19/11/2007 1

Adapting to Climate Change In Coastal EnvironmentsPeter Nimmrichter, P.Eng.AMEC Earth and Environmental, Mississauga, Ontario

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The Great Lakes Watershed

The Great Lakes cover an area of 244,160 km2 with a total shoreline length of 17,000 km.The watershed area that drains into the Great Lakes is relatively small at 522,000 km2.

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The Coastal ZoneBeaches

The coastal zone has a wide variety of shoreline types from extensive sandy beaches at places like Sandbanks and Presqu’ile on Lake Ontario, Long Point on Lake Erie, Wasaga Beach on Lake Huron.

Sauble Beach, Lake Huron

Sand Banks PP, Lake Ontario

Wasaga Beach, Georgian Bay

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The Coastal ZoneRocky Shorelines

Rocky shorelines with vertical limestone cliffs on the Bruce Peninsula to rocky shorelines along much of the northern part of Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

Pukaskwa National Park, Lake Superior

Lake Huron

Georgian Bay

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The Coastal ZoneWetlands

Prior to European colonization of the Great Lakes basin, wetlands were extensive and numerous and ranged from extensive deciduous swamps at the west end of Lake Erie, to major cattail and shallow water marshes at places like Point Pelee, Bay of Quinte, CootesParadise in Hamilton and extensive wild rice beds in northern parts of Lakes Huron and Superior.

Long PointLake Erie

Bad River ReservationLake Superior

Point Pelee National ParkLake Erie

Georgian Bay Islands National Park

MacGregor Point Provincial Park on Lake Huron

Northeast CoastLake Michigan

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Years of Changes to the Coastal Zone

deforestationextensive modification of shorelines particularly on Lakes Ontario and Erie.creation of harboursnumerous water control devices from small dams to large dams and major control structures to facilitate shipping.creation of canals particularly WellandCanal to bypass Niagara Falls.pollution from industry, agriculture and residential

Numerous changes have been made to the coastal zone of the Great Lakes in the past 200 years.

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Years of Changes to Fisheries

Ecosystems have been changed with the exploitation of fisheries, the introduction of new species, so that the present coastal aquatic ecosystem bears little resemblance to the natural condition, certainly in the southern Lakes. More than 150 invasive species (25 fish species) have become established since the 1800’s

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Fisheries & the Great Lakes

Thermal HabitatThermal grouping Species Spawning Optimum Preferred Mean

warmwater bluegill 23.7 30.2 31.3 30.8white perch 20.1 28.8 29.8 29.0smallmouth bass 18.0 27.0 27.4 27.2

Mean 20.6 28.7 29.5 29.0coolwater yellow perch 9.3 22.5 23.3 22.9

walleye 8.0 22.6 21.7 22.2northern pike 6.9 20.0 23.5 21.8

Mean 8.1 21.7 22.8 22.3coldwater brook trout 8.7 15.0 13.0 14.0

lake whitefish 5.7 15.2 11.1 13.2lake trout 10.6 11.7 11.2 11.5

Mean 8.3 14.0 11.8 12.9

Temperature requirements of typical Lake Ontario fish of the three major thermal groupings.

(Casselman, 2005)

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Climate Change in the Coastal Zone

Increasing air temperatureIncreasing water temperature Decreasing ice coverIncreasing precipitationIncreasing evaporation and evapotranspirationDecreasing water levels

Climate is forecast to change, and the various modelssuggest that in the Great Lakes Region there will be:

Delhi CDA/CS Annual Temperature

0

2

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16

1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Tem

pera

ture

( °C

)

0

2

4

6

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Minimum

Mean

Maximum

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Coastal Study Sites on the Great Lakes

Project identified 12 Sites around the Great Lakes, three each on Lake Ontario, Erie, Huron and Superior.

