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Adapting To Climate Change Impacts On The Great Lakes Watershed
Knowledge Gaps, Barriers And Priority Research Needs
Graeme SpiersC-CIARN Ontario
Acknowledgements: • Elizabeth Bamberger, Al Douglas, C-CIARN Ontario• Bano Mehdi, C-CIARN Water Resources, McGill University• Kathryn Parlee, C-CIARN Coastal Zones
1. Science Behind Climate Change
2. Impacts (Case Studies)
3. Adaptation Mechanisms
4. Current Research Examples
5. Knowledge Gaps/Research Priorities
6. The C-CIARN Network
OutlineOutline
Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)
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0
500
3000 km
2010-2030 with respect to 1975-1995
2040-2060 with respect to 1975-1995
2080-2100 with respect to 1975-1995
0
2
4
3
1
Global Temperature Change (degrees C)
1900 2000 2100 2200
Year
BaselineStabilized at 750 ppm
Stabilized at 550 ppm
Kyoto������
��������
�����
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Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model
Little change in totalsummer precipitation;change in extremes ?
Increased evaporation= droughts
Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2010-2030Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model
Some increased winterprecipitation over Ontar ioMore rain – less snow
Lake Erie Water Level, 1918-1998
173.00
173.20
173.40
173.60
173.80
174.00
174.20
174.40
174.60
174.80
175.00
1918 1938 1958 1978 1998
metres
Lake levels have varied in past.
Lakes Michigan-
Huron
174
175
176
177
X
X
Lake Ontario
72.5
73.5
74.5
75.5
Great Lakes Water Levels Current & Projected Ranges
X Average, 1918-1998
X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)
172
173
174
175
X
Lake Erie
X
182.5 Lake
Superior
183
183.5
184
X
X
1 metre dropin lake level
possible
X
X
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Lower lake levels have important impacts, including:
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•Local problem•Regional problem•Water treatment complications
Reduced flows: •Questionable drinking water quality•Demand for drinking water
LOSS OF WETLANDS AND CLIMATE
Loss of Original Wetland Area 1800-1982 and 2800 Corn Heat Unit (CHU)
THE CONSERVATION CHALLENGE:
endemicrare
The disappearance of wetlands pose a significant threat to fish and waterfowl. Duck numbers are projected to decline from 19 to
39% by the 2030s.
Water management seeks to retain the seasonal discharge peak, and damp out the within-year variability in discharge.
This changes the pattern of flooding to the flood plain, and itseffects on wetland biota have been little studied
Pike spawn in early springon flooded wetlands.
Seasonal discharge pattern and its importance for wetlandsSeasonal discharge pattern and its importance for wetlands
J. Rassmussen, 2002
Essex Region Conservation Authority
Adaptive Mechanisms
�Dozens of major dredging projects in harbours/marina
�Pressures for buildings in hazard areas
�Waterfront encroachments, farming of “wetlands”
�Pressure to relax protection standards
�Enforcement challenges – buildings, wetlands, dredging…
�Education/information
Low water levels would result in exposure of harbour wharves and shoreline infrastructure, increasing the risk of dry rot. This could mean millions of dollars to
local port authorities in reconstruction costs.
Addressing Climate Change: Addressing Climate Change: Mitigation and AdaptationMitigation and Adaptation
Climate Changeincluding variability
Impactsautonomous adaptation
Responses
Mitigationvia GHG sources
and sinksPlanned
Adaptation
Global emissions (GHGs)
Atmospheric concentrations
Global climate change
Regional climate change
Changes in extreme events
Impacts on people & ecosystems
Adaptation
MovingMoving TowardsTowards AdaptationAdaptation
• Accepting the loss
– Share the loss
– Bear the loss
• Prevent the effects, avoid the impacts
– Non structural approaches
– Structural approaches
• Changing uses and/or locations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Sec
chi D
epth
(m
)
Bell Lake
George Lake
O.S.A Lake
Nellie Lake
Increasing Water Clarity in Lakes
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Temperature (oC)
Dep
th (m
)
Aug. 13, 1986
Aug. 10, 1976
Aug. 17, 1977
Aug. 7, 2001
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AfterBefore
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� ������� ��� ������ ������� ��� �����epi epi
hypo
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Knowledge Gaps/Research Priorities
• Assess sensitivity and response of Great Lake ecosystems to climate (extreme events, variability)
• Determine whether pan evaporation is decreasing or increasing and how this will affect the hydrological cycle in the Great Lakes region
• Better understand the relationships among extreme events, navigation and safety issues (emergency preparedness
Knowledge Gaps/Research Priorities
• Improved information and scientific understanding of water level changes
• Easily accessible, accurate, high resolution maps of coastal and inshore topography
• Integrated maps of physical, biological, socio-economic factors
• Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Mapping
• More information on adaptation options and decision-making process
• Effective Education and outreach
•
Agriculture (U. of Guelph)
Fisheries (DFO Nanaimo)
Health (HC Ottawa)
Forest (CFS Edmonton)
Coastal Zone(BIO Dartmouth)
Landscape Hazards (GSC Ottawa)Water Resources
(McGill U., Montreal)
Quebec (Ouranos, Montreal)
Atlantic (Dalhousie U, Halifax)
British Columbia(UBC, Vancouver)
Ontario (Laurentian University)
Prairies (U. of Regina)
North (Yukon College, Whitehorse)
YukonNWTNunavut
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National C-CIARN Coordinating Office
Sectors Regions
Advisory Comm.
Prov/Terragencies
Universities
Communities
NGOs Private Sector
Federal Depts.
$500,000 over 5 yrs. Through the Federal Impacts and Adaptation Research Program
C-CIARN Mission
The National, Regional and SectoralC-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues.