ACC Analysis by Vikram

8/6/2019 ACC Analysis by Vikram

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All figures in Rs Crores

2007 2008 2009

Net Sales 7865.11 8300.18 8803.17

Growth in Sales YoY 5.53 6.06

Other Operating Income 0 166.52 165.4Ad Hoc

Other Income 380.62 156.38 80.46

Ad Hoc

Total Income 8245.73 8623.08 9049.03

TOTAL EXPENDITURE

Raw Material Consumed 799.51 1029.81 1167.69 1450.95

% of Sales 10.17% 12.41% 13.26% 16.85%

Stock Adjustment -1.17 -1.96 -28.74 -56.58

Purchase of Finished Goods 93.31 122.94 129.16 149

% of Sales 1.19% 1.48% 1.47% 1.73%

Employee Expenses 357.09 449.65 401.2 498.2

% of Sales 4.54% 5.42% 4.56% 5.79%

Power, Oil & Fuel 1247.68 1611.81 1550.88 1610.2

% of Sales 15.86% 19.42% 17.62% 18.70%

Selling & Administrative Expenses 937.9 997.52 ` 1092.73 1125.79

% of Sales 11.92% 12.02% 12.41% 13.08%

Other Expenses 1681.92 1817.84 1704.36 1938.33

% of Sales 21.38% 21.90% 19.36% 22.51%

Total Expenditure 5116.24 6027.61 6017.28

EBIDTA 3129.49 2595.47 3031.75

(-)Depreciation 313.02 320.54 373.13

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2816.47 2274.93 2658.62

(-)Interest 74.38 39.99 84.36

Profit before Tax 2742.09 2234.94 2574.26

(-) Tax 478.22 511.68 686.79

(-) Fringe Benefit Tax 5.94 8.27 9.78

(-) Deferred Tax -4.05 11.6 3.71

Profit After Tax 2261.98 1703.39 1873.98

Extra-ordinary Items 139.25 161.72 29.05

Adjusted Profit After Extra-ordinary item 2122.73 1541.67 1844.93

Dividend 375.02 375.33 431.76


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Equity Dividend % 150% 200% 200%

% of PAT 17.67% 24.35% 23.40%

EPS 113.01 82.06 98.17


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2010 Basis 2011E 2012E 2013E

8609.29 9470.22 10417.24 11458.96

-2.2 10.00 10.00 10.00

262.7 262 262 262

97.84 97.84 97.84 97.84

8969.83 9830.06 10777.08 11818.8

Average of last 4 year 1247.47 1372.21 1509.43

13.17%

0 0.00 0.00


1.47%


5.08%

1704.64 1770.93 1833.43

18% 17% 16%

1231.13 1302.16 1375.08

13% 12.50% 12%


21.29%

6715.89 6818.99 7344.63 7907.21

2253.94 3011.07 3432.45 3911.60

427.72 547.02 619.02 695.82

1826.22 2464.05 2813.43 3215.78

57.93 47.95 47.95 47.95

1768.29 2416.1 2765.48 3167.83

341.36 Tax Rate 724.83 829.65 950.35

0 30%

0

1426.93 1691.27 1935.84 2217.48

185.92 0 0 0

1241.01 1691.27 1935.84 2217.48

572.63 563.85 657.83 751.8


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230% 300% 350% 400%

46.14% 33.34% 33.98% 33.90%

66.03 89.99 103 117.98


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2014E 2015E

12604.86 13865.35

10.00 10.00

262 262

97.84 97.84

12964.7 14225.19

1660.38 1826.42

0.00 0.00

184.83 203.32

639.75 703.73

1890.73 1941.15

15% 14%

1449.56 1525.19

11.50% 11%

2683.6 2951.96

8508.86 9151.76

4455.85 5073.43

777.42 863.82

3678.43 4209.61

25.35 25.35

3653.08 4184.26

1095.92 1255.28

2557.16 2928.98

0 0

2557.16 2928.98

845.78 845.73


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450% 450%

33.07% 28.87%

136.06 155.85


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2007 2008

SOURCES OF FUNDS :

