Activities of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) relevant for the assessment

of spatial development in Europe

Contact : Carlo Lavalle

Joint Research Centre of the EC

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Land Management Unit

Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085

E-mail : carlo.lavalle@jrc.it

Institutional Framework

Court of AuditorsCourt of Auditors

Economic and Social CommitteeEconomic and

Social Committee

Committee of the Regions

Committee of the Regions

Council of Ministers

Council of Ministers

European ParliamentEuropean Parliament

European CommissionEuropean

Commission

Court of Justice

Court of Justice

IND. TRADE INFOR. RESEARCH JRC ENVI. AGRI EUROSTAT REGIO

Institute forEnvironment and

Sustainability

Institute forEnvironment and

Sustainability

Commissioner of ResearchCommissioner of Research

EIEI IPSCIPSC IRMMIRMM ITUITUIAMIAM IPTSIPTSIHCPIHCP

Summary of Activities

MOLAND : Monitoring land cover/use dynamics for sustainable urban and regional development

NATURAL HAZARD : Protection of the environment and the citizens against floods (LISFLOOD) and forest fires

ESDI : European Spatial Data Infrastructure

Agri-environmental Indicators – Landscape characterisation

MOLAND(Monitoring Land use/cover Dynamics)

Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional

Development

Contact : Carlo Lavalle

Joint Research Centre of the EC

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Land Management Unit

Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085

E-mail : carlo.lavalle@jrc.it

Web : http://moland.jrc.it

Aim:

• Provide a methodology to assess, monitor and forecast the (sustainable) development of urban and regional environments at EU level

Specific applications:

• Assessment of sustainable urban and regional development: Definition and computation of territorially-based indicators to allow integrated approaches

Development of scenarios for long-term strategies of sustainable development

• Evaluate and compare alternative scenarios of spatial planning (land-use) and policy

• Determine the critical factors in the input spatial plans and policies

• Assessment and evaluation of policies with territorial impact:• Application of the methodology for impact assessment of Regional Development interventions (SF,

Cohesion Funds, CI)

Introduction of Strategic Environmental Assessment concepts and tools in urban / regional planning

Complementing the ESPON Research Programme

Networking with local/regional/national authorities

MOLAND: Towards sustainable urban and regional development

MOLAND : Study Areas in Europe

MOLAND : The Methodology Three inter-linked components:

1. Database preparation (CHANGE): - Measure past and present land use evolution in selected areas (urban, region, corridor,…)

• The reference (current) land use database is derived typically for 1998-2000. • The historical database is computed with data from time windows in mid ’50, end of

’60, and ’80 (only 2 dates for larger areas). • Statistics and socio-economic datasets are merged into the GIS

2. Development of indicators (UNDERSTAND): Identification and computation of territorial and sustainable development indicators to provide a synthetic assessment of urban and regional landscapes.

• Static and dynamic environmental indicators comparable across Europe

3. Development of scenarios (FORECAST): related to urban evolution and assess sustainability of regions

• for forecasting future land use development and its impact on environment, under alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios

• develop scenarios of growth to formulate and evaluate long term strategy for sustainable development.

Integrated territorial indicators

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Urban Fabric Industrial Area Dump, constuctionssites

Artificial non-agricultural vegetated

areas

Arable lands

1955

1965

1980

1997

Statistics and trends

Scenarios of future evolutions

2010

MOLAND : The methodology UNDERSTAND FORECAST

Statistical data (demography, transport, socio-economic, etc.)

1948

1997

1981

1960

Land use evolution

CHANGE

MOLAND – UNDERSTAND: Indicators for urban and regional development

Land use indicators

Urban sprawl

Soil Sealing

Fragmentation indices

Urban/Regional development integrated indicators

European Common Indicators

Strategic Environmental Assessment of TEN/T

Moland – Examples of indicatorsPotential noise pollution

(Munich)

Green edge

(Dublin)

Access to green areas

(Copenhagen)

Habitat suitability

(Dublin)(Trans-border Alpine site)

Impact of transport corridor

Urban sprawl Land use transformation Commuters vs land use

(Dresden)

Road network density

Comparative analysis

1948

1997

1981

1960

(Grenoble)

Urban Growth Population Growth and location

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

(ha)

53-68 68-86 '86-97

Dresden: Increase/Decrease in industrial and commercial areas and public and private units inside the core area

1.2.1.1

1.2.1.2

1.2.1.3

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

(ha)

55 - 70 70 - 85 85 - 97

Munich: Increase in industrial and commercial areasand public and private units inside Munich's core area

1.2.1.1

1.2.1.2

1.2.1.3

Industr./Comm growth

Towards an urban atlasTowards an urban atlas

AAssessment of spatial data on 25 ssessment of spatial data on 25 European cities and urban areas.European cities and urban areas.

Environmental Issue Report No. 30Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. ISBN 92-9167-470-2. 131 pp.

Joint publication of European Environment Agency and European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre.

Available on-line at:

http://moland.jrc.it

or:

http://www.eea.eu.int/

Publication of first results

MOLAND – FORECAST - Method

Land use (2025)

Economic ActivitiesEmploymentHousing demandInter-regional migrationTransport flows

Land use demand

Spatial planning and policy

recommendations and guidelines

MOLAND – Next Steps• Support to the definition of the Urban Thematic Strategy

Chair of the Working Group on Sustainable Urban Management Creation of a network of cities/regions Development of scenarios of urban growth at EU dimension

To validate EU policies ( territorial diversity)

• Formalise the methodology in the ‘regional policy’ frame Impact evaluation of Structural Programmes (ERDF, Cohesion, CI,…)

Pilot project in Northern Ireland/Ireland

ESPON -> Moland in the Work Programme SEA concepts in regional planning Integrated modeling for concepts such as Peripherality/accessibility/… An EU ‘artificial layer’ from CORINE 2000 ( at scale 1:25 000) (proposal)

Concept of “dynamic indicators” City <=> region (carrying capacity and functional area)

NATURAL HAZARD

Contacts:

guido.schmuck@jrc.it(natural hazards project leader)

ad.de-roo@jrc.it(flood & water activities)

jesus.san-miguel@jrc.it(forest fires)

http://natural-hazards.jrc.it

Natural Hazards Forest Fires:

Processing chain to develop forest fire risk indicesStructural Risk index Dynamic index: vegetation status, meteorological observations Advanced fire risk index based on the integration of all indices

Processing chain for burnt area mapping and fire damage assessment

Floods:Flood simulation modelling system for impact assessment

Processing chain for flood extend mapping and damage assessment

Flood risk mapsPre-operational system for Flood-watchEuropean Flood Forecasting System

FLOOD - Main Activities

Development of LISFLOOD modelling system large catchments: Oder, Meuse (1km grid) small catchments: Oder-subc, Meuse-subc, Toce (100m grid) Europe (5km grid)

Simulation of land-use scenario on flood and water balance Flood prevention scenario case-studies

Oder (IKSO / Oder-LISFLOOD; OderRegio / INTERREG) Meuse (Meuse Water Authority) Elbe & Danube (foreseen for 2003/2004) Other European Transnational basins (foreseen for 2005-2006)

European Flood Forecasting System Flood pre-warning and flood risk Flood extent and damage forecasting Realtime tests already done: Oder (2001), Elbe & Danube (2002)

Contribution to Catchment Information System

The LISFLOOD modelling system

LISFLOOD-WB Water balance model LISFLOOD-FS Flood simulation model LISFLOOD-FF Flood forecasting model LISFLOOD-FP Flood Inundation model

Catchment-scale Floodplain-scale

LISFLOOD outputs

Water Source Areas

Evapotranspiration

Soil moisture storage Capacity

Discharge

Evapotranspiration – time series

EUROPEAN FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM (EFFS)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

time (day since 1 January 1995)

dis

char

ge

(m3/

s)

p20f Maaseik (measured)

10 day weather forecasts:

rainfall temperature

+ LISFLOODMODEL

Flood forecasts for all major rivers:

Example of a warning report

10-day forecast Meuse:20-30 January 1995with uncertainty rangedischarge forecast

European Forest Fire Risk Forecasting System (EFFRFS)

Structural Risk

Vegetation Stress Risk

Meteorological Risk

Fire Potential Index

FIRE POTENTIAL INDEX

BURNT AREA AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: PORTUGAL 2000

CORINE land-cover Burned area (ha) Burned area (%)Artificial surfaces 69 0.17Agricultural areas 20457 19.11

Forests and semi-natural. 86284 80.59Wetlands 97 0.09

Unclassified land 45 0.04Total 107063 100

European Forest Fire Information System EFFIS

•Cartography

•Tables

•Statistics

Fire Risk

Burnt Areas

Regeneration

Risk zoning

Biomass

Fire Risk

CO2 emiss.

Member States

EC

EP

Modules

Products:Customer and user: