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Adaptation of agriculture sector in Adaptation of agriculture sector in the Nile Delta at farm levelthe Nile Delta at farm level
Mahmoud Medany, Samar Attaher & Ayman F. Abou-HadidCentral Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC)
The study was a part of the regional assessment of the FP6 y p gproject of:
ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURE IN EUROPEAN REGIONS AT
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK UNDER CLIMATE CHANGEENVIRONMENTAL RISK UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE (ADAGIO)
Agriculture in the Nile Delta
• 2 4% of total area of Egypt2.4% of total area of Egypt.
• 49% of total inhabitant area of Egypt
• 8 Governorates
Agriculture in the Nile Delta …why it's a unique case?
• Has about one half of the total cultivated area (about 4.3 million Feddan).( )• Has 53% of the total population.• More than 65% contribution in the national agricultural production.More than 65% contribution in the national agricultural production.• About 93 % of the total Delta land is "old land“ (clay soil/ heavy- Medium ).• Irrigation source: NileIrrigation source: Nile • Almost fully irrigated (about 9% rainfed) • Surface irrigation systems (50% efficiency)• Surface irrigation systems (50% efficiency).• Mixed crop pattern (field crops- vegetables- fruits)• Total annual cropped area is 150 to 180 % from the total cultivated area• Total annual cropped area is 150 to 180 % from the total cultivated area.• Land acreage per ownership: small to medium (less than 0.4 ha to less than 2 ha).
T h l t diti l/ l l l• Technology: traditional/ low level• Land productivity : High
P d i L M di• Production cost : Low – Medium • Crops productivity : Medium- High • Profitability : Medium- High • Production Risk : Low
Vulnerability analyses concept•Multi-criteria analyses of vulnerability•Multi-criteria analyses of vulnerability.
• Community-based assessment
R t ti i bl d i th il t t t h t i th l bl
P i blC t Pro ariableComponents
• Representative variables used in the pilot assessment to characterize the vulnerable groups:
Proxy variableComponents
1. Climate conditions and observed changes
Proxy variableComponents
1. Land ownership
2. Crop pattern1. Natural resources
2. Soil salinity
3. Water table 3. Agricultural management
2. Crop pattern
3. Corps productivity
4. Irrigation systems4. Extreme weather events
5. Pests & disease
1 P l i d i
management5. Irrigation-water use
6. Fertilizers use1. Population density
2. Human resources
2. Agriculture lobar force
3 Rural population
7. Drainage systems
1.Finance
2 Agriculture production3. Rural population
4. Knowledge capacity 4. Economics & policy capacity
2. Agriculture-production inputs
3. Agri-products quality
4. Marketing limitations
5. Policies conflicts
The Pilot Locations
T lS l NGL iThe size of the survey sample
TotalSample NoGovs.Location
102
41BEHAIRA
North Delta 36DAKAHLIA
276
102North Delta 36DAKAHLIA
25DAMIETTA
10753GHARBIA
Middl D lt 107Middle Delta54SHARKIA
6767KALIOBIASouth Delta
Agroecosystems main features in Delta region
Sothern DeltaMiddel DeltaNorthern Delta
agroecosystem
HeavyMedium HeavyLight MediumSoil HeavyMedium- HeavyLight- MediumSoil
Medium- lowMedium- HighHigh-MediumSoil salinity
Small Large to smallMedium to smallLand ownership
- Low water quality.- Agricultural land reduction due
-Improving irrigation systems -Seasonal water shortage
-High water table.- Turn to aqua culture.
Trends
to urbanization. - Seasonal water shortage.-Low water quality.
- -Policy.-Policy -Financial and investment.limitations y-Immigration from rural to urban.- High population.- Extension service.
y-Immigration from rural to urban.- High population.- Extension service
-Policy.-Extension service.
- Urbanization.
- Poor irrigation systems.- Poor irrigation systems.- Poor irrigation systems.Socio-- Poor drainage systems.-Contradiction of agricultural policies.
- Poor drainage systems.- Shortage in expert labor.- Contradiction of agricultural
- Poor drainage systems.- Shortage in expert labor.- Contradiction of agricultural
economic conditions
policies. policies.
Field crops Vegetable crops Orchards and palms
The Pilot Locations
•Multi-criteria analysesMulti criteria analyses of vulnerability.
