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เอกสารประกอบการบรรยาย
“รู้จริง ท าได้ ในบังกลาเทศ” Mr. Star Jingkaojai
Director - Commercial, Siam City Cement Bangladesh
วันที่ 14 กันยายน 2561
Bangladesh Economy and Market Update
September 2018
13/09/2018
Star JingkaojaiCommercial and Logistics Director
+8801730015917
+66815669952
2Star Jingkaojai
• ความคาดหวงัในการเขา้ฟังคร้ังน้ี
13/09/2018
3Star Jingkaojai
Star Jingkaojai - Portfolio
Education:
High school – The Prince Royal’s College, Chiangmai Thailand
B.Sc. – Chiangmai University (Hortficulture)
M.B.A.- National University of Singapore
Certificate: IMD Lausanne Switzerland (Leadership Management)
Certificate: Universitat of St. Gallen Switzerland (Business management)
Working:
DuPont Thailand – Market Development
Siam City Cement PLC – Area Sale manager
Holcim Asia – Assistant to Area manager and Board of director Holcim Limited
Siam City Cement Bangladesh – Commercial and Logistics Director
Countries experience:
Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India,
Bhutan, Indonesia, Philippines, Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Slovakia, Switzerland etc…..
To be continue
Fiend of experience:
Marketing and Sales, Logistics, M&A, Change Management, BPO - IT
4Star Jingkaojai
5Star Jingkaojai
Bangladesh Summary
• GDP growth around 7-8% boost from remittance inflows
from labor working in middle east
13/09/2018
Strengths:
• Large and young population, private
consumption accounts for 75% GDP
• Good relationship with India and
China increasing trade and
investment inflow
Weakness:
• Very poor country, low literacy levels
and underdeveloped infrastructure
• Depend on oil imports
Opportunities:
• Goldman Sachs has named the
country one of the ”Next Eleven” big
emerging market
• Rising foreign investment from India
Threats:
• Natural disasters – impact of global
climate change
• Rising population density – limit land
and resources
6Star Jingkaojai
Main export and import partners
13/09/2018
Main Export
Destination
% of Total Main Import
Origins
% of Total
USA 18.0 China 24.1
Germany 14.6 India 15.0
UK 11 Singapore 6.4
France 6.1 Japan 4.3
Spain 6 Indonesia 3.2
Source: BMI, Bangladesh Bank
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43.66
57.75
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
2016-17 2017-18 Est.
Import FY '17 vs. FY '18 [USD bio]
2.9
8
3.4
6
3.1
9
3.5
9
4.0
2
3.6
5
4.1
6
3.4
5
4.0
5
3.8
7
3.9
4
3.3
0
4.0
0
4.0
5
3.8
5
4.3
7
4.5
7
4.1
7
5.0
0
4.3
7 5.9
2
5.5
5
6.3
5
5.5
5
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Jul'16
Aug'16
Sep'16
Oct'16
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Feb'17
Mar'17
Apr'17
May'17
Jun'17
Jul'17
Aug'17
Sep'17
Oct'17
Nov'17
Dec'17
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
May'18
Jun'18
Import Trend [USD bio]
1.0
1
1.1
8
1.0
6
1.0
1
0.9
5
0.9
6
1.0
1
0.9
4
1.0
8
1.0
9
1.2
7
1.2
1
1.1
2 1.4
2
0.8
6 1.1
6
1.2
1
1.1
6
1.3
8
1.1
5
1.3
0
1.3
3
1.5
0
1.3
8
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Jul'16
Aug'16
Sep'16
Oct'16
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Feb'17
Mar'17
Apr'17
May'17
Jun'17
Jul'17
Aug'17
Sep'17
Oct'17
Nov'17
Dec'17
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
May'18
Jun'18
Remittance Trend [USD bio]
12.77 14.98
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
2016-17 2017-18
Remittance FY '17 vs. FY '18 [USD bio]
34.72 36.67
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
2016-17 2017-18
Export FY '17 vs. FY '18 [USD bio]
2.5
3
3.2
9
2.2
6
2.6
7
2.8
8
3.0
9
3.2
9
2.7
1
3.1
0
2.7
8
3.0
7
3.0
6
2.9
9
3.6
4
2.0
3 2.8
4
3.0
6
3.3
5
3.4
1
3.0
7
3.0
5
2.9
5
3.3
2
2.9
4
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Jul'16
Aug'16
Sep'16
Oct'16
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Feb'17
Mar'17
Apr'17
May'17
Jun'17
Jul'17
Aug'17
Sep'17
Oct'17
Nov'17
Dec'17
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
May'18
Jun'18
Export Trend [USD bio]
13/09/2018
Current Macroeconomic Environment- Trade deficit too high to be recovered through Remittance
Growth 5.7%
Growth 32.3%
Growth 17.3%
Export Import Remittance
Export+Re
mittance-
Import
36.67 57.75 14.98 -6.1
8Star Jingkaojai
Monetary Policy
• Consumer price inflation around 5-6 %
• The central bank’s attempt to maintain currency stability
• 1 USD= 83 BDT
13/09/2018
9Star Jingkaojai13/09/2018
Current socio-economic situation (1/4)- 11th national parliamentary election knocking the door
Overview on upcoming elections
• An tentative voting date was announced as 27 December by AMA Muhith.
The Election Commission has moved to list 40,000 polling stations for 104.2
million voters ahead of the 11th parliamentary election.
• Large investors such as China, the biggest trade partner with $15 billion
exports to Bangladesh, along with other development partners wants to see
the upcoming general elections “smooth and stable”.
Impact on banks
• During general elections unrest disrupts import and export activities and
banks witness a large number of irregular transactions. Economic growth
may slow down as people transfer money overseas and currency reserve
and remittance also takes a hit.
• Finance minister has advised banks to be cautious as money will be more in
circulation, especially black money.
• Consequently, BB is likely to lower the ceiling for loan-deposit ratio, which
stands at 85% currently.
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Current socio-economic situation (2/4)
13/09/2018
General p-p inflation falls slightly to 5.48% from 5.51%
• The decline was on the back of the drop in food inflation to
5.97% from 6.18% in July.
• General inflation rate at urban level and rural level both
declined.
• Food inflation at urban level fell to 7.39% from 8.08% in
August. However, non food inflation witnessed a slight
increase to 5.04% from 4.5%.
• At rural level, food inflation remained same at 5.34% while
non-food inflation increased to 4.51% from 4.49% in
August.Source: https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/inflation-eases-to-
548pc-in-august-on-food-price-1536240486
Aug remittance flow rises 7%
• Expatriates sent remittances amounting to USD 1.41b in
August, up by USD 92.87 million from previous month
which was USD 1.32b.
• Last August it was USD1.42b.
• The depreciation of the BDT has also contributed to the
rise in remittances.
• Also, a series of measures taken by the central bank to
formalize the transfer of remittances as opposed to the
illegal ‘hundi’ system has contributed to remittance growth.Source: https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/aug-remittance-
flow-rises-70pc-1536120657
11Star Jingkaojai13/09/2018
Balance of Payment negative after 7 years
• Bangladesh's overall BoP posted USD 885m deficit
during the last fiscal year (FY 18), compared with a
surplus of USD 3.2b in FY 2017.
• The deficit in current account was mainly due to high
import payables along with the shortfall in the
primary income from services.
• Imports for mega projects such as Rooppur PP is
among the contributing factors for the deficit in CA.
• Imports of food, capital machinery and cotton
increased beyond the norm.
• During 2017-18, import surged by over 25 per cent
while exports grew by only 6.0 per cent.Source: https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/bop-hits-
negative-territory-in-seven-years-1535946104
Bangladesh attracts nearly USD3.0b FDI in 2017-18
fiscal year
• The country's gross FDI inflows stood at USD
2,798m in FY18 vs USD 3,038m in FY17.
• Net inflow has also declined vs FY17, standing at
USD1,583m vs USD1,653m.
• Inadequate basic infrastructure has long been
blamed for the impeding FDI.Source: https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/bangladesh-
attracts-nearly-3b-fdi-in-2017-18-fiscal-year-1536149782
Current socio-economic situation (3/4)
12Star Jingkaojai13/09/2018
Interest rate spread falls to 4.31% in July
• Interest rate spread in the country's banking sector
decreased in July, as the commercial banks slashed
their interest rates further on lending than deposit,
with WA spread falling to 4.31% in July vs 4.45% in
June.
• BAB earlier requested its member banks to bring
down the interest rates on both lending and deposit
at 9.0% and 6.0% respectively from July 01, with the
BB monitoring it strictly.
• Spread may come down to 4% in 2-3 months.
• Credit demands may fall ahead of the election
putting downward pressure in lending rates.Source:
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/bangladesh/interest-
rate-spread-falls-to-431pc-in-july-1535774644
Current socio-economic situation (4/4)
13Star Jingkaojai13/09/2018
Project Update
Padma bridge to miss deadline
• 63.5% of the main bridge construction was done by June.
• Progress has been lagging due to poor implementation rate,
especially in the river training job with Chinese Sino hydro
doing the construction.
• Out of BDT 121.33b allocations, BDT 69.08b was spent on
the main bridge construction work until June.
• Total of BDT 147.92b funds, or over half the total cost of the
bridge project, until last FY2018.
• Fresh new deadline is expected to be announced by
consultants based on progress reports by contractors.Source:https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/padma-bridge-may-
miss-deadline-1534046313
Dhk-Ctg Expressway project: Cost soars to BDT 335b for
huge land acquisition
• The cost for land acquisition in the project is 68% higher
than the cost of its civil work and main structure component.
• Excluding land acquisition, cost is estimated at BDT 199.82b
• Cost to be 9 times higher than Dhk-Ctg four lane project
completed last year at a cost of BDT 38b.
• The project will be a six-lane one on both surface and
elevated levels consisting of seven interchanges.Source: https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/dhaka-ctg-
expressway-project-cost-soars-to-tk-335b-for-huge-land-acquisition-
1534136382
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E-Commerce Industry in Bangladesh –Still at nascent stage but with great potential
Drivers for growth
• Meteoric penetration of internet
• Young population
• Smartphone penetration
• Worsening traffic conditions
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บิมสเทค คือ ความร่วมมือหลากหลายสาทางวชิาการและเศรษฐกิจ
13/09/2018
BIMSTEC
ความรว่มมอืภายใตก้รอบ BIMSTEC มจีดุเดน่ คอื
เป็นเวทเีชือ่มประสานนโยบาย Look East ของกลุ่ม
ประเทศเอเชยีใต ้กบันโยบาย Look West ของไทย
และเป็นกลไกหน่ึงทีส่่งเสรมิโอกาสดา้นการคา้ การ
ลงทนุ และการทอ่งเทีย่วระหว่างไทยกบัภูมภิาคเอเชยีใต ้
โดยมวีตัถปุระสงคห์ลกั คอื การสรา้งความเจรญิทาง
เศรษฐกจิและสงัคมในภูมภิาคทีต่ ัง้อยู่บนพืน้ฐานของ
ความเทา่เทยีมกนั และส่งเสรมิผลประโยชนร์ว่มกนั
ทางดา้นเศรษฐกจิ สงัคม เทคโนโลย ีและความความ
ชว่ยเหลอืระหว่างประเทศสมาชกิ ในรปูของการ
ฝึกอบรม รวมถงึการคน้ควา้วจิยั และการกระชบัความ
รว่มมอืระหว่างประเทศเพือ่ใชป้ระโยชนจ์ากภาคกสกิร
รมและอตุสาหกรรม การขยายการคา้และการลงทนุ
ตลอดจนปรบัปรงุการสือ่สารและการคมนาคม เพือ่
ยกระดบัความเป็นอยู่ของประชากรในภูมภิาค และ
ส่งเสรมิความรว่มมอืทีใ่กลช้ดิกบัองคก์ารระหว่าง
ประเทศ
16Star Jingkaojai
SAARC = South Asian Association for regional Cooperation
• Members;
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Srilanka
13/09/2018
17Star Jingkaojai
ตลาดน้ี ใหญ่ขนาดไหน มีประชากรเท่าไหร่
13/09/2018
• Bangladesh 170 mio
• Surrounding 150 mio
Total prospect population is 320 mio
18Star Jingkaojai
Things to consider when invest in Bangladesh
• Politics
Stable – PM Sheikh Hasina expecting to win general election,
held on Dec 27, 2108
Close relationship with India to balance out China rising
influence
13/09/2018
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed
under CC BY-NC-ND This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC
BY-NC-SA
19Star Jingkaojai
Things to consider when invest in Bangladesh
• Politics
Stable – PM Sheikh Hasina expecting to win general election,
held on Dec 27, 2108
Close relationship with India to balance out China rising
influence
• Policy of Govt
Focus on developing basic infrastructure, transport,
communication, technology and energy
• Risk:
Religious and social tensions are raising
13/09/2018
20Star Jingkaojai
Things to consider when invest in Bangladesh
• Product type
Consumer
Industrial
• Market
Domestic consumption?
Export from Bangladesh to Halal countries?
• Form of investment
Import export
Put up manufacturing unit
Join venture – Finding the right partner!!!!
13/09/2018
21Star Jingkaojai
Things to consider when invest in Bangladesh
• Taxation
AIT
VAT
Duty
Tax advisor
• Monetary policy
Cross boarder money transfer
• Banking system
• Law and Order
• Exit strategy
13/09/2018
22Star Jingkaojai
• Q&A
13/09/2018
