ACT Population Projection: 2007 to 2052 · Web viewACT population projections are based on an initial ... 84 5,535 5,712 5,980 6,255 6,551 6,850 85+ 5,826 5,972 6,136 6,277 6,465

ACT Population Projections

2017 to 2020

© Australian Capital Territory, Canberra, March 2017

This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968,

no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from the ACT

Government, GPO Box 158, Canberra City ACT 2601.

Produced by the Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

Enquiries about this publication should be directed to:

Andrew Beaumont

Macroeconomic Branch

Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate

GPO Box 158

Canberra City ACT 2601Email: [email protected]

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mailto:[email protected]

Contents

List of Tables 4

List of Figures 5

Chief Minister’s Foreword 6

1.0 Summary of the projections 7

2.0 Introduction 8

2.1 Future Releases of ACT Population Projections 8

2.2 Limitations of Projections 8

2.3 Rounding 9

2.4 Years 9

2.5 Projection Variants 9

3.0 Projections Methodology 10

4.0 Population Projections 12

4.1 Key Results 12

4.2 Projection Assumptions 12

4.3 Total Population Change 12

4.4 Demographic Components of Population Change 13

4.5 Age Structure Change 14

4.6 Population by District and Suburb 16

5.0 Projection Assumptions 18

5.1 Initial Population Assumptions 18

5.2 Fertility Assumptions 18

5.3 Mortality Assumptions 18

5.4 Migration Assumptions 20

6.0 Additional Information 22

6.1 Historical Population Planning 22

6.2 Previous Population Projection Releases 22

7.0 Appendices 23

7.1 Methodological Appendix 23

7.2 Detailed Tables 27

3

List of Tables

Table 4.1 Summary of Key Assumptions 12

Table 7.1 Population Projections by District (Persons), 2015 - 2020 27

Table 7.2 Population Projections by Suburb (Persons), 2015 - 2020 28

Table 7.3 Population Projections by Age Cohort (Persons), 2015 - 2020 34

Table 7.4 Population Projections by Age Cohort (Males), 2015 - 2020 34

Table 7.5 Population Projections by Age Cohort (Females), 2015 - 2020 35

Table 7.6 Population Projections by Age Cohort and by Gender, 2015 - 2020 36

4

List of Figures

Figure 4.1 Historical and Projected Population Growth, 1982 - 2020 13

Figure 4.2 Population Growth by Component: Historical and Projections, 2001 - 2020 13

Figure 4.3 Age Structure of the ACT Population, 2016 and 2020 14

Figure 4.4 Percent Change in the Projected Population by Age, 2016 - 2020 15

Figure 4.5 Population by Key Age Group, 2016 and 2020 16

Figure 5.1 Total Fertility Rate for the ACT, 1997 - 2020 19

Figure 5.2 Mortality Rate for the ACT, 1997 - 2020 19

Figure 5.3 Life Expectancy at Birth in the ACT, 1996 - 2020 20

Figure 5.4 Net Interstate Migration and Net Overseas Migration, 1996 - 2016 21

5

Chief Minister’s Foreword

The ACT Government is committed to ensuring we keep delivering great services and infrastructure as this city grows. Accurate population projections are fundamental to this process.

The projections are based on Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2015 as released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)1, and assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. Information on the future ACT Government land release program has also been used for projecting estimated resident population for the new suburbs.

It is projected that the Territory’s population will reach around 421,839 people by 2020; an increase of 25,288 people compared with 30 June 2016.

The ACT will experience changes in the structure of its estimated population based on these projections. The proportion of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase from 12 per cent to 13 per cent over the 4 year period (an increase of around 7,437 people), while the proportion of the population aged 15 to 34 years is projected to decline from 31 per cent to 30 per cent over the same period.

While the projections in ACT Population Projections: 2017 to 2020 do not represent ‘targets’, they do provide a basis for assessing the future needs of our growing community. They will help the Government plan for land releases, schools, public utilities, health centres, aged care facilities and playgrounds.

These official population projections will be updated every two years to reflect changing demographic trends, ensuring that the Territory continues to plan ahead for our city’s growth.

Andrew Barr MLA ACT Chief Minister

1ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 - Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2015 (18 August 2016).

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1.0 Summary of the ProjectionsThis report presents official ACT Government population projections by age, sex and suburb for the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) for the period 2017 - 2020 (the projections).

ACT Population Projections: 2017 to 2020, presents the ACT Government’s official population projections by age, sex and suburb. The projections presented in this report are based on ABS Catalogue Number 3235.0 – Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2015.

These projections supersede the previous ACT demographic projections released in January 2014.

Approximately two thirds of the growth in population by 2020 is anticipated to be driven by natural increase (births minus deaths), with the remainder to be driven by net migration (net overseas migration and net interstate migration).

The ACT’s population growth is expected to vary by age group. Between 2016 and 2020: the number of ACT children (aged 14 years and under), is projected to

increase by 9 per cent, with its share of the total population remaining at around 19 per cent;

the population aged 15 to 34 years is projected to increase by around 2 per cent, with its share of the total population expected to decline from 31 per cent in 2016 to 30 per cent in 2020;

the population aged 35 to 64 years is projected to increase by 6 per cent, with its share of the total population expected to remain steady at around 38 per cent; and

the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase by 15 per cent, with its share of the total population projected to increase from 12 per cent in 2016 to 13 per cent in 2020.

It is important to recognise that the projections reflect the outcomes of certain assumptions about the future of fertility, mortality and migration - assumptions which may not eventuate. The projections do not represent population targets, nor do they represent ACT Government policy positions - they are policy neutral. As such, the projections should not be interpreted as fixed, precise predictions of the demographic future, but rather an indication of potential population change.

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2.0 IntroductionThis report presents the ACT Government’s population projections by age, sex and suburb for the period 2017 - 2020. The projection methodology used to produce the ACT population projections is based on the internationally accepted cohort-component projections method2. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was engaged to produce the projections using assumptions provided by ACT Treasury.

Section 3 of this report discusses the projection methodology employed.

Section 4 of this report presents population projections for the ACT. Projections are available as at 30 June for each year of the 2017 - 2020 projection period.

Section 5 of this report identifies the starting population profile, as determined by the ABS, and assumptions regarding the future of fertility, mortality and migration for the ACT.

Section 6 presents some additional commentary on the need for demographic data for planning purposes.

Section 7 presents the tables containing demographic information. Detailed tables are available on the Treasury website: http://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/demography.

2.1 Future Releases of ACT Population ProjectionsIt is anticipated that subsequent releases of ACT population projections, as well as ACT suburb-level population projections, will be published biennially.

2.2 Limitations of ProjectionsThese population projections are not intended to present predictions of the demographic future to any degree of precision. Instead, the population projections contained in this report are the projected populations resulting from certain assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

Future trends in fertility, mortality and migration are influenced by a variety of social, economic and political factors. Due to the difficulty in predicting such fluctuations, assumptions based on long-run average fertility, mortality and migration trends have been employed in these projections. It is anticipated that actual trends in fertility, mortality and migration will vary in comparison to the long-run assumptions.

It should be emphasised that these population projections do not represent ACT Government population targets. These projections have been developed on a policy-neutral basis. Consequently, the ACT population projections contained in this document should not be interpreted as precise predictions of the demographic future,

2 Samuel H. Preston, Patrick Heuveline and Michel Guillot, ‘Demography: Measuring and Modelling Population Processes’ (Cornwall: Blackwell Publishers, 2001), p119.

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http://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/demography

but instead provide an indication of population change and its subsequent possible implications for the Territory.

2.3 RoundingPercentages in this report are rounded to the nearest whole number.

2.4 YearsThroughout this report, the phrase “The population in 20xx”(or similar) refers to the ACT’s projected population as at 30 June 20xx.

2.5 Projection VariantsAlternative projection variants have not been published in this report.

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3.0 Projections MethodologyThe projections methodology used to produce the ACT population projections by age, sex and suburb presented in this report is based on the cohort-component method.

The ABS describes the cohort-component population projections method as follows:

‘the cohort-component method begins with a base population for each sex by single year of age and advances it year by year by applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. This procedure is repeated for each year in the projection period3.’

The ABS population projections model has been run using ACT specific assumptions, including the number of births, as provided by ACT Treasury to the ABS. Preliminary assumptions are discussed in Section 5 of this document. Information on the future ACT Government land release program has also been used for projecting the population of new suburbs.

The ABS applied the following two-tiered process in projecting the resident population for the ACT:1. Territory Projections - The ACT population was projected by age and sex.2. Statistical Area 2 Projections (suburb level) - The population of all the ACT SA2s

were projected by age and sex (constrained to the Territory’s total population by age and sex).

1. Territory ProjectionsThe base population for the ACT cohort-component projection was preliminary age and sex estimated resident population (ERP) as at 30 June 2015, incorporating results from the 2011 Census. Assumptions for the projections were based on both short and long-term trends for each component of population change. These fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration assumptions were provided by the ACT Treasury.

2. Suburb Level (SA2) ProjectionsThe base population for the SA2 cohort-component projections was the 30 June 2015 SA2 age and sex. The fertility, mortality and migration assumptions were based on SA2-specific levels observed during the past five years, constrained to the assumed Territory levels and trends. SA2 age and sex migration profiles were derived from 2011 Census data on place of usual residence one year ago.

The ABS regularly collects demographic information at the SA2 level, which means that SA2 projections (in contrast to smaller areas) are firmly based on a series of known data. At each yearly cycle in this process, the resulting SA2 projections (including the new suburbs) were constrained to sum to the total ACT projections,

3 ABS Cat. No. 3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101.10

helping to produce more reliable SA2 figures. SA2s with an estimated resident population of less than 1,000 persons were generally held constant for the projection duration as assumptions for the accompanying small age and sex cells are unreliable.

SA2 boundaries are from the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Volume 1 – Main Structure and Greater Capital City Statistical Areas, July 2011 (ABS Cat. No. 1270.0.55.001) corresponding to those used for the 2011 Census.

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4.0 Population Projections

4.1 Key ResultsThe resident population of the ACT is estimated to be around 396,551 persons as at 30 June 2016. The ACT population is projected to reach 421,839 persons by 2020. This population growth represents an increase of 6 per cent over the projection period (or 1.5 per cent per annum on average over this period).

Natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to contribute 62 per cent of this growth, while net migration (net overseas migration and net interstate migration) accounts for the remaining 38 per cent.

4.2 Projection AssumptionsTable 4.1 outlines key assumptions employed in ACT population projections. Further discussion of these assumptions is at Section 5.

Table 4.1 Summary of Key Assumptions

Key Variable AssumptionTotal Fertility Rate* 1.79 births per woman (aged 15 – 49 years)

Life Expectancy at Birth**

Males 81.2 years in 2014-15, rising to 83.3 years by 2019-20

Females 85.3 years in 2014-15, rising to 86.5 years by 2019-20

Net Migration***Interstate

-176 persons in 2015-16, rising to 130 persons in 2019-20

Overseas1,607 persons in 2015-16, rising to 2,650 persons in 2019-20

Source: ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate

*Total Fertility Rate takes into account the latest ABS data, and is held constant over the projection period.

** The mortality rate assumption used in these projections is consistent with the values published in Population Projections, Australia, 2012

(base) to 2101 (ABS Cat. No. 3222.0). The life expectancies in this table are derived from these inputs.

*** The specified Net Interstate Migration (NIM) figures reflect a gradual increase from observed 2015-16 NIM (-176 persons) to the 10 year

average NIM rate of 10 per cent of total migration by 2022. The specified Net Overseas Migration (NOM) figures reflect a linear increase from

observed 2015-16 NOM (of 1,607 persons) to the 10 year average NOM rate of 0.66% of the population by 2022.

4.3 Total Population ChangeThe population of the ACT is projected to increase by 25,288 persons to 421,839 persons over the period 2016 - 2020. The results of the projected ACT population over the period 2016 - 2020, by five (5) year age cohorts, and by sex are tabulated at Section 7 of this report. Detailed tables are also available on the Treasury website: http://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/demography.

Figure 4.1 illustrates the historical and projected ACT population growth over the period 1982 - 2020.

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Figure 4.1 Historical and Projected Population Growth, 1982 - 2020

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.519

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

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0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

20

Per cent

Historical Projections

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate

4.4 Demographic Components of Population ChangeOver the period (2016 - 2020), natural increase (births minus deaths) is anticipated to contribute approximately 62 per cent of the ACT’s population growth, with net migration (overseas and interstate migration) to contribute the remaining 38 per cent.

Figure 4.2 Population Growth by Component: Historical and Projections, 2001 - 2020

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Persons

Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration


Figure 4.2 above illustrates the components of historical and projected population growth (natural increase and net migration) over the period 2001 – 2020.

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Projections

4.5 Age Structure ChangePopulation growth is projected separately for all ages over the projection period. The most notable increase in population numbers is anticipated to occur for persons aged 65 years and over (Figure 4.3).

ACT’s population at each age is expected to increase from 2016 to 2020, although some ages recorded declines. This is shown in Figure 4.3 below where the green bars are outside the red line. For example the number of males and females aged between 24 – 26 years is expected to decline in 2020 when compared to 2016.

Figure 4.3 Age Structure of the ACT Population, 2016 and 2020


Note: The chart does not show the ACT’s population 85 years and over, as projections by single year of age is estimated from 0 – 84

years. From ages 85 years to 100 years and over, the projection is estimated as 85 years and over.

ACT population growth varies by age. Figure 4.4 illustrates the per cent change in ACT’s population by single age over the period 2016 - 2020. The major changes in the ACT’s population over the projection period are expected to occur for those aged 70 years and over.

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2016

2020

Figure 4.4 Percent Change in the Projected Population by Age, 2016 - 2020

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5505

101520253035404550556065707580

85+

Per cent Change

Age


The total population in the ACT is projected to grow by 6 per cent from 2016 – 2020. The number of ACT children, being those aged 14 years of age and under, is projected to increase by 9 per cent. The population of persons aged 15 - 34 years is projected to increase by 2 per cent, while the population of persons aged 35 - 64 years is projected to increase by 6 per cent. The population of persons aged 65 - 84 years is projected to increase by 16 per cent, while those aged 85 years and over is projected to increase by 12 per cent.

Figure 4.5 illustrates the ACT’s population by key age groups. Figure 4.5 shows that the 20 - 34 year age cohort represent the largest proportion of the ACT’s population in 2020, despite being the age cohort experiencing the slowest growth.

The 20 - 34 year age group is expected to represent the largest proportion of the ACT population throughout the projection period. While the number of persons aged 65 years and over is smaller than the number of children throughout the projection period, there is a substantial growth in the 65 years and over age cohort.

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Total Growth (2016 – 2020) – 6.4%

Figure 4.5 Population by Key Age Group, 2016 and 2020

20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000

0 - 45 - 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84

85+

Number of Females

Age Cohort

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate.

4.6 Population by District and SuburbACT’s demographic structure by suburb has changed considerably over time as a result of the ACT Government’s land release program and the introduction of new suburbs in the Territory. The population structure at the district level has changed as well.

Changes in demographic structure by district and suburb will continue in the projection period. From 2016 to 2020, Cotter-Namadgi’s population is projected to grow by 139 per cent; Gungahlin’s population is projected to grow by around 19 per cent; North Canberra’s population is projected to grow by 8 per cent; South Canberra’s population expected to grow by 5 per cent; and Belconnen’s population projected to grow by 3 per cent.

On the other hand, Weston Creek’s population is projected to decline by 7 per cent; Tuggeranong’s population to decline by 3 per cent and no population growth is expected in Woden.

The high increase in Cotter-Namadgi population is due to inclusion of the new land releases scheduled in ACT South West and Molonglo which includes new suburbs of Coombs, Denman Prospect, Molonglo Stage 2, Molonglo Stage 3, Wright and Riverview. Similarly, the increase in projected population in the North side of the Territory is due to the release of new suburbs in Gungahlin including Moncrieff, Throsby, Jacka, Kenny and Throsby. Belconnen will see continued residential

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2020

2016

Number of Males

construction in the new suburb of Lawson and upcoming high rise apartments in the town centre.

Table 7.1 in Appendix provides a breakdown of population projection by district and suburb. A more detailed breakdown of ACT’s population by district and suburb is available on the ACT Treasury website: http://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/demography.

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5.0 Projection Assumptions

5.1 Initial Population AssumptionsACT population projections are based on an initial starting population of 390,706 persons, which is the preliminary 30 June 2015 Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia (ABS Cat. No. 3235.0). The 30 June 2015 is currently the latest data available for population by region, age and sex.

The preliminary 30 June 2015 estimated resident population is derived from 2011 Census counts of usual residents adjusted for: net under-enumeration (adding in people missed by the Census, and taking out any double counting); residents temporarily overseas; and population change, due to natural increase and net migration, which occurred between 2011 Census night and 30 June 2015.

5.2 Fertility AssumptionsProjections for the future number of births require assumptions about future fertility rates, as well as assumptions about the sex ratio at birth. The model applies age-specific fertility rates individually to females of child bearing age (15 - 49 years) and this process is applied annually.

The birth rate for specific age is applied based on its proportion of total population. For example if only one 15 year old female had a child in 2015 out of 2,000 15 year old females, this proportion is also assumed for 2016 and so forth. Similar treatment is applied to all child bearing age females annually.

The total fertility rate, which represents the average number of babies that a group of women would bear during their lifetimes (under a certain set of age-specific fertility rates), and provided they survive to the end of their reproductive years, is calculated from the age specific fertility rates. The total fertility rate is expressed as the average number of births per woman.

The sex ratio at birth is defined as the ratio of the number of male babies born to the number of female babies born.

5.2.1 Past Trends in ACT Total Fertility RateFigure 5.1 shows a consistent average level of fertility in the ACT throughout the 1990’s, with mild growth in fertility trends over recent years. The total fertility rate is currently around the ACT’s 5-year average and well above the 10-year and 20-year averages.

5.3 Mortality AssumptionsProjections of the future number of deaths, by age and sex, require assumptions about future age and sex specific mortality rates. Unlike fertility and migration, mortality trends are much more stable over time. As such, mortality trends are highly

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amenable to mathematical extrapolation from historical data.

Figure 5.1 - Total Fertility Rate for the ACT, 1997 - 2020

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1997

1998

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2004

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2007

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2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

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2019

2020

Fertility rate

Total Fertility Rate (Actual) Projections 5 Year Average

10 Year Average 20 Year Average

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3301.0, 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate

Figure 5.2 - Mortality Rate for the ACT, 1997 - 2020

0.0

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1998

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2011

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2015

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Death rate/1,000

Standard Mortality Rate (Actual) Projections

5 Year Average 10 Year Average

20 Year Average

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3302.0, 3101.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate

Note: Mortality rate data refers to the Standardised Death Rate - Deaths per 1,000 standard population. Standardised death rates use total

persons in the ACT population at 30 June as the standard population.

5.3.1 Past Trends in ACT Mortality RatesMortality rates in the ACT have been falling steadily (Figure 5.2) and are currently lower than their 5 year average. The decline in mortality rate means increasing life expectancy at birth for both males and females in the ACT (Figure 5.3 below).

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Projections

Projections

5.3.2 ACT Mortality Rate AssumptionsThe population projections assume a mortality rate consistent with the current trend for the ACT for specific age and sex. This mortality rate takes account of the fact that the rate of improvement in life expectancy started to fall from 2013 (Figure 5.2).

Life expectancy at birth for the ACT from 2016 - 2020 is higher than the 20-year average life expectancy. This is most noticeable in the life expectancy at birth for males, and as shown in Figure 5.3 it is expected to continue into the future.

Figure 5.3 - Life Expectancy at Birth in the ACT, 1996 - 2020

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

1996

1997

1998

1999

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2001

2002

2003

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2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Years

Males Females

20 Year Average-Males 20 Year Average-Females

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3302.0.55.001 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate

5.4 Migration AssumptionsMigration assumptions have been made for two types of migration: overseas migration (people immigrating to Australia from overseas and people

emigrating from Australia to overseas); and interstate migration (people moving usual residence between the ACT and

another state or territory within Australia).

5.4.1 Past Trends in ACT Migration RatesHistorically, both overseas and interstate migration have proved to be extremely volatile. This is highlighted in Figure 5.4, which shows net overseas and interstate migration for the ACT over the period 1996 - 2016. There is a higher level of volatility in the ACT’s net interstate migration compared to net overseas migration.

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Projections

Figure 5.4 - Net Interstate Migration and Net Overseas Migration, 1996 - 2016

-3,000

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-1,000

0

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1996

1997

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2011

2012

2013

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2016

Persons

Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0

5.4.2 ACT Migration Rate AssumptionsThe population projections assume a net interstate migration loss of 176 persons in 2016, rising to a gain of 130 persons in 2020. This is considered to be a reasonable assumption on the basis of current trends, noting that the level of interstate migration is difficult to predict from year to year due to inherent volatility.

The population projections assume a net overseas migration gain of 1,607 persons in 2016, rising to 2,650 persons in 2020. This is based on net international migration rates employed by the ABS, adjusted to reflect recent trends and Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) data.

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6.0 Additional Information

6.1 Historical Population PlanningInitial plans for Canberra, as designed by Walter Burley Griffin in 1911, estimated a future resident population (for the area now considered the inner North and inner South of Canberra) of approximately 75,000 persons. This planning target did not have a target date or an assessment of how such a population would be achieved.

In 1965 the Future Canberra Strategy was developed to accommodate Territory population growth to a population of 250,000 persons. The Future Canberra Strategy was based on accommodating growth of the city by the development of new towns, each with a town centre. Again, this planning target did not have a target date or an assessment of how such a population would be achieved.

A review of the Future Canberra Strategy, and relatively high levels of ACT population growth throughout the 1960’s, led to the development of the 1967 Y Plan. The 1967 Y Plan provided for Canberra to grow through the creation of separate districts in the form of a ‘Y’. The Y Plan provided a context to accommodate an ACT population of up to 1 million.

The Canberra Spatial Plan provided strategic direction to the planning and development of the ACT over the next 30 years and beyond, but with the flexibility required to respond to change. The Canberra Spatial Plan was one of the three elements of the ‘Canberra Plan’ that the ACT Government committed to in October 2001. The Canberra Spatial Plan did not propose ACT population targets, but does provide the framework to accommodate a range of population growth scenarios. The Canberra Spatial Plan caters for both moderate and high population growth outcomes of between 430,000 and 500,000 persons, by 2032, for the Canberra-Queanbeyan area.

The new Territory Plan that commenced on 31 March 2008 continues to guide the planning and development of the ACT. It has changed from time to time due to social, economic and environment reasons and is currently under review to ensure it remains a contemporary best practice document outlining planning requirements in the ACT and to meet the recommendations of the National Development Assessment Forum.

6.2 Previous Population Projection Releases

6.2.1 ACT Demographics 2014 ReleasePrevious ACT Government projections were published by the Chief Minister’s Department (CMD) in January 2014 and are available on the Treasury website: http://apps.treasury.act.gov.au/demography.

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7.0 Appendices

7.1 Methodological Appendix

Projection methods for the ACT and Statistical Area 2 (SA2s)

This appendix gives a more detailed breakdown of the four-tiered approach outlined in Section 3 – Projections Methodology. Apart from the births formulae all equations apply to both sexes, so sex has not been denoted.

Step 1 - Territory Projections

This involved projecting the ACT population by age and sex at 30 June 2015 out to 30 June 2020.

The cohort component method used can be summarised in the formulae below:Where:

x -> agemax -> highest age projected (100+ for state; 85+ for sub-state)t -> base yearP -> populationF -> fertility ratef -> femalesB -> birthsQ -> death probabilityOM -> net overseas migrationIM -> net interstate (or internal) migrationNM -> net migration (SA2 projections only)

In Step 1 the following refer to interstate migration; in step 2 they refer to internal migration; and in step 3 they refer to overseas and inter-SA2 migration.

DEP -> departuresARR -> arrivalsDEPRATE -> per capita departure rate (donor state or capital city-rest or SA2)ARRRATE -> per capita arrival rate (receiving states)

For ages 0 to maximum age - 1:

(i) Px+1(t+1) = Px(t) * [1-Qx(t)] +

(0.5 * OMx(t)) * (1-(0.5 * Qx(t))) +

(0.5 * OMx+1(t)) * (1-(0.5 * Qx+1(t)))

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(ii) Pmax(t+1) = Pmax(t) * [1-Qmax(t)] +

Pmax-1(t) * [1-Qmax-1(t)] +

OMmax(t) * (1-(0.5 * Qmax(t))) +

(0.5 * OMmax-1(t)) * (1-(0.5 * Qmax-1(t)))

Births were then calculated:

49 49

(iii) B(t) = 0.5*[ Σ(Fx(t)*Pf,x(t)) + Σ(Fx(t+1)*Pf,x(t+1))]

x=15 x=15

After constraining to projected Australian-level births, these were then used to calculate age 0 in the projected year:

(iv) P0(t+1)= B(t)*(1-Qb(t)) + (0.5*OM0(t)) * (1-(0.5*Q0(t)))

Interstate migration was calculated by applying departure rates to the ACT population and arrival rates to the population of the remaining States and Territories (to obtain numbers departing other States to reside in ACT). These rates were based on the assumptions provided by the ACT Treasury.

(v) DEPx(t+1) = Px(t+1) * DEPRATEx

(vi) ARRx(t+1) = Px(t+1)Non-NSW * ARRRATEx

The resulting total arrivals and departures were then scaled to a predetermined total net interstate migration assumption. Finally, the arrivals and departures by age and sex were scaled to the new arrival and departure totals, and then combined to give net age and sex interstate migration.

(vii) IMx(t+1) = ARRx(t+1) - DEPx(t+1)

Then add the interstate migration:

(viii) Px(t+1) = Px(t+1) + IMx(t+1)

To achieve coherent interstate migration figures, projections are concurrently run for all States, Territories and Australia. After constraining the sum of State age and sex population to the Australian-level (method described in Step 2), year t+1 then became the base for projecting the next year and the cycle was repeated until the final projection year was reached.

24

Step 2 – Statistical Area 2 Projections

This used the cohort component method to project all ACT SA2s. The formulae in Step 1 generally apply to the SA2 projections, except that the upper age is 85+, fertility rates are by 5yr age of mother, migration arrival rates were not used and Net Migration (overseas + inter-SA2) was used instead of overseas and inter-SA2 separately.

This slightly simpler approach to migration was warranted as the overseas component is negligible in most SA2s in comparison with inter-SA2 migration. Furthermore as an annual historical time-series only exists at the SA2 level for net migration, any overseas/inter-SA2 split can only be approximated using past Census data.

For ages 0 to maximum age - 1:

(xx) Px+1(t+1) = Px(t) * [1-Qx(t)]

(xxi) Pmax(t+1) = Pmax(t) * [1-Qmax(t)] + Pmax-1(t) * [1-Qmax-1(t)]

Births were then calculated:

45-49 45-49

(xxii) B(t) = 0.5*[Σ(Fx(t)*Pf,x(t)) + Σ(Fx(t+1) * Pf,x(t+1))] x=15-19 x=15-19

After constraining to projected Territory births, these were then used to calculate age 0 in the projected year:

(xxiii) P0(t+1) = B(t) * (1-Qb(t))

SA2 migration departures were calculated by applying 2011 Census-derived departure rates to the population:

(xxiv) DEPx(t+1) = Px(t+1) * DEPRATEx

Total SA2 arrivals were then derived using the pre-set net migration assumptions: x=max

(xxv) ARR(t+1) = NM(t+1) - Σ DEPx(t+1) x=0

(xxvi) The assumed age-specific arrival levels were derived from 2011 Census data. Together with departures from (xxiv) these were simultaneously constrained (via IPF - see xvii - xix) to:

(a) SA2 arrival and departure totals (from the previous 2 steps)(b) Territory age-specific net internal migration

25

Then the arrivals and departures were applied to the population projected so far:

(xxvii) Px(t+1) = Px(t+1) + ARRx(t+1) - DEPx(t+1)

After constraining the SA2 age/sex populations to sum to the Territory projections using iterative proportional fitting (method described in Step 2), year t+1 then became the base for projecting the next year and the cycle was repeated until the projection horizon was reached.

26

7.2 Detailed Tables

Table 7.1 Population Projections by District (Persons), 2015 - 2020District 2015(a) 2016(e) 2017 2018 2019 2020

Belconnen 96,600 97,244 97,905 98,601 99,317 100,040 % Change -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7Cotter-Namadgi1 3,707 5,448 7,242 9,101 11,027 13,025 % Change 122.8 47.0 32.9 25.7 21.2 18.1Fyshwick-Pialligo-Hume 1,482 1,481 1,481 1,480 1,478 1,476 % Change 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Gungahlin2 66,756 69,926 73,133 76,404 79,751 83,167 % Change 8.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3North Canberra 53,361 54,350 55,370 56,432 57,545 58,702 % Change 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0South Canberra 26,169 26,425 26,698 26,996 27,301 27,618 % Change 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2Tuggeranong 85,743 85,138 84,519 83,900 83,281 82,649 % Change -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8Weston Creek 22,462 22,093 21,726 21,356 20,986 20,611 % Change -3.3 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8Woden 34,426 34,446 34,475 34,510 34,535 34,551 % Change -0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0Total3 390,706 396,551 402,549 408,780 415,221 421,839 % Change 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6


(a) - actual

(e) - estimate

1Cotter-Namadgi includes the new and developing suburbs in the ACT South West (Coombs, Denman Prospect, Molonglo Town Centre,

Molonglo Stage 3, Wright and Molonglo (including Riverview).2Gungahlin includes the new development in Gungahlin East (Kenny and Throsby) and Gungahlin West (Jacka, Moncrieff and Taylor).

3 The new developments at Lawson, Molonglo, Gungahlin West, Gungahlin East and ACT South West were projected using the Environment

and Planning Directorate (EPD) projections for Dwelling Occupations. These areas were projected as a single 'new growth' area, and their

unique treatment may result in minor differences in the TOTAL ACT population by age and sex compared to the sum of individual SA2s, as

well as minor differences between the TOTAL for the above SA2s compared to the sum of their age and sex breakdown.

27

Table 7.2 Population Projections by Suburb (Persons), 2015 - 2020

SuburbActual2015 ACT Population Projection by Suburb

2016(e) 2017 2018 2019 2020Aranda 2,494 2,500 2,505 2,508 2,505 2,502 % Change -0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Belconnen 5,999 6,189 6,381 6,575 6,773 6,975 % Change -0.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 Bruce 7,451 7,614 7,785 7,963 8,149 8,336 % Change 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Charnwood 3,047 3,040 3,032 3,025 3,021 3,012 % Change -1.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 Cook 2,882 2,852 2,821 2,793 2,764 2,733 % Change -1.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 Dunlop 7,306 7,354 7,398 7,440 7,479 7,515 % Change 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Evatt 5,362 5,349 5,332 5,317 5,304 5,289 % Change -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 Florey 5,104 5,070 5,033 4,996 4,957 4,916 % Change -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 Flynn 3,528 3,498 3,466 3,438 3,409 3,380 % Change -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 Fraser 2,134 2,133 2,128 2,123 2,122 2,119 % Change -0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 Giralang 3,309 3,314 3,320 3,329 3,336 3,342 % Change 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Gooromon 4 4 4 4 4 4 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Hawker 2,861 2,849 2,841 2,829 2,819 2,808 % Change -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 Higgins 3,051 3,020 2,988 2,957 2,926 2,895 % Change -1.6 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 Holt 4,771 4,799 4,829 4,859 4,887 4,919 % Change -1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 Kaleen 7,540 7,525 7,505 7,488 7,467 7,447 % Change 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 Latham 3,540 3,479 3,419 3,358 3,294 3,229 % Change -1.9 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 Lawson 0 398 808 1,234 1,678 2,141 % Change 0.0 0.0 103.0 52.7 36.0 27.6 Macgregor 6,452 6,545 6,640 6,732 6,824 6,912 % Change 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 Macquarie 2,651 2,697 2,747 2,795 2,842 2,889 % Change 0.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 McKellar 2,864 2,869 2,874 2,877 2,878 2,878 % Change 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Melba 3,226 3,198 3,166 3,137 3,109 3,081 % Change -1.3 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9

Suburb Actual ACT Population Projection by Suburb

28

20152016(e) 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 2,923 2,912 2,903 2,898 2,896 2,895 % Change 0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 Scullin 2,857 2,845 2,838 2,832 2,828 2,825 % Change -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Spence 2,618 2,591 2,564 2,540 2,516 2,493 % Change -1.8 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 Weetangera 2,626 2,600 2,578 2,554 2,530 2,505 % Change -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 TOTAL - BELCONNEN 96,600 97,244 97,905 98,601 99,317 100,040 % Change -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ACT South West1 3,648 5,041 6,476 7,962 9,499 11,091 % Change 127.3 38.2 28.5 22.9 19.3 16.8 Molonglo2 28 376 735 1,108 1,497 1,903 % Change 0.0 1,242.9 95.5 50.7 35.1 27.1 Namadgi 31 31 31 31 31 31 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TOTAL - COTTER-NAMADGI 3,707 5,448 7,242 9,101 11,027 13,025 % Change 122.8 47.0 32.9 25.7 21.2 18.1 ACT East 869 868 868 867 865 863 % Change -0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Hume 320 320 320 320 320 320 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kowen 40 40 40 40 40 40 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Majura 253 253 253 253 253 253 % Change 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TOTAL - FYSHWICK-PIALLIGO-HUME 1,482 1,481 1,481 1,480 1,478 1,476 % Change 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Amaroo 5,778 5,849 5,913 5,978 6,042 6,105 % Change 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Bonner 4,992 5,215 5,436 5,654 5,875 6,091 % Change 9.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 Casey 4,327 4,674 5,024 5,376 5,735 6,097 % Change 13.7 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.3 Crace 3,690 3,980 4,279 4,583 4,894 5,217 % Change 28.2 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.6 Forde 4,184 4,368 4,552 4,735 4,918 5,099 % Change 13.9 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 Franklin 6,060 6,355 6,653 6,959 7,274 7,598 % Change 9.3 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 Gungahlin TC 5,846 5,862 5,876 5,894 5,911 5,927 % Change -2.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gungahlin East3 19 325 641 970 1,314 1,674 % Change 0.0 1,610.5 97.2 51.3 35.5 27.4


2016(e) 2017 2018 2019 202029

Gungahlin West4 453 1,413 2,400 3,419 4,475 5,569 % Change 123.2 211.9 69.9 42.5 30.9 24.4 Hall 339 339 339 339 339 339 % Change 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Harrison 8,445 8,725 9,005 9,284 9,563 9,841 % Change 22.8 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 Mitchell 9 9 9 9 9 9 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ngunnawal 10,063 10,342 10,623 10,908 11,195 11,483 % Change 6.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 Nicholls 6,842 6,802 6,760 6,716 6,670 6,622 % Change -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Palmerston 5,709 5,668 5,623 5,580 5,537 5,496 % Change -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 TOTAL - GUNGAHLIN 66,756 69,926 73,133 76,404 79,751 83,167 % Change 8.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 Acton 2,228 2,277 2,325 2,378 2,431 2,488 % Change 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 Ainslie 5,310 5,313 5,321 5,330 5,346 5,363 % Change 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Braddon 5,676 5,842 6,011 6,186 6,365 6,552 % Change 1.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Campbell 5,456 5,610 5,769 5,934 6,110 6,294 % Change 1.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 Civic 3,730 3,860 3,995 4,136 4,281 4,431 % Change 0.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Dickson 2,221 2,284 2,351 2,423 2,501 2,584 % Change -1.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 Downer 3,629 3,667 3,705 3,745 3,786 3,828 % Change 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Hackett 2,923 2,898 2,877 2,851 2,827 2,802 % Change -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 Lyneham 4,890 4,965 5,038 5,118 5,199 5,283 % Change -0.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 O'Connor 5,620 5,660 5,699 5,738 5,779 5,818 % Change 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Reid 1,758 1,792 1,826 1,862 1,900 1,939 % Change 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 Turner 3,983 4,053 4,127 4,204 4,287 4,373 % Change 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 Watson 5,937 6,129 6,326 6,527 6,733 6,947 % Change 0.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 TOTAL - NORTH CANBERRA 53,361 54,350 55,370 56,432 57,545 58,702 % Change 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0


2016(e) 2017 2018 2019 2020

30

Deakin 2,773 2,749 2,728 2,707 2,686 2,665 % Change -0.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 Forrest 1,631 1,643 1,655 1,667 1,678 1,689 % Change 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Griffith 4,204 4,255 4,308 4,363 4,418 4,474 % Change 2.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Kingston-Barton 5,333 5,535 5,734 5,939 6,149 6,363 % Change 0.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 Lake Burley Griffin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Narrabundah 6,024 6,095 6,176 6,268 6,362 6,463 % Change 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 Parkes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Red Hill 3,305 3,279 3,257 3,240 3,224 3,210 % Change -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 Yarralumla 2,899 2,869 2,840 2,812 2,784 2,754 % Change -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 TOTAL - SOUTH CANBERRA 26,169 26,425 26,698 26,996 27,301 27,618 % Change 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 Banks 4,959 4,924 4,888 4,853 4,817 4,779 % Change -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8Bonython 3,795 3,747 3,698 3,649 3,600 3,547 % Change -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5Calwell 5,682 5,643 5,605 5,567 5,528 5,489 % Change -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7Chisholm 5,186 5,168 5,145 5,119 5,094 5,069 % Change -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Conder 5,147 5,088 5,029 4,973 4,920 4,874 % Change -1.5 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9Fadden 3,055 3,034 3,012 2,991 2,970 2,948 % Change -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7Gilmore 2,772 2,747 2,724 2,700 2,673 2,646 % Change -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0Gordon 7,706 7,668 7,626 7,586 7,545 7,507 % Change -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Gowrie 3,007 2,987 2,969 2,951 2,930 2,905 % Change -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9Greenway 1,732 1,818 1,903 1,992 2,085 2,179 % Change -0.4 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5Isabella Plains 4,344 4,338 4,331 4,324 4,318 4,309 % Change -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2Kambah 15,158 15,019 14,874 14,723 14,569 14,410 % Change -1.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1


2016(e) 2017 2018 2019 2020Macarthur 1,455 1,440 1,425 1,410 1,397 1,385

31

% Change -1.2 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9Monash 5,413 5,363 5,317 5,271 5,226 5,179 % Change -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9Mount Taylor 3 3 3 3 3 3 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Oxley 1,750 1,737 1,723 1,710 1,697 1,682 % Change -1.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9Richardson 3,004 2,967 2,930 2,893 2,857 2,820 % Change -2.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3Theodore 3,914 3,871 3,828 3,784 3,738 3,691 % Change -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3Tuggeranong 31 31 31 31 31 31 % Change 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Wanniassa 7,630 7,545 7,458 7,370 7,283 7,196 % Change -1.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2TOTAL - TUGGERANONG 85,743 85,138 84,519 83,900 83,281 82,649 % Change -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 Chapman 2,686 2,640 2,595 2,549 2,502 2,457 % Change -2.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8Duffy 3,225 3,155 3,083 3,011 2,941 2,867 % Change -2.7 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.5Fisher 2,998 2,945 2,894 2,844 2,797 2,752 % Change -3.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6Holder 2,654 2,600 2,545 2,490 2,434 2,379 % Change -3.4 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3Rivett 3,016 2,955 2,893 2,828 2,763 2,696 % Change -2.5 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4Stirling 2,059 2,024 1,989 1,954 1,917 1,876 % Change -2.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1Waramanga 2,514 2,442 2,373 2,305 2,239 2,173 % Change -4.4 -2.9 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9Weston 3,310 3,332 3,354 3,375 3,393 3,411 % Change -4.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5TOTAL - WESTON CREEK 22,462 22,093 21,726 21,356 20,986 20,611 % Change -3.3 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 Chifley 2,705 2,720 2,732 2,744 2,754 2,762 % Change -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3Curtin 5,324 5,322 5,313 5,304 5,291 5,275 % Change -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3Farrer 3,445 3,433 3,422 3,411 3,400 3,388 % Change -1.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4Garran 3,396 3,405 3,417 3,430 3,441 3,454 % Change -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4


2016(e) 2017 2018 2019 2020Hughes 3,008 2,990 2,968 2,947 2,922 2,893 % Change -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0

32

Isaacs 2,370 2,351 2,331 2,310 2,291 2,272 % Change -1.2 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8Lyons 3,065 3,122 3,186 3,252 3,320 3,389 % Change 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1Mawson 3,084 3,067 3,055 3,043 3,030 3,019 % Change -2.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4O'Malley 956 965 974 983 992 1,000 % Change 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8Pearce 2,532 2,498 2,468 2,437 2,405 2,371 % Change -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4Phillip 2,314 2,378 2,444 2,514 2,583 2,654 % Change -0.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7Torrens 2,227 2,195 2,165 2,135 2,106 2,074 % Change -1.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5TOTAL - WODEN VALLEY 34,426 34,446 34,475 34,510 34,535 34,551 % Change -0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

TOTAL - ACT5 390,706 396,551 402,549 408,780 415,221 421,839 % Change 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6


(e) - estimate

1ACT South West includes the new and developing suburbs of Coombs, Denman Prospect, Molonglo Town Centre, Molonglo Stage 3 and

Wright.2Molonglo (including Riverview). Note: Molonglo Town Centre and Molonglo Stage 3 actually fall within the SA2 of Molonglo, however as this

large SA2 also includes Riverview, the decision was made that it would be more helpful to include these suburbs with Wright, Coombs and

Denman Prospect.3Gungahlin East includes the developing suburbs of Kenny and Throsby.4Gungahlin West includes the new and developing suburbs of Jacka, Moncrieff and Taylor.5The new developments at Lawson, Molonglo, Gungahlin West, Gungahlin East and ACT South West were projected using the Environment

and Planning Directorate (EPD) projections for Dwelling Occupations. These areas were projected as a single 'new growth' area, and their

unique treatment may result in minor differences in the TOTAL ACT population by age and sex compared to the sum of individual SA2s, as

well as minor differences between the TOTAL for the above SA2s compared to the sum of their age and sex breakdown.

33

Table 7.3 Population Projections by Age Cohort (Persons), 2015 - 2020

Age Cohort Actual Projection Year2015 2016(e) 2017 2018 2019 2020

0 - 4 27,238 27,578 27,977 28,265 28,581 28,8575 - 9 24,664 24,994 25,649 26,371 26,896 27,354

10 - 14 21,752 22,360 23,024 23,624 24,328 25,12215 - 19 23,031 24,074 24,041 24,227 24,509 24,84620 - 24 31,065 30,454 30,408 30,581 31,156 31,65325 - 29 33,861 34,329 34,467 34,370 34,005 33,62530 - 34 33,260 33,513 33,751 33,923 34,063 34,49435 - 39 28,576 29,342 30,289 31,391 32,294 33,05240 - 44 28,468 28,115 27,871 27,782 28,112 28,52345 - 49 25,586 26,669 27,596 28,274 28,591 28,83450 - 54 24,528 24,317 24,138 24,338 24,776 25,38955 - 59 22,151 22,536 22,936 23,049 23,167 23,14060 - 64 19,012 19,182 19,424 19,690 20,045 20,42565 - 69 16,720 16,949 16,840 17,024 17,226 17,39070 - 74 11,370 12,072 13,214 14,128 14,714 15,27575 - 79 8,063 8,382 8,807 9,210 9,741 10,32180 - 84 5,535 5,712 5,980 6,255 6,551 6,850

85+ 5,826 5,972 6,136 6,277 6,465 6,688Total 390,706 396,551 402,549 408,780 415,221 421,839

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3235.0 and ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate(e) - estimate

Table 7.4 Population Projections by Age Cohort (Males), 2015 - 2020


0 - 4 13,990 14,145 14,289 14,490 14,632 14,7715 - 9 12,665 12,865 13,215 13,487 13,718 13,977

10 - 14 11,117 11,483 11,870 12,177 12,558 12,87515 - 19 11,647 12,247 12,189 12,308 12,481 12,72720 - 24 15,944 15,636 15,639 15,710 16,019 16,22825 - 29 16,853 17,355 17,536 17,559 17,409 17,21730 - 34 16,794 16,874 16,987 17,043 17,102 17,41535 - 39 14,336 14,663 15,148 15,779 16,259 16,68640 - 44 14,188 14,088 14,020 13,997 14,214 14,35545 - 49 12,616 13,196 13,596 13,930 14,108 14,25950 - 54 12,043 11,936 11,888 11,982 12,227 12,54955 - 59 10,756 10,956 11,172 11,255 11,322 11,32360 - 64 9,196 9,252 9,367 9,501 9,582 9,80765 - 69 8,139 8,130 8,012 8,100 8,214 8,23670 - 74 5,349 5,732 6,254 6,639 6,919 7,20375 - 79 3,748 3,882 4,131 4,321 4,542 4,76980 - 84 2,420 2,474 2,584 2,728 2,909 3,067

85+ 2,115 2,244 2,333 2,405 2,481 2,598Total 193,916 197,159 200,231 203,412 206,697 210,063


34

Table 7.5 Population Projections by Age Cohort (Females), 2015 - 2020


0 - 4 13,248 13,433 13,688 13,775 13,949 14,0865 - 9 11,999 12,129 12,434 12,884 13,178 13,377

10 - 14 10,635 10,877 11,154 11,447 11,770 12,24715 - 19 11,384 11,827 11,852 11,919 12,028 12,11920 - 24 15,121 14,818 14,769 14,871 15,137 15,42525 - 29 17,008 16,974 16,931 16,811 16,596 16,40830 - 34 16,466 16,639 16,764 16,880 16,961 17,07935 - 39 14,240 14,679 15,141 15,612 16,035 16,36640 - 44 14,280 14,027 13,851 13,785 13,898 14,16845 - 49 12,970 13,473 14,000 14,344 14,483 14,57550 - 54 12,485 12,381 12,250 12,356 12,549 12,84055 - 59 11,395 11,580 11,764 11,794 11,845 11,81760 - 64 9,816 9,930 10,057 10,189 10,463 10,61865 - 69 8,581 8,819 8,828 8,924 9,012 9,15470 - 74 6,021 6,340 6,960 7,489 7,795 8,07275 - 79 4,315 4,500 4,676 4,889 5,199 5,55280 - 84 3,115 3,238 3,396 3,527 3,642 3,783

85+ 3,711 3,728 3,803 3,872 3,984 4,090Total 196,790 199,392 202,318 205,368 208,524 211,776


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Table 7.6 Population Projections by Age Cohort and by Gender, 2015 - 2020 Projected ACT Population Growth

Male Female Persons Males Females Persons Persons Per cent0-14 15-64 65+ 0-14 15-64 65+ 0-14 15-64 65+

193,916 196,790 390,706 37,772 134,373 21,771 35,882 135,165 25,743 73,654 269,538 47,514 5,360 1.4%

197,159 199,392 396,551 38,493 136,203 22,462 36,439 136,328 26,625 74,932 272,532 49,087 5,845 1.5%200,231 202,318 402,549 39,374 137,542 23,314 37,276 137,379 27,663 76,650 274,922 50,977 5,998 1.5%203,412 205,368 408,780 40,154 139,064 24,193 38,106 138,561 28,701 78,260 277,626 52,894 6,231 1.5%206,697 208,524 415,221 40,908 140,723 25,065 38,897 139,995 29,632 79,805 280,719 54,697 6,441 1.6%210,063 211,776 421,839 41,623 142,566 25,873 39,710 141,415 30,651 81,333 283,982 56,524 6,618 1.6%

Source: ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate

(a) - actual

(e) - estimate

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ACT Population Projection: 2007 to 2052 · Web viewACT population projections are based on an initial ... 84 5,535 5,712 5,980 6,255 6,551 6,850 85+ 5,826 5,972 6,136 6,277 6,465