Activity DriversActivity Drivers

ME 449: Sustainable Air Quality ME 449: Sustainable Air Quality

Adam ShawAdam Shaw

Sarah LahrSarah Lahr

Michael RobertsMichael Roberts

4/22/024/22/02

Overview

Physical activity drivers were assigned to each of Physical activity drivers were assigned to each of the major pollution categories for which emission the major pollution categories for which emission and consumption data was collected.and consumption data was collected.

The data was divided into four major sectors: The data was divided into four major sectors: Industrial, Transportation, Commercial, and Industrial, Transportation, Commercial, and Residential.Residential.

Several industrial processes have significant Several industrial processes have significant emissions of a particular pollutant and should be emissions of a particular pollutant and should be considered separately. These are included in the considered separately. These are included in the XG category.XG category.

For areas such as the industrial sector which For areas such as the industrial sector which encompasses several activities, a major driver was encompasses several activities, a major driver was chosen to represent the entire sector, although it chosen to represent the entire sector, although it may not directly affect some aspects of the sector.may not directly affect some aspects of the sector.

Industrial

# of passenger car factory sales (thousands)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

The industrial activity was measured using the number of passenger car factory sales. This value fluctuated over time and is currently close to the value in 1950. This index was selected because it is representative of emission trends of “big ticket items” of the industrial industry.

Transportation

The transportation category was separated The transportation category was separated according to the type of fuel used. This broke according to the type of fuel used. This broke down the sector into 4 major categories: down the sector into 4 major categories: Gasoline, Diesel, Airline, Marine.Gasoline, Diesel, Airline, Marine.– Gasoline was measured by the combined passenger Gasoline was measured by the combined passenger

miles of automobiles, light-duty trucks, and motorcyclesmiles of automobiles, light-duty trucks, and motorcycles– Diesel was measured by combined ton-freight miles of Diesel was measured by combined ton-freight miles of

trucks and railroadtrucks and railroad– Airline activity was measured using passenger airline Airline activity was measured using passenger airline

milesmiles– Marine activity was measured using marine ton-freight Marine activity was measured using marine ton-freight

milesmiles

Gasoline ActivityGasoline ActivityGasoline Passenger Miles (millions)

010000002000000300000040000005000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

year

Btu/million passenger miles

0

2000

4000

6000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Gasoline passenger miles have been rising steadily since 1950.

Despite the constant increase in passenger miles, the use of energy per passenger mile (BTU/mile) has decreased.

Diesel ActivityDiesel Activity

Diesal ton-freight miles (millions)

0.00

1000000.00

2000000.00

3000000.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Btu/million ton-freight miles

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

The diesel activity, like the gasoline, has increased steadily over time.

Unlike the gasoline activity, however,the energy used per passenger mile (BTU/mile) for diesel has fluctuated and increased over time.

Airline ActivityAirline ActivityAirline Passenger Miles (millions)

0

200000

400000

600000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Btu/million passenger miles

05000

1000015000

20000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

The airline passenger miles have increased steadily over time.

After a peak in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the energy perairline passenger mile (BTU/mile)has decreased and is currently atan all-time low.

Marine ActivityMarine ActivityMarine ton-freight miles (millions)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Btu/million ton-freight miles

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

The marine ton-freight miles hasfluctuated over time. The was a peak in approximately 1980, but since then it has been decreasing.

The energy used per ton-freightmile (BTU/mile) has had varyingvalues over time. It was declining until the mid-1980s and since thenhas been increasing.

Commercial ActivityCommercial ActivityCommercial Activity Drivers

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

1950 1970 1990Year

Sa

le o

f C

on

su

me

r D

ura

ble

Go

od

s

(mill

ion

s $

)

0

20

40

60

80

Sq

ua

re f

ee

t o

f c

om

me

rcia

l fl

oo

rsp

ac

e

(th

ou

sa

nd

s)

CE sales ofconsumerdurable goods(millions $)

Floor Space ofBusinesses(1,000 sq ft)

The sale of consumer durable goods has increased steadily since 1950,with a sharply increased growth rate since the early 1970’s. The amount of commercial floor space has also increased steadily since 1950, with a small decline in the early 1990’s but at a much slower rate thanthe sale of consumer durable goods.

Residential ActivityResidential Activity

Number of Occupied Housing Units (MM)

35.00

55.00

75.00

95.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

The residential activity was measured by the number of occupied housing units for each year. The number has risen steadily since 1950, with no significant peaks of decreases.

Miscellaneous Activities Miscellaneous Activities (XG)(XG)

The activities that could not be assigned to one of the 4 The activities that could not be assigned to one of the 4 categories was accounted for in the miscellaneous category. categories was accounted for in the miscellaneous category. This consists of 6 categories: petroleum and related This consists of 6 categories: petroleum and related industries, chemical and allied product manufacturing, industries, chemical and allied product manufacturing, storage and transport, waste disposal and recycling, solvent storage and transport, waste disposal and recycling, solvent

utilization, and other industrial processes.utilization, and other industrial processes. – Petroleum and related industries was measured by the refinery Petroleum and related industries was measured by the refinery

output of petroleum productsoutput of petroleum products– Chemical and allied product manufacturing was measured using Chemical and allied product manufacturing was measured using

the output of sulfuric acidthe output of sulfuric acid– Storage and transport was measured by the combined highway Storage and transport was measured by the combined highway

and railroad ton-freight milesand railroad ton-freight miles– Waste disposal and recyclingWaste disposal and recycling– Solvent utilization was measured by the asphalt and road oil Solvent utilization was measured by the asphalt and road oil

outputoutput– Other industrial processes was measured using the GDP of private Other industrial processes was measured using the GDP of private

industriesindustries

Petroleum and Related IndustriesPetroleum and Related Industries

Refinery Output of Petroleum Products (MMb/d)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

The refinery output of petroleumproducts has been increasing steadily, with the exception of thedecrease in the early 1980s.

Chemical and Allied Product Chemical and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing

Sulfuric Acid Production (millions short tons)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Sulfuric acid production hadincreased steadily, with onlya few minor fluctuations overtime.

Storage and TransportStorage and Transport

Highway+Railroad ton-freight miles (millions)

0.00

500000.00

1000000.00

1500000.00

2000000.00

2500000.00

3000000.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

The highway and railroad ton-freight miles have been increasing over time.There has been very little fluctuation to the linear increase.

Waste Disposal and RecyclingWaste Disposal and Recycling

Solvent UtilizationSolvent Utilization

Asphalt and Road Oil Output

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

MM

b/d

The output of asphalt and road oil has increased over time, withfluctuations between the mid-1970sand mid 1980s. This output is nowat an all-time high.

Other Industrial ActivityOther Industrial Activity

G DP of P r ivat e I n dust r ies

( mi l l i on s $ )

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

1000000

0

1950 1970 1990

Y ear

“Other Industrial Activities” include a number of activities not included in the previous categories. Since it is not represented by a single activity, it is difficult to arrive at a common physical driver. Therefore, this category is measured against the yearly GDP of private industries.

SummarySummary

From this data, analysis of how From this data, analysis of how emissions and energy use relate to emissions and energy use relate to changes in activity will be performed.changes in activity will be performed.

This analysis was started for the This analysis was started for the transportation sector.transportation sector.– For most of the transportation For most of the transportation

subcategories, it was found that despite subcategories, it was found that despite the increase in activity, the energy used the increase in activity, the energy used per mile was decreasing.per mile was decreasing.