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Adapting the citySafeguarding Communities
• All Greater Manchester neighbourhoods will be
affected by a changing climate.
• Some more affected by others: vulnerable communities disproportionally.
• Consequences of both a changing climate locally and a changing climate elsewhere.
• Likely impacts include; floods & drought; health & wellbeing at home and work, disruption, supply and security of services.
• Long term change: short term action.
Dr Gina Cavan Summary of Ecocities Research
Dr Kate Ardern Health & Wellbeing
Dr Angela Coulton Food Security and Supply
Tony Hothersall Green Infrastructure
Will Horsfall Flood Management
Dave Morgan Case Study: Broughton Community Trust
Summary of Ecocities Research
Dr Gina Cavan
Impacts of weather & climate on people and communities Floods (55%), storms (14%), cold (12%) and heat (7%) have the
greatest consequences on health & wellbeing in GM Whilst consequences for heath and wellbeing due to cold are
likely to decrease, flooding and heat consequences are likely to increase
020406080
100120140160 Frequency of climate events per time period
2001-2009
1971-2000
1961-1990
1930-1960
Type of event
No
. o
f cl
imat
e ev
ents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Climate events + health & wellbeing
Per
cen
tag
e
Projected increase in climate hazardsE.g. Heatwaves & flooding
Vulnerability of people & communities to climate change
• People have different capacity to deal with hazards
• So therefore not everyone is affected to the same extent
• Coping capacity is dependant on:• Access to information – social networks; language
• Ability to prepare for flooding / heat – resources e.g. insurance
• Capacity to act in the case of emergency – knowledge; ability
• Ability to recover after flooding – resources; physical & mental strength
Spatial distribution of vulnerability
• Four principal groups
• High scores of poverty and diversity components concentrated around urban centres
• High scores of children component located in sub- and peri-urban areas
• High scores of old age component more scattered distribution across suburban areas
Poverty & poor health
Diverse, transient communities
High percentage Elderly
Families with children
Vulnerable communities are more at risk from hazards
Correlations between vulnerability and surface water flooding
Aspects of vulnerability of communities and the intensity of the urban heat island
Principal components
All areas susceptible to flooding
High susceptibility
PC1: Poverty 0.056* Ns
PC2: Diversity 0.139*** -0.234***
PC3: Children -0.099*** -0.059*
PC4: Old age -0.111*** Ns
UHI INTENSITY
PR
OP
OR
TIO
N O
F C
HIL
DR
EN
DIV
ER
SIT
Y O
F C
OM
MU
NIT
IES
UHI INTENSITY
Climate hazards, housing and tenure
Correlations between tenure and UHI intensity / tenure and flooding
Factors enhancing vulnerability e.g. housing and tenure
Percentage of LSOA in flood risk area
Tenure
Owner-occupied
Social rented
Private rented
Flood Zone 2 ns ns ns
Flood Zone 2 ns ns ns
Surface flood >0.1m
-0.140*** 0.095*** 0.181***
Surface flood >1.0m 0.071** ns -0.068**
UHI INTENSITY
TE
NU
RE
Factors that reduce risk
Local scale adaptation responses
E.g. Responses that address the physical environment
Summary: Key messages• Climate change hazards affect people and communities in
Greater Manchester
• Heat waves & flooding events are likely to increase in the future
• Spatial distribution of vulnerability and reasons for vulnerability varies
• Poor & diverse communities are the most exposed to risks (where risk is a function of location, vulnerability, land cover, housing, etc.)
• Adaptation requires actions e.g. physical environment, community development, social infrastructure, green infrastructure…
Further information
EcoCities reports:
• Surface water flooding risk to urban communities
• Heat and social vulnerability in Greater Manchester
• Buildings and flooding in Greater Manchester
• Greater Manchester Local Climate Impacts Profile
Spatial portal http://www.ppgis.manchester.ac.uk/ecocities/
Health & WellbeingDr Kate Ardern
• Contaminationpathways• Transmission
dynamics• Agroecosyste
ms,hydrology• Socioeconomi
cs,demographics
Climate change connects to many health outcomesSome expected impacts will be beneficial but most will be adverse. Expectations are mainly for changes in frequency or severity of familiar health risks
Health effects•Temperature-related illness and death•Extreme weather- related health effects•Air pollution-related health effects•Water and food-borne diseases•Vector-borne and rodent- borne diseases•Effects of food and water shortages•Effects of population displacement
CLIMATECHANGE
Human exposures
Regional weatherchanges• Heat waves• Extreme weather• Temperature• Precipitation
Based on Patz et al, 2000
Modulating influences
How does climate change affect health?
