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www.travelbehavior.us. Active Travel in Texas: Data for Decision-Making. 2014 Texas Active Transportation Conference Nancy McGuckin Travel Behavior Analyst. www.travelbehavior.us. Overview of Today’s Presentation:. Data Needs and Data Sources Performance Measurement Trends over time - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Active Travel in Texas: Data for Decision-Making
2014 Texas Active Transportation ConferenceNancy McGuckin
Travel Behavior Analyst
www.travelbehavior.us
2
Overview of Today’s Presentation:
•Data Needs and Data Sources
•Performance Measurement▫Trends over time▫Response to new programs/infra-structure▫Exposure for Safety analysis
•Walking and Biking Behavior and Trends
•Some thoughts about future efforts
www.travelbehavior.us
3
Data Needs to Assess Active Travel:• Volume of travel (Ped + Bike)• Location• Time/miles of travel (exposure)
Ground-Level
• Demographics• Special populations• Unique behaviors, concerns, barriers
Behavior
• Density/Sprawl• Design factors (e.g. complete streets)• Opportunities and accessibility
Built Environment
www.travelbehavior.us
4
BikeTexas 2012 Benchmark Study
www.travelbehavior.us
Provides consistent data across the state (35 towns and cities) related to Bicycle and Pedestrian:
• Infrastructure•Policies•Funding•Staffing•Mode share (to work)
• Education and Advocacy• Safety• Public Health
5
TX-NHTS: a large-scale population survey which provides data on everyday walking and biking:
▫Used to estimate the amount of walking and biking for safety analysis and planning across different metro areas and by different groups of people
▫Characterize the kinds of walk and bike trips people do: purpose, time of day, length, home-based or work-based, etc.
▫ Inform policies and programs relatedto encouraging walking and biking (such as the Safe Routes to School program)
www.travelbehavior.us
HTTP://NHTS.ORNL.GOV
6
Design Details of TX-NHTS Sample:
TXDOT purchased 20,000 additional samples in the 2009 National Household Travel Survey
Single-day travel-diary for each person’s travel, covering 365 days
All trips, all purposes, all modes on an assigned reporting day for all people in the household
Walk and bike activity for ‘last week’ as well as reporting day allows for greater capture of active travel
Special ‘Safe Routes to School’ module obtained children’s usual travel to and from school
www.travelbehavior.us
A snapshot of everyday travel by people in Texas
7
A trip was defined as any movement from ‘One Address to Another’:
Access and egress to transit have to be separately estimated from the transit trip description
Trip 7 & 8Walk the
Dog
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: “Walking and Biking in California”, 2012 McGuckin
8
The Texas add-on was a substantial sample:
www.travelbehavior.us
Note: If access and egress to transit are calculated, many more walks and bicycle trips would be included in heavy transit markets
Number of Samples Weighted Estimate
Households 22,255 8,422,249
People 46,423 22,299,667
Travel Day Walk Trips 11,742 2.3 bil
Travel Day Bike Trips 1,196 250 mil.
9
How can you use the data? Compare different cities and towns
• Tie behavior to design of the built environment• Examine the impacts of demographics
Develop ‘Exposure Rates’ for safety analysis:• Miles of walking• Time spent biking
www.travelbehavior.us
Target education, programs and policies for vulnerable groups: school children, elderly, new immigrants
10
Measuring Performance
www.travelbehavior.us
11
What caused this dramatic change in walk and bike mode share?
www.travelbehavior.us
“walking trips nearly doubled from 8.4 percent to 16.6 percent
of trips”.
Did the state make massive investments in new infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists in cities and
towns across the state?
Did they throw the backing of the state behind some of the proven education
campaigns to increase walking and biking, like
“Bike to Work Day’ or “Safe Routes to School”?
How did they succeed?
12
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20138,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
VM
T/C
apit
a p
er Y
ear
www.travelbehavior.us
Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) per Capita started to decline in 2004:
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Census Population (Jul 1) and HPMS Historic VM-1 Tables
13
When Driving Goes Down, everything else goes ‘up’ as a percent:
www.travelbehavior.us
2001 2009Mode Share
80%
100%
0.6% 0.8%
4.6%
7.7%
92.6%
87.5%
Mode Share Trends in TXBike Walk Driving
5.1 Percentage Point Decline
in Driving
3.1 percentage point inc. in
Walk
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of TX-NHTS Data Series
14
-20% -19% -20% -20%
-11%
-2% -3%-5%
1%5%
8%
2%
24% 22%
10%
Percent Change in VMT per Capita: 1995 to 2009
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Younger people drove fewer miles than older people:
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series, comparing VMT per capita from 1995-2009
15-19
15
Between age groups the mode share may look the same while the per capita rate is quite different (here 20% more):
5-15 yrs 16-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 and older
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Walk Trips Per Capita and as a Share of Daily Travel
Per
Cap
ita
Wal
k T
rip
s
Wal
k T
rip
s as
a S
har
e o
f All
Tra
vel
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS
www.travelbehavior.us
16
In trends analysis the percent mode share and trends in trips per capita can show different patterns:
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series
1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 20090%
5%
10%
15%
Walking Mode Share, people 16+
1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 20090
40
80
120
160Walking Trips per Capita, people 16+
17
In safety analysis exposure rates based on miles or minutes can show different patterns than fatalities per population…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Under 5 5 -- 9 10 -- 1516 -- 2021 -- 2425 -- 3435 -- 4445 -- 5455 -- 6465 -- 74 75 +
Pedestrain Fatallities per Population and per Miles Walked
Fatalities per 1,000,000 pop Fatalities per 100,000,000 miles walked
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of FARS Data for CA and the 2009 CA-NHTS
18www.travelbehavior.us
Another important measure is the percent of in-active people:
NY VA CA FL GA TX
28.4 33.0 34.0 34.6 34.6 39.0
53.253.2 55.2 51.8 51.7
50.7
18.4 13.9 10.8 13.6 13.6 10.3
Percent of People by Reported Walks 'Last Week'
Everyday +
1-6 times/week
Zero Walks
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS people 16+
19
Active Travel in Texas
www.travelbehavior.us
HTTP://NHTS.ORNL.GOV
20
Where does Texas rank among the states?
www.travelbehavior.us
NC
SC
GA
TX
OH
FL
WI
AZ
VA
All Other
CA
NY
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Per Capita Walk Trips in Selected States:Texas is Ninth of Twelve
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS
21
‘New immigrants’ are more likely to report walking everyday, while Hispanics and Asians are the most likely to report zero walks:
African-American
Asian
Hispanic (of any Race)
White
New Immigrants (5 yrs or less):
0 20 40 60 80 100
None (zero last week) Some (1-6 last week) Everyday (7+ last week)
Percent of PeopleSource: McGuckin’s analysis of CA-NHTS for 2013 CHCC
www.travelbehavior.us
The TX-NHTS has people’s perceptions of barriers related to infrastructure:
Barriers to Walking MoreDistrict with
Highest Percentage
District with Second Highest
Streets too wide Los Angeles Redding
No sidewalks or sidewalks in poor condition Redding Fresno
Too many cars Los Angles Fresno
Unsafe street crossings Los Angeles Fresno
Fast traffic Los Angeles Fresno
No nearby paths or trails Eureka Fresno
Not enough light at night San Bernardino Redding
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of the 2009 CA-NHTS
Compared to other states, a smaller proportion of walk trips in Texas are to ‘walk the dog’...
New York
California
Iowa
Texas
Arizona
Indiana
All Other States
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Virginia
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Overall
4.1
6.1
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.6
8.2
10.2
10.7
10.9
13.4
13.9
18.0
8.0
2009 NHTS Percent of Daily Walk Trips to “Walk the Dog”
Source: 2009 NHTS Day Trip File, McGuckin’s analysis
24
Myths and Evidence About Active Travel
www.travelbehavior.us
25
All
Pre-D
rivers
16-29
30-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Per Capita Walk Trips (all Purposes)2009 All
All
Pre-D
river
s16-2
930-5
960-6
465-6
970-7
475-7
980-8
485+
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 for People in Denser Urban Areas
Myth: Young adults (16-29) are more likely to walk than older people
• Walk trip rates drop overall when people reach driving age
• Nationwide, people aged 16-29 walk at about the rate of folks 60-64
• Except in denser urban areas
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of the 2009 NHTS
26
People in high density settings walk more than others, but most folks in the US live in lower-density neighborhoods:
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of the 2009 NHTS
www.travelbehavior.us
750 or Less
1500 3000 7000 17000 300000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Percent of People and Walk Rates by Res-idential Density -- US
Household Units per Sq. Mi.
Perc
ent o
f Peo
ple
Wal
ks p
er W
eekThe City of Ft. Worth
averages 721.4 Housing
Units/Sq Mile and 3.5 walks per week
27www.travelbehavior.us
Source of graphic: http://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/Walking/index.html
28www.travelbehavior.us
People in Dallas-Ft. Worth are less likely to have close-by destinations they want to travel to:
Dallas-Ft. Worth has fewer trips of 1 mile or less (25.7 percent) AND fewer of those trips are by walking and biking than Atlanta, LA, or the nation as a whole:
DFW Region
Atlanta Region
National LA Re-gion
SF Re-gion
Wash,DC Re-gion
NY Metro Area
0
20
40
60
80
100
25.7
27.1 28.133.6 31.6 32.9
47.1
Transit/Other
Drive with Others
Drive Alone
Walk/Bike
Percent of All Travel That is in Trips of 1 Mile or Less
Per
cen
t of A
ll T
rip
s of
1 m
ile o
r le
ss b
y M
ode
XX.X
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of the 2009 NHTS
29
Myth: People used to walk more in the ‘olden’ days
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS data series, using adjusted 1995
1990 1995 2001 2009
150.7 151.8
166.5
146.0
86.1 86.0
115.5
138.2
Per Capita Walks Trips, 1990-2009 US
Children 5-15 yrs old People aged 16 and Older
While Adults are Reporting More Walks, Children are Reporting Fewer, and a
smaller proportion of
those are walks to school
www.travelbehavior.us
People walk and ride for a range of reasons:
7.3
17.2
8.3
33.7
33.0
Percent of Bike Rides
16.1
34.5
12.1
20.2
14.9
Percent of Walks
All Other
Go to school
Shop/Errands
Other Soc/Rec
Exercise
Children aged 5-15
13.3
22.9
22.0
14.1
24.0
0.29
Percent of Bike Rides
24.7
10.7
19.4
12.2
23.8
7.2
Percent of Walks
All Other
Work and WrkRel
Shop/Errands
Other Soc/Rec
Exercise
Pet Care:Walk the Dog
Travelers aged 16 and older
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of CA-NHTS for 2013 CHCC
31
What does the NHTS tell us about trends in biking in the U.S.?• Nearly half of driving age adults have
access to a bicycle
• More than half of adults with a bike use it in the summer months*
• Since 1990, children are making fewer bike trips, especially to school
• As our society ages, the average age of adult cyclists is also getting older
• Nearly a quarter of bike trips by 16-30 year olds are commutes, and bike commuters are very loyal to their mode
*From BTS National Survey of Pedestrian and Bicyclist Attitudes and Behavior
www.travelbehavior.us
32
Myth: The average cyclists is youngwww.travelbehavior.us
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series
1990 1995 2001 2009
32.334.1
39.942.7
Average Age of Cyclists 16 and olderEvidence: Baby Boomers
continue to cycle, and the mean age is older by over
ten years than just two decades ago. Aging impacts
infrastructure design for cyclists in many of the same ways it does for pedestrians
and drivers.
33
Evidence: People from 5 years old to 35 years old bicycle at nearly the same per capita rates
5-15
16-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
65+
All
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Bicycle Trips per Capita per Year in CA by Age Group
Bicycle Trips per Capita per Year
Myth: Children bicycle more than other age groups
This difference (23.0 to 24.5) is
within the margin of
error
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of the 2009 CA-NHTS
34
Critical Findings and Future Directions
www.travelbehavior.us
35www.travelbehavior.us
Summery of Critical Findings:Performance Measurement
Mode Share is the traditional measure of the percent of travel by each major means:
Driving, Transit, Walk, and Bike.
Worked well when all travel was increasing at about the same rate,
BUT when driving started to level off around 2004—and declined during the recession—ALL the other travel modes increased in share.
Think of it as part of the TOOL-BOX for assessing changes in travel
36
Summary of Critical Findings: Safety
Therefore using population-based safety statistics results in lower estimates of fatalities
Developing exposure data (based on the amount of walking) brings to light the differences between metro areas and population groups (immigrants, children)
These data can provide information to promote safety to specific populations with greater exposure (lower-income school children, frequent bicyclists, or new immigrants)
www.travelbehavior.us
Evidence shows that Texans walk less than people in other states:
37
Summary of Critical Findings: Health In Texas, 39% of people report no walks
at all ‘Last Week’:
▫Health advocates are interested in increasing active transport—this ties in very well with the goals of safety, livability, and sustainability.
▫ In addition, as people age they are likely to develop travel difficulty. The evidence shows that many older people have difficulty traveling outside the home. Many of those who don’t travel would like to get out more.
www.travelbehavior.us
38
Summary of Critical Findings: Livability Children are especially vulnerable, since fewer of them walk to school, and overall they walk less than they used to
Walking to school is correlated with walking for other purposes and increases active travel by children for all purposes—programs aimed at encouraging children to walk can create a constituency of walkers
The most vulnerable populations—children and older people—can be harbingers of good design and planning in livable communities
www.travelbehavior.us
39
Evidence-based planning and policy can make real improvements in people’s lives:
Promote safe and convenient opportunities for physical activity through complete streets and safety improvements
Reduce the carbon footprint of daily travel while also improving air quality and reducing emmissions
Ensure that all people have equal access to affordable transportation (e.g. walking and biking)
www.travelbehavior.us
40
Putting it all together:
www.travelbehavior.us
How do the different ways cities plan for bike and pedestrians actually effect people’s daily travel?
BikeTexas Benchmark
Study
TX-NHTS Bike and Walking
Behavior
41
With the right data and the right measures…
www.travelbehavior.us
We can find the right road!
42
Thank You!
Get more information at:
www.travelbehavior.us