Name: MK BahriComments on your feedback:

a. Lacks vs ignore and such as vs including: checking my writing to use them appropriately

b. “available methods for reducing supply chain uncertainty”: checking whether my writing gives any clear-meaning phrases.

2.Research backgrounds

This section explains some study backgrounds such as detections of climate change,

rice statistics and the rice supply chain. In the first section, the past and projections of

climate in Indonesian and West Nusa Tenggara (WNT) are explained. The detection of

climate change in Indonesian and in WNT is also discussed. As this study focuses on

climate change impacts on WNT’s rice supply chain, some statistics about WNT such as

rice production, rice consumption and members of the rice supply chain are explained in the

next section. (Due to two-page maximum, rice statistics in WNT and the pictures are

eliminated).

2.1 Indonesian climate: Past and projections

This section explains historical climate and future climate in Indonesia and WNT

such as precipitation and temperature. This section also explains the statistical evidence of

climate change in Indonesia and in WNT. In order to detect of climate change in Indonesia

and WNT, temperature and rainfall changes between the baseline and the recent period are

statistically compared. If the temperature or rainfall change between the baseline and the

recent period is statistically different, this means that climate change has occurred.

Otherwise, climate change has not occurred.

Statistics show that Indonesia has experienced a significant increase of temperature

and insignificant rainfall change since the mid-20th century. The annual mean of Indonesian

rainfall1 in the baseline period 1950-1979 was about 2832±296 mm/year and in the current

period 1980-2009 was about 2786±272 mm/year. Likewise, the Indonesian mean

temperature during the baseline period 1950-1979 was about 25.6±0.17oC and the mean

1 Data for Indonesian rainfall and temperature is from KNMI climate centre (http://climexp.knmi.nl)1

temperature in the recent period 1980-2009 was about 26±0.160C. The difference of the

annual mean rainfall between the periods is statistically insignificant2, while the difference

of the annual temperature is statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia has experienced

climate change as the temperature change is statistically different between the period 1950-

1979 and the period 1980-2009.

In case of climate in WNT, figure 1 shows the monthly rainfall in two periods; the

baseline period (1951-1980) and the recent period (1981-2010). Among all of the monthly

rainfall, only the rainfall change in April (about 112±43 mm in the baseline and about

153±56 mm in the current period) is significantly different. Conversely, there are

insignificant differences of the rainfall variability between both periods.

Figure 2 shows the monthly mean temperatures in WNT for both periods; the

baseline periods (1974-2003) and the recent period (2004-2013)3. Based on a statistical test,

a change in the March mean temperature is statistically significant (about 26.8±0.7oC in the

baseline and about 27±0.6oC in the current period). However, among all of the monthly

mean temperatures, there are insignificant differences of temperature variability between

both periods. Therefore, WNT has experienced climate change owing to significant changes

in rainfall and temperature.

In the case of the projection of temperature, figure 3 shows that Indonesia is

projected to experience higher temperatures in the future. According to IPCC (2013),

Indonesia is projected to experience an increase of the mean temperature in the range of

0.3-1.2oC by 2035 and in the range of 0.8-2.7 oC by 2100.

As shown in figure 4, Indonesia is projected to experience mixed and relatively

insignificant rainfall change (IPCC, 2013). The total Indonesian rainfall is projected to

change between -1% and 13% by 2046 and between -2 % and 18% by 2100. However,

2 All statistical tests for temperature and rainfall changes are based on t-test (the significance level is 0.05) and statistical tests for temperature and rainfall variability are based on Levene’s tests (the significance level is 0.05)3 The baseline and the recent period of temperature (WNT) is shorter than those periods for rainfall owing to limited data2

southern Indonesia such as Java and WNT is projected to experience the average decrease

of rainfall about -5% by 21004.

Data shows that Indonesia and WNT have experienced climate change. As

agriculture highly depends on climate, climate change could negatively affect agriculture.

Among agriculture products, rice is the staple food and the highest consumed food in WNT,

so that the rice supply chain is highly vulnerable to climate change. In case of WNT, this

region is projected to experience a decrease of rainfall and an increase of temperature. In

other words, compared to other Indonesian regions, the rice supply chain in WNT can be

negatively influenced by two climatic changes; a higher temperature and a lower

precipitation. In conclusion, understanding of the impacts of climate change on the rice

supply chain in WNT should be sought to reduce the negative impacts.

4 Southern Indonesia is influenced by Australian Maritime Monsoon that leads to a lower rainfall while northern Indonesia is influenced by East Asian and Indian Monsoon that lead to a higher precipitation (IPCC, 2013).3

Rice is the staple food for more than a half of the world population (Gnanamanickam,

2009). In the last three decades, the rice production has doubled (because of its new

varieties) and it is predicted that about 5 billion people will depend on rice by 2025

(Gnanamanickam, 2009). Thus, a sustainable increase in the rice production is important

and this is possible to be achieved.

Rice grows well within its optimum temperature (Yoshida, 1981). In general, rice yields are

higher in the rice optimum temperature than either in lower or higher temperatures. In other

words, rice yields gradually increase up to their temperature thresholds, but their yields tend

to decline above the tresholds (Ackerman & Stanton, 2012; Yoshida, 1981).

Since the recent maximum temperature is close to the threshold of rice, the rice is highly

vulnerable to climate change (Devkota, 2011). Again, a higher yield of crops because of a

higher CO2 concentration is clearly limited (Ackerman & Stanton, 2012), since crops

require other inputs to support photosynthesis such as nitrogen and water. In addition, sea

level rise, due to climate change, can inundate farming area, particularly low-lying areas. It

seems that a positive impact of climate change on rice (crop) yields could be negated by its

negative impacts.

Climate change and climate variability can influence the rice supply chain. Lower

precipitation and higher temperatures could reduce rice yields so that the rice supply chain

could not provide sufficient rice supply. As a higher precipitation could increase paddy

moisture (leads to a longer paddy-drying time), the rice supply chain may delay in

supplying rice into market. Therefore, this study will investigate impacts of climate change

on the rice supply chain because of sea level rise, rainfall and temperature changes.

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In order to explore impacts of climate change on the rice supply chain, the system dynamics

approach will be combined with a statistical model and the global climate models (GCMs).

GCMs will provide inputs such as temperature, precipitation and sea level rise, and

statistical models will provide the input of rice yields. Following the simulation of the

system dynamics model, alternatives to reduce the impacts will be assessed.

This study will be conducted in West Nusa Tenggara (WNT) because of some important

reasons:

1. There is a small gap between the national paddy output and the national paddy

demand; about 2 % a year (Hadi & Susilowati, 2011; Lantarsih Widodo, Darwanto,

Lestari, & Paramita, 2011). Because of this, the region should fulfil its rice demand by

its own rice supply. This is important as the WNT’s closest regions, Bali and East

Nusa Tenggara could not supply rice for WNT (these regions do not have appropriate

rice surplus).

2. The region is a main rice supplier of the closest regions in eastern Indonesia such as

East Nusa Tenggara and Bali (Lantarsih et al., 2011). Lantarsih et al. (2011) claim that

rice-surplus provinces should distribute their rice surplus to their closest region to

minimize the distribution cost. Since rice is the staple food (90 % of Indonesian

consume rice, including the poor) and eastern Indonesia is a low-income region,

providing affordable rice is crucial.

3. The Indonesian government has encouraged the region to increase its paddy

production; supporting the national program of rice self-sufficiency. This is because

Java, the greatest rice producer, has experienced a significant land conversion owing to

an increase of population (Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, 2005).

4. In terms of the human development index and the poverty level, this region sits

consecutively in position 32 and 29 among 33 Indonesian provinces (Pemerintah Nusa 5

Tenggara Barat, 2010). This means that the region tends to have low adaptive capacity

to anticipate climate change impacts.

5. Agriculture contributes to about 25% of economic output and 45% of total

employment in this region (BPS NTB, 2010).

6. This region is vulnerable to climate variability, particularly El-Nino (Falcon, Naylor,

Smith, & Burke, 2004). El-Nino has evidently decreased rice production. For instance,

in 1997/1998, 2,000 and 8,000 hectare rice areas experienced drought and harvest

failure consecutively (Yasin, Mansur, Idris, & Suriadi, 2004). Statistics shows that

more than 50,000 hectare rice areas experienced droughts and harvest failures in 2007

and 2010 due to droughts (Dinas Pertanian Nusa Tenggara Barat, 2012).

7. This study can be a model to anticipate climate change impacts on the rice supply

chain in Indonesia.

8. The required data for this research is easier to access as the researcher is from WNT.

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