• Community-based assessment
• Representative i bl d i hvariables used in the
pilot assessment to characterize the
T lS l NGL iThe size of the survey sample
vulnerable groups:
TotalSample NoGovs.Location
102
41BEHAIRA
North Delta 36DAKAHLIA
276
102North Delta 36DAKAHLIA
25DAMITTA
10753GHARBIA
Middl D lt 107Middle Delta54SHARKIA
6767KALIOBIASouth Delta
Questions about ADAPTATION
1. What are the acceptable options of adaptations at farmers’ level?
2. Insurance and financial systems of adaptation?
3. Land loss fact in North Delta and land alternative dilemma?
The adaptation measures
Based onBased on…
– WP2 results (vulnerability)
P i t di– Previous studies
– Applicants and experts.
The pilot locations of adaptation assessment under WP3
(adaptation) was the same locations of vulnerability
assessment under WP2 with the same case studiesassessment under WP2, with the same case studies.
Adaptation at farmers’ levelThe most efficient justifications- according to farmers’ perception toThe most efficient justifications according to farmers perception to reduce the negative impacts of climate change (wormer and dryer climate) on cultivation systems!
77 %Changing cultivars1
) y
53 %Increasing irrigation requirements250 %Changing sowing dates333 %Ch i tt4 33 %Changing crop pattern431 %Improving drainage systems518 %M dif i l t t ti6 18 %Modifying plant protection programs.615 %Changing the current irrigation systems714 %Changing fertilization requirements8 14 %Changing fertilization requirements.810 %Using compost93 %Cultivate the land one season only10 3 %Cultivate the land one season only.105 %Replace the current fertilizers by soil conditioners.115 %Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.12 5 %Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.123 %Leave the agri-business and find other carrier.13
Adaptation at farmers’ level (Cost Benefit)Cost/ Benefit
Very low
Very highAdaptation Measures
54321 54321
Changing cultivars1
Increasing irrigation requirements2 g g q
Changing sowing dates3
Changing crop pattern4
Improving drainage systems5
Modifying plant protection programs.6
Ch i th t i i ti t7 Changing the current irrigation systems7
Changing fertilization requirements.8
Using compost9 Using compost9
Cultivate the land one season only.10
Replace the current fertilizers by soil conditioners.11
Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.12
Leave the agri-business and find other carrier.13
Adaptation at farmers’ level (Opportunities, Limitations & Risks)
AvailableIm
plemtK
nol
Tec h
PoHu
reso
Infras
Not available butpossible
mentation
time
owledge
evel
h. level
olicies
uman
ources
structure
Not available & impossible
Changing cultivars1
Increasing irrigation requirements2
Changing so ing dates3
5-10
<5
15-20
Changing sowing dates3
Changing crop pattern4
Improving drainage systems5
<5<5
5-10Improving drainage systems
Modifying plant protection programs.6
Changing the current irrigation systems7 10-15
<55 10
Changing fertilization requirements.8
Using compost9
<5
<5
Cultivate the land one season, and left it to rest in the second season.10
Replace the current fertilizers by soil conditioners.11
L th t lti t d l d d t l i l d12 20
10-15
5-10
Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.12
Leave the agri-business and find other carrier.13
>20
>20
Insurance and Financial Resources of Adaptation
Options to overcome the losses in agriculture production due to unfavorable weather conditions in the future & to offer the needed financial resources for adaptation.
42 %The government should handle the whole problem, and present the procedures, solutions and compensations.
1
25 %Establishing a special farmers’ cooperati e f nd from no b cooperation2 25 %Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative-fund from now by cooperation between the farmers and their neighbors.
2
9 %Establishing a new tax on crops prices.3 g p p8 %Establishing a special insurance system in insurance companies.45 %Sharing in a governmental insurance box for future environmental hazards. 5 g g
Insurance and Financial Resources of Adaptation (Cost Benefit)
Cost/ BenefitVery low
Very highAdaptation Measures
54321 54321
The government should handle the whole problem, and present the procedures, solutions and compensations.
1
Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative-box from now by cooperation between the farmers and their neighbors.
2
E t bli hi t i3 Establishing a new tax on crops prices.3
Establishing a special insurance system in insurance companies.
4companies.Sharing in a governmental insurance box for future environmental hazards.
5
Insurance and Financial Resources of Adaptation (Opportunities, Limitations & Risks)
Available
Implet
Knol
TecPoHres
Infras
Available
Not available butpossible em
entationtim
eow
ledge level
ch. level
olicies
Hum
an sources
structure
Not available & impossible
The government should handle the whole problem, and present the procedures, solutions and compensations.
1
Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative box from now by2
15-20
Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative-box from now by cooperation between the farmers and their neighbors.
2
Establishing a new tax on crops prices.3 <5
5-10
g p pEstablishing a special insurance system in insurance companies.
4 <5
Sharing in a governmental insurance box for future environmental hazards.
5 5-10
h i l i
Adaptation Results SummaryChanging cultivarsChanging crop patternEstablishing adaptation tax on crops prices (less than 2% of the price).Establishing adaptation tax on crops prices (less than 2% of the price).
Uncertainty•Scientific knowledge limitations•Physiological limits•Food security constrainsFood security constrains•Inhabitants’ national distribution balance.•Farmers’ income.•Financial resources•National income per capita.•Standard of livingStandard of living.•Marketing constrains.•The required fund for adaptation may exceed the level of adaptation tax.
On-farm irrigation in Egypt…why it's a unique case?98
100•Egypt is a limited water-resource
60
80
100
ea (%
)
Egypt is a limited water resourcecountry.•95% of the cultivated area is
d fi d i i ti t 49
7
28
10
37 41
24 2822
813
20 188
1620
40
60
Irrig
ated
areunder fixed irrigation system.
•85% from total available waterconsumed in agriculture.
7 10 8 8
0
Alb
ania
Alg
eria
Cyp
rus
Egyp
t
Fran
ce
Gre
ece
Isra
el
Italy
eban
on
Liby
a
Mal
ta
Mor
occo
Spai
n
Syria
Tuni
sia
Turk
ey
g
•Mixed crop pattern (field crops-vegetables- fruits)
A
Le M
Surface Irri Sprinkler Irri Microirrigation
• Total annual cropped area is 150to 180 % from the total cultivatedarea
80
100p garea.
40
60
Are
a %
0
20
0
Cyp
rus
Egyp
t
Leba
non
Liby
a
Mal
ta
Mor
occo
Syria
Tuni
sia
Turk
ey
CC projections:GCM d H dCM3GCM used: HadCM3
IPCC's SRES scenarios [A1, A2, B1 and B2]
Air-temp downscaled by "Kriging" local interpolation method by ESRI
ArcMapTM 9.0, according to the Egyptian coordinates.p , g gyp
"CropWat" Water requirements calculations are based on FAO modified
P M t ith th d f l l ti f t i tiPenman-Monteith methods for calculating reference crop evapotranspiration
(Smith, 1992).
CO concentration in ppm
2100s2050s2025sCurrent 732542433370A1
CO2 concentration in ppm
732542433370A1532489426370B1
DSSAT experiments
Old landWinter Wheat- Broad Bean- Tomato- Potato
Summer Maize- Cotton- Tomato- Potato
On-farm irrigation system Eff. %Irrigation efficiency of the studied irrigation systems under simulations
-Traditional surface irrigation 50-Improved surface irrigation 75- Sprinkler irrigation 70- Sprinkler irrigation 70- Drip irrigation 85
Change in crop-water requirements [%]
16
Wheat [W] Broad Bean [W]
12
14
]
Maize [S] Maize [N]Tomato [W] Tomato [S]Tomato [N] Potato [W]Potato [S] Potato [N]
10
12
s ch
ange
[%] Potato [S] Potato [N]
8
equi
rem
ents
4
6
Cro
p-w
ater
re
2
C
02025 2050 2100 2025 2050 2100
A1 B1A1 B1
Change in WUE [%]20
Change in WUE [%]
0
10
20
-10
e [%
]
-30
-20
WU
E ch
ange
-50
-40
Wheat [W] Broad Bean [W]M i [S] M i [N]
-70
-60
Maize [S] Maize [N]Tomato [W] Tomato [S]Tomato [N] Potato [W]Potato [S] Potato [N]
-702025 2050 2100 2025 2050 2100
A1 B1
ConclusionUsing water-efficient practices and technology are promising options toUsing water efficient practices and technology are promising options to
reduce agricultural sector vulnerability to climate change.
iff bi i b diff l l f i d fDifferent combinations between different levels of improved surfaceirrigation with applying deficit irrigation could improve the capacity of surfaceirrigation system in old land in order to overcome the negative impacts ofirrigation system in old land in order to overcome the negative impacts ofclimate change.
i b d ffi i d iImproving crop pattern based on WUE concept …efficient adaptationmeasure.
Improving WUE should couple with socioeconomical factors.
i i i i b l i i h fLow-power requirement irrigation systems … better selections in the future.
agricultural activities
inin
“Cli t Ch Ri k“Climate Change Risk
Management in Egypt”
project
Program Description
Climate ChangeProgramg
Mitigation Adaptation
CDMForecasting
&Vulnerability
&SEC Component CDMComponent
& IWRM
Component
&AdaptationComponent
Vulnerability and Adaptation ComponentVulnerability and Adaptation Component
Establish an effective Adaptation Policy Framework in theEstablish an effective Adaptation Policy Framework in the water and agriculture sectors.
Implementation of a communication strategy to increase awareness of climate change risks and promote integration of adaptation principles into national development plansadaptation principles into national development plans. …
Adapting agriculture and fisheries policies and practices to changing climate.
Developing of stress tolerant crop varieties and optimizedDeveloping of stress tolerant crop varieties and optimized cropping pattern that cope better with harsh climatic conditions
Address optimal use of OFWM under climate change.
JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector
IFADJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture SectorSub-activity [1]: Stresses tolerant varieties
First Year ActionsFirst Year Actions
• Identifying the PILOT LOCATIONS of the study, representing different agriculture systems in Egypt.systems in Egypt.
• Collecting HISTORICAL DATA of weather conditions, SOIL AND WATER RESOURCES of the locations of the studyRESOURCES of the locations of the study.
• Selection of tolerant varieties of the strategic FIELD CROPS.• Conducting two seasons' FIELD STUDIES to evaluate the selected varieties.
• ANALYZING the results of crops field-studies under CLIMATE CHANGEANALYZING the results of crops field studies under CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS
JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector
IFADJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture SectorSub-activity [2]: knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses tolerant varieties
First Year Actions
• Identifying the STAKEHOLDERS GROUPS.
• Establishment of indicated contacts to STAKEHOLDERS GROUPS.
• Establish oriented INFORMATION PACKAGES to different targeted stakeholders groups.
JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector
IFADJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture SectorSub-activity [2]: knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses tolerant varieties
Fi t Y A tiFirst Year Actions
• Identifying the current major CROP PATTERN from historical agricultural statisticsstatistics.
• Identify the key parameters and FORCES DRIVING the annual changes in CROP PATTERNPATTERN.
• Study the trend of change in cultivated area by using REMOTE SENSING y g y gtechniques.
• Prepare the data sets of future climate conditions by using GCM AND/ OR RCM p y gfuture climate data sets.
JP Outputs: 2.1 Adaptation strategies and practices integrated into climate sensitive development policies, plans, and programmes. FAO
First Year Actions
1 A i ti POLICIES ( li t i d fi )1. Assess existing POLICIES (climate screening and proofing):
2. Carry out macro-economic analysis for the cost of climate changeAssessment of climate change impacts on FOOD SECURITY.Assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural PESTS and DISEASES.
3. Identify and describe UNCERTAINTIES, COST/BENEFITS, RISKS,opportunities for potential adaptation measures
4. Select the most VULNERABLE regional issues in various AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS and identify related potential problems. [Identify the spatial COS S S a d de t y e ated pote t a p ob e s. [ dentify the spatialdistribution of risk and vulnerability of agriculture system in Egypt.]
5. Describe of the related AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS.[Describe of the major agroecosystems of the Egyptian agriculture ][Describe of the major agroecosystems of the Egyptian agriculture.]
JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector
FAOJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector
First Year ActionsFirst Year Actions
1. Identify three PILOT LOCATIONS in represent different AGRICULTURAL regions/SYSTEMS in Eg ptAGRICULTURAL regions/SYSTEMS in Egypt.
2. Prepare the data sets required for simulation experiments.
3. Specify DEFICIT IRRIGATION (DI) management levels andrecommendations that could be applied under different agriculturalpp gsystems in Egypt.
4. Conducting a two seasons- season field studies to investigate the impact4. Conducting a two seasons season field studies to investigate the impactof DEFICIT IRRIGATION (DI) treatments on the agricultural productionparameters
Th kThank you
www.clac.edu.eg/green