1. Bay of Quinte / Presqu’ile2. Toronto3. Hamilton4. Long Point5. Point Pelee6. Lake St Clair7. Goderich8. Bruce Penninsula9. Georgian Bay10. Pukaswa National Park11. Thunder Bay12. Heritage Coast

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Presqu’ile Provincial ParkLake Ontario

Lengthening shoulder seasons when seasonal workers not availableWinter and spring fall storms major damage to trees and require more labour than available.Increasing beach areas with low water levels.Connections of important islands to mainland with low water levels.Water access for private residences

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Presqu’ile Provincial ParkLake Ontario

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Presqu’ile Provincial ParkWater Level Effects

Climate change models suggest that the levels of Lake Ontario will likely dropSmall changes in lake levels will result in dramatically different shoreline configurations

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Presqu’ile Provincial ParkWater Level Effects

1790

1878

1998

Significant landform development in the past 200+ years

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Presqu’ile Provincial ParkChanging Shoreline Configuration

Presqu’ile’s shoreline with a one meter drop in lake levels.

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Presqu’ile Provincial ParkEcologically Significant Shoreline Changes

Beach grows to the west

Marsh extends into Presqu’ile Bay

Islands connect to the mainland.

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Presqu’ile Provincial ParkTemperature Effect

Courtesy of Paul Gray, MNR

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Sturgeon BayGeorgian Bay, Lake Huron

Increasing residential useLower water levels, difficult water access for some propertiesWarmer water temperatures, resulting in anoxic hypolimnion in summer and fish killsIncreased water temperatures combined with increasing phosphorous resulting in increased blue green algal blooms

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Sturgeon BayGeorgian Bay, Lake Huron

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Sturgeon BayWater Level Effects

Courtesy of Karl Scheifer, EcoMetrix

Spring overturn, moderate P levelsEarly summer, formation of thermoclineMid summer, thermocline lowered, reduced hypolimnion, high P Late summer, limited hypolimnion, high P levels, low O2, fish kills

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Sturgeon BayTemperature and Nutrient Effect

Courtesy of Karl Scheifer, EcoMetrix

Courtesy of Paul Gray, MNR

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Long PointLake Erie

Longer shoulder seasons may increase warm-weather operating seasonIncreased temperatures may allow expansion of Carolinian species and promote the spread of Lyme disease Increasing water temperatures will stress native species and promote invasives

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Long PointWater Level Effects

Conditions under High Historic Water Levels (1978)

High Water Level under Climate Change Low Water Level under Climate Change

Conditions under Low Historic Water Levels (1964)

Data Courtesy of Susan Doka, DFO

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Long PointWater Level Effects on Wetlands

Conditions under High Historic Water Level (1978)

High Water Level Condition under Climate Change Low Water Condition Level under Climate Change

Conditions under Low Historic Water Level (1964)

Data Courtesy of Susan Doka, DFO

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Long PointTemperature Effects

Reduced ice coverOpportunity for increased over wintering of waterfowlIncreased potential for snow and ice stormsIncreasing water temperatures will stress native species and promote invasivesWater intakes

Courtesy of Paul Gray, MNR

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Tools for Adaptation to Climate Change

Regulations

Changes in behaviour

Technology

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Coastal Restoration Options

Include efforts to restore badly damaged ecosystems and shorelines

LaSalle Park, Lake Ontario

Presqu’ile Park, Lake Ontario

Bluffers Park, Lake Ontario

Cootes Paradise, Lake Ontario

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Conclusions

Expectation of warming in coastal areas of the Great Lakes.Receding water levels and disproportionate heating of shallow areas may result in more extensive habitat changes in coastal areasThese changes may provide opportunities for warm-water (including invasive species) to proliferate. Native, cold-water species would retreat from these areas.

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Conclusions (cont’d)

Variability of coastal climateConsider that all components of system should be maintainedPlan for the future in consideration of …

• Wetlands, Fish, Wildlife• Human industry / Habitation• Aesthetics / Wild Places

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Climate Change Action Fund Coastal Zone Project Partners

Partners with AMEC are:

Meteorological Services Canada

Canadian Wildlife Service

Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources

Toronto and Region Conservation Authority

Town of Caledon

Ecometrix Incorporated

Canadian WildlifeService

Service canadiende la faune

EnvironmentCanada

EnvironnementCanada

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Adapting To Climate Change In Coastal EnvironmentsMr. Peter Nimmrichter, P.Eng.AMEC Earth and Environmental, Mississauga, Ontario

Thank you …