Adapting to realities - The new enviroment

Maximilian Foedinger

What products are in demand? Product label

Imported value in 2009, US Dollar Mio

Imported value in 2013, US Dollar Mio

Imported value in 2014, US Dollar Mio

Growth 5y Growth 1y

All products

12.587.676

18.584.549

18.740.071 47,64 0,84 Bird skin, feathers, artificial flowers, human hair

3.569

4.952

5.915 38,77 19,46

Zinc and articles thereof

9.722

13.411

15.252 37,94 13,73

Cocoa and cocoa preparations

33.892

43.153

48.705 27,32 12,87

Knitted or crocheted fabric

17.388

26.210

29.277 50,73 11,70

Headgear and parts thereof

5.881

7.783

8.674 32,33 11,44 Umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, etc

2.261

2.751

3.062 21,67 11,29

Ceramic products

33.522

44.741

49.452 33,47 10,53

Nickel and articles thereof

20.517

28.907

31.912 40,89 10,40 Vegetable textile fibres nes, paper yarn, woven fabric

2.530

3.542

3.908 40,00 10,34

Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet

154.076

193.437

211.720 25,55 9,45

Import Absolute in Mio. USD Country

Imported value in 2009, US Dollar Mio

Imported value in 2013, US Dollar Mio

Imported value in 2014, US Dollar Mio

Growth 5y average

Growth 1y

United States of America

1.601.896

2.265.911

2.346.041 148.829

80.129

Switzerland

155.378

200.934

275.054 23.935

74.120

Viet Nam

69.949

132.033

178.313 21.673

46.280

United Kingdom

552.042

657.223

694.823 28.556

37.601

Germany

938.363

1.194.483

1.223.837 57.095

29.354

Mexico

234.385

381.210

399.977 33.118

18.767

Spain

287.502

332.267

350.978 12.695

18.711

Poland

149.570

205.614

216.687 13.423

11.073

Korea, Republic of

323.082

515.573

525.564 40.496

9.991

Iran, Islamic Republic of

-

45.807

55.555 no data

9.748

Czech Republic

104.850

142.526

152.004 9.431

9.478

Import Growth in %

Country Imported value in

2009, US Dollar Mio

Imported value in 2013, US Dollar

Mio

Imported value in 2014, US Dollar

Mio Growth 5y Growth 1y

Cambodia

212

130

307 45,16 136,90

Kiribati

67

97

180 167,99 84,92

Guinea

1.463

1.943

3.585 145,03 84,50

Kyrgyzstan

2.974

5.983

9.328 213,65 55,90

Ethiopia

7.974

14.899

21.914 174,83 47,08 Falkland Islands (Malvinas)

75

136

199 167,31 46,04

Cambodia

3.906

9.227

13.265 239,64 43,76

Switzerland

155.378

200.934

275.054 77,02 36,89

Viet Nam

69.949

132.033

178.313 154,92 35,05 Northern Mariana Islands

71

95

124 74,60 29,79

Guinea-Bissau

296

315

397 34,14 25,92

Top 10 increased demand

Product label

Exported value in 2009, US

Dollar thousand

Exported value in 2013, US Dollar Mio

Exported value in 2014, US Dollar Mio

Growth 5y Growth 1y

Commodities not elsewhere specified

266.610

251.770

338.648

21,27

25,65

Zinc and articles thereof

9.707

13.244

15.622

37,86

15,23

Footwear, gaiters and the like, parts thereof

82.042

127.262

144.790

43,34

12,11

Cocoa and cocoa preparations

34.128

43.707

49.399

30,91

11,52 Articles of apparel, accessories, not knit or crochet

156.611

209.569

234.928

33,34

10,79

Works of art, collectors pieces and antiques

15.413

24.742

27.514

43,98

10,07

Nickel and articles thereof

18.729

27.130

30.148

37,88

10,01 Vegetable textile fibres nes, paper yarn, woven fabric

2.784

4.208

4.668

40,35

9,86

Bird skin, feathers, artificial flowers, human hair

3.779

7.880

8.608

56,09

8,45

Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products nes

682

806

878

22,33

8,25

Top 10 Asia‘s export commodities

Code Product label Exported value in

2014 TUSD

TOTAL All products

7.534.120

'85 Electrical, electronic equipment

1.510.112

'27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc

1.339.499

'84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc

879.628

'87 Vehicles other than railway, tramway

371.669

'71 Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc

302.998

'39 Plastics and articles thereof

252.896

'90 Optical, photo, technical, medical, etc apparatus

228.405

'29 Organic chemicals

179.213

'61 Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet

167.124

Central Asia top 10 Code Product label

Exported value in 2014

Mio USD

TOTAL All products

98.059

'27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc

72.522

'28 Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes

3.124

'72 Iron and steel

3.096

'71 Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc

2.773

'26 Ores, slag and ash

2.772

'74 Copper and articles thereof

2.485

'52 Cotton

1.643

'10 Cereals

1.139

'79 Zinc and articles thereof

703

'25 Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement

626

Asia’s Share on World Exports

38.85

38.68

39.47

40.25

40.37

2009

2010

2011

2013

2014

Asia

In Mio USD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

World 15054 18057 18091 18552 18659

Asia Aggregation 5849 6986 7142 7469 7534

Inner Asian Trade

60%

3391

4100 4286

4470 4509

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Inner Asian Trade in Mio USD

