Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio - midias.cebri.orgmidias.cebri.org/arquivo/cebri15_vera1.pdf · • Regras de origem • Subsídios ... Mercosul – Palestina 20.12.2011 - *União

Acordos Preferenciais de

Comércio:

da multiplicação de novas

regras aos mega-acordos

comerciais

2013

Prof. Vera Thorstensen

2

Brasil

Regras Nacionais UE, EUA, China, Índia,

África do Sul…

Regras Preferenciais Acordos Regionais, Bilaterais e Não Recíprocos

Regras Multilaterais OMC (DSB), FMI, BM, OCDE, UNCTAD, FAO, OMPI

Análise Transversal do Sistema Multilateral de Comércio

3

Lógica das Transnacionais

• “Trade in tasks” (cadeias de valor)

• Sem Tarifas, AD, CVM, Salv., ou

RO preferenciais

• Investimento, concorrência,

Propriedade Intelectual

• Harmonização de padrões

(TBT/SPS/privados)

• ARBITRAGEM

Lógica dos Estados

• Comércio de bens

• Tarifas, quotas

• AD, CVM, salvaguardas

• Regras de origem

• Subsídios

• SOLUÇÃO CONTROVÉRSIAS

Sistema dos Estados x Sistema das Transnacionais

DESAFIOS

ACORDOS PREFERENCIAIS

4

A Evolução dos APCs no mundo

Fonte: OMC

5

APCs firmados e em negociação pelos países da Am. Latina

6

Chile Colômbia Equador México Peru Bolívia Venezuela

Austrália

Canadá

Chile -

China

Cingapura

Colômbia -

Coréia do Sul *

EFTA

EUA

Índia

Japão

México -

Nova Zelândia -

Peru

Turquia

UE

Aliança

Pacífico

TPP

Firmado Fontes: Sítios virtuais dos ministérios e secretarias de comércio exterior dos países

selecionados / elaboração CCGI / *ratificação pendente Em negociação

APCs do Mercosul

Acordo Data de

Assinatura

Data de Entrada

em Vigor

Mercosul – Índia 25.01.2004 01.06.2009

Mercosul – Israel 18.12.2007 39.04.2010

Mercosul – SACU* 03.04.2009 -

Mercosul – Egito 02.08.2010 -

Mercosul – Palestina 20.12.2011 -

*União Aduaneira do Sul da África (África do Sul, Botsuana, Lesoto, Namíbia e Suazilândia) Fonte: Mercosul

7

Volume de Comércio: Brasil e parceiros dos APCs

Exportações Importações

País US$ FOB Participação

no total (%)

US$ FOB Participação

no total (%)

Egito 2.711.858.469 1,12 251.416.679 0,11

Índia 5.576.930.397 2,30 5.042.842.814 2,26

Israel 376.063.459 0,16 1.143.543.923 0,51

Palestina 22.479.493 0,01 87.644 -

SACU 1.792.960.861 0,74 852.462.301 0,38

Fonte: Secex, 2012

8

APCs em negociação

Acordo Status

Marrocos Acordo-Quadro prevendo a negociação de uma zona de livre comércio assinado em 2004

Conselho de Cooperação do

Golfo – CCG*

Acordo-Quadro prevendo a negociação de uma zona de livre comércio assinado em 2005,

última reunião de negociação em 2012

SACU e Índia Negociação de um APC baseado nos acordos já existentes

Sistema de Integração Centro-

Americana – SICA**

Projeto lançado em 2004, realização de reuniões exploratórias até 2010

Paquistão Acordo-Quadro prevendo a negociação de uma zona de livre comércio assinado em 2006

Jordânia Acordo-Quadro prevendo a negociação de uma zona de livre comércio assinado em 2008

Turquia Acordo-Quadro prevendo a negociação de uma zona de livre comércio assinado em 2010

União Européia Relançamento das negociações em 2010, consulta pública pela Secex em 2012 para

atualização do posicionamento do setor privado brasileiro (Circular Secex n.44/12)***

Canadá Abertura de consultas pela Secex, em 2012, sobre eventual lançamento de negociações

(Circular Secex n.45/12).

*Omã, Emirados Árabes Unidos, Arábia Saudita, Qatar, Bahrein e Kuwait

**Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicarágua e Panamá.

*** As negociações para a negociação de um APC com a União Européia foram lançadas em 1994 e interrompidas em 2004. Fonte: Ministério das Relações Exteriores

9

Volume de Comércio: Brasil e parceiros dos APCs em negociação

País Exportação Importação

Vol. (US$) Part. (%) Vol. (USS) Part. (%)

Marrocos 872.306.154 0,36 1.281.171.583 0,57

Conselho de Cooperação do

Golfo – CCG

7.630.448.591

3,15

5.247.439.709

2,35

Sistema de Integração Centro-

Americana - SICA

1.450.388.863

0,60

562.072.694

0,25

Paquistão 192.875.684 0,08 92.331.983 0,04

Jordânia 215.640.783 0,09 1.933.138 ---

Turquia 1.207.133.102 0,50 964.114.176 0,43

UE 48.859.641.610 20,14 47.661.649.903 21,36

Canadá 3.079.926.642 1,27 3.072.137.103 1,38

Fonte: Secex, 2012

10

EXCHANGE RATES AND

TRADE

OBSERVATORY ON EXCHANGE RATES SÃO PAULO SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

FGV-SP 2013

Prof. Vera Thorstensen, Prof. Emerson Marçal, Prof. Lucas Ferraz

Big Mac Index – 1/2013 e 7/2013

12

IMF Estimates of Exchange Rate Misalignments (6/2012)

Pilot External Sector Report

13

IMF Estimates of Exchange Rate Misalignments (6/2013)

Pilot External Sector Report

14

Misalignment from FEER – Cline and Williamson

15

Exchange rate misalignments 2010 - 2012 (Shin, Johansen, Engle-Granger) FGV

16

Exchange Rate Misalignments FGV 2012

17

Exchange Rate Misalignments FGV 7/2013

18

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%Ex

chan

ge R

ate

Mis

alig

nm

en

t

Exchange Rate Misalignment - Selected Countries

2011

2012

2013

Brazil: real exchange rate, fundamentals and exchange rate misalignments

(annually) - 7/ 2013

19

Source: Observatory on Exchange Rate - EESP/FGV (2013)

Source: Observatory on Exchange Rate (2013)

BRASIL: Desalinhamento cambial

Diversas metodologias

20

US: real exchange rate, fundamentals and exchange rate misalignments (annually)

7/2013

21

Source: Observatory on Exchange Rate - EESP/FGV (2013)

China: real exchange rate, fundamentals and exchange rate misalignments

(annually) 7/2013

22

Sources: Misalignment estimates – Observatory on Exchange Rate - EESP/FGV (2013)

China Real Effective Exchange Rate China Fundamentals

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

100

150

200China Real Effective Exchange Rate China Fundamentals

Exchange Rate Misalignment

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-50

0

50

Exchange Rate Misalignment

European Area: Exchange Rate Misalignments FGV

(2009 – 2011)

23

“Tariffication” of exchange rate misalignments

To exam the impact of exchange rate misalignments on trade, one possibility is to transform a misaligment into a tariff and then

to adjust the import tariff of each country, through a “tariffication” exercise.

An overvalued exchange rate has the effect of reducing or nullifying the import tariffs of the overvalued country, creating an

incentive to imports from third countries.

An undervalued exchange rate, on the other hand, will give an incentive to exports from the undervalued country. A country’s

undervalued currency will have the effect of increasing its import tariffs, sometimes above the bound levels at the WTO.

The equation used to “tarifficate” the effects of exchange rate misalignments is presented in the next slide

24

Tariffication of Exchange Rates

25

Simulations regarding the effects of exchange rate misalignments on selected Tariff

Profiles

Using the “tariffication methodology”, one can represent the effects of exchange rate misalignments on a country Tariff Profile.

The Tariff Profile is comprised of bound tariffs and applied tariffs

Bound tariffs are the tariffs negotiated at the WTO as the maximum permitted level of an import tariff.

Applied tariffs are the import tariffs actually applied by a country and notified to the WTO

After applying the “tariffication methodology” the results are adjusted bound and applied tariffs that represent the actual level

of protection of a given country.

In the following slides we present the simulations for Brazil, US and EU Tariff Profiles, considering the effects of the exchange

rate misalignments of selected countries.

26

Impacts of Exchange Rates on China Tariff Profile China devaluation in 2012 (17%)

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

1 - 4 - 7 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 22 - 25 - 28 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 43 - 46 - 49 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 - 73 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 85 - 88 - 91 - 94 - 97 -

China Tariffs x Adjusted Tariffs - Effects of China 17% Exchange Rate Devaluation (2012) Simple averages at HS 2 digits - source WTO

Applied Tariffs (simpleaverage)

Adjusted AppliedTariffs: China - 14%

Bound Tariffs (simpleaverage)

Cereals Sugar

Wool

Meat Footwear

Vehicles

Musical instruments

Miscelaneous manufactured articles

Furskins

Clothing

Tobacco

27

Impacts of Exchange Rates on China Tariff Profile (2012) Ch-Brazil (37%), Ch-Germany (13%), Ch-US (12%) Bilateral Misalignments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1 - 4 - 7 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 22 - 25 - 28 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 43 - 46 - 49 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 - 73 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 85 - 88 - 91 - 94 - 97 -

China Tariffs x Adjusted Tariffs - Effects of Selected Countries Exchange Rate Deviations (2012) Simple averages at HS 2 digits

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -effect of CH + BRdeviations - 37%

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -effect of GER + CHdeviations: 13%

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -effect of CH + USAdeviations: 12%

Bound Tariffs (simpleaverage)

Applied Tariffs (simpleaverage)

Brazilian exporter (2012)

American exporter

German exporter

28

Impacts of Exchange Rates on US Tariff Profile US devaluation in 2012 (5%)

141%

153%

146%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1 - 4 - 7 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 22 - 25 - 28 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 43 - 46 - 49 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 - 73 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 85 - 88 - 91 - 94 - 97 -

USA Applied Tariffs x Adjusted Tariffs - Effects of USA Exchange Rate Devaluation Simple averages at HS 2 digits - source WTO (2010)

Applied tariffs

Adjusted appliedtariffs: USA - 5%

Bound tariffs

Dairy

Tobacco

vegetables

LeatherWool

Cotton

Clothing

Footwear

Locomotive

29

Impacts of Exchange Rates on US Tariff Profile (2012) US-Brazil (25%), US-Spain (9,5%), US-China (12%) Bilateral Misalignments

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 - 4 - 7 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 22 - 25 - 28 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 43 - 46 - 49 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 - 73 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 85 - 88 - 91 - 94 - 97 -

USA Applied Tariffs x Adjusted Tariffs - Effects of Selected Countries Deviations (Article I)Simple averages at HS 2 digits - Except HS sector 24 (Tabacco)

Adjusted applied tariffs -effect of USA + BR: 25%

Adjusted applied tariffs -effect of USA + SPAIN:9,5%

Bound tariffs

Applied tariffs

Adjusted applied tariffs -effect of USA + CH: 12%

Dairy vegetables

Leather Wool

Cotton

ClothingFootwear

LocomotiveBrazilianexporter

Spanishexporter

Chineseexporter

30

Impacts of Exchange Rates on Brazil Tariff Profile Brazil Overvaluation in 2012 (20%)

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 - 4 - 7 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 22 - 25 - 28 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 43 - 46 - 49 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 - 73 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 85 - 88 - 91 - 94 - 97 -

Brazil Tariffs x Adjusted Tariffs - Effects of Brazil Exchange Rate Overvaluation (2012) Simple averages at HS 2 digits

Bound Tariffs (simple averages)

Applied Tariffs

Adjusted Bound Tariffs -Exchange Rate Overvaluation BR + 20%

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -Exchange Rate Overvaluation BR + 20%

DairySugar Beverages

Tobacco

Leather

Cotton

Clothing

SteelTools

Vehicles

31

32

Impacts of Exchange Rates on Brazil Tariff Profile Brazil-China (37%), Brazil-US (25%), Brazil-Germany (24%) Bilateral

Misalignments in 2012

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1 - 4 - 7 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 22 - 25 - 28 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 43 - 46 - 49 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 - 73 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 85 - 88 - 91 - 94 - 97 -

Brazilian Market Adjusted for Multiple Exchange Rate Misalignments Simple averages at HS 2 digits

Applied Tariffs

Brazilian Producer

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -effect of BR + GER: 24%

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -effect of BR + USA: 25%

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -effect of BR + CH: 37%

Dairy

Sugar

Beverages

TobaccoLeather Cotton

Clothing

Steel

Tools

Vehicles

33

Impacts of Exchange Rates on EU Tariff Profile Brazil (40%), US (7%), China (14%) Misalignments in 2011 and Brazil

(15%) in 06/2012

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1 - 4 - 7 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 22 - 25 - 28 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 43 - 46 - 49 - 52 - 55 - 58 - 61 - 64 - 67 - 70 - 73 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 85 - 88 - 91 - 94 - 97 -

EU Market - Effects of Selected Countries Deviations (Article I) Simple averages at HS 2 digits - Exchange rate misalignments for 2011-12

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -Exchange Rate Overvaluation BR - 40%

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -Exchange Rate Overvaluation BR - 15%

(06/2012)

Bound Tariffs

Applied Tariffs

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -Exchange Rate Devaluation USA - 7%

Adjusted Applied Tariffs -Exchange Rate Devaluation China - 14%

Brazilianexporter (2011)

Brazilian exporter (06/2012)

American exporter

Chineseexporter

Conclusions

- Countries with overvalued exchange rates (Brazil) have their negotiated

tariffs reduced or nullified.

- Countries with undervalued exchange rates (USA, China) grant subsidies to

their exports and their applied tariffs surpass the bound levels agreed at the

WTO.

- Substantial and persistent exchange rate misalignments significantly affect

or nullify most WTO rules:

tariffs, antidumping, countervailing measures, safeguards, rules of origin,

regional agreements, DSB retaliations…

- Problem:

the WTO does not have adequate rules to address the exchange rate issue

34

- Create a world currency

- Negotiate a fluctuation band

- Solve the conflict bilaterally

A NEW PROPOSAL

35

Exchange Rate Misalignment Bands

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4Ja

n-60

Apr

-61

Jul-6

2

Oct

-63

Jan-

65

Apr

-66

Jul-6

7

Oct

-68

Jan-

70

Apr

-71

Jul-7

2

Oct

-73

Jan-

75

Apr

-76

Jul-7

7

Oct

-78

Jan-

80

Apr

-81

Jul-8

2

Oct

-83

Jan-

85

Apr

-86

Jul-8

7

Oct

-88

Jan-

90

Apr

-91

Jul-9

2

Oct

-93

Jan-

95

Apr

-96

Jul-9

7

Oct

-98

Jan-

00

Apr

-01

Jul-0

2

Oct

-03

Jan-

05

Apr

-06

Jul-0

7

Oct

-08

Jan-

10

Apr

-11

Jul-1

2

Normalized PPP - Trade weight world basket

United States Brazil Australia Austria Belgium Canada

China France Germany India Italy Japan

South Korea Mexico Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland

United Kingdom Malaysia +- 2 S.D. +- 1 S.D.

36

Conclusão

OMC determina se uma medida cambial frustra seus objetivos

Deve consultar com o FMI, aceitar statistical findings e, no que couber, se a medida respeita as obrigações do FMI

Outras exchange actions que não exchange restrictions or control ou multiple currency practices, não precisam ser analisadas pelo FMI quanto à sua regularidade com o fundo. Dito de outro modo, mesmo que feitas respeitando as obrigações do FMI, nada impede que violem o GATT.

Pergunta: Quais seriam essas outras exchange actions?

Suspeita: Exchange Rate Intervention

37

Brazil and new PTAs Which one:

US, EU, Ch, Ind, Can, Mex, … or

only SA? Results of the Simulations

Prof. Vera Thorstensen e Prof. Lucas Ferraz

Center on Global Trade

EESP/FGV

Simulation 1 – Brazil x US – EU – China – SAm

Hypothesis:

US and EU

Partial liberalization on Agriculture = 50% reduction

Full liberalization on Industry + Services

China

Full liberalization on Agriculture + Agribusiness

Partial liberalization on Industry + Services = 50% reduction (Brazil)

South America

Full liberalization

Variation on GDP and Classification:

Variation on GDP (%) Classification

0 – 1 (+) or (-)

1 – 2 (++) or (--)

2 – 3 (+++) or (---)

More than 3 (++++) or (----)


Summary of gains - GDP by sector

EU 27 US China SAm

Agriculture 15 18 13 5

Industry 5 14 12 9

Services 0 5 5 3

+ 10 32 28 17

++ 4 4 2 0

+++ 1 0 0 0

++++ 5 1 0 0

Total 20 37 30 17

Macroeconomic outlook

Macroeconomic Variables EU 27 US China SAm

Increase in bilateral exports (US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 9,967 2,590 4,782 2,181

Increase in bilateral exports % 20.4% 9.7% 11.6% 17.7%

Increase in bilateral imports (US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 20,447 13,946 12,432 226

Increase in bilateral imports % 42.9% 43.1% 36,3% 2.2%

Terms of trade 0.2% -0.3% 0,0% 0.2%

Real wage 0.0% 0.0% 0,0% 0,0%

Capital gains 0.2% 0.1% 0,1% 0.0%

Land gains 15.2% 2.8% 1,8% -0.3%

Real exchange rate 0.4% -0.2% 0,0% 0.2%


GDP by sector – Agriculture

Agriculture EU 27 US China South America

Paddy rice + + - -

Wheat + + + -

Other cereals ++ + + -

Vegetables/fruits ++ + - -

Oil seeds - + ++ -

Sugar (cane&beet) +++ + + +

Plant fibres - + + +

Other crops (unprepared) + ++ + -

Cattle, horses, sheeps ++++ + + -

Animal products ++++ + + -

Raw milk - - - +

Wool, silk - + - -

Forestry products + + - -

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses ++++ + + -

Meat products ++++ + + -

Vegetables oils and fats + + + -

Processed rice - - - -

Sugar ++++ + + +

Food products (animal feed) ++ + + +

Beverage, Tobacco products + + - -

Total (No. of positive results) 15 18 13 5

Simulation 1 – Brazil x US – EU – China – Sam

GDP by sector – Industry

Industry EU 27 US China South America

Extractive

Fishing + + + -

Coal - + + -

Oil - + + -

Gas - + + -

Minerals - + + -

Manufacturing

Textiles - ++ -- +

Apparel - + - +

Leather products ++ ++++ ++ +

Wood products + ++ - -

Paper products - - + -

Petroleum products - + + -

Chemical, rubber, plastics -- - + +

Mineral (non-metallic) - + - +

Iron, steel --- - - +

Metals (non-ferrous) + + + -

Metal products --- - - +

Motor vehicles and parts - + + +

Transport equipament + ++ + -

Electronic equipment - - - -

Machinery and equipment ---- --- - -

Manufactures - - - +



GDP by sector – Services

Services EU 27 US China South America

Electricity - + + -

Gas distribution - + - -

Water - - + +

Construction - - - -

Trade - - - +

Transport - - + -

Water transport - + + -

Air transport - + - -

Communication - - - -

Financial services - - - -

Insurance - - - -

Business services - + - -

Recreation and other serv. - - + -

Public administration - - - -

Dwellings - - - +



EU 27 US China South America

Agriculture

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

Paddy rice -1,2 11,76 1,92 0,4 8,95 -0,52 -0,02 0,02 0,03 -0,45 1,78 0,7

Wheat -28,68 -1,27 1,97 -2,1 3,07 0,21 -1,7 -0,11 0,12 -3,59 -0,71 0,24

Other cereals 9,07 0,8 4,13 3,36 0,15 -0,02 -0,9 -0,03 0,12 -2,81 -0,11 0,18

Vegetables/fruits 47,88 6,69 2,27 3,2 0,47 0,19 -4,03 0,12 0,86 -4,12 -0,28 0,26

Oil seeds -18,84 -0,27 0,56 11,68 0,17 -0,04 160,53 2,36 2,75 -7,89 -0,11 0,27

Sugar (cane&beet) -0,2 -5,89 2,84 0 -0,01 0,05 -0,03 -0,96 0,58 -0,02 -0,68 0,36

Plant fibres 3,4 0,4 -1,07 -9,48 0,57 9,89 73

,15 14,32 -0,22 -2,57 -0,29 0,88

Other crops (unprepared) 102,34 1,96 4,02 374,09 6,54 2,66 84,09 1,48 0,8 -30,77 -0,50 0,51

Cattle, horses, sheeps -39,43 -14,47 32,38 -0,19 -0,03 0,5 -0,32 -0,12 0,2 -1,25 -0,56 0,25

Animal products -22,94 -3,56 8,06 -0,41 0,29 1,11 -1,91 -0,03 1,41 0,15 0,09 0,14

Raw milk -0,02 -0,8 0,24 0,07 1,82 -1,12 0 -0,09 0,05 -0,05 -1,32 0,8

Wool, silk -1,32 -3,33 26,63 0,24 1,77 -1,18 -0,04 -0,42 -0,07 -0,23 -1,74 1,02

Forestry products -0,47 0,15 2,44 -0,46 0,43 2,76 0,08 0,34 0,07 -0,35 -0,59 0,92

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses 3719,34 104,52 21,27 22,33 0,69 1,68 -4,77 -0,1 0,86 -17,21 -0,45 0,74

Meat products 1513,08 21,43 29,1 93,93 1,36 12,64 68,22 0,98 7,16 -34,81 -0,49 0,72

Vegetables oils and fats -37,63 0,71 13,46 32,86 0,84 0,58 150,71 3,69 1,29 -3,17 -0,01 0,55

Processed rice 1,72 4,4 0,62 1,64 1,11 -0,47 -0,07 0,03 0,04 -1,10 -0,45 0,42

Sugar 588,58 11,74 4,66 126,65 2,53 4,06 109,05 2,18 9,92 15,08 0,30 0,52

Food products (animal feed) 249,35 9,21 5,43 42,84 2,11 2,17 29,54 1,25 1,02 20,86 0,74 0,39

Beverage, Tobacco products -4,42 4,11 9,79 8,8 0,6 0,11 -0,72 -0,01 0,07 -2,26 -0,04 0,22

Trade Balance: Agriculture


Trade Balance: Industry

Industry EU 27 US China South America

Extractive ∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Import

s

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

Fishing 0,62 3,34 0,60 0,64 0,72 -0,31 -0,06 -0,02 0,04 -0,34 -0,17 0,24

Coal 6,64 0,23 -0,53 -1,19 0,02 0,09 -0,16 0,50 0,01 0,18 0,70 -0,01

Oil 17,66 0,09 -0,15 -2,93 0,07 0,09 -6,78 -0,04 0,05 -16,53 -0,18 0,07

Gas 8,50 7,43 -0,87 2,09 2,45 -0,21 -0,40 -0,24 0,04 -0,40 -1,09 0,04

Minerals 32,56 0,01 -1,01 21,45 0,05 -0,36 9,31 0,06 0,07 -9,87 -0,05 -0,01

Manufacturing

Textiles -138,57 5,32 7,75 139,26 16,7 4,09 -207,95 2,33 8,58 54,01 4,90 0,74

Apparel -49,15 18,67 20,32 57,64 28,68 6,35 -91,21 2,74 18,68 -1,49 0,81 0,76

Leather products 228,05 7,16 13,58 707,13 16,78 2,35 226,89 9,15 28,42 36,51 0,98 0,97

Wood products 103,86 4,80 26,69 126,68 3,55 7,39 -2,11 0,30 3,78 -4,22 -0,04 0,64

Paper products -200,78 0,37 12,83 -11,45 1,58 4,94 8,37 0,34 0,41 -14,92 -0,14 0,50

Petroleum products 61,79 0 -0,62 81,62 1,29 -0,07 -1,97 0,04 0,04 -9,61 -0,1 0,04

Chemical, rubber, plastics -1330,58 1,71 5,74 -864,54 3,34 4,70 75,98 2,03 0,60 7,75 1,52 0,63

Mineral (non-metallic) -94,77 0,57 12,17 199,36 9,93 4,45 -20,24 0,48 3,58 12,86 0,75 0,58

Iron, steel -151,53 0,61 10,39 113,86 1,65 1,64 37,01 0,88 2,07 1,17 0,16 0,64

Metals (non-ferrous) 320,68 5,19 0,46 176,51 2,49 -0,4 76,39 0,98 -0,35 -62,99 -0,85 0,21

Metal products -677,68 0,18 32,27 -151,12 2,13 9,06 -90,68 1,26 5,42 29,58 2,32 0,67

Motor vehicles and parts -519,61 5,06 13,01 21,60 1,86 2,64 76,27 0,63 0,19 430,82 3,33 0,74

Transport equipament 47,91 2,32 1,04 100,87 4,00 1,52 35,05 1,14 0,35 -27,37 -0,43 0,07

Electronic equipment -212,66 1,43 2,96 -309,6 3,49 4,81 -348,73 1,46 4,53 -17,56 0,96 0,55

Machinery and equipment -2627,32 3,02 13,53 -1213,15 3,6 7,57 -228,98 1,95 2,19 -11,56 0,63 0,43

Manufactures -114,21 0,74 14,42 -94,76 2,62 13,25 -110,59 1,89 14,72 10,25 2,99 0,65


EU 27 US China South America

Services ∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

Electricity -7,85 -1,02 0,30 7,63 0,95 -0,30 -0,20 0,01 0,01 -6,45 -0,85 0,25

Gas distribution -0,37 0,69 0,20 -0,11 0,86 0,10 -0,06 0,04 0,03 -0,28 -0,41 0,10

Water -0,33 -0,58 0,33 0,69 1,21 -0,7 0,03 0,06 -0,02 -0,47 -0,84 0,46

Construction 0,08 0,05 -0,03 1,42 0,87 -0,61 0,19 0,12 -0,08 -0,85 -0,54 0,35

Trade -13,09 -0,45 0,26 25,29 0,69 -0,58 1,41 0,04 -0,03 -18,91 -0,58 0,40

Transport -5,55 -0,15 0,14 21,84 0,60 -0,53 1,15 0,04 -0,02 -15,02 -0,44 0,34

Water transport -5,73 -0,07 0,09 24,51 0,38 -0,32 2,81 0,06 -0,01 -15,89 -0,25 0,19

Air transport -5,04 -0,16 0,11 15,70 0,41 -0,37 0,83 0,03 -0,01 -10,23 -0,3 0,23

Communication -1,82 -0,37 0,02 5,73 0,75 -0,61 0,40 0,05 -0,05 -3,98 -0,56 0,37

Financial services -4,75 -0,51 -0,02 18,03 0,75 -0,62 1,04 0,01 -0,06 -12,45 -0,58 0,39

Insurance -6,04 -0,48 0,23 10,25 0,72 -0,47 0,51 0,02 -0,03 -8,01 -0,58 0,35

Business services -60,51 -0,4 0,15 129,69 0,73 -0,42 6,03 0,03 -0,02 -98,75 -0,57 0,31

Recreation and other

serv. -7,74 -0,4 0,25 17,38 0,76 -0,61 1,05 0,06 -0,03 -11,77 -0,58 0,40

Public administration -17,76 -0,39 0,23 43,26 0,82 -0,65 1,65 0,04 -0,02 -28,36 -0,58 0,40

Dwellings 0 0,12 0,12 0 -0,23 -0,23 0 -0,01 -0,01 0 0,22 0,22

Trade Balance: Services

Simulation 2 – Mercosul (5) x US – EU – SAm

Hypothesis:

US and EU

Partial liberalization on Agriculture = 50% reduction

Full liberalization on Industry + Services

South America

Full liberalization



0 – 1 (+) or (-)

1 – 2 (++) or (--)

2 – 3 (+++) or (---)

More than 3 (++++) or (----)




EU 27 US SAm

Agriculture 17 19 9

Industry 7 14 7

Services 1 5 4

+ 12 32 18

++ 5 5 1

+++ 3 0 1

++++ 5 1 0

Total 25 38 20

Macroeconomic Variables EU 27 US SAm

Increase in bilateral exports (US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 10,015 2,697 1,898

Increase in bilateral exports % 20.5% 10.1% 15.4%

Increase in bilateral imports (US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 19,970 13,752 267

Increase in bilateral imports % 41.9% 42.5% 2.6%

Terms of trade 0.0% -0.4% 0.4%

Real wage 0,0% 0.0% 0.1%

Capital gains 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Land gains 15.7% 3.0% -0.3%

Real exchange rate 0.2% -0.3% 0.5%

Simulation 2 – Mercosul (5) x US – EU – Am


Agriculture EU 27 US SAm

Paddy rice + + +

Wheat + + -

Other cereals ++ + -

Vegetables/fruits +++ + -

Oil seeds + + -

Sugar (cane&beet) +++ + +

Plant fibres - + +

Other crops (unprepared) + ++ -

Cattle, horses, sheeps ++++ + +

Animal products ++++ + -

Raw milk - - +

Wool, silk - + -

Forestry products + + -

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses ++++ + +

Meat products ++++ + -

Vegetables oils and fats + + -

Processed rice + + +

Sugar ++++ + +

Food products (animal feed) ++ + +

Beverage, Tobacco products + + -

Total (No. of positive result)s 17 19 9



Industry EU 27 US SAm

Extractive

Fishing + + -

Coal + + -

Oil + + -

Gas - + -

Minerals - + -

Manufacturing

Textiles - ++ +

Apparel - + +

Leather products +++ ++++ ++

Wood products ++ ++ -

Paper products - + -

Petroleum products - + -

Chemical, rubber, plastics -- - -

Mineral (non-metallic) - + +

Iron, steel --- - -

Metals (non-ferrous) ++ ++ --

Metal products --- - +

Motor vehicles and parts --- - +++

Transport equipament ++ ++ --

Electronic equipment - - -

Machinery and equipment ---- --- -

Manufactures - - +

Total (No. of positive results) 7 14 7



Services EU 27 US SAm

Electricity - + -

Gas distribution - + -

Water - - +

Construction - - -

Trade - - +

Transport - - -

Water transport + + -

Air transport - + -

Communication - - -

Financial services - - -

Insurance - - -

Business services - + -

Recreation and other serv. - - -

Public administration - - +

Dwellings - - +

Total (No. of positive results) 1 5 4

Simulation 3– Brazil and Mercosul (5) x US – EU – China – SAm

Hypothesis :

Full liberalization



0 – 1 (+) or (-)

1 – 2 (++) or (--)

2 – 3 (+++) or (---)

More than 3 (++++) or (----)

Simulation 3 – Brazil and Mercosul (5) x US – EU – China – SAm



EU 27 US China SAm

BR MER BR MER BR MER MER MER

Agriculture 9 12 16 17 17 16 5 9

Industry 1 1 14 12 14 8 9 7

Services 4 3 5 2 6 2 3 4

+ 5 7 30 25 31 11 17 18

++ 0 0 2 3 6 8 0 1

+++ 2 2 2 2 0 2 0 1

++++ 7 7 1 1 0 5 0 0

Total 14 16 35 31 37 26 17 20

Macroeconomic Variables EU 27 US China SAm

BR MER BR MER BR MER BR MER

Increase in bilateral exports

(US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 29,264 27,994 3,524 3,418 5,112 4,205 2,181 1,898

Increase in bilateral exports % 59.9% 57.3% 13.2% 12.8% 12,4% 10,2% 17.7% 15.4%

Increase in bilateral imports

(US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 23,402 23,211 14,172 14,042 29,864 32,193 226 267

Increase in bilateral imports % 49.1% 48.7% 43.8% 43.4% 87,2% 94,0% 2.2% 2.6%

Terms of trade 3.6% 3.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0,3% -0,1% 0.2% 0.4%

Real wage -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0,0% -0,1% 0.0% 0.1%

Capital gains 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0,1% 0,1% 0.0% 0.1%

Land gains 81.2% 76.6% 5.0% 5.5% 2,8% 7,2% -0.3% -0.3%

Real exchange rate 3.5% 3.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0,3% 0,9% 0.2% 0.5%


Agriculture EU 27 US South America China


Paddy rice - + - + - + + +++

Wheat - - - - - - + ++++

Other cereals +++ +++ + + - - + ++

Vegetables/fruits +++ +++ + + - - + ++

Oil seeds --- --- + + - - ++ ++++

Sugar (cane&beet) ++++ ++++ ++ ++ + + + ++

Plant fibres ---- ---- + + + + - --

Other crops (unprepared) - - +++ +++ - - + -

Cattle, horses, sheeps ++++ ++++ + + - + + +

Animal products ++++ ++++ + + - - + -

Raw milk - + + + + + - ++

Wool, silk - - + + - - - +

Forestry products --- --- + + - - + +

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses ++++ ++++ + + - + + ++

Meat products ++++ ++++ + + - - ++ -

Vegetables oils and fats -- -- + + - - ++ ++++

Processed rice - + - - - + + ++

Sugar ++++ ++++ +++ +++ + + + +

Food products (animal feed) ++++ ++++ + + + + + +

Beverage, Tobacco products - - - - - - + +

Total (No. of positive results) 9 12 16 17 5 9 17 16



Industry EU 27 US South America China

Extrative


Fishing + + + + - - + +

Coal -- -- + + - - + -

Oil -- -- + + - - + +

Gas -- -- + - - - + ++

Minerals --- --- + + - - + -

Manufacturing

Textiles ---- ---- + ++ + + ---- ----

Apparel - - + + + + - -

Leather products ---- ---- ++++ ++++ + ++ ++ ---

Wood products ---- ---- + + - - + --

Paper products --- --- - - - - + ++

Petroleum products - - + + - - + ++++

Chemical, rubber, plastics ---- ---- - - + - + ++++

Mineral (non-metallic) --- --- + + + + - +

Iron, steel ---- ---- - - + - + ---

Metals (non-ferrous) ---- ---- + - - -- ++ ----

Metal products ---- ---- - - + + - --

Motor vehicles and parts ---- ---- + + + +++ + +++

Transport equipament ---- ---- ++ ++ - -- ++ ----

Electronic equipment ---- ---- - -- - - -- ----

Machinery and equipment ---- ---- --- --- - - - ----

Manufactures -- -- - - + + -- --

Total (No. of positive results) 1 1 14 12 9 7 14 8


Simulation 3– Brazil and Mercosul (5) x US – EU – China – SAm

Services EU 27 US South America China


Electricity -- -- + - - - + +

Gas distribution --- --- + + - - + --

Water + + - - + + - -

Construction - - - - - - - -

Trade - - - - + + - +

Transport - - - - - - + -

Water transport --- --- + + - - + --

Air transport -- -- + - - - + -

Communication - - - - - - - -

Financial services - - - - - - - -

Insurance - - - - - - - -

Business services -- -- + - - - + -

Recreation and other serv. + - - - - - - -

Public administration + + - - - + - -

Dwellings + + - - + + - -

Total (No. of positive

results) 4 3 5 2 3 4 6 2


Simulation 4 – Impacts of TTIP on Brazil

Hypothesis:

TTIP – only tariffs

TTIP with 50% reduction of non-tariff barriers (NTBs)

TTIP with 100% reduction of NTBs

Brazil accession to the TTIP: full liberalization

Brazil accession to the TTIP – 50% liberalization on agriculture



0 – 1 (+) or (-)

1 – 2 (++) or (--)

2 – 3 (+++) or (---)

More than 3 (++++) or (----)


TTIP

TTIP+NTB

(50%)

TTIP+NTB

(100%)

TTIP+NTB

(100%) + Brazil

TTIP+NTB

(100%) + Brazil

Agriculture 4 5 7 13 13

Industry 12 12 12 2 3

Services 8 10 11 5 5

+ 24 25 24 5 5

++ 0 2 4 3 3

+++ 0 0 2 0 0

++++ 0 0 0 12 13

Total 24 27 30 20 21

Macroeconomic Variables TTIP TTIP+NTB

(50%)

TTIP+NTB

(100%)

TTIP+NTB

(100%) +

Brazil

TTIP+NTB

(100%) +

Brazil (50%)

Variation in bilateral exports

(US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) -453 -3,778 -7,858 95,433 77,374

Variation in bilateral exports % -0.6% -5.0% -10.4% 126.3% 102.4%

Variation in bilateral imports (US$

mi, F.O.B., 2012) -320 -3,121 -6,401 43,130 37,209

Variation in bilateral imports % -0.4% -3.9% -8.0% 53.9% 46.5%

Terms of trade -0.1% -0.6% -1.3% 16.0% 10.7%

Real wage 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.4% 0.8%

Capital gains 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 1.1% 1.1%

Land gains -0.4% -2.7% -6.2% 198,4% 87.7%

Real exchange rate -0.1% -1.0% -2.2% 15.2% 10.5%

Summary of gains – GDP by sector

Macroeconomic Outlook



Agriculture TTIP

TTIP +

NTB (50%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%) +

Brazil (100%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%) +

Brazil (50% Ag)

Paddy rice - - - - -

Wheat + ++ +++ ---- ----

Other cereals - - -- ++++ ++++

Vegetables/fruits - - - ++++ ++++

Oil seeds + - -- ++++ ++++

Sugar (cane&beet) + + + ++++ ++++

Plant fibres - + + ---- ----

Other crops (unprepared) - -- --- ++++ ++++

Cattle, horses, sheeps - - - ++++ ++++

Animal products - -- -- ++++ ++++

Raw milk - - + - -

Wool, silk - - + + ++

Forestry products + + ++ ---- ---

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses - - - ++++ ++++

Meat products - --- ---- ++++ ++++

Vegetables oils and fats - - - ++++ ++++

Processed rice - - - - -

Sugar - + + ++++ ++++

Food products (animal feed) - - - ++++ ++++

Beverage, Tobacco products - - - - -

Total (No. of positive results) 4 5 7 13 13



Industry TTIP

TTIP +

NTB (50%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%) +

Brazil (100%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%) +

Brazil (50% Ag)

Fishing - - - + +

Coal + + + ---- ----

Oil + + - -- -

Gas + + + ---- ----

Minerals + + + ---- ----

Manufacturing

Textiles - + + ---- ----

Apparel - - - ++ ++

Leather products - - - ---- ++++

Wood products + ++ +++ ---- ----

Paper products + + ++ ---- ----

Petroleum products - - - -- -

Chemical, rubber, plastics + + + ---- ----

Mineral (non-metallic) - - - --- -

Iron, steel + - - ---- ----

Metals (non-ferrous) - + + ---- ----

Metal products + + + ---- ----

Motor vehicles and parts - - + ---- ----

Transport equipament + --- ---- ---- ----

Electronic equipment + + + ---- ----

Machinery and equipment + + ++ ---- ----

Manufactures - - - -- --


results) 12 12 12 2 3



Services TTIP

TTIP + NTB

(50%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%) +

Brazil (100%)

TTIP +

NTB (100%) +

Brazil (50% Ag)

Electricity - + + ---- ---

Gas distribution + + + ---- ----

Water - - - + +

Construction - - + - -

Trade - - - + +

Transport - + + - -

Water transport + + ++ ---- ----

Air transport + + + ---- ----

Communication + + + - -

Financial services + + + - -

Insurance + + + - -

Business services + + + ---- ---

Recreation and other serv. + + + + +

Public administration - - - ++ +

Dwellings - - - ++ ++


results) 8 10 11 5 5


Trade Balance: Agriculture

TTIP TTIP +

TBT (50%)

TTIP +

TBT (100%)

TTIP +

TBT(100%) + Brasil (100%)

TTIP +

TBT(100%) + Brasil

(50%Ag)

Agriculture

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

Paddy rice -0,36 3,03 0,57 -1,27 7,36 2 -2,97 -1,88 4,48 -32,25 1998,15 66,89 -21,11 1975,79 49,85

Wheat 2,20 -0,27 -0,16 16,55 -1,58 -1,19 35,56 -3,55 -2,55 -393,71 -11,35 27,21 -286,18 -12,07 19,70

Other cereals -8,88 -0,43 -0,28 -60,54 -2,91 -1,78 -115,13 -5,55 -3,63 227,69 14,31 42,37 314,52 17,05 29,78

Vegetables/fruits 0,16 -0,07 -0,13 -10,09 -1,88 -1,2 -23,79 -4,26 -2,57 796,26 109,31 34,72 788,75 104,37 28,34

Oil seeds 7,18 0,1 -0,09 -148,95 -2,18 -1,88 -360,59 -5,28 -4,47 62,62 1,59 70,38 171,06 3,16 70,27

Sugar (cane&beet) 0 -0,17 -0,13 0,01 0,13 -1,15 0,02 0,36 -2,41 -2,59 -70,06 74,03 -1,36 -38,91 26,47

Plant fibres -2,92 -0,64 -0,28 -2,80 -0,90 -1,41 -5,69 -1,84 -2,94 -72,31 -8,81 21,94 -56,66 -6,89 17,27

Other crops (unprepared) -41,14 -0,72 -0,38 -390,47 -6,82 -2,70 -914,74 -15,93 -5,51 5580,24 101,64 121,04 5338,18 96,22 95,89

Cattle, horses, sheeps 0,21 0,02 -0,62 0,13 -0,29 -2,81 0,08 -0,7 -5,92 -296,34 -79,97 474,26 -137,83 -48,83 127,35

Animal products -0,29 -0,21 -0,35 -2,44 -1,46 -2,12 -4,5 -2,84 -4,32 -127,61 -9,35 73,64 -34,92 6,30 44,57

Raw milk 0,01 0,27 -0,15 0,09 2,04 -1,73 0,15 2,13 -3,72 6,44 439,18 65,14 9,23 559,6 47,00

Wool, silk -0,01 -0,16 -0,19 0,16 0,33 -3,54 0,37 1,19 -6,59 39,59 415,57 195,62 63,86 607,52 118,45

Forestry products 0,03 0,03 -0,11 -1,32 -5,68 -0,89 -2,94 -12,47 -1,79 37,6 160,62 24,31 42,94 175,98 18,30

Meat: cattle, sheeps,

horses -36,62 -1,03 -0,23 -106,88 -3,03 -1,39 -272,04 -7,68 -2,48 24007,78 686,25 445,65 9358,86 266,11 135,21

Meat products -84,26 -1,19 -0,40 -382,42 -5,40 -3,48 -740,48 -10,46 -7,02 12671,07 179,5 265,96 8453,70 119,61 129,37

Vegetables oils and fats -4,34 -0,12 -0,16 -56,80 -1,52 -1,57 -163,2 -4,24 -3,43 3403,36 90,31 87,47 4034,42 102,42 64,48

Milk -3,88 -1,53 -0,07 4,69 0,18 -2,01 14,78 2,16 -4,33 -366,07 -50,86 110,69 -212,01 -46,77 42,51

Processed rice -0,19 -0,34 -0,02 0,53 -1,23 -0,70 0,77 -2,98 -1,43 -33,00 38,10 30,22 -28,70 21,92 22,43

Sugar -4,15 -0,08 -0,17 -13,96 -0,28 -1,85 -34,79 -0,7 -3,68 7638,74 152,45 84,27 1947,03 38,87 36,11

Food products (animal

feed) -11,55 -0,39 -0,17 -80,48 -2,88 -1,53 -167,31 -6,01 -3,26 3353,58 112,09 45,68 2704,97 87,61 30,32

Beverage, Tobacco

products -3,04 -0,25 -0,13 -94,25 -6,37 -1,16 -151,15 -10,48 -2,44 29,29 14,74 28,85 52,61 10,61 16,4


Trade Balance: Industry

Industry TTIP TTIP+TBT (50%) TTIP+TBT (100%) TTIP+TBT (100%) + Brasil

TTIP+TBT (100%) + Brasil

(50%)

Extrative ∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance % Exports

%

Imports

Fishing 0,25 0,28 -0,12 1,20 -0,17 -1,09 2,47 -0,57 -2,33 -18,75 13,07 20,67 -10,07 18,38 14,95

Coal 0,20 0,03 -0,02 6,20 -1,97 -0,49 14,70 -4,15 -1,17 59,61 -12,69 -4,73 32,82 -11,10 -2,60

Oil 21,46 0,17 -0,13 135,07 -0,12 -1,70 248,72 -0,87 -3,59 586,59 64,43 38,66 782,94 67,68 38,62

Gas 0,91 -0,28 -0,09 7,98 1,23 -0,81 16,77 2,73 -1,71 30,19 269,90 -3,07 11,16 248,45 -1,13

Minerals -7,49 -0,05 -0,09 -143,93 -0,80 -0,67 -311,64 -1,74 -1,43 -94,58 -2,11 -11,27 -60,40 -1,35 -7,21

Manufacturing

Textiles -6,08 -0,74 -0,18 14,30 -1,74 -1,44 33,47 -3,45 -3,04 -918,78 27,28 47,07 -402,49 47,06 39,54

Apparel -1,38 -0,70 -0,16 8,14 -0,39 -1,75 18,09 -0,53 -3,70 -171,80 94,06 88,18 37,71 129,00 69,93

Leather products -58,08 -1,38 -0,21 -104,01 -2,65 -1,65 -163,84 -4,28 -3,43 -103,05 11,43 101,67 2293,14 63,09 71,29

Wood products 11,89 0,25 -0,17 112,27 2,38 -1,73 235,99 5,01 -3,61 -830,89 -11,62 78,36 -189,45 1,90 67,41

Paper products 15,55 0,26 -0,22 130,71 2,15 -1,87 274,48 4,53 -3,89 -1808,02 -20,90 49,89 -1181,70 -10,56 41,01

Petroleum products -10,08 -0,28 -0,06 -123,51 -3,72 -0,93 -231,83 -7,47 -2,03 1147,37 21,94 1,25 1058,68 23,62 3,13

Chemical, rubber,

plastics 26,69 -0,22 -0,19 321,80 -1,08 -1,68 683,96 -2,25 -3,55 -11571,64 -19,79 34,78 -8456,84 -7,42 28,49

Mineral (non-metallic) -43,39 -1,88 -0,20 -146,31 -6,80 -1,94 -242,77 -11,59 -4,08 -33,82 17,11 50,03 344,87 29,72 41,58

Iron, steel 14,05 0,14 -0,10 -165,24 -2,22 -1,60 -357,78 -4,80 -3,44 -441,36 1,91 30,87 642,51 13,83 29,55

Metals (non-ferrous) -11,58 -0,20 -0,04 -12,26 -0,62 -0,76 -20,81 -1,28 -1,69 -1613,65 -23,49 2,33 -756,94 -9,23 4,24

Metal products 3,26 -0,05 -0,20 58,26 0,51 -2,31 125,68 1,22 -4,86 -2322,72 -25,54 87,27 -1800,87 -11,96 74,66

Motor vehicles and

parts -19,38 -0,21 -0,12 -68,06 -1,20 -1,15 -128,92 -2,45 -2,45 -2863,30 2,58 32,90 -1102,44 12,16 29,77

Transport equipament 5,09 -0,06 -0,12 -275,17 -8,79 -2,58 -610,56 -19,32 -5,61 -960,19 -7,46 8,15 -246,53 7,38 8,97

Electronic equipment 30,83 0,44 -0,20 190,65 1,71 -1,57 382,49 3,07 -3,28 -4508,38 -34,76 39,20 -3397,09 -21,79 31,12

Machinery and

equipment 65,33 0,14 -0,21 151,27 -1,97 -1,85 286,20 -4,34 -3,88 -10055,34 -6,06 41,20 -6358,08 12,00 35,55

Manufactures 0,63 -0,21 -0,21 -2,48 -3,51 -1,94 -7,33 -7,74 -4,04 -641,14 2,41 79,85 -397,22 23,39 63,43


Trade Balance: Services

Services

TTIP TTIP +

TBT (50%)

TTIP +

TBT (100%)

TTIP +

TBT (100%) +

Brasil(100%)

TTIP +

TBT (100%) +

Brasil (50%Ag)

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance % Exports

%

Imports

Electricity 3,15 0,17 -0,14 28,15 2,27 -1,17 60,02 5,04 -2,47 -367,34 -29,55 15,21 -276,61 -19,06 11,66

Gas distribution 0,45 0,13 -0,19 2,88 1,70 -1,15 5,90 3,74 -2,33 -12,17 5,69 5,64 -9,05 11,25 4,64

Water 0,24 0,33 -0,34 1,88 2,58 -2,64 4,05 5,77 -5,46 -20,18 -26,22 29,85 -13,37 -15,56 21,69

Construction 0,18 0,02 -0,14 2,47 1,06 -1,37 5,33 2,34 -2,92 -49,66 -27,51 23,16 -36,90 -21,06 16,78

Trade 6,23 0,07 -0,19 66,67 1,36 -1,76 142,86 3,05 -3,70 -1073,93 -22,23 28,17 -742,92 -14,51 19,91

Transport 4,98 0,09 -0,16 32,09 0,15 -1,48 71,93 0,50 -3,15 -807,01 -16,75 24,79 -564,09 -11,02 17,98

Water transport 6,45 0,08 -0,12 51,25 0,55 -1,01 111,17 1,22 -2,15 -780,17 -10,38 12,38 -541,85 -7,07 8,81

Air transport 5,42 0,14 -0,13 45,92 1,03 -1,13 98,76 2,26 -2,41 -647,52 -16,09 15,37 -477,19 -12,47 11,11

Communication 1,53 0,18 -0,19 15,13 1,89 -1,73 32,86 4,19 -3,65 -161,79 -17,10 22,50 -103,02 -9,34 16,33

Financial services 8,56 0,33 -0,31 15,72 -2,42 -2,37 46,63 -3,67 -4,95 -430,10 -10,75 19,14 -255,79 -2,10 13,94

Insurance 3,48 0,22 -0,17 19,08 0,52 -1,50 43,61 1,53 -3,16 -350,84 -19,27 20,16 -237,06 -11,53 14,76

Business services 37,06 0,19 -0,14 362,97 1,79 -1,37 792,20 3,99 -2,93 -3858,25 -13,35 19,15 -2352,53 -5,06 14,15


serv. 6,44 0,21 -0,25 55,21 2,18 -2,01 117,33 4,80 -4,23 -715,24 -25,53 26,90 -502,02 -18,26 18,78

Public

administration 17,71 0,28 -0,30 89,65 0,09 -2,34 195,13 0,55 -4,87 -1472,12 -21,44 26,09 -1002,77 -14,09 18,09

Dwellings 0 -0,13 -0,13 0 -1,06 -1,06 0 -2,25 -2,25 0 13,51 13,51 0 10,04 10,04

Simulation 5 – Brazil – Alternative Scenarios

Hypothesis:

For EU

Full Liberalization

Agriculture = 50% reduction

Industry + Services = 50% reduction (Brazil)

For TTIP

Full Liberalization

TBT (100%)

Agriculture = 50% reduction

Industry + Services = 50% reduction (Brazil)



0 – 1 (+) or (-)

1 – 2 (++) or (--)

2 – 3 (+++) or (---)

More than 3 (++++) or (----)


Summary of gains – GDP by sector

UE 27 TTIP

Agriculture 9 13

Industry 5 3

Services 3 5

+ 10 5

++ 3 3

+++ 1 0

++++ 3 13

Total 17 21

Macroeconomic

outlook

Macroeconomic Variables EU 27 TTIP

Increase in bilateral exports (US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 6808 73339

Increase in bilateral exports % 14,7% 97,5%

Increase in bilateral imports (US$ mi, F.O.B., 2012) 8623 20602

Increase in bilateral imports % 20,4% 29,4%

Terms of trade 0,4% 10,9%

Real wage 0,0% 0,8%

Capital gains 0,1% 1,1%

Land gains 10,9% 82,8%

Real exchange rate 0,6% 11,1%



Agriculture EU 27 TTIP

Paddy rice - -

Wheat + ----

Other cereals ++ ++++

Vegetables/fruits ++ ++++

Oil seeds - +++

Sugar (cane&beet) +++ ++++

Plant fibres - ----

Other crops (unprepared) + ++++

Cattle, horses, sheeps ++++ ++++

Animal products - ++++

Raw milk - -

Wool, silk - +

Forestry products - ----

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses ++++ ++++

Meat products -- ++++

Vegetables oils and fats - ++++

Processed rice - -

Sugar ++++ ++++

Food products (animal feed) ++ ++++

Beverage, Tobacco products - -

Total (No. of positive results) 9 13



Industry

UE 27 TTIP Extractive

Fishing + +

Coal - ----

Oil - -

Gas - ----

Minerals - ----

Manufacturing

Textiles - ---

Apparel + ++

Leather products + ++++

Wood products + ----

Paper products - ----

Petroleum products - -

Chemical, rubber, plastics - ----

Mineral (non-metallic) - -

Iron, steel -- ----

Metals (non-ferrous) + ----

Metal products -- ----

Motor vehicles and parts - ----

Transport equipament - ----

Electronic equipment - ----

Machinery and equipment ---- ----

Manufactures - -




Services UE 27 TTIP

Electricity - ---

Gas distribution - ----

Water + +

Construction - -

Trade - +

Transport - -

Water transport - ----

Air transport - ----

Communication - -

Financial services - -

Insurance - -

Business services - ---

Recreation and other serv. - +

Public administration + +

Dwellings + ++



Trade balance - Agriculture

EU TTIP

Agriculture ∆

Trade balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

Paddy rice -1,81 9,59 2,83 -24,29 1892,75 53,91

Wheat -29,38 -2,06 2,01 -290,05 -12,95 19,95

Other cereals 14,9 1 3,45 307,17 16,72 29,75

Vegetables/fruits 43,43 6,31 2,43 775,26 103,57 29,38

Oil seeds -27,64 -0,4 0,52 171,72 3,16 69,3

Sugar (cane&beet) -0,22 -6,61 3,16 -1,39 -39,68 27,08

Plant fibres -3,49 -0,66 0,12 -71,91 -8,2 24,14

Other crops (unprepared) 57,85 1,22 4,53 5224,54 94,49 100,22

Cattle, horses, sheeps -39,37 -14,48 32,14 -137,69 -48,78 127,19

Animal products -5,3 -0,16 3,69 -37,45 6,62 47,42

Raw milk -0,07 -2,08 1,04 8,94 546,45 48,52

Wool, silk -1,49 -4,48 27,7 59,17 575,41 148,9

Forestry products -0,9 -0,85 3,24 40,49 170,67 23,27

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses 3666,36 103,05 21,42 9232,76 262,68 137,34

Meat products -195,98 -2,69 24,2 8200,49 116,17 169,72

Vegetables oils and fats -79,56 -0,19 14,16 3849,04 99,84 79,5

Processed rice 0 3,33 1,14 -33,49 19,17 23,98

Sugar 553,87 11,05 5,37 1861,25 37,16 42,98

Food products (animal feed) 242,49 9,05 5,48 2541,61 85,51 35,9

Beverage, Tobacco products -12,13 3,8 10,18 -6,44 9,96 23,13


Trade balance - Industry

Industry EU TTIP

Extractive ∆

Trade balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade balance % Exports

%

Imports

Fishing 0,19 3,16 0,91 -11,19 17,79 15,72

Coal 5,52 -0,02 -0,44 33,5 -11,7 -2,66

Oil -18,86 -0,28 0,03 701,78 66,71 38,9

Gas 5,43 3,59 -0,55 6,31 228,59 -0,64

Minerals 3,71 -0,08 -0,66 -107,1 -1,52 -6,82

Manufacturing

Textiles -56,68 3,19 3,71 -324,41 40,87 33,46

Apparel 7,05 15,68 8,04 100,22 118,04 51,71

Leather products 155,56 4,63 7,44 2029,51 55,8 62,86

Wood products 84,09 2,95 11,39 -262,82 -1,68 46,53

Paper products -166,67 -1,31 6,27 -1161,81 -13,5 31,87

Petroleum products 31,4 -0,18 -0,42 1016,76 23,21 3,31

Chemical, rubber, plastics -854,31 -0,08 3,17 -7628,29 -10,84 23,89

Mineral (non-metallic) -68,52 -0,58 6,12 345,52 26,51 32,85

Iron, steel -176,76 -0,94 4,74 475,12 10,41 22,67

Metals (non-ferrous) 188,98 3,03 0,22 -994,44 -12,9 4,2

Metal products -322,07 -1,81 13,65 -1338,91 -15,59 49,54

Motor vehicles and parts -137,59 2,59 5,37 -893,13 7,5 20,52

Transport equipament -66,45 -0,69 0,43 -464,47 1,24 7,53

Electronic equipment -213,15 -1,25 1,99 -3276,54 -26,24 28,14

Machinery and equipment -1492,24 -0,75 6,2 -5273,64 4,85 26,42

Manufactures -62,06 -1,9 6,37 -294,53 17,11 46,88


Trade balance - Services

EU TTIP

Services ∆

Trade balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆

Trade balance

%

Exports

%

Imports

Electricity -16,6 -2,13 0,64 -295,5 -21,07 12,41

Gas distribution -0,75 -0,32 0,31 -10,15 9,21 4,99

Water -1,06 -1,88 1,05 -14,85 -17,84 23,51

Construction -1,6 -1,02 0,65 -40,01 -22,65 18,31

Trade -42,43 -1,31 0,9 -806,26 -16,01 21,48

Transport -31,18 -0,89 0,73 -615,51 -12,3 19,36

Water transport -33,24 -0,51 0,42 -592,7 -7,82 9,51

Air transport -22,14 -0,64 0,5 -511,56 -13,24 11,96

Communication -8,19 -1,25 0,64 -115,7 -10,96 17,73

Financial services -23,65 -1,34 0,61 -296,46 -3,83 15,32

Insurance -17,21 -1,32 0,7 -260,39 -13,08 15,89

Business services -210,78 -1,28 0,6 -2664,74 -6,77 15,19

Recreation and other serv. -26,19 -1,27 0,88 -543,05 -19,73 20,32

Public administration -61,91 -1,25 0,88 -1097,7 -15,65 19,66

Dwellings 0 0,48 0,48 0 10,79 10,79

Simulation 6 - Brazil x Canada – Japan – South Korea –

Mexico – India – South Africa

Hypothesis:

Full Liberalization



0 – 1 (+) or (-)

1 – 2 (++) or (--)

2 – 3 (+++) or (---)

More than 3 (++++) or (----)



Canada Japan South

Korea Mexico India South Africa

Agriculture 5 10 3 5 5 6

Industry 4 3 1 10 1 4

Services 1 0 4 4 4 2

+ 8 9 6 18 7 12

++ 0 1 1 1 1 0

+++ 0 0 0 0 0 0

++++ 2 3 1 0 2 0

Total 10 13 8 19 10 12

Summary of gains: GDP by sector

Macroeconomic outlook Macroeconomic Variables Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Increase in bilateral exports (US$

mi, F.O.B., 2012) 883 4248 7620 1553 12475 1053

Increase in bilateral exports % 28,7% 53,4% 169,3% 38,8% 223,7% 59,7%

Increase in bilateral imports (US$

mi, F.O.B., 2012) 1281 7904 10034 1998 1316 600

Increase in bilateral imports % 41,7% 102,2% 110,3% 32,9% 26,1% 70,8%

Terms of trade 0,1% 0,1% 0,7% 0,1% 0,2% 0,1%

Real wage 0,0% 0,0% -0,1% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%

Capital gains 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%

Land gains 1,1% 6,1% 18,0% -0,2% 2,8% 0,2%

Real exchange rate 0,1% 0,3% 0,5% 0,2% 0,3% 0,1%



Agriculture Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Paddy rice - ++++ - - - -

Wheat - + - - ++++ -

Other cereals + + ++++ - - -

Vegetables/fruits - + - - - -

Oil seeds - - ++ - ++ -

Sugar (cane&beet) - - - - + -

Plant fibres - ++++ - + - -

Other crops (unprepared) - - - + - -

Cattle, horses, sheeps - - - - - -

Animal products + + - - - +

Raw milk ++++ - - - - +

Wool, silk - + - - - -

Forestry products - - - + - -

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses - - - - - -

Meat products - ++ -- - - +

Vegetables oils and fats - - -- - ++++ +

Milk & Dairy ++++ - - - - +

Processed rice - -- - - - -

Sugar - - - - + -

Food products (animal feed) + + - + - +

Beverage, Tobacco products - + + + - -

Total 5 10 3 5 5 6

GDP by sector (%): Agriculture

Simulation 6 - Brazil x Canada – Japan – South Korea

– Mexico – India – South Africa

Industry Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Extrative

Fishing + + - - - -

Coal - - - - - -

Oil - - - - - -

Gas - - - - - -

Minerals - - - - - -

Manufacturing

Textiles + ++++ - + -- -

Apparel + - + + - +

Leather products + + - ++ - +

Wood products - - - + - -

Paper products - - - - - -

Petroleum products - - - + - -

Chemical, rubber, plastics - - - - - -

Mineral (non-metallic) - - - - - +

Iron, steel - - - + + -

Metals (non-ferrous) - - -- - - -

Metal products - - - + - -

Motor vehicles and parts - - - - - +

Transport equipament - - - + - -

Electronic equipment - - -- - - -

Machinery and equipment - -- - + - -

Manufactures - - - + - -

Total 4 3 1 10 1 4

GDP by sector (%): Industry



Services Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Electricity - - - - - -

Gas distribution - - - + - -

Water - - - + - -

Construction - - - - - -

Trade + - - + + +

Transport - - - - + -

Water transport - - - - - -

Air transport - - - - - -

Communication - - - - - -

Financial services - - - - - -

Insurance - - + - - -

Business services - - - - - -

Recreation and other serv. - - + - - -

Public administration - - + - + -

Dwellings - - + + + +

Total 1 0 4 4 4 2

GDP by sector (%): Services



Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Agriculture

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Impor

ts

Paddy rice -0,18 -0,60 0,27 842,15 149152,5

9 77,19 -0,7 -1,94 1,04 -0,36 -1,12 0,53 -0,70 -1,64 1,05 -0,25 -0,78 0,37

Wheat -7,09 1,50 0,53 -13,34 -1,55 0,90 9,33 0,20 -0,65 -2,52 -0,56 0,16 344,03 2628,5

1 30,94 -2,20 -0,41 0,14

Other cereals -4,65 -0,14 0,71 -6,19 -0,21 0,70 3005,04 139,19 33,8 -2,93 -0,12 0,11 -2,27 -0,12 -0,13 -2,78 -0,11 0,19

Vegetables/fruits -2,13 -0,09 0,21 -0,17 0,24 0,39 -1,17 -0,17 -0,07 -1,75 -0,10 0,15 -2,61 -0,06 0,34 0,23 0,12 0,15

Oil seeds -4,43 -0,06 0,11 -14,13 -0,20 0,19 480,00 6,98 1,37 -6,99 -0,10 0 -156,75 -2,18 9,53 -10,76 -0,15 0,36

Sugar (cane&beet) 0 -0,14 0,08 -0,02 -0,47 0,21 -0,03 -0,79 0,12 -0,01 -0,32 0,17 -0,04 -1,19 1,02 -0,01 -0,18 0,11

Plant fibres -1,15 -0,19 0,15 -51,95 -7,14 12,48 1,73 0,14 -0,83 -4,87 -0,66 1,22 4,93 0,66 -1,23 -1,18 -0,20 0,11

Other crops

(unprepared) -14,73 -0,24 0,19 -39,40 -0,65 0,55 -8,86 -0,12 0,64 26,63 0,49 0,66 -11,47 -0,07 2,40 -11,19 -0,17 0,33

Cattle, horses, sheeps -0,26 -0,11 0,08 -0,82 -0,36 0,24 -4,83 -2,09 1,47 -0,65 -0,27 0,26 -0,86 -0,38 0,20 -0,44 -0,19 0,16

Animal products -0,51 -0,11 0,10 -3,97 -0,75 1,03 -6,06 -1,30 1,14 -0,23 -0,05 0,06 -0,22 -0,02 0,12 -1,32 -0,24 0,37

Raw milk -0,44 -10,57 8,48 -0,05 -1,44 0,81 -0,29 -8,19 4,78 -0,04 -0,99 0,58 -0,06 -1,75 1,00 -0,10 -2,46 1,76

Wool, silk -0,1 -0,72 0,43 -0,45 -3,4 1,89 -2,42 -17,58 12,67 -0,19 -1,45 0,88 -0,35 -2,70 1,33 -0,14 -1,03 0,61

Forestry products -0,02 -0,10 -0,03 -0,06 -0,22 0,03 -0,12 -0,41 0,06 -0,15 -0,29 0,36 0,29 1,64 0,69 -0,11 -0,29 0,15

Meat: cattle, sheeps,

horses -12,37 -0,33 0,30 -33,62 -0,90 0,87 -120,9 -3,28 2,32 -28,36 -0,76 0,89 -37,59 -1,03 0,57 -11,26 -0,30 0,47

Meat products -16,47 -0,23 0,33 287,80 4,07 2,05 -108,04 -1,52 2,73 -51,32 -0,72 0,54 -59,23 -0,83 0,75 71,10 1,01 1,49

Vegetables oils and fats -12,73 -0,25 0,43 -29,09 -0,63 0,44 -236,49 -5,40 1,46 -22,00 -0,48 0,32 1093,03 26,19 4,35 26,50 0,67 0,37

Milk & Dairy 635,51 245,72 4,26 -0,82 0,30 0,76 2,33 3,09 2,75 -2,33 -0,42 0,58 -5,30 -1,29 0,92 109,51 42,59 1,05

Processed rice -0,53 -0,28 0,18 -42,82 -23,08 14,33 -1,81 -0,99 0,60 -1,01 -0,56 0,33 -1,02 -0,75 0,28 -0,68 -0,38 0,22

Sugar -6,84 -0,14 1,62 -2,99 -0,06 0,55 -25,57 -0,51 1,04 -14,49 -0,29 0,43 68,46 1,37 2,63 -9,29 -0,19 0,21


feed) 16,66 0,58 0,29 200,74 5,76 0,53 -140,80 -2,31 3,66 9,71 0,43 0,38 -84,03 -1,75 1,31 7,70 0,32 0,24

Beverage, Tobacco

products -0,36 0,21 0,51 37,34 2,42 0,22 89,65 5,74 0,38 19,32 1,29 0,20 -4,96 -0,20 0,24 -3,1 -0,07 0,27

Trade balance: Agriculture




Extrative

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

Fishing -0,17 -0,1 0,11 -0,42 -0,13 0,32 -1,22 -0,2 0,99 -0,30 -0,16 0,20 -0,33 -0,16 0,23 -0,21 -0,11 0,14

Coal 0,81 0 -0,06 2,74 0 -0,22 3,42 0 -0,27 -0,75 -0,19 0,06 -0,03 -0,12 0 0,70 -0,02 -0,06

Oil -3,76 -0,05 0,01 -8,74 -0,12 0,02 -13,11 0,01 0,16 -36,71 -0,32 0,21 -20,49 -0,21 0,09 -7,48 -0,09 0,03

Gas 0,74 0,47 -0,08 1,33 0,86 -0,14 3,79 2,52 -0,39 -0,57 -0,78 0,06 0,42 0,02 -0,04 0,67 0,34 -0,07

Minerals 0,32 -0,02 -0,11 8,20 -0,01 -0,36 -0,12 -0,06 -0,39 -7,60 -0,04 -0,02 24,68 0,10 -0,13 -2,41 -0,02 -0,07

Manufacturing

Textiles 4,17 0,93 0,35 1216,89 87,36 4,22 -151,26 -0,45 5,09 80,88 6,86 0,85 -175,07 0,60 6,49 -8,37 0,80 0,73

Apparel 0,38 0,90 0,47 -3,57 0,62 1,04 -7,25 -0,46 1,08 29,92 10,65 0,76 -27,31 0,23 5,24 4,40 3,05 1,00

Leather products 37,14 0,92 0,4 98,40 2,41 0,91 -58,72 -1,18 1,40 202,00 4,85 1,08 -34,72 -0,69 0,86 55,62 1,41 0,85

Wood products -7,7 -0,12 0,62 -50,18 -0,69 4,91 -40,92 -0,85 0,88 20,52 0,56 1,05 -41,63 -0,87 0,79 0,49 0,04 0,34

Paper products -67,49 -0,14 3,61 -44,15 -0,64 0,87 -55,14 -1 0,55 -28,97 -0,48 0,42 -39,66 -0,71 0,42 -20,26 -0,32 0,32

Petroleum products 2,30 -0,03 -0,04 9,25 -0,07 -0,14 0,81 -0,16 -0,10 33,03 0,66 0,05 -9,71 -0,04 0,07 4,14 0,02 -0,03

Chemical, rubber,

plastics -65,68 -0,15 0,18 -310,76 -0,54 0,93 -308,54 -0,79 0,81 -133,62 0,91 0,90 -152,35 0,55 0,81 -103,37 -0,16 0,32

Mineral (non-metallic) -3,39 0,01 0,42 -22,05 -0,55 1,00 -24,44 -0,68 0,91 2,97 0,68 1,51 -15,98 -0,24 1,14 6,30 0,43 0,46

Iron, steel -24,03 -0,25 0,08 -66,66 -0,48 1,20 -91,37 -0,78 1,10 37,48 0,56 0,63 132,97 1,76 1,15 -71,83 -0,26 2,48

Metals (non-ferrous) -25,77 -0,36 0,06 -27,28 -0,62 -0,35 -57,61 -1,21 -0,57 -23,29 -0,18 0,32 -66,25 -0,99 0,05 -38,49 -0,47 0,21

Metal products -24,12 -0,17 0,99 -147,8 -0,86 6,23 -76,22 -1,34 2,42 34,90 3,09 1,10 -44,82 -0,51 1,67 -7,40 0,16 0,49

Motor vehicles and parts -13,7 0,05 0,21 -420,58 0,32 4,73 -460,52 0,22 4,99 -2,15 0,17 0,29 -83,50 -0,32 0,35 342,28 2,82 0,85

Transport equipament -14,22 -0,06 0,16 -13,84 0,83 0,81 -38,49 -0,63 0,08 27,91 0,97 0,32 -43,52 -0,82 0,01 -20,62 -0,39 0,01

Electronic equipment -49,29 -0,33 0,45 -100,99 -0,71 0,90 -487,47 -0,31 5,48 -54,04 0,14 0,67 -83,20 -1,00 0,60 -39,58 -0,49 0,28

Machinery and

equipment -164,31 -0,31 0,55 -788,59 -0,18 3,41 -424,13 -0,67 1,49 180,76 2,25 0,54 -64,63 0,72 0,72 -56,64 0,02 0,27

Manufactures -5,94 -0,14 0,64 -20,69 -0,86 1,98 -23,06 -1,37 1,95 14,35 4,64 1,20 -21,75 -0,26 2,49 -6,36 -0,24 0,62

Trade balance: Industry




Services

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

Electricity -2,31 -0,35 0,09 -6,17 -0,90 0,23 -7,22 -1,30 0,25 -5,86 -0,73 0,23 -7,03 -0,95 0,27 -3,23 -0,48 0,12

Gas distribution -0,09 -0,09 0,03 0,10 -0,22 -0,06 0,53 -0,26 -0,25 -0,24 -0,32 0,08 -0,27 -0,35 0,10 -0,11 -0,15 0,04

Water -0,18 -0,34 0,16 -0,43 -0,80 0,40 -0,57 -1,13 0,44 -0,41 -0,72 0,42 -0,52 -0,93 0,50 -0,25 -0,47 0,23

Construction -0,32 -0,21 0,13 -0,64 -0,41 0,26 -1,01 -0,64 0,42 -0,71 -0,46 0,29 -0,90 -0,58 0,36 -0,46 -0,29 0,19

Trade -7,37 -0,23 0,16 -17,09 -0,53 0,36 -25,18 -0,79 0,53 -16,39 -0,50 0,35 -20,58 -0,63 0,44 -10,42 -0,32 0,22

Transport -5,71 -0,17 0,13 -11,77 -0,35 0,26 -18,64 -0,51 0,45 -12,98 -0,38 0,30 -15,81 -0,46 0,36 -8,13 -0,24 0,19

Water transport -5,93 -0,10 0,07 -12,40 -0,20 0,14 -20,47 -0,30 0,28 -13,48 -0,21 0,16 -15,11 -0,23 0,20 -8,68 -0,14 0,10

Air transport -3,76 -0,12 0,08 -7,94 -0,25 0,17 -13,86 -0,36 0,32 -8,69 -0,25 0,19 -10,79 -0,31 0,24 -5,56 -0,16 0,12

Communication -1,47 -0,22 0,12 -3,29 -0,53 0,23 -4,86 -0,75 0,38 -3,37 -0,48 0,30 -4,24 -0,61 0,38 -2,18 -0,31 0,19

Financial services -4,19 -0,23 0,11 -10,57 -0,57 0,29 -12,50 -0,82 0,26 -10,69 -0,50 0,33 -12,79 -0,64 0,38 -6,62 -0,33 0,2

Insurance -3,08 -0,23 0,13 -6,62 -0,56 0,23 -8,91 -0,80 0,27 -6,61 -0,50 0,28 -8,31 -0,63 0,34 -4,49 -0,32 0,2

Business services -37,05 -0,23 0,11 -82,98 -0,54 0,21 -116,78 -0,77 0,29 -83,59 -0,50 0,25 -105,16 -0,62 0,31 -55,09 -0,32 0,17


serv. -4,54 -0,23 0,15 -10,41 -0,54 0,34 -16,28 -0,76 0,56 -10,18 -0,50 0,34 -12,41 -0,60 0,42 -6,54 -0,32 0,22

Public administration -10,80 -0,22 0,15 -24,14 -0,51 0,33 -36,55 -0,70 0,54 -24,55 -0,50 0,35 -29,94 -0,61 0,43 -15,71 -0,32 0,22

Dwellings 0 0,08 0,08 0 0,25 0,25 0 0,31 0,31 0 0,22 0,22 0 0,22 0,22 0 0,12 0,12

Trade balance: Services



Hypothesis:

Services: Full Liberalization

South Africa: Full liberalization

Mexico - Full liberalization

Canada - Full liberalization

India - Agriculture (50% - India) + Industry (50% - Brazil)

Japan - Agriculture (50% - Japan) + Industry (50% - Brazil)

South Korea - Agriculture (50% - South Korea) + Industry (50% - Brazil)



0 – 1 (+) or (-)

1 – 2 (++) or (--)

2 – 3 (+++) or (---)

More than 3 (++++) or (----)

Simulation 7 - Brazil x Canada – Japan – South

Korea – Mexico – India – South Africa


Agriculture 5 9 9 5 5 6

Industry 4 3 4 10 3 4

Services 1 3 2 4 5 2

+ 8 13 14 18 11 12

++ 0 0 0 1 1 0

+++ 0 0 0 0 0 0

++++ 2 2 1 0 1 0

Total 10 15 15 19 13 12

Summary of gains: GDP by sector


Macroeconomic Variables Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Nominal GDP 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1%

Increase in bilateral exports (US$

mi, F.O.B., 2012) 883 2482 1525 1553 4874 1053

Increase in bilateral exports % 28,7% 31,2% 33,9% 38,8% 87,4% 59,7%

Increase in bilateral imports (US$

mi, F.O.B., 2012) 1281 3109 3702 1998 519 600

Increase in bilateral imports % 41,7% 40,2% 40,7% 32,9% 10,3% 70,8%

Terms of trade 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1%

Real wage 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%

Capital gains 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%

Land gains 1,1% 0,6% 2,0% -0,2% 0,1% 0,2%

Real exchange rate 0,1% 0,2% 0,1% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1%



Agriculture Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Paddy rice - + - - - -

Wheat - - - - ++++ -

Other cereals + + ++++ - - -

Vegetables/fruits - + - - - -

Oil seeds - - + - + -

Sugar (cane&beet) - - - - + -

Plant fibres - ++++ - + - -

Other crops (unprepared) - - + + - -

Cattle, horses, sheeps - - - - - -

Animal products + + + - - +

Raw milk ++++ - - - - +

Wool, silk - + - - - -

Forestry products - - - + - -

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses - - - - - -

Meat products - + + - - +

Vegetables oils and fats - - - - ++ +

Milk & Dairy ++++ - + - - +

Processed rice - - - - - -

Sugar - - + - + -

Food products (animal feed) + + + + - +

Beverage, Tobacco products - + + + - -

Total 5 9 9 5 5 6

GDP by sector (%): Agriculture




Extrative

Fishing + + - - - -

Coal - - - - - -

Oil - - - - - -

Gas - - - - - -

Minerals - - - - + -

Manufacturing

Textiles + ++++ - + - -

Apparel + - + + - +

Leather products + + + ++ - +

Wood products - - + + - -

Paper products - - - - - -

Petroleum products - - - + - -

Chemical, rubber, plastics - - - - - -

Mineral (non-metallic) - - - - - +

Iron, steel - - - + + -

Metals (non-ferrous) - - - - - -

Metal products - - - + - -

Motor vehicles and parts - - - - - +

Transport equipament - - + + - -

Electronic equipment - - - - - -

Machinery and equipment - - - + + -

Manufactures - - - + - -

Total 4 3 4 10 3 4

GDP by sector (%): Industry



Services Canada Japan South Korea Mexico India South Africa

Electricity - - - - - -

Gas distribution - + - + + -

Water - + - + + -

Construction - - - - - -

Trade + - - + + +

Transport - - - - + -

Water transport - - - - - -

Air transport - - - - - -

Communication - - - - - -

Financial services - - - - - -

Insurance - - - - - -

Business services - - - - - -

Recreation and other serv. - - + - - -

Public administration - - + - - -

Dwellings - + - + + +

Total 1 3 2 4 5 2

GDP by sector (%): Services



Agriculture


∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million

)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million

)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million

)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

Paddy rice -0,18 -0,60 0,27 4,34 813,04 0,80 -0,09 -0,21 0,14 -0,36 -1,12 0,53 -0,26 -0,71 0,38 -0,25 -0,78 0,37

Wheat -7,09 1,50 0,53 -5,65 -0,80 0,38 -0,59 -0,11 0,04 -2,52 -0,56 0,16 43,04 315,11 3,58 -2,20 -0,41 0,14

Other cereals -4,65 -0,14 0,71 -3,56 -0,13 0,31 318,14 14,68 3,03 -2,93 -0,12 0,11 -1,47 -

0,07 0,02 -2,78 -0,11 0,19

Vegetables/fruits -2,13 -0,09 0,21 -1,80 -0,07 0,20 -0,49 -0,05 0,01 -1,75 -0,10 0,15 -1,46 -0,08 0,12 0,23 0,12 0,15

Oil seeds -4,43 -0,06 0,11 -9,73 -0,14 0,05 209,59 3,05 0,83 -6,99 -0,10 0 -37,61 -0,52 2,32 -10,76 -0,15 0,36

Sugar (cane&beet) 0 -0,14 0,08 -0,01 -0,28 0,19 0 -0,12 0,02 -0,01 -0,32 0,17 -0,01 -0,38 0,28 -0,01 -0,18 0,11

Plant fibres -1,15 -0,19 0,15 -51,92 -7,12 12,55 1,15 0,15 -0,31 -4,87 -0,66 1,22 1,44 0,19 -0,4 -1,18 -0,20 0,11

Other crops (unprepared) -14,73 -0,24 0,19 -27,28 -0,45 0,38 7,48 0,14 0,17 26,63 0,49 0,66 -14,87 -0,15 2,12 -11,19 -0,17 0,33

Cattle, horses, sheeps -0,26 -0,11 0,08 -0,55 -0,24 0,19 -0,53 -0,23 0,17 -0,65 -0,27 0,26 -0,32 -0,14 0,07 -0,44 -0,19 0,16

Animal products -0,51 -0,11 0,10 -1,77 -0,33 0,46 -0,73 -0,14 0,19 -0,23 -0,05 0,06 0 0,01 0,04 -1,32 -0,24 0,37

Raw milk -0,44 -10,57 8,48 -0,03 -0,93 0,53 -0,03 -0,92 0,50 -0,04 -0,99 0,58 -0,02 -0,66 0,38 -0,1 -2,46 1,76

Wool, silk -0,10 -0,72 0,43 -0,33 -2,51 1,31 -0,25 -1,87 1,14 -0,19 -1,45 0,88 -0,14 -1,09 0,54 -0,14 -1,03 0,61

Forestry products -0,02 -0,10 -0,03 -0,08 -0,23 0,11 -0,05 -0,10 0,10 -0,15 -0,29 0,36 0,05 0,71 0,66 -0,11 -0,29 0,15

Meat: cattle, sheeps, horses -12,37 -0,33 0,30 -25,08 -0,67 0,70 -13,75 -0,37 0,38 -28,36 -0,76 0,89 -16,15 -0,44 0,29 -11,26 -0,30 0,47

Meat products -16,47 -0,23 0,33 105,46 1,49 1,32 16,84 0,24 0,37 -51,32 -0,72 0,54 -32,26 -0,45 0,32 71,10 1,01 1,49

Vegetables oils and fats -12,73 -0,25 0,43 -22,21 -0,49 0,30 -76,83 -1,74 0,59 -22,00 -0,48 0,32 228,52 5,52 1,32 26,50 0,67 0,37

Milk & Dairy 635,51 245,72 4,26 -2,40 -0,47 0,56 2,36 1,22 0,40 -2,33 -0,42 0,58 -2,56 -0,57 0,51 109,51 42,59 1,05

Processed rice -0,53 -0,28 0,18 -1,13 -0,64 0,37 -0,24 -0,12 0,08 -1,01 -0,56 0,33 -0,71 -0,35 0,25 -0,68 -0,38 0,22

Sugar -6,84 -0,14 1,62 -11,02 -0,22 0,36 -3,38 -0,07 0,24 -14,49 -0,29 0,43 9,23 0,19 2,15 -9,29 -0,19 0,21


feed) 16,66 0,58 0,29 69,42 2,08 0,39 8,54 0,42 0,43 9,71 0,43 0,38 -17,72 -0,34 0,35 7,70 0,32 0,24

Beverage, Tobacco

products -0,36 0,21 0,51 15,65 1,06 0,19 24,71 1,56 0,07 19,32 1,29 0,20 -2,34 -0,09 0,12 -3,10 -0,07 0,27

Trade balance: Agriculture




Extrative

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balanc

e

(US$

million

)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balanc

e

(US$

million

)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

Fishing -0,17 -0,10 0,11 -0,27 -0,03 0,22 0,03 0,46 0,13 -0,30 -0,16 0,20 -0,17 -0,07 0,12 -0,21 -0,11 0,14

Coal 0,81 0 -0,06 1,79 -0,01 -0,14 0,57 0,02 -0,04 -0,75 -0,19 0,06 -1,17 -0,07 0,09 0,70 -0,02 -0,06

Oil -3,76 -0,05 0,01 -3,61 -0,08 -0,01 4,45 0,21 0,09 -36,71 -0,32 0,21 -12,82 -0,13 0,06 -7,48 -0,09 0,03

Gas 0,74 0,47 -0,08 0,36 0,05 -0,04 0,47 0,32 -0,05 -0,57 -0,78 0,06 -0,72 -0,77 0,07 0,67 0,34 -0,07

Minerals 0,32 -0,02 -0,11 3,57 -0,02 -0,23 -0,26 -0,01 -0,04 -7,60 -0,04 -0,02 23,74 0,12 0,03 -2,41 -0,02 -0,07

Manufacturing

Textiles 4,17 0,93 0,35 1229,88 87,58 3,88 -41,41 0,28 1,61 80,88 6,86 0,85 -55,69 0,61 2,29 -8,37 0,80 0,73

Apparel 0,38 0,90 0,47 -2,61 0,71 0,91 0,16 0,26 0,13 29,92 10,65 0,76 -8,75 0,08 1,68 4,40 3,05 1,00

Leather products 37,14 0,92 0,40 104,57 2,54 0,79 16,58 0,42 0,27 202,00 4,85 1,08 -6,23 -0,09 0,41 55,62 1,41 0,85

Wood products -7,70 -0,12 0,62 -34,21 -0,61 1,81 6,83 0,17 0,19 20,52 0,56 1,05 -19,06 -0,4 0,36 0,49 0,04 0,34

Paper products -67,49 -0,14 3,61 -33,46 -0,55 0,49 -6,46 -0,11 0,08 -28,97 -0,48 0,42 -18,10 -0,32 0,21 -20,26 -0,32 0,32

Petroleum products 2,3 -0,03 -0,04 7,29 -0,06 -0,11 -2,97 -0,05 0 33,03 0,66 0,05 -9,33 0,01 0,10 4,14 0,02 -0,03

Chemical, rubber, plastics -65,68 -0,15 0,18 -203,83 -0,46 0,56 -42,32 0,10 0,20 -133,62 0,91 0,90 2,81 0,93 0,40 -103,37 -0,16 0,32

Mineral (non-metallic) -3,39 0,01 0,42 -16,11 -0,46 0,56 -0,72 0,06 0,24 2,97 0,68 1,51 -2,51 0,08 0,51 6,30 0,43 0,46

Iron, steel -24,03 -0,25 0,08 -48,94 -0,43 0,54 -9,63 -0,01 0,44 37,48 0,56 0,63 174,63 2,12 0,68 -71,83 -0,26 2,48

Metals (non-ferrous) -25,77 -0,36 0,06 -24,62 -0,48 -0,17 10,04 0,05 -0,19 -23,29 -0,18 0,32 -30,98 -0,41 0,11 -38,49 -0,47 0,21

Metal products -24,12 -0,17 0,99 -62,41 -0,73 2,31 -16,51 -0,13 0,66 34,9 3,09 1,10 -14,26 0,02 0,69 -7,40 0,16 0,49

Motor vehicles and parts -13,70 0,05 0,21 -175,25 -0,07 1,67 -68,99 0,26 1,10 -2,15 0,17 0,29 -29,19 -0,07 0,19 342,28 2,82 0,85

Transport equipament -14,22 -0,06 0,16 -19,65 -0,01 0,27 1,61 0,08 0,04 27,91 0,97 0,32 -19,15 -0,36 0,01 -20,62 -0,39 0,01

Electronic equipment -49,29 -0,33 0,45 -67,97 -0,70 0,53 -171,91 0,37 2,11 -54,04 0,14 0,67 -38,95 -0,44 0,29 -39,58 -0,49 0,28

Machinery and equipment -164,31 -0,31 0,55 -374,01 -0,49 1,37 -75,23 0,19 0,45 180,76 2,25 0,54 96,16 1,26 0,33 -56,64 0,02 0,27

Manufactures -5,94 -0,14 0,64 -11,64 -0,8 0,91 -4,36 -0,10 0,47 14,35 4,64 1,20 -6,69 0,28 1,00 -6,36 -0,24 0,62

Trade balance: Industry



Services


∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

∆ Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Export

s

%

Import

s

∆

Trade

balance

(US$

million)

%

Exports

%

Imports

Electricity -2,31 -0,35 0,09 -5,21 -0,67 0,20 -0,96 -0,17 0,03 -5,86 -0,73 0,23 -3,84 -0,46 0,15 -3,23 -0,48 0,12

Gas distribution -0,09 -0,09 0,03 0,02 -0,23 -0,02 0,05 -0,02 -0,02 -0,24 -0,32 0,08 -0,16 -0,23 0,05 -0,11 -0,15 0,04

Water -0,18 -0,34 0,16 -0,36 -0,64 0,35 -0,06 -0,12 0,05 -0,41 -0,72 0,42 -0,26 -0,44 0,27 -0,25 -0,47 0,23

Construction -0,32 -0,21 0,13 -0,58 -0,37 0,24 -0,08 -0,05 0,04 -0,71 -0,46 0,29 -0,44 -0,28 0,18 -0,46 -0,29 0,19

Trade -7,37 -0,23 0,16 -14,79 -0,43 0,33 -2,70 -0,09 0,06 -16,39 -0,50 0,35 -9,79 -0,30 0,21 -10,42 -0,32 0,22

Transport -5,71 -0,17 0,13 -10,64 -0,31 0,24 -1,96 -0,05 0,05 -12,98 -0,38 0,30 -7,69 -0,22 0,18 -8,13 -0,24 0,19

Water transport -5,93 -0,10 0,07 -11,47 -0,18 0,14 -2,47 -0,04 0,03 -13,48 -0,21 0,16 -7,62 -0,12 0,10 -8,68 -0,14 0,1

Air transport -3,76 -0,12 0,08 -7,25 -0,22 0,16 -1,55 -0,04 0,04 -8,69 -0,25 0,19 -5,22 -0,15 0,12 -5,56 -0,16 0,12

Communication -1,47 -0,22 0,12 -2,76 -0,42 0,21 -0,46 -0,08 0,03 -3,37 -0,48 0,30 -2,10 -0,30 0,20 -2,18 -0,31 0,19

Financial services -4,19 -0,23 0,11 -9,11 -0,44 0,28 -1,12 -0,10 0,01 -10,69 -0,50 0,33 -6,49 -0,31 0,20 -6,62 -0,33 0,20

Insurance -3,08 -0,23 0,13 -5,57 -0,44 0,22 -0,91 -0,09 0,02 -6,61 -0,5 0,28 -4,05 -0,30 0,17 -4,49 -0,32 0,20

Business services -37,05 -0,23 0,11 -69,49 -0,43 0,19 -11,65 -0,08 0,02 -83,59 -0,50 0,25 -50,81 -0,30 0,15 -55,09 -0,32 0,17


serv. -4,54 -0,23 0,15 -8,92 -0,45 0,30 -1,71 -0,08 0,06 -10,18 -0,50 0,34 -5,96 -0,29 0,20 -6,54 -0,32 0,22

Public administration -10,80 -0,22 0,15 -21,00 -0,43 0,29 -3,87 -0,07 0,06 -24,55 -0,50 0,35 -14,49 -0,29 0,21 -15,71 -0,32 0,22

Dwellings 0 0,08 0,08 0 0,23 0,23 0 0,04 0,04 0 0,22 0,22 0 0,11 0,11 0 0,12 0,12

Trade balance: Services

Documents

Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio - midias.cebri.orgmidias.cebri.org/arquivo/cebri15_vera1.pdf · • Regras de origem • Subsídios ... Mercosul – Palestina 20.12.2011 - *União