Share Capital 187.83 187.88

Reserves Total 3974.4 4636.37

Total Shareholders Funds 4162.27 4824.25

Minority Interest 8.05 2.45

Secured Loans 266.03 450Unsecured Loans 48.67 32.03

Total Debt 314.7 482.03

Capital Employed

Total Liabilities 4485.02 5308.73

APPLICATION OF FUNDS :

Gross Block 5464.07 371.6 5835.67

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 2149.35 216.62 2365.97

Net Block 3314.72 3469.7

Capital Work in Progress 649.19 953.67 1602.86

Investments 844.81 679.08

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventories 730.86 793.27

% of Sales 9.29% 9.56%

Sundry Debtors 289.29 310.17

% of Sales 3.68% 3.74%

Cash and Bank 746.41 991.48

Loans and Advances 439.99 554.1

Total Current Assets 2206.68 2649.02

Less : Current Liabilities and Provisions

Current Liabilities 1573.25 1876.25

% of Sales 20.00% 22.60%

Provisions 668.06 965.51

% of Sales 8.49% 11.63%

Total Current Liabilities 2241.31 2841.76

Net Current Assets -34.63 -192.74

Miscellaneous Expenses not written off 1.0 1.41

Deferred Tax Liability -338.02 -342.08

Total Assets 4437.07 5218.23

Contingent Liabilities 890.62 1734.21

Gross block as % of capex

Maintenance/Other Capex

Total Capex

Depreciation / avg gross block 6%


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2009 2010 Basis 2011

187.94 187.95 187.95

5681.92 6092.77 7220.19

5869.86 6280.72 7408.14

2.4 2.4 2.4

550 518 5007.18 5.77 0

557.18 523.77 500

7908.14

6429.44 6806.89 7910.54

990.6 6826.27 1250.68 8076.95 1040 9116.95 1200

302.01 2667.98 326.53 2994.51 547.02 3541.53 619.02

4158.29 5082.44 5575.42

553.35 2156.21 -593.41 1562.8 156 1718.8 192

1475.64 1702.67 CAGR last 3 yrs 2554.0158%

778.98 914.98 Average 907.40

8.85% 10.63% 9.58%

203.7 178.28 Average 279.37

2.31% 2.07% 2.95%

754.42 1080.02 1047.97

515.74 523.93 600

2252.84 2697.21 2834.74

1963.91 2093.95 2462.26

22.31% 24.32% 26%

1150 1652.46 1894.04

13.06% 19.19% 20%

3113.91 3746.41 4356.30

-861.07 -1049.20 -1521.56

1.13 0.89 0

-349.25 -361.53 -361.53

6580.95 6938.07 7965.14

840.52 474.12 0

80%

20%

1561 100% 1300

Ad Hoc

5.9% 6% 6%


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2012 2013 2014 2015

187.95 187.95 187.95 187.94

8498.21 9963.89 11675.27 13758.52

8686.16 10151.84 11863.22 13946.46

2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

500 500 500 3000 0 0 0

500 500 500 300

9186.16 10651.84 12363.22 14246.46

9188.56 10654.24 12365.62 14248.86

10316.95 1280 11596.95 1360 12956.95 1440 14396.95

4160.54 695.82 4856.36 777.42 5633.78 863.82 6497.60

6156.41 6740.59 7323.17 7899.36

1910.8 217.6 2128.4 244.8 2373.2 273.6 2646.8

3831.01 5746.51 8619.77 10343.72

998.14 1097.95 1207.75 1328.52

307.30 338.03 371.84 409.02

1748.98 2600.86 3693.00 4986.27

700 800 900 1000

3754.42 4836.85 6172.58 7723.81

2916.83 3323.10 3781.46 4298.26

28% 29% 30% 31%

2187.62 2520.97 2899.12 3050.38

21% 22% 23% 22%

5104.45 5844.07 6680.58 7348.63

-1350.02 -1007.23 -508.00 375.18

0 0 0 0

151.19

505.82

-361.53 -361.53 -361.53 -354.63

10186.66 13246.74 17446.61 20910.42

0 0 0 0

1500 1600 1700 1800


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RATIOS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

Liquidity Ratios

Current Ratio 0.98 0.93 0.72 0.72 0.65

Quick Ratio 0.66 0.65 0.47 0.48 0.44

Turnover Ratios

Account Recievable Turnover Ratio/Debtor Turnover Rati 27.19 27.69 34.26 45.08 41.39

Inventory Turnover Ratio 10.76 10.89 11.20 10.16 10.39

Profitability or Efficiency Ratio

Net Profit Margin Ratio 26.99 18.57 20.96 14.41 17.86

Operating Profit Margin Ratio 35.81 27.41 30.20 21.21 26.02

Asset Turnover Ratio 1.77 1.72 1.49 1.27 1.27

Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio 3.70 3.36 2.09 2.12 1.92

Return on Capital Employed 62.91 42.87 41.37 26.84 31.16

Return on Net Worth/ Return on Shareholder's Equity (RO 51.00 31.96 31.43 19.76 22.83

Earning Power 63.48% 47.12% 45.06% 27.02% 33.07%

Ownership Ratios

Earning Per Share 113.01 82.06 98.17 66.03 89.99

Leverage Ratios

K-Structure Ratio

Debt-Equity Ratio 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07

Debt-Asset Ratio 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.06

Proprietary Ratio 0.94 0.92 0.89 0.91 0.93

Coverage Ratio

Interest Coverage Ratio 37.87 56.89 31.52 31.52 51.39

Dividend Ratio


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Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 17.67% 24.35% 23.40% 46.14% 33.34%


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2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

0.74 0.83 0.92 1.05

0.54 0.64 0.74 0.87

35.51 35.51 35.51 35.51

10.93 10.93 10.93 10.93

18.58 19.35 20.29 21.12

27.01 28.06 29.18 30.36

1.15 0.98 0.82 0.72

1.68 1.41 1.15 1.08

30.63 30.19 29.75 29.55

22.29 21.84 21.56 21.00

31.00% 27.45% 23.97% 21.95%

103.00 117.98 136.06 155.85

0.06 0.05 0.04 0.02

0.05 0.04 0.03 0.01

0.85 0.77 0.68 0.67

58.67 67.07 145.11 166.06


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33.98% 33.90% 33.07% 28.87%


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E

0.00

0.10

0.200.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00


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15E

Current Ratio

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 201

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

2015E

Quick Ratio

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

2012E

2013E

2

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

10.60

10.80

11.00

11.20

11.40


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E 2015E

Debtor Turnover Ratio

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

4E

2015E

Inventory Turnover Ratio


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2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Gross Profit Margin

Ratio

2007

2008

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Net Profit Margin Ratio

2007 2008

0.00

0.20

0.400.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00


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2009

2010

2011E

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

Operating Profit Margin

Ratio

200

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Asset Turnover Ratio

2

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00


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7 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Fixed Asset Turnover

ratio

007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

ROCE


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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Return on Net

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Earni


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Worth

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

ng Power

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12


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Earning Per Share

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 201

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.070.08

0.09

0.10

Debt-Equity Ratio

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00


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E 2015E

Debt-Asset Ratio

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

201

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00140.00

160.00

180.00

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

0.00%

5.00%10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

E 2014E 2015E

Proprietary Ratio


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E

2013E

2014E

2015E

Interest Coverage Ratio

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

Dividend Payout Ratio


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2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

EBIT 2464.05 2813.43 3215.78 3678.43 4209.61

Tax Rate (30%) 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

NOPAT 1724.84 1969.4 2251.05 2574.9 2946.73

Capital Expenditure 1300 1500 1600 1700 1800Depreciation 492.3 564.3 641.1 722.7 809.1

Change in W.C -472.36 171.54 342.80 499.23 883.17

Free Cash Flow 1389.5 862.17 949.35 1098.37 1072.65

Present Value of FCF 1195.37 638.09 604.45 601.63 505.45

Cumulative Present Value of FCF 3544.99

Terminal Value 11103.66

Present Value of Terminal Value 5232.24

Total PV of Cash Flows 8777.23

Cash 1080.02

Debt 523.77

Net Debt as on '10 -556.25

Fair Value of Equity 9333.48

No. of Shares Outstanding 18.79

Fair Value Per Share (in Rs) 496.62


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2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14

NOPAT 1724.84 1969.4 2251.05 2574.9 2946.73

WACC 16.24%

Capital employed 7908.14 9186.16 10651.84 12363.22 14246.46

0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15

EVA 440.56 477.57 521.19 567.11 633.18.4% 9.1% 8.8% 11.6%

Terminal Value of EVA 6553.59

PV of EVA 379 353.45 331.84 310.63 298.33

Cumulative PV of EVA 1673.25

PV of TV of EVA 3088.17

Total PV (MVA) 4761.43

Cap Emp 6804.49

Market Value 11565.92

Net Debt -556.25

Value of Equity 12122.17

No of Shares 18.79

Value Per Share 645

EcROCE 21.81% 21.44% 21.13% 20.83% 20.68%

r-c 5.57% 5.20% 4.89% 4.59% 4.44%

EVA 440.56 477.57 521.19 567.11 633.1


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Market return(Rm)

Risk free rate(Rf) ( 364 day - T-bill) 8.20% Date Sensex

Market return(Rm) 20% 29/12/200 3972.12

Beta of ACC 0.74 ### 3262.33

### 3377.28

Cost of Equity (Ke) [CAPM Approach] 17.18% ### 5838.96

### 6602.69

Cost of Debt (Kd) 11.06% ### 9397.93

Corporate Tax Rate 30% ### 13786.91

### 20286.99

Market Value of Equity (Closing price as on 31/12/10 - 1075.6) 20215.9 ### 9647.31

Market Value of Debt 523.77 ### 17464.81

Total Value 20739.67

CAGR 20%

Cost of Capital (WACC) 16.24%

Cost of Equity 17.18% ### 17.18% ###

Proportion of Equity 93.7% 94.6% 95.3% 96.0%

After-tax Cost of Debt 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 3.5%

Proportion of Debt 6.3% 5.4% 4.7% 4.0%

Cost of Capital 16.52% ### 16.69% ###


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###

97.9%

5.9%

2.1%

###


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Debt

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Secured Loan

11.3% NCD 200 200 200 200 200 200

8.45% NCD 0 300 300 300 300 300Term loan Bank 250 50 50 0 0 0

Total 450 550 550 500 500 500

Interest

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

11.3% NCD 22.6 22.6 22.6 0 0

8.45% NCD 25.35 25.35 25.35 25.35 25.35

Term loan Bank (10%)Assumption 0 0 0 0 0

Total 47.95 47.95 47.95 25.35 25.35


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2014 2015

0 0

300 3000

300 300


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SHARE HOLDING PATTERN ACC Ltd (Curr: Rs in Cr.

COMPANY/EQUITY/SHARE HOLDING PATTERN_NEW/6/ACC

Description as on No of Shares % of Holding

Foreign (Promoter & Group) 541000 0.29

Bodies Corporate 541000 0.29

Indian (Promoter & Group) 86191067 45.91Bodies Corporate ### 45.91

Total of Promoter 86732067 46.20

Non Promoter (Institution) 61128701 32.56

Government(Central / State) 287815 0.15

Financial Institutions / Banks ### 18.62

Foreign Institutional Investors ### 12.56

Mutual Funds / UTI 2292783 1.22

Non Promoter (Non-Institution) 39498223 21.04

Bodies Corporate 9376968 4.99Clearing Members 65497 0.03

NRIs/Foreign Individuals/Foreign Nationals 828799 0.44

Individuals holding nominal share capital in excess of Rs. 1 l 3619387 1.93

Individuals holding nominal share capital up to Rs. 1 lakh ### 13.29

Trust & Foundation 647544 0.34

Total Non Promoter 100626924 53.59

Total Promoter & Non Promoter 187358991 99.8

Custodians(Against Depository Receipts) 385965 0.21

Other Custodians 385965 0.21

Grand Total 187744956 100.00


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1 46%2 54%

3 0%

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

Foreign (Promoter & Group)

Indian (Promoter & Group)

Non Promoter (Institution)

Non Promoter (Non-Institution)

Custodians(Against Depository Receipts)

Documents

ACC Analysis by Vikram