The Asia Institute

Report for the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

A Survey of the Nuclear Safety Infrastructure in

Southeast Asia and

Prospects for the Future

May 1, 2010

Emanuel Pastreich, Ph.D. Sergey Butakov, Ph.D. Michel Delorme, Ph.D.

Matthew CalabriaHu DiePamarthy Likith Srinivasa Ngoc Bui YantiMargaret Lopulisa Mook Phipatseritham

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Contents:

Introduction

Frontrunners for Nuclear Power:

Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Philippines

Possible Future interest in Nuclear Power

SingaporeBurma

Countries with low probability of developing nuclear energy

CambodiaEast TimorLaos

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INTRODUCTION

The nuclear renaissance that is sweeping the globe has had a tremendous impact in Southeast Asia and at present there are intense discussions about possible nuclear power plants throughout the region. Nuclear power at present is not used in any nation in Southeast Asia, although some nations have quite a sophisticated command of the technologies required for nuclear power and in some cases experimental reactors. Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand have announced plans to construct nuclear power plants. Malaysia and the Philippines have indicated considerable interest in nuclear power at a governmental level. Although the exact order of the development of nuclear power remains unclear, we can expect that the number of nations in the region with nuclear power plants will increase significantly in the next decade.

Vietnam is pursuing a plan to introduce nuclear power within the next decade and Indonesia, although the opening of a bidding process has been delayed, has similar intentions. Thailand’s government has also announced plans to establish nuclear power by 2020, although recent political uncertainty has raised some questions as to the timeline. Malaysia as well included plans for “exploration of nuclear energy” in 2008 as part of the national budget.1

Although there has been an interest in nuclear power in the region since the 1970s, and even efforts in the Philippines to build a nuclear power plant that were unsuccessful, the momentum is building for nuclear power today on an unprecedented level. Sophisticated nuclear regulatory agencies are in place in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia the Philippines and Singapore that provide the regulation necessary to make such a project possible.

Moreover, we find that energy demand is steadily rising in the region and the choices for energy supplies are problematic. Coal and oil are not easily accessible for all counties and have a destructive impact on the environment. Although some regions have access to natural gas, its usage to meet rising demands is uncertain. Moreover, such alternative energy sources as hydroelectric power have limited potential and possibly catastrophic environmental impact. With demand for electricity increasing at a rate over 7% a year for the region, there are few other possible sources that offer the low-carbon benefits of nuclear power.

1 Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australia, The Institute for Strategic Studies, p. 5.

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As a result, the regulatory bodies of the major Southeast Asian nations have increased their budgets and are training an increasing number of experts in anticipation of a new nuclear world, even if their governments have not explicitly offered national plans for the building of nuclear reactors. That development means that nuclear safety and regulation will be an increasingly critical question for the region going forward as each nation attempts to formulate new policies to correspond to a new energy source with complex security dimensions.

Moreover, the Republic of Korea is poised to play a significant role in the new industries related to nuclear power, including the transportation of fuel, the construction and maintenance of nuclear power plants and planning for nuclear power on a national and regional level. After Korea’s KEPCO power successfully won a contract for the United Arab Emirates nuclear power plants in December, 2009, Korea has increased its visibility internationally for its ability in the nuclear field, with a corresponding rise in interest internationally in what technology Korea can provide. Korean technologies have been given serious consideration in the case of Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia that suggest an increasing role for Korea in the region as nuclear power expands its role in the next two decades.

VIETNAM REPORT

Section 1 The energy picture

Energy Resources and Usage

Current and future energy resources and usage: oil, natural gas, water, wind, etc.

(Current and future mix; anticipated increase in electrical usage)

Vietnam has emerged as an important regional producer of oil and natural

gas in Southeast Asia. The country has boosted exploration activities,

allowed greater foreign company involvement in the oil and natural gas

sectors, and introduced market reforms aimed at strengthening Vietnam’s

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energy industry. While these efforts have helped Vietnam expand

production of oil and natural gas, domestic consumption of these

resources has also increased as a result of rapid economic growth. The

country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by an average 7.3

percent over the last ten years. Half of Vietnam’s domestic energy

consumption comes from hydropower (42 percent), natural gas (37

percent), coal (17 percent), and oil (4%). 2

There are a number of power plants planned or proposed in Vietnam. The

government has plans to increase Vietnam’s total installed generating

capacity to 81 GW by 2020, or 9 times the 2004 capacity. As part of this

effort, Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) has outlined plans to build 74 new

power stations by 2020. Of these, 48 are slated to hydroelectric facilities,

which have led some in the Vietnamese government to express concern

about the country’s reliance on hydropower. Among the planned facilities

is the Song La plant, which at 2,400 MW will make it Vietnam’s largest

hydroelectric power station when completed. To diversify the country’s

electricity supply, Vietnam has reportedly considered adding nuclear

power to its generation mix.

As of 5 May 2009, the government of Vietnam approved the Vietnam

Renewable Energy Development Projected funded by the World Bank.

This project aims at increasing the supply of electricity to the national

grid from renewable sources on a commercially, environmentally and

socially sustainable basis.

The country’ s first major wind power plant will be built next year in the

Tay Nguyen (Central Highlands) province of Lam Dong. The US$57

2 US Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics and Analysis

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Vietnam/Background.html>

5

million Cau Dat wind power plant, to be located in Xuan Truong

Commune of Truong Tho village in Da Lat city, will be built by Cavico

Transport Corporation in the build-operate-own (BOO) form. The plant’s

20 wind turbines are expected to generate a designed power capacity of

30 megawatts a month. A survey by Cavico shows Lam Dong Province

has two areas with high potential for developing wind power plants, the

Lang Bian plateau and the Cau Dat tea-processing factory. The

committee said the plant is due to be running by June 2011 when it will

supply some 90 million kWh of power a year. The advantage of wind

power is that it needs no fuel to operate, proves environmentally friendly

and is easy to install.

Production, consumption: fees, environmental effect, etc.

Vietnam’s electricity output in the first quarter of 2009 was up 4.03 per

cent year-on- year at 18.6 billion kWh, according to the Electricity

Regulation Agency of Viet Nam.3 The State-owned Electricity of Viet

Nam (EVN) Group supplied 65.1 per cent of the total output. The Viet

Nam Oil and Gas Group (Petro Vietnam) was second with 11.8 per cent,

and several build-operate-transfer projects followed with 9.3 per cent.

Viet Nam imported as much as 500MW of electricity from China and the

rest was supplied by the Coal and Mineral Industries Group and small

hydro-power plants. To overcome the energy shortage, EVN has called

for investing in hydro-electric and thermal plants, improving generation

at existing plants, and upgrading transmission lines.

As of 1 March 2009, the average price per kilowatt-hour charged in

Vietnam was 948.5 Vietnam Dong, which is equivalent to 8.2 cents. This

3 Electricity production rises, but shortfalls still loom in dry season, 13 April 2009, Vietnam

News, <http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/showarticle.php?num=04ECO130409>

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price went up from 862 Vietnam Dong per kilowatt-hour and 900

Vietnam Dong per kilowatt-hour for household charge and manufacturer

charge respectively. It was claimed that the increase in electricity price is

necessary for foreign electricity firms to build more plants in Vietnam

and to bring Vietnam’s price in line with those in Thailand, Singapore,

Indonesia and Malaysia.4

Hydropower contributes a substantial portion to the overall power of

Vietnam.

Environmental impact:

Nonetheless, this construction of large hydropower dams has raised a

number of issues in relation to environmental safety. The lower Mekong

area, which includes Vietnam, also has high potential for hydropower.

The construction of dams for hydropower plants may result in a number

of negative consequences on the environment. The nutrient sediments

may be trapped in the dam instead of flowing to the plains, biodiversity is

threatened, climate changes may occur in form of unexpectedly

devastating floods or severe droughts. 5

Section 2 Nuclear power in context

4 Vietnam electricity price hikes, 18 February 2009, Straits Times

<http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/SE

%2BAsia/Story/STIStory_339884.html>

5 Pomeranz, Kenneth, The Great Himalayan Watershed: Water Shortages, Mega-Projects and

Environmental Politics in China, India and Southeast Asia, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan

Focus

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Nuclear usage in the country Historical, cultural and

political elements that influence the pursuit of nuclear power.

Vietnam’s nuclear history dates back to the 1960s, when a

250kWt pool-type TRIGA Mk-II research reactor were built in

the central highlands city of Dalat, then in anti-communist South

Vietnam, under the US Atoms for Peace Program. The US also

provided HUE fuel for the reactor, which reached its first

criticality in 1963 and was then operated for training, research

and radioisotope production. However, the research program

was interrupted by the war between 1968 and 1975, when

research was suspended and the reactor was shut down. As the

war ended with North Vietnamese forces advancing, the US

launched a clandestine operation to remove unused fuel rods

from the reactor, which were then transported back to the US.

The reconstruction of Dalat reactor commenced between 1982

and 1984 with the assistance of the Soviet Union. Vietnam was

able to restore and upgrade the reactor to a 500kWt Russian

VVR-M design. It was able to train a group of scientific and

technical staff to develop nuclear technology for use in the

agriculture and medical sectors. Dala reactor, which is light-

water moderated and cooled, remained Vietnam’s only reactor.

Vietnam’s interest in developing nuclear power began in the

early 1980s, coinciding with the upgrade of the Dalat reactor.

Early studies were conducted during the 1980s. It was in 1995

that the rationale for a civil nuclear energy program was

assessed. The study recommended the introduction of nuclear

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power by 2015 when electricity need would reach more than 100

billion kWh. Several feasibility studies have been undertaken,

which were culminated in a formal decision, the “Strategy for

Vietnam’s Electricity Development 2004 - 2010,” by Prime

Minister Phan Van Khai in 2004. The goals of this decision are

to explore, research and prepare facilities for the first nuclear

power plant in Vietnam.

In terms of political influence on nuclear usage in Vietnam, there

are few political obstacles to the implementation of the master

plan on nuclear power plant. The one-party system is run by a

collective leadership comprising Vietnamese Communist Party

(VCP) General Secretary Nong Duc Manh, Prime Minister

Nguyen Tan Dung and President Nguyen Minh Triet, who are

strongly in favor of developing nuclear energy. Also, the

National Assembly – a 493-member body – is almost exclusively

composed of VCP members. This enables the VCP a virtual

monopoly on decision-making.

Present and future nuclear usage in the country especially

nuclear power plants

Currently, radiation applications are utilized for medical,

agricultural and infrastructural fields. The Dalat reactor is

served as a research facility for the aforementioned areas. The

radiotherapy is used in cancer treatment, while other nuclear

applications are also used for medical purposes such as

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sterilization of medical products like surgery gloves, syringes,

needles and graft tissues.

Recently, the government of Vietnam announced that the country

is to establish four nuclear power plants and the government

planned to operate the first nuclear power plant in Ninh Thuan

province by 2020. The National Assembly, the country’s

lawmaking body, approved a resolution to build the first two

nuclear power plants. The pursuit of nuclear power by Vietnam

is explained to satisfy the increasing demand for power of the

nation. It is claimed that Vietnam has been mainly relying on

fossil fuel that may be used up in some decades. This imposes a

great concern about the potential impact power outages on

foreign direct investment into the country. It is also predicted

that a shortage of electricity supply could occur as early as 2010

and certainly by 2015, leaving Vietnam more dependent on

electricity imported from China and Laos. Also, the Ministry of

Industry forecasted that electricity demand would continue to

rise by 17-22% annually over the 2010 – 2025 period.

Meanwhile, external energy experts argued that an annual

increase in energy demand of 12% is more realistic. However,

such modest rise represents a significant growth in energy

demand in Vietnam.

Public opinion: The pros and cons of nuclear usage in the

country

The announcement of government on setting up four nuclear

power plants has heated a debate amongst the pundit in Vietnam.

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There are opinions agreeing with this policy, stating that it is

necessary for the development of the country. “ The National

Assembly’s move means the plants will definitely be built,” said

Mr Tan, the director of the Vietnam Nuclear Energy Institute.

Nevertheless, there are views arguing that it is not the right time

for establishing nuclear power plants. A number of scientists,

including the Vietnam Union of Science and Technology

Association (VUSTA) nuclear experts and Dr. Pham Duy Hien,

former director of Da Lat Nuclear Institute, show fear of

accidents and difficulties in storing waste as well as human

capacity to operate such advanced technology and huge capital

required.6

Professor Chu Hao, former deputy minister of science and

technology, has argued that Vietnam does not need nuclear

power and recommended that plans to build the first nuclear

power plant should be delayed until more advanced and safer

nuclear technologies become available. His caution may stem

from fears that current designs could still be susceptible to major

nuclear accidents of the kind seen at Chernobyl, Ukraine.

Moreover, Professor Tran Dinh Long, deputy chairman of the

Vietnam Electricity Power Association, has warned that nuclear

power would impose technical demands on Vietnam that it might

not be able to meet. He has stressed that building a nuclear

power plant “is not as easy as building a shoe-making factory.

We cannot affirm that engineers who have studied for five years

6 Synthesized news from BBC Vietnamese

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will be able to build a nuclear power plant.” He is not opposed

to Vietnam’s nuclear energy plans, but has called for careful

discussion of technologies, equipment and suppliers.

In the meantime, there are opinions supporting the national

nuclear power plan. Dr Tran Van Luyen claimed that nuclear

power is a clean source of energy that does not create the green

house effect as other power types do. Also, nuclear energy

would empower the status of Vietnam. Hence, the pursuit of

nuclear power is positive.

Prospects for nuclear usage in the country

In an interview with Dr Ngo Dang Nhan, General Director of

Vietnam Agency for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (VARANS),

he disclosed that Vietnam had taken a strong interest in nuclear

power as part of its development policy over the last decade.

Also, as the National Assembly of Vietnam approved a nuclear

power plan in November 2009 that is intended to serve as a

platform for the future growth of nuclear power in the country.

The construction of the nuclear power plants is scheduled to

commence in 2014. At present, VARANS is in charge of

building legal and administrative structure to support that

project.

Section 3 Regulatory Bodies for nuclear power and radioactive materials

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Vietnam Agency for Radiation and Nuclear Safety and Control (VARANS) is a

regulatory authority under the Ministry of Science and Technology. VARANS is

responsible for helping Minister of Science and Technology in the Sate

management in radiation and nuclear safety and control. The formation and

development history of VARANSAC experiences two periods:

The first period (from 1994 to 2003):

This period witnesses the fact that the whole country is on the way of the

economic reformation and enters to the industrialization and modernization. At

this time, the radiation nuclear safety and control is paid special attention to

ensure the sustainability for the development and a safety for human beings and

the environment as the radiation nuclear techniques are applied.

On 30 July 1994, the Prime Minister signed the Decision 389/TTg on

establishing the Vietnam Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Authority

under the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (now called the

Ministry of Science and Technology).

On 4 March 1995, the Minister of Science, Technology and Environment signed

the Decision 159/QD-TCCB on issuing the organization and operation

regulations of the Vietnam Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Authority.

From then, the authority is responsible for assisting the Minister to implement

the Sate management in radiation and nuclear safety and control.

The second period (from 2003 to present):

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In order to strengthen the State management in radiation and nuclear safety,

based on the Decree 54/2003/ND-CP dated on 19 May, 2003 of the

Government, the Minister of Science and Technology signed the Decision

1073/2003/QD-BKHCN on 20 June, 2003 and Decision 12/2004/QD-BKHCN

dated on 13 May, 2004 on establishing and issuing the organization and

operation of the Vietnam Agency for Radiation and Nuclear Safety and Control

(VARANS).

As clearly stipulated in the Decision 12/2004/QĐ-BKHCN, VARANS is

responsible for assisting the Minister of Science and Technology in the State

management in radiation nuclear safety and control. Each department under

VARANS has its own duty and takes charge of one field. This shows the

importance of the radiation nuclear safety and control at present and asserts the

position and role of a regulatory authority with the great responsibility of an

advisor for the Minister in the radiation nuclear safety and control to contribute

to the country development and to promote the globalization.

During over 10 years of building and development, despite of the shortage in

both material facilities and personnel, VARANS incessantly overcome

difficulties and strengthened the organization mechanism to implement well the

duty of both an assistant and an advisor for the Minister in the radiation nuclear

safety and control.

In the interview with Dr. Ngo Dang Nhan, he noted that VARANS is currently

preparing the legal documents necessary to move to the next step as an atomic

authority for nuclear power, that includes the adoption of the law on atomic

energy in cooperation with IAEA.

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The law on atomic energy, which was in full force and effective from 1 January

2009, is the legal framework for atomic energy development in general for

Vietnam. The law stipulated that the State of Vietnam encourages both

international and Vietnamese organizations and individuals to invest in atomic

power for socio-economic development.

The Government administrative responsibilities in atomic power are stipulated

as follows:

(i) The Government shall uniformly exercise the State management in

atomic power;

(ii) The Ministry of Science and Technology shall be responsible to the

Government for State management of atomic power;

(iii) Ministries and ministerial level bodies, within their authority, shall be

responsible for State management of atomic power in accordance

with the Government’s assignment;

(iv) Provincial People’s Committees shall perform State management in

atomic power in accordance with the Government’s assignment.

According to the law, VARANS is responsible for:

(i) Developing legal instruments on radiation and nuclear safety;

(ii) Organizing the notification of radiation substances, radiation

equipment, nuclear material, nuclear equipment and issuing

certificate for implementation of radioactive works in accordance

with its authority;

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(iii) Verifying and carrying out verification on radiation and nuclear

safety;

(iv) Monitoring, inspecting and handling breaches on radiation and

nuclear safety, suspending radioactive works within its authority;

propose to the competent State bodies for operation suspension of

research nuclear reactor or nuclear power plant upon detecting unsafe

factors;

(v) Implementing nuclear activity control in accordance with laws;

(vi) Participating in response against radiation and/or nuclear accidents

within its authority;

(vii) Developing and updating the national information system on

radiation and nuclear safety;

(viii) Organizing and cooperating trainings and specialist trainings on

radiation and nuclear safety; and

(ix) Organizing international cooperation in radiation and nuclear safety

Also, the responsibilities for formulation and approval of atomic power

development and application plan shall be as follows:

1. The responsibilities for formulation of atomic power development

and application plan shall be stipulated as follows:

a. The Ministry of Science and Technology shall preside over the

formulation of general plan on atomic power development and

application;

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b. The Ministry of Health shall preside over the formulation of

detailed plan on development and application of radiation in

medicine;

c. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment shall preside

over the formulation of detailed plan on development and

application of radiation in meteorology, hydrology, geology,

mineralogy and environment protection;

d. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shall preside

over the formulation of detailed plan on development and

application of radiation in agriculture;

e. The Ministry of Industry and Trade shall preside over the

formulation of detailed plan on development and application of

radiation in industry and other economic and technical areas; the

planning of nuclear power development; and the planning on

exploring, exploiting, processing and using of radioactive

materials;

f. The Ministry of Construction shall preside over the planning of

locations where radioactive waste is to be buried and stored.

