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Adaptation of Landuse to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA). Co-ordinated by the Centre for Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture and Forestry (CeTSAF) Georg-August Universität Göttingen Funding: BMZ/GTZ-BEAF Duration: 2008-2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFFAdaptation of Landuse to Climate Adaptation of Landuse to Climate
Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA)(ALUCCSA)
Objectives: ALUCCSA aims to contribute estimating effects of different future climate scenarios for the next 50 years at regional and local scale for Sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso) and their impact on land use systems.
Co-ordinated by the Centre for Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture and Forestry (CeTSAF)Georg-August Universität Göttingen
Funding: BMZ/GTZ-BEAFDuration: 2008-2011
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Project Partners
Georg-August University of Goettingen (GAUG), Germany, (Coordination, Dr. Panferov, Prof. Kleinn, Prof. Mitlöhner, Prof. Schlecht)
World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), Mali (Dr. Kalinganire, Dr. v. Noordwijk)
Environmental and Agricultural Research Institute (INERA), Burkina Faso, (Dr. Mahamadi, Dr. Bayala)
Meteorological Service of Burkina Faso (Mr. Garané)
Centre for Interdisciplinary Research on Africa (CIRA), Germany, (Dr. Hahn-Hadjali)
Subcontractor: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany, (Dr. Kunstmann, Dr. Knoche)
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Agroforestry
Climate change
Project scope
Animal husbandry
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Project thematic structure
Climate Scenarios DownscalingClimate Scenarios Downscaling
LargeLarge--ScaleScale Land Land useuse(Vegetation (Vegetation structurestructure))
SmallSmall--ScaleScale Vegetation Vegetation structurestructure
SVAT, SVAT, WaNuLCASWaNuLCAS
PlantsPlantsphysiologicalphysiologicalparametersparameters
KLIMAKLIMA--RESI (Energie RESI (Energie budgetbudget of of ruminantsruminants))
AnimalAnimal husbandryhusbandry fodderfodderplantsplants and and nutrientnutrientbudgetbudget
ScenariosScenariosScenariosScenarios
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Climate development modelling
SRES climate scenarios A1B and B1
Regional Climate Models:MM5, CLM (≈18 km × 18 km)
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Study areas and spatial approach
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Large scale structures of vegetation
Current work:− Analysis of vegetation data as input for modeling subprojects.− Land use classification, following FAO standards based on inventory results, combined with remote sensing data for modeling with climate modeling results.
Achievements since last year: − Large area forest and land use assessment with many similarities to FAO National Forest monitoring completed in early 2010. − Acquisition of high resolution satellite imagery as reference for up scaling approach.
Objectives: Assessment and analysis of vegetation structure and land use on country scale.
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Small scale structures of vegetation
Objectives: Assessment and analysis of current pasture resources for livestock and prediction of their future development
Current work and future outlook: - Assessment of herbaceous pasture resources- Assessment of ligneous biomass (fodder resource) in 4 core areas- Prediction of future development of important fodder species (Modeling with climate change predictions)
Achievements since last year:- Vegetation types in pastured sites of 4 core study areas (climatic gradient subsahel to southern sudanian zone) are identified and species composition is assessed - Herbaceous biomass of main vegetation types in 4 core areas is assessed at the end of the rainy season
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Animal husbandry
Objectives: Assessment of grazing behaviour and livestock management practices.
Current work and future outlook: − Continued monitoring of grazing and management practices until end of coming rainy season.− Assessment of main fodder species during grazing.
Achievements since last year:− The baseline survey at the six pre-selected research sites was carried out by the PhD Student of livestock group.− Four out of the six sites were maintained for regular monitoring of livestock grazing behaviour and for in-depth analysis of farmers’ livestock management practices.− Fodder species assessment.
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Objectives:To evaluate the adaptation of the species to extreme drought
events and potential of stable isotopes and tree rings for paleoclimatic reconstructions.
Contribution to the Project :Will recommend drought tolerant multipurpose species for resilient agroforesty systems and provide past climate information to understand climate change.
Results of the second year and/or ongoing activities:Ring width, stable isotope and plant water potential measurements and analysis is going on.
Past climatic variation assessment for model verification and plant growth
Stem disc of: Sclerocarya birea
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
δ18O values of Sclerocarya birea showed similar pattern and significant correlation (r = -0.56) with rainfall amount
Preliminary results demonstrate the potential of δ18O in tree rings as climate proxy.
21
22
23
24
25
26200
300
400
500
600
700
800
d18
O
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
Year
Rain
180
Past climatic variation assessment for model verification
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Climate data collection
• Gaoua• Soukouraba• Nobere• Safane• Tougori
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19
.11
.08
14
.12
.08
18
.12
.08
23
.12
.08
28
.12
.08
01
.01
.20
09
06
.01
.20
09
11
.01
.20
09
16
.01
.20
09
20
.01
.20
09
25
.01
.20
09
30
.01
.20
09
03
.02
.20
09
08
.02
.20
09
13
.02
.20
09
17
.02
.20
09
22
.02
.20
09
27
.02
.20
09
04
.03
.20
09
08
.03
.20
09
13
.03
.20
09
18
.03
.20
09
22
.03
.20
09
27
.03
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09
01
.04
.20
09
06
.04
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09
10
.04
.20
09
15
.4.0
9Te
mp
era
ture
in
°C
Nobere Tougouri Safane Soukouraba Gaoua
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Quantifying the effect of shade trees on underlying crops3D Modelling of radiation transfer
3D Modelling of radiation transfer
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
3D-Modelled effect of 2 shade trees on underlying crops
W m-2
0
130
260
390
520
650
5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0
X - A x i s ( m )
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
Y-A
xis(
m)
5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0
X - A x i s ( m )
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
Y-A
xis
(m)
June, clear sunny day June, cloudy day
Black Isoline: min 10% reduction of annual sum of solar radiation due to shade tree
3D Modelling of radiation transfer
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Energy balance of ruminants
Direct radiation
Diffuse radiation Thermal radiation
Wind
Sensible heat
Latent heat
Panting and salivation.Wallowing in water of mud.Mechanical workMiscellaneous heat flows
Metabolic heatMetabolic heatStored heat ?Stored heat ?
Other factors
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Energy balance of ruminants
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
e.g. maize, cassava
or a weed (Imperata)
A Crop
or fruit trees
or woody fallows
e.g. hedge-row trees
A Tree
Nitrogen Water
Light
WaNuLCAS (Water Nutrient and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems)
Estimation of productivity for different AF systemsunder changing climatic conditions.
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
SVAT modeling
Objectives: Find parameterizations for modeling interactions within ecosystems under conditions of changing climate by means of SVAT models like WaNuLCAS.
Achievements since last year:− Permanent plots established for data
collection for the adaptation of WaNuLCAS to local vegetation types.
− Soil samples were taken for analysis.− Assessment on below ground biomass.− Water potential of some key species along climatic gradient going from the south to the north of Burkina Faso were taken.− Tree transpiration and light transmission.
Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change | 2-3.05.2010 | Nairobi
CeTSACeTSAFF
Thank you for your attention!