 1970s: Series of Policy Reports• 1980: Comprehensive Staging Plan <failed>• 1981-6: Comprehensive Planning Policies

(Planning Board)• 1986: Interim Growth Plan• 1987-Present: Annual Growth Policy

(Planning Board & County Council)• 1997: Alternative Review Procedures

Carrying Capacity Model

Growth

Time

PublicFacilityCapacity

PrivatePopulationNeed

Points ofPerfect Balance

Large Incrementof Change

Figure 1: The Timing of Public Facilities and PrivateDevelopment

tolerance

Externality Theory• An externality is “a commodity bundle that is supplied

by an economic agent to another economic agent in the absence of any related economic transaction between the two agents. (Spulber).”

• Arise from lack of property rights.• May be positive or negative. Positive include

consumption externalities and network externalities. Negative include congestion, pollution, accidents, etc.

• First Best Solution: Internalize Externality: Polluter Pays Principle.

• Transactions costs may make internalization difficult.

Desired Outcomes of the Transportation System

Outcome Candidate MeasuresEFFECTIVENESSAND EFFICIENCYMobility/Accessibility

Travel Time,Delay,Access to Desired Locations,Access to System

Reliability Variability of Travel TimeCost-Effectiveness Benefit/Cost Ratio,

Outcome Benefit per CostRESPONSIBILITYSustainability Household Transportation CostsEnvironmental Quality National and State StandardsSafety and Security Accident and Crime RatesEquity Benefits per Income GroupCustomer Satisfaction Customer SurveyEconomic Well Being Final Demand

(Value of Transportation to the Economy)

Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)

• Second-Best Solution: Regulate Developer• Infrastructure Has Multiple Attributes - A

Doctor Looks at More Than Temperature, Planners Should Consider More Than Capacity

• The Right MOE’s Vary Based on Facility Being Analyzed,

• MOE’s Should Consider Not Only Current Status of System, but also Its Direction of Change.

Attributes of Good MOEs

• Complete• Aggregates Well• Aligns with User Experience• Measurable• Predictable• Useful in Regulatory Context

Criteria for Selecting MOE It aids in identifying opportunities to

increase the systemwide net benefits through public investment in improvements or changes in management,

It minimizes the cost to achieve necessary measurement accuracy, and

It produces the right incentives.

Data Sources and Collection

• Supply Data– Measured - Engineering Cost Study– Predicted - Statistical Cost Study

(Many Projects)

• Demand Data – Measured - Operating Agency

Utilization Data– Predicted - Statistical Forecasts

Setting Staging CeilingsPosit Area Land Use

Pattern & AllocateLand Use to Zones

Load into TravelDemand Model &

Run

ComputeCountywidesystem score

ConvergenceTest

Final Land UsePattern

No Yes

Compute TotalTransportation Levelof Service for each

Area

Financing Alternatives • Developer Funded Roads• Trip Mitigation• Impact Fees or Taxes• Development Districts• Development Approval Payment

Model of Transportation and Land Use

LandValue

Amountof Development

Gov't ImposedCost on Development

AutoDemand

RoadwayCapacity

RoadwayAccessibility

RoadwayCongestion

+

+

- +

++

++

++

TransitDemand

TransitCapacity

TransitAccessibilty

?

-

+

+

+

+-

-

-

++

Figure 4: Transportation and the Montgomery County Growth Management System

+

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Second Best Development Regulation:

Minimizes the Cost of: Prevention

(Build) The cost of infrastructure required to maintain the performance indicators (Engineering or Statistical), or

(Manage) The cost of demand and supply management to maintain the performance measures.

Damage (Accept) The cost to the community of

worsening the performance indicators in the absence of the infrastructure.

Lessons Learned• Dividing Responsibility• Categorizing the Continuous• Single Dimensional Standards• Measures of Effectiveness• “Rational” Planning• Bringing Distant Dangers Near

Summary• Externalities Provides Underlying

Rationale for Development Regulation• Unfortunately, “First Best” Solution

(P=MC) is Not Always Feasible• Regulating Supply is a “Second Best”

Solution• Multiple Measures of Effectiveness are

Required to Understand Impact of Development on Capacity Utilization

Conclusions• Select Measures of Effectiveness• Collect and Forecast Data• Establish Standards (Absolute or Relative)• Open System to Peer Review and Public

Scrutiny• Answer Not Whether Development, But

How • Implement Monitoring System in

Regulation

Problems inherent to Talk of growth management

• Excessive talk about height, bulk, scale, or volume-to-capacity ratios. Rather than experience or quality of life.

• Tend to talk in terms of incomes, mixing incomes, and bringing more of "that" income into my neighborhood. In turn we talk less of where the school teacher is going to live?

• We tend to talk in terms of regulation…forcing people to do things. Rather, can we not make $$ and do the right thing at the same time?

• We tend to focus on the supply of public services for me and my community. This in turn steers conversations away from the supply of public services for a more common good

MOE for Transportation: Consumer’s Surplus

TA

DA

DBTU

DU

SUSI

TB

QBQU QA

z

y

x

h

j

k

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g

f

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Time

Traffic Flow (Q)

Land use controls

Racial exclusion

Slower growth

Shift toward Single-family

Fewerrentals

Lower rentalaffordability

•Low density zoning•Building permit caps•UGBs•APFO•moratoria

Action taken Effect

Restrict/limit allowable uses

Slows pace of development and diverts

Specify certain size restrictions

Increase cost, make exclusionary

Restrict rate of development

Diverts to other areas

One community adopts, another does not

Inconsistency b/w jurisdictions

Regional growth management

Spreads development out…further dispersion

What is land use planning?

…public sector planning for privately owned land and privately managed land markets. The preparation of plans for cities, city fringes, and rural areas that indicate the future development pattern of those areas.

…also included is the development and management of legal mechanisms such as zoning regulations, subdivision controls, and differential tax programs to induce and facilitate private land owners to bring about the land use pattern broadly outlined in the land use plans. (Harvey Jacobs ’89)