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A view on steel demand for offshore wind power
London, 24.05.2013
Platts 9th Steel Markets Europe
Speaker introduction
2
Speaker
• Nikolaj Ager Hamann
Email: [email protected]
Direct line: +45 9951 6236
• Business Analyst, Group Procurement
DONG Energy
Nesa Allé 1
2820 Gentofte
Denmark
Agenda
3
1. Introduction to DONG Energy
2. The opportunities in the offshore wind market
from a steel perspective
3. The challenge to be overcome to unlock the
potential
DONG Energy at a glance
4
DONG Energy is market leading in offshore wind
5
150
466
802
995
Installed capacity in 2011
MW operated
Source: DONG Energy and 4COffshore
Future trend
• All of the major players have a
pipeline of projects. Many of
which have first power in the
foreseeable future.
• DONG Energy reached 1,7 GW in
2012.
• DONG Energy expects to reach
6,5 GW of offshore wind power by
2020.
Agenda
6
1. Introduction to DONG Energy
2. The opportunities in the offshore wind
market from a steel perspective
3. The challenge to be overcome to unlock the
potential
Port Offshore substation Substructure WTG
The role of steel in offshore wind power
73.700
2.000
Total Foundations WTG towers
22.200
49.500
Substations
7
Steel required per wind farm element for Anholt wind farm
Tons
Source: DONG Energy
Steel makes up a substantial part of the foundation cost
8
Source: DONG Energy
Steel
50%
Fabrication
50%
Foundation design and DONG Energy's expertise
9
Source:
• The jacket designs are
believed to be the
preferred foundation
designs for new projects
at deeper water depths.
• The technology still has to
be proven for offshore
wind energy.
• DONG Energy are
working intensely with
optimizing the jacket
design with suppliers and
partners.
• DONG Energy has
extensive experience with
the design and performance
of Monopiles.
• The experience is an
advantage when we work
with our suppliers on
optimizing the design
further.
• But it also means that it
takes a very convincing
business case for a switch
to jacket foundations.
• Monopiles are believed to
be uneconomical when
water depths increase, but
as monopile designs are
improved the shifting point
is pushed.
DONG Energy
Monopiles Jackets
The latest generation of monopiles requires large plates
10
Larger monopiles means larger steel plates
• For one of our later projects the plate dimensions reached:
• Thickness: 110 mm
• Width 3,9 meters
• Pile diameter: 7,5 meters – length 23,6 meters
• Total plate weight: 32 tons
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0,0
6
0,0
64
0,0
67
0,0
7
0,0
73
0,0
76
0,0
79
0,0
82
0,0
85
0,0
88
0,0
91
0,0
94
0,0
97
0,1
0,1
03
0,1
07
0,1
1
Accumulated MP mass included in thickness limit Thickness in mm
11
The amount of steel required per MW offshore wind capacity
215
250
165
205
125
181
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
DONG Energy offshore foundations
Ton of steel plates per MW installed
Source: DONG Energy
Weighted
average
Key observations
• For the most proximate part of the
DONG Energy offshore wind
pipeline 181 tons of steel have
been required for each MW of
turbine capacity installed.
• The foundation weight depends
heavily on the soil conditions,
water depth and sea conditions of
the specific site.
• We do not see that the
foundations get lighter in the
future as there is a trend for
turbines to get bigger and water
depths to get deeper.
MW and steel potential by 2025
12
Source: IHS Emerging Energy Research and DONG Energy
7,1
2014 2015 2016
3,5
2020 2025 2019
5,8
2023
2,9
2018
5,0
2022
2,8
2017 2024 2021
3,1
6,6
5,8 6,2
7,4 7,7
European offshore wind capacity added: 2014-2025
Giga Watt
2023
1,3
2022
1,4
2021
1,3
2020
1,1
2019
1,0
2018
1,2
2017
1,0
2016
0,9
2015
0,6
2014
0,6
2013
0,5
2012
0,5
Estimated steel orders for offshore wind foundations: 2012-2023
Million tons
Agenda
13
1. Introduction to DONG Energy
2. The opportunities in the offshore wind market
from a steel perspective
3. The challenge to be overcome to unlock the
potential
0 100 200 300 400 500
CHP
Coal fired
Natural gas CCGT
Nuclear
Small hydro
Large hydro
Geothermal - flash plant
Wind - onshore
Municipal solid waste
Landfill gas
Biomass - incineration
Geothermal - binary plant
Biomass - gasification
PV - c-Si tracking
PV - thin film
Biomass - anaerobic digestion
PV - c-Si
STEG - tower & heliostat w/storage
STEG - parabolic trough
Wind - offshore
Fuel cells
STEG - parabolic trough + storage
STEG - tower & heliostat
STEG - LFR
Marine - tidal
Marine - wave
LCOE BNEF EU Carbon Forecast Q1 2013 Central Scenario Q4 2012 Central Scenario
-7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-14%
-
-
-
$1,058/MWh, -
$861 /MWh, -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-17%
-
-
-2%
-
-
-
The cost of energy challenge
14
DONG Energy
2020 target
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Bloomberg New Energy Finance – Levelised Cost Of Energy
USD/MWh
DONG Energy's business model and long term pricing
15
The new model and the implication on
the steel industry
Source: DONG Energy
On a range of the newer offshore wind
projects DONG Energy has formed Joint
Ventures with institutional investors.
This development has been a key enabler
of the recent growth in the market, and will
continue to be a very important source for
funding.
The partner are involved at an early stage
of the project and the firmer the business
case is the easier it is to attract them.
This in turn means that DONG Energy
requests price certainty ever further into
the future.
The steel industry can support the offshore
wind power growth by offering fixed prices
for longer periods of time.