DEVELOPING A SELF-RELIANT MARITIME DEFENSE POSTURE

Rep. FRANCISCO ASHLEY Ace ACEDILLO MAGDALO Party-list

AN EVOLVING CONCEPT OF MARITIME DEFENSE

Defense is better defined under an all-encompassing pursuit of Security

Maritime defense, therefore, must be guided by a National Security Strategy (grand strategy) that prioritizes the maritime aspect (maritime strategy)

A 3-PRONGED MARITIME STRATEGY*

A Strategy of Wealth

A Strategy of Means

Naval Strategy

*CAPT Lars Weidin, French Navy (Ret). Sea Power and Air Power. Some Thoughts About the Future.

A STRATEGY OF WEALTH

!A maritime strategy must afford a nation the richness and bounty of its seas and

the myriad opportunities it offers

A STRATEGY OF WEALTH

It must promote and ensure seaborne trade of goods, oil, and natural gas

It should conserve & sustain a harvest of fish and other marine resources

A STRATEGY OF WEALTH

It must allow exploration and extraction of offshore oil and natural gas

It should foster coastal tourism

Make possible mineral seabed exploration & marine biotechnology

A STRATEGY OF MEANS

!A maritime strategy must conceive and acquire the

wherewithal (ships, platforms, etc.) necessary to pursue its

maritime strategic objectives

NAVAL STRATEGY

This is the strategy of action by forces in the maritime field.

Maritime forces are all forces that have a vocation to act on the sea: navy, coast guard, maritime air based on land and so forth

NAVAL STRATEGY

UNITED STATES MARITIME STRATEGY

COUNTRIES THAT DID IT RIGHT

MALAYSIA: Self-Reliant Defense as a National Vision

4 Pillars of Malaysias offset model: POLICY, IMPLEMENTATION, BENEFITS, GOALS.

Called Techno-Vision: model adapted from Malaysias Vision 2020 (Wawasan 2020) policy

Vision 2020 aimed to create both effective utilization of current technology and increased absorption of new technology to assist the industrialisation process, enhancing Malaysias international competitiveness

Techno-Vision Model of Malaysia

COUNTRIES THAT DID IT RIGHT

TURKEY: Self-Reliant Defense as a Product of Defense (MOD) Reorganization

The govt. initiated moves to realize the modernization of the Turkish Armed Forces

Sought to establish a national defence industry based on contemporary technology as the primary goal

In 1985, passed Law No. 3238 putting the Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (SSM) in charge of modernizing the national defense infrastructure in Turkey

COUNTRIES THAT DID IT RIGHT

COUNTRIES THAT DID IT RIGHT

TURKEY: Self-Reliant Defense as a Product of Ministry (MOD) Reorganizing

The Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (SSM) achieved this in a little over a decade by - reorganizing and integrating the existing national industry, encouraging new enterprises, seeking foreign capital and/or foreign technology infusion, and providing guidance (and if necessary, state subsidy) to private enterprises

COUNTRIES THAT DID IT RIGHT

AUSTRALIA: Self-Reliant Defense as a Part of an Industry Sustainment Policy

To maintain sovereign, national support for sensitive technologies not available from third-party international sources

This also allows Australian naval vessels to meet specific national needs or operating doctrines

COUNTRIES THAT DID IT RIGHT

AUSTRALIA: Self-Reliant Defense as a Part of an Industry Sustainment Policy

Control sensitive information about the technologies and capabilities of its warships

Address political sensitivities, seeing that most shipbuilding industries employ large numbers of workers, hence politicians have a vested interest in preserving a healthy domestic industry

Stimulate the domestic economy at large

COUNTRIES THAT DID IT RIGHT

Production of naval warships in Australia involves a 30 percent to 40 percent price premium over the cost of comparable production at shipyards overseas. This premium could drop over time, however, with steady production drumbeats and mature designs.

CORRELATING COUNTRY R&D SPENDING WITH WEAPONS QUALITY

McKinsey & Company

CORRELATING COUNTRY R&D SPENDING WITH WEAPONS QUALITY

McKinseys Steven Bowns generated a historical conversion function of R&D investment into a quantified metric, MEQ (Military Equipment Quality)

MEQ compares one aspect of the fighting power of one military with the same aspect of the fighting power of another

MEQ analysis involved using conjoint techniques to assess 69 categories of military equipment across ten countries and five time periods dating back to 1971, generating like-for-like comparisons of the equipments fitness for purpose

The MEQ framework produced expert ratings on the overall quality of 5,500 pieces of military equipment a statistical robustness that gives MEQ much greater reliability than any other published measure of defense output to date.

CORRELATING COUNTRY R&D SPENDING WITH WEAPONS QUALITY

The overall correlation between MEQ scores and R&D investment 25 years prior came out to be 0.9 (almost a 1-to-1 correlation) a very strong indication that, over time, governments got what they paid for. MEQ, if coupled with a measure of troop quality, could well predict the outcome of future wars.

CORRELATING COUNTRY R&D SPENDING WITH WEAPONS QUALITY

QUO VADIS, PHILIPPINES?

A RANKING OF NAVIES

RAND Corporation

A RANKING OF NAVIES

RAND Corporation

A RANKING OF NAVIES

RAND Corporation

Philippines

A RANKING OF NAVIES

RAND Corporation

Philippines

GovernmentGuidance

CapabilityPartitions

OperationalConcepts

Scenarios

DefencePriorities

Capability Goals

Current andPlanned Capability

Future Environment(Threat, Technology, etc) Capability

Assessment

IdentifyCapabilityMismatches

ForceDevelopment

Options

Balance ofInvestment

ResourceConstraints

Affordable CapabilityDevelopment Plan

DefencePriorities

Opt

iona

l

GENERIC PROCESS CHART OF CAPABILITY-BASED PLANNING

Self-Reliant Maritime Defense

Government

DemandSupply

Technology

Self-Reliant Defense Posture

Government Demand

Supply Technology

Laws Policies Regulations Procedures

Domestic Market AFP National Police

Commercial Market Export Market

Defence & Industrial Base & Govt Arsenal Phil. Assoc. of Defence Manufacturers (PADM)

DOST Research and Devt Centres University Laboratories Knowledge & Skills

Source: Robert Sylim, Cranfield University

SRDP Viewed from the Lens of Industrialization

30

SRDP Viewed from the Lens of Industrialization

31

POINTS OF EMPHASIS

The need - and primacy - for a NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY (NSS) that defines what our National Interests are and lays down the ENDS, WAY, and MEANS to achieve these interests - cannot be overstated !

The NSS should be a Presidential undertaking (similar to the 1987 U.S. Goldwater-Nichols Act), in effect becoming a companion document to the Philippine Development Plan (or MTPDP) !

The formulation of succeeding subordinate strategies, especially the National Defense Strategy and the National Military Strategy, spring forth from the NSS 32

POINTS OF EMPHASIS

Our countrys MARITIME STRATEGY, therefore, must be subsumed and complementary to our National Defense Strategy !

The Philippine Navys Active Archipelagic Defense Strategy (AADS) shall become the bedrock of Philippine Maritime Strategy and complementary to the National Coast Watch System (NCWS) !

The short-term (2013-2017), as well as medium-to-long term (2018-2028), horizons of the AADS have been laid down by RA 10349 (AFP Modernization Act of 2012) !

The provisions of the Modernization Law pertaining to a Self-Reliance Defense Program (SRDP), although it mentions countertrade, are insufficient when pursuing a truly Self-Reliant Maritime Defense Posture 33

POINTS OF EMPHASIS

A Self-Reliant Maritime Defense Posture that is truly robust must derive its mandate from the synergy of sound economic policy (MTPDP-PDP/Investment Priorities Plan) and a well-articulated security strategy (NSS) !

Changes to the regulatory framework affecting the Defense Industrial Base (DIB) - namely RA 9184 (Government Procurement Reform Act), RA 10349 (AFP Modernization Law), laws on investments and tax incentives, among others - should form part of the DND-AFP legislative agenda !

The countrys SRDP, vis-a-vis the current Modernization Programs acquisition plan, can get a shot in the arm if the Defense Acquisition System (DAS) Office of DND will formulate an effective Countertrade Policy/Guidelines !

Congress must legislate a national policy to institute and provide funding to increase government-industry collaboration to heighten R&D and innovation (similar to the America COMPETES Act) 34

A Countertrade Policy for Defense

35

A Countertrade Policy for Defense - OFFSETS

36Defense offsets: From contractual burden to competitive weapon, McKinsey and Company. 2014.

Caveats to Self-Reliance

Requires a steep learning curve (and the concomitant, albeit painful, lessons to be learned) !

Countertrade and offsets have been prone to allegations of corruption and wrongdoing !

Current procurement laws put primacy on lowest cost (under SRDP, you might need to spend more) 37

Caveats to Self-Reliance

Efforts at defense self-reliance can quickly shift to the guns vs. butter debate !

Advocates of Philippine Maritime Strategy must prepare also for the BUILD vs. BUY debate !

Prepare also for peripheral debates on whether or not Philippines must acquire submarine capabilities 38

Caveats to Self-Reliance

If we find ourselves needing another Modernization Law after 2028, then both the broad objectives of modernization and its subordinate goal of a self-reliant defense posture HAVE FAILED !

Therefore, our defense planners must ensure that the development, acquisition and sustainment of weapons and equipment for maritime defense thrive under regular budgetary appropriations and a vibrant defense industrial base !

The latter, I believe, is the true meaning of SELF-RELIANT MARITIME DEFENSE! 39

DEVELOPING A SELF-RELIANT MARITIME DEFENSE POSTURE

Rep. FRANCISCO ASHLEY Ace ACEDILLO MAGDALO Party-list

END OF PRESENTATION