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Adapting To Climate Change Impacts On The Great Lakes Watershed Knowledge Gaps, Barriers And Priority Research Needs Graeme Spiers C-CIARN Ontario Acknowledgements: Elizabeth Bamberger, Al Douglas, C-CIARN Ontario Bano Mehdi, C-CIARN Water Resources, McGill University Kathryn Parlee, C-CIARN Coastal Zones

Adapting To Climate Change Impacts On The Great Lakes W ... · Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (M e torlg ic aS vf C n d, E m)0 500 3000

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Adapting To Climate Change Impacts On The Great Lakes Watershed

Knowledge Gaps, Barriers And Priority Research Needs

Graeme SpiersC-CIARN Ontario

Acknowledgements: • Elizabeth Bamberger, Al Douglas, C-CIARN Ontario• Bano Mehdi, C-CIARN Water Resources, McGill University• Kathryn Parlee, C-CIARN Coastal Zones

1. Science Behind Climate Change

2. Impacts (Case Studies)

3. Adaptation Mechanisms

4. Current Research Examples

5. Knowledge Gaps/Research Priorities

6. The C-CIARN Network

OutlineOutline

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Source: IPCC(2001)

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Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)

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0

500

3000 km

2010-2030 with respect to 1975-1995

2040-2060 with respect to 1975-1995

2080-2100 with respect to 1975-1995

0

2

4

3

1

Global Temperature Change (degrees C)

1900 2000 2100 2200

Year

BaselineStabilized at 750 ppm

Stabilized at 550 ppm

Kyoto������

��������

�����

��������������� ��������������� ����������������������������� ����������������������������

Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model

Little change in totalsummer precipitation;change in extremes ?

Increased evaporation= droughts

Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2010-2030Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model

Some increased winterprecipitation over Ontar ioMore rain – less snow

Lake Erie Water Level, 1918-1998

173.00

173.20

173.40

173.60

173.80

174.00

174.20

174.40

174.60

174.80

175.00

1918 1938 1958 1978 1998

metres

Lake levels have varied in past.

Lakes Michigan-

Huron

174

175

176

177

X

X

Lake Ontario

72.5

73.5

74.5

75.5

Great Lakes Water Levels Current & Projected Ranges

X Average, 1918-1998

X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)

172

173

174

175

X

Lake Erie

X

182.5 Lake

Superior

183

183.5

184

X

X

1 metre dropin lake level

possible

X

X

Source: NRCan

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Lower lake levels have important impacts, including:

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•Local problem•Regional problem•Water treatment complications

Reduced flows: •Questionable drinking water quality•Demand for drinking water

LOSS OF WETLANDS AND CLIMATE

Loss of Original Wetland Area 1800-1982 and 2800 Corn Heat Unit (CHU)

THE CONSERVATION CHALLENGE:

endemicrare

The disappearance of wetlands pose a significant threat to fish and waterfowl. Duck numbers are projected to decline from 19 to

39% by the 2030s.

Water management seeks to retain the seasonal discharge peak, and damp out the within-year variability in discharge.

This changes the pattern of flooding to the flood plain, and itseffects on wetland biota have been little studied

Pike spawn in early springon flooded wetlands.

Seasonal discharge pattern and its importance for wetlandsSeasonal discharge pattern and its importance for wetlands

J. Rassmussen, 2002

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Essex Region Conservation Authority

Adaptive Mechanisms

�Dozens of major dredging projects in harbours/marina

�Pressures for buildings in hazard areas

�Waterfront encroachments, farming of “wetlands”

�Pressure to relax protection standards

�Enforcement challenges – buildings, wetlands, dredging…

�Education/information

Low water levels would result in exposure of harbour wharves and shoreline infrastructure, increasing the risk of dry rot. This could mean millions of dollars to

local port authorities in reconstruction costs.

Addressing Climate Change: Addressing Climate Change: Mitigation and AdaptationMitigation and Adaptation

Climate Changeincluding variability

Impactsautonomous adaptation

Responses

Mitigationvia GHG sources

and sinksPlanned

Adaptation

Global emissions (GHGs)

Atmospheric concentrations

Global climate change

Regional climate change

Changes in extreme events

Impacts on people & ecosystems

Adaptation

MovingMoving TowardsTowards AdaptationAdaptation

• Accepting the loss

– Share the loss

– Bear the loss

• Prevent the effects, avoid the impacts

– Non structural approaches

– Structural approaches

• Changing uses and/or locations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Sec

chi D

epth

(m

)

Bell Lake

George Lake

O.S.A Lake

Nellie Lake

Increasing Water Clarity in Lakes

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Temperature (oC)

Dep

th (m

)

Aug. 13, 1986

Aug. 10, 1976

Aug. 17, 1977

Aug. 7, 2001

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AfterBefore

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� ������� ��� ������ ������� ��� �����epi epi

hypo

hypo

Knowledge Gaps/Research Priorities

• Assess sensitivity and response of Great Lake ecosystems to climate (extreme events, variability)

• Determine whether pan evaporation is decreasing or increasing and how this will affect the hydrological cycle in the Great Lakes region

• Better understand the relationships among extreme events, navigation and safety issues (emergency preparedness

Knowledge Gaps/Research Priorities

• Improved information and scientific understanding of water level changes

• Easily accessible, accurate, high resolution maps of coastal and inshore topography

• Integrated maps of physical, biological, socio-economic factors

• Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Mapping

• More information on adaptation options and decision-making process

• Effective Education and outreach

Agriculture (U. of Guelph)

Fisheries (DFO Nanaimo)

Health (HC Ottawa)

Forest (CFS Edmonton)

Coastal Zone(BIO Dartmouth)

Landscape Hazards (GSC Ottawa)Water Resources

(McGill U., Montreal)

Quebec (Ouranos, Montreal)

Atlantic (Dalhousie U, Halifax)

British Columbia(UBC, Vancouver)

Ontario (Laurentian University)

Prairies (U. of Regina)

North (Yukon College, Whitehorse)

YukonNWTNunavut

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National C-CIARN Coordinating Office

Sectors Regions

Advisory Comm.

Prov/Terragencies

Universities

Communities

NGOs Private Sector

Federal Depts.

$500,000 over 5 yrs. Through the Federal Impacts and Adaptation Research Program

C-CIARN Mission

The National, Regional and SectoralC-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues.