ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, BUCHARESTDOCTORAL SCHOOL OF FINANCE AND BANKINGReal economic convergence in the CEE countriesMSc Student: Iancu Guda Supervisor: Professor Mois Altr

Real economic convergence in the CEE countries

Contents:Abstract

Review of the Literature3. Data and Methodology

4. Estimation results

5. Conclusions and remarks

6. References

ABSTRACT

This study aims to assess the economic convergence of the European countries, and especially the convergence of the 12 CEE countries that acceded European Union after 2000 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia EU members starting with 2004, Bulgaria and Romania EU members starting with 2007 ).

Convergence among the group is studied, as well as their convergence with the EU 15. Time series, panel data and SVAR models are used to assess the economic growth, approximate the period of real convergence of Romania to the EU, as well as to estimate the - and -convergence , and the main shortcomings of the last indicator.

The objectives of the present study are :

To know whether the selected 12 EU countries are converging in absolute beta sense independently and jointly

To test for conditional convergence across countries

To measure the speed of absolute and conditional convergence to assess the required time to fill the gap in the economic development

To study the underling factors that support and accelerate real convergence.

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Under the convergence hypothesis, countries starting with a low per capita income should have a higher growth rate. Thus, an inverse relationship between output growth and initial output is interpreted as evidence in favor of the convergence hypothesis.

The theoretical literature on economic growth has gone through several phases, and the answers to the above questions depend on the specification of the respective growth model :

neoclassical (exogenous) growth model (Solow-Swan 1956) - the economy converges towards a steady state due to diminishing returns to investment in physical capital - Assuming a constant population, the long-run growth rate is solely determined by the rate of technological change, which is assumed to be exogenous. - economic policy changes will only have a temporary effect on economic activity - convergence of per capita output across countries with a similar productivity level, savings rate, depreciation rate, productivity growth and population growth (*) Endogenous growth : - Determine the long-run growth rate within the model ( endogenous growth models ) -Incorporation of R&D theories and imperfect competition ( Romer 1987,1990 ), Grossman and Helpman ( 1993 ) -In these new framework the long term growth rate depends on governmental action, such as taxation, maintenance of law and order, provisions and infrastructure services, protection of intellectual property rights, regulation of international trade -The new research also includes models of the diffusion of technology

(*)Viewed in the same simple way, the catch-up process would be self-limiting because as a follower catches up, the possibility of making large leaps becomes smaller and smaller (Abramovitz, MOSES, (1986))

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Neoclassical theory of economic growth Models of exogenous growth

Y = F(K,L) production function is neoclassical if the following three properties are satisfied :

1. ; and ;

F(K,L) = F(K,L) for all > 0

Inada Conditions : and

Solow and Swan Model (1956)

Y = F(K,L) = L*F(K/L,1) = L*f(k) => y=f(k)

Differential Equation of the Solow-Swan model :

Exogenous variable : population growth rate, rate of technological progressConstant variables : savings rate, capital depreciation rate

REVIEW OF THE LITERATUREThe above case covers the so-called conditional convergence, that is the alternative implying that all economies with differences in the initial stock of capital per capita have the same saving rates (s), similar technologies (the same parameters A and ), as well as the same population (labour) growth rates (n). Unless such requirements are met, the equilibrium points of the rich countries differ from those of the poor countries, and the convergence cannot take place.

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

New methodological approaches to convergence and its determinants

The new theory is focused in finding out the real causes and mechanisms of the long-term disparities (through cross-section analysis or long time series), by correlating the growth rate of production and income per capita at national or/and regional level with several economic, social and political variables that could be either the engine or the brake of economic growth.

Usually, conditioning variables such as education attainment, government spending, political instability, and the growth rate of the terms of trade are included in such an output regression equation to control for effects of other growth factors (Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1995).

There are authors who conducted empiric research on convergence using the modified and augmented dynamic neoclassical model that involved the human capital and technological progress besides the physical capital. For example, Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992), and Islam (1995) revealed, by the new variants of models, that the economies with an initially low level of the income tended to increase faster than those with initially high level of the income after they had introduced in the model the saving rate and the population growth rate, as control variables.

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

New econometric testing of the new calculation tools and models, such as :

the and indicators (Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1991)the augmentent dynamic neoclassical model : Mankiw, Romer, Weil, 1992 ( with human and fix capital ) // Islam, 1995 // Bassanini, Scarpetta, 2001). Conclude convergence proof after they had introduced in the model the saving rate and the population growth rate, as control variables.Barro, Sala-i-Martin, Blanchard and Hall (1991) considered variables like capital mobility, labour migrationFischer Stanley, Ratna Sahay and Carlos Vegh. 1998, growth regression in panel data with variables like GDP, inflation, enrolment, investments, government spending ( also Robert J. Barro 1991) Ross Levine and David Renelt 1992 Extreme bound analyses to test the robustness, include variables like trade and investmentsSergio Rebelo 1997 determinants of economic growth ; Easterly, W., Rebelo, S., 1993 fiscal policy influence over growth perspectiveRobert E. Hall and Charles I. Jones regression the study the differences of GDP levels among countriesthe stochastic convergence model (Lee Kevin, M Hashem Pesaran, Ron Smith ; 1997)Blanchard, O.J., Perotti, R., 2002. VAR models testing governments spending and taxation influence over economic growthBart Verspagen 1994 and Ben David : trend calculation for series of per capita income relative to group average

REVIEW OF THE LITERATUREThe counter-reaction literature

The appropriateness of the cross-country regression approach is challenged by, for example, Quah (1993), Bernard and Durlauf (1996), and Evans (1997)

Quah (1993) shows that a negative correlation between output growth and initial output is consistent with a stable variance in cross-country output. Durlauf, 1996; Quah, 1996 time series models to negate convergence and promote the presence ofconvergence clubs and the polarisation of the countries in rich and poor ones. They argue that the initial-output regression approach tends to reject the null hypothesis of no convergence too often in the presence of multiple output equilibriumBernard and Durlauf (1995), using the unit root and cointegration techniques, detect the presence of multiple integrated processes driving the output data of the OECD countriesUsing a panel unit root test, Evans (1998) shows that convergence occurs within a group of developed countries and different growth patterns are observed among countries with different literacy rates

DATA AND METHODOLOGY

I Time series I.1 Verspagen (1994)

This test assumes the following relation between per capita income relative to the group average in different periods t and t - 1.

where Yt is defined as (Q/P)/(Q/CP), and Q denotes RGDP, P denotes population (in thousands), and indicates the sum in some group of countries

The assumed relationship allows for : converging (if < l)diverging (if > l)stable (if = 1) differences in per capita income

Data are comprised from Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.3, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, August 2009 for the 12 CEE countries and UE15 average values

DATA AND METHODOLOGYIn order to estimate the value of for different periods of time, the next steps are followed:For each case (defined as a combination of countries, years, and reference group), a pooled cross-country time series dataset is set up. In turn, is estimated by OLS for the subset for periods t - 2 to t + 2. This means that the number of observations in each OLS estimate is five times the number of countries in the analysis. The resulting estimate of is attributed to t, and plotted in a graph together with the estimates for other periods. The estimated coefficient plus/minus two times the estimated standard error is also plotted, so that a (reasonably wide) confidence interval is established. Whenever this confidence interval is completely below (above) unity, convergence (divergence) is said to be observed. Whenever the confidence interval embraces the unit line, no particular trend is found.

The objectives are:

To test for convergence differences in per capita income within the 12 CEE countries group to this purpose the series of RGDP/cap ( Real GDP per capita in 2000 values as base year) are comprised with annual frequency between 1993-2007. The series are divided in subset of periods t - 2 to t + 2. Hence, we obtain a final 11 observation for each country. The pooled data comprises 60 observations (12 cross country and 5 time series ) of country individual RGDP/cap difference from groups average. To test for convergence differences in per capita income between the CEE countries and UE15 average value. The time series is extended to 1970-2007 range, thus including 34 annual observations ( after extracting subsets of 5 years each ). Due to data limitation, only 6 CEE countries are included ( Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania ). Hence, the polled data comprises 30 observations ( 6 cross section and 5 time series ) of country individual RGDP/cap difference from UE15 average.

DATA AND METHODOLOGYI.2 . Convergence tests for pairs of countries ( methodology used in M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007)

A time-series based approach to investigate output convergence has been proposed by Bernard and Durlauf (1996) and Quah (1992). According to Bernard and Durlauf (1996), there is output convergence between two countries if the long-run forecasts of their real per capita outputs are the same. If pair-wise convergence holds for all the pairs of countries under consideration, then there is convergence of all the countries simultaneously.

Specifically, let Yi,t be the (logarithm of the) country is real per capita output at time t and Y*,t is the output variable of the benchmark country. The no-convergence hypothesis is stated as :H0 : = I(1), i = 1,,N

World Table Version 6.3, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, August 2009 for the 12 CEE countries and UE15 average values. Values for annual Real GDP /capita (in 2000 values as base year) are found for the following series:

1970-2007 for Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania and UE151987-2007 for Slovak Republic1990-2007 for Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovenia 1993-2007 for Lithuania and LatviaIn testing for: Convergence within the 12 CEE countries group, ADF stationary test are applied for N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of log per-capita output gaps across N economies. Convergence between the 12 CEE countries and UE15 average real GDP/capita, stationary is tested for 12 output pairs differentials.

DATA AND METHODOLOGYII. Panel Data ( methodology also used in Islam 1995 // Crespo-Cuaresma J, Dimitz MA, Ritzberger-Grunwald 2002 // Matkowski Z, Prochniak M 2004 // Rajasalu Teet 2003 )

Pooled data LSDV (Least Square Dummy Variable ) fixed effects for cross and time series ( intercept / slope variation)ECM ( Error Components Model ) or Random Effects

Variables : real GDP per capita growth rate (difference of consecutive log values ) LN of Real GDP per capita Trade ( export + import ) % of GDP Gross Capital Formation % of GDPTotal Government Expenditure % of GDPTotal Government Income % of GDP Saving rate % of GDP Enrollment ( secondary + tertiary ISCED Levels )

Data series for 12 EU members acceded after 2000 ( Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia EU members starting with 2004, Bulgaria and Romania EU members starting with 2007 ), period 1995-2009. Source : Eurostat

Observations : 12 Countries, 15 years ( 1995 2009 ), 5 time intervals ( 3 years each ) = 60 panel data observations (12 Cross countries and 5 interval time series )

DATA AND METHODOLOGY

Argumentation:

Why not include 1990-1994 data ? The beginning of the transition of the former socialist countries caused a massive fall of output which rivaled, and in several countries even surpassed, the dimension of the United States recession during the Great Depression. After a few years, the fall in output stopped, and a few countries, mostly Central and Eastern European ones (CEE), started a process of economic growth. The success of reforms and the sustained economic growth spurred a whole line of research on the determinants of economic growth and on the long run economic growth perspectives of the CEE countries.

Why 3 years for each period ? The standard approach for reducing the effects of structural changes and business cycles, is to divide the series and average data on 5 years ( or even 10 if longer data available ) for each interval. Due to data limitation ( total range of data compiled 15 years ), a 5 years interval would have reduced the degree of freedom

DATA AND METHODOLOGY

II. Panel Data

The above equations are estimated to test for :

Absolute Convergence

Absolute convergence speed

The fixed effects

LSDV

Random effects

DATA AND METHODOLOGYIII. Structural VAR ( methodology used in Sarah M. Lein, Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, Carolin Nerlich, 2008)

Variables : real GDP per capita growth rate (difference of consecutive log values ) Trade ( export + import ) % of GDP Gross Capital Formation % of GDP empirically assess their relevance using a Structural VAR method for Lithuania and Romania in trying to find out the real causes and mechanisms of the long-term disparities

Data is compiled from :

EUROSTAT , with quarterly frequency between 1995 Q1 : 2009 Q4, comprising 60 observations for each variable for LithuaniaNations Institute of Statistics ( Romanias official webpage) with quarterly frequency between 2000 Q1 : 2009 Q4, comprising 40 observation for each variable for Romania.

Observation: All series are seasonally adjusted using the Census X12 seasonal adjustment procedures

ESTIMATION RESULTSScatter Plot Evidence: Romania and Bulgaria, although having the lowest Real GDP per capita in the group for the starting year, fail to converge in terms of absolute convergence ( as in Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1991)Average growth rate for Romania and Bulgaria in 1995-2009 bellow groups averageBetter convergence results ( adjusted R squared, F statistic ) for the group when excluding Romania and Bulgaria (Panel Data)

Country1995 Real GDP per capita, EURReal Per Capita Average Growth Rate (1995:2009)Bulgaria 1,700.00 3.41%Czech Republic 5,500.00 2.62%Estonia 3,100.00 5.76%Cyprus 12,900.00 1.84%Latvia 2,600.00 5.65%Lithuania 2,700.00 5.54%Hungary 4,100.00 3.05%Malta 10,700.00 0.53%Poland 3,700.00 4.59%Romania 1,939.48 3.05%Slovenia 8,700.00 3.31%Slovakia 3,500.00 4.35%

Chart3

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0.0330753868

0.043490798

AVERAGE REAL GROWTH RATE - INITIAL GDP

AVERAGE REAL GROWTH RATE - INITIAL GDP

ALL

BulgariaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199517007.4383835391.00%38.00%37.10%10.90%87.07%15.70%

199615007.43838353105.40%37.00%38.00%8.45%87.33%8.10%-12.52%

199715007.43838353112.00%39.00%39.00%15.46%88.77%9.90%0.00%

199815007.4383835393.90%40.60%39.30%16.64%88.77%16.90%0.00%

199916007.4383835394.90%42.00%41.80%13.09%88.55%17.90%6.45%

200017007.43838353116.80%42.20%42.60%12.73%89.06%18.30%6.06%

200118007.43838353118.70%40.90%40.30%14.56%90.08%20.70%5.72%

200219007.43838353111.40%39.50%40.30%16.56%91.02%19.80%5.41%

200320007.43838353117.30%40.00%40.30%15.60%91.23%21.70%5.13%

200422007.43838353125.50%41.30%39.70%17.27%92.00%23.10%9.53%

200523007.43838353136.60%41.20%39.30%16.47%91.43%28.00%4.45%

200625007.43838353147.80%39.50%36.50%13.12%90.94%31.70%8.34%

200726007.43838353148.90%41.50%41.50%14.31%90.61%36.80%3.92%

200828007.43838353143.80%39.10%37.30%15.44%90.29%38.30%7.41%

200926607.43838353107.70%36.90%40.70%17.90%89.97%26.20%-5.13%

Czech RepublicREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199555008.6125033712105.80%41.00%54.50%28.97%72.58%32.60%

199658008.6125033712103.70%39.30%42.60%27.03%72.59%33.70%5.31%

199757008.6125033712109.40%39.40%43.20%24.35%71.03%30.50%-1.74%

199857008.6125033712109.50%38.20%43.20%26.32%71.03%28.40%0.00%

199958008.6125033712112.10%38.60%42.30%24.61%73.17%27.10%1.74%

200060008.6125033712129.80%38.10%41.80%24.78%75.45%29.50%3.39%

200162008.6125033712133.30%38.70%44.40%27.01%80.03%29.50%3.28%

200263008.6125033712122.50%39.50%46.30%26.48%79.09%28.60%1.60%

200365008.6125033712125.90%40.70%47.30%24.89%80.98%27.20%3.13%

200468008.6125033712140.20%42.20%45.10%27.58%79.82%27.50%4.51%

200572008.6125033712141.20%41.40%45.00%28.85%80.97%25.70%5.72%

200677008.6125033712149.40%41.10%43.70%30.21%81.76%26.80%6.71%

200781008.6125033712155.20%41.80%42.50%31.97%82.24%27.00%5.06%

200882008.6125033712149.60%40.20%42.90%28.87%82.72%25.30%1.23%

20097855.68.6125033712133.30%40.30%46.10%26.25%83.21%21.50%-4.29%

EstoniaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199531008.0391573905143.80%42.40%41.30%21.42%77.99%28.20%

199633008.0391573905134.80%39.10%39.50%20.72%78.10%28.10%6.25%

199737008.0391573905154.30%39.60%37.40%20.27%76.16%30.90%11.44%

199840008.0391573905159.20%38.50%39.20%21.73%76.16%31.00%7.80%

199941008.0391573905145.70%36.70%40.10%20.72%73.59%25.30%2.47%

200045008.0391573905172.80%35.90%36.10%23.15%69.68%28.40%9.31%

200148008.0391573905162.10%34.70%34.80%25.44%67.41%27.90%6.45%

200253008.0391573905149.20%36.00%35.80%24.93%67.93%32.30%9.91%

200357008.0391573905145.90%36.50%34.80%25.66%68.05%33.10%7.28%

200461008.0391573905153.20%35.60%34.00%26.01%69.05%33.10%6.78%

200567008.0391573905161.90%35.20%33.60%27.29%69.72%33.80%9.38%

200674008.0391573905172.00%36.50%34.00%27.88%71.15%38.70%9.94%

200779008.0391573905156.90%37.40%34.80%27.85%72.29%40.20%6.54%

200876008.0391573905155.40%37.10%39.90%24.67%73.47%29.70%-3.87%

200966008.0391573905135.80%43.60%45.40%23.34%74.70%19.40%-14.11%

CyprusREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

1995129009.4649825903100.10%32.30%33.10%20.05%89.11%21.90%

1996129009.4649825903104.50%31.90%35.10%16.88%87.39%21.60%0.00%

1997130009.4649825903105.40%31.10%36.10%15.06%90.01%19.40%0.77%

1998135009.4649825903100.50%32.60%36.70%24.74%90.01%19.20%3.77%

1999140009.4649825903101.80%32.50%36.80%16.27%91.31%17.00%3.64%

2000145009.4649825903109.90%34.70%37.00%14.47%90.71%18.30%3.51%

2001149009.4649825903109.90%35.90%38.20%13.20%89.44%16.40%2.72%

2002151009.4649825903103.10%35.80%40.20%15.01%90.45%18.80%1.33%

2003151009.464982590395.20%38.50%45.00%15.12%90.74%17.40%0.00%

2004154009.464982590398.00%38.70%42.80%14.54%90.41%20.20%1.97%

2005156009.464982590399.20%41.20%43.60%13.76%89.78%19.90%1.29%

2006159009.464982590399.80%42.20%43.40%13.52%90.01%20.80%1.90%

2007165009.4649825903102.10%45.50%42.20%10.80%88.86%22.40%3.70%

2008169009.4649825903101.00%43.50%42.60%6.79%87.73%24.10%2.40%

200916612.79.464982590384.60%40.30%46.40%9.16%86.65%17.20%-1.71%

LatviaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199526007.86326672486.20%37.00%38.60%14.65%79.67%15.00%

199628007.86326672499.60%36.50%36.90%13.17%79.80%18.10%7.41%

199730007.86326672499.80%37.50%36.30%15.10%77.76%20.60%6.90%

199832007.863266724105.20%40.20%40.20%15.27%77.76%24.80%6.45%

199933007.86326672490.00%37.90%41.80%14.53%76.88%23.40%3.08%

200036007.86326672490.30%34.60%37.30%18.93%73.74%23.70%8.70%

200139007.86326672492.70%32.50%34.60%19.06%70.88%26.60%8.00%

200242007.86326672491.50%33.40%35.60%20.03%67.86%26.70%7.41%

200345007.86326672496.70%33.20%34.80%20.57%67.52%28.80%6.90%

200449007.863266724103.60%34.70%35.80%20.19%69.11%33.00%8.52%

200555007.863266724110.00%35.10%35.60%21.91%71.43%34.40%11.55%

200662007.863266724111.20%37.70%38.10%17.19%72.18%39.70%11.98%

200768007.863266724104.60%35.40%35.70%17.88%73.93%40.40%9.24%

200865007.86326672496.50%34.40%38.60%18.53%75.72%31.50%-4.51%

200954007.86326672485.30%34.00%42.90%27.63%77.55%19.00%-18.54%

LithuaniaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199527007.901007052105.60%32.90%34.40%13.51%76.71%22.60%

199629007.901007052109.30%33.10%36.40%12.37%76.87%21.00%7.15%

199731007.901007052113.30%37.90%49.60%15.52%74.81%24.50%6.67%

199834007.901007052101.60%37.10%40.10%13.81%74.81%24.30%9.24%

199934007.90100705287.40%37.10%39.90%11.53%71.81%21.30%0.00%

200035007.90100705295.70%35.90%39.10%12.99%61.82%18.90%2.90%

200138007.901007052105.10%33.20%36.80%14.57%59.73%19.30%8.22%

200241007.901007052111.10%32.90%34.70%15.56%60.15%20.70%7.60%

200345007.901007052108.20%31.90%33.20%15.11%60.98%21.90%9.31%

200449007.901007052111.20%31.80%33.30%15.20%62.04%22.70%8.52%

200553007.901007052122.10%32.80%33.30%16.81%62.26%23.90%7.85%

200657007.901007052128.40%33.10%33.60%15.96%63.08%26.30%7.28%

200763007.901007052121.50%33.80%34.80%15.33%63.96%30.90%10.01%

200865007.901007052131.90%34.20%37.40%14.67%64.85%27.00%3.13%

200956007.901007052108.70%34.10%43.00%14.65%65.76%11.00%-14.90%

HungaryREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199541008.318742252789.60%46.90%55.60%19.17%76.01%22.10%

199641008.318742252795.80%46.30%50.60%22.36%75.98%25.60%0.00%

199743008.3187422527107.90%43.70%49.20%22.97%74.49%26.80%4.76%

199846008.3187422527122.60%43.00%50.40%23.15%74.49%29.40%6.74%

199948008.3187422527129.40%43.30%48.40%20.53%74.39%28.00%4.26%

200050008.3187422527149.80%43.80%46.90%21.75%74.68%29.40%4.08%

200152008.3187422527143.20%43.20%47.30%21.31%75.21%26.80%3.92%

200255008.3187422527127.60%42.30%51.20%18.81%75.20%25.60%5.61%

200357008.3187422527126.10%42.20%49.40%16.27%77.10%24.60%3.57%

200460008.3187422527129.10%42.30%48.70%17.26%77.14%26.40%5.13%

200563008.3187422527133.80%42.20%50.10%15.79%77.58%23.90%4.88%

200665008.3187422527155.10%42.60%52.00%16.47%77.73%24.00%3.13%

200766008.3187422527159.40%44.80%49.80%17.15%77.86%23.50%1.53%

200866008.3187422527163.30%45.40%49.20%16.53%77.98%23.40%0.00%

200962008.3187422527148.80%45.80%49.80%19.21%78.11%18.50%-6.25%

MaltaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

1995107009.2779990204179.40%35.50%39.70%16.43%59.02%29.60%

1996108009.2779990204167.90%34.60%42.60%13.23%59.21%26.30%0.93%

1997107009.2779990204160.50%35.30%42.90%13.76%57.41%21.70%-0.93%

1998107009.2779990204163.20%33.10%43.00%13.71%57.41%19.20%0.00%

1999108009.2779990204171.10%35.30%43.00%12.95%55.79%18.20%0.93%

2000108009.2779990204194.80%34.80%41.00%15.59%62.54%26.20%0.00%

2001106009.2779990204168.40%36.60%43.10%12.92%59.83%17.60%-1.87%

2002108009.2779990204166.40%37.70%43.20%16.66%59.93%14.30%1.87%

2003107009.2779990204163.30%37.90%47.80%14.79%64.87%16.50%-0.93%

2004107009.2779990204161.90%40.80%45.50%13.05%57.62%16.90%0.00%

2005110009.2779990204160.00%42.00%44.80%15.13%61.24%20.50%2.77%

2006113009.2779990204179.20%41.20%43.70%17.31%62.57%22.30%2.69%

2007116009.2779990204181.40%40.30%42.40%19.89%60.42%21.90%2.62%

2008118009.2779990204164.80%40.30%44.80%15.22%58.43%18.20%1.71%

2009115009.2779990204142.60%40.50%44.30%14.19%56.58%11.60%-2.58%

PolandREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199537008.216088098644.20%43.30%47.70%20.12%82.92%18.70%

199640008.216088098646.00%46.10%51.00%19.84%82.83%20.90%7.80%

199742008.216088098650.70%41.80%46.40%20.05%81.34%23.40%4.88%

199845008.216088098656.80%40.10%44.30%21.23%81.34%25.10%6.90%

199947008.216088098654.30%40.40%42.70%20.17%82.10%25.30%4.35%

200049008.216088098660.60%38.10%41.10%19.46%82.83%24.80%4.17%

200149008.216088098657.80%38.50%43.80%18.38%83.72%20.80%0.00%

200250008.216088098660.70%39.30%44.30%16.48%84.31%18.60%2.02%

200352008.216088098669.30%38.50%44.70%17.03%84.40%18.70%3.92%

200455008.216088098677.30%37.20%42.60%15.94%83.87%20.10%5.61%

200557008.216088098674.90%39.40%43.40%18.06%84.71%19.30%3.57%

200660008.216088098682.60%40.20%43.90%18.01%84.48%21.10%5.13%

200764008.216088098684.40%40.30%42.20%19.35%84.27%24.40%6.45%

200868008.216088098684.00%39.60%43.30%18.75%83.56%23.70%6.06%

20096915.68.216088098677.70%37.40%44.50%18.67%82.85%20.20%1.69%

RomaniaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

19951939.47961135717.570174974538.00%33.80%35.90%10.90%77.76%22.95%

19962015.11931627.570174974542.00%30.90%34.70%9.45%77.66%21.17%3.83%

19971899.26427.570174974546.00%30.50%34.90%11.53%76.32%18.17%-5.92%

19981812.2757.570174974553.20%32.00%35.20%10.62%76.32%17.70%-4.69%

199917757.570174974560.20%34.80%39.20%14.63%76.06%15.20%-2.08%

200018007.570174974570.90%33.80%38.50%16.09%75.77%19.40%1.40%

200119007.570174974573.80%32.50%36.00%17.99%77.66%22.20%5.41%

200221007.570174974576.40%33.00%35.00%21.65%78.33%22.00%10.01%

200322007.570174974577.10%32.00%33.50%22.45%80.27%22.00%4.65%

200424007.570174974580.60%32.30%33.50%21.79%80.65%23.70%8.70%

200525007.570174974576.30%32.30%33.50%15.95%81.02%23.30%4.08%

200627007.570174974576.60%33.10%35.30%18.47%80.42%26.50%7.70%

200729007.570174974572.50%33.50%36.00%20.17%78.97%31.00%7.15%

20083111.77.570174974573.90%32.10%37.60%21.61%77.55%31.30%7.05%

20092890.76937.570174974568.40%32.10%40.40%24.25%76.16%25.10%-7.36%

SloveniaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199587009.0710783046101.70%44.30%52.60%22.97%90.74%23.70%

199690009.0710783046101.40%43.30%44.50%23.21%90.97%23.30%3.39%

199795009.0710783046104.20%42.50%44.80%24.23%92.83%24.60%5.41%

199898009.0710783046104.30%43.30%45.70%24.64%92.83%25.70%3.11%

1999104009.071078304699.40%43.40%46.50%24.07%92.54%27.80%5.94%

2000108009.0710783046111.30%43.00%46.70%24.05%89.19%27.30%3.77%

2001111009.0710783046111.80%43.60%47.60%24.37%86.38%24.80%2.74%

2002115009.0710783046109.30%43.90%46.30%24.66%85.80%23.80%3.54%

2003118009.0710783046108.20%43.70%46.40%24.31%85.65%25.20%2.58%

2004123009.0710783046117.30%43.60%45.80%24.82%85.85%27.40%4.15%

2005128009.0710783046124.60%43.80%45.20%25.47%86.52%27.20%3.98%

2006135009.0710783046133.50%43.20%44.50%26.54%86.87%28.90%5.32%

2007144009.0710783046140.80%42.40%42.40%27.25%86.95%31.70%6.45%

2008149009.0710783046138.40%42.60%44.30%26.06%87.04%32.20%3.41%

2009136009.0710783046116.30%44.40%49.90%22.95%87.15%23.50%-9.13%

SlovakiaREAL GDP/capitaLN GDP 95EXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%GDP GROWTH

199535008.1605182475113.30%45.20%48.60%26.82%85.25%24.40%

199637008.1605182475117.40%43.80%53.70%24.60%85.34%34.10%5.56%

199739008.1605182475122.40%42.60%49.00%25.14%83.30%34.30%5.26%

199840008.1605182475129.20%40.50%45.80%24.20%83.30%33.60%2.53%

199940008.1605182475126.80%40.70%48.10%23.82%82.89%27.80%0.00%

200041008.1605182475143.50%39.90%52.20%23.50%82.98%26.00%2.47%

200142008.1605182475153.60%38.00%44.50%22.51%83.98%29.60%2.41%

200244008.1605182475149.60%36.90%45.10%21.68%85.33%29.10%4.65%

200346008.1605182475153.60%37.40%40.20%18.33%85.68%24.60%4.45%

200449008.1605182475151.90%35.30%37.70%19.76%87.47%26.40%6.32%

200552008.1605182475157.20%35.20%38.00%20.38%86.37%28.90%5.94%

200656008.1605182475172.80%33.50%36.90%19.77%86.06%28.00%7.41%

200762008.1605182475174.50%32.50%34.40%22.68%86.37%27.80%10.18%

200866008.1605182475168.30%32.50%34.80%21.32%86.68%28.10%6.25%

200963008.1605182475140.50%34.00%40.80%16.99%87.00%20.60%-4.65%

SCATTER

BulgariaREAL GDP/capitaCountry1995 Real GDP per capita, EURAconvergence speed last sheet

19951,700.00Bulgaria1,700.0010%Bulgaria2.57%

19961,500.00Czech Republic5,500.0010%Czech Republic5.23%

19971,500.00Estonia3,100.0014%Estonia11.85%

19981,500.00Cyprus12,900.009%Cyprus4.85%

19991,600.00Latvia2,600.0014%Latvia9.39%

20001,700.00Lithuania2,700.0014%Lithuania9.72%

20011,800.00Hungary4,100.0010%Hungary5.31%

20021,900.00Malta10,700.007%Malta-5.32%

20032,000.00Poland3,700.0012%Poland10.21%

20042,200.00Romania1,939.4810%Romania2.34%

20052,300.00Slovenia8,700.0010%Slovenia13.09%

20062,500.00Slovakia3,500.0012%Slovakia8.66%

20072,600.00

20082,800.00

20092,660.000.1043137255

Czech RepublicREAL GDP/capita

19955,500.00

19965,800.00

19975,700.00

19985,700.00

19995,800.00

20006,000.00

20016,200.00

20026,300.00

20036,500.00

20046,800.00

20057,200.00

20067,700.00

20078,100.00

20088,200.00

20097,855.600.0952193939

EstoniaREAL GDP/capita

19953,100.00

19963,300.00

19973,700.00

19984,000.00

19994,100.00

20004,500.00

20014,800.00

20025,300.00

20035,700.00

20046,100.00

20056,700.00

20067,400.00

20077,900.00

20087,600.00

20096,600.000.1419354839

CyprusREAL GDP/capita

199512,900.00

199612,900.00

199713,000.00

199813,500.00

199914,000.00

200014,500.00

200114,900.00

200215,100.00

200315,100.00

200415,400.00

200515,600.00

200615,900.00

200716,500.00

200816,900.00

200916,612.700.0858537468

LatviaREAL GDP/capita

19952,600.00

19962,800.00

19973,000.00

19983,200.00

19993,300.00

20003,600.00

20013,900.00

20024,200.00

20034,500.00

20044,900.00

20055,500.00

20066,200.00

20076,800.00

20086,500.00

20095,400.000.1384615385

LithuaniaREAL GDP/capita

19952,700.00

19962,900.00

19973,100.00

19983,400.00

19993,400.00

20003,500.00

20013,800.00

20024,100.00

20034,500.00

20044,900.00

20055,300.00

20065,700.00

20076,300.00

20086,500.00

20095,600.000.1382716049

HungaryREAL GDP/capita

19954,100.00

19964,100.00

19974,300.00

19984,600.00

19994,800.00

20005,000.00

20015,200.00

20025,500.00

20035,700.00

20046,000.00

20056,300.00

20066,500.00

20076,600.00

20086,600.00

20096,200.000.10

MaltaREAL GDP/capita

199510,700.00

199610,800.00

199710,700.00

199810,700.00

199910,800.00

200010,800.00

200110,600.00

200210,800.00

200310,700.00

200410,700.00

200511,000.00

200611,300.00

200711,600.00

200811,800.00

200911,500.000.0716510903

PolandREAL GDP/capita

19953,700.00

19964,000.00

19974,200.00

19984,500.00

19994,700.00

20004,900.00

20014,900.00

20025,000.00

20035,200.00

20045,500.00

20055,700.00

20066,000.00

20076,400.00

20086,800.00

20096,915.600.1246054054

RomaniaREAL GDP/capita

19951,939.48

19962,015.12

19971,899.26

19981,812.28

19991,775.00

20001,800.00

20011,900.00

20022,100.00

20032,200.00

20042,400.00

20052,500.00

20062,700.00

20072,900.00

20083,111.70

20092,890.770.0993658052

SloveniaREAL GDP/capita

19958,700.00

19969,000.00

19979,500.00

19989,800.00

199910,400.00

200010,800.00

200111,100.00

200211,500.00

200311,800.00

200412,300.00

200512,800.00

200613,500.00

200714,400.00

200814,900.00

200913,600.000.1042145594

SlovakiaREAL GDP/capita

19953,500.00

19963,700.00

19973,900.00

19984,000.00

19994,000.00

20004,100.00

20014,200.00

20024,400.00

20034,600.00

20044,900.00

20055,200.00

20065,600.00

20076,200.00

20086,600.00

20096,300.000.12

SCATTER

AVERAGE REAL GROWTH RATE - INITIAL GDP

SCATTER_2

BulgariaREAL GDP/capitaCountry1995 Real GDP per capita, EURReal Per Capita Average Growth Rate (1995:2009)convergence speed last sheet

19951,700.00Bulgaria1,700.003.41%Bulgaria2.57%

19961,500.000.88Czech Republic5,500.002.62%Czech Republic5.23%

19971,500.001.00Estonia3,100.005.76%Estonia11.85%

19981,500.001.00Cyprus12,900.001.84%Cyprus4.85%

19991,600.001.07Latvia2,600.005.65%Latvia9.39%

20001,700.001.06Lithuania2,700.005.54%Lithuania9.72%

20011,800.001.06Hungary4,100.003.05%Hungary5.31%

20021,900.001.06Malta10,700.000.53%Malta-5.32%

20032,000.001.05Poland3,700.004.59%Poland10.21%

20042,200.001.10Romania1,939.483.05%Romania2.34%

20052,300.001.05Slovenia8,700.003.31%Slovenia13.09%

20062,500.001.09Slovakia3,500.004.35%Slovakia8.66%

20072,600.001.04

20082,800.001.08

20092,660.000.95

AVERAGE0.03

Czech RepublicREAL GDP/capita

19955,500.00

19965,800.001.05

19975,700.000.98

19985,700.001.00

19995,800.001.02

20006,000.001.03

20016,200.001.03

20026,300.001.02

20036,500.001.03

20046,800.001.05

20057,200.001.06

20067,700.001.07

20078,100.001.05

20088,200.001.01

20097,855.600.96

AVERAGE0.03

EstoniaREAL GDP/capita

19953,100.00

19963,300.001.06

19973,700.001.12

19984,000.001.08

19994,100.001.03

20004,500.001.10

20014,800.001.07

20025,300.001.10

20035,700.001.08

20046,100.001.07

20056,700.001.10

20067,400.001.10

20077,900.001.07

20087,600.000.96

20096,600.000.87

AVERAGE0.06

CyprusREAL GDP/capita

199512,900.00

199612,900.001.00

199713,000.001.01

199813,500.001.04

199914,000.001.04

200014,500.001.04

200114,900.001.03

200215,100.001.01

200315,100.001.00

200415,400.001.02

200515,600.001.01

200615,900.001.02

200716,500.001.04

200816,900.001.02

200916,612.700.98

AVERAGE0.02

LatviaREAL GDP/capita

19952,600.00

19962,800.001.08

19973,000.001.07

19983,200.001.07

19993,300.001.03

20003,600.001.09

20013,900.001.08

20024,200.001.08

20034,500.001.07

20044,900.001.09

20055,500.001.12

20066,200.001.13

20076,800.001.10

20086,500.000.96

20095,400.000.83

AVERAGE0.06

LithuaniaREAL GDP/capita

19952,700.00

19962,900.001.07

19973,100.001.07

19983,400.001.10

19993,400.001.00

20003,500.001.03

20013,800.001.09

20024,100.001.08

20034,500.001.10

20044,900.001.09

20055,300.001.08

20065,700.001.08

20076,300.001.11

20086,500.001.03

20095,600.000.86

AVERAGE0.06

HungaryREAL GDP/capita

19954,100.00

19964,100.001.00

19974,300.001.05

19984,600.001.07

19994,800.001.04

20005,000.001.04

20015,200.001.04

20025,500.001.06

20035,700.001.04

20046,000.001.05

20056,300.001.05

20066,500.001.03

20076,600.001.02

20086,600.001.00

20096,200.000.94

AVERAGE0.03

MaltaREAL GDP/capita

199510,700.00

199610,800.001.01

199710,700.000.99

199810,700.001.00

199910,800.001.01

200010,800.001.00

200110,600.000.98

200210,800.001.02

200310,700.000.99

200410,700.001.00

200511,000.001.03

200611,300.001.03

200711,600.001.03

200811,800.001.02

200911,500.000.97

AVERAGE0.01

PolandREAL GDP/capita

19953,700.00

19964,000.001.08

19974,200.001.05

19984,500.001.07

19994,700.001.04

20004,900.001.04

20014,900.001.00

20025,000.001.02

20035,200.001.04

20045,500.001.06

20055,700.001.04

20066,000.001.05

20076,400.001.07

20086,800.001.06

20096,915.601.02

AVERAGE0.05

RomaniaREAL GDP/capita

19951,939.48

19962,015.121.04

19971,899.260.94

19981,812.280.95

19991,775.000.98

20001,800.001.01

20011,900.001.06

20022,100.001.11

20032,200.001.05

20042,400.001.09

20052,500.001.04

20062,700.001.08

20072,900.001.07

20083,111.701.07

20092,890.770.93

AVERAGE0.03

SloveniaREAL GDP/capita

19958,700.00

19969,000.001.03

19979,500.001.06

19989,800.001.03

199910,400.001.06

200010,800.001.04

200111,100.001.03

200211,500.001.04

200311,800.001.03

200412,300.001.04

200512,800.001.04

200613,500.001.05

200714,400.001.07

200814,900.001.03

200913,600.000.91

AVERAGE0.03

SlovakiaREAL GDP/capita

19953,500.00

19963,700.001.06

19973,900.001.05

19984,000.001.03

19994,000.001.00

20004,100.001.03

20014,200.001.02

20024,400.001.05

20034,600.001.05

20044,900.001.07

20055,200.001.06

20065,600.001.08

20076,200.001.11

20086,600.001.06

20096,300.000.95

AVERAGE0.04

SCATTER_2

AVERAGE REAL GROWTH RATE - INITIAL GDP

AVERAGE REAL GROWTH RATE - INITIAL GDP

PANEL INTERVALE 5

BulgariaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%LN GDPDIF LNDIF LN/3ln Y0

