ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES FROM BUCHAREST C. S. U. D ...doctorat.ase.ro/Media/Default/sustineri teze... · Consumption and global production of petroleum on areas during the periof

ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES FROM BUCHAREST

C. S. U. D.

DOCTORAL SCHOOL FOR BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

DOCTORAL THESIS

ABSTRACT

Dynamics of business systems in crisis conditions

Scientific coordinator:

PhD. Bob Constantin

Author:

Ionescu M. Alexandru Cosmin

Bucharest,

2016

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CONTENS OF THE ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS

I. CONTENTS OF DOCTORAL THESIS..........................................................................3

II. KEY WORDS…….……………………………………………..……………………….6

III. ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS …………………………………….…...…..6

IV.SYNTHESIS………………………………………………………………………….….8

CHAPTER I – BUSINESS SYSTEM INTO CRISIS CONDITIONS .............................8

CHAPTER II – EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT

UPON BUSINESS SYSTEMS……………………………………………………………..9

CHAPTER III COMMERCIAL POLITICS INTO CURRENT ECONOMIC

CONFIGURATION………..……………………………………………………………….9

CHAPTER IV COMMERCIAL REPORTS IN ECONOMIC

BLOCKS……….....................................................................................................................10

CHAPTER V CHANGES AND TRENDS INTO BUSINESS SYSTEMS……….……...11

CHAPTER VI CONFIGURATION AND RECONFIGURATIONS OF

COMMERCIAL POLITICS ON THE PETROLEUM

MARKET…………………………………………………………………………………....11

BIBLIOGRAPHY.…………………………………………………..……………………...13

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CONTENTS OF DOCTORAL THESIS

INTRODUCTION

The wherewithal into chossing of reserach theme

CHAPTER I – BUSINESS SYSTEM IN CRISIS CONDITIONS

1.1. The role of commercial exchanges into effort for overtaking the crisis

1.2. Stimulation of commercial exchanges, as a solution-measure for exit from crisis

1.3. Politics for development of competitiveness into crisis conditions. Measures and

regulations for stimulation of exports

1.3.1. Measures and regulations for stimulation of exports

CHAPTER II – EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT

UPON THE BUSINESS SYSTEMS

2.1. Economic-financial crisis - causes, particularities, propagations and effects

2.2. Repercussions of economic-financial crisis reflected at the level of commerical

indicators

2.3. Costs of crisis and answers of the scientific world

CHAPTER III COMMERCIAL POLITICS AND CURRENT ECONOMIC

CONFIGURATION

3.1. Commercial politics - new coordinates

3.2. Changes of objectives

3.3. Chains of purchase and theories of commerce

CHAPTER IV COMMERCIAL REPORTS IN ECONOMIC BLOCKS

4.1. Dimensions of European commercial politics

4.2. Ratio of forces between economic blocks and effects of globalization upon them

CAPITOLUL V CHANGES AND TRENDS INTO BUSINESS SYSTEM

5.1. Current protectionism , a new face of commercial politics

5.2. Evolution of commercial protectionism associated to crisis

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5.3. Mutations of Romanian external commerce with effect upon economic agents

5.3.1. Methodology for elaboration of study

5.3.2. Analysis of Romanian external commerce during the period of 1995-2014

5.3.3. Descriptive statistics and testing of indicators' normality

5.3.4. Evolutions of imports and exports of goods and services

5.3.5. Dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services

5.3.6. The weight of goods and services, totally exports and imports

5.3.7. Values indicators of GNP and external marketing

5.3.8. Indicators of exchange ratio

5.3.9. Coefficient of elasticity of the export and import from Romania

5.3.10. Analysis of interdependence of indicators - method of correlation matrixes

CHAPTER VI CONFIGURATIONS AND RECONFIGURATIONS OF COMMERCIAL

POLITICS ON THE PETROLEUM MARKET

6.1. Structure of petroleum market. Features of OPEC

6.2. Consumption and global production of petroleum on areas during the periof of 2004-

2010

6.3. Analysis of petroleum market at the level of 2014

6.4. Main current configurations on petroleum markets

6.5. Controversy concerning the price of petroleum as defining element of commercial

politics

6.5.1. Markets of marketing of petroleum - influence factor of petroleum price

6.5.2. Factors which contribute to volatility of global prices of petroleum

6.5.3. Commerce of arbitrage

6.5.4. Assymetry of transfer for prices

6.6. Main defining actors of Romanian oiler market

6.6.1.Petrom

6.6.2. Rompetrol

6.6.3.Lukoil

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6.7. Dynamic behaviour of fuel price

6.7.1.Evolution of retail prices of the gasoline and diesel in Romania

6.8. Models for assessment of gross internal prodcut related with export and import of

fuels, focused on elasticity and determination of paces which are associated directly and

indirectly

6.8.1. From elasticity to coeficient of elasticity

6.8.2.Elasticity of GNP of Romania's economy related with export/import alltogether and

effected in fuels

6.8.3. Econometric models focused on paces and elasticity of Romanian economy

CONCLUSIONS

BIBLIOGRAPHY

ABBREVIATION

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF IMAGES

APPENDIXES

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II. KEY WORDS:

CRISIS; BUSINESS SYSTEM; COMMERCIAL POLITICS; ECONOMIC BLOCKS; MARKET

OF PETROLEUM; DYNAMICS; STRUCTURE

III. ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS

Commercial politics has known profound transformations, as a result of development

of global financial crisis, with manifests at the level of micro-economy and macro-economy.

The economic crisis has induced a fluctuation of raw material prices, of final economic goods

with decisive impact upon the stability of economy and, implicitly of people buying power.

The main studies concerning the current crisis refer to complex phenomena and

triggering factors for crisis – symbiosis of factors of institutional, social, economic nature –

which emphasize the empiric pragmatism which is specific to neoclassicism and statist

activism. The scientific intercession has aimed the outlining of crisis referring ton specialty

literature. Therefore it is considered that the current crisis represents an effect of the failure of

financial markets in fulfilment of their functions for society and brings a change of paradigm

which influences the prices behaviour, the intensity of crisis being able to be determined by

reference to financial markets.

The paper also develops the concept of globalization into analysis of business

systems, as the main factor which supports and influences from structural point of view the

commercial politics. The Monetary International Fund (FMI), from exclusive quantitative

perspective, approaches globalization as a process of “growth of economic interdependencies

of countries from all over the world”, of diversification of “transactions of goods and

services”, “liberalization of international capital‟s flows”, wider access to technologic

products, with effect of entrainment at the level of commercial politics. Complementarily, the

World Bank emphasizes the qualitative character of economic growth, defining the

globalization as a process by which is facilitate the capacity of initiation by residents from

different countries of voluntarily economic transactions, relations which are based on

freedoms, capacities and capabilities.

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The paper approaches gradually the concept of commerce and commercial politics.

Initially it refers to specialty as determinant of international commercial exchanges

development.

According to modern theories of international commerce, the international exchanges

are viewed as a “request of diversities”, the accent being on eclecticism and adaptability to

needs and specific of consumer, and differences between countries concerning the costs of

production, the pace of technical innovations, the nature of marketed products, modality of

storage of capital have the role to diversify the offer of economic goods.

The scientific intercession has aimed the development of fundamental research into

field of business politics. The scientific objectives are: analyse of the impact of economic-

financial crisis upon the economic systems, identification of crisis effects, coverage area, and

also of the main costs of the crisis, especially of the repercussions on the plan of business

politics. Another specific objective has represented the analysis of commercial politics into

the context of the current commercial system, identifying of the new trends of business

system and adjustment of current commercial politics.

The originality of analysis by coefficients of elasticity concerning the macro-

aggregates of Romania‟s economy (PIB-Gross National Product, CF, FBCF- Gross

Formation of Permanent Capital, etc.) starting from the export and import of fuels generates

relatively professional models, but also with problems of validations for periods of economic

developments more calm. The specific of this research which is centered on the principle

caeteris paribus which is applied also for the factors, but also to records from databases

relativizes the credibility on medium term of the econometric models, as they seem to be seen

as being lapsable and even questionable.

The adopted scientific research can be viewed as a quantitative-deductive strategy. Even if

the theories which stand to critic process to which they are subject to as a result of deductive

research, are temporary accepted and become the subject of a perpetual critic assessment

(Blaikie, 2000). The deductive approach was attached to a quantitative research, which,

according to Punch (2005) aims rather the deductive testing of hypothesis and theories

towards the qualitative research which wants the exploring of a theme for research and

generates hypotheses of inductive manner. The used and presented data within the paper are

the most recent and came from official statistic reports, thereby allow the performance of

comparative analysis, but the impediment is that they do not facilitate the performance of an

analysis for a significant period of time, which is wider for the issue subject to research.

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IV.SYNTHESIS

The first chapter, “Business system into crisis conditions” performs the anatomy of

commercial crisis and presents the importance of process of globalization in development of

exchanges at globally level, as a reaction of request of economic goods, effect of

competitiveness of economic goods, on the one hand, and on the other hand of promotion.

