AAPT CONFERENCEAmanda Fish

Joseph Macke

Karenna Wait

AGENDA

Project Overview Establish Context Risks

Quantitative Qualitative Response Impact

Conclusion

PROJECT OVERVIEW

Scope: Host the American Association of Philosophy Teachers conference at St. Edwards University the week of July 25th-29th 2012.

Project Milestones/Deliverables

• Proposal approved

• Website created

• Fees setRegistration

opens

• Rooms reserved

• Catering set• Staffing coordinated

Attendees register • Attendees

arrives• Successful conference

Project Close

ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

PLANNING

Values People 70% Profit 20% Planet 10%

The main project goals are as follows: Additional revenue stream for ST Edwards Promote St Edwards Aligns with Mission Establishes precedent Provides networking opportunities Creates publicity for CEL and Austin Have fun!

Risk Tolerance/Appetite

WRITING

St Edwards does not have a SOP. Our team recommends they develop one for all projects.

RISK 1: CONSTRUCTION AFFECTS CONFERENCE ATTENDANCE

CONSTRUCTION ON CAMPUS

AFFECT ON CONFERENCE

REDUCTION IN QUALITY AND REVENUE

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Riskp~

(Probability Distribution)

Outcome Variation

Construction

Triangle: Some information

known- dates of conference,

dates of construction and location

ModeWorst case, Best case

CONSTRUCTION- BEFORE

7.9% 52.4% 39.7%

-$2,500 $20,000

-$2

0,0

00

-$1

0,0

00

$0

$1

0,0

00

$2

0,0

00

$3

0,0

00

$4

0,0

00

$5

0,0

00

$6

0,0

00

$7

0,0

00

$8

0,0

00

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Valu

es

x 1

0^

-5

Net Income / Use At Risk

Net Income / Use At Risk

Minimum -$15,904.52Maximum $75,346.37Mean $17,635.67Std Dev $15,960.37Values 10000

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

0.94

-0.32

-0.14

-0.02

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Coefficient Value

Seminar room / quantity in days

Computer labs / quantity in days

lost registration / Quantity

Registration fee / Quantity

Net Income / Use At RiskRegression Coefficients

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

Impact on goal

•Limits space•Increases noise•Decreases aesthetic appeal•Decreases Quality

Impact on culture

•Road closures & walkway detours•Welcoming, safe, attractive image diminishes

Impact on external

stakeholders

•Attendees paying for quality venue•Disappointment in campus grounds

CONSTRUCTION- RESPONSE

12.4% 75.2% 12.5%

-$2,500 $20,000

-$2

0,0

00

-$1

0,0

00

$0

$1

0,0

00

$2

0,0

00

$3

0,0

00

$4

0,0

00

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Valu

es

x 1

0^

-5

Net Income / Use At Risk

Net Income / Use At Risk

Minimum -$15,904.52Maximum $35,665.11Mean $8,581.13Std Dev $9,232.58Values 10000

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

0.87

-0.44

-0.25

-0.03

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Coefficient Value

Seminar room / quantity in days

Computer labs / quantity in days

lost registration / Quantity

Registration fee / Quantity

Net Income / Use At RiskRegression Coefficients

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

STAFFING AVAILABILITY

VOLUNTARY TERMINATION

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Risk p~ (Probability Distribution)

Outcome Variation

Staffing Availability

Triangle: Some information

know- Minimum (0), estimate

max and theoretical

mode of staff needed

Mode Worst case, Best case

STAFFING ISSUE-BEFORE

4.6% 33.6% 61.8%

-$2,500 $20,000

-$3

0,0

00-$2

0,0

00-$1

0,0

00

$0$1

0,0

00$2

0,0

00$3

0,0

00$4

0,0

00$5

0,0

00$6

0,0

00$7

0,0

00$8

0,0

00

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Valu

es

x 1

0^

-5

Net Income / Use At Risk

Net Income / Use At Risk

Minimum -$20,207.49Maximum $78,196.45Mean $25,756.69Std Dev $17,212.82Values 10000

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

0.93

0.33

-0.13

-0.02-0

.20

.00

.20

.40

.60

.81

.0

Coefficient Value

Seminar room / quantity in days

Computer labs / quantity in days

How many we have / Quantity

Registration fee / Quantity

Net Income / Use At RiskRegression Coefficients

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

Impact on goal

•Conference feasibility•Quality diminishes•Success and profit

Impact on culture

•Stress in CEL office•Affect services in other offices

Impact on external

stakeholders

•Alternate location for AAPT

STAFFING ISSUE- RESPONSE

5.2% 63.2% 31.6%

-$2,500 $20,000

-$15

,000

-$10

,000

-$5,0

00

$0$5

,00

0$1

0,0

00

$1

5,0

00

$2

0,0

00

$2

5,0

00

$3

0,0

00

$3

5,0

00

$4

0,0

00

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Valu

es

x 1

0^

-5

Net Income / Use At Risk

Net Income / Use At Risk

Minimum -$12,789.41Maximum $36,588.27Mean $14,233.73Std Dev $10,006.01Values 10000

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

0.97

-0.23

0.12

-0.03-0

.4-0

.20

.00

.20

.40

.60

.81

.0

Coefficient Value

Seminar room / quantity in days

How many we have / Quantity

Computer labs / quantity in days

Registration fee / Quantity

Net Income / Use At RiskRegression Coefficients

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

HILLTOPPER CARD ISSUE

ST. EDWARD’S LOSES MONEY

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Riskp~

(Probability Distribution)

Outcome Variation

Card Issue

Exponential: Lots of

information known with

unusual occurrences-

can mathematically

estimate normal amount spent, will have outliers of users

going over

Mean

Standard deviation, Strange

observation

CARD ISSUE-BEFORE

59.2% 18.2%

-$2,500$20,000

-$25

0,0

00

-$20

0,0

00

-$1

50,0

00

-$1

00,0

00

-$5

0,0

00

$0

$5

0,0

00

$1

00,0

00

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Valu

es

x 1

0^

-5

Net Income / Use At Risk

Net Income / Use At Risk

Minimum -$248,097.42Maximum $75,164.16Mean -$17,502.44Std Dev $43,107.75Values 10000

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

-0.63

-0.63

-0.04

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

Coefficient Value

Computer labs / quantity in days

Registration fee / Quantity

number of attendees who discover no limit = %of attendees / Quantity

ammount spent over expected value $23.5 * 5 = 117.5 / Quantity

Net Income / Use At RiskRegression Coefficients

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

Impact on goal

•Opportunity to overspend•Revenues decrease

Impact on culture

•Financial discrepancies •Disagreements between Bon Appetite and St. Edward’s

Impact on external

stakeholders

•Bon Appetite experiences period of losses

CARD ISSUE-RESPONSE

3.4% 61.3% 35.4%

-$2,500 $20,000

-$1

5,0

00

-$1

0,0

00

-$5

,000

$0$5,0

00

$10

,000

$15

,000

$20

,000

$25

,000

$30

,000

$35,0

00

$40

,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Valu

es x

10^

-5

Net Income / Use At Risk

Net Income / Use At Risk

Minimum -$11,132.57Maximum $36,916.42Mean $15,468.00Std Dev $9,908.84Values 10000

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

0.97

-0.23

-0.03

-0.01

-0.01

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Coefficient Value

number of attendees who discover no limit = %of attendees / Quantity

ammount spent over expected value $23.5 * 5 = 117.5 / Quantity

Seminar room / quantity in days

Computer labs / quantity in days

Registration fee / Quantity

Net Income / Use At RiskRegression Coefficients

@RISK Student VersionFor Academic Use Only

CONCLUSION

Conference was a success!

QUESTIONS?