Imports of Asian countries 2001

Imports of Asian countries 2014

Inner Asian Imports 2001

Inner Asian Import 2014

Russia / EU Trade

Product label

European Union (EU 28)'s exports to Russian Federation

Value in 2012 Value in 2013 Value in 2014 Growth

All products 158060 160.171 137.546 -12,98

Meat and edible meat offal 2057 2.150 370 -82,02

Nickel and articles thereof 154 111 33 -78,78

Products of animal origin, nes 51 47 28 -45,16

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 1831 1.506 1.068 -41,71

Manufactures of plaiting material, basketwork, etc. 4 4 3 -41,00

Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof 3829 3.213 2.337 -38,97

Lead and articles thereof 5 6 3 -35,93 Vegetable textile fibres nes, paper yarn, woven fabric 9 9 6 -35,92

Meat, fish and seafood food preparations nes 253 234 163 -35,74

Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons 1681 1.689 1.082 -35,66

Russia‘s new Suppliers for Meat

Exporters Imported value in

2012 Mio USD Imported value in

2013 Mio USD Imported value in

2014 Mio USD Growth

Switzerland 0,048 0,05 5,505 11368,75

Kazakhstan 0,146 3,185 10,928 7384,932

Turkey 0,909 2,767 25,359 2689,769

Colombia 0,849 0 6,913 714,2521

Serbia 7,29 0,94 57,424 687,7092

China 7,926 5,968 36,258 357,4565

Belarus 316,708 530,829 672,02 112,1891

New Zealand 35,447 39,907 55,498 56,56614

Chile 65,572 59,752 99,299 51,43506

Argentina 172,691 190,628 261,141 51,21865

Brazil 1670,453 1952,27 2411,856 44,38335

Iceland 3,416 2,127 3,654 6,967213

Paraguay 570,178 652,663 601,66 5,521434

Bloomberg Financial news 15.10.2015

The Phase One of RMB Cross-border Inter-bank Payment System (CIPS) started

operation on 8 October 2015. The CIPS, as an important financial infrastructure,

provides clearing and payment services for financial institutions in the cross-border

RMB and offshore RMB business. The CIPS is designed to be built in two phases. The

first phase, when completed, facilitates processing of cross-border RMB business and

supports settlement of cross-border trade in goods and services, cross-border direct

investment, cross-border financing and find transfer for individual customers. The

CIPS Phase One has the following features: real time gross settlement of fund transfer

of both individual customers and financial institutions; one-point entry by all direct

participants for centralized clearing through a shortened route of clearing to achieve

efficiency; the adoption of ISO20022 message dash board for straight-through

processing of cross-border businesses; its operation hours covering the time zones of

Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania, where the RMB business essentially take place.

Yuan dominates Asia - Pacific Area

12% 12.10%

21.70% 12.30%

21.80%

16%

28%

23%

7% 31%

Jan-Apr 2012 Jan-Apr 2015

AUD USD HKD JPY RMB

Source: Swift

US Money Supply

US Velocity

EU and US Inflation Rate

Oil Price (WTI)

GDP Top Performer Country Name 2013 2014 South Sudan 13,13 36,17 Turkmenistan 10,20 10,30 Ethiopia 10,49 9,94 Congo, Dem. Rep. 8,50 9,05 Cote d'Ivoire 9,22 9,00 Myanmar 8,24 8,50 Uzbekistan 8,00 8,10 Palau -2,03 7,95 Mongolia 11,64 7,82 Maldives 7,72 7,56 Lao PDR 8,52 7,46 India 6,90 7,42 Mozambique 7,31 7,37 Sri Lanka 7,25 7,37 China 7,68 7,35 Dominican Republic 4,78 7,34 Chad 5,70 7,30 Mali 2,14 7,22 South Asia 6,59 7,13 Cambodia 7,36 7,03

GDP Slow performer

Country Name 2013 2014 Venezuela, RB 1,34 -4,00 Equatorial Guinea -4,84 -3,11 Cyprus -5,36 -2,26 Serbia 2,57 -1,81 St. Lucia -0,43 -1,60 West Bank and Gaza -4,28 -1,50

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1,80 -0,45 Italy -1,70 -0,43 Croatia -0,94 -0,40 Macao SAR, China 10,66 -0,35 Guinea 2,30 -0,30

Gambia, The 4,80 -0,20 Finland -1,32 -0,11 Japan 1,61 -0,10 Brazil 2,74 0,14 France 0,66 0,18 Barbados -15,26 0,21 Austria 0,23 0,30

Conclusion

The Economic Crisis in US/EU is not over – it makes a pause

Asia uncouples from the rest of the world

Yuan will be a dominating Currency in World Trade

Raw material dependent economies have to tighten their belts and invest in diversification

Africa is getting momentum