Thereby, as a result of intensification of globalization processes and regional integration,

liberalization of commercial and investment regimes, it is observed a growth of international

commercial flows, with positive repercussions upon grown of GNP, employment, evolution

of scientific research and top technologies, social politics, adjustments of structural nature at

the level of economic politics, which are specific for stage of growth of economic cycle.

The second sub-chapter, “Stimulation of commercial exchanges, as a measure or solution for

exit from crisis” presents the main advantages of specialization for intensification of

commercial exchanges and the main theories with positive repercussions upon dynamics of

commercial exchanges. An emphasized element in this sub-chapter is the role which the

commercial politics of a state exercises upon the size and modality of distribution of earnings

from international commerce. Thus, in time, the world‟s countries had to choose between

applying the protectionist commercial politics and promotion of free exchange, depending on

interests of moment and politic, economic and social background. As the interdependencies

between countries had become more and more accentuated, the external commerce makes

that element of competitiveness, of efficacy of economic politics to become primary, either as

a result of growing the weighting of external commerce in GNP, either as a result of

globalization of economic goods among consumers. Thus, the participation of world‟s states

to international commerce is in direct ratio with economic potential, the level of economic

development, international competitiveness of products which are performed by independent

companies, and their strategies of business. Into current background, the reformation of

commercial politics, as a measure of supporting for resume of economic growth, will

emphasize the creative, innovative character of economic products, which is doubled by

sustainable, durable and economic character. The third sub-chapter, “Politics for development

of competitiveness into crisis conditions. Measures and regulations for stimulation of

exports” insists on stimulation of competitiveness on economy in its assembly, by adoption

of stimulation measures concerning the entrepreneurship, the growing of services role in

commerce structure, concentration of human capital, on creativity and innovation. Thus, there

are identified a series of measures and regulations for stimulation of exports: grants for

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exports, the system for industrial areas of export, financing of export, elimination of

commercial barriers, organizations for promotion of commerce, improvement of investment

climate, politics for bringing the direct foreign investments, etc.

The second chapter, “Effects of economic-financial crisis and its impact upon the

commercial systems” is made up from three sub-chapters and presents the main

confrontations of ideas regarding the current crisis. Thus, it is emphasized that current crisis

is caused by the existence of some economic dysfunctional forms – is the case of financial

international institutions which did not use the alert systems for risks of systemic nature

which are associated to financial engineerings – with ample manifestations, both into plan of

real economy, with boomerang effect at the level of markets, and on the plan of nominal

economy, with effect upon governmental politics. The effects of economic and financial

crisis upon the commerce and commercial politics are viewed under the aspect of changes

which intervened in the volume and structure of commerce by call to indicators such as,

balance of current account, balance of financial account, exports, and imports. For reduction

of crisis‟ effects and as a result of the costs, it is necessary the growth of coherence and

congruence of governmental politics, institutional reformation, from perspective of economic

politics and theoretic fundaments.

The third chapter, “Commercial Politics in current economic configuration” analyses the

modality in which measures of commercial politics are being experienced into field of

commercial and cooperation relations, both on microeconomic level, by development of a

certain climate for development of economic activity, and on macroeconomic level, by

assuring of a frame for expansion of commercial exchanges. For supporters of “theory of

bicycle” concerning the deregulation of commerce, the crisis has induced a depression of the

progress associated with commerce liberalization.

The chains of supplying had remodelled the international commerce; dispersion of production

networks has conducted to significant investments in transports and infrastructure in order to

deal with transit of goods destined to processing. The off-shore and outsourcing had affected

the social panorama bot at positive level, as a result of benefices brought to welfare –

development of workplaces in emergent countries, but also at negative level – most of salary

deviations between developed countries and the developing ones. Thus, the global chains of

supplying introduce new microeconomic dimensions which come to supplement the

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macroeconomic mechanisms of shocks transmission explaining the major effect of crisis

upon international commerce.

The global commercial process is subject to reassessment in order to project a viable system

which responds to the main current challenges which consist in promotion of an equitable

system between countries, the avoidance of protectionist practices, in other words easing the

development of external commerce and apparition of new outlets for economic goods

manufactured in conditions of competitiveness and on principles of economic sustainability.

On chapter IV, “The commercial reports in economic blocks”, it is emphasized the fact that

practiced commercial politics by the EU is a politics which is based on strict and uniform

rules, liberalization of commerce on global scale, assurance of welfare development in EU.

Also, in this chapter it is presented on theoretic level the features of regionalism and

multilateralism and the lack of a consensus concerning the desirability of a certain regime.

