Adaptation to Climate Change

Doug FischerCSUN Department of Geography

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/a/ae/Global_Warming_Predictions _Map.jpg

IPCC Map

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What’s driving warming?

Current knowledge

about future impacts

• Impacts depend on GHG emissions

• Different scenarios reflect assumptions about population, energy, development pathways http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/

Image:Carbon_Dioxide_Emissions_Scenarios_png

Two things:

• Large, prompt emissions reductions

• Adaptation & re-engineering civilization

Pacala & Socolow, 2007

What will it take to avoid the worst

consequences of global climate change?

BAU = business as usualWRE500 = stabilized at 500ppm CO2

Emission reductions• Each wedge represents 25 gigatons of Carbon over

next 50 years - we need at least seven...

• Increase average fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg.

• Halve annual miles driven for 2 billion cars

• Increase ethanol production 100 times above current US levels (using 1/6 of world crop land)

• Double global nuclear power generation

• Increase solar power 700 times (size of Mass.)

Pacala & Socolow, 2007

Adaptations needed forMajor impacts

• Reduced agricultural yields most places, particularly poor countries, global concern

• Reduced water supply

• Increased extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, cyclones, floods)

• Sea level rise

• Increasing possibilities of abrupt changes

Revamp global agriculture

Drought-sensitive crops now often fail in some traditional planting areashttps://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/news_releases/2007/NR-07-03-09p.html

Warmer and wetter weather are allowing pests to spread to new areas

http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/pub811/images/9sunf1.jpg

Massive redevelopment

of water supplies• Over a billion people

rely on water from rapidly shrinking glaciers and seasonal snow packs

Changes in the Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, between 1978 (a) and 2002 (b) - Barnett et al. 2005 - photo L. Thompson

Massive redevelopment of water supplies

Empty Burrendong Dam, Australia http://www.harlow.net.au/barry/Diary/pages/Bathurst.htm

Desalination plant proposed for Huntington Beach

http://www.ci.huntington-beach.ca.us/Business/Redevelopment/southeast_coast_projects.cfm

Massive redevelopment of water supplies

Projected changes in annual runoff for 2090’s relative to 1980-1999. Median of 12 climate models (with at least 66% agreement on direction of change). Hatched areas are where 90% of models agree on direction of change. Ignores changes in seasonality.http://www.ipcc.ch

Massive development and relief aid to poor areas

Food aid to Indonesiahttp://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2006/compassion.html

European Commision water project in Iraqhttp://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/

Budgeting for many more refugee crises

Refugees in Korea http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/battles/korea/images/refugees.jpg

Refugees from drought in Africa http://library.marist.edu/faculty-web-pages/morreale/RMProjects/fall_2006/

Gannon/gannon-index.html

Many flood control projects

New Orleanshttp://www.beloblog.com/KGW_Blogs/weather/archives/2007/08/

A Dutch "amphibious house"http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18480769

Thames barrierhttp://www.mech.uwa.edu.au/

~kamy/Thames%20Barrier.htm

Relocation of coastal communities

Shishmaref Alaskahttp://www.shishmaref relocation.com

South Pacific island of Kiribatihttp://www.greenpeace.org/international/photosvideos/photos/pita-meanke-of-betio-village

Dhaka, Capitol of Bangladeshhttp://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/climate-and-floods.html

Relocation of coastal communities

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Louisiana_Sea_Level_Risks_png

SF Bay Area (showing 1m of sea level rise)http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=43.3251,-101.6015&z=13&m=7

Sustainable Development

Low-carbon power in Boliviahttp://journals.worldnomads.com/willlou/gallery/

716/14161.aspx

Indigenous electrification in Malawihttp://whiteafrican.com/?p=656

Sustainable Development

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:GHG_intensity_2000.svg

Societal Adaptation• Revamp global agriculture

• Massive redevelopment of water supplies

• Massive development aid and food aid for poorest countries, which will be hit hardest

• Budgeting for many more refugee crises

• Many local flood control projects

• Relocation of coastal communities

• Sustainable development - elusive so far...

What can I do?• Write your representatives

(www.house.gov, www.senate.gov, www.leginfo.ca.gov)

• Advocacy groups (e.g., Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Union of Concerned Scientists etc.)

• Talk to your friends, family and coworkers about climate change

• Commit to reducing your own emissions, encourage others to do so

US Capitol Buildingwww.photohome.com

CA Capitol Buildingwww.answers.com

Lowering personal emissions

• Reduce, Reuse, Recycle

• Food: Eat more local food & less meat

• Drive less

• Only buy Energy-Star appliances and light bulbs

• Many suggestions online: climatechange.net

• Offset remaining emissions with carbon credits

Conclusions• Massive emissions reductions alone will

no longer suffice to maintain the climate we knew in the 20th century

• Adaptation to changing climate

• presents rapidly moving targets

• will be need to be massive, affecting all aspects of the global economy

• will require appropriate government incentives to accelerate innovation