Acknowledgments

I ;nn lllPst gratcll.ll nnd pri\·ileged to lla\ e Dr. Pri:antha DC Wi_jetunga. Senior I l'l'tun:r.

( 111i \ LTsil) nt ;\Joratuwa as the super\ isor. I lis 1-.ind and encouraging assistance\\ ith rc~ard to

tile problem formulation. constructing and comments on tht: results is greml) apprcci,lt~..·d

I .un d~..·c p l ,: i ndehted to all the lecturers. col h:agues and li·icnds. too numerous to lllL'tH ion

here. \\I H' h.t \ c (Of1lri huted so generous!) in \ arious stages n f this project <ncr li:\\ months

Spectal lllL'lllton should make to the cng111ecrs in the Cicm:ration Planning Branch. < ' l: B

tMlllcl) \\ '.11 'i I crnando. TAK .la,:ascl-.ara. PVIP Jayatissa and 1:\ Sandasiri.

\l,m: th,mb arc owed cspeciall: to the I fcad and the Staff of the Department or I lccttJc:d

I n!.!i ncc rmg lni\t~rsity of ivloratu\\a. colleagues or the I '' batch op{he !\1.r:ng. P< i Dipl\lmt~ ('pu rsl' in l· lcctrical Engineering and non cxecut i\e staff or the (il.!ncration Planning Hranch.

( l H l"nr <Jssistancl: in reviewing. compl) ing nnd ed iting this report.

I IJJal l: til t..., \\ork is dedicated to my helmed parents \Yho ha\c ah>vays been with me in C\n:

ht11d k· I cleared.

"-. \ ' 'i;\ 1 Kudaligama \L'(1ll'lllhl..'r .=! (){)()

...

. .....

C 1111h:nts

;\lllll"\l'">

I 1..,1 nr I .1hk.., I hi nl" Fi!!url.''> \l'I"Pil\ llb

E 'l't: uti' l' ~ u m rna t·y

I. Introduct io n

., l'll\\Cr \ector Pri\ati-;ation in dcH:Iopmg ( ountric"

...,\,me f"eatures orthe Ptmer ~ector Ill ~ri l.anl..a

I.'

• ~. I ~ tructure

2.2 (JrO\\ th

I.~J I cchnica l Performam:e

1.~.-l Fina nc ial Perl"ormance

1.2 .5 Debt Cri'ii'i

1.2.6 Requirement !"or Ca piwl

l'ri\alc '-;ector Po,,er

rhl' IJ<)OiBOT

I he Project

:!. l n p n l Data

l I 11ad Data

.. ...

2.1.1 < >b<;crYations on [ ,i.,tm~ I lectnc1l~ Lkmantl

., ., 2 1.~ \o.,.,es!>ing the future Lb:tm:Jt~ Demand

f '.!sting s~ stem

2.2.1 HHim (il.'IH:rat ion

2.2 .2 rh~.:rma I General ion

~.~.\ ll;.dro Energy t\vai labil il;.

\crcen ing ol' General ion Opt iolh

2.1 1'1mer Candidates

.1

~. t I fhe rmal Candidates \\i llt l·ca.., i bil il ~ ~ 1 udi~.:" A' ailablc in CU~

.~. Tool-; and P l"01!_ra mmin J.!

> I \tmh Parameter:. ' ., l - \unulation Package Lll\00

' l ;\ kthod\)log~

; -l J>rnhlem f-ormulation

~ -L I na ... l' Ca-,l'

CONTENTS

.....

PHJ.!l'

II

II

Ill Ill

E · I

I - I

I - I

I - I

I -

I - I

I - .,

I - ·' I

I -

- 'I

- (,

- (,

:! - I

- I ... - I -... ' - ' -..., ... "'\

-, - (l

-,

., -2 - X

~ - I

l -

' l -

' ' -' ' -' l -

l'ut;, '

4 l~c~ult~

I I

-L2

4 I

• l

"' (,

( .1se I < )ptimum Plan

Ha-,e C'<t\C Output

< ;~ -,e II Combined lycle fon.:ed in \tage 3

.. 1:-.e Ill - (,a.., Turbine I orccd 111 \ta!.!.e ~

'"e IV Die..,el I urhinc h1rced 111 \la!.!.e 4

~:-.c \ ' Die">el I urbine l·orced 111 ~tagc 3

5. Cone.: hi'>IO II ~

Rdc.:·n· rH.'c~

\

\.2

\ ;

\ -1

'

' ' ' "' ~

' (,

Annexes

Jl t,pular Computer Pad.agc-. for l·lectricit) Planning.

\crcl'll ing of General ion Options

< ompuu.:r Program 13asc Case

Hase Case- Output

List of Tables

< n"" ....,, -,tem l.os..,es <1nd Ll1ad I aelor in the J>a ... t I e\\ ) c.tr:o-.. Pad I P IT CI'-l

.. . ... lk111a11d f t) l'l.'Ca ... t l -,ed lor lhe ":>lud~

r ,,..,ting and Curnmillcd I l)dro Po\\er Plants

I k lai l .... pf l:-.isting: and c,1mmincd I hcrmal Planh

t ''lllPt'"'te Existing and lornmlllcd I henna! and ll)dl'tl J>latth

11:-drn Lnerg.) t\\ailabilit)

i

' ' ( har:-tctcristics ol"' hennal gcncra1ing Plants Ctllhidcrcd a-, t::-.pansion Candida1es

' I c lt aractcristics of fuel used

I I c •ptllna I Plan

I .:: < •ulput ( o,r per each Pl:-tnt ....... • • 1 , 'rn htned C\ clc ~meed 111 ) car 2012

l -l c ' " " l ut httH.: Forced in Y car 200X

ltv .. d l urbtnc l·orced 111 ) ear 20 16

h It c.:· ... ,.: I I urbine l11rced 111 ) e.tt 2012

-..um man

4- I

I - I

I - I

l

I - ._

5 - 1

I~

P:t!!l'

\I

,\ ~

,\ ~

\ 1 - I

' ..,

2 - I

2 - (l

., - ()

' l)

' ' -

I - I

1 - '

! .. (l

" -

/'c "·,

List of Figures

I I t .nmtlll{ates ofClW and 1-,lectricit:- Sale!:> in the Recent Pa-;t

I 2 l'lalll I actors b) Ptmer <;tation-.,

'\

{l'\:t lued Percentage Rate of Return in the Past 10 Years

11\ c-.tmcnt Plan 2000-2009

han~L' 111 Dail:- l1)<1d ( une <her the 'lear.,

1ad 1 >urat1on ( un c., l -.ed lor th~· \tud~

pec1 lic lo-.t ol Candidate I hcnnal Plnnh Di'>ClHIIll Rate- Ill'~,

•llllllan 111 graphical Form

t ·r: B

( d)]>

I,\: f)

\ 1\\

\f) I~

\\ ~ ~

H< >< >

IH)'J

I I

\ 'l \I\ I

t II

Acrronyms

l'e)' ion Ek:ctricity 13oard

Ciro.,., Dnmesl ic [>roduct

I ralhlll ission and Distrihutinn

\1r.:ga Wa tt

.\'>1<111 Dc\elop11H:nt Hank

\\ 11rld Bank

11u tid. 0\\11 and Operate

Huild. Operate and I ran~ler

l. tlad I <!kt OI

\~.,tem \nnulation ~lode!

( O'>l. ln.,urancc and I re1!.!hl

lfi!!,her lleating Value

l

II II\'

1.1"' [)( ) I 1 )( '

I tnl.'r. lnteracti\1.: .md D1..,crete Optnnt!:>l.'r

I oc~d DmalHll1 l un e

I·~~ \ 1neric;1n Dn llar-,

._

1 - ~

1 - :

1 - ~

I- I

' )

...

l'.w

Executive Summary

I his tl'pon Lkscribcs and suggests trade-off methods I(H· ( icncration l·:xpansion Pl~llllllll~

\)tuJies earned out for the period ol· .2000-2017. lhe project examines the ci"ti:ct ul h1111~11l~

l\1mard <~ project '' hich \\Ould othcm isc he included at a latter year in the optimal plan :111d

bnnging 1n a project ''hich is not ''ithin the.: least cost plan. In addition to that tcchnlqlll'S ln1

.lSSCsSill~ the impact of such de\ iations \\ere de\ eloped and the atfects on pncc-. \\l'l"l'

CXUI11111l'd.

rhc stud1es prest:nted in this report \\c..!n: conducted under three-block load duratinn cun l'. tlw

base. the peal.. and the mid peal... The C\isting lndrnelectric plams wcrc used as .1 sin!.!k

compns1 L pl.mt. /

' IlK' thermal plants considered ''ere CoaL Combined C;.clc. <las Turbines. oil-lired siL'alll .llhl

d1cscl pLmts running on residual oil. 1-:xisting therma l plant \\ere represented by six co1npostk

thnnwl plants. It ''as assumed that plunt additions \\ere done in the beginning or the :car and

nonnl"thL' pbnts m:re retired during the planning period.

l•le '-L'Ihiti,·ity nfthc recommcntkd generating plant additions to the changes in Clll11111issl\lllJ IH!

~l·ar '" prescntcd in the report. .. ,..,.

rh.: matnr recommendation is: The m era II cfli:ct or hri nging h.lm ard ,tre. thercl\lre di I krL'Ilt

lrom l".t:-. ... · to case and i1wohe man;. subtle issues that ha\'e to he carefully c\·aluated. < 'crt.llll

mt~di liLalluns to the least cost plan h:ni! a rclall\·el) health) eftcct m-craiL but others may llot.

\11 expansion plan 10 bring forward or bring in an excluded project. on the base u!' .111 llplinl~tl

k.t'-l cn-,t l':\JXIllsion plan, is a trade-ofT plan. Mathcmaticall;. rhc ne\\ plans til:ri\l'd 11L'tc atl' st th

llptimal plans. Since there is no such thing as a un ique sub optimal plan. it is "tsc tiJ;ll :1"

d,xisltlll makers. generation planners ha\ e to C\ aluate the many possi blc nut comes dcri' L'd I i kl·

,tbl l\ l'. . .....

< '"'llLT:tll~ . .1 plan to bring llH\\urd or bring in a pri\atc project is good il. conllit:h anhll1~

pm alL' til\ cstor<.., arc eliminated. uti lit) ill\cstmcnt is reduced and the total cost increases .li"L' nnl

C\CeSsl\ C

/', ll <11<' '"' ' 11111<'11/ lllfl!illl.'r \L'Cior c\· d,•,•toltnnsfrnm h•a11 cos/ pion /'(! ·~' I I