2. The Prime Minister of the Government shall approve the general plan

and the detailed plans on development and application of atomic

power.

3. The bodies formulating plans stipulated in provision The responsibilities

for formulation of atomic power development and application plan shall be stipulated as

follows: of article 14 of the Law on Atomic Power shall be responsible

for organizing the implementation, providing guidelines, monitoring

and checking the implementation of the approved plans.

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Section 4 History of nuclear energy, nuclear research and international collaboration

Current plans for nuclear power and other atomic technologies

The National Assembly (NA) of Vietnam, the State legislative body, approved

the project on nuclear power plant in Ninh Thuan province on 25 November

2009 as announced on the official website of the NA. The plant will comprise

of two reactors locating in Phuoc Dinh commune and Vinh Hai commune of

Ninh Hai district. The first two reactors are scheduled to be built in 2014 and to

be commenced operating in 2020.

Specific technologies (US, Russian, French, Japanese) in nuclear technology

selected.

One big issue of concern for the pundit in Vietnam is the technologies applied in

the nuclear reactor. The world current nuclear power technology is the third

generation, which has been reviewed as the most modern one. It is advised that

Vietnam apply the third generation nuclear power technology for safety reasons.

At present, only a few countries possess such technology, including the US,

France, Russia, Japan and South Korea.

The international and national press have notified in late February and early

March 2010 that Russian Nuclear Energy State Corporation (ROSATOM) won

the fight with France and Japan to bring nuclear power to Vietnam.7 The

nuclear power plant (NPP), which is expected installing in Vietnam by

ROSATOM, is a type of reactor that is cooled and moderated by light water

(VVER-1000/AES-91 or VVER-1000/AES-92). The reactor has 4 horizontal

steam generators (instead of the vertical ones as in the EU-American design)

7 Russia wins fight with France and Japan to bring nuclear power to Vietnam

<http://www.powergenworldwide.com/index/display/articledisplay/9731133941/articles/powe

rgenworldwide/nuclear/reactors/2010/02/russia-wins_fight.html>

19

and is designed in accordance with Russian safety standards (OPB-88/97),

complementary with standards from the European Union. This type of NPP

belongs to the third generation that meets IAEA safety standards (75-INSAG

Rev1-10/1999) and has been improved from the second generation of nuclear

power technologies that were widely used between 1975 and 1985.

Several issues of concern in relation to the Russian technology can be named as

follows8:

(i) In terms of technology: The third NPP generation has been improved

by the ROSATOM based on its nearly 20 years experience in

operating NPPs of second generation together with results from

design assessment and consolidation of safety measures by safety

bodies worldwide during the 10 year period after Chernobyl accident.

It can be seen that apart from improvements by ROSATOM, other

advanced technologies such as I&C by SIEMENS, Hydrogen re-

combiner by AREVA, Core Catcher, and especially the safety culture

from EU-US, etc. have been applied in the design of VVER-

1000/AES-91, VVER-1000/AES-92 and AES-2006.

(ii) In terms of safety: this type of NPP meets most of safety standards by

advanced countries in the EU and the US. The “Probabilistic Safety

Assessment” (PSA) procedures applied to all stages in the design

process, and were developed based on the two trial programs “Project

1.4 of the TACIS-91 Program” and “NOVISA Project”.

(iii) Main issues to be considered when importing the technology: While

an NPP is operated, only a small failure in a device or lack of proper

operation procedures may lead an abnormal operation to a severe

accident. y 2020 it is important that Vietnam requires ROSATOM

8 Interview with Dr. Tran Dai Phuc, PhD in Nuclear Science and Technology, “Which

technology will ROSATAM offer?”, 9 February 2010, <http://varans.vn/default.asp?

actType=2&TypeGrp=1&ID_News=2608&menuid=103110&menuup=103000&menulink=1

00000&lang=EN>

20

designer provide VARANS and EVN with safe operation experiences

and procedures (in normal and abnormal operation and accidents) that

ROSATOM has collected from Russia, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Iran, India

and China where this type of NPP have been commercially operated

for at least 4 or 5 years.

During the process of certification for Russian NP design (VVER-

1000/AES-92), the EU noted the following weaknesses: i) The fuel

replacement for AES-92 takes 28 days instead of 20 days as

prescribed by the EU; ii) The spent fuel storage pool can

accommodate only 642 places instead of 738 as prescribed by the EU;

iii) According to the EU, it is difficult for ROSATOM to keep the

schedule of 60 months to construct an NPP.

Therefore, EVN should consider to request for the design to

sufficiently accommodate spent fuel assemblies so as not to have to

construct an additional pool (underwater or in the air with a heat

removal system) to meet safety standards for spent fuel storage pool.

EVN should also ask ROSATOM to consider using MOX fuel (Mix-

oxide PuO2-UO2) after 10 years of operation.

Section 5

Korea-Vietnam Economic Relations

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992, Korea and Vietnam

have rapidly formed close and cooperative ties, based on their historical and

cultural similarities, along with joining hands to develop a future-oriented

relationship. Korea is ranked second in the provision of official

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development assistance (ODA) to Vietnam, as of 2008, while being the

number one foreign investor in the Vietnamese market in 2007.9

Korean investors in Vietnam are mainly operating in areas of electronics,

automation equipment, IT, telecommunication, real estate, automobile

manufacturing, shipbuilding, infrastructure, and retail sales. Korea is

among the biggest foreign investors in Vietnam. As of late September 2009,

Korea had 2,284 projects worth US$22.4 billion in Vietnam, ranking the

first and second in terms of project number and capital value among

countries and territories investing in Vietnam.10

Politics: diplomacy

The establishment of diplomatic relation between Vietnam and Korea dated

on December 22nd 1992. On the same day, the Republic of Korea

inaugurated its embassy in Hanoi. One year later, the Republic of Korea

opened the Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City.11

President of Vietnam Tran Duc Luong and President of the Republic of

Korea announced the Joint Statement to set the framework for the bilateral

9 Lee, In-hyuck, Concerted Efforts to Enhance the Image of Korea in Vietnam, Workshop

Program for Vietnamese Local Government Leaders,

<http://newsletter.kf.or.kr/english/print.asp?no=1491>

10 Vietnamese, South Korean Business Enhance Cooperation, November 25th 2009, Vietnam

Chamber of Commerce and Industry <http://vibforum.vcci.com.vn/news_detail.asp?

news_id=18829>

11 Vietnam – Republic of Korea’s Relation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

<http://www.mofa.gov.vn/en/cn_vakv/ca_tbd/nr040818112237/ns070817144925/>

22

ties “Comprehensive Partnership between the Socialist Republic of Vietnam

and the Republic of Korea in the 21st Century” in August 2001. The two

nations agreed to upgrade their bilateral relations to a strategic cooperative

partnership in October 2009.12 It is presumed that after the upgrade of the

bilateral relations, trade activities will be boosted.

Vietnamese Perceptions of Korean culture

Korean culture has become popular in Vietnam since the late 1990s initiated

with the broadcast of Korean dramas. During the 2000s, Korea dramas

rapidly gained airtime on television channels, from the North to the South.

Today Korean Pop culture has a great impact on the young generation in

Vietnam. Young viewers in Vietnam have been attracted to the “modern

image” seen in the lifestyles of Korea. The views and items portrayed in

Korean cultural products, and the high standard of living that depicts Korea

as a dynamic and developed country. Aside with enjoying Korean

television dramas, young Vietnamese consumers are eagerly adopting and

emulating Korean lifestyle from fashion and to food and consumption

patterns.13

Perception of Korean technology and knowhow with regards to nuclear

power.

12 An upgrade in diplomatic relations between Korea and Vietnam, KBS World,

<http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_commentary_detail.htm?No=16799>

13 Hallyu And Its Effect on Young Vietnamese, Dr. Dang Thi Thu Huong, The Korea Herald

23

Vietnamese people generally perceive Korea as a technologically advanced

nation. There have been a number of collaboration and cooperation in

relation to technology between the two countries. The Commission for

Science and Technology Cooperation between Vietnam and South Korea led

by Vietnam Deputy Minister of Science and Technology, Mr. Tran Quoc

Thang, visited South Korea in early 2009 to evaluate the cooperation

outcome between 2007 and 2008, and to confirm the fields of cooperation

in the period of 2010 - 2011. During the meeting with his Korean

counterpart, Kim Jung Hyun, Mr Tran Quoc Thang emphasized the

encouragement in cooperation over nanotechnology, agriculture, maritime

study and scientific management.14

With respect to nuclear power technology, the media have focused on the

tension between North Korea and South Korea. Also, some press describe

South Korea as having a high nuclear power technology citing that South

Korea was ranked 6th in the world in terms of nuclear power technology. It

is assumed that the Vietnamese at government level is somewhat informed

of advancement in South Korean technology via a more strengthening

cooperation between the two nations. It is, however, unclear how an

average Vietnamese perceives of Korean nuclear power technology due to

no literature found in relation to this topic. Hence, primary research in form

of interviews with groups of Vietnamese is recommended.

14 Vietnamese article released on the website of Vietnamplus

<http://www.vietnamplus.vn/Home/VietHan-thuc-day-hop-tac-khoa-hoccong-

nghe/20094/7161.vnplus>

24

Details of nuclear collaboration: nonproliferation, energy, training, and

research.

As Vietnam is moving towards establishing its own nuclear power plant in

2020, there have been a number of researches done on this issue.

Particularly, collaboration between Vietnam and Korea has been established

to learn from Korea’s experience in nuclear power and also to find

possibility of becoming partner in technology transfer.

An issue of concern for the Vietnam side is nuclear power safety. The plan

to set up a nuclear power plant was a controversial one since it was opposed

by a number of Vietnamese researchers and scientists. They reasoned that a

nuclear power plant is very costly meanwhile the profitability is not

obvious. Moreover, Vietnam lacks the necessary resources, particularly,

human resource or capability, to operate a nuclear power plant.15

To pave the process to the formation of a nuclear power plant, the Vietnam

Atomic Energy Commission carried out several studies to assess the

country’s situation and find potential partners for cooperation. A minute of

a meeting of the Vietnam – Korea Joint Committee on Atomic Energy

Cooperation was found dated on 22 March 2004, which provided some key

points in relation to Korea’s experience in nuclear power plant operation as

well as safety issue. The press also reported a meeting between the Vietnam

Atomic Energy Commission and Korea Trade Investment Promotion

Agency (KOTRA) on 21 October 2009. In this meeting, Korea proposed to

15 Synthesized from different news sources including BBC and other forums

25

assist Vietnam in technology and resources in order for Vietnam to develop

its nuclear power.

Vietnamese Attitudes towards Korean industry or government as a

partner for nuclear industry

The government of Vietnam holds a positive attitude towards Korean

industry and government. In the interview with Dr. Ngo Dang Nhan of

VARANS, he expressed a great appreciation for the role that Korea plays in

the region. He said that Vietnamese specialists are well aware of Korea’s

experience in nuclear safety and Vietnam looks forward to working with

Korea in the future. VARANS sent several staff to Korea for training. The

agency also has close collaborative efforts with Russia and France as well.

Opportunities for Korea; suggestions to Korea

It may appear that after the construction of the very first nuclear power

plant, the government of Vietnam will consider opening more nuclear power

plants to meet increasing demand for energy. This is an opportunity for

Korea’s technology to be transferred to Vietnam once Korean technology is

well perceived as being safe and appropriate with the situation of Vietnam.

In order to realize this opportunity, it is recommended that Korea strengthen

its collaborative efforts with Vietnam and provide technological updates in a

timely manner. Once Vietnam is well informed of any development in the

technology, it is possible that Korea can be a potential partner for Vietnam.

26

Appendix A

.

Vietnam Interview:

Ngo Dang Nhan

Director General

VARANS.VN

Vietnam has taken a strong interest in nuclear power as part of its

development policy over the last decade. We feel that nuclear power must

be part of the mix in the future so as to assure our status as a developing

nation.

We started with the National Institute of Atomic Energy, but it became part

of the Ministry of Environment in 1993. Initially, we had very little

activities concerning nuclear technology and a small budget. Over time,

however, we have increased our scale, and are responsible for state

management of nuclear materials, including medical technology. We are

now preparing the legal documents necessary to move to the next step as an

atomic authority for nuclear power, that includes the adoption of atomic

energy codes and laws in cooperation with IAEA and full control of

radioactive materials.

We have concerned on preparing for nuclear power the last few years. We

will need staff trained in operating nuclear power plants, transporting nuclear

fuel and waste and otherwise improving our capability in all fields. We

previously trained most personnel in this field in Russia, and occasionally in

Eastern Europe. But we will look for far broader opportunities this time.

We think training will be critical. Plans are in place to pursue an intensive

training program both at home and abroad over the next few years. We must

27

localize expertise and we will engage nations like Korea and the United

States in this regard. For example, we signed an agreement in May, 2008

with the US NRC for the exchange of technical information regarding

nuclear power and have continued close cooperation. NRC is involved in

such programs with several smaller countries and Vietnam is most active.

We have a great appreciation for the role that Korea plays in the region. We

know Korea has much experience in nuclear safety and we look forward to

working with Korea in the future. We have sent some staff to Korea

previously and we have also close collaborative efforts with Russia, and now

with France as well. Russia has offered us very professional assistance for

quite some time now.

All these changes take place in accordance with Article 8 of the Law on

Atomic Energy of Vietnam.

In 2005, VARANS had only 8 staff members. Now it has 17 and there are

plans for further expansion. We have a new laboratory and the necessary

equipment for licensing and authorization of nuclear power.

Much of the equipment is from the US and Europe, although some from

Russia, Australia and France (all important partners). In September, 2009,

we have a visit from the IAEA to access our capabilities and our

infrastructure.

Vietnam is involved in many international organizations, including the

convention for nuclear safety. A representative will attend the Nuclear

Security Summit Conference organized by President Obama for April 12-13,

2010. Vietnam works quite closely with the international community on

nuclear power issues. We are expanding our activities.

28

In November of 2009, the National Assembly approved a location in Ninh

Thuan province for the master plan on nuclear power.

We plan to start construction in 2014. We are building a legal and

administrative structure to support that project.

We are also engaged in a long-term study of regulatory systems, looking at

the USA NRC. We have met many representatives of the NRC and work

closely with them. We need to have staff with the international mind to

handle all future needs to conform with international conventions.

29

Malaysia

Introduction

Malaysia is reconsidering its energy options, particularly its adoption of

nuclear energy. While the situation in Malaysia appears to demonstrate a

fruitful and efficient energy sector, long-term consumption trends suggest

otherwise. Malaysia’s sustainability—and reliability—of the energy sector is

crucial, now that 93% and 100% of rural and urban areas, respectively, have

access to electricity.16 Malaysia’s current nuclear power sector is limited to

research,17 because the government held scant interest in creating a significant

16 A. Mohamed and K. Lee, “Energy for Sustainable Development in Malaysia,” Energy Policy, Vol. 34, No. 15 (October 2006), 2389.

17 Malaysia has operated the TRIGA PUSPATI 1 megawatt (MW) reactor in Bangi since 1982.

30

nuclear power infrastructure up until the latter part of the 2000s.18 Even though

policymakers seem adverse to nuclear power technology, that mindset is set to

diminish in light of increased long-term consumption rates and outside

investment. As the energy demand grows, Malaysia will find it difficult to

offset increasing demand with traditional energy sources.

The energy picture

At first glance, the best of all possible energy policies in Malaysia would

be inexorable from current plans. Malaysia maintains 2,304.30 billion cubic

meters of natural gas reserves, the most natural gas reserves in Southeast Asia

outside of Indonesia. 90% of its power is derived from fossil fuels.19 Even

though Malaysia is a lead exporter of LNG, it is observed that natural gas

reserves will last well until 2047.20 Further, current electricity generation losses

are “minimal,” and an Indonesian hydropower dam, constructed by 2012 on

Borneo, will produce an additional 2,400 MW of electricity (Malaysia plans to

consume most of the output).21

18 The headquarters of the Malaysian Nuclear Energy Agency (i.e., Nuclear Malaysia) is located at Bangi.

19 Statement by M. ElBaradei, “Nuclear Power: Looking to the Future,” International Atomic Energy Agency (July 18, 2007), http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2007/ebsp2007n011.html

20 “Strategic Dossier: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia,” The International Institute for Strategic Studies (September 2009), 89-90.

21 Ibid, 89.

31

Despite this apparent abundance and excellent allocation of resources,

Malaysia is on par for a mean final energy consumption growth rate of 4.4% per

annum from 2005 to 2030; in other words, even though consumption may be

lower now, it will have risen exponentially within 20 years.22 Even in ten years,

the rates are expected to climb. In the year 2000, the total consumption of fuel

and electricity was recorded at 52,300 gigawatt hours (GWh). By 2020,

consumption of fuel/ electricity will have reached approximately 190,721 GWh,

a nearly fourfold increase.23 Total consumption of natural gas increased 7.2%

from 2007 to 2008 alone.24 The consumption rate is expected to climb as

increasing urbanization, decreasing natural gas stores, and other trends take

effect in the coming years. Adding to the urgency is the dramatic decline in oil

reserves, from 4.6bn barrels in 1996 to 3bn in 2007.25

Moreover, the correlation between electricity consumption and economic

development warrants attention. Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

soaring from US$93.79 billion in 2000 to US$194.93 billion in 2008, has

brought revenue in that is encouraging its citizens to consume energy, especially

22 The Energy Data and Modeling Center, et al, “The 2nd ASEAN Energy Demand Outlook” (March 2009).

23 H. H. Masjuki, T. M. I. Mahlia and I. A. Choudhury, R. Saidur, “Potential CO2 Reduction by Fuel Substitution to Generate Electricity in Malaysia,” Energy Conversion and Management (Vol. 43, Issue 6, April 2002), 763-770.

24 BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2009), http://bp.com/statisticalreview.

25 “Strategic Dossier: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia,” 90.

32

as a growing middle class purchases more home appliances. Results from a

June 2009 Energy Policy study confirmed the dynamic between electricity

demand and real GDP growth.26 Because Malaysia is completely energy-

dependent (its economy has transitioned from agrarian to industrial within a

short period of time), the authors’ findings, a result of two econometric “nexus

model” applications, indicate energy conservation measures or any other

government policies stymieing electric power production imposes an “adverse

effect” on economic growth.27

Nuclear power in context

There are two important reasons why Malaysia is considering nuclear

power: First, policymakers have made the dependability of a consistent energy

supply a top priority. In 2005, Malaysia embarked on the “Five-Fuel

Diversification Strategy,” promoting the use of natural gas, coal, oil, hydro, and

renewable energy, without considering nuclear options.28 However, since the

formulation of the strategy, Malaysia’s transition to nuclear energy is all the

more likely because of increased energy demand. There are few energy sources

as dependable as the nuclear option beyond 2020 to counteract demand.

26 V.G.R. Chandran, S. Sharma and K. Madharan, “Electricity Consumption-Growth Nexus: The Case of Malaysia,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 1 (October 2, 2009), 607.

27 Ibid, 609.

28 A. Mohamed and K. Lee, “Energy for Sustainable Development,” 2394.

33

Second, rising fuel costs encourage the Malaysian government to seek

alternative energy sources. In August 2008, the national cabinet appropriated

the cost of nuclear energy exploration into the budget, examining its feasibility

and promoting alternative energies; by September 2008, Malaysia’s Ministry of

Science, Technology and Innovation (MOSTI) increased the possibility of a

future nuclear program, promulgating plans for a fully functional nuclear power

generator to be completed by 2023.29 In an explanation for the announcement,

MOSTI cited Malaysia’s costly reliance on fossil fuels.

Regionally, Malaysia enjoys relatively free reign in its exploration of

energy options. Because most countries are incapable of enrichment, Southeast

Asia is accommodative to states pursuing advancements in—and heavily

involved in advancing in the field of—nuclear research technology. Other

countries, however, face strictures from outside regional influence, even beyond

the regulations of the IAEA. The European Union (EU), for instance, barred

Lithuania from entry until it discontinued operations at the Soviet-era Ignalina

nuclear facility, Lithuania to seek alternate energy sources to cover 75% of its

electricity needs.30 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of

which Malaysia is a founding member, imposes no such measures against

member countries. While the EU has codified IAEA standards into law for

29 “Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries,” World Nuclear Association (December 29, 2009),http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf102.html.

30 Andrew Ward, “Lithuania Fears Exposure as Reactor Shuts Down,” Financial Times (January 2, 2010), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d2febe64-f73d-11de-9fb5-00144feab49a.html.

34

member countries, ASEAN does not have the wherewithal to mandate certain

regulations for its members.31 The counteraction of weapons development alone

binds the South East Asian Weapons Free Zone, an eleven-year old treaty to

which Malaysia is a signatory.32 ASEAN authority on nuclear power

development is nonexistent. Singapore’s proposal for an ASEAN-level Nuclear

Energy Safety Sub-Sector Network, an implementation for nuclear safety

exploration, has remained stranded in the planning stages since 2007 because of

inaction.33

The backlash from the contentious March 2008 general election

generated in-fighting among members of Malaysia’s ruling Barisan Nasional

(BN) coalition. Staunch opposition from the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) for control of

parliamentary seats also threatens the efficacy of BN. Nevertheless, BN is

likely to remain in power throughout 2010-11, retaining a “simple parliamentary

majority” that allows their binding legislation to pass unabatedly.34 So long as

BN maintains Malaysia’s economic recovery in the wake of the worldwide 2008

financial crisis, it will continue to urge nuclear development to the cabinet.35 A

31 J. Kanter, “E.U. To Begin Press on Nuclear Standards,” The New York Times (March 8, 2010), http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/08/business/global/08nuclear.html

32 Pia Lee-Prago, “Philippine Foreign Affairs Chief Says ASEAN to Set Up Nuclear Plant Watchdog,” BBC Monitoring—Asia Pacific (July 29, 2009).

33 Symon, “

34 “Country Report–Malaysia,” Economist Intelligence Unit (March 2010), http://www.eiu.com.

35 “Strategic Dossier: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia,” 87.

35

two-thirds majority in parliament is required to amend the constitution if

needed, but, even in its absence, BN definitively controls the direction in which

the country takes its nuclear power production and research. If a rival political

party, such as PR, were to establish a two-thirds majority, then they would need

to alter the constitution in order to deregulate the nuclear industry.

The causal relationship between government fiscal policies and nuclear

engagement will figure prominently in the coming years as Malaysia’s

government seeks outside investors. Reform-minded Prime Minister Najib

Razak’s priorities toward increasing and diversifying Foreign Direct Investment

(FDI) into Malaysia will significantly enhance the role of companies looking to

offer nuclear research expertise and technology. As a result of the economic

crisis, Malaysia has sought FDI from countries largely unaffected by the

liquidity shortfall and other catalysts of the turmoil. Countries such as the

United States, Germany and Singapore, whose significant past FDI flows into

Malaysia have dried up in light of the financial crisis, are considered

unreliable.36 PM Najib’s administration, in turn, instituted policies that would

attract alternate investors, such as China. Even if policymakers acknowledge

that investment from the US would have greater societal benefits than China,

they are prone to follow whichever course keeps their returns steady. As The

36 Ibid.

36

Economist argues invectively, “Economists routinely advise governments to act

in the economy’s interests rather than their own.”37

FDI flows from new outside actors, i.e. China, are already taking effect.

The most recent example of energy-oriented FDI resulting from PM Najib’s

policies was the January 2010 State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) deal

with 1Malaysia Development (1MDB), establishing a join-venture company. In

order to tap into full Malaysia hydroelectricity potential, the terms of the

agreement indicated that the SGCC would provide technical expertise while

1MDB “facilitated” investments on an aluminum plant.38 Even though such an

arrangement is rather marginal by either Chinese or Malaysian standards, it

forebodes Malaysia’s orientation towards seeking foreign guidance on

infrastructure-related projects. If similar Chinese-Malaysian deals are forged

regularly in the future, more outside help in Malaysia’s probable nuclear power

program can be expected.

Collaboration with South Korea

Among “outside help,” it is consistent with current trends that the Republic

of Korea (ROK) will figure prominently in future nuclear technology transfers

37 “On Deaf Ears: Does India’s Government Pay Any Heed to Its Economic Advisers?,” The Economist (March 4, 2010), http://www.economist.com/business-finance/economics-focus/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15606303.

38 “Country Report–Malaysia,” Economist Intelligence Unit.

37

with Malaysia. Indeed, the ROK is Malaysia’s likeliest partner in the

establishment of a future nuclear program.39 Following the winning bid of

ROK’s state integrated electric utility enterprise Korea Electric Power Company

(KEPCO) for a US$20.4bn contract to develop a civilian nuclear program in the

United Arab Emirates (UAE), the company engaged in “serious talks” with

Malaysia.40 Given an inexpensive US$2,300 rate per kilowatt (KW) relative to

Japan’s Advanced Boiling Water Reactor price listing at US$2,900 per KW,

there reason to believe Malaysia would honor on a similar deal.41

The UAE deal held special significance for KEPCO’s international

reputation because the ROK is now the 6th largest nuclear technology exporter

worldwide.42 To mark the occasion, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak

noted, “We had been building nuclear power stations for 30 years but had failed

in repeated attempts to break into international markets. For the first time in our

history, we can now pave the way for exporting atomic plants after fierce

competition with advanced nations.”43

In building on its reputation as an international power supplier, KEPCO is

seeking to expand its influence with a variety of investment strategies. South

39 “Strategic Dossier: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia,” 90.

40 “KEPCO in Talks to Build More Nuclear Generators after UAE Deal,” South China Morning Post (January 21, 2010), B6.

41 Ibid.

42 Ibid.

43 Ibid.

38

Korean policymakers are aware that the Korean economy must reconfigure its

international operations from traditional export services, such as shipbuilding,

to a diversified services gamut (the ROK government described itself as a

potential “supplier of choice”)44 if it wishes to compete on the global stage;

KEPCO’s goal to retain US$400bn in foreign contracts and build 80 reactors by

2030 would satisfy this intent. One recent KEPCO objective is the construction

of 20% of the world’s nuclear plants, but the broader goal is to establish the

ROK as one the top three nuclear power suppliers (behind the United States and

France).45 In keeping with this objective, KEPCO and the ROK will go to great

lengths to encourage Malaysia to invest in ROK nuclear technologies.

Tellingly, in May 2009 President Myung-bak personally urged the development

of a ROK-built, small-scale nuclear power plant to PM Razak during his state

visit to the ROK.46

Over the years, intrastate relations between the ROK and Malaysia have

improved as both economies have steadily grown. The ROK’s real GDP is

expected to grow 4-5% in 2010; even GDP per capita increased from $295 in

1970 to $19,286 in 2008.47 Total trade between the two countries grew from

44 C. Oliver, “S. Korea Eyes Wider Nuclear Exports,” Financial Times (January 22, 2010), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed88e824-06f4-11df-b058-00144feabdc0.html.

45 M. Ihlwan, “Obama’s Nuclear Power Plan Cheers Koreans,” Business Times (March 2, 2010), http://www.businessweek.com/print/globalbiz/content/mar2010/gb2010032_184992.htm.

46 “Strategic Dossier: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia,” 90.

47 C. Oliver and D. Pilling, “South Korea: Into Position,” Financial Times (March 16, 2010), http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f86cd7a-3134-11df-8e6f-00144feabdc0.html#.

39

$460mn in 1979 to $15.7bn in 2008.48 The ROK’s construction endeavors

within Malaysia alone now exceed $8bn (e.g., Samsung Engineering built one

of the two Petronas Towers).49 Even the number of Korean expatriates in

Malaysia increased from 30,000 in 2007 to approximately 50,000 in 2009.50

Indubitably, the enduring business relationship will strengthen if nuclear

contracts bind the two countries.

Regulations on nuclear power

A formidable bureaucratic structure oversees Malaysia’s up-and-coming

nuclear sector. The 1984 Atomic Energy Licensing Act, establishing the Atomic

Energy Licensing Board (AELB), stipulated the “control of atomic energy…and

any matters connected therewith, including construction.”51 The Act also

declared that the President directly appoints members of the AELB. However,

in 1990 the AELB was designated under the authority of MOSTI, which has

attempted to accord the Act to IAEA’s standards ever since. MOSTI’s

48 “Current and Future of Korea-Malaysia Relations,” Institute of Strategic International Studies – Malaysia (November 13, 2009), http://www.isis.org.my/files/papers/01%20Yang%20Bong-ryull.pdf.

49 Ibid.

50 Z. Phoon, “Hwan Young Hap Ni Da” New Straits Times (November 26, 2007), http://properties.emedia.com.my/listfocus.php?propNewsID=452&CatID=F00.

51 Ibid, 90.

40

supervisory role is total, having authority over both the application and

production of nuclear energy. Yet the AELB tends to influence innovative

strategies for guided research, so its responsibilities extend further than typical

bureaucratic overseers.

So far, Malaysia is an official signatory to three IAEA conventions. In

1987, the legislature ratified the Convention on the Early Notification of a

Nuclear Accident and the Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear

Accident or Radiological Emergency, a legal framework establishing formal

communication with IAEA officials in the wake of a nuclear emergency.52 In

2003 and 2005 Malaysia’s acceded to the Convention on the Physical Protection

on Nuclear Material and the Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear

Terrorism, respectively.53 Perhaps most importantly, once a formal nuclear

energy program is established Malaysia intends to adhere to the IAEA’s 1997

Additional Safeguards Protocol, extending IAEA inspector access to nuclear

sites and information.54

As Malaysia strives to gain legitimacy among its nuclear counterparts in

the international community, there is no doubt AELB will ensure more and

more stringent conditions are met. AELB’s bureaucratic structure has proven

52 “Strategic Dossier: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia,” The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 91.

53 Ibid.

54 “Malaysia State Government Policy,” Jane’s Strategic Advisory Services (Posted February 11, 2010), http://jcbrn.janes.com.

41

effective at achieving international commendation for their nuclear program

because safety and security standards are constantly updated and reviewed. In

2009, the AELB adopted the IAEA’s “Code of Conduct on the Safety and

Security of Radioactive Sources.” The “Regional Workshop on Combating

Illicit Arms Trafficking in Nuclear and Other Radioactive Materials,” a speaking

engagement involving IAEA members and regional nuclear experts, was held in

Kuala Lumpur in October 2009.

Conclusion

The question of a nuclear industry in Malaysia will be answered before

long. The eventuality of an extensive nuclear energy program is currently more

a matter of government decision-making than it is of technological capabilities.

The ROK’s role is already substantial, and the ambitions of the ROK

government will surely veer towards increasing collaboration on a Malaysian

nuclear program in the future. Volatility in the energy market may preclude a

program (because the global economic effects on FDI will always figure

prominently in the success of a nuclear industry), but for the most part energy

decisions will be at the mercy of whichever political party is in power.

42

Appendix A

Economy

Malaysia is a formerly agrarian nation that has transformed since the

1970s into a multi-sectored economy. Exports, particularly in the field of

electronics, are the largest drivers of the economy, and the US is Malaysia’s

largest trading partner. State oil producer Petronas supplies 40% of government

revenue.55 With its vast stores of energy, central regional location, and

substantial foreign direct investment flows (mostly from Singapore, the US and

Japan), Malaysia is expected to experience high economic growth in the next

few years as East and Southeast Asian countries make a full rebound in the

wake of the financial crisis.56 This is despite the fact that real GDP fell 1.7% in

2009,57 or even that GDP fell by a mean average “annualized rate” of 13% in

Hong Kong, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand in 2008.58

55 “World Factbook — Malaysia,” Central Intelligence Agency (March 5, 2010), https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/my.html.

56 “Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia – Findings of the Quarterly Survey of International Investment and Services,” Malaysia Balance of Payments Statistics Division (2008), http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/images/stories/files/journalDOSM/ArticleIVol12008.pdf?phpMyAdmin=HsSjziTw4modEUBuL5A5eWr139e.

57 “Country Report – Malaysia,” Economist Intelligence Unit (March 2010), 1.

58 “On the Rebound,” The Economist (August 13, 2009), http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14209825&source=login_payBarrier.

43

Over the course of the next year, government policy will have to demonstrate a

renewal in inward investment strategies, as well as the status of the services

sector. Inward investment as a percentage of GDP fell from 43% in 1997 to just

19% in 2008 (see Figure 1.1 for recent data).59 The services sector, which

suffered a decline in the wake of the now-defunct law requiring that

bumiputera, or indigenous peoples, hold a minority equity stake in service

companies, is looked increasingly by policymakers to build up as a percentage

of GDP.

GDP,

in

billion

s (bn)

GDP

Per

Capita

(USD)

GDP

Growt

h (%)

Inflatio

n (%)

Extern

al Debt

(bn)

Exports

(bn)

Imports

(bn)

Malaysi

a (2009) M$19

7

$5,770.2

5

-2.27% 0.72% M$71.1

8

M$181.8

6

M$139.0

3Source: IHS Global Insight/ Jane’s

Appendix B

Government

The Federation of Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy. Although the

ruling constitutional monarch’s Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin’s role is largely

ceremonial, he still retains nominal control of the armed forces and the

59 Ibid.

44

appointment of cabinet officials.60 The executive level of government,

comprised of the Prime Minister and his Cabinet, is a component of the

legislature. Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, whose own father was the

second prime minister, seemed destined for the premiership.61 Former PM

Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, an “incorruptible” reformer, replaced the

authoritarian Mahathir Mohamad in 2003. Although Barisan Nasional (BN) has

retained power since 1957, the Malaysian government has demonstrated a

consistently reformist outlook since Mohamad’s election.62

The bicameral Parliament is divided between the 222-member Dewan

Rakyat (Peoples’ Hall) and the 70-member Dewan Negara (Nation’s Hall). The

winner of each seat is elected through a past-the-post, or “winner takes all,”

system of voting. The majority-BN coalition within parliament is composed of

three political parties: the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the

Malaysian Chinese Association, and the Malaysian Indian Congress. The

UMNO is easily the most powerful of the three, portraying itself as the

“protector” of the ethnically dominant Malay population.63

60 “Malaysia – Country Profile,” BBC News Online (Updated March 10, 2010), http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/country_profiles/1304569.stm.

61 Ibid.

62 T. Pepinsky, “Malaysia: Turnover Without Change,” Journal of Democracy, Vol. 18, No. 1 (January 2007), 113.

63 J. Lee, “Barisan Nasional – Political Dominance and the General Elections of 2004 in Malaysia,” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Vol. 26, Issue 2 (2007), 40.

45

Indonesia

Section 1 The energy picture

46

Energy Resources and Usage

The composition of Indonesia’s energy resources and consumption from 1970 to 2007 has been changed to the higher degree due to the population growth, industry, and the availability of the resources.

Electricity in Indonesia uses an interconnection system among Java-Madura-Bali and most of Sumatera Island whereas the other islands are still isolated. Electrification ratio in Indonesia is 56 % with village electrified ratio 85%. Growth rate of demand for electricity up to 2026 is 7.1 % per year.

In 2008 the installed power plant in Indonesia has a capacity of 29,083 MW which supported by three major unrenewable energy power plant64:

• State Electricity Company: 24,887 MW (85.57%)

• Independent Power Producer: 3,450 MW (11.86%)

• PPU : 746 MW (2.57%)

The renewable power plant in Indonesia has not played the major role yet:• Geothermal : 1,032 MW

• Hydro : 4,200 MW

• Mini/Micro Hydro : 84 MW

• Biomass : 445 MW

• Solar Cell : 8 MW

• Wind Power : 0.6 MW

As we can see from Figure 1 the composition of energy consumption has changed. In 1970 oil played the major part in Indonesia energy consumption, about 88%, but in 2007 it had decreased to 49.7%. Gas consumption, on the other hand has increased from 6% in 1970 to 19.7% in 2007.

64 Adiwardojo, “Energy Situation and Nuclear Power Development in Indonesia”, Tsuruga Summer Institute of Nuclear Energy, Tsuruga, Japan, Sept 8-12, 2008.

47

Figure 1. Primary Energy Consumption in Indonesia65

. According to the Indonesia National Electric General Plan (RUKN) the electricity demand in Indonesia will be increased to 450 TWh in 2026 from 115 TWh in 2006. Java-Madura-Bali use more than half of the demand as we can see from the table in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Electricity Demand in Indonesia66

In 2006, 42 % of the primary energy share for power generation in Java-Madura-Bali, as shown in Figure 3 is coal and it kept increasing until 71% in

65 Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistic of Indonesia-MEMR, 2008

66 DGEEU-MEMR

48

2010. This will be a major environmental issue in Indonesia due to carbon emission from energy sector which will cause climate change.

Figure 3. Primary Energy Share for power Generation (Java-Madura-Bali)67

Indonesia has lots of oil, natural gas and coal resources but it will not be enough for long term electricity supply, not to mention the environment issue which is also very important. As we can see from the table in Figure 4, Indonesia has coal mines that can be preserved in 75 years assuming no new reserves found.

Figure 4. Indonesia’s Fossil Energy Reserves & Production 68

67 DGEEU-MEMR

68 Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistic of Indonesia-MEMR, 2008

49

Besides the fossil energy resources, Indonesia also has tremendous resources of renewable energy as shown in table in Figure 5, but unfortunately they’re only used less than 5% from their capability. Take hydro energy for an example, from 75,760 MW that can be developed, only 4,2 MW is being used in 2008. Other than that, Indonesia has a uranium mine in West Kalimantan that can be the source for nuclear power plant for 11 years of operation.

Figure 5. Indonesia’s Non Fossil Energy Reserves & Production 69

Indonesian Government is very concern about the carbon emission from the energy sector especially due to the growth of population, economic development which will lead to the increment of carbon emission and limited resources of fossil energy. In order to restrain the growth of carbon emission, the low carbon energy should be increased. The optimum strategy has been stated on the Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006. It is predicted that the carbon emission will be 17% lower than the business-as-usual scenario in 2025.70

69 Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistic of Indonesia-MEMR, 2008

70 Hutapea, Maritje, “Energy and Climate Change in Indonesia”, Workshop on Climate Change and Energy, Bangkok, 26-27 March, 2009.

50

Figure 6. National Energy Mix in 202571

Supporting the idea to maximize non-fossil energy resource for power plant, the President of Indonesia has issued a Presidential Instruction no 1 year 2010 which stated that by the end of year 2010, Indonesian society should have understood deeply about nuclear power plant. This public notice and awareness should be accomplished by Indonesia Ministry of Research and Technology together with the National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN).

71 Presidential Regulation No. 5/2006

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Section 2 Nuclear power in context

Nuclear usage in Indonesia

Nuclear usage in Indonesia is not developed only for energy but also in other parts of human life such as food (agriculture/farming), information and communication technology, and also health and drugs.72

In terms of food (agriculture/farming), in short term achievement, the research done in BATAN has contribute 10 % of the availability of first-grade variety of horticulture for national food stock, the additional of animal food supplements, and the sustainable of the research in this field, in the year 2004.

In middle and long term achievement, the center of research excellent and the reference in the field has applied isotope and radiation technology for agriculture and animal farming in the year 2008.

In terms of energy, nuclear energy becomes an option for long term planning of Energy National System. The Center of excellent regionally also used nuclear technology for the exploration and exploitation of geothermal energy as well as public and business services in the field of water management in the year 2005. Other achievement in using nuclear power in energy field is successful of the engineering design demonstration plan of electron machine scattering for de-SOx and de-NOx PLTU fossil in the year 2007.

In the middle and long term achievements, BATAN has established the Science and Technology Base (STB) in the field of Nuclear Energy in the year of 2010. Moreover, the first Nuclear Energy Plantation will be operated in Indonesia (The Electrical Connection of Java-Bali) in the year 2016.

In communication and technology field, nuclear power has contributed in many aspects especially in simulation/modeling, digital library, and Management of

72 National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN)

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Human Resources in the year 2005. To support a long term usage of nuclear power in communication and technology, BATAN has established the center of Information in the field of Nuclear Technology for public information and Education and developed computational methodology, computer simulation modeling, and preservation of nuclear technology knowledgebase in the year 2010.

Nuclear power also plays an important role in health and drugs development in Indonesia. In the year 2005, BATAN completed a Nuclear Technology Devices for preventing and releasing of cancer and bacterial infection. BATAN also has established the center of excellent and expertise in the field of public health based on nuclear technology in the year 2010 as well as the center of excellent in engineering and maintenances of nuclear devices in the field of health, industry, and nuclear safety in the year 2008.

Political Factors in Indonesia

Nuclear program requires a lifetime commitment or 100 year-commitment from government. The political situation in Indonesia is very vulnerable to change. Direct legislative and presidential elections in every five year-period have the potential to create significant political changes. Both the elected legislative representatives and government (the President and Vice President) will always consider the chance to be re-elected in the next election period, hence they tend to highly consider the groups of people who have vocal voice regardless the benefit of the opinion for short and long-term to the country. In other words, they tend accommodate such a voice in order to win the support from the people for the next election instead of trying to convince the people or voters to collectively reach advancement and wealth in the future (long-term vision).73

For example, President Yudhoyono in his second presidential election campaign in April 2009 declared that Indonesia will not pursue NPP as its nuclear power

73 K. Huda, B. Rohman, and A.N. Lasman, Regulatory Challenges for Indonesia in Embarking to Nuclear Power, Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency (BAPETEN), http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Meetings

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plant while on the other hand in when he was a president in January 2006 he announced his Presidential Decision that renewable energy sources, among them nuclear power, would account for 5% of the nation’s electricity supply by 2025. Parliamentary approval in 2007 of Act no 17, “national Long-Term Development Planning’, set 2015-19 as the time frame for introducing nuclear power.74

This political situation will be a challenge (and might be a threat) encountered by Indonesia as an NPP embarking country.

Present and future nuclear usage in Indonesia

Indonesia has been planning to build Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) since the 1970’s. Nevertheless, due to problems including some nuclear accidents abroad and monetary crisis, the program is immaterialized. In recent years, in anticipation of domestic energy crisis, nuclear program is revitalized. In the current situation, nuclear program is facing various challenges, primarily the regulatory challenges including public perception, political situation, brain drain, public confidence, and international confidence.

Indonesia does not have nuclear power plant at the moment, but for industry (activated radioisotope) and research purpose, three nuclear reactors have been built:

1. Kartini nuclear research reactor

• Location: Yogyakarta (Central Java)• Type: TRIGA reactor

74 “Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia”, pg. 70, 2009.

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• Thermal power: 100 kW• Some components/structures were provided from the first upgrading of

Bandung reactor (1971)• First critical in 1979• Licence: valid up to 2010• Operation length: 26 years

2. MPR RSG-GA Siwabessy research reactor in Serpong Banten, West Java.

• Location: Serpong, Banten (West Java)• Type: Multi Purpose Reactor• Thermal power: 30 MW• Fuel: U3Si2Al• First critical in 1987• Licence: valid up to 2020• Operation length: 18 years

3. Triga 2000 nuclear research reactor in Bandung, West Java.

• Location: Bandung, West Java• Type: TRIGA reactor• Thermal power: 2000 kW• First critical in 1964 (250 kW)• Upgraded to 1000 kW in 1971• Upgraded to 2000 kW in 2000• Licence: valid up to 2016• Operation length: 34 years

In addition to the nuclear reactors above, Indonesia also has a nuclear complex called the Pasar Jumat Nuclear Complex which located in South Jakarta which includes the Center for the Application of Isotope and Radiation Technology, the Center for Radiation Safety and Metrology Technology, the Centre for the Development of Nuclear Geology, the Centre for Education and Training, and the Centre for the Dissemination of Nuclear Science and Technology. Facilities in the complex include three units of cobalt-60 gamma irradiators, two electron-

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beam machines, a laboratory for uranium processing, radiation-measuring equipment and an education and training facility.75

Indonesia also has research and development facilities. First one is an Exploration Area in West Kalimantan This exploration area and test mining was opened in 1975 in Kalan, West Kalimantan. The activities conducted consist of research in exploration and test mining of nuclear ores, investigation and process technology of radioactive mineral reserves. The facilities in this area are an underground test mining tunnel with 618 m deep and a unit for processing uranium ore into yellow cake. The second one is a Monitoring Station for Micro Earthquakes and Meteorology. It was built in 1982 built and operated in the Ujung Watu village in Jepara - Central Java. The micro earthquakes monitoring station records the earthquakes data originating from volcanic as well as tectonic earthquakes, whereas the meteorology station is applied to record air pressure, wind speed and direction, air temperature, humidity and cosmic radiation level.

Public opinion: The pros and cons of nuclear power plant in Indonesia

Dramatic disasters such as the 1986 Chernobyl explosion in the old Soviet Union have shrouded nuclear power with controversy. Plumes of radioactive clouds drifted over Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, resulting in the relocation of more than 336,000 people and radioactive poisoning to this day. The 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear accident near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (in which no one died), inspired a movement against nuclear power in the United States have more of less influenced public opinion about nuclear power plant in Indonesia.

Indonesia's most vocal environmental group, WALHI76 (Wahana Lingkungan Hidup Indonesia, or the Indonesian Forum for Environment), says even a small

75 National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) Indonesia

76 www.walhi.or.id/eng

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leak or nuclear accident at the proposed site of Java's Mount Muria would potentially affect tens of millions of people. (Java, home to 65% of Indonesia's population, is one of the most densely populated islands in the world.)

Indonesian society has many contra aspects in nuclear power plant establishment which we can summary them into these factors7778:

1. NPP is too risky to be established in Indonesia because of Indonesian location in ring of fire.

2. The establishment of NPP is not too urgent since Indonesia can develop other source of energy such as wind, water, and geothermal.

3. The human resource of Indonesia is weak so it people are concern about the operation of the NPP in terms of discipline and the maintenance.

4. The NPP waste management.

To answer those worries of Indonesian society, many writings and articles have been wrote by NPP experts as described in the following paragraphs.

Dr Carunia Mulya Firdausy (Centre for economic and Development Studies-Indonesian Institute of Sciences) says that to build a NPP is not easy; we need a high degree of accuracy, detail, and carefulness. Not only Indonesia needs to meet the technical requirements but also non technical requirements: 3S (Safety, Safeguard, and Secure) enacted by IAEA. Indonesia also needs to pass ten steps from feasibility study on necessity of NPP to commercial operation (IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No NG-G -3.1, 2007). Due to that long, detailed, and careful process, to build a NPP with capacity of 1,000 Mwe, we need at least 6-

77 PLTN Di Indonesia [NPP in Indonesia], http://rifai124.student.umm.ac.id/2010/02/12/pltn-di-indonesia/

78 Carunia Mulya Firdausy, Sampai Kapan Kita Harus Menggantung Pembangunan PLTN? [Until When We Have to Postpone NPP Project?], April 7 2010, http://www.ristek.go.id/?module=News%20News&id=5676.

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10 years. If Indonesia decides to start establishing NPP, it is ascertained that the location of the NPP is safe.79

According to Dr. Hudi Hastowo, the chairman of National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia when we visited his office in Jakarta in February 2010 said, “Speaking about nuclear power in Indonesia, we don’t have sufficient resources to solve our needs at the moment. But we are thinking about our mission, 10 years from now. Our energy supply is still low and our population is comparatively high. We have more or less 200 million people. In the long run we have to produce a lot of electricity. Now we are depending on coal; we don’t use oil much. Our coal production is from north of Java Island. The most thickly populated area and energy consuming area is Java. One of the solutions must be nuclear power. We are planning to have a lot of renewable energy such as Geo-thermal. But for Java Island, I think in the near future it is not going to be enough. So the goal is that in 2025 we must reduce our dependency on oil to less than 20%. And then coal should be reduced by 33% (assuming) and gas will be 50%. So, new and renewable energy will be more than 17%. This is where the emphasis should be.”80

It is clear that Indonesian governments has thought and reconsider many things in terms of the most possible renewable energy as energy resources and decided to have NPP in Indonesia to satisfy all the energy demand in the society.

In case of human resource in NPP, actually Indonesia has prepared its human resource since 1980 corresponding with the establishment of RSG-GAS (GA Siwabessy research reactor in Serpong, Jakarta). Indonesia also formed Nuclear Engineering Department at Gajah Mada University, Nuclear Instrument and Radiation Protection major in Department of Physics at the University of Indonesia, and also Nuclear Engineering Experts Education (now School of Nuclear Engineering Experts) are some of the preparation steps taken by Indonesian government to prepare its human resources to establish the NPP in Indonesia along with the training programs in overseas country such as Korea, Japan, Germany, and United States. Unfortunately due to the uncertainty of NPP

79 Ibid.

80 BATAN Interview, appendix B.

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in Indonesia, the Nuclear Engineering Department at Gajah Mada University was changed to Department of Physic Engineering, the Nuclear Instrument and Radiation Protection major in Department of Physics at the University of Indonesia formally has now closed but now Indonesia still has education activity about nuclear science and technology in Bandung Institute of Technology as part of Department of Physics (undergraduate, master, and doctoral program) and also at Gajah Mada University (doctoral program).

The alumnae from those programs above are now mostly working at BAPETEN, BATAN, or other government or private department in nuclear industry (health, food, etc). It is a pity that some of the alumnae felt that their career was not developed so they decided to move to another industry.

According to Mr. Petit, the International Cooperation Officer in BAPETEN when we visited his office in February 2010, in 2009 alone there were at least 5 training courses and in each training program there were four to five representatives from BAPETEN were sent to Korea for short training course in KINS. This can be the answer for Indonesian society’s doubt of NPP human resource. Indonesia is ready for NPP in regards of human resource and it’s a good opportunity to preserve the knowledge and know-how about nuclear from the alumnae to the new and young human resources.81

Despite of the cons opinions many of Indonesian citizen pro with nuclear power plan. Recently the former president, Dr. B.J. Habibie became a speaker in a discussion of the importance of the nuclear power plant establishment in Indonesia. In that discussion he tried to convince the audiences that nuclear power plant needs to be established to overcome present national energy crisis and the future energy problem.

One of the member in Indonesia People’s Representative Council in commission I Mr. Muhammad Najib says that Indonesia People’s Representative Council supports the realization of NPP, it is depends on the government whether they will make it as priority or not. The contradictive

81 BAPETEN Interview, appendix A.

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aspects in public environment is because Indonesia society is not understand well of how importance and the benefits of NPP as alternative energy.In December 2009, Indonesia Engineer Association through its chairman Mr. Muhammad Said Didu in Jakarta said that the key of country’s competitiveness is on its electricity. According to him the Indonesia cannot count on coal, gas, and other conventional materials as its energy resource in the future because if we see from economic point of view, the energy usage of NPP is much cheaper compare to other energy resource.82

The pro supports of NPP in Indonesia also comes from five NGO’s which stated in their Joint Statement,”NPP Guarantee National Electricity Supply Resilience”. The five NGO’s are Masyarakat Peduli Energi dan Lingkungan (MPEL) - Energy and Environment Awareness Society, Himpunan Masyarakat Nuklir Indonesia (HIMNI) –Indonesian Nuclear Society, Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia (METI) - Indonesian Renewable Energy Society, Institut Energi Nuklir (IEN) - Nuclear Energy Institute, and Woman in Nuclear Indonesia (WIN). Those NGO’s has done a study that consider energy resilience, economic, technology, culture, social, and environment aspects. The result of the study is declared at “Joint Statement” forum. The aim of the forum is to awake the decision makers that now NPP is badly needed and should be able to operate in Indonesia to overcome the national electricity supply problem83.

Prospects for nuclear usage in Indonesia

82 Ingin Bersaing Dengan Negara Bangun Reaktor Nuklir Solusinya. [If We Want to Compete with Other Country NPP Establishment is the Solution], February 2010, http://www.suaramedia.com/berita-nasional/17075-ingin-bersaing-dengan-negara-maju-bangun-rektor-nuklir-solusinya.html.

83 Lima LSM Dukung Pembangunan PLTN [Five NGO’s Support NPP Construction], February 3 2010, http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2010/02/03/14582251/Lima.LSM.Dukung.Pembangunan.PLTN

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As explained above, Indonesia has many reasons in building nuclear power plant. From energy stability, law, human resource, and environment aspects, as well as former studies, many factors support the construction of NPP.

Indonesia is ready for NPP and has done many preparations to built one. The issuance of Presidential Instruction no 1 year 2010 also supports the NPP to be constructed in Indonesia as soon as possible. Further about current state of NPP in Indonesia will be discussed more detailed in section 4.

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Section 3 Regulatory Bodies for nuclear power and radioactive materials

Figure 7. Relationship of related institutions in NPP development84

Figure 7 shows the relationship of related institutions involved in the development of nuclear power plant in Indonesia. The government regulates economic and financing policies through Coordinator Ministry of Economic, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of State Corporation; regulates energy and electricity policies through Ministry of Energy; and regulates science and technology policies through Ministry of Science and Technology. In implementation, the government is represented by General Directorate of Electricity and Energy Utilization (DJLPE) with the supervision from BAPETEN for nuclear regulation and licensing and with technology provided by BATAN. Both BAPETEN and BATAN are supported by national and

84 Pudjanto, Basuki Agung, PLTN Untuk Hari Esok Kita [NPP for Our Tomorrow], presented at: “Menyongsong Pembangunan PLTN di Indonesia” [ Welcoming NPP Construction in Indonesia] Seminar, Vienna, Austria, 27 March 2010.

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international institutions, universities as well as local government to perform their tasks.

In the field, nuclear energy program implementing organization (NEPIO) with owner performs site execution, construction, witnessing, O&M, and conduct power purchase agreement. Those activities are financially supported by government via DJLPE, in which the financing are distributed among NEPIO and owner with foreign or local investor and design/technology vendor. To comply with environment regulation and licensing, NEPIO and owner are coordinating with Indonesian environmental control agency (BAPEDAL) and State Ministry of Environment. To conduct socialization with local community, developing community and arranging spaces, NEPIO and owner shall also coordinated with local government.

In this report, the author will explain about the role of BATAN and BAPETEN as two government institutions that are in charge of establishing nuclear power plant in Indonesia.

BATAN (Badan Atom Nasional – National Nuclear Energy Agency)

In accordance with Act No. 10 Year 1997 on Nuclear Energy and the latest Presidential Decree No. 64 Year 2005, BATAN has been stipulated as a Non Departmental Government Institution which is under and responsible to the President. BATAN is led by a Chairman and its programs are under the coordination of the Minister for Research and Technology. The main duties of BATAN are to conduct research, development and the beneficial applications of nuclear energy in accordance with the laws and regulations. 85

85 BATAN website, http://www.batan.go.id/en2008/

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Figure 10. Organization structure of BATAN

As shown in Figure 10, the chairman of BATAN supervises Inspectorate, Executive Secretariat, four Deputies as well as Center for Nuclear Standardization and Quality Assurance, Center for Education and Training and Polytechnic Institute of Nuclear Technology.

The Executive Secretariat supervises Bureau of Planning, Bureau of Human Resources, Bureau of Cooperation, Legal and Public Relations and Bureau of General Affairs. The four Deputies are: Deputy Chairman for Basic Research and Application that supervises Center for Technology of Radiation Safety and Metrology, Center for Technology Accelerator and Material Process, Center for Nuclear Technology of Material and Radiometry, and Center for Technology of Nuclear Industry Material; Deputy Chairman for Development of Nuclear Technology and Energy supervises Center for Development of Nuclear Energy, Center for Reactor Technology and Nuclear Safety, Center for Multipurpose Reactor, and Center for Development of Nuclear Informatics; Deputy Chairman for Development of Nuclear Material Cycle Technology and Engineering supervises Center for Engineering of Nuclear Appliances, Center for Development of Nuclear Geology, Center for Nuclear Fuel Technology and Center for Radioactive Waste Technology; and Deputy Chairman for Research

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and Development Result Utilization and Nuclear Science and Technology supervises Center for Partnership in Nuclear Technology, Center for Dissemination of Nuclear Science and Technology, Center for Application of Isotope and Radiation Technology, and Center for Radioisotopes and Radiopharmaceuticals.

BATAN employs 110 personnel with PhD degrees, 295 with Master’s degrees, 1,035 with Bachelor’s degrees and 570 with ‘diploma certificates.In conducting its duties, BATAN has the following functions:

• To assess and prepare the national policy in the field of research, development, and the beneficial uses of nuclear energy,

• To coordinate functional activities in implementing the all duties of BATAN,

• To support and foster activities of government institutions in the field of research, development and beneficial uses of nuclear energy,

• To conduct general administrative services in the field of general planning, administration, organization and procedures, personnel management, financing, archiving, procurement as well as education and training.

Vision: realization of safe and reliable nuclear science and technology to actuate and accelerate the pursuit of welfare

Mission:

1. Research, development and engineering of nuclear science and technology for energy and non energy industry

2. Dissemination of proven results of research and development in nuclear science and technology

3. Total quality management for the satisfaction of all stakeholders Main Duties and Function

Besides BATAN, other government body who is related to nuclear uses in Indonesia is BAPETEN.

3.2. BAPETEN (Badan Pengawas Tenaga Nuklir – Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency)

The Supervision of nuclear energy uses in Indonesia is inevitable and is necessary. With the continuous development of nuclear technology and its ever expanding uses in the community, supervision is aimed at ensuring public safety

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and the environmental safety. Based on the Law, BAPETEN carries out the government obligations in overseeing the uses of nuclear energy. 86

The Nuclear Energy Act of 1997 mandated BAPETEN to create regulations, issue licenses, conduct inspections and take enforcement measures to ensure compliance of users of nuclear power to safety rules and regulations.

Figure 8. Organization structure of BAPETEN

BAPETEN is an institution that is directly under and responsible to President. The chairman of BAPETEN supervises two Deputies and Executive Secretary as well as Internal Auditor. Deputy for Nuclear Safety Assessment supervises the directorate for regulation of nuclear installation and materials (NIM), directorate for regulation of radiation facilities and radioactive materials (RFRM), regulator assistant center for NIM and regulator assistant center for RFRM. Deputy for Licensing and Inspection supervises directorate for Licensing of NIM, directorate for Licensing of RFRM, directorate for

86 BAPETEN website, http://www.bapeten.go.id/

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inspection of NIM, directorate for inspection of RFRM and directorate for engineering and emergency preparation. The Executive Secretary supervises General Affairs, Bureau for Legalization and Organization and Planning Bureau as well as Training and Education Unit. Figure 8 shows the overall structure.

Based on the statutory duties, functions, legal authorities, and the existing problems and arisen challenges mentioned earlier, the vision and mission of BAPETEN of 2010–2014 are defined as follows:

Vision: to ensure the safety, security, and peace in the use of nuclear energyMission: to maintain professional conduct of regulatory control of nuclear energy

Figure 9 BAPETEN’s Main Tasks87

The main task of BAPETEN is to conduct surveillance of all activities that use nuclear energy by managing the regulation, licensing and inspections. As shown in Figure 9, those regulatory functions are supported by technical supports.

To undergo those main tasks, the function of BAPETEN can be defined as follows:

1. Formulation of national policies in the field of supervision of the use of nuclear energy; preparation and creation of national plans and programs in the field of supervision of nuclear energy utilization;

2. The management and preparation of regulations and the review of the implementation of nuclear safety, radiation safety, and security of nuclear materials;

87 GOVERNMENTAL AND REGULATORY INFRASTRUCTURE, Directorate for Nuclear Installation and Material Regulation. BAPETEN

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3. Implementation of licensing and inspection of construction and operation of nuclear reactors, nuclear installations, nuclear materials facilities, and sources of radiation as well as the development of nuclear preparedness; implementation of cooperation in the field of monitoring of the use of nuclear energy by government agencies or other organizations both inside and outside of the territory of Indonesia;

4. Implementation of surveillance and control of nuclear materials; implementation of guidance and information concerning the efforts to ensure the safety and health of the workers, the members of the public as well as environmental protection;

5. Implementation of the improvement of human resources development and quality in the BAPETEN; implementation of administrative guidance, control and supervision within BAPETEN environment;

6. Implementation of other tasks given by the President.

Nuclear Power Plant Establishment in Indonesia

Figure 10. Hierarchy of Nuclear Regulations in Indonesia88

Nuclear Regulation in Indonesia is based on four hierarchies of law and regulation. As shown in figure 10, the highest hierarchy is the Nuclear Energy

88 BAPETEN (Nuclear Energy Control Board of Indonesia)

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Act 10 Year 1997. It is mandated by Government Regulation No. 43 Year 2006 regarding the Licensing of Nuclear Reactor. The government regulation is then mandated by Presidential regulations and finally mandated by Regulations of Chairman of BAPETEN.

Figure 11. Nuclear Power Plant Establishment Process in Indonesia

Commercial construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear reactor shall be performed by any company, State Company, co-operative, and/or private company, as mentioned in the Act No 10 of 1997. Regarding the operation of NPP, the operator should apply for license or permit from BAPETEN for each site, for construction, for commissioning, for operation and for decommissioning.To establish nuclear power plant in Indonesia, the applicant shall follow the application process as process chart shown in Figure 11. First the applicant applies for site license to BAPETEN that check for the completeness of document for one month. If the documents are not complete, the applicant shall complete the documents and reapply for the site license. If the documents are complete, the documents are then technically reviewed for one year. From the technical review, the application may be rejected or the applicant may have four years to repair their application. Otherwise, if the application is accepted the site

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license is published with whole life period validity, in which the applicant can then apply for construction permit.

Licensing

The construction, operation and decommissioning of non-commercial power reactor or non-commercial non-power reactor are carried out by the promoting body which can cooperate with other government agencies and states universities. And the construction, operation and decommissioning of commercial power or non power, such as a nuclear power plant, is established by Ministry of energy after consulting with House of Parliament.

The operating organization that performs the constructing, operation and decommissioning nuclear reactor as stipulated in the article 5 shall have a license from Chairman of BAPETEN.

Figure 12. The License Process of Nuclear Power Plant Establishment in Indonesia89

89 Governmental and Regulatory Infrastructure, Directorate for Nuclear Installation and Material Regulation, 2010.

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As shown in Figure 12, the license is issued in several stages, including: (a) site licensing, (b) construction license, (c) commissioning license, (d) operating license, and (e) decommissioning license as can be seen from the figure above.

Site License: before submitting the applications of site license, the applicant shall perform site evaluation which can only be conducted after fulfilling the requirements on site evaluation. For applying site license, the applicant shall submit the application to the chairman of BAPETEN. After receiving the site license application document, BAPETEN will review and assess the application. If the application fulfill the requirement and technical acceptance criteria BAPETEN will stipulated the license for the site.

Construction License: the applicant shall submit the application for the construction license in a period of maximum 4 (four) years after the issuance of site license. This application should be submitted to the Chairman of BAPETEN along with the administrative and technical requirement. After receiving the construction license application document further BAPETEN will review and assets the application. If the application fulfill the requirement and technical acceptance criteria, BAPETEN will stipulated the license for construction. The construction license is valid for maximum 5 (five) years since the issued date.

Commissioning License: the application for commissioning license could be submitted to the Chairman of BAPETEN when: (a) the construction activities have been completed; (b) the applicant has the license to utilize nuclear material; and (c) the operator has the license to operate the reactor. This application should be submitted to the chairman along with the administrative and technical requirements. After receiving the Commissioning license application document further BAPETEN will review and assess the application. If the application fulfill the requirement and technical acceptance criteria, BAPETEN will stipulated the license for Commissioning. The Commissioning license is valid for maximum two years since the issued date.

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Operation License: the applicant may submit the application for operation license to the chairman of BAPETEN when: (a) the Commissioning activities have completed; (b) the applicant has the license to utilize nuclear material; and (c) the operator has the license to operate the reactor. This application should be submitted to the chairman along with the administrative and technical requirements. After receiving the operation license application document, BAPETEN will review and assess the application. If the application fulfill the requirements and technical acceptance criteria, BAPETEN will stipulated the license for Operation. The Operation license is valid for maximum 40 (forty) year since the issued date.

Combined Operation License: for nuclear reactor with modular design certificate by vendor regulatory body, the applicant may submit the application for combined license after possessing site license. The combined license is a combination of construction, commissioning and operation license. The applicant shall submit the application of combine license within maximum two years since the issuance of the site license. If the applicant does not apply for combined license within two years, the site license is automatically acknowledged as not valid. This application is submitted to the chairman along with the administrative and technical requirements. After receiving the operation license application document, BAPETEN will conduct review and assess the application. If the application fulfill the requirements and technical acceptance criteria, BAPETEN will stipulated the Combine Operation license. The Combine Operation license is valid for maximum 45 (forty five) year since the issued date.

Decommissioning License: shall be performed when: (a) Nuclear employer apply, before operation license or combined operation license expires; (b) Nuclear employers will not renew the operation license or combined operation license; (c) Application for operation and combine operation license renewal is refused by the chairman of BAPETEN based on the safety and/or security problems; or (d) There is severe accident or an event threatening the safety and/or security of nuclear reactor operation. This application is submitted to the

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chairman along with the administrative and technical requirements. After receiving the operation license application document, BAPETEN will review and assess the application. If the application fulfills the requirements and technical acceptance criteria, BAPETEN will stipulate the license for decommissioning. The Decommissioning license is valid from the issued date until the declaration of the free radiation and contamination release of site is issued by the Chairman of BAPETEN.

Termination of License: is not applied to the site and decommissioning license and subject to: (a) the expiration of the license; (b) the nuclear employer goes bankrupt; (c) license revoked by BAPETEN; or (d) applied by the nuclear employers.

In the case the license termination as mentioned above, the nuclear employers still have the responsibility to perform the decommissioning and management of nuclear reactor, nuclear fuel, and radioactive waste complying with applied regulations.

As mentioned above, along with the application license application, the applicant should also submit the administrative requirements and technical requirements. Administrative requirements are: legal documents of operator establishment and other related government licenses. Technical requirements are depends on the type of the license but in general they consist of: site evaluation report, main reactor data, preliminary design information questionnaire, and quality assurance program implementation report.

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Section 4 History of nuclear energy, nuclear research and international collaboration

History of Nuclear Energy in Indonesia

The activities to commission NPP, as chart shown in Figure 13, can be traced back to the year of 1954 where the government established the state committee for radioactivity. Four years later the Atomic Energy Council and Atomic Energy Agency were established followed by establishment of BATAN in 1964. The first reactor in Indonesia, Triga Mark II, started to operate in 1965 with power of 250 KW which upgraded to 1 MW by 1971.

In 1970 the government signed non proliferation treaty (NPT), followed by establishment of commission for preparation of NPP construction in 1972 and finally in 1978 the NPT was ratified by parliament. In the following year the research reactor, Kartini, was operated with power of 100 KW.

The improvement was made during the late eighties despite the nuclear accident in Chernobyl in 1986. In 1987 the RSG-GAS started to operate with power of 30 MW and installation of burn element of research reactor production was performed, followed by the operation of radioactive waste management installation in the next year. In 1989 operation of power reactor experimental FE installation was conducted and BAKOREN council appointed BATAN to perform site and feasibility study of NPP as well as the metallurgy radio installation, nuclear safety installation and nuclear mechano-electric nuclear installation started to operate in 1990 and followed by the site and feasibility study of NPP for Muria Peninsula in 1991.

In 1995, in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of Republic of Indonesia, BATAN has achieved “Whole Indonesian Core” for GAS Multipurpose Reactor. In 1996, the feasibility study of NPP has finished. In 1997 the nuclear energy act was enacted which lead to the separation of executor function by BATAN and supervision function by BAPETEN in 1998. In 2000, the Triga Mark II research reactor was upgraded to 2 MW, followed by inauguration of Polytechnic Institute of Nuclear Technology in Yogyakarta in the following year. In 2003, several activities was conducted: the result of the “Comprehensive Assessment of Different Energy Sources for Electricity

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Generation in Indonesia” was submitted to the President, the achievement of 10% of the total national superior food crop variety, and the begining of operation of the 350 keV, 10 mA Electron Beam Machine in the Yogyakarta Nuclear Complex.

By 2005, the nuclear power was included in the national electricity general planning of 2005-2025, followed by national energy policy 2005-2025, presidential regulation no. 5 year 2006. And finally in 2007 the nuclear power was included in Law No. 17 year 2007 regarding the National Long=Term Development Planning.

In 2007-2008 there were several thousand citizens demonstrate in Muria against nuclear power and in April 2009 Mr. Yudhoyono in his president elective campaign appears to back off from nuclear-energy plans, saying Indonesia would first focus on developing existing resources before nuclear energy would be considered.

The recent progress of nuclear power plant is stated on the Presidential Instruction no 1 year 2010 which stated that by the end of year 2010, Indonesian government through Ministry of Research and Technology together with the National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN) should communicate publicly to Indonesian society about nuclear power plant thoroughly and explain about the planning so Indonesian society will not get wrong perception like what happened in the pass.

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Figure 13. Chart of Timeline of Activities Related to NPP Introduction

International Collaboration in Nuclear Energy

Indonesia has collaborated extensively internationally in order to develop its nuclear baseThe first international collaboration between Indonesia and foreign country happened in 1960 after Jakarta signed a cooperative bilateral agreement with the US for the development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes in Indonesia. Under the program, US firm General Atomics supplied Indonesia with its first research reactor of a TRIGA Mark II type and LEU fuel for it which later called Bandung Nuclear Complex. In the same year Indonesia also signed a nuclear-cooperation agreement with Soviet Union and Moscow supplied equipment for a 1-2 MWt research reactor to be built at Serpong.

In 1978-79 a feasibility study was conducted by Nucleare Italiana Reattori Avanzati and BATAN with the assistance of the Italian government. The study and follow-up assessments concluded that nuclear power would be economically attractive from 2000, and it would require a ten-year lead time.

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The next collaboration is in 1991 when BATAN contracted Japanese consulting company NEWJEC Inc. to perform a more detailed site selection and evaluation study. In 1996, NEWJEC’s study concluded, inter alia, that the cost of generating electricity from a 600 MWe nuclear power plant was competitive with the cost of generating from a similar-sized coal fired plant, and that Ujung Lemahabang in the village of Balong, around 20 kilometers northeast of Jepara would be the best site for the first plant. Ujung Grenggengan, also in Balong, and Ujung Watu a few kilometers east were identified as the best alternative sites.

These NPP project was deferred due to the discovery of additional gas sources in a large field northeast of the Natuna Island in the South China Sea in 1990 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998.90

Indonesia also has collaborated extensively internationally in order to develop its nuclear base with United States, Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Korea, Russia, and other countries. The detailed collaborations are as follows91:

1. United States of America

• Agreement for Cooperation between The United States of America and The Republic of Indonesia Concerning Peaceful Use of Atomic Energy, a G to G cooperation signed on June 30 , 1980.

• Protocol Amending the Agreement for Cooperation Between The Government of The United States of America concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, signed in Jakarta, Februar y 20 , 2004 effective until De c ember 31 , 2031.

• Memorandum of Understanding between BATAN and Westinghouse Electric Corporation on The AP600, signed on October 27 , 1989 .

• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) BATAN-GE Nuclear Energy, USA and Mitsui & Company Limited, signed on November 8 , 1990.

90 “Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia”, pg. 65, 2009.

91 IAEA MTCD Publication, Country Profiles: Indonesia, July 2009, http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/cnpp2009/countryprofiles/Indonesia/Indonesia2003.htm

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• Letter of Understanding Batan Participation in SBWR Program, signed on Ma rch 27 , 1991.

• Arrangement between The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and The Indonesian National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN) for Cooperation in Nuclear Safety Matters, signed on O c tober 28 , 1992 .

• Arrangement between The Government of The Republic of Indonesia and Government of The United States of America and The IAEA for The Transfer of Enriched Uranium for a Research Reactor in Indonesia (Fourth Supply Agreement), signed on Januar y 15 , 1993.

• Arrangement between The International Atomic Energy Agency and the Government of the Republic of Indonesia and the Government of the United States of America concerning The Transfer of Enriched Uranium for the Fabrication of Targets to the Production of Radioisotopes for Medical Purpose (Project and Supply Agreement), signed on Januar y 15 , 1993.

• Program Participant Agreement between Westinghouse Electric Corporation and National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN), signed on November 24 , 1994 .

• Program Participant Agreement BATAN-Westinghouse Electric Company signed on November 2 4 , 1994.

• Nuclear Power Plant Technology Development Agreement between Badan Tenaga Atom Nasional and General Electric Company, signed on Mar ch 24 , 1995.

• Agreement between General Electric Company and National Atomic Energy Agency of Indonesia for the on-the-job-Training (OJT) Under the ABWR First-of-a-Kind Engineering (FOAKE) Programme, signed on April 11 , 1995 .

• Nuclear Power Plant Technology Development Agreement between Badan Tenaga Atom Nasional and General Electric Company, signed on April 13 , 1995 .

• Agreement for Join Study on the Application of an Advance Boiling Water Reactor in The Republic of Indonesia between BATAN (National Atomic Energy Agency) and The General Electric Company in Cooperation with Hitachi, Ltd, Mitsui & Co., Ltd and Toshiba Corporation, signed on Augusts 16 , 1996 .

2. Australia:• Agreement between Government of The Republic of Indonesia and The

Government of Australia Concerning Cooperation in Nuclear Science and Technology, signed on November 11 , 1997.

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• Memorandum of Understanding between The Government of The Republic Indonesia and The Government of Australia relating to the Nuclear Technical Assistance Project in Indonesia, signed on Februar y 19 , 1988 .

• Safeguards-in-Confidence Proposed Collaboration on the Further Development of Remote Monitoring Techniques in Support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), signed on Augusts 4 , 1998.

• Agreement between The Government of The Republic of Indonesia and The Government of Australia for Cooperation in Science Research and Technological Development, signed on Jul y 11 , 2005.

3. Canada:• Agreement between The Government of The Republic of Indonesia and

The Government of Canada Concerning the Peaceful Uses of The Nuclear Energy, a G to G cooperation signed on Jul y 12 , 1982.

• Memorandum of Agreement between National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN) and The Atomic Control Board of Canada, signed on November 14 , 1994.

• Memorandum of Agreement between Atomic of Canada Limited (AECL) and National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN), signed on November 21 , 1995.

• Technical Cooperation Agreement between National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN) and Atomic Energy Agency of Canada Limited/Energie Atomique Du Canada Limitee, signed on Januar y 17 , 1996.

• Administrative Arrangement between The Indonesia Atomic Energy Agency and Atomic Energy Control Board of Canada for Technical Cooperation and Exchange of Information in Nuclear Regulatory Matters, signed on Januar y 17 , 1996.

• Design Attachment Letter of Understanding BATAN-AECL for the Purposes of Familiarization with the Design of Canada, signed on De c ember 7 , 1998.

• “Computer Code Licensing Agreement between AECL and BATAN” Transfer of Cathena Code to BATAN, signed on Jun e 11 , 1999.

4. Germany:• Agreement between The Government of The Republic of Indonesia and

The Government of The Federal Republic of Germany on Cooperation Regarding the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, a G to G cooperation signed on Jul y 14 , 1976.

• Agreement between Badan Tenaga Atom Nasional and Kernforschungsanlage Julich Gmbh, signed on Januar y 22 , 1987.

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• Memorandum of Understanding BATAN-Siemens AG signed on Augusts 18 , 1992.

5. France:• Agreement between The Badan Tenaga Atom Nasional and

Rhecommisariat a L’energie Atomique Concerning Scientific and Technical Cooperation in the Field of Nuclear Energy for Peaceful Purposes, a G to G cooperation signed on April 2 , 1980.

• Memorandum of Understanding BATAN/SGN, signed on April 4 , 1996. Memorandum of Understanding Between the National Atomic Energy Agency of Indonesia and La Socite Generale Pour Les Techniques Nouvelles (Identify Issues and the Creation of the Joint Venture), signed on April 4 , 1996.

6. Italy:• Agreement between The Government of The Republic of Indonesia and

The Government of The Republic of Italy on Cooperation Regarding the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, a G to G cooperation signed on M arch 17 , 1980.

7. Japan:• Agreement between The Government of The Republic of Indonesia and

The Government of Japan on Scientific and Technological Cooperation, signed on Januar y 12 , 1980.

• Agreement between MITSUI & Co. Ltd., Japan and National Atomic Energy of Indonesia regarding the Participation of BATAN on the Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR) Program, Januar y March 27 , 1991.

• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) Muria Consortium (MURIA) and PT. Citacinas, signed on Mar ch 13 , 2000 in Jakarta.

• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Batan and Mitsubishi for a Joint Study On 1000 MWe Class PWR, signed on November 21 , 1997.

• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between BATAN and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. on Strengthening Cooperation Relationship through Exchange of Information for the Successful Introduction of Nuclear Power Plants in Indonesia, signed on Jul y 14 , 2006.

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8. Korea:• Agreement between The Government of The Republic Indonesia and The

Government of The Republic of Korea for The Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, a G to G cooperation signed on De c ember 4 , 2006 in Jakarta and in the process of ratification by the Government of Indonesia .

• Agreement between the National Atomic Energy Agency of Indonesia and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, signed on April 7 , 1995 in Taejon , Republic of Korea .

• Cooperation for 1997/1998 between National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN) and Korea Electric Power Corporation, signed on Jul y 11 , 1997.

• Memorandum of Understanding between the National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) of the Republic of Indonesia and the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) of the Republic Korea for the Cooperation on the Nuclear Power Development in Indonesia, signed on Februar y 6 , 2004.

9. Russia:• Agreement between The Government of The Republic Indonesia and The

Government of The Russian Federation on the Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, a G to G cooperation signed on December 1, 2006 in Moscow, Russia, and in the process of ratification by the Government of Indonesia.

Current nuclear power projects in Indonesia

Utilization of NPPs as a part of national energy mix was noted in the Presidential Regulation No. 5 in 2006 on the National Energy Policy, as well as in the Act No.17 in 2007 on the National Long-term Development Plan for 2005-2025. This last Act of 2007 mentions that the introduction of nuclear power should be utilized with high consideration of safety factor. According to these two legal documents, NPPs utilization may be initiated within the period mentioned.92

Indonesia plans to have in operation a 2,000 MW nuclear generation plant by 2017. This would serve the main Java-Bali grid (meeting 75 per cent of the

92 IAEA MTCD Publication, Country Profiles: Indonesia, July 2009, http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/cnpp2009/countryprofiles/Indonesia/Indonesia2003.htm

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country's electricity demand), where the total capacities is projected to increase from 15,000 MW in 2006 to 59,000 in 2026 MW. Development would be supported by BATAN. The Indonesian plans are a reactivation of proposals put forward more than a decade ago, when plans for an initial plant on the Muria Peninsula in central Java were indefinitely deferred in early 1997. The idea of a nuclear plant on the Muria Peninsular resurfaced again around 2002-03 with the country, enjoying stability again and a stronger economic outlook, was facing once again the task of matching generation expansion with demand growth. The government has said that it has $8 billion earmarked for four nuclear plants of total 6,000 MW to be in operation by 2025. Under current plans it aims to meet two per cent of power demand from nuclear by 2017. It is anticipated that nuclear generation cost would be about 4 cents/kWh compared with 7 cents/kWh for oil and gas.

Under a 2006 Law on Nuclear Reactors the projects may be given to an Independent Power Producer to build and operate on one of three sites on the central north coast of Java. Plans call for tenders in 2008 for two 1,000 MW units, Muria 1 & 2, leading to a decision in 2010 with construction starting soon after and commercial operation from 2016 and 2017. The government says fuel services will be purchased from abroad and fuel would preferably be leased. Used fuel would be stored centrally in the medium term. Tenders for Muria units 3 & 4 are expected to be called for in 2016, for operation from 2023. Foreign companies are positioning themselves for the tenders.

In July 2007 Korea Electric Power Corporation and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Company signed a memorandum of understanding with Indonesia's PT Medco Energi Internasional for a feasibility study on building two 1,000 MW at a cost of $3 billion. Foreign governments also are promoting their country's commercial interests as well as offering to assist development from the point of view of ensuring good safety and non-weapons proliferations standards. The Indonesian Government has signed agreements with Japan and Russia with regards to these standards. The 2006 Lombok Security Treaty with Australia also includes a section on cooperation over nuclear energy. The United Nations

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International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is reported to be reviewing Indonesia's proposals.93

Figure 14. Schedule of Nuclear Power Plant Plantation94

Nuclear power plant construction planning activities based on Nuclear Act No. 10 Year 1997.

As shown in Figure 14, government and owner, utilizes:

93 Southeast Asia's nuclear power thrust: putting ASEAN's effectiveness to the test?, Article Excerpt from: http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-7837041/Southeast-Asia-s-nuclear-power.html

94 S. Soentono and R. Aziz, Expected Role of Nuclear Science and Technology to Support the Sustainable Supply of Energy in Indonesia, Progress in Nuclear Energy, page 75-81, 2008.

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• The latest study for national energy planning with nuclear option 2001 -2002• Socialization/public information, education, and community development 2003-2016• Government decision and consultation with Parliament 2004-2006• Updating of the site related data for site permit 2004-2007• Nuclear site permit 2008• Preparation of the regulation and licensing 2004-2008• Ownership establishment, utility of the plant 2006-2007• Preparation of updating-FS, SER, BIS and PSAR draft 2005-2007• Bidding, negotiation and contractual process 2007-2009• Engineering and design 2009-2011• Licensing process for sitting, construction, commissioning and commercial operation (including ‘‘AMDAL/EIAR’’) 2008-2010• Procurement of materials and services 2009-2014• Construction 2010/11-2016/17• Commissioning and commercial operation 2016/17-2018

According to above plan, the Muria NPP should have been put on tender/bid by 2008 and start to be constructed in 2010 so in 2016 the NPP can be function in 2016 with capacity of 2,000 MW but unfortunately until this second the bidding has not started yet. The most recent development is the Presidential Instruction no 1 year 2010 that instruct the ministry of Research and Technology along with National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) to conduct the socialization of NPP to Indonesian society.

Based on Government Regulation no 17 year 2007 about Mid Term Development Planning, according to Dr. Hadi Hustowo, the chairman of BATAN, all preparations to build a NPP has been conducted, from research about NPP site, education and human research training, the technology, regulations, until the budgeting. Even Japan has offered funding about two billion US dollar.95

Many countries have shown their interest in investing in Indonesia’s first NPP. Korea, Canada, Japan, Russia, United States and Iran offered to provide nuclear-technology assistance to Indonesia but all of those have not come to

95 “President Issues the Presidential Instruction about NPP Socialization”, http://www.antara.co.id/berita/1268900207/presiden-terbitkan-inpres-tentang-sosialisasi-pltn

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realization due to the regulations problem. Indonesia is still waiting for the government to put NPP in its energy planning so BATAN can start the bidding.96

Indonesia-Korea Investment Relations

Korea and Indonesia has built mature economic and cultural partnerships since establishing formal relations in 1966. Economic relations between Korea and Indonesia have been further strengthened by cooperation which in many fields: economic development; information technology; workers; energy; maritime and fisheries; forestry; tourism; small and medium enterprises; and science and technology.

On bilateral trade, Indonesia and Korea are important trading partners with one another. Total trade between Indonesia and Korea in 2008 amounted to $19.25 billion, an increase of 29.4 percent from 2007 ($14.89 billion).

Indonesian exports to Korea increased from $9.1 billion in 2007 to $11.3 billion in 2008, a growth of 24.2 percent. Imports from Korea grew by 37.5 percent, from $5.8 billion in 2007 to $7.9 billion in 2008. According to the Exim Bank of Korea, Korean FDI to Indonesia in 2007 more than doubled that of 2006 reaching $604 million, from $257 million.97

In 2008, Korean investment in Indonesia amounted to $719 million, while the cumulative value of approved Korean investment in Indonesia for the period of 1967-2008 reached $6.3 billion. At present, there are more than 2,500 Korean companies operating in Indonesia and more than 30,000 Koreans are residing there, forming the biggest foreign community in the country.

Korea was the seventh biggest foreign investor in Indonesia and topped in the number of projects. Most of the Korean investors are small- and medium-sized companies working on manufacturing such as textiles, garments, footwear, toys

96 “Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia”, pg. 72-73, 2009.

97 Korea International Trade Association

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and plastic wares.98

According to the first quarter 2009 investment realization of domestic direct data issued by BPKM of Foreign Direct Investment, Korea is in the second place of the dominant realized investment value by country in Indonesia with investment value worth 213.5 million (31 projects) after Seychelles US$ 316.7 million (2 projects) . This investment is excluding investment in Oil and Gas, Banking, Non Bank Financial Institution, Insurance, Leasing, Mining in Terms of Contracts of Work, Coal Mining in Terms of Agreement of Work, investment which licenses issued by technical / sectoral agency, Porto folio as well as household investment.99

Indonesia-Korea Diplomatic Relations

Korea and Indonesia have had a close relationship since formal diplomatic relations were established between the two countries in 1973. Since 1981, the presidents of Korea and of Indonesia have visited each other’s country for bilateral summits. Indonesia has diplomatic relations with both South and North Korea. This puts Indonesia in a special position to be able to relate to both Koreas, which few countries in the world have.Indonesia is a part of the Korea-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, which was concluded last year. Indonesia is a leader of the ASEAN, and Korea plans to expand cooperation with ASEAN in international issues, such as the North Korean nuclear problem and the ASEAN+3 frameworks.

Korea and Indonesia have had many similar experiences historically. The two countries both became independent from colonial rule after the end of World War II in 1945. Both countries went through political upheavals for most of the 20th century. Now both are republics, working toward a more fully democratic

98 Do Je-hae, “Indonesia, Korea in Mature Economic Ties”, Koreatimes ASEAN-Korea Summit article, May 31st 2009, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/special/2009/11/275_46000.html

99 Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board, http://www.bkpm.go.id/file_uploaded/REALISASI-NARASI_FEB09.pdf

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system. At the end of the last century, both countries were hit hard by the Asian economic crisis.100

Indonesia-Korea nuclear collaboration

South Korea has long engaged in Indonesia's nuclear power plant project since the mid-1990s, participating in the feasibility studies and inviting the country's key government officials in relevant fields.

In 1996, the KEPCO signed a pact with Indonesia's nuclear-power agency for technology cooperation. KEPCO officials also held workshops and other events to explain the nuclear power plant project to Indonesians on numerous occasions. In particular, Indonesia and South Korea signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the ``Promotion of Nuclear Power Plant in Indonesia'' on December 1996, when President Roh Moo-hyun made a state visit to the Southeast Asian country.

Based on Government Regulation no 17 year 2007 about Mid Term Development Planning, Indonesia has start planning to build a NPP. One of the preparations is human resource training. For HR development program, BATAN have sent personnel abroad to obtain Master/Doctoral Degrees, one of the destination is Korea. Indonesia collaborates with Korea Nuclear and Hydro Power (KHNP), Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC).101

The first nonproliferation agreement between Indonesia and Korea was signed on April 7, 1995 in Daejeon, Korea. The National Atomic Energy Agency of Indonesia and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. The next agreement is on December 4, 2006 in Jakarta and in the process of ratification by the Government of Indonesia. The agreement between The Government of The Republic Indonesia and The Government of The Republic of Korea is for the Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy.

100 Kim Sun-hyoung, “Korea-Indonesia Cultural Cooperation to PromoteBilateral Relations”, Korea Foundation Newsletter, http://newsletter.kf.or.kr/english/print.asp?no=1240

101 IAEA MTCD Publication, Country Profiles: Indonesia, July 2009, http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/cnpp2009/countryprofiles/Indonesia/Indonesia2003.htm

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In July 2007, Indonesia and South Korean companies signed a preliminary agreement to jointly develop nuclear power, under which South Korea hopes to build two 1000 MWe plants.102 This agreement followed a three-year feasibility study by South Korean and Indonesian specialists on the future for nuclear power in Indonesia. The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute has also worked with BATAN on an economic-feasibility study for two small 100MWe ‘system-integrated modular advanced reactors’ (SMART) for power and desalination on the island of Madura. Originally envisaged to start operation in 2018, this project awaits the building of a reference plant in South Korea.103

Indonesia sends many researchers to be trained in Korea. In 2009 itself, BAPETEN has sent more than 20 researchers to KINS to have short term training. Two of BAPETEN staff is studying at KAIST to obtain their Master and Doctoral degree from Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. Not only BAPETEN but BATAN also sends their staff to get training or do research

One of the examples of NPP training and workshop in Korea is the one that was held by KOICA called “NPP Technology & Project Management for Indonesia” for 15 participants as part of the Korean Government’s grant aid and technical cooperation program in 2008. The detail of the program is as follows:

• Course Title : NPP Technology & Project Management for Indonesia• Duration : Feb 17 - Mar 1, 2008 (14 days)• Venue : Seoul, Korea• Number of Participants : 14 persons from 1 country - Indonesia(14)• Training Institution : Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd• Beneficiaries: Decision makers of Nuclear area policy and mid on upper-

level from government or industries managers working for part related to nuclear area.

• Course Objectives:o To provide Indonesia, which has being prepared the introduction of the first nuclear power plant, with opportunities to taste Korea’s experience and technologies in the nuclear power projects

102 ‘Indonesia, South Korea Sign Preliminary Deal to Develop Nuclear Power Plant’, Associated Press. 25 July 2007; Ryu Jin, ‘KEPCO Eyes Nuclear Power Plant in Indonesia’, Korea Times, 24 July 2007.

103 International Nuclear Desalination Advisory Group (INDAG) to the IAEA, INDAG Newsletter, no 5, September 2005, Annex, p. 8, http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Newsletters/INDAG-NL-5.pdf; World Nuclear Association, ‘Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries’.

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o To make Indonesian friendly to Korea and build a foundation in order to participate in the nuclear power construction project of Indonesia

The similar workshop also conducted in 29 June 2007 with duration from July 1 to July 16, 2007.104 Indonesia’s attitudes towards Korean industry or government as a partner for nuclear industry is clearly described on the agreements, training, and the workshops that have been conducted for more than 10 years. KEPCO has signed an agreement with Indonesia's PLN power utility to conduct a feasibility study - with KHNP - for Indonesia's first nuclear power plant. This will probably be one or more OPR-1000 units. The Indonesian government earlier confirmed in principle approval of four 1000 MWe units on the Muria peninsula, 450 km east of Jakarta in central Java, with a view to commissioning in 2016. Although the plan now seems will be delayed due to the regulations problem, it is still good opportunities for Indonesia and Korea to collaborate in NPP establishment and maintenances.

Opportunities for Korea

Indonesia has everything needed to build its first NPP. We are still waiting for Government to state it on its General National Electricity Planning but there has been improvement in the year 2010 after the Presidential Instruction no 1 year 2010 were issued. We are closer to the realization of the first NPP in Indonesia.

With the experience from 1978 until now Korea has successfully build and develop 20 reactors, Indonesian Government through institutions like BATAN, BAPETEN, LIPI and other education institutions send their experts to further study of planning, designing, building and operating NPP appropriately. Thus by technology transfer of NPP between Korea and Indonesia the joint cooperation between two countries will be strengthen. This is the opportunities for Korea to observe how their technology can be implemented in country with different environment and an opportunity for Indonesia to learn from the expert.

.

104 http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/reframing/aust-ind-nuclear/ind-np/muria/countries/korea/#korea-indonesia-nuclear-academic

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Appendix A

Interview

Hudi Hastowo ChairmanBATAN (National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia)

2010.02.01

“Speaking about nuclear power in Indonesia, we don’t have sufficient resources to solve our needs at the moment. But we are thinking about our mission, 10 years from now. Our energy demand is still low and our population is comparatively high. We have more or less 200 million people. In the long run we have to produce a lot of electricity. Now we are depending on coal; We don’t use oil much. Our coal production from the north of Java Island. The most thickly populated area and energy consuming area is Java. One of the solutions must be nuclear power. We are planning to have a lot of renewable energy such as Geo-thermal. But for Java island, I think in the near future it is not going to be enough. It is already put in our vision that nuclear power is part of the energy mix for Indonesia in 2025.Electricity is connected to the economy. If you want to make 1% of the GDP then you can be certain that the electricity rate must grow.So the goal is that in 2025 we must reduce our dependency on oil to less than 20%. And then coal should be reduced by 33% (assuming) and gas will be 50%. So, new and renewable energy will be more than 17%. This is where the emphasis should be.

If you look at Indonesia as a whole, what percentage will be Java?

Say 60-70%

Will that still be the case in 2025?

Yes, because the population will have the same percentage (almost).

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So there will be no shift in the use of power?

Is it very difficult to predict that point? The main consideration will be how to provide energy to Java, and how to provide energy to regions outside of Java?Now our electricity ratio is around 62%. That is to say around 62% of families in Indonesia get access to electricity and the remaining 38 or so do not get the electricity.The government is trying to re distribute the generation of electricity. And it must be specific type of electricity generation. For example if we talk of the eastern part of Indonesia, we rely on wind energy. And in some regions we must rely on oil.

In the long term in terms of nuclear power, would you be interested in smaller nuclear plants outside of Java?

What do you mean by small?

Well there are ones with 1000 megawatts and below.

For our nuclear power plants the critical usage must be at least 10 times of the small capacity power plants. Even in Sumatra the capacity is less than that. So you can imagine how difficult that is.

The plan is to have plants by 2010 right? As far as I know in 2009 Indonesia signed an MOU with Korea (Republic of) about cooperation between the two nations. Is that still on? ? There exists an understanding between Korea and the Ministry of Mineral Resources, especially on the issue of new and renewable resources. So the signing collaboration between Korean nuclear power plant and Indonesia. Some experts from KSNP also visited our site to conduct a feasibility study. But this is still on the feasibility study, and not on the project implementation. When our president took office, at the time the director general of IAEA visited Indonesia. The outcome of the meeting was that Indonesia asked the IAEA to help from the technical point of view to make re-assessment of our study. It was started in 2000 and it should have been finalized in 2002. That was the plan. The result of the study was directly connected to the IAEA.

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But then at the time if you remember the Iraq War was going on. We were busy working on problems related to Iraq. And then finally the result of the study was delivered by the DG to the president to Indonesia. The result was that everything that was decided at that time had its impact. At the beginning of 2010 we planned to start the construction. But then after the report was submitted to the president, there was no further decision from the govt. And of course the start was delayed. For example if we talk about the construction, the documentation, and also the licensing aspect, takes time. So many people must prepare so many reports. As for the cooperation between KSNP and Indonesia, we see that in 2006 the government of Indonesia and the government of Korea signed the pact together: the two presidents created a joint task force. We have everything in place now. Everything can be done if the investment is there. The task force came from the need of Indonesia for a source for nuclear power plants. So part of the task force on energy was to create nuclear power plants and the other part (for which I was responsible) was to acquire new technologies for energy. So if we talk about the nuclear power plants we intend to have operation, we have to develop our R and D capability. So we have cooperation among institutes, industry and the ministry of mineral resources in Indonesia.

The plants that we have investigated are part of the proposal for 2010-2016. Do you have any new ones, In terms of bids, for example construction? Act # 17 of 2007 is related to the long-term planning for Indonesia. The acts states that by the end of 2020, we will have a nuclear power plant. So we still kept the target because it is already enacted. What we are doing now is trying to convince other people that it is already put in the act. If we do not prepare it, it means that we are not following the act. You understand that the schedule is not as we announced before but anyhow, we try to do what is stated in the act. One of our responsibilities as government officers is to ensure that the act is fulfilled.

How about Indonesian society in general? What is their attitude towards nuclear power plants? I know that many people, as I have heard of, are sort of against the nuclear power plant right. So how is BATAN handling that?

There are some Indonesian people who unfairly many of the generalizations are profoundly unfair. Indonesia is such a free country today and there is such diversity of opinions. However there are those who say whatever they want, no matter whether it is true or not. But we have to consider those in the future. Are people caring about the next generation? I don’t think so. So what we have to do is try to build confidence to the people that, “OK. We will consider everything while building

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a nuclear power plant.” Otherwise we will not have any results. We have to think of the future generation. So we need to educate the youth.

Are there any cultural or historical facts that makes Indonesia think about nuclear power? Let me ask you something. Do you know how many people have now graduated from university in Indonesia? Well, very few people. And they look at ways to sustain themselves. Now, if tomorrow we can make things better, they are the ones who will benefit. As government’s officials, we have to think about this matter. Otherwise who will care for the future? We have to reach out to students. They are the most educated and more accepting. Especially those in Sumatra and other parts of Java.

If you spoke to someone not so educated in Indonesia about nuclear power, what would be their perception?

Actually, it depends on who talks to citizens. For example, in one area, near the site of a planned nuclear power plant, the people are anti nuclear. They claim nuclear power is very dangerous. But we are members of IAEA and we will not construct nuclear power plant in a place that it is not safe. We will put it in an area where all the requirements for safety are met.

In the future, how do you imagine BATAN’s role will change?

BATAN plays a central role in the preparation of nuclear power plants in Indonesia, starting from safety issues. We are not only looking at nuclear safety with regards to energy, but also other applications for medicine and food sciences. BATAN is a government agency: our vision is to solve the problems of people. We talk about how to generate superior quality grains, bio-ethanol. We are responsible for the R&D and technical policy.

2010.02.01

Interview with BAPETEN (Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency)

Representatives from BAPETEN:

• Dr. Eng. Yus Rusdian Akhmad

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• Head of Industrial and Research Assessment Divisions

•

• Ms. Dahlia Cakrawati Sinaga

• Head of Sub-Directorate for Non-Reactor Nuclear Installation

•

• Mr. Petit Wiringgalih

• International Cooperation Officer

On the meeting, there were few facts were discussed in terms of Nuclear Power Plant establishment in Indonesia: the steps that they have accomplished, the preparation, current situation of energy power plant in Indonesia, etc.

Indonesian government and PLN (state-own electricity company) always updates its General National Electricity Planning. Up to this year the nuclear power plant has not been mentioned in the planning. If we want nuclear power plant to be established in two years, it should have been written on that planning by now. There are two key players in establishing power plant in Indonesia: ministry of energy and the PLN.

Dewan Energi Nasional (National Energy Council) has just recently formed in 2008 consists of 7 ministers and 8 from other stakeholders. If a foreign vendor wants to subsidies program, it is important that nuclear power plant is written on that planning. As far as an act, Indonesia has the act but for the assessment, it has to be written on the General National Electricity Planning.10,000 mw program (Java-Bali) is an example of a policy. Now it’s the second phase of the program. Most of it is coal and geothermal.

In Electricity act no 30, 2009, it is written that new and renewable must be promoted and the fossil fuel should be reduced. Theoretically nuclear should be successful. 1992 Indonesian government declared that Indonesia would go to nuclear era. The issue that Indonesia facing is the trained professional will soon be retired.

Indonesia sends their professional to Japan, Germany, US, French,

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In terms of Korea, what kind of relation does BAPETEN have with Korea?

BAPETEN recently has good relationship with Korea, especially KINS and we have 2 students from BAPETEN studying nuclear in KAIST. Their name is Ai (doctoral program) and Herlambang (master program).

International cooperation wise with Korea, BAPETEN has an MOU with KINS in order to exchange information and improve the human resource development. Miss Dahlia and the chairman of BAPETEN just visited KINS 2 weeks ago for nuclear liability. BAPETEN also invited the expert from Korea to present their papers on an annual seminar and there are 2 experts coming from Korea to present their papers especially on nuclear liability.

Actually KINS has distributed many things to Indonesia especially the introductory of Nuclear power plant, site evaluation, and construction of nuclear power plant. In the year 2009 there were at least 5 training courses and in each training there were 4- 5 people went to Korea.

Last week there were people from KEPCO representative in Jakarta visited BAPETEN. They had a meeting with BAPETEN’s chairman.

Except KINS does BAPETEN has other collaboration with other institute in Korea?

BAPETEN has a legal agreement only with KINS at the moment but they will have another agreement with Korean save guard KINAC (The Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control).

According to the plan of NPP in Indonesia, it looks like it will be delayed. What is the explanation?

If Indonesian government decides to have a nuclear power plant, in 2 years there will be bidding for the nuclear power plant. For the location itself, Indonesian government has spent lots of money on Muria but in the future the site might be moved to other island. Actually other island like Kalimantan requested to have a nuclear power plant with a medium scale.According to the plan, the 4 sites of nuclear power plant in Indonesia all will be in Muria.Besides Muria the other site that is considered suitable for nuclear power plant in Indonesia is Ujung Lemah Abang near Muria. Indonesia is very risky of

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earth quake and in Java area the most stabile area is north area where Muria is located. The most stable area in Indonesia would be Borneo.

The people in Muria are resistance for PLTN because Indonesia government did a mistake on the introducing nuclear power plant at the first time because when Indonesian Government prepare the nuclear power plant there, they did not tell the local what they were doing so the people were suspicious and had bad images of nuclear power plant but now Indonesian Government has done a better job on public communication.

Today’s renewable energy used in Indonesia is geothermal but the price is too costly, it reaches 9 cents per kg watt which is more expensive than coal energy. Since it is subsidies by government, Indonesia will buy it anyway. For nuclear, Indonesian government might decide 5-6 cents per kg watt.

How many years can a NPP operate?

For a nuclear power plant, it can be operated for more than 40 years, for new generation it can be operated for more than 60 years.

President Obama is scheduled to visit Indonesia sometime in 2010. When he comes to Indonesia and if he promotes nuclear power plant to Indonesia government, most likely it would make the NPP establishment in Indonesia go faster because America is a trend centre in the world.

Besides Korea, which other country does BAPETEN corporate with?

In terms of cooperation, BAPETEN works most with Japan, Korea, and America.

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Appendix B

Facts about the country:

1. Introduction

Indonesia is located in Southeastern Asia, an archipelago of 17,508 islands (6,000 inhabited) between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean with total area of 1,904,569 sq km. Located in the equator makes the climate hot, humid and more moderate in highlands. Indonesia is rich in petroleum, tin, natural gas, nickel, timber, bauxite, copper, fertile soils, coal, gold, silver, and other natural resources. The common natural hazards happen in Indonesia are floods which happens almost every year, several droughts, tsunamis, and due to its location in ring of fire, earthquakes and volcanoes are occasionally happen.

With population of 227,345,000 people (2008), Indonesia is the 4th most populous nation in the world. 18% (38,965,440) of the population live in West Java Province and almost nine million live in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia.105 The population growth rate is 1.3% in 2008106. The biggest ethnic groups is Javanese, 40.6%, followed by Sundanese 15%, Madurese 3.3%, Minangkabau 2.7%, Betawi 2.4%, Bugis 2.4%, Banten 2%, Banjar 1.7%, other or unspecified 29.9% (2000 census).107

In 2009 there are 32,530.0 thousand people below poverty line or 14% from total population of Indonesia, which decrease from 2008 with 34,963.3 thousand. The region with the most poverty is in Jawa Timur with around 6

105 Statistics Indonesia: http://www.datastatistik-indonesia.com

106 ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2008

107 CIA, The World Factbook-Indonesia: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/id.html

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million people. However, the largest poverty population percentage is Papua with 37.53% of people are living below poverty line.108

2. Governance

2.1.Administrative Divisions

Indonesia comprises 33 provinces with five of them have special status. Each province divided into municipalities and residence. In total, there are 91 municipalities in Indonesia. The special provinces are Aceh, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Papua and Papua Barat. These provinces have higher special legislative rights and higher autonomy level than other provinces.

Table B.1. lists the provinces and their capital cities as well as number of municipalities, their status, location and the area size.

Name Capital Number of Municipalities

Status Location (Island)

Area (km3)

Aceh Banda Aceh 4 Special region

Sumatera 56,500.51

Sumatera Utara

Medan 7 Sumatera 72,427.81

Sumatera Barat

Padang 7 Sumatera 42,224.65

Riau Pekanbaru 2 Sumatera 87,844.23Jambi Jambi 1 Sumatera 45,348.49Sumatera Selatan

Palembang 4 Sumatera 60,302.54

Bengkulu Bengkulu 1 Sumatera 19,795.15Lampung Bandar

Lampung2 Sumatera 37,735.15

Kepulauan Pangkal 1 Sumatera 16,424.14

108 Statistics Indonesia, http://www.bps.go.id

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Bangka Belitung

Pinang

Kepulauan Riau

Tanjung Pinang

2 Sumatera 8,084.01

Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta

Jakarta 5 National capital

Java 740.29

Jawa Barat Bandung 9 Java 36,925.05Jawa Tengah Semarang 6 Java 32,799.71Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta

Yogyakarta 1 Special region

Java 3,133.15

Jawa Timur Surabaya 9 Java 46,689.64Banten Serang 4 Java 9,018.64Bali Denpasar 1 Nusa

Tenggara5,449.37

Nusa Tenggara Barat

Mataram 2 Nusa Tenggara

19,708.79

Nusa Tenggara Timur

Kupang 1 Nusa Tenggara

46,137.87

Kalimantan Barat

Pontianak 2 Kalimantan

120,114.32

Kalimantan Tengah

Palangkaraya

1 Kalimantan

153,564.50

Kalimantan Selatan

Banjarmasin

2 Kalimantan

37,530.52

Kalimantan Timur

Samarinda 4 Kalimantan

194,849.08

Sulawesi Utara

Manado 3 Sulawesi 13,930.73

Sulawesi Tengah

Palu 1 Sulawesi 68,089.83

Sulawesi Selatan

Makassar 3 Sulawesi 46,116.45

Sulawesi Tenggara

Kendari 2 Sulawesi 36,757.45

Gorontalo Gorontalo 1 Sulawesi 12,165.44Sulawesi Barat

Mamuju 0 Sulawesi 16,787.19

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Maluku Ambon 1 Maluku 47,350.42Maluku Utara

Ternate 2 Maluku 39,959.99

Papua Barat Manokwari 1 Special region

Papua 114,566.40

Papua Jayapura 1 Special region

Papua 309,934.40

Table B.1.. Lists of province in Indonesia109

2.2. International Organization Participation

Indonesia is actively participating in international communities. Indonesia joined the United Nations as the 60th member on September 28th 1950 only five years after its independence. Since then, Indonesia had sent no less than 23 peacekeeping missions through Garuda Contingent, three times as nonpermanent members of Security Council (1973-1974, 1995-1996, and 2007-2008), head of UN Human Rights Commission and head of UN University. Indonesia is the only country that ever withdrawn from UN which occurred during Indonesia-Malaysia confrontation in January 20th 1965. However after the new regime, Indonesia resumed its participation in UN and took its seat in the Assembly on September 28th 1966.

In 1955, an Asian-African Conference was held in Bandung, Indonesia to promote Asian-African economic and culture cooperation which led to the establishment of Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) in which President Soekarno was one of the founder. The tenth NAM Summit was held in Jakarta, on September 1-6 1992 while President Soekarno was serving as the Secretary General of NAM from 1992 to 1995.

109 http://www.depdagri.go.id/pages/profil-daerah/provinsi

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Indonesia is also one of the founder of Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) back in August 1967 with Jakarta is the Seat of Secretariat of ASEAN, one of the founder of Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in September 1969, and one of the founder of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in 1989 (in which the 6th APEC Summit was held in Bogor, Indonesia on November 15th 1994).

In economic cooperation, Indonesia is member of 15 leading economies of the world (G15) and also member of the Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Banks Governors (G20) where Indonesia is planned to hold the G20 Summit in 2013. Moreover, Indonesia has been the member of World Trade Organization (WTO) since its commencement in 1995.

Indonesia was member of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 1962 but withdrew in 2008 after it became a net importer of oil.

3. Economy

Indonesia, a vast polyglot nation, has made significant economic advances under the administration of President YUDHOYONO but faces challenges stemming from the global financial crisis and world economic downturn. Indonesia's debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years has declined steadily because of increasingly robust GDP growth and sound fiscal stewardship. The government has introduced significant reforms in the financial sector, including in the areas of tax and customs, the use of Treasury bills, and capital market supervision. Indonesia's investment law, passed in March 2007, seeks to address some of the concerns of foreign and domestic investors. Indonesia still struggles with poverty and unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, corruption, a complex regulatory environment, and unequal resource distribution among regions. The non-bank financial sector, including pension funds and insurance, remains weak. Despite efforts to broaden and deepen capital markets, they remain underdeveloped. Economic difficulties in early 2008 centered on high global food and oil prices and their impact on Indonesia's poor and on the budget. The onset of the global financial crisis dampened inflationary pressures, but

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increased risk aversion for emerging market assets resulted in large losses in the stock market, significant depreciation of the rupiah, and a difficult environment for bond issuance. As global demand has slowed and prices for Indonesia's commodity exports have fallen, Indonesia faces the prospect of growth significantly below the 6-plus percent recorded in 2007 and 2008.110

During 2005-2008, Indonesia's economic growth was increased by 5.7 percent (2005), 5.5 percent (2006), 6.3 percent (2007) and 6.1 percent (2008). Meanwhile, in the first semester in 2009 compare to second semester in 2008, grew by 1.0 percent and if it compared to first semester in 2008 grew by 4.2 percent.111

According to the 2009 national economic growth rate, the development of Indonesia’s GDP growth per capita decreased from 2008. In 2008 the GDP percapita growth increased but in 2009 it dercreased eventhough it’s still positive. In Value, the GDP per Capita increases from year to year to USD 2,590 in 2009. This value compare to the world is relatively low because Indonesia has a big population and the income rate is not even.

110 CIA, The World Factbook-Indonesia: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/id.html

111 Indonesia Strategic Data – BPS (Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics)

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Table B.2. Indonesia National GDP112

Table B.3. GDP at Current Market Prices and Constant 2000 Market Prices by Industrial Origin 2005-2009: 1st Semester (in trillion rupiahs)113

According to the Indonesia Bureau of Statistic, the most income in Indonesia is on Manufacturing Industry followed by trade, hotel and restaurant and agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishery.

3.1.Labor Force

In line with the growth of population, the labor force in Indonesia has steady growth in the last five years. In 2004, the working age population was 153.92 million and slowly increases with around 1% rate to reach 169.33 million in last semester of 2009. Among those, only 104.87 million people are working with job opportunity 92.13%.114

3.2.Unemployment rate

112 2009 Economic Growth Rate - BPS (Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics)

113 Indonesia Strategic Data – BPS (Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics)

114 http://www.nakertrans.go.id/pusdatin.html,1,316,pnaker

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In five years the number of unemployment was decreasing from 10.25 million in 2004 to 8.96 million by August 2009, among which 1.1 million of them are new unemployment from fresh graduates who have not job yet. The government is targeting to have employment up to 30% from the amount by the next year. The government handles the unemployment by initiating labor-intensive projects, entrepreneurship training as well as make use of job training office.

3.3.Exports

Indonesia’s export commodities of oil and gas reached USD 7,175.1 million by mid-2009 which accounts to around 14% of total export of Indonesia. The top export commodities of non oil and gas are (from the largest value): mineral fuels, animal and vegetable oils/fats, electrical machinery and equipments, ores, slag and ash, machinery and mechanical appliances, rubber and article thereof, non-knitted apparel and clothing, paper and paperboard, knitted apparel and clothing, and wood and articles of woods. Total amount of these 10 commodities reached USD 42,846.9 million during the first semester of 2009.

By June 2009 the major export partner of Indonesia is Japan with USD 5,044.2 million followed by United States and Singapore with amount of USD 4,830.3 million and USD 3,958.9 million, respectively.115

3.4. Imports

Indonesia’s main import commodities of non oil and gas are (from the largest value) machinery and mechanical appliances and parts, electrical machinery and equipments, organic chemicals, iron and steel, aircraft and its components, articles of iron and steel, plastics and articles thereof, vehicles other than

115 Indonesian Statistics, http://www.bps.go.id

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railway/tramway, and parts and accessories thereof, cotton, residues and waste from the food industries. Total amount of those import commodities are USD 3,998.8 million by June 2009. On the other hand, the amount of import of oil and gas is USD 6,511.9 million by June 2009.

From the total import of non oil and gas, the largest came from China with amount of USD 5,898.8 million followed by Japan with USD 4,328.8 million. The remaining top 10 non oil and gas importers are Singapore, US, Thailand, South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, Taiwan, France, and England.116

116 Indonesian Statistics, http://www.bps.go.id

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Thailand

With a well-developed infrastructure, a free-enterprise economy, and generally pro-investment policies, Thailand was one of East Asia's best performers from 2002-04, averaging more than 6% annual real GDP growth. However, overall economic growth has fallen sharply - averaging 4.9% from 2005 to 2007 - as persistent political crisis stalled infrastructure mega-projects, eroded investor and consumer confidence, and damaged the country's international image. The growth rate fell to 2.6% in 2008. Exports were the key economic driver as foreign investment and consumer demand stalled. Export growth from January 2005 to November 2008 averaged 17.5% annually. Business uncertainty escalated, however, following the September 2006 coup when the military-installed government imposed capital controls and considered far-reaching changes to foreign investment rules and other business legislation. Although controversial capital controls have since been lifted and business rules largely remain unchanged, investor sentiment has not recovered. Moreover, the 2008 global financial crisis further darkened Thailand's economic horizon. Continued political uncertainty will hamper resumption of infrastructure mega-projects.

1.1.1. GDP.

$547.4 billion (2008 est.)country comparison to the world: 25 $533.5 billion (2007 est.)$508.6 billion (2006 est.)note: data are in 2008 US dollars

1.1.2. Labor Force.

37.78 million (2008 est.)Country comparison to the world: 16

1.1.3. Unemployment rate.

1.4% (2008 est.)Country comparison to the world: 8 1.4% (2007 est.)

1.1.4. Population below poverty line.

10% (2004 est.)

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1.1.5. Investment.

27.3% of GDP (2008 est.)Country comparison to the world: 35

1.1.6. Exports: commodities, partners.

textiles and footwear, fishery products, rice, rubber, jewelry, automobiles, computers and electrical appliances ; US 11.4%, Japan 11.4%, China 9.2%, Singapore 5.7%, Hong Kong 5.6%, Malaysia 5.6%, Australia 4.3% (2008)

1.1.7. Imports: commodities, partners.

capital goods, intermediate goods and raw materials, consumer goods, fuels ; Japan 18.8%, China 11.2%, US 6.4%, UAE 6%, Malaysia 5.5%, Saudi Arabia 4.1%, Singapore 4% (2008)

2. Korea-Country relation:

2.1 Trade: Korean investment, economic

Thailand has concluded free trade talks with South Korea under the Asean-Korea free trade agreement (AKFTA) after almost a year of negotiations.Under the deal, Thailand will be given more flexibility in cutting and/or waiving its tariffs compared to other Asean nations, which wrapped up the AKFTA talks earlier, according to Noppadon Sarawasi, deputy director-general of the Trade Negotiations Department.South Korea is Thailand’s eighth-largest trade partner, with bilateral trade value of nearly US$7 billion.Thailand and South Korea have had diplomatic ties for 50 years and trade has been rising at a rapid pace. Two-way trade between Thailand and South Korea was worth $8.2 billion in 2007 compared with $7.8 billion in 2006. Thailand’s exports to Korea were worth $2.9 billion last year against imports worth $5.3 billion. Most of Thailand’s exports to Korea were focused on

• fishery products• rubber products• home appliances• electronic parts and components• gems and jewellery

Imports were dominated by • auto parts• agricultural fertilizer

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• electronic devices and steel

The Ambassador also mentioned that the one area that has been thriving is tourism, as both Thais and their Korean counterparts are fond of each others’ countries. More than one million Koreans visit Thailand each year and of these 50% of newlywed Koreans travel to Thailand for honeymoons, mostly to Phuket, Samui or other venues. Thais are also fascinated about Korean pop culture and the younger generation and that encourages them to visit the country.http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=10861

2.2 Politics: diplomacy

It was only Oct. 1, 1958 when Thailand and Korea first established diplomatic ties. Nevertheless, before that, the two witnessed building mutual interest for exchange.

As early as the late 14th century, there were exchanges of envoys between the Goryeo Kingdom and the Kingdom of Saiam. During the 1950-53 Korea War, Thai troops were one of the earliest foreign dispatches to arrive in Korea, consisting of more than 10,000 young men.

Now, Bangkok is one of the top tourism destinations for Koreans, and Thai's exposure to Korean culture and language becomes more visible in Thailand as do the growing number of Thais working in Korea.During the Korean War, Thailand was the second nation sending troops for supporting South Korea just after United States.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/special/2009/10/176_32197.html

2.3 Perception of Korean culture

Economic development has been the major topic discussed among Thai scholars, while general knowledge of culture, society, history, science and technology, as well as sports, are discussion issues among the general Thai populace. The Korean War has never been forgotten by the Thai people, who support Korean unification.Thais idealize Korean country as Chinese. Korean pop culture, TV shows and celebrities have infiltrated into Thailand and are very popular amongst young and old alike and Many Thais have negative viewpoints of countries closely neighboring them.http://www.ru.ac.th/korea/article1/article17.pdf

2.4 Perception of Korean technology and knowhow with regards to nuclear power.

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Thai perceptions of Korea drastically changed in the early 1980s, when this remote country successfully achieved economic development and reached the status of newly industrialized country. As many Korean goods found their way to Thai markets, a new generation of Thai people expressed their admiration of Koreans as hard-working people who wisely adapted modern technology into production. As a result, they found themselves to eager to learn about Korea.They perceive Korea as good technology and innovative based country and the reasons are like Firstly, Korea has set up good structure, has great technology and the leader of export based. Secondly Korea has many intellectuals in cultural industry. Thirdly, gave financial support to both public and private sectors.They rate Koreans next to Japan in terms of automobile technology and IT products they give importance as Koreans adapting new technology according to stages of product cycle.http://www.cct.go.kr/data/acf2006/aycc/aycc_0504_Montira%20Tada-amnuaychai.pdfhttp://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/233823/PWThailandandIts%20Knowledge%20EconomyPaper06.pdfhttp://www.cas.uio.no/research/0708innovation/CASworkshop_Patarapong.pdf

2.5 Details of nuclear collaboration: non proliferation, energy, training, research.

Human Resources Development in nuclear filed is depending on the demand on theusage of nuclear applications. Among all nuclear applications, medical and industrial utilization of nuclear energy is the most successful and well known applications in the country. Since nuclear power is not planned for Thailand in the near future, human resources in nuclear power development is limited. Human resource of medical professional in nuclear field is recognized to be necessary for the safety in medical exposure control. While human resources in radiation safety are the key for occupation control in industry and research, human resources in research and development in nuclear applications and reactor utilization are also important for the country development.

• Asia is the only region in the world where electricity generating capacity and specifically nuclear power is growing significantly.

• In East and South Asia there are over 111 nuclear power reactors in operation, 21 under construction and plans to build about a further 150.

• Interest by Thailand in nuclear power was revived by a forecast growth in electricity demand of 7 per cent per year for the next twenty years. About

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70% of electricity is from natural gas. Capacity requirement in 2016 is forecast at 48 GWe.

• In June 2007 the Energy Minister announced that it would proceed with plans to build a 4000 MWe nuclear power plant, and has budgeted funds to 2011 for preparatory work. Construction will commence in 2015, to operate from 2020.

• Thailand has had an operating research reactor since 1977 and a larger one is under construction.

Peak demand is about 20 GWe and in 2006 some 139 billion kWh gross was generated. About 68% was from natural gas, 18% from coal. Installed capacity is about 28 GWe, half of it gas-fired. Forecast peak demand in 2021 is almost 50 GWe. Thailand has the potential to be a regional electricity hub for ASEAN countries.Tentative plans to embark on a nuclear power program have been revived by a forecast growth in electricity demand of 7 per cent per year for the next twenty years. Capacity requirement in 2016 is forecast at 48 GWe. As gas prices rise, the Atomic Energy Commission and its Office of Atoms for Peace (OAP) however are assessing the feasibility of nuclear power, and any initial plants would probably be built by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Independent power producers have also expressed interest. The Ministry of Science & Technology is responsible for the issue.As gas prices rose, Thailand's National Energy Policy Council commissioned a feasibility study for a nuclear power plant in the country. Among the options in the draft power development plan for 2007-2021 was the construction of 5000 MWe of nuclear generating capacity, starting up in 2020-21.In June 2007 the Energy Minister announced that EGAT will proceed with plans to build a 4000 MWe nuclear power plant, and budgeted some US$ 53 million between 2008 and 2011 on preparatory work, half of it coming from oil revenues. Construction is to commence in 2014. The capital cost is expected to be US$ 6 billion and electricity cost about USD 6 cents/kWh, slightly less than from coal. The government plans to establish safety and regulatory infrastructure by 2014 and commissioned a formal 3-year feasibility study early in 2008. Then in October 2008 the engineering firm Burns & Roe was commissioned to undertake a 20-month study to recommend siting, technology and reactor size for the first plant. The project will then go out to tender with a view to starting construction in 2014. The government plans to have 2000 MWe nuclear on line in 2021.Thailand has had an operating research reactor since 1977 and a larger one is under construction.

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Thailand's safeguards agreement with the IAEA under the NPT entered force in 1974 and it has signed but not ratified the Additional Protocol.http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/default.aspx?id=326&terms=thailandhttp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf47.html

2.6 Attitudes towards Korean industry or government as a partner for nuclear industry.

------------------------------------------- Information from Sinsuppa-----------------------

3. Energy Resources and Usage => literature research and interview

3.1.Current and future energy resources and usage: oil, natural gas, water, wind, etc.

Production, consumption => fees, environmental effect, etc.

2007 Thailand’s total commercial primary energy consumption was 80,019 thousand tons of crude oil equivalence (ktoe) while peak generation of the electric power system was recorded at 22,586 MW. During the 1970’s approximately 90% of Thailand’s commercial primary energy consumption (including non-energy use) was imported, mostly petroleum products. The discovery of natural gas in the Gulf of the Thailand and lignite in the Northern part of the country reduced Thailand’s import dependence to about 60%.

The country’s dependence on imported energy has remained at 55-62% since the mid 1980’s while about 70% of electricity is generated from natural gas since 2001. Although there has been continuous discovery of oil and gas in Thailand, the domestic demand for commercial primary energy has been growing at an annual compound growth rate of 7.6% during the period 1985-2007 resulting in import dependence remaining at 60%. This together with quadrupling of the world oil price during the past

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5 years have pushed Thailand’s net energy import to US$19.5 billion in 2007 equivalent to 7.9% of GDP. Despite the rapidly growing energy demand Thailand’s per capita commercial energy consumption is still very low compared with industrialized countries at 1.27 toe. As a result her current per capita emission of greenhouse gases is estimated to be about 5.5 tons of carbon dioxide.

The local oil production will be increased from 200,000 barrels per day to 250,000 barrels per day, or an increase from 28% to 35% within four years. The search for additional natural gas from local and foreign resources is needed to ensure a minimum of 30-year reserve, by accelerating negotiation on the development of Thailand-Cambodia overlapping area to come to a conclusion. For the electricity supply, to reduce fuel supply risks, there must be fuel diversification to include, among others, natural gas, clean coal and hydropower. Moreover, greater emphasis will be placed on private power producers including IPP/SPP/VSPP, with a special focus on Small Power Producers (SPP) and Very Small Power Producers (VSPP) which produce electricity using renewable energy. In addition, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand is instructed to maintain no less than 50% of the total installed generating capacity of the country and to maintain a reserve margin at an appropriate level according to the international standard, i.e. about 15%.

Being heavily dependent on imported oil but endowed with a large agriculture sector, it is not surprising that Thailand is one of the first countries in Asia to have a policy to encourage biofuels, cogeneration, distributed generation, and the generation of power from renewable energy. Although Thailand has a large amount of agriculture raw materials for the production of ethanol and biodiesel for the last few decades, it is the oil price rise beginning in 2004 together with the government policy that led to a dramatic increase in the consumption and production of biofuels in recent years. Cogeneration and the production of power from renewable energy was implemented under the Small Power Producer Program (SPP), introduced in 1992, and became a very effective policy instrument in promoting investment in renewable energy and cogeneration. The economic crisis in 1997 led to an excess capacity in the power system, and the purchase of power from new cogeneration facilities under long term contract was temporarily suspended. Unclear policy by the government led to a substantial slow down in the program

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in subsequent years, and it was not until 2006 after the coup d’etat in September 2006 that the government of General Surayud Chulanond introduced a number of sweeping changes to the program and allowed investment in cogeneration projects to resume for the first time since 1997. Responses by the business community and investors have been extremely positive, partly helped by the soaring oil prices. By the end of 2007, a very large number of applications have been received from small cogeneration facilities and renewable energy projects while a number of projects have been commissioned

Generation of 81.7 MW of electricity from renewable energy projects by EGAT, the stateowned enterprise, has been incorporated into Thailand’s Power Development Plan.

In addition, more money will be allocated from the government’s Energy Conservation Promotion Fund to be used as soft-loans for investors who are interested to invest in renewable energy projects, such as the biogas generation from wastewater in tapioca starch factories to generate electricity. The target is to increase the use of renewable energy for power generation from 2,061 MW at present to 3,246 MW in 2011, or an increase of almost 1,200 MW.

We have introduced gasohol to the market and it is well accepted by consumers. Last year, the use of gasohol was at 3.5 million litres/day. This year, we have set a target to increase the use of ethanol to 1 million litres/day, which can produce gasohol at 10 million litres/day to replace about 50% of gasoline consumption. The target is to increase the use of ethanol to 3 million litres/day by 2011.

Government organization EGAT recognizes the rights of the people and community to information and petition as stipulated in the 2007 Constitution. Public consultation and access to EGAT’s project information have been implemented strictly in accordance with the Rule of the Office of the Prime Minister on Public Consultation B.E. 2548 (2005) and the Guidelines of Public Participation issued by the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning.

The Constitution’s Section 67 clause 2, in particular, clearly stipulates that any project or activity which may seriously affect the quality of the environment, natural resources and biological diversity shall not be permitted, unless its impacts on the quality of the environment and on

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health of the people in the communities have been studied and evaluated and consultation with the public and interested parties have been organized, and opinions of an independent organization, consisting of representatives from private environmental and health organizations and from higher education institutions providing studies in the field of environment, natural resources or health, have been obtained prior to the operation of such project or activity.

Accordingly, EGAT has emphasized public participation in all stages of project development and throughout the operating life of its power plants. In 2008, public consultation process was implemented from an early stage of the development of Wang Noi combined cycle block 4 project and Bang Pakong combined cycle block 6 project during the course of environmental impact assessment. Public opinions and community concerns were incorporated into the development of environmental impact mitigation and monitoring program to ensure its effective implementation when the projects come into construction and operation.

Southeast Asia is also developing a regional power grid. A large share of this regional power system is centered on Thailand and western Malaysia, where regional power consumption is concentrated. Thailand now has existing power purchase contracts with Laos, which send hydroelectric power from Laos to Thailand’s grid. Agreements have also been signed to deliver further hydroelectricity and to send lignite-fueled power from Laos to Thailand. Arrangements are also in varying degrees of completion to sell power to Thailand from Burma (Myanmar), China’s Yunnan Province, Cambodia, and Malaysia. Such power trade in the cases of Burma (Myanmar) and Malaysia competes with possible pipeline provision of natural gas for power stations located in Thailand. Also competing with such power transfers might be natural gas sales from Indonesian fields, notably Natuna, to Thailand.

Excel sheets was used later on

http://www.eppo.go.th/inter/asean/AMEM25/AMEM25-Th-position-rev.pdf

http://www.eppo.go.th/doc/Piya-RE-in-Thailand.pdf

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http://www.eppo.go.th/info/1summary_stat.htm

http://www.eppo.go.th/inter/apec/int-APEC-security.pdf

http://pr.egat.co.th/AnnualReport/annual2008/annual08_eng/annual2008en_p86.pdf

http://pr.egat.co.th/AnnualReport/annual2008/annual08_eng/annual2008en_p74.pdf

3.2.Nuclear usage in the country

3.2.1. Historical, cultural and political elements that influence the pursuit of nuclear power

Thailand is a developing country with increasing population, improving social living standard and growing economic, although there are still impacts from the present global economic recession. These situations cause the national power demand increase every year. According to the power demand forecast during 2008 -2021, the annual power demand growth will be approximate 4.9% or 1,589 MW so that the power demand of the next 13 years , in 2021, will increase twice that in 2008. Therefore, EGAT is necessary to provide sufficient power supply in which the nuclear power plant is an appropriate alternative in responding the future demand of the country.The nuclear power plant uses uranium as fuel therefore it will not emit the polluted green house gases such as NOx, SO2 and CO2, which have impacts

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to environment, like the power generation from fossil fuel. At present all over the world is facing the global warming problem and Thailand also concerns this problem. The nuclear power plant is then an alternative of power generation in Thailand to help the global warming solution. As the cooperation committee for nuclear Power infrastructure establishment informend that the nuclear power project can be proceeded aas palnned but the cappcity was reduced to 1000MW per year that is 1000MW in 2020 and another e1000MW in 2021.Government declares the necessity for building nuclear energy facilities from 1966 and the steps taken as follows:

1966: Thailand's first nuclear project was proposed by the state's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT).1974: The government approved the proposed project to be situated in Bhai Bay, Chonburi province, East Thailand, with 350- