ACCELERATING INTEGRATED EAST AFRICAN RIFT SYSTEMrsquoS GEOTHERMAL POWER DEVELOPMENT AS MEANS OF ACHIEVING LONG-TERM SUB SAHARAN STABLE ENERGY SUPPLY

RALPH KB NYAKABWA-ATWOKI

TECHNICAL DIRECTOR

SUSTENERSOL UGANDA LIMITED

UGANDA

Objective of this presentation To brief the delegates the need for

bullAccelerating integration of EAR Systemrsquos power resources development to cure sub Saharan Africanrsquos bleak electric energy supply

bullTaking cognizance of abundant opportunities existing in geothermal power financial engineering procurement and construction

bullAnd as means of achieving the lsquoMagic in 40 Yearsrsquo Thousands-Megawatts or Electricity for All development goals the EAC member countries have set for themselves

Outline of the presentation

bull East African Community amp economic and energy outlook

bull Africa and EAC Bleak Energy Scenario

bull Regional geothermal resources

bull Challenges to East African regional integration

bull Available geothermal development facilities

bull Conclusions

bull Acknowledgement

The Dark Continent Africa by Night

The East African Community

Original EAC was formed in 1963 with Kenya Tanzania and Uganda as members the most enviable regional communities replete with a single currency comprehensive services railway airline ports and harbors custom union post and telecommunication system collapsed in 1977 under Ugandarsquos HE Amin Dada (RIP) rule

Was revived in 2000 after ratification of the EAC treaty signed in 1999 by Kenya Uganda and Tanzania Rwanda Burundi in 2007 and South Sudan last March 2016

Within this framework member states have established a customs union a common market a monetary union and ultimately a political federation to strengthen regulate and enhance an accelerated harmonious equitable and sustained economic development

Regional Economic Indicators EAC Electricity consumption compared to China

Country

HDI

RANK

2013

Geography Doing

Business

Electricity Consumption (Mill)

Rank MWh Year

Per Capita Wperson

China - HDI 90 Coastal 11 1 5523-Bill

Kenya -LDI 145 Coastal 108 107 5738000 16

Tanzania 151 Coastal 139 120 3431000 9

Uganda 163 Landlocked 122 137 1958000 7

Rwanda 163 Landlocked 62 174 273400 2

S Sudan 169 Landlocked 187 165 694100 Indehellip

Burundi 184 Landlocked 152 183 282900 3

Indehellipdifficult to determine

Energy Sector Indicators compared to South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

Avera

ge p

er

cap

ita

watt

sp

ers

on

hellip

Source CIA ldquoThe World Fact Book (Current Edition)

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Objective of this presentation To brief the delegates the need for

bullAccelerating integration of EAR Systemrsquos power resources development to cure sub Saharan Africanrsquos bleak electric energy supply

bullTaking cognizance of abundant opportunities existing in geothermal power financial engineering procurement and construction

bullAnd as means of achieving the lsquoMagic in 40 Yearsrsquo Thousands-Megawatts or Electricity for All development goals the EAC member countries have set for themselves

Outline of the presentation

bull East African Community amp economic and energy outlook

bull Africa and EAC Bleak Energy Scenario

bull Regional geothermal resources

bull Challenges to East African regional integration

bull Available geothermal development facilities

bull Conclusions

bull Acknowledgement

The Dark Continent Africa by Night

The East African Community

Original EAC was formed in 1963 with Kenya Tanzania and Uganda as members the most enviable regional communities replete with a single currency comprehensive services railway airline ports and harbors custom union post and telecommunication system collapsed in 1977 under Ugandarsquos HE Amin Dada (RIP) rule

Was revived in 2000 after ratification of the EAC treaty signed in 1999 by Kenya Uganda and Tanzania Rwanda Burundi in 2007 and South Sudan last March 2016

Within this framework member states have established a customs union a common market a monetary union and ultimately a political federation to strengthen regulate and enhance an accelerated harmonious equitable and sustained economic development

Regional Economic Indicators EAC Electricity consumption compared to China

Country

HDI

RANK

2013

Geography Doing

Business

Electricity Consumption (Mill)

Rank MWh Year

Per Capita Wperson

China - HDI 90 Coastal 11 1 5523-Bill

Kenya -LDI 145 Coastal 108 107 5738000 16

Tanzania 151 Coastal 139 120 3431000 9

Uganda 163 Landlocked 122 137 1958000 7

Rwanda 163 Landlocked 62 174 273400 2

S Sudan 169 Landlocked 187 165 694100 Indehellip

Burundi 184 Landlocked 152 183 282900 3

Indehellipdifficult to determine

Energy Sector Indicators compared to South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

Avera

ge p

er

cap

ita

watt

sp

ers

on

hellip

Source CIA ldquoThe World Fact Book (Current Edition)

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Outline of the presentation

bull East African Community amp economic and energy outlook

bull Africa and EAC Bleak Energy Scenario

bull Regional geothermal resources

bull Challenges to East African regional integration

bull Available geothermal development facilities

bull Conclusions

bull Acknowledgement

The Dark Continent Africa by Night

The East African Community

Original EAC was formed in 1963 with Kenya Tanzania and Uganda as members the most enviable regional communities replete with a single currency comprehensive services railway airline ports and harbors custom union post and telecommunication system collapsed in 1977 under Ugandarsquos HE Amin Dada (RIP) rule

Was revived in 2000 after ratification of the EAC treaty signed in 1999 by Kenya Uganda and Tanzania Rwanda Burundi in 2007 and South Sudan last March 2016

Within this framework member states have established a customs union a common market a monetary union and ultimately a political federation to strengthen regulate and enhance an accelerated harmonious equitable and sustained economic development

Regional Economic Indicators EAC Electricity consumption compared to China

Country

HDI

RANK

2013

Geography Doing

Business

Electricity Consumption (Mill)

Rank MWh Year

Per Capita Wperson

China - HDI 90 Coastal 11 1 5523-Bill

Kenya -LDI 145 Coastal 108 107 5738000 16

Tanzania 151 Coastal 139 120 3431000 9

Uganda 163 Landlocked 122 137 1958000 7

Rwanda 163 Landlocked 62 174 273400 2

S Sudan 169 Landlocked 187 165 694100 Indehellip

Burundi 184 Landlocked 152 183 282900 3

Indehellipdifficult to determine

Energy Sector Indicators compared to South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

Avera

ge p

er

cap

ita

watt

sp

ers

on

hellip

Source CIA ldquoThe World Fact Book (Current Edition)

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

The Dark Continent Africa by Night

The East African Community

Original EAC was formed in 1963 with Kenya Tanzania and Uganda as members the most enviable regional communities replete with a single currency comprehensive services railway airline ports and harbors custom union post and telecommunication system collapsed in 1977 under Ugandarsquos HE Amin Dada (RIP) rule

Was revived in 2000 after ratification of the EAC treaty signed in 1999 by Kenya Uganda and Tanzania Rwanda Burundi in 2007 and South Sudan last March 2016

Within this framework member states have established a customs union a common market a monetary union and ultimately a political federation to strengthen regulate and enhance an accelerated harmonious equitable and sustained economic development

Regional Economic Indicators EAC Electricity consumption compared to China

Country

HDI

RANK

2013

Geography Doing

Business

Electricity Consumption (Mill)

Rank MWh Year

Per Capita Wperson

China - HDI 90 Coastal 11 1 5523-Bill

Kenya -LDI 145 Coastal 108 107 5738000 16

Tanzania 151 Coastal 139 120 3431000 9

Uganda 163 Landlocked 122 137 1958000 7

Rwanda 163 Landlocked 62 174 273400 2

S Sudan 169 Landlocked 187 165 694100 Indehellip

Burundi 184 Landlocked 152 183 282900 3

Indehellipdifficult to determine

Energy Sector Indicators compared to South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

Avera

ge p

er

cap

ita

watt

sp

ers

on

hellip

Source CIA ldquoThe World Fact Book (Current Edition)

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

The East African Community

Original EAC was formed in 1963 with Kenya Tanzania and Uganda as members the most enviable regional communities replete with a single currency comprehensive services railway airline ports and harbors custom union post and telecommunication system collapsed in 1977 under Ugandarsquos HE Amin Dada (RIP) rule

Was revived in 2000 after ratification of the EAC treaty signed in 1999 by Kenya Uganda and Tanzania Rwanda Burundi in 2007 and South Sudan last March 2016

Within this framework member states have established a customs union a common market a monetary union and ultimately a political federation to strengthen regulate and enhance an accelerated harmonious equitable and sustained economic development

Regional Economic Indicators EAC Electricity consumption compared to China

Country

HDI

RANK

2013

Geography Doing

Business

Electricity Consumption (Mill)

Rank MWh Year

Per Capita Wperson

China - HDI 90 Coastal 11 1 5523-Bill

Kenya -LDI 145 Coastal 108 107 5738000 16

Tanzania 151 Coastal 139 120 3431000 9

Uganda 163 Landlocked 122 137 1958000 7

Rwanda 163 Landlocked 62 174 273400 2

S Sudan 169 Landlocked 187 165 694100 Indehellip

Burundi 184 Landlocked 152 183 282900 3

Indehellipdifficult to determine

Energy Sector Indicators compared to South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

Avera

ge p

er

cap

ita

watt

sp

ers

on

hellip

Source CIA ldquoThe World Fact Book (Current Edition)

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Regional Economic Indicators EAC Electricity consumption compared to China

Country

HDI

RANK

2013

Geography Doing

Business

Electricity Consumption (Mill)

Rank MWh Year

Per Capita Wperson

China - HDI 90 Coastal 11 1 5523-Bill

Kenya -LDI 145 Coastal 108 107 5738000 16

Tanzania 151 Coastal 139 120 3431000 9

Uganda 163 Landlocked 122 137 1958000 7

Rwanda 163 Landlocked 62 174 273400 2

S Sudan 169 Landlocked 187 165 694100 Indehellip

Burundi 184 Landlocked 152 183 282900 3

Indehellipdifficult to determine

Energy Sector Indicators compared to South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

Avera

ge p

er

cap

ita

watt

sp

ers

on

hellip

Source CIA ldquoThe World Fact Book (Current Edition)

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Energy Sector Indicators compared to South Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

Avera

ge p

er

cap

ita

watt

sp

ers

on

hellip

Source CIA ldquoThe World Fact Book (Current Edition)

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

EAC External Trade Scenario

Countr

y

Trade flow Trade Balance

Export Import Negative Positive

Burundi 329 4673 2004 - 2009 -

Rwand

a 2260 13645 2004 - 2009 -

Uganda 14806 30464 2004-2009 -

Kenya 58523 7196 - 2004 -

2009

Tanzani

a 12000 11061 2004 - 2006

2007 -

2009

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

EAC Geothermal Resources

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Geology of Regional Geothermal Resource

bull Cratons are essentially cold except where radiogenic heating of ground water may engender relatively low discharge and temperature thermal springs

bull An exception is the Old thick cold essentially isotropic and too strong to be substantially faulted and rifted to allow upward heat and mass transfer from the mantle

bull Dodoma craton It stand at an elevation ~500m higher than the adjacent Congo craton due to thermal uplift over the mantle tumescence the African Super plume Upward heat conduction contributes to heating the thermal waters

bull Where underlain by tumescent mantle they may refract heat and mass transfer paths into the more mobile peri-cratonic orogenic belts

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

THE PARADOX Energy Poverty in Middle of Plenty

Considering only the renewable energy sources Africarsquos potential in TWh

Wind power 5000 ndash 7000

Solar Energy 155000 -170000

Hydropower 1844

Bagasse 30 - 136

Geothermal Unmeasured but very large potential

Of the non-intermittent sources 9 of a minuscule of the geothermal potentials have been developed by 2011

(From IRENA 2010)

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Challenges to East African Regional Integration

Political Consensus and Sovereignty Developing appropriate regional infrastructure

is an aspect of regional integration Compared with economic or political integration infrastructure integration has more clearly defined benefits and requires countries to cede less sovereignty Regional infrastructure cooperation is therefore a good first step toward broader integration Unfortunately almost all such opportunities in Africa involve crossing frontiers between sovereign states In all of this governments are understandably concerned with preserving national sovereignty

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Internal Regional Challenges