1995170091.00%38.00%37.10%10.90%87.07%15.70%7.4384

19971500112.00%39.00%39.00%15.46%88.77%9.90%7.3132-12.52%-0.04172104777.4384

1998150093.90%40.60%39.30%16.64%88.77%16.90%7.3132

20001700116.80%42.20%42.60%12.73%89.06%18.30%7.438412.52%0.04172104777.3132

20011800118.70%40.90%40.30%14.56%90.08%20.70%7.4955

20032000117.30%40.00%40.30%15.60%91.23%21.70%7.600910.54%0.03512017197.4955

20042200125.50%41.30%39.70%17.27%92.00%23.10%7.6962

20062500147.80%39.50%36.50%13.12%90.94%31.70%7.824012.78%0.04261112387.6962

20072600148.90%41.50%41.50%14.31%90.61%36.80%7.8633

20092660107.70%36.90%40.70%17.90%89.97%26.20%7.88612.28%0.00760489267.8633

Czech RepublicREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

19955500105.80%41.00%54.50%28.97%72.58%32.60%8.6125

19975700109.40%39.40%43.20%24.35%71.03%30.50%8.64823.57%0.01190602758.6125

19985700109.50%38.20%43.20%26.32%71.03%28.40%8.6482

20006000129.80%38.10%41.80%24.78%75.45%29.50%8.69955.13%0.01709776488.6482

20016200133.30%38.70%44.40%27.01%80.03%29.50%8.7323

20036500125.90%40.70%47.30%24.89%80.98%27.20%8.77964.73%0.01575096168.7323

20046800140.20%42.20%45.10%27.58%79.82%27.50%8.8247

20067700149.40%41.10%43.70%30.21%81.76%26.80%8.949012.43%0.04143257228.8247

20078100155.20%41.80%42.50%31.97%82.24%27.00%8.9996

20097855.6133.30%40.30%46.10%26.25%83.21%21.50%8.9690-3.06%-0.01021246958.9996

EstoniaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

19953100143.80%42.40%41.30%21.42%77.99%28.20%8.0392

19973700154.30%39.60%37.40%20.27%76.16%30.90%8.216117.69%0.05897690278.0392

19984000159.20%38.50%39.20%21.73%76.16%31.00%8.2940

20004500172.80%35.90%36.10%23.15%69.68%28.40%8.411811.78%0.03926101198.2940

20014800162.10%34.70%34.80%25.44%67.41%27.90%8.4764

20035700145.90%36.50%34.80%25.66%68.05%33.10%8.648217.19%0.0572834198.4764

20046100153.20%35.60%34.00%26.01%69.05%33.10%8.7160

20067400172.00%36.50%34.00%27.88%71.15%38.70%8.909219.32%0.06439707638.7160

20077900156.90%37.40%34.80%27.85%72.29%40.20%8.9746

20096600135.80%43.60%45.40%23.34%74.70%19.40%8.7948-17.98%-0.05993103688.9746

CyprusREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

199512900100.10%32.30%33.10%20.05%89.11%21.90%9.4650

199713000105.40%31.10%36.10%15.06%90.01%19.40%9.47270.77%0.00257401549.4650

199813500100.50%32.60%36.70%24.74%90.01%19.20%9.5104

200014500109.90%34.70%37.00%14.47%90.71%18.30%9.58197.15%0.02381965479.5104

200114900109.90%35.90%38.20%13.20%89.44%16.40%9.6091

20031510095.20%38.50%45.00%15.12%90.74%17.40%9.62251.33%0.00444451039.6091

20041540098.00%38.70%42.80%14.54%90.41%20.20%9.6421

20061590099.80%42.20%43.40%13.52%90.01%20.80%9.67413.20%0.01065053339.6421

200716500102.10%45.50%42.20%10.80%88.86%22.40%9.7111

200916612.784.60%40.30%46.40%9.16%86.65%17.20%9.71790.68%0.00226902749.7111

LatviaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

1995260086.20%37.00%38.60%14.65%79.67%15.00%7.8633

1997300099.80%37.50%36.30%15.10%77.76%20.60%8.006414.31%0.04770028127.8633

19983200105.20%40.20%40.20%15.27%77.76%24.80%8.0709

2000360090.30%34.60%37.30%18.93%73.74%23.70%8.188711.78%0.03926101198.0709

2001390092.70%32.50%34.60%19.06%70.88%26.60%8.2687

2003450096.70%33.20%34.80%20.57%67.52%28.80%8.411814.31%0.04770028128.2687

20044900103.60%34.70%35.80%20.19%69.11%33.00%8.4970

20066200111.20%37.70%38.10%17.19%72.18%39.70%8.732323.53%0.0784380298.4970

20076800104.60%35.40%35.70%17.88%73.93%40.40%8.8247

2009540085.30%34.00%42.90%27.63%77.55%19.00%8.5942-23.05%-0.07684121958.8247

LithuaniaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

19952700105.60%32.90%34.40%13.51%76.71%22.60%7.9010

19973100113.30%37.90%49.60%15.52%74.81%24.50%8.039213.82%0.04605011287.9010

19983400101.60%37.10%40.10%13.81%74.81%24.30%8.1315

2000350095.70%35.90%39.10%12.99%61.82%18.90%8.16052.90%0.00966251238.1315

20013800105.10%33.20%36.80%14.57%59.73%19.30%8.2428

20034500108.20%31.90%33.20%15.11%60.98%21.90%8.411816.91%0.05635877678.2428

20044900111.20%31.80%33.30%15.20%62.04%22.70%8.4970

20065700128.40%33.10%33.60%15.96%63.08%26.30%8.648215.12%0.05041032328.4970

20076300121.50%33.80%34.80%15.33%63.96%30.90%8.7483

20095600108.70%34.10%43.00%14.65%65.76%11.00%8.6305-11.78%-0.03926101198.7483

HungaryREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

1995410089.60%46.90%55.60%19.17%76.01%22.10%8.3187

19974300107.90%43.70%49.20%22.97%74.49%26.80%8.36644.76%0.01587601638.3187

19984600122.60%43.00%50.40%23.15%74.49%29.40%8.4338

20005000149.80%43.80%46.90%21.75%74.68%29.40%8.51728.34%0.02779386968.4338

20015200143.20%43.20%47.30%21.31%75.21%26.80%8.5564

20035700126.10%42.20%49.40%16.27%77.10%24.60%8.64829.18%0.03060251648.5564

20046000129.10%42.30%48.70%17.26%77.14%26.40%8.6995

20066500155.10%42.60%52.00%16.47%77.73%24.00%8.77968.00%0.02668090268.6995

20076600159.40%44.80%49.80%17.15%77.86%23.50%8.7948

20096200148.80%45.80%49.80%19.21%78.11%18.50%8.7323-6.25%-0.0208401198.7948

MaltaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

199510700179.40%35.50%39.70%16.43%59.02%29.60%9.2780

199710700160.50%35.30%42.90%13.76%57.41%21.70%9.27800.00%09.2780

199810700163.20%33.10%43.00%13.71%57.41%19.20%9.2780

200010800194.80%34.80%41.00%15.59%62.54%26.20%9.28730.93%0.00310079769.2780

200110600168.40%36.60%43.10%12.92%59.83%17.60%9.2686

200310700163.30%37.90%47.80%14.79%64.87%16.50%9.27800.94%0.00312991349.2686

200410700161.90%40.80%45.50%13.05%57.62%16.90%9.2780

200611300179.20%41.20%43.70%17.31%62.57%22.30%9.33265.46%0.01818632819.2780

200711600181.40%40.30%42.40%19.89%60.42%21.90%9.3588

200911500142.60%40.50%44.30%14.19%56.58%11.60%9.3501-0.87%-0.00288602099.3588

PolandREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

1995370044.20%43.30%47.70%20.12%82.92%18.70%8.2161

1997420050.70%41.80%46.40%20.05%81.34%23.40%8.342812.68%0.04225056858.2161

1998450056.80%40.10%44.30%21.23%81.34%25.10%8.4118

2000490060.60%38.10%41.10%19.46%82.83%24.80%8.49708.52%0.02838593618.4118

2001490057.80%38.50%43.80%18.38%83.72%20.80%8.4970

2003520069.30%38.50%44.70%17.03%84.40%18.70%8.55645.94%0.01980780688.4970

2004550077.30%37.20%42.60%15.94%83.87%20.10%8.6125

2006600082.60%40.20%43.90%18.01%84.48%21.10%8.69958.70%0.02900379238.6125

2007640084.40%40.30%42.20%19.35%84.27%24.40%8.7641

20096915.677.70%37.40%44.50%18.67%82.85%20.20%8.84157.75%0.02582724638.7641

RomaniaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

19951939.479611357138.00%33.80%35.90%10.90%77.76%22.95%7.5702

19971899.264246.00%30.50%34.90%11.53%76.32%18.17%7.5492-2.10%-0.00698438257.5702

19981812.27553.20%32.00%35.20%10.62%76.32%17.70%7.5023

2000180070.90%33.80%38.50%16.09%75.77%19.40%7.4955-0.68%-0.00226543247.5023

2001190073.80%32.50%36.00%17.99%77.66%22.20%7.5496

2003220077.10%32.00%33.50%22.45%80.27%22.00%7.696214.66%0.04886782477.5496

2004240080.60%32.30%33.50%21.79%80.65%23.70%7.7832

2006270076.60%33.10%35.30%18.47%80.42%26.50%7.901011.78%0.03926101197.7832

2007290072.50%33.50%36.00%20.17%78.97%31.00%7.9725

20092890.769368.40%32.10%40.40%24.25%76.16%25.10%7.9693-0.32%-0.00106269227.9725

SloveniaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

19958700101.70%44.30%52.60%22.97%90.74%23.70%9.0711

19979500104.20%42.50%44.80%24.23%92.83%24.60%9.15908.80%0.02932292439.0711

19989800104.30%43.30%45.70%24.64%92.83%25.70%9.1901

200010800111.30%43.00%46.70%24.05%89.19%27.30%9.28739.72%0.03238791629.1901

200111100111.80%43.60%47.60%24.37%86.38%24.80%9.3147

200311800108.20%43.70%46.40%24.31%85.65%25.20%9.37596.12%0.02038480779.3147

200412300117.30%43.60%45.80%24.82%85.85%27.40%9.4174

200613500133.50%43.20%44.50%26.54%86.87%28.90%9.51049.31%0.0310301419.4174

200714400140.80%42.40%42.40%27.25%86.95%31.70%9.5750

200913600116.30%44.40%49.90%22.95%87.15%23.50%9.5178-5.72%-0.01905280469.5750

SlovakiaREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%

19953500113.30%45.20%48.60%26.82%85.25%24.40%8.1605

19973900122.40%42.60%49.00%25.14%83.30%34.30%8.268710.82%0.03607119498.1605

19984000129.20%40.50%45.80%24.20%83.30%33.60%8.2940

20004100143.50%39.90%52.20%23.50%82.98%26.00%8.31872.47%0.00823087098.2940

20014200153.60%38.00%44.50%22.51%83.98%29.60%8.3428

20034600153.60%37.40%40.20%18.33%85.68%24.60%8.43389.10%0.03032392618.3428

20044900151.90%35.30%37.70%19.76%87.47%26.40%8.4970

20065600172.80%33.50%36.90%19.77%86.06%28.00%8.630513.35%0.04451046428.4970

20076200174.50%32.50%34.40%22.68%86.37%27.80%8.7323

20096300140.50%34.00%40.80%16.99%87.00%20.60%8.74831.60%0.00533344718.7323

PAN INTERV 5 FINAL

ALLFARA RO si BULGSUMMARY OUTPUT

PerioadaTARADIF LN/3ln Y0SUMMARY OUTPUTPerioadaTARADIF LN/3ln Y0

1995-1997Bulgaria-4.17%7.43841995-1997Czech Republic1.19%8.6125Regression Statistics

1998-2000Bulgaria4.17%7.3132Regression Statistics1998-2000Czech Republic1.71%8.6482Multiple R0.4536505246

2001-2003Bulgaria3.51%7.4955Multiple R0.26956276912001-2003Czech Republic1.58%8.7323R Square0.2057987984

2004-2006Bulgaria4.26%7.6962R Square0.07266408652004-2006Czech Republic4.14%8.8247Adjusted R Square0.1892529401

2007-2009Bulgaria0.76%7.8633Adjusted R Square0.05667553632007-2009Czech Republic-1.02%8.9996Standard Error0.0265478144

1995-1997Czech Republic1.19%8.6125Standard Error0.02845054051995-1997Estonia5.90%8.0392Observations50

1998-2000Czech Republic1.71%8.6482Observations601998-2000Estonia3.93%8.2940

2001-2003Czech Republic1.58%8.73232001-2003Estonia5.73%8.4764ANOVA

2004-2006Czech Republic4.14%8.8247ANOVA2004-2006Estonia6.44%8.7160dfSSMSFSignificance F

2007-2009Czech Republic-1.02%8.9996dfSSMSFSignificance F2007-2009Estonia-5.99%8.9746Regression10.0087661940.00876619412.43808534390.0009372025

1995-1997Estonia5.90%8.0392Regression10.0036786780.0036786784.54475768140.03726701641995-1997Cyprus0.26%9.4650Residual480.03382974960.0007047864

1998-2000Estonia3.93%8.2940Residual580.04694712870.00080943331998-2000Cyprus2.38%9.5104Total490.0425959436

2001-2003Estonia5.73%8.4764Total590.05062580672001-2003Cyprus0.44%9.6091

2004-2006Estonia6.44%8.71602004-2006Cyprus1.07%9.6421CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

2007-2009Estonia-5.99%8.9746CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%2007-2009Cyprus0.23%9.7111Intercept0.25405257820.06644434933.8235392610.00037905680.12045726240.38764789390.12045726240.3876478939

1995-1997Cyprus0.26%9.4650Intercept0.12688501020.05052267252.51144692170.0148307750.02575289420.22801712620.02575289420.22801712621995-1997Latvia4.77%7.8633X Variable 1-0.02672833780.0075787082-3.52676698180.0009372025-0.0419663517-0.011490324-0.0419663517-0.011490324

1998-2000Cyprus2.38%9.5104X Variable 1-0.0125432250.005883745-2.13184372820.0372670164-0.0243208202-0.0007656297-0.0243208202-0.00076562971998-2000Latvia3.93%8.0709

2001-2003Cyprus0.44%9.60912001-2003Latvia4.77%8.2687

2004-2006Cyprus1.07%9.64212004-2006Latvia7.84%8.4970

2007-2009Cyprus0.23%9.7111BETA1.30%2007-2009Latvia-7.68%8.8247BETA2.87%

1995-1997Latvia4.77%7.86331995-1997Lithuania4.61%7.9010

1998-2000Latvia3.93%8.07091998-2000Lithuania0.97%8.1315

2001-2003Latvia4.77%8.26872001-2003Lithuania5.64%8.2428

2004-2006Latvia7.84%8.49702004-2006Lithuania5.04%8.4970

2007-2009Latvia-7.68%8.82472007-2009Lithuania-3.93%8.7483

1995-1997Lithuania4.61%7.90101995-1997Hungary1.59%8.3187

1998-2000Lithuania0.97%8.13151998-2000Hungary2.78%8.4338

2001-2003Lithuania5.64%8.24282001-2003Hungary3.06%8.5564

2004-2006Lithuania5.04%8.49702004-2006Hungary2.67%8.6995

2007-2009Lithuania-3.93%8.74832007-2009Hungary-2.08%8.7948

1995-1997Hungary1.59%8.31871995-1997Malta0.00%9.2780

1998-2000Hungary2.78%8.43381998-2000Malta0.31%9.2780

2001-2003Hungary3.06%8.55642001-2003Malta0.31%9.2686

2004-2006Hungary2.67%8.69952004-2006Malta1.82%9.2780

2007-2009Hungary-2.08%8.79482007-2009Malta-0.29%9.3588

1995-1997Malta0.00%9.27801995-1997Poland4.23%8.2161

1998-2000Malta0.31%9.27801998-2000Poland2.84%8.4118

2001-2003Malta0.31%9.26862001-2003Poland1.98%8.4970

2004-2006Malta1.82%9.27802004-2006Poland2.90%8.6125

2007-2009Malta-0.29%9.35882007-2009Poland2.58%8.7641

1995-1997Poland4.23%8.21611995-1997Slovenia2.93%9.0711

1998-2000Poland2.84%8.41181998-2000Slovenia3.24%9.1901

2001-2003Poland1.98%8.49702001-2003Slovenia2.04%9.3147

2004-2006Poland2.90%8.61252004-2006Slovenia3.10%9.4174

2007-2009Poland2.58%8.76412007-2009Slovenia-1.91%9.5750

1995-1997Romania-0.70%7.57021995-1997Slovakia3.61%8.1605

1998-2000Romania-0.23%7.50231998-2000Slovakia0.82%8.2940

2001-2003Romania4.89%7.54962001-2003Slovakia3.03%8.3428

2004-2006Romania3.93%7.78322004-2006Slovakia4.45%8.4970

2007-2009Romania-0.11%7.97252007-2009Slovakia0.53%8.7323

1995-1997Slovenia2.93%9.0711

1998-2000Slovenia3.24%9.1901

2001-2003Slovenia2.04%9.3147

2004-2006Slovenia3.10%9.4174

2007-2009Slovenia-1.91%9.5750

1995-1997Slovakia3.61%8.1605

1998-2000Slovakia0.82%8.2940

2001-2003Slovakia3.03%8.3428

2004-2006Slovakia4.45%8.4970

2007-2009Slovakia0.53%8.7323

PANEL INTERVALE 5 FIX1

PerioadaTARAANULREAL GDP/capitaEXP+IMP %Venituri G%Cheltuieli%Economisire%SCHOOL 2+3 %GCF%LN GDPDIF LNDIF LN/3ln Y0D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9D10D11D12

1995-1997Bulgaria19971500112.00%39.00%39.00%15.46%88.77%9.90%7.3132-12.52%-0.04172104777.438400000000000

1998-2000Bulgaria20001700116.80%42.20%42.60%12.73%89.06%18.30%7.438412.52%0.04172104777.313200000000000

2001-2003Bulgaria20032000117.30%40.00%40.30%15.60%91.23%21.70%7.600910.54%0.03512017197.495500000000000

2004-2006Bulgaria20062500147.80%39.50%36.50%13.12%90.94%31.70%7.824012.78%0.04261112387.696200000000000

2007-2009Bulgaria20092660107.70%36.90%40.70%17.90%89.97%26.20%7.88612.28%0.00760489267.863300000000000

1995-1997Czech Republic19975700109.40%39.40%43.20%24.35%71.03%30.50%8.64823.57%0.01190602758.612510000000000

1998-2000Czech Republic20006000129.80%38.10%41.80%24.78%75.45%29.50%8.69955.13%0.01709776488.648210000000000

2001-2003Czech Republic20036500125.90%40.70%47.30%24.89%80.98%27.20%8.77964.73%0.01575096168.732310000000000

2004-2006Czech Republic20067700149.40%41.10%43.70%30.21%81.76%26.80%8.949012.43%0.04143257228.824710000000000

2007-2009Czech Republic20097855.6133.30%40.30%46.10%26.25%83.21%21.50%8.9690-3.06%-0.01021246958.999610000000000

1995-1997Estonia19973700154.30%39.60%37.40%20.27%76.16%30.90%8.216117.69%0.05897690278.039201000000000

1998-2000Estonia20004500172.80%35.90%36.10%23.15%69.68%28.40%8.411811.78%0.03926101198.294001000000000

2001-2003Estonia20035700145.90%36.50%34.80%25.66%68.05%33.10%8.648217.19%0.0572834198.476401000000000

2004-2006Estonia20067400172.00%36.50%34.00%27.88%71.15%38.70%8.909219.32%0.06439707638.716001000000000

2007-2009Estonia20096600135.80%43.60%45.40%23.34%74.70%19.40%8.7948-17.98%-0.05993103688.974601000000000

1995-1997Cyprus199713000105.40%31.10%36.10%15.06%90.01%19.40%9.47270.77%0.00257401549.465000100000000

1998-2000Cyprus200014500109.90%34.70%37.00%14.47%90.71%18.30%9.58197.15%0.02381965479.510400100000000

2001-2003Cyprus20031510095.20%38.50%45.00%15.12%90.74%17.40%9.62251.33%0.00444451039.609100100000000

2004-2006Cyprus20061590099.80%42.20%43.40%13.52%90.01%20.80%9.67413.20%0.01065053339.642100100000000

2007-2009Cyprus200916612.784.60%40.30%46.40%9.16%86.65%17.20%9.71790.68%0.00226902749.711100100000000

1995-1997Latvia1997300099.80%37.50%36.30%15.10%77.76%20.60%8.006414.31%0.04770028127.863300010000000

1998-2000Latvia2000360090.30%34.60%37.30%18.93%73.74%23.70%8.188711.78%0.03926101198.070900010000000

2001-2003Latvia2003450096.70%33.20%34.80%20.57%67.52%28.80%8.411814.31%0.04770028128.268700010000000

2004-2006Latvia20066200111.20%37.70%38.10%17.19%72.18%39.70%8.732323.53%0.0784380298.497000010000000

2007-2009Latvia2009540085.30%34.00%42.90%27.63%77.55%19.00%8.5942-23.05%-0.07684121958.824700010000000

1995-1997Lithuania19973100113.30%37.90%49.60%15.52%74.81%24.50%8.039213.82%0.04605011287.901000001000000

1998-2000Lithuania2000350095.70%35.90%39.10%12.99%61.82%18.90%8.16052.90%0.00966251238.131500001000000

2001-2003Lithuania20034500108.20%31.90%33.20%15.11%60.98%21.90%8.411816.91%0.05635877678.242800001000000

2004-2006Lithuania20065700128.40%33.10%33.60%15.96%63.08%26.30%8.648215.12%0.05041032328.497000001000000

2007-2009Lithuania20095600108.70%34.10%43.00%14.65%65.76%11.00%8.6305-11.78%-0.03926101198.748300001000000

1995-1997Hungary19974300107.90%43.70%49.20%22.97%74.49%26.80%8.36644.76%0.01587601638.318700000100000

1998-2000Hungary20005000149.80%43.80%46.90%21.75%74.68%29.40%8.51728.34%0.02779386968.433800000100000

2001-2003Hungary20035700126.10%42.20%49.40%16.27%77.10%24.60%8.64829.18%0.03060251648.556400000100000

2004-2006Hungary20066500155.10%42.60%52.00%16.47%77.73%24.00%8.77968.00%0.02668090268.699500000100000

2007-2009Hungary20096200148.80%45.80%49.80%19.21%78.11%18.50%8.7323-6.25%-0.0208401198.794800000100000

1995-1997Malta199710700160.50%35.30%0.42913.76%57.41%21.70%9.27800.00%09.277999020400000010000

1998-2000Malta200010800194.80%34.80%41.00%15.59%62.54%26.20%9.28730.93%0.00310079769.278000000010000

2001-2003Malta200310700163.30%37.90%47.80%14.79%64.87%16.50%9.27800.94%0.00312991349.268600000010000

2004-2006Malta200611300179.20%41.20%43.70%17.31%62.57%22.30%9.33265.46%0.01818632819.278000000010000

2007-2009Malta200911500142.60%40.50%44.30%14.19%56.58%11.60%9.3501-0.87%-0.00288602099.358800000010000

1995-1997Poland1997420050.70%41.80%46.40%20.05%81.34%23.40%8.342812.68%0.04225056858.216100000001000

1998-2000Poland2000490060.60%38.10%41.10%19.46%82.83%24.80%8.49708.52%0.02838593618.411800000001000

2001-2003Poland2003520069.30%38.50%44.70%17.03%84.40%18.70%8.55645.94%0.01980780688.497000000001000

2004-2006Poland2006600082.60%40.20%43.90%18.01%84.48%21.10%8.69958.70%0.02900379238.612500000001000

2007-2009Poland20096915.677.70%37.40%44.50%18.67%82.85%20.20%8.84157.75%0.02582724638.764100000001000

1995-1997Romania19971899.264246.00%30.50%34.90%11.53%76.32%18.17%7.5492-2.10%-0.00698438257.570200000000100

1998-2000Romania2000180070.90%33.80%38.50%16.09%75.77%19.40%7.4955-0.68%-0.00226543247.502300000000100

2001-2003Romania2003220077.10%32.00%33.50%22.45%80.27%22.00%7.696214.66%0.04886782477.549600000000100

2004-2006Romania2006270076.60%33.10%35.30%18.47%80.42%26.50%7.901011.78%0.03926101197.783200000000100

2007-2009Romania20092890.769368.40%32.10%40.40%24.25%76.16%25.10%7.9693-0.32%-0.00106269227.972500000000100

1995-1997Slovenia19979500104.20%42.50%44.80%24.23%92.83%24.60%9.15908.80%0.02932292439.071100000000010

1998-2000Slovenia200010800111.30%43.00%46.70%24.05%89.19%27.30%9.28739.72%0.03238791629.190100000000010

2001-2003Slovenia200311800108.20%43.70%46.40%24.31%85.65%25.20%9.37596.12%0.02038480779.314700000000010

2004-2006Slovenia200613500133.50%43.20%44.50%26.54%86.87%28.90%9.51049.31%0.0310301419.417400000000010

2007-2009Slovenia200913600116.30%44.40%49.90%22.95%87.15%23.50%9.5178-5.72%-0.01905280469.575000000000010

1995-1997Slovakia19973900122.40%42.60%49.00%25.14%83.30%34.30%8.268710.82%0.03607119498.160500000000001

1998-2000Slovakia20004100143.50%39.90%52.20%23.50%82.98%26.00%8.31872.47%0.00823087098.294000000000001

2001-2003Slovakia20034600153.60%37.40%40.20%18.33%85.68%24.60%8.43389.10%0.03032392618.342800000000001

2004-2006Slovakia20065600172.80%33.50%36.90%19.77%86.06%28.00%8.630513.35%0.04451046428.497000000000001

2007-2009Slovakia20096300140.50%34.00%40.80%16.99%87.00%20.60%8.74831.60%0.00533344718.732300000000001

PANEL INT5 FIX1 REZULTAT

ALLSUMMARY OUTPUTFARA RO SI BULGSUMMARY OUTPUT

PerioadaTARAANULREAL GDP/capitaDIF LN/3ln Y0D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9D10D11D12PerioadaTARAANULREAL GDP/capitaDIF LN/3ln Y0D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9D10

1995-1997Bulgaria19971500-4.1721%7.438400000000000Regression Statistics1995-1997Czech Republic199757001.1906%8.6125000000000Regression Statistics

1998-2000Bulgaria200017004.1721%7.313200000000000Multiple R0.55601982961998-2000Czech Republic200060001.7098%8.6482000000000Multiple R0.6355309731

2001-2003Bulgaria200320003.5120%7.495500000000000R Square0.30915805092001-2003Czech Republic200365001.5751%8.7323000000000R Square0.4038996178

2004-2006Bulgaria200625004.2611%7.696200000000000Adjusted R Square0.13277287242004-2006Czech Republic200677004.1433%8.8247000000000Adjusted R Square0.251053366

2007-2009Bulgaria200926600.7605%7.863300000000000Standard Error0.02727887152007-2009Czech Republic20097855.6-1.0212%8.9996000000000Standard Error0.0255159368

1995-1997Czech Republic199757001.1906%8.612510000000000Observations601995-1997Estonia199737005.8977%8.0392100000000Observations50

1998-2000Czech Republic200060001.7098%8.6482100000000001998-2000Estonia200045003.9261%8.2940100000000

2001-2003Czech Republic200365001.5751%8.732310000000000ANOVA2001-2003Estonia200357005.7283%8.4764100000000ANOVA

2004-2006Czech Republic200677004.1433%8.824710000000000dfSSMSFSignificance F2004-2006Estonia200674006.4397%8.7160100000000dfSSMSFSignificance F

2007-2009Czech Republic20097855.6-1.0212%8.999610000000000Regression120.01565137570.00130428131.752743930.08535951372007-2009Estonia20096600-5.9931%8.9746100000000Regression100.01720448530.00172044852.6425222270.0145602075

1995-1997Estonia199737005.8977%8.039201000000000Residual470.0349744310.00074413681995-1997Cyprus1997130000.2574%9.4650010000000Residual390.02539145830.000651063

1998-2000Estonia200045003.9261%8.294001000000000Total590.05062580671998-2000Cyprus2000145002.3820%9.5104010000000Total490.0425959436

2001-2003Estonia200357005.7283%8.4764010000000002001-2003Cyprus2003151000.4445%9.6091010000000

2004-2006Estonia200674006.4397%8.716001000000000CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%2004-2006Cyprus2006159001.0651%9.6421010000000CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

2007-2009Estonia20096600-5.9931%8.974601000000000Intercept0.52070058960.1268406934.10515408970.00015976460.2655300330.77587114620.2655300330.77587114622007-2009Cyprus200916612.70.2269%9.7111010000000Intercept0.68386900170.14718452794.64633756810.00003796740.38616019620.98157780710.38616019620.9815778071

1995-1997Cyprus1997130000.2574%9.465000100000000X Variable 1-0.06660649410.0166971607-3.98909103280.0002305834-0.1001968482-0.03301614-0.1001968482-0.033016141995-1997Latvia199730004.7700%7.8633001000000X Variable 1-0.07630246770.0167446907-4.55681559190.000050142-0.1101718013-0.0424331342-0.1101718013-0.0424331342

1998-2000Cyprus2000145002.3820%9.510400100000000X Variable 20.07819808320.02646796442.95444265590.00488140710.02495140770.13144475870.02495140770.13144475871998-2000Latvia200036003.9261%8.0709001000000X Variable 2-0.00329688390.0167296362-0.19706847420.8447974109-0.03713576680.0305419991-0.03713576680.0305419991

2001-2003Cyprus2003151000.4445%9.609100100000000X Variable 30.07745528610.0233094253.32291706840.0017312820.03056277230.12434779990.03056277230.12434779992001-2003Latvia200345004.7700%8.2687001000000X Variable 30.0564367670.02123303572.6579697740.0113385880.0134888990.09938463510.0134888990.0993846351

2004-2006Cyprus2006159001.0651%9.642100100000000X Variable 40.12664448390.03797736283.3347361340.00167297150.05024388590.20304508190.05024388590.20304508192004-2006Latvia200662007.8438%8.4970001000000X Variable 4-0.02293184620.0178712437-1.2831701390.2070054697-0.05907984820.0132161557-0.05907984820.0132161557

2007-2009Cyprus200916612.70.2269%9.711100100000000X Variable 50.05971233270.0212557682.80922959640.00721376070.01695124370.10247342170.01695124370.10247342172007-2009Latvia20095400-7.6841%8.8247001000000X Variable 5-0.02560017080.0178769794-1.43201880710.160104876-0.06175977440.0105594329-0.06175977440.0105594329

1995-1997Latvia199730004.7700%7.863300010000000X Variable 60.05705173290.02124800052.68504008270.00998747720.01430627030.09979719560.01430627030.09979719561995-1997Lithuania199731004.6050%7.9010000100000X Variable 6-0.01464676780.0164911269-0.88816051810.3798995579-0.04800322010.0187096845-0.04800322010.0187096845

1998-2000Latvia200036003.9261%8.070900010000000X Variable 70.06551769610.02400166732.72971436490.00889279640.01723257030.11380282190.01723257030.11380282191998-2000Lithuania200035000.9663%8.1315000100000X Variable 70.0294605890.01840737351.60047760680.1175632827-0.00777183780.0666930159-0.00777183780.0666930159

2001-2003Latvia200345004.7700%8.268700010000000X Variable 80.10253136360.03365970623.04611581920.0037941980.034816770.17024595720.034816770.17024595722001-2003Lithuania200345005.6359%8.2428000100000X Variable 8-0.0062205550.0167285528-0.37185254740.712015475-0.04005724640.0276161365-0.04005724640.0276161365

2004-2006Latvia200662007.8438%8.497000010000000X Variable 90.07452923450.02331218183.19700812510.00248447830.02763117480.12142729430.02763117480.12142729432004-2006Lithuania200657005.0410%8.4970000100000X Variable 90.04560014080.01858221762.4539665670.01869862350.00801405830.08318622340.00801405830.0831862234

2007-2009Latvia20095400-7.6841%8.824700010000000X Variable 100.00610498350.01735779540.35171421920.7266246147-0.02881439620.0410243632-0.02881439620.04102436322007-2009Lithuania20095600-3.9261%8.7483000100000X Variable 10-0.01762679490.0172158499-1.02387015530.3122057722-0.05244913780.017195548-0.05244913780.017195548

1995-1997Lithuania199731004.6050%7.901000001000000X Variable 110.11846363940.03396668923.48764163610.00106832140.05013147580.1867958030.05013147580.1867958031995-1997Hungary199743001.5876%8.3187000010000

1998-2000Lithuania200035000.9663%8.131500001000000X Variable 120.06404365670.0222768462.87489784750.00605387190.01922842380.10885888960.01922842380.10885888961998-2000Hungary200050002.7794%8.4338000010000

2001-2003Lithuania200345005.6359%8.2428000010000002001-2003Hungary200357003.0603%8.5564000010000

2004-2006Lithuania200657005.0410%8.4970000010000002004-2006Hungary200665002.6681%8.69950000100009.61%

2007-2009Lithuania20095600-3.9261%8.7483000010000008.10%2007-2009Hungary20096200-2.0840%8.7948000010000

1995-1997Hungary199743001.5876%8.3187000001000001995-1997Malta1997107000.00%9.2780000001000

1998-2000Hungary200050002.7794%8.4338000001000001998-2000Malta2000108000.3101%9.2780000001000

2001-2003Hungary200357003.0603%8.5564000001000002001-2003Malta2003107000.3130%9.2686000001000

2004-2006Hungary200665002.6681%8.6995000001000002004-2006Malta2006113001.8186%9.2780000001000

2007-2009Hungary20096200-2.0840%8.7948000001000002007-2009Malta200911500-0.2886%9.3588000001000

1995-1997Malta1997107000.00%9.2780000000100001995-1997Poland199742004.2251%8.2161000000100

1998-2000Malta2000108000.3101%9.2780000000100001998-2000Poland200049002.8386%8.4118000000100

2001-2003Malta2003107000.3130%9.2686000000100002001-2003Poland200352001.9808%8.4970000000100

2004-2006Malta2006113001.8186%9.2780000000100002004-2006Poland200660002.9004%8.6125000000100

2007-2009Malta200911500-0.2886%9.3588000000100002007-2009Poland20096915.62.5827%8.7641000000100

1995-1997Poland199742004.2251%8.2161000000010001995-1997Slovenia199795002.9323%9.0711000000010

1998-2000Poland200049002.8386%8.4118000000010001998-2000Slovenia2000108003.2388%9.1901000000010

2001-2003Poland200352001.9808%8.4970000000010002001-2003Slovenia2003118002.0385%9.3147000000010

2004-2006Poland200660002.9004%8.6125000000010002004-2006Slovenia2006135003.1030%9.4174000000010

2007-2009Poland20096915.62.5827%8.7641000000010002007-2009Slovenia200913600-1.9053%9.5750000000010

1995-1997Romania19971899.2642-0.6984%7.5702000000001001995-1997Slovakia199739003.6071%8.1605000000001

1998-2000Romania20001800-0.2265%7.5023000000001001998-2000Slovakia200041000.8231%8.2940000000001

2001-2003Romania200322004.8868%7.5496000000001002001-2003Slovakia200346003.0324%8.3428000000001

2004-2006Romania200627003.9261%7.7832000000001002004-2006Slovakia200656004.4510%8.4970000000001

2007-2009Romania20092890.7693-0.1063%7.9725000000001002007-2009Slovakia200963000.5333%8.7323000000001

1995-1997Slovenia199795002.9323%9.071100000000010

1998-2000Slovenia2000108003.2388%9.190100000000010

2001-2003Slovenia2003118002.0385%9.314700000000010

2004-2006Slovenia2006135003.1030%9.417400000000010

2007-2009Slovenia200913600-1.9053%9.575000000000010

1995-1997Slovakia199739003.6071%8.160500000000001

1998-2000Slovakia200041000.8231%8.294000000000001

2001-2003Slovakia200346003.0324%8.342800000000001

2004-2006Slovakia200656004.4510%8.497000000000001

2007-2009Slovakia200963000.5333%8.732300000000001

PANEL INT5 FIX2

Fixed effects 2 ways

ALL

PerioadaTARAANULREAL GDP/capitaDIF LN/3ln Y0D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9D10D11D12D2lnYoD3lnYoD4lnYoD5lnYoD6lnYoD7lnYoD8lnYoD9lnYoD10lnYoD11lnYoD12lnYo

1995-1997Bulgaria19971500-4.1721%7.4384000000000000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Bulgaria200017004.1721%7.3132000000000000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Bulgaria200320003.5120%7.4955000000000000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Bulgaria200625004.2611%7.6962000000000000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Bulgaria200926600.7605%7.8633000000000000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Czech Republic199757001.1906%8.6125100000000008.61250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Czech Republic200060001.7098%8.6482100000000008.64820.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Czech Republic200365001.5751%8.7323100000000008.73230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Czech Republic200677004.1433%8.8247100000000008.82470.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Czech Republic20097855.6-1.0212%8.9996100000000008.99960.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Estonia199737005.8977%8.0392010000000000.08.03920.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Estonia200045003.9261%8.2940010000000000.08.29400.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Estonia200357005.7283%8.4764010000000000.08.47640.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Estonia200674006.4397%8.7160010000000000.08.71600.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Estonia20096600-5.9931%8.9746010000000000.08.97460.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Cyprus1997130000.2574%9.4650001000000000.00.09.46500.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Cyprus2000145002.3820%9.5104001000000000.00.09.51040.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Cyprus2003151000.4445%9.6091001000000000.00.09.60910.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Cyprus2006159001.0651%9.6421001000000000.00.09.64210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Cyprus200916612.70.2269%9.7111001000000000.00.09.71110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Latvia199730004.7700%7.8633000100000000.00.00.07.86330.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Latvia200036003.9261%8.0709000100000000.00.00.08.07090.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Latvia200345004.7700%8.2687000100000000.00.00.08.26870.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Latvia200662007.8438%8.4970000100000000.00.00.08.49700.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Latvia20095400-7.6841%8.8247000100000000.00.00.08.82470.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Lithuania199731004.6050%7.9010000010000000.00.00.00.07.90100.00.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Lithuania200035000.9663%8.1315000010000000.00.00.00.08.13150.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Lithuania200345005.6359%8.2428000010000000.00.00.00.08.24280.00.00.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Lithuania200657005.0410%8.4970000010000000.00.00.00.08.49700.00.00.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Lithuania20095600-3.9261%8.7483000010000000.00.00.00.08.74830.00.00.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Hungary199743001.5876%8.3187000001000000.00.00.00.00.08.31870.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Hungary200050002.7794%8.4338000001000000.00.00.00.00.08.43380.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Hungary200357003.0603%8.5564000001000000.00.00.00.00.08.55640.00.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Hungary200665002.6681%8.6995000001000000.00.00.00.00.08.69950.00.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Hungary20096200-2.0840%8.7948000001000000.00.00.00.00.08.79480.00.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Malta1997107000.00%9.2780000000100000.00.00.00.00.00.09.27800.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Malta2000108000.3101%9.2780000000100000.00.00.00.00.00.09.27800.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Malta2003107000.3130%9.2686000000100000.00.00.00.00.00.09.26860.00.00.00.0

2004-2006Malta2006113001.8186%9.2780000000100000.00.00.00.00.00.09.27800.00.00.00.0

2007-2009Malta200911500-0.2886%9.3588000000100000.00.00.00.00.00.09.35880.00.00.00.0

1995-1997Poland199742004.2251%8.2161000000010000.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.21610.00.00.0

1998-2000Poland200049002.8386%8.4118000000010000.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.41180.00.00.0

2001-2003Poland200352001.9808%8.4970000000010000.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.49700.00.00.0

2004-2006Poland200660002.9004%8.6125000000010000.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.61250.00.00.0

2007-2009Poland20096915.62.5827%8.7641000000010000.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.76410.00.00.0

1995-1997Romania19971899.2642-0.6984%7.5702000000001000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.57020.00.0

1998-2000Romania20001800-0.2265%7.5023000000001000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.50230.00.0

2001-2003Romania200322004.8868%7.5496000000001000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.54960.00.0

2004-2006Romania200627003.9261%7.7832000000001000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.78320.00.0

2007-2009Romania20092890.7693-0.1063%7.9725000000001000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.97250.00.0

1995-1997Slovenia199795002.9323%9.0711000000000100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.07110.0

1998-2000Slovenia2000108003.2388%9.1901000000000100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.19010.0

2001-2003Slovenia2003118002.0385%9.3147000000000100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.31470.0

2004-2006Slovenia2006135003.1030%9.4174000000000100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.41740.0

2007-2009Slovenia200913600-1.9053%9.5750000000000100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.57500.0

1995-1997Slovakia199739003.6071%8.1605000000000010.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.1605

1998-2000Slovakia200041000.8231%8.2940000000000010.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.2940

2001-2003Slovakia200346003.0324%8.3428000000000010.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.3428

2004-2006Slovakia200656004.4510%8.4970000000000010.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.4970

2007-2009Slovakia200963000.5333%8.7323000000000010.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.7323

FIX 2 rezultat slope doar

Fixed effects 2 waysdoar slope, intercept nu pot pentru ca in excel la regression ai maxim 16 exogeneSUMMARY OUTPUT

ALL

PerioadaTARAANULREAL GDP/capitaDIF LN/3ln Y0D2lnYoD3lnYoD4lnYoD5lnYoD6lnYoD7lnYoD8lnYoD9lnYoD10lnYoD11lnYoD12lnYoRegression Statistics

1995-1997Bulgaria19971500-4.1721%7.43840.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Multiple R0.5488301109

1998-2000Bulgaria200017004.1721%7.31320.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0R Square0.3012144907

2001-2003Bulgaria200320003.5120%7.49550.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Adjusted R Square0.1228011692

2004-2006Bulgaria200625004.2611%7.69620.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Standard Error0.0274352546

2007-2009Bulgaria200926600.7605%7.86330.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Observations60

1995-1997Czech Republic199757001.1906%8.61258.61250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1998-2000Czech Republic200060001.7098%8.64828.64820.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0ANOVA

2001-2003Czech Republic200365001.5751%8.73238.73230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0dfSSMSFSignificance F

2004-2006Czech Republic200677004.1433%8.82478.82470.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Regression120.01524922660.00127076891.68829596410.1001530818

2007-2009Czech Republic20097855.6-1.0212%8.99968.99960.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Residual470.03537658010.0007526932

1995-1997Estonia199737005.8977%8.03920.08.03920.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Total590.0506258067

1998-2000Estonia200045003.9261%8.29400.08.29400.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Estonia200357005.7283%8.47640.08.47640.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

2004-2006Estonia200674006.4397%8.71600.08.71600.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0betarealIntercept0.57323713650.14035637484.08415461910.00020.29087653570.85559773740.29087653570.8555977374

2007-2009Estonia20096600-5.9931%8.97460.08.97460.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.66%-0.0735038184D1X Variable 1-0.07350381840.0186208401-3.9473953950.0003-0.1109641161-0.0360435206-0.1109641161-0.0360435206

1995-1997Cyprus1997130000.2574%9.46500.00.09.46500.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.06.28%-0.0636730085D2lnYoX Variable 20.00983080990.00332150152.95974873820.00480.00314881090.0165128090.00314881090.016512809

1998-2000Cyprus2000145002.3820%9.51040.00.09.51040.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.63%-0.0637234952D3lnYoX Variable 30.00978032320.00299372183.26694454780.00200.00375773180.01580291450.00375773180.0158029145

2001-2003Cyprus2003151000.4445%9.60910.00.09.60910.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.91%-0.0588744153D4lnYoX Variable 40.01462940310.00442398533.30683808080.00180.00572949280.02352931350.00572949280.0235293135

2004-2006Cyprus2006159001.0651%9.64210.00.09.64210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.06.90%-0.0658008114D5lnYoX Variable 50.0077030070.00276089642.79003836530.00760.00214879990.01325721410.00214879990.0132572141

2007-2009Cyprus200916612.70.2269%9.71110.00.09.71110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.06.80%-0.0660713461D6lnYoX Variable 60.00743247230.00275635632.69648453890.00970.00188739860.01297754590.00188739860.0129775459

1995-1997Latvia199730004.7700%7.86330.00.00.07.86330.00.00.00.00.00.00.06.11%-0.0650873658D7lnYoX Variable 70.00841645260.00305865322.75168579690.00840.00226323610.01456966910.00226323610.0145696691

1998-2000Latvia200036003.9261%8.07090.00.00.08.07090.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.98%-0.0612267641D8lnYoX Variable 80.01227705430.00403074743.04585059620.00380.00416823660.02038587190.00416823660.0203858719

2001-2003Latvia200345004.7700%8.26870.00.00.08.26870.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.58%-0.0640014606D9lnYoX Variable 90.00950235780.00298319473.18529591550.00260.00350094430.01550377130.00350094430.0155037713

2004-2006Latvia200662007.8438%8.49700.00.00.08.49700.00.00.00.00.00.00.06.94%-0.0726209153D10lnYoX Variable 100.00088290310.00229346720.38496433620.7020-0.00373095770.0054967638-0.00373095770.0054967638

2007-2009Latvia20095400-7.6841%8.82470.00.00.08.82470.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.92%-0.0595365616D11lnYoX Variable 110.01396725680.00406376033.43702770820.00120.00579202570.0221424880.00579202570.022142488

1995-1997Lithuania199731004.6050%7.90100.00.00.00.07.90100.00.00.00.00.00.07.89%-0.0652185814D12lnYoX Variable 120.0082852370.00286754292.88931582510.00580.00251648490.01405398910.00251648490.0140539891

1998-2000Lithuania200035000.9663%8.13150.00.00.00.08.13150.00.00.00.00.00.0

2001-2003Lithuania200345005.6359%8.24280.00.00.00.08.24280.00.00.00.00.00.0C0.573767realIndividual betatara

2004-2006Lithuania200657005.0410%8.49700.00.00.00.08.49700.00.00.00.00.00.0LN_GDP0-0.073575-0.07357515.11%Bulgaria

2007-2009Lithuania20095600-3.9261%8.74830.00.00.00.08.74830.00.00.00.00.00.0GDP_D20.009842-0.06373320.82%Czech Republic

1995-1997Hungary199743001.5876%8.31870.00.00.00.00.08.31870.00.00.00.00.0GDP_D30.009792-0.06378320.94%Estonia

1998-2000Hungary200050002.7794%8.43380.00.00.00.00.08.43380.00.00.00.00.0GDP_D40.014646-0.05892914.36%Cyprus

2001-2003Hungary200357003.0603%8.55640.00.00.00.00.08.55640.00.00.00.00.0GDP_D50.007711-0.06586429.46%Latvia

2004-2006Hungary200665002.6681%8.69950.00.00.00.00.08.69950.00.00.00.00.0GDP_D60.007442-0.06613332.18%Lithuania

2007-2009Hungary20096200-2.0840%8.79480.00.00.00.00.08.79480.00.00.00.00.0GDP_D70.008428-0.06514725.21%Hungary

1995-1997Malta1997107000.00%9.27800.00.00.00.00.00.09.27800.00.00.00.0GDP_D80.012429-0.06114616.61%Malta

1998-2000Malta2000108000.3101%9.27800.00.00.00.00.00.09.27800.00.00.00.0GDP_D90.009512-0.06406321.62%Poland

2001-2003Malta2003107000.3130%9.26860.00.00.00.00.00.09.26860.00.00.00.0GDP_D100.000884-0.07269116.03%Romania

2004-2006Malta2006113001.8186%9.27800.00.00.00.00.00.09.27800.00.00.00.0GDP_D110.01398-0.05959514.96%Slovenia

2007-2009Malta200911500-0.2886%9.35880.00.00.00.00.00.09.35880.00.00.00.0GDP_D120.008291-0.06528425.84%Slovakia

1995-1997Poland199742004.2251%8.21610.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.21610.00.00.0

1998-2000Poland200049002.8386%8.41180.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.41180.00.00.0

2001-2003Poland200352001.9808%8.49700.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.49700.00.00.0

2004-2006Poland200660002.9004%8.61250.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.61250.00.00.0

2007-2009Poland20096915.62.5827%8.76410.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.76410.00.00.0

1995-1997Romania19971899.2642-0.6984%7.57020.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.57020.00.0

1998-2000Romania20001800-0.2265%7.50230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.50230.00.0

2001-2003Romania200322004.8868%7.54960.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.54960.00.0

2004-2006Romania200627003.9261%7.78320.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.78320.00.0

2007-2009Romania20092890.7693-0.1063%7.97250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07.97250.00.0

1995-1997Slovenia199795002.9323%9.07110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.07110.0

1998-2000Slovenia2000108003.2388%9.19010.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.19010.0

2001-2003Slovenia2003118002.0385%9.31470.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.31470.0

2004-2006Slovenia2006135003.1030%9.41740.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.41740.0

2007-2009Slovenia200913600-1.9053%9.57500.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.57500.0

1995-1997Slovakia199739003.6071%8.16050.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.1605

1998-2000Slovakia200041000.8231%8.29400.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.2940

2001-2003Slovakia200346003.0324%8.34280.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.3428

2004-2006Slovakia200656004.4510%8.49700.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.4970

2007-2009Slovakia200963000.5333%8.73230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08.7323

FIX 2 rezultat slope doar

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viteza convergenta

YearEuropean Union (15 countries)BulgariaCzech RepublicEstoniaCyprusLatviaLithuaniaHungaryMaltaPolandRomaniaSloveniaSlovakia

199520400170055003100129002600270041001070037001,939.4887003500

199620700150058003300129002800290041001080040002,015.1290003700

199721200150057003700130003000310043001070042001,899.2695003900

199821800150057004000135003200340046001070045001,812.2898004000

199922400160058004100140003300340048001080047001,775.00104004000

200023200170060004500145003600350050001080049001,800.00108004100

200123500180062004800149003900380052001060049001,900.00111004200

200223700190063005300151004200410055001080050002,100.00115004400

200323800200065005700151004500450057001070052002,200.00118004600

200424200220068006100154004900490060001070055002,400.00123004900

200524500230072006700156005500530063001100057002,500.00128005200

200625100250077007400159006200570065001130060002,700.00135005600

200725600260081007900165006800630066001160064002,900.00144006200

200825600280082007600169006500650066001180068003,111.70149006600

20092440026607855.6660016612.7540056006200115006915.62,890.77136006300

YearEuropean Union (15 countries)BulgariaCzech RepublicEstoniaCyprusLatviaLithuaniaHungaryMaltaPolandRomaniaSloveniaSlovakia

1995100%8.33%26.96%15.20%63.24%12.75%13.24%20.10%52.45%18.14%9.51%42.65%17.16%

1996100%7.25%28.02%15.94%62.32%13.53%14.01%19.81%52.17%19.32%9.73%43.48%17.87%

1997100%7.08%26.89%17.45%61.32%14.15%14.62%20.28%50.47%19.81%8.96%44.81%18.40%

1998100%6.88%26.15%18.35%61.93%14.68%15.60%21.10%49.08%20.64%8.31%44.95%18.35%

1999100%7.14%25.89%18.30%62.50%14.73%15.18%21.43%48.21%20.98%7.92%46.43%17.86%

2000100%7.33%25.86%19.40%62.50%15.52%15.09%21.55%46.55%21.12%7.76%46.55%17.67%

2001100%7.66%26.38%20.43%63.40%16.60%16.17%22.13%45.11%20.85%8.09%47.23%17.87%

2002100%8.02%26.58%22.36%63.71%17.72%17.30%23.21%45.57%21.10%8.86%48.52%18.57%

2003100%8.40%27.31%23.95%63.45%18.91%18.91%23.95%44.96%21.85%9.24%49.58%19.33%

2004100%9.09%28.10%25.21%63.64%20.25%20.25%24.79%44.21%22.73%9.92%50.83%20.25%

2005100%9.39%29.39%27.35%63.67%22.45%21.63%25.71%44.90%23.27%10.20%52.24%21.22%

2006100%9.96%30.68%29.48%63.35%24.70%22.71%25.90%45.02%23.90%10.76%53.78%22.31%

2007100%10.16%31.64%30.86%64.45%26.56%24.61%25.78%45.31%25.00%11.33%56.25%24.22%

2008100%10.94%32.03%29.69%66.02%25.39%25.39%25.78%46.09%26.56%12.16%58.20%25.78%

2009100%10.90%32.20%27.05%68.08%22.13%22.95%25.41%47.13%28.34%11.85%55.74%25.82%

Gap reduction 1995-20092.57%5.23%11.85%4.85%9.39%9.72%5.31%-5.32%10.21%2.34%13.09%8.66%

GAMA

ANULREAL GDP/capitaAVERAGECANULDISPERIA

19951,700.005094.95663427980.444019950.4763953644

19955,500.005094.95663427980.006319960.452627292

19953,100.005094.95663427980.153319970.4299290138

199512,900.005094.95663427982.346819980.4182974705

19952,600.005094.95663427980.239819990.4262347156

19952,700.005094.95663427980.221020000.4130318142

19954,100.005094.95663427980.038120010.3942217317

199510,700.005094.95663427981.210320020.3676400686

19953,700.005094.95663427980.075020030.3368688385

19951,939.485094.95663427980.383620040.3090064254

19958,700.005094.95663427980.500720050.2853217432

19953,500.005094.95663427980.098020060.261992513

19961,500.005234.593276350.509020070.2503113647

19965,800.005234.593276350.011720080.2505612074

19963,300.005234.593276350.136620090.2727879713

199612,900.005234.593276352.1444

19962,800.005234.593276350.2163

19962,900.005234.593276350.1989

19964,100.005234.593276350.0470

199610,800.005234.593276351.1304

19964,000.005234.593276350.0556

19962,015.125234.593276350.3783

19969,000.005234.593276350.5174DE ELIMINAT ROMANIA SI BULGARIA SI VERIFICAT CE SE INTAMPLA CU EVOLUTIA DISPERIEI FARA ELE

19963,700.005234.593276350.0859

19971,500.005374.93868333330.5197To test s-convergence we analysed income dispersion by estimating the trend line of standard deviation of log GDP per capita [Matkowski Z, Prochniak M, pag 16, 2_50]

19975,700.005374.93868333330.0037

19973,700.005374.93868333330.0971

199713,000.005374.93868333332.0125

19973,000.005374.93868333330.1952

19973,100.005374.93868333330.1791

19974,300.005374.93868333330.0400

199710,700.005374.93868333330.9815

19974,200.005374.93868333330.0478

19971,899.265374.93868333330.4181

19979,500.005374.93868333330.5890

19973,900.005374.93868333330.0753

19981,500.005559.356250.5332

19985,700.005559.356250.0006

19984,000.005559.356250.0787

199813,500.005559.356252.0402

19983,200.005559.356250.1801