Concerning the EU into background of international commerce, although its detains the

highest market share (participation at the level of international production increasing during

the period of 1995-2005), its position has deteriorated once with crisis in a higher ratio than

USA, but also the advantage in comparison with at the level of goods based on intensive use

of knowledge.

Developments imposed on market and the ones from international level from the last period

had modified the structure of international business system in period of post-crisis. From

institutional perspective, the reduced progress of multilateral commercial negotiations of

Commerce Global Organizations (OMC) and difficulties to reach a consensus concerning the

Doha Development Agenda had promoted the proliferation of regional and bilateral

commercial negotiations. EU had negotiated agreements of free exchanges with USA

(Transpacific commerce and partnership of investments), Canada and Japan.

The developments induced on markets have been caused by emergent economies, even if

their dynamic of growing did not come back anymore at the level of pre-crisis of 7-8%, they

had registered a high increment of GNP towards the increment registered by advanced

economies. During the period of 2000-2012, the ratio of these economies into global

commerce had majored from 33% to 48% (WTO, 2014). At the level of emergent economies

the eclecticism is high, China being in top 3 of commercial powers from world, and other

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markets of frontier had made their presence felt at the level of international commerce:

economies from Asia, Mexico and Turkey.

Chapter V, “Changes and trends in commercial system” starts with a deep analysis of

commercial protectionism in current form and emphasizes the visible dropping of rating and

para-rating protectionism, and presents the modern forms of protectionism which attach to

technology, research and innovation, education and human capital, etc. Despite the economic

arguments in favour of free exchange and intensification of commercial exchanges, the

protectionism is still widely practiced by developed countries, which are emergent or

developing, for factors such as: employment, respectively, human capital.

In essence, the current form of protectionism is identified mainly with activity of politic

lobby, of subtle use of a gearing of manipulation or negotiation, effusion of markets in the

favour of some groupings or groups of interests. The reasons of protectionism result from

desire to protect the infantile industries, to prevent the unemployment, keep of payment

balance and of objectives of fiscal policy.

The applicative part had consisted in analysis of data concerning the evolution of Romanian

external commerce during the period of 1995-2014, being identified the interdependencies

between indicators which are subject to study, that in the end to be suggested ways of

improvement of tools of commercial politics.

Chapter VI “Configurations and reconfigurations of commercial politics on petroleum

market” has a strong applicative character, as result of structural analysis and in dynamics of

petroleum market. The empiric research upon this kind of market is based on many

econometric models which focus on paces and elasticity in order to estimate the GNP in

report with export and import of fuels at the level of Romania.

The predecessor sub-chapters of empiric analysis examine the importance of petroleum at the

level of energy market, the petroleum being considerate the most controversial non-

renewable source of energy, both as result of price variation, and for its intrinsic value.

The continuous fluctuation of petroleum price is the effect of new dimensions of petroleum

market and not of a crisis of petroleum, but rather of a connection between market of

petroleum and financial market, between politics and economic, between strategic and

geopolitics.

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The market for commercialization of petroleum is strongly developed, transparent and

presents a high degree of sophistication. Certain types of petroleum are commercialized on

seeing markets and are used as pattern, other types of petroleum being assessed having as

basis the pattern prices (the differences which take in consideration the delivery place and

quality of petroleum). The refineries can influence the price differences between different

types of petroleum as a result of purchase behaviour.

Seen on global level and in its dynamic, the evolution of petroleum price is determined

exclusively by the needs of development of economy by possibilities of earning of players on

stock exchange market on term, respectively by evolution of shares‟ price which is generated

by the degree of trust of players, on the one hand, and by capacity of manufacturing, the

value of exports and imports on global level, on the other hand. For that purpose, in

subchapter “Controversies concerning the prices of petroleum as defining element of current

commercial politics” is examined the connection between market on term and seeing prices

for barrels of petroleum, taking into consideration the institutional background in which the

price is established.

The subchapter, “The main economic agents/defining actors of Romanian market” makes in

incursion on petroleum market from Romania, analysing the main competitors, their

evolution on this market and of energetic products and possibilities of development in

consensus with current challenges concerning the future of energetic politics. Another

examined element is the price of fuels on Romanian market, being considerate one of the

smallest from entire Europe. In reality, expressed by power of buying, the price of fuels from

Romania is much bigger, varying depending on exchange value of dollar, by fiscal politics of

state (taxes and duties), but also by different politics of prices of companies which activate on

this market. But, in Romania, is often happen that prices from fuel pump to be majored only

as result of growing the international share of petroleum, which represents an agreement

between producers, within oligopoly market or an abuse of collective dominant position.

Thus, described situation is an a settlement of cartel type, but rather is classified in category

of “abuse of collective dominant position”.

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