The major constraints are The planned processes of member states do not take into cognizance of the need to have a regional component in the planning process as opposed to matter of interests of individual member states Consensus becomes difficult because of country fixed briefs with no room for flexibility as opposed to what are regional interests Member countries do not pay their dues on time Un even human resource technical competencies in geosciences and technologies and Fear to combat corruption because of risk to commit political suicide

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

External Regional Challenges

Some of the key challenges facing the regional the geothermal industry are the reluctance of many investors to finance exploration endeavors week ability to attract sufficient and competitive foreign direct investment as well as risks that directly affect production power markets venture liquidity and profitability that are external in character These risks are the same as those that face the investors in other large projects elsewhere in the world but more pronounced in geothermal exploration especially before the advent of the successful showcased Kenyan geothermal power projects

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

The Gazelle amp Lion Strategy

All I have to do is to run faster than the

slost gazelle around a little bit faster

because todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest gazelle

All I have to do is to run faster

than the slowest gazelle around

a little bit faster because

todayrsquos slowest gazelle runs

faster than yesterdayrsquos slowest

gazelle And at the same time the

gazelle is aware that it must

continuously improve its own

speed or one day it will

inevitably be the slowest

Regional Programmes

All East African Country Energy Regulators are Members the Energy Regulators Association of East Africa (EREA) and are represented at the Power Working Group of The East African Community and partner with Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP) to Implement Regional Power Master Plan There are numerous Regional and Continental Africa Private Sector Researchers engaged in The Power Sector to Compliment Public Sector Players

Membersrsquo Commitment

Member countriesrsquo governments should reaffirm

their commitment towards Harmonization of their

national geothermal policies and laws into

regional policies and legislation foster the

Promotion of technical cooperation by pooling

resources manpower and equipment for

geothermal resources exploration and

development overcoming their concern about

preserving national sovereignty and encourage

zero-sum thinking which is a better strategy of

responsible sovereignty

The Chorus of Presidents

Conclusion Integrate and develop geothermal resource to overcome bull Imbalance in region energy national

financial and associated risks investorsrsquo reluctance to investing large capital in exploration optimizing regional and international facilities for triggering private investments and their protection

bull Challenges facing African countries in environmental destruction protection response to the impact of climate changes to economies and attendant climate risk management calls for the integrated geothermal resource development

Acknowledgement

ENTASIIMA ERYA BIKE

THANK You FOR YOUR

ATTENTION

Membersrsquo Commitment

Member countriesrsquo governments should reaffirm

their commitment towards Harmonization of their

national geothermal policies and laws into

regional policies and legislation foster the

Promotion of technical cooperation by pooling

resources manpower and equipment for

geothermal resources exploration and

development overcoming their concern about

preserving national sovereignty and encourage

zero-sum thinking which is a better strategy of

responsible sovereignty

The Chorus of Presidents

Conclusion Integrate and develop geothermal resource to overcome bull Imbalance in region energy national

financial and associated risks investorsrsquo reluctance to investing large capital in exploration optimizing regional and international facilities for triggering private investments and their protection

bull Challenges facing African countries in environmental destruction protection response to the impact of climate changes to economies and attendant climate risk management calls for the integrated geothermal resource development

Acknowledgement

ENTASIIMA ERYA BIKE

THANK You FOR YOUR

ATTENTION

The Chorus of Presidents

Conclusion Integrate and develop geothermal resource to overcome bull Imbalance in region energy national

financial and associated risks investorsrsquo reluctance to investing large capital in exploration optimizing regional and international facilities for triggering private investments and their protection

bull Challenges facing African countries in environmental destruction protection response to the impact of climate changes to economies and attendant climate risk management calls for the integrated geothermal resource development

Acknowledgement

ENTASIIMA ERYA BIKE

THANK You FOR YOUR

ATTENTION

Conclusion Integrate and develop geothermal resource to overcome bull Imbalance in region energy national

financial and associated risks investorsrsquo reluctance to investing large capital in exploration optimizing regional and international facilities for triggering private investments and their protection

bull Challenges facing African countries in environmental destruction protection response to the impact of climate changes to economies and attendant climate risk management calls for the integrated geothermal resource development

Acknowledgement

ENTASIIMA ERYA BIKE

THANK You FOR YOUR

ATTENTION

Acknowledgement

ENTASIIMA ERYA BIKE

THANK You FOR YOUR

ATTENTION