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A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages: application to the MARS database. Roberto Confalonieri, Fabio Micale, Giampiero Genovese [email protected]. R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005. MARS-STAT section in EC Context. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages:
application to the MARS database
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Roberto Confalonieri, Fabio Micale, Giampiero [email protected]
Court of Auditors
Economic and Social Committee
Committee of the Regions
Council of Ministers
European Parliament
EuropeanCommission
Court of Justice
IPSC
Commissioner for Research
EI IES ITUIRMM IPTSIHCP
DG
ENTR
DG
ENV
DG
RTD
DG
INFSO JRCDG
SANCOEUROSTAT
DG RELEX
ECHO
DG
AGRI
AGRIFISH Unit (MARS STAT)
DG
MARS-STAT section in EC Context
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Mars Crops YieldMars Crops YieldForecasting SystemForecasting System
Met
eoro
logi
cal
Met
eoro
logi
cal
Mon
itorin
gM
onito
ring
Crop
Mod
elCr
op M
odel
Stat
isti
cal
Stat
isti
cal
Scen
ario
s An
alys
isSc
enar
ios
Anal
ysis
Vege
tatio
nVe
geta
tion
Mon
itorin
gM
onito
ring
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
EC crop yield forecasting system
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Calibration of WOFOST for rice.1(Confalonieri and Bocchi, 2005. European Journal of Agronomy. Paper in press)
Calibration ValidationJE 2 2JM 3 4I 2 2
Number of datasetsGroup of varieties
3 groups of rice varieties:
Japonica type early JE
medium late JM
Indica type I
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Calibration of WOFOST for rice.2
y = 1.0292x - 0.0218R2 = 0.9906
0
5
10
15
20
0 5 10 15 20
measured (tAGB ha-1)
sim
ulat
ed (t
AG
B h
a-1)
Validation results - an example: JE varieties
Calibration results – an example: JM varieties
0
4
8
12
16
10/6 9/7 7/8 5/9 4/10
Date
Abov
egro
und
biom
ass
(tAG
B h
a-1)
measured
CropSyst
WOFOST
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Years
Yiel
d (t
ha-1)
Official
Simulated
Hp: Correspondence of model overestimations and years where high sterility verified
High sterility Low sterility
Calibration of WOFOST for rice.3
Calibration of WOFOST for rice.4
After the calibration of crop model parameters, WOFOST was generally able to accurately simulate rice growth and development
but for some years,we noticed significant overestimation.
During these years, particular meteorological conditions occurred:
Cold air irruptionsduring the pre-flowering period
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Cold air irruptions in Northern Italy
Although the summer presents typical Mediterranean features, the proximity to the arctic area, may sometimes expose to summer
cold air irruptions able to influence the young panicle development
The induced spikelet sterility may, in some cases, reach values between 35 - 50% depending on the different varieties sensitivity.
They do not cause higher sterility percentages because of their duration: usually no more than 2-3 days
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Cold air irruptions in Northern ItalyThe last important episode occurred on 12 July 2000
minimum air temperature = 7-8°C (sterility = 25-50%)
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Cold air irruptions in Northern Italy
The frequency is about 1 event every 5-6 years
(minimum air temperature during the period 1976-2001)
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
10-lug 14-lug 18-lug 22-lug 26-lug 30-lug 03-ago 07-ago 11-ago
Date
Min
imum
dai
ly te
mpe
ratu
re (°
C)
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
At the moment, simulation models...
Actually crop growth models used for rice simulations do not consider yield losses caused by cold damages during the pre-flowering period and this may lead, in some cases, to enormous yield overestimations.
In some years (when particular meteorological conditions occur), models have to be considered inadequate tools.
Crop modellers are working to improve the simulation of physiological processes which are already rather well simulated but at the moment they are not including in their models processes which have a big influence on yield and which are still considered unrelated to crop simulators.
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
…WARM
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
In this presentation
•WARM features and peculiarities will be briefly exposed
•Simulation of the yield gap caused by cold air irruptions during the pre-flowering period for:
•4 years (1991, 1993, 1994, 2000)
•11 grids (50×50 km) north Italian
•Sowing date: 27 April
•High sensitive rice variety
WARM
Crop growth model
The MARS database
TRIS(floodwater effect on T)
STEFI(spikelet sterility
model)???
T.RI.S.(Confalonieri et al., 2005. Ecological Modelling, 183, 269-280)
TRIS is a mechanistic model funded on the resolution of the energy balance equation adopting as storage term the heat
accumulation into the water.
It needs as input only maximum and minimum air daily temperatures. If other data (e.g. global solar radiation) are
available, the model can use measured values instead of estimated ones.
It computes water temperature and 10 series of air temperatures (one for each 10cm air layer starting from the water surface)
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
11-20 May
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Wat
er te
mpe
ratu
re (°
C)
11-20 June
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Wat
er te
mpe
ratu
re (°
C)
11-20 July
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Wat
er te
mpe
ratu
re (°
C)
11-20 August
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Wat
er te
mpe
ratu
re (°
C)
T.RI.S. – some results
Surface water temperature for the second decade of May, June, July and August(Opera (MI), 2002)
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
The model for sterility induced by low temperatures is based on two principles:
•daily stress inducing sterility is computed adding hourly differences between a threshold temperature and hourly temperatures simulated by TRIS at the height of the developing panicle
•total stress is obtained by adding daily values weighted by a factor (bell factor) which represents the different plant sensitivity during the panicle initiation – heading period
STE.FI. – a model for spikelet sterility
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
headDay
headDayi
GDDGDD
hhid
i
eTTSterility22
224
1,
2
211
21
bell factor...
STE.FI. – a model for spikelet sterility
hourly stresses
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
497 597 697 797 897 997 1097
Developing stage (GDD)
bell
fact
or
high bell factorlow bell factor
STE.FI. – the bell factor
γ
δ is used to fix the maximum value to 1
γ
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
CGMS WARM - Results.1(high observed sterility: 1993, 2000)
Grid50_etrs.shp00 - 0.10.1 - 0.20.2 - 0.30.3 - 0.40.4 - 0.50.5 - 1
Nuts0_etrs.shpNuts2_etrs.shp
N
EW
S
1993
Grid50_etrs.shp00 - 0.10.1 - 0.20.2 - 0.30.3 - 0.40.4 - 0.50.5 - 1
Nuts0_etrs.shpNuts2_etrs.shp
N
EW
S
2000
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
CGMS WARM - Results.2(low observed sterility: 1991, 1994)
Grid50_etrs.shp00 - 0.10.1 - 0.20.2 - 0.30.3 - 0.40.4 - 0.50.5 - 1
Nuts0_etrs.shpNuts2_etrs.shp
N
EW
S
20021994
Grid50_etrs.shp00.001 - 0.10.1 - 0.20.2 - 0.30.3 - 0.40.4 - 0.50.5 - 1
Nuts0_etrs.shpNuts2_etrs.shp
N
EW
S
19971991
R. Confalonieri – A yield gap indicator for rice cold damages - Bologna, 15 June 2005
Conclusions:
The yield gap computed basing on the spikelet sterility and on the influence of floodwater on vertical thermal profile has shown to be a powerful tool for the improvement of the precision of rice yield
forecasts
All the aspects with a high influence on yield must be taken into account and this is why other modules are currently under
development (e.g. for blast)
It is necessary that all the developed modules are compatible with the MARS database (only the already available input variable
collected at similar spatial scale)