Adaptive Make Radical Advances in System Design & Manufacturing

Paul Eremenkoeremenko@alum.mit.edu

fmr. Deputy Director/Acting DirectorTactical Technology Office

Briefing prepared for MIT Club of Washington, DC31st Annual Seminar Series—Rebuilding U.S. Manufacturing

March 12, 2013

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.

The six frigates (1794)

2

“… the sum of $688,888… to provide, equip and employ, four ships to carry forty guns each, and two ships to carry thirty-six guns each….”

--An Act to Provide a Naval Armament, March 27, 1794

USS Philadelphia, Tripoli Harbor, February 16, 1804

3

B-52 Stratofortress (1946)

"It is desired that the requirements set forth be considered as a goal and that the proposal be for an interim airplane to approximate all requirements, except that emphasis must be placed on meeting the high speed requirement... It is the intent that design proposals should present the best possible over-all airplane..." --Directive letter inviting design proposals for the B-52 bomber, February 13, 1946

F-111 Aardvark (1961)

5

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (2001)

6

Technical spec length over time

Year of Entry into Service

7

Exponential trends in component technologies

8

Exponential trends in component technologies

9

Exponential trends in component technologies

10

Exponential trends in component technologies

11

Exponential trends in component technologies

12

Embedded Software Size

Complexity—a driver of cost & schedule growth?

13

Evidence for a causal relationship

14

The problem is in the “seams”

Between stages of production →

← Between system components

Between people & organizations →

Source: MIT ESD (deWeck et al., 2008)

Source: DDR&E/SE (Flowe et al., 2009)

15

Systems engineering—a method for managing complexity

CostOptimization

Power Data & Control Thermal MgmtSWaP

Optimization

SWaPOptimization

System FunctionalSpecification

. . .

. . .

SubsystemDesign

ComponentDesign

SystemLayout

Verification & Validation

ComponentTesting

SubsystemTesting

SWaP = Size, Weight, and PowerUndesirable interactions (thermal, vibrations, EMI)Desirable interactions (data, power, forces & torques)

V&V = Verification & Validation

System decomposed based on arbitrary cleavage lines . . .

Conventional V&V techniques do not scale to highly complex or adaptable systems–with large or infinite numbers of possible states/configurations

SWaP used as a proxy metric for cost, and dis-incentivizes abstraction in design

Unmodeled and undesired interactions lead to emergent behaviors during integration

. . . and detailed design occurs within these functional stovepipes

MIL-STD-499A (1969) systems engineering process: as employed today

Re-Design

Resulting architecturesare fragile point designs

16

Systems engineering process unchanged for 50 years

Giffin M., de Weck O., et al., Change Propagation Analysis in Complex Technical Systems, J. Mech. Design, 131 (8), Aug. 2009.

Engineering Change Requests (ECRs) per Month of Program Life

From Project Inception through Midcourse Maneuver, vol. 1 of Mariner Mars 1964 Project Report: Mission and Spacecraft Development, Technical Report No. 32-740, 1 March 1965, JPLA 8-28, p. 32, fig. 20.

Mariner Spacecraft (1960s) Modern Cyber-Electromechanical System (2000s)

17

The Consequences

18

Cost growth

19

$1 quintillion

$1 quadrillion

$1 trillion

$1 billion

$1 million

$1 thousand

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150Year of Entry into Service

Wright Model A

Morse JN-4A Standard E-1

DH-4

SPAD P-39P-51

P-61

F-15

F-14

F-18F-16

A-10

F-35F-18

B-52

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

DEFENSE BUDGETEntire Defense budget to buy one airplane.

Entire GNP to buy one airplane.

Source: Norm Augustine, Augustine’s Laws, 6th Edition, AIAA Press, 1997.

Sources: Air Force Museum, Air Force Magazine, GlobalSecurity, DAMIR database, and other sources

Schedule growth

20

Decrease in aircraft program new starts

Source: Anton, P., Wind Tunnel and Propulsion Test Facilities, RAND TR-134, 2004

21

22

Decrease in industrial output

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Source: Booz & Company analysis

Production facility closures

23

and

Ideal Employer Ranking

Failure to replenish the talent pool

Source: Booz & Company analysis of data from AIAA and Universum Ideal Employer Rankings Survey

24

Enter DARPA

25

1957

Sputnik Dwight D. EisenhowerDwight D. Eisenhower

1958

What is DARPA?

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) was established in 1958 to prevent strategic surprise from negatively affecting U.S. national security and create strategic surprise for U.S. adversaries by maintaining the technological superiority of the U.S. military.

26

► Singular mission to create & prevent strategic surprise

► Not a requirements-driven culture

► Acceptance of risk (technical & process) and failure

► Projects of finite duration culminating in demonstration

► Tenures of finite duration; broad aperture for recruitment

► Agile organization; no labs; no facilities; flexible

contracting

► Varied transition paths—sometimes very indirect

What makes DARPA unique?

27

Orbital ExpressMiTEXPegasus Taurus

1997

DARPASAT Falcon SLVGLOMR

1998

Tacit Blue X-45/46/47Global HawkX-31

199019821977 2002

Have Blue A-160 HTV-2

2011

Sea Shadow

1984 2005

2002

Boomerang

2003

Tank BreakerM16 SSN

1987

NetfiresTalon

20031973 1978

Big Dog

2008

200720061990 1995 20031985

1997

AM3ALG DTCUGCVNAVLAB

1984 2011200419951990

Aero-/Hydro-Dynamic Systems

Space Systems

Ground/Soldier Systems

Tactical Technologies

TTO’s history of technology demonstrators

28

Approaches for tackling complexity

Simplify

Disaggregate

Modularize

??? 29

Raising the level of abstraction—VLSI design

Daily engineer output(Trans/day)

Develop-ment time (mo)

IP block performance Inter IP communication performance models

incr

easi

ng a

bstr

actio

n

Cluster

AbstractCluster

AbstractRTL RTL

clusters

Abstract

Cluster SWmodels

IP blocks

Transistor model Capacity load

Gate level model Capacity load

System-on-chip Design Framework Wire load

30

Transistors per chip

Speed (Hz)

Feature Size (µm)

Sources: Singh R., Trends in VLSI Design: Methodologies and CAD Tools, CEERI, Intel, The Evolution of a Revolution, and Sangiovanni-Vinventelli, A., Managing Complexity in IC Design, 2009

Foundry-style manufacturing—integrated circuits

An approach to VLSI chip design that separates design from manufacturing (Mead & Conway, 1979).

Design implementation:

Use of simplified device & component models that trade some performance for automation of design.

Design rules that are independent of and scalable with process technologies.

Semiconductor manufacturing facility becomes the semiconductor foundry.

Semiconductor product implementation: Chip prototypes are manufactured in silicon foundries using the same tools, fabrication processes and materials used for high-volume chip manufacturing… no seams.

The result:Moved from hundreds of chip designers using vertically-integrated, captive semiconductor facilities to tens of thousands of designers using pure-play semiconductor foundries to create thousands of products.

Continues to enable, cost-effective custom VLSI products: Generating new markets & new companies including Apple, Silicon Graphics, Cadence, Jazz, TSMC, Broadcom, Nvidia and Qualcomm.

31

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Complexity (# genes inserted/modified)

1010

1011

109

108

107

106

105

104

103

Eff

ort

(to

tal $ *

yrs

to d

evelo

p)

[$*y

r] yeastminimal bacterium

DARPA annual budget

Living Foundries

genome rewritecomplex genetic circuits

metabolic engineering

LF: after 6 mos

Raising the level of abstraction—synthetic biology

32

Foundry-style manufacturing—proteins

Biology provides the design rules and models

Vaccine implementation: Only the relevant genetic sequence of bug required, not entire virus.

DARPA Blue Angel program enabled… •A 4 site manufacturing platform in the USA capable of meeting phase 1 appropriate FDA requirements for vaccine production.•3 Investigational New Drug Applications with the FDA•3 Phase 1 clinical trials

Texas A&M University (TAMU)-Caliber example:Growth room is approximately the size of half a football field at four stories tall (150 feet x 100 feet x 50 feet high) Total number of plants: 2.2 million

The result today…Rapid, adaptive platform. Tobacco plant production may result in more rapid production cycles (< 30 days) and less facility expenditures to increase capacity once an FDA approved product is available.

33

Aerospace state-of-the-art

34

Image courtesy of Dassault Systemes

Dassault Falcon 7XTwo-fold schedule compression for new business jets through faithful application of a digital master model with QA/QC feedback by tail number

Lockheed Martin F-35Shimming and ‘drill and fill’

approach significantly worsens production learning effects,

leading to delays and cost growth*

Image courtesy of Lockheed Martin

* GAO-10-382: Joint Strike Fighter – Additional Costs and Delays Risk Not Meeting Warfighter Requirements on Time, Mar 2010

34

Adaptive Vehicle Make

35

Improving designer productivity by abstractionH

iera

rcha

l Abs

trac

tion

System

Subsystems

Assemblies

Components

Static Models

Qualitative Models

Linear / ODE

Nonlinear / PDE

Relational Models

~1010

~105

~102

~10

Model Abstraction

# of

Des

ign

Alte

rnati

ves

36

Integration of formal semantics across domains

META Semantic Integration

Formal Verification

•Qualitative reasoning•Relational abstraction•Model checking•Bounded model checking

Distributed Simulation

•NS3•OMNET•Delta-3D•CPN

EquationsModelica-XML

FMU-MES-functionFMU-CS

High LevelArchitectureInterface (HLA)

Composition•Continuous Time•Discrete Time•Discrete Event

•Energy flows•Signal flows•Geometric

Hybrid Bond Graph

ModelicaFunctional Mock-up

Unit

Embedded Software Modeling

TrueTimeSimulink/Stateflow

Stochastic Co-Simulation

•Open Modelica•Delta Theta•Dymola

37

Verification of design correctness

• Models are fully composable• Simulation trace sampling to verify

correctness probability• Application of probabilistic model

checking under investigation• 10^2 10 designs

Component Models•Modelica•State Flow•Bond Graphs•XML•Geometry

Sem

an

ticIn

teg

ratio

n

• Static constraint application• Manufacturability constraints• Structural complexity metrics• Info entropy complexity metrics• Identify Pareto-dominant designs• 10^10 10^4 designs

Static Trade Space Exploration Qualitative Reasoning

• Qualitative abstraction of dynamics• Computationally inexpensive• Quickly eliminate undesirable designs• State space reachability analysis• 10^4 10^3 designs

Relational AbstractionLinear Differential Equation Models

• Relational abstraction of dynamics• Discretization of continuous state space• Enables formal model checking• State-space reachability analysis• 10^3 10^2 designs

• Generate composed CAD geometry for iFAB

• Generate structured &unstructured grids

• Provide constraints and input data to PDE solvers

• Couple to existing FEA, CFD,EMI, & blast codes

• 10 1 design

CAD & Partial Differential Equation Models

Embedded Software Synthesis

• Auto code generation• Generation of hardware-

specific timing models• Monte Carlo simulation

sampling to co-verify• Hybrid model checking

under investigation

Phys

ical

Softw

are

Compu

ting

A

B

38

Modeling shows promise for 5X time compression

400 Req/M 40010 Arch/M 80

400 Spec/M 6002000 Tests/M 600  Req*/M 800

200 Req/M 2005 Arch/M 40

200 Spec/M 3001000 Tests/M 300  Req*/M 400

00 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96

Time (Month) Time (Month)Requirements Elicitation : METAm-on/off-with-changeConcept Exploration : METAm-on/off-with-changeDesign and Integration : Metam-on/off-with-changeVerification : METAm-on/off-with-changeValidation : METAm-on/off-with-changeCertificate of Completion : METAm-on-with -change

Requirements/MonthArchitectures/MonthSpecifications/Month

Tests/MonthRequirements/Month

META Design FlowTraditional Design Flow

Source: Olivier de Weck, MIT39

Digitally-programmable manufacturing network

Manufacturing Process Model LibraryManufacturing Process Model Library

Constraintsfrom Selected Configuration

META Design

Static Process Mapping SequencingFoundry Trade Space

Exploration

Kinematic Machine Mapping

Topological Decomposition

Kinematic Assembly Mapping

SchedulingCNC Instructions

Human Instructions

*Manufacturing ConstraintFeedback to META Design Rock Island Arsenal Bldg

299 Final Assembly

*

*

40

Unfolded (unstable)

Folded (stable)

41

Expanding the talent pool: FoldIt

Sources: Fold it, Katib et al, Crystal structure of a monomeric retroviral protease solved by protein folding game players., Nature Structural and Molecular Biology 18, 1175–1177, 2011

Purpose: Research mobilization, self-organization potential of social networks & crowd sourcing

Challenge: Locate 10 large, red weather balloons at undisclosed locations across the United States on Saturday, December 5, 2009

Result: All 10 balloons located in 8 hours 52 minutes•Winner = MIT Red Balloon Challenge Team

• recursive incentive scheme with human data validation•4,368 total registrants

12:56

10:08

11:5411:27

14:20

11:1111:32

15:57

13:01

12:14

Balloon Locations/Time First Submitted

*Balloons Went Up at 10:00 EST*

Union Square, San Francisco

ALICE WINS $750BOB WINS $500CAROL WINS $1,000DAVE WINS $2,000

42

Expanding the talent pool: Red Balloon Challenge

Source: Complexity and Social Networks Blog

Expanding the talent pool: VehicleFORGE

43

FANG 1: Mobility/Drivetrain• Vehicle drivetrain to meet IFV speed, efficiency,

terrain, reliability objective• Model library spanning multiple instances of all

components necessary to build system, along with curation capability to accept new models

Fast Adaptable Next-Generation Ground Vehicle (FANG)

FANG 3: Full Amphibious IFV

• Complete IFV based on core USMC ACV objectives and distilled requirements

FANG 2: Chassis/Structure

• Chassis and armor design to meet principal IFV-like survivability objectives

• Model library to include: • Materials and joining mechanisms for hull• Novel configs (monocoque, v-hulls)

Purp

ose

Tim

ing

Priz

eSc

ope

• Demo META design flow functionality• Establish collaborative design environment• Demo foundry configuration functionality• Test breath/depth of component model library

• Design: Jan-Apr 2012• Build: May-Jul 2012

• Demo META advanced design analysis tools• Enable vendor-driven component models• Expand AVM collaborative design community• Resolve handling of sensitive design features

• Design: Oct 2012 – Jan 2013• Build: Feb-Apr 2013

• Demo 5-fold reduction in development time• Produce amphibious IFV to USMC req’ts• Bolster industry adoption of META approach • Establish self-sustaining model libraries

• Design: Jun 2013 – Jan 2014• Build: Feb-Jul 2014

• $1M for winning design • $1M for winning design • $2M for winning design

• Complete basic functional development of META tools

• Establish FANG Challenge administration/rules/mechanisms

• Generation of timely TDP for iFAB Foundry build

• Executing entire make process within 3 years (1/5th of SoA timescale)

• Developing/exiting a design community large enough to enable 25+ competitive teams

• Integrating critical GOTS components (i.e. weapons systems, turret, C4ISR, etc.)

• Handling and incorporation of security sensitive data and analysis into challenge execution

• External vendor component model contributions• Standing with PM-AAA ACV Hull Survivability

Demonstrators (HSDs)

Prog

ram

Fo

cus

44

www.darpa.mil

45