Addressing Emerging Technologies · and V2V technology for truck platooning, including the EU and Japan as well as ongoing US research NCHRP issued RFPs in March for connected and

Addressing Emerging Technologies:Freight Modes

March 30, 2017

Agenda

• Brief TREDIS Overview

• The Case of Connected and AutonomousFreight Vehicles

• Modeling Scenarios in TREDIS

• Other Freight Technology Innovations toExplore

• Questions & Answers

© 2017 - Economic Development Research Group, Inc. 2

What is TREDIS?

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TREDIS® is a decisionsupport system thathelps connecttransportation andeconomics.

Provides insights aboutchanges in policy or impacts ofprojects and programs to helpyou make decisions, plan, andcommunicate

• economic impacts,• benefit-cost relationships,• financial impacts, and• freight implications.

© 2017 - Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

TREDIS Precision

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• Trusted data sources• Customized spatial detail• Expanded freight data sets• Multimodal analyses• Dynamic multi-year travel

characteristics• Accurate imputation of year-to-

year change in trips, mileage,travel time, etc.

• Expanded forecast years• Market access measures• Workforce migration effects


TREDIS Visualization

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Interactive graphics give youthe opportunity to drill-downinto the numbers for greatertransparency.

• View and traceintermediate calculations

• Supported bydocumentation andpublications


All Stages of Planning Process

Prioritize Projects

Develop LongRange Plans

Evaluate Alternatives Show Economic Roleof Existing Facilities

Assess PublicPolicy Options

Show Impactof Maintenance

Decisions

Determine Impactof a Single Project

6© 2017 - Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

A Case Example forEconomic Analysis ofFreight Technologies

Connected Vehicles –Trucks may be driving themselves much

sooner than your Prius


Freight Transportation Technology

Changes dimensions offreight system:• Trip distances• Trip frequencies• Vehicle characteristics• Volumes and Rate• Response times• Reliability

Innovations coming soon:• Drones• Connected/autonomous• Hyperloop

Logistics components:• Final Customer Delivery• B2B Supply Chain• Warehousing & Distribution


How Tech Leads to Economic Growth

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Changes inTransportation

Technology

TransportationBenefits

Industry CostSavings Response

&Change in Access

to Markets

Economic Growth(Impact)


Industry Dynamic Response

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Cost Savings &ImprovedAccess

Supply ChainImpacts

Competitiveness& Growth

HH ReallocateSpending

Industry Response:1. Retain Profits2. Reduce Prices3. Capital Investment

Gains inProductivity


TREDIS Economic Impact Analysis

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Changes in the Economy• Cover Flows of Money in the Economy• Detailed Industry Growth• Spatial Location• Jobs, Income, Value Added, & Output

Additional Changes• Changes in Productivity• Labor & Capital Flows• Workforce & Population Migration• Export Growth• Import Substitution


Context for Today’s Scenario

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FHWA’s March Talking Freight seminar featured V2Iand V2V technology for truck platooning, including theEU and Japan as well as ongoing US research

NCHRP issued RFPs in March for connected andautonomous vehicle infrastructure standards, datamanagement strategies, business models and more

Arkansas’ House passed a bill permitting platooning onMarch 20th, bills are under way in IA, SC, TN, & others*

Volvo and UC-Berkley completed demonstrations inMarch of three truck platoons in the LA Port complexand on I-110*


How TREDIS Can Help Your Evaluations


Testing alternative baseline scenarios• Do my project impacts change based on future

connected/autonomous vehicle penetration?

Testing impact of state policy to support roll-out• What is the long-term economic implication of allowing or

encouraging more connected vehicles on our highways?

Testing corridor- and facility-specific benefits of newITS technology to enable connected vehicles

• Is it worth while to install V2I infrastructure on this corridor ordesign for highly automated vehicles?

Today’s Example


Illustrative example of how TREDIS can reveal economiceffects of technological change to transportation

• Significant numbers of tractor-trailer combos in this scenario operateas platoons by the year 2030

• Performance characteristics reflect current benefits beingdocumented for the technology.

• Impacts on the industry mix of a Great Plains states

• Impacts on other trucks and passenger vehicles

How to Include a Truck Platoon in TREDIS

Potential Benefits of Truck Platoons• Lower Operator Costs• Higher Fuel Efficiency• Less Congested Travel• Reduced Emissions• Enhanced Safety

Capturing this in TREDIS• We’ll treat a 3 truck platoon as a single vehicle with less than 3

times the cost of a single tractor trailer


Default Modes

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Enables Multimodal AnalysesA wide variety of modesat a level of detail mostusers will benefit from:

• Road• Rail• Aviation• Marine• Pedestrian• Bicycles


Creating Custom Modes


Allow immense flexibility for innovative modeling in TREDIS

Two Ways to Edit Custom Modes


Project Specific Changes (Fuel Cons)


Account-Wide Changes

• Allows you to create custom mode that isconsistent across projects

– Useful if integrating scenario testing into businessprocess that uses TREDIS or knowing you will needto use this mode in number of projects

• Gives additional access to some measuresthat you would otherwise have to edit in eachtravel characteristic year and alternative case


Two Ways to Edit Custom Modes


Hiding, Viewing, & Editing Modes


Account-Wide Changes


Travel Characteristics Presets


Current Transportation Situation

• Trips averaging 50 miles per hour and 6 hour long(focused on long-distance freeway trips)


Future VMT and VHT with Platoons

• 1/3 as many trips, as 3 truck platoons, same speedand duration characteristics

• Passengers and other trucks save a little time frommore efficient truck organization on shared facilities


Congestion and Reliability Effects

• A slight improvement in congestion affects bothmodes as truck acceleration and deceleration is moreconsistent and following distances can decrease


Other Comments on Travel Characteristics

• Occupancy and Safetyfactors areautomatically pulled infrom changes made inManage Modes interface


• TREDIS interpolates between current and futuretravel volumes

• Instead of counting one 3-truck platoon as vehiclemaking a trip, you could count each truck separatelyand set costs accordingly from Mode page.

From Inputs to Results

We have concentrated on only two sections ofthe TREDIS inputs:

• Mode page and• Travel Page

If you want to know more about other aspectsof preparing a project, view one of theIntroduction to TREDIS webinars available at

http://tredis.com/resources/webcasts.


Use of the Straight Line Growth Feature


Impacts Over Time

• Growth builds as platoon penetration grows, inputscan provide additional information about non-linearityin adoption due to policy changes, infrastructure, etc.


Industries of Impact


Value Added

Business Output

Year: 2030

Jobs impacts


• Indirect and induced economic effects are a significantdriver of employment changes since direct savings areconcentrated in less labor-intensive industries

Jobs for 2030

Detailed Industry Results


Financial services in previous charts may be unexpected.

Below we see it’s the real estate industry. Deeper divingshowed that it is actually agricultural business makingpurchases of land.

Benefit Types

Economic Relationships

• Business travelers andcommercial/freight timetravel savings andreliability

• Vehicle operating costsfrom maintenance, tiresinsurance, depreciation orleasing costs, and fuel

• Productivity and access• Logistics costs

Social Measures only

• Safety• Environmental Factors

– Local pollutants (mileage-based)

– Carbon emissions (fuel usage-based)

• Personal / leisure value oftime travel savings andreliability


BC - Societal Benefit


Largest savings fromimproved fuelconsumption andvehicle costs,followed closely fromhigher driverefficiency and travelreliability

Concluding the Example

• This example shows how TREDIS could be used tocapture a new transportation technology usingcustom modes

• Autonomous truck platooning could benefit societyin a number of ways, with several channels ofeconomic impact

– Benefits to incoming, outgoing, and through traffic without directeconomic impacts may have indirect impacts


Extending the Example

• Looking further at effects on other road users and modeswith TREDIS could also provide interesting insights

• Effect of connected and autonomous vehicles on allowingfollowing vehicles, or whole platoons to operate withoutdrivers in cab is another area to investigate

• Different implementation paths to advanced platooningExample:

• For the first 10 years, platoons with a driver in each cab replacesingle vehicles,

• Then in the second 10 years these platoons are slowly replacedwith single driver platoons,

• Followed by fully autonomous platoons in later years


Other Connected and Autonomous Freight

• Related to truck platooning you might alsowant to use TREDIS to examine issues like:– Dedicated truck lanes– Dedicated autonomous vehicle lanes – freight and

passenger– Connected vehicle ITS

• Benefits of better information from vehicles for TSM&O• Benefits of information systems for drivers

– Truck and car platoons


Other Technologies: Hyperloop

• Hyperloop is more likely to involve newinfrastructure than platoons

• May want to consider analysis includingconstruction costs

• Potential to very quickly and efficiently movefreight

• Difficult to make precise operationalestimates, but TREDIS could help determinethe performance levels needed to justifyinvestment


Creating the Model

• Most appropriately copied from the freightrail template

• Operating costs may be very low

• May also be electric based

• TREDIS allows flexibility in creating aninnovated mode like a Hyperloop segment

– Easy to investigate the implications of different costassumptions and performance factors


Other Technologies: Drones

• Application such as customer delivery ortruck restocking suggest a variety ofdifferent payloads

• Could save distance and avoid congestion

• Perhaps at higher average speeds thancurrent technology by avoiding signals

• Could model various safety assumptions


Modeling in TREDIS

• Copy aviation mode or truck mode

• Select electric power type

• Adjust your full range of cost factors

• Enter travel characteristics just like othermodes.


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Capturing What Drones Carry

• You can even adjust the types ofcommodities carried by drones since theyare unlikely to deliver a lot of raw materials

• TREDIS can also be customized so thatmodes you create can target specificindustries, such as:

– E-commerce and mail-order– Direct sales organizations– Delivery and takeout food– Local delivery services


Adjusting Commodity Mix


Shares by Mode – 43 SCTG Codes


Additional Freight Detail

Core TREDIS product

• Transportation costsavings are allocated toindustry and have acommodity mixgenerated by industriesuse of commodities.

Freight-specific products

• Draw directly oncommodity movementdata from differentsources

• Options include TREDISfueled by Transearch andTREDIS with vFreight


TREDIS with vFreight Data


• Commodity flows with directionality for region(changes in % by direction in Travel page reflected inweighted commodity mix)

• vFreight offers detailed county-to-county flows thatcan provide additional detail on cross-modalcharacteristics and external market origin anddestination relationships

• Accessed through variety of freight reports

Completely internal flows


Dynamic rebalancing


TREDIS fueled by Transearch

• Additional truck types with type-specific commoditymixes available as default mode-purposes

• Commodity flows with directionality for the region orcorridor, freight is routed to allow insight on exactlywhat is traveling on your facility of interest

• Freight reports by origin-destination, commodity, triplength, mode, economic relationships and economicdependency on freight.


Upcoming Webinars

• April 25 at 1 pm - Addressing Emerging TechnologiesPart 2 – Passenger Modes

– Topics include: Electric and High-efficiency Vehicles (coupledwith Road User Charge), Ride-sharing (Uber, Lyft, Taxi)

• May 23 at 1 pm - Introducing TREDAIR– A new tool to perform cost-effective economic impact analysis for

small airports

www.tredis.com/webcasts


For More Information…

TREDIS Software Group155 Federal Street, Suite 600

Boston, MA 02110(617) 303-0424

[email protected]

[email protected]

Free Trial: www.tredis.com/trial


Documents

Addressing Emerging Technologies · and V2V technology for truck platooning, including the EU and Japan as well as ongoing US research NCHRP issued RFPs in March for connected and