Climate change undermines the environmental determinants of healthWithout effective responses, climate change will compromise:
Water quality and quantity: Contributing to a doubling of people living in water-stressed basins by 2050.
Food security: In some African countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture may halve by 2020.
Control of infectious disease: Increasing population at risk of malaria in Africa by 170 million by 2030, and at risk of dengue by 2 billion by 2080s.
Protection from disasters: Increasing exposure to coastal flooding by a factor of 10, and land area in extreme drought by a factor of 10-30.
How does climate change affect health?
The time is now
3,500 died prematurely as a result of Europe’s heat wave in 2003
Temperatures throughout Europe continued above normal, as France reported as many as 3,000 deaths due to the heatDifference from normal temperatures Aug 3 to Aug 9 2003
Deadly heat wave holds firm in Europe
Source: Climate prediction centre. NOAA
What affects infection/health risks in a drought period?Risk of cryptosporidiosis
Lack of dilution of sewage effluent
Opening up of rapid transmission routes between surface and groundwater through low water table
Heavy rainfall after the drought providing a bolus of contamination
Emergency measures
Little evidence
Changes in behaviour
Washing – scabies, shigellosis
Scalding
Responses to boil water advice
Diagram available at Public Health Agency of Canada website {Accessed 3th October 2009}
Flourishing Environment
Vibrant and Just Society
Prosperous Economy
Supportive social networks and cultural valuesSound education and high literacy rates
Healthy ecosystemsSupportive built environments
Reduced impact of disease and injuryIncreased emergency preparedness and responseReduced pressure on the health care system
Healthy Environments
Strong Public Health
Capacity
Healthy & Sustainable
Communities
Environmental InequalitiesFig 10 Populations living in areas with, in relative terms, the least favourable environmental conditions, 2001-6
Deaths from circulatory disease
Green SpaceGreener living environments: lower health inequalities,
England
Source: Mitchell & Popham, Lancet 2008
Income group 4 is most deprived
Housing• EWDs are almost three times higher in the coldest
quarter of housing than in the warmest quarter (21.5% of all EWDs are attributable to the coldest quarter of housing, because of it being colder than other housing).
• Children living in cold homes are more than twice as likely to suffer from a variety of respiratory problems than children living in warm homes.
• Mental health is negatively affected by fuel poverty and cold housing for any age group.
• More than 1 in 4 adolescents living in cold housing are at risk of multiple mental health problems compared to 1 in 20 adolescents who have always lived in warm housing.
• Cold housing increases the level of minor illnesses such as colds and flu and exacerbates existing conditions such as arthritis and rheumatism.
Why the NHS? adapt and mitigate
Measuring and understanding the NHS (England) Carbon footprint
18 m tonnes carbon dioxide per annum Energy: heating, lighting, hot water = 22%
Travel: patients, staff, visitors = 18%
Procurement: supply chain activities of companies producing goods and services = 60%
Waste
Increasingly costly, environmentally and financially
Budget
Annual budget > £90 billion
Spends about £17 billion per year on goods & services
Contributes up to 10% of every regional GDP
Largest employer and estate in Europe
Employs about 1.3 millionLargest estate in EuropeEmploys 5% of UK workforce
www.sdu.nhs.uk
Potential reductions
High quality healthcare…
…within financial and environmental limits
Business resilience, emergency preparedness, medium term strategy
Sound business sense with savings reinvested
into patient care
Exemplar local employer and contributor to local economy
Health system strengthening: Definition of an essential public health package Most health risks in next 20-30 years could be averted through:
• Comprehensive assessments of climate risks to health and health systems;
• Integrated environment and health surveillance;
• Delivery of preventive and curative interventions for identified climate-sensitive public health concerns;
• Preparedness and response to the public health consequences of extreme weather events;
• Applied research; and
• Strengthening of human and institutional capacities and inter-sectoral coordination.What has been done? Health system strengthening
Food Security and SupplyDr Angela Coulton
Food Security
• UK and global pressures on the food system
• City perspectives and action on food
• Developing Manchester’s response
A Perfect Storm? Pressures on the UK Food System• Climate change scenarios of 2-4 degrees by 2050–
significant impacts on agricultural productivity in UK and worldwide.
• Increasingly resource intensive diets in developing countries
• Complex, energy-intensive UK food system, heavily reliant on just-in-time delivery, mainly by road
• Food prices on the rise after decades of decline – affordability of fresh, healthy food an issue for increasing number of households
• Longstanding lack of connectivity between urban communities and food production
UK food security policy
UK policy and research focused on:
• Global trade
• Supporting farmers
• Citizens as “consumers”
Foresight.The Future of Food and Farming (2011)
The role of cities in food security
• Little consideration of the role of cities in food policy
• Urban food planning a neglected but emerging area
• Leading Sustainable Food Cities: Toronto, Malmo, New York, Manchester?
Manchester’s Food security
• Availability – Extreme weather risks to supply, limited range of ways to access fresh, healthy food
• Affordability – Low income households spend higher % of income on food
• Connectivity – Health, environment and economy linkages, urban/rural connectivity, urban production.
What is Green Infrastructure?Green infrastructure is a term used to refer to the living network of green spaces, water and other environmental features in both urban and rural areas. It is often used in an urban context to cover benefits provided by trees, parks, gardens, road verges, allotments, cemeteries, woodlands, rivers and wetlands.
Green infrastructure is also relevant in a rural context, where it might refer to the use of farmland, woodland, wetlands or other natural
features to provide services such as flood protection, carbon storage or water purification. Green infrastructure maintains critical ecological links between town and country.
Around the country local partnerships are seeking to use green infrastructure to drive economic growth and regeneration and improve public health, wellbeing and quality of life. It can also support biodiversity and the functioning of natural systems such as rivers and flood plains and help reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Natural Environment White Paper 2011
Why is Green Infrastructure important?GI provides benefits through its function/services;
Economic Benefits of
Green Infrastruct
ure
Climate Change Adaptation &
MitigationFlood Alleviation
and Water Management
Quality of Place
Health and Well-being
Economic Growth and InvestmentLand and
Property Values
Labour Productivity
Products from the Land
Land and Biodiversity
Recreation and Leisure
Tourism
Likely Impacts of Climate Change on GI
• Biodiversity – wildfires, drought, alterations to season length, pressure on species at edge of their range, invasives/pests and diseases
• Green space/public realm – longer growing seasons, stressed through drought/flooding/heat, greater public use and therefore cost and benefits!
• Trees and Woodlands – pests, diseases, windthrow (“unseasonal” wet and windy conditions), stress on some existing species with increased productivity for others .e.g more beech less oak?
• Mosslands – drying out and wildfires, species loss and increased use causing erosion, loss of habitat and release of stored carbon
How can we adapt to these impacts?
• Biodiversity – Enhance networks to enable species migration…..make landscapes more permeable for species movement-corridors and stepping stones
• Green space – adjust species and alter management (e.g use drought resistant/deep rooted species and then water if needed), may need more hard surfaces for extra use but retain permeability
• Street trees – use/develop drought and pest resistant varieties….. planting technique to cope with both drought and excess water conditions!
• Woodlands – create linkages between woods, enlarge, use continuous forestry cover and adjust species mix if needed
• Mosslands – rewet where possible and retain seasonal water………reduce other impacts (e.g scrub/invasives)
Green Infrastructure’s role in helping us adapt• Managing high temperatures…..increasing green cover by 10%
could keep surface temperatures to current level until 2100? Why……..2003 heat wave in Europe claimed 52,000 lives.
• Managing surface water……..10% increase in green cover could reduce runoff in extreme events by 14%....SUDS. Retention of water supply e.g SCAMP
• Managing flooding………use GI for flood basin protection…..big SUDS
• Reducing soil erosion……use GI to preserve fertility and reducing siltation
• Managing visitor pressure……..meet demand for outdoor leisure closer to home…. less travel with a more attractive and healthier environment
Also mitigation benefits…………………
GI in Greater Manchester
• GMGI Framework and action plan……and GI planning at different levels
• Red Rose and Pennine Edge Forest Partnerships……long established
• Physical delivery by wide range of organisations…….. Mossland restoration, river valleys, urban green spaces, Newlands, Green Streets, green roofs,
• Strengthening the knowledge base………GRaBS, EcoCities, i-trees, GM Tree Audit and potential valuation of GM’s GI/Ecosystem services?
• Securing investment………for both GI enhancement and management
• Long term time horizon but action needed now……e.g need to plant street trees now to cool our towns and cities in 20 years time!
www.ginw.co.uk/climatechange/
Flood Management
Will Horsfall Salford City Council
Lower Broughton, Salford 1946
Lower Broughton, Salford 1946
Importance of flooding to Salford
1866 – flooding of 800 ha of land covered by crowded tenements, houses and factories
1946 – flooding of 243 ha of land, 5000 residential properties and 300 industrial properties
Aerial view of Littleton Road Flood Storage Basin
January 2008
Littleton Road Storage Basin put into action for first time, flooding of Castle Irwell Playing Fields, Lowry Hotel concourse, Mark Addy Pub and towpaths next to Ordsall Riverside Area
Flood basin in action – January 2008
Lowry Hotel January 2008
Lowry Hotel January 2008
Mark Addy, Salford January 2008
2007 Floods – M50
2007 Floods
Pitt Review – New role for Councils
• Councils should lead on management of local flood risk
• Build partnerships with relevant bodies
• Mapping flood risk management and drainage assets
• Duty on relevant bodies to share information on flooding
Pitt Review – now law
2009 Flood Risk Regulations
2010 Floods and Water Management Act
Additional DEFRA Flood Risk Management Funding
Lead Local Flood Risk Authority
Three objectives for the Salford Strategic Flood Forum:
• To provide leadership and direction for the Council’s flood related work programme in line with the 2010 Floods and Water Management Act and 2009 Flood Risk Regulations
• To ensure that the various flood and water related work strands are properly co-ordinated
• To review and report on progress with the implementation of new duties as Lead Local Flood Risk Authority recommendations and to take action accordingly
AGMA joint approach to flood risk
• Co-ordinated approach to Strategic Flood Risk Assessments
• Joint AGMA Surface Water Management Plan - £500k
• Joint approach to Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment
• AGMA Flood Risk Management Capacity Study
•New AGMA Flood Risk Management Board
2005 Lower Broughton Flood Risk Assessment
Flood Risk and Development Planning Guidance
Emergency Planning
• Salford Flood Response Group established 2006
• Became a multi agency group following completion on the GM Risk Register
• Customer contact centre project
Resilience Pilot Project
•Need to consider existing as well as new development
• Pilot project – Salford City Council, Environment Agency & Salford University
• Incentives for householders
• Spike Island and Lower Kersal Climate Change Action Plan
Case Study: Broughton Community Trust
Dave Morgan
Communities living Sustainably
• A five year programme aimed at changing behaviours
• Community-led
• Partnership-based (Community, Public, Private)
• Big Lottery Funded
• Groundwork Trust Mediated
• 270 Expressions of Interest
• 30 through to second round
• 10 will get up to £1million
Kersal Vale and Spike Island Climate Action Project
2008-10 4 key themes
• Flood Resistance• Energy Efficiency• Greening the Neighbourhood• Education Programmes (waste and transport)
Partners : Chalk NDC, Salford Council, Salford University, Salix Homes, Environment Agency, etc
Kersal Vale and Spike Island Climate Action Project
Very successful but :
“It is evident that the residents…face multiple deprivation….if this project is to have success….it needs to understand these issues and work with other local agencies….so that climate change becomes embedded into service delivery”
• Levels of successful engagement relatively limited
• Active participation fell short of targets set
• Many residents not interested in climate change
• Only limited evidence that projects are affecting change in behaviour
Communities living Sustainably
• People resent being told what to do
• They don’t like being preached at
• They are pre-occupied with other complex issues
• They suspect a “do as I say, not as I do” attitude
Communities living Sustainably
The Broughton Trust Perspective : What works?
• Employing local people as champions and influencers
• Creating training opportunities linked to jobs
• Being there whatever and whenever
• Treating people with respect
• Starting from where residents are ie inside the community
Communities living Sustainably
The Broughton Trust Perspective : Evidence
• Lowest participation rate in adult learning in the city 2003
• Highest participation rate in adult learning in the city 2012
• Waiting lists in most subject areas, vocational and non-vocational
• Involving 1 in 40 of the East Salford’s population of around 40000
• Everything linked through simple pathways
• Barriers to Learning addressed (eg childcare)
• Pathways leading to employment and financial autonomy
Communities living Sustainably
What we want to do over five years :
• Employ Community Green Champions• Fund community-based, community-led projects• Set up a Co-op for food growing and amenity
management• Co-fund Partnership projects• Organise a Valley Volunteering Programme• Promote two Big Green Valley Festivals
The Broughton Trust
Humphrey Booth Centre
Heath Avenue
Lower Broughton
Salford
M7 1NY
0161 831 9807
www.thebroughtontrust.org.uk
Charity No. 1089038
Adapting the city
