Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Case study of Bangladesh Dr. Saleemul Huq Director Climate Change Programme International Institute

Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A

Case study of Bangladesh

Dr. Saleemul Huq

Director

Climate Change Programme

International Institute for Environment and Development, London, United Kingdom

Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Study

• Carried out in 2000 by Bangladeshi and international team

• Based on previous work done on assessing vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts

• Two climate change and sea level scenarios chosen for 2030 and 2050

Objectives of the study

• What are the expected climate changes?• What are the consequences for Bangladesh?• For what climate change-induced impacts is

Bangladesh most vulnerable?• How can the potential effects of climate

change be factored into policy making, and what adaptation measures for Bangladesh are most feasible?

Sectors chosen

• Coastal resources

• Fresh Water resources

• Agriculture

• Human health

• Ecosystem and biodiversity

Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

Geography Most elevations under 10m

Climate Subject to severe natural disasters

Population 1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density

Economy One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370

Education Literacy rate of 53%

Human Health

Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished

Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

Geography Most elevations under 10m

Climate Subject to severe natural disasters

Population 1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density

Economy One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370

Education Literacy rate of 53%

Human Health

Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished

Climate Change Scenarios

Year Sea Level Rise (cm)

Temperature Increase (ºC)

Precipitation Fluctuation Compared to 1990 (%)

2030 30 +0.7 in monsoon; +1.3 in winter

-3 in winter; + 11 in monsoon

2050 50 +1.1 in monsoon; +1.8 in winter

-37 in winter; + 28 in monsoon

Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Drainage Congestion in Coastal Areas

Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Increasing infrastructure drainage capacity

Some bridges and culverts are poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance

Tidal basins New concept: early results are promising

Institutional Adaptations

Proper O&M arrangements, including establishment of local water management

Poor institutional framework. Local government needs to be involved

Design criteria for drainage capacity infrastructure

Poorly designed and implemented. May be ineffective in coastal zones

Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Salinization in Coastal Areas



Resuscitation of river networks Could be meaningful in short-term, especially in south-west

Surface water flow from upstream e.g. by diversion or withdrawal from rivers

Capital intensive, but cross-dams could prevent saline water intrusion. Process should include EIA/SIA


Operation of sluices and regulators Poor existing management

Water saving techniques Not applied at maximum capacity. Could pose socio-economic problems to farmers

Adaptation Measures to Improve Morphological Dynamics in Coastal Areas



Mangrove greenbelts Started. Needs re-evaluation and continuation

Cross dams Needs-assessment necessary for new dams. Adverse effects elsewhere. Could be expensive


Protection of mangroves and coastal wetlands

Evaluation of activities needed, especially regarding maximizing social benefits

Land tenure laws Evaluation needed

Adaptation Measures for Disasters in Coastal Areas



Cyclone shelters Already proven. Highly socially acceptable

Mangrove greenbelts Started. Needs evaluation


Forecasting and dissemination Flood and cyclone forecasting should be location specific

Involvement of CBOs and volunteers

Should continue

Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Reduced Freshwater Availability

Key Risks and Adaptation Measures

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement


Increasing drainage capacity of infrastructure

Some bridge and culverts poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance

Storage Not evaluated in terms of recharging aquifers


Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning

Not existing

Reduction of water demand Need better policies on extraction, paying for use, promoting efficient use

Adaptation Measures for Freshwater Drainage Congestion




Sufficient road drainage capacity Poorly designed and maintained infrastructure

Controlled sedimentation and Land-fills

New concepts. Need more understanding


Improved drainage criteria infrastructure

Not tried yet

Participatory management of water resources infrastructure

Needs adequate policy reforms

Adaptation Measures to Morphological Dynamics for Freshwater Resources




River training and bank protection Poorly done. Costly, but river bank protection is high priority

Dredging of navigation channels Limited coverage


Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning

Not existing

Improved monitoring and forecast of changes

Needs capacity enhancement

Adaptation Measures to Increased Freshwater Flooding




Elevated land as flood refuge or food shelters

Practiced throughout the country

Flood refuge areas e.g. Dhaka city itself

Needs evaluation


Improved flood warning and forecasting

Proved effective. Needs more cooperation and to be location specific

Evacuation of vulnerable people and valuables

Limited capacity exists. Costly, especially for the very poor

Adaptation Measures in Agriculture

Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement


Improved irrigation efficiency Poor. Needs institutional support

Crop diversification Efforts have met with limited success


Training programmes and dissemination

Dissemination is poor. Activities need enhancing

Research and development of new (salinity and drought resistant) crops

Research needs enhancing

Adaptation Measures in Human Health



Water treatment facilities Low coverage. Poor quality. Needs expanding

Improved sanitation Coverage increasing


Surveillance and monitoring of conditions favourable for disease outbreak

Unsatisfactory. Needs co-ordination with media to issue early warnings

Improve public education, especially in reproductive health

Coverage increasing. Quality needs improvement

Adaptation Measures to Protect Ecosystems and Biodiversity


Integrated ecosystem planning and management

Not yet practiced. Proposed Coastal Zone Development Program could be a vehicle for this

Management of protected areas and 14 ecologically critical areas

Improved understanding needed

Coastal greenbelt Recently started. Promising results

Agro-forestry development Ongoing programs need expansion

Main impacts of climate change

• Drainage congestions due to higher sea levels and and flooding

• Reduced fresh water availability

• Disturbances to morphological processes (mainly in coastal zone)

• Increased intensity of disasters (extreme events)

Methodological Issues Addressed

• Choosing climate change and sea level rise scenarios

• Modelling impacts of chosen climate change scenarios on droughts, floods, cyclones

• Identifying possible adaptations

• Prioritising adaptation actions

Process of study

• Analysis of climate change impacts using scenarios and models

• Identification of most vulnerable sectors• Identification of possible adaptation actions and

measures in each sector• Stakeholder–led prioritisation of adaptation

actions in each sector• Cross-sectoral linkages identified and discussed

with stakeholders

Key findings of the study

• Bangladesh faces grave socio-ecological risks if it fails to adapt to climate change

• Many of the risks are gradual and difficult to differentiate from background variability of climate

• Coastal areas of the country are specially at risk• Adaptation to climate change is fundamentally

linked to sustainable development efforts of the country

Relevance to ongoing policies and programmes

• National Water Policy and Water Management Plan

• Coastal Zone Management Programme

• National Agriculture Development Plan

• National Biodiversity Action Plan

• Sustainable Environmental Management Programme

Impact on Policy makers-1

• Sectoral level– Water Resources– Coastal Resources– Biodiversity– Agriculture– Environment

Impact on Policy makers-2

• National Level– Planning– Finance– Foreign Affairs– Prime Minister’s office

Impacts on Policy makers-3

• International – COP 5, 6 and 7– LDC group– Adaptation issues– COP 8 (Delhi)

Lessons learned

• Technical capacity to do analysis of climate change impacts- Good

• Awareness amongst sectoral planners and policy makers-Reasonable

• Awareness amongst national policy makers-Low

• Strategy for international negotiations-None yet

Documents

Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Case study of Bangladesh Dr. Saleemul Huq Director Climate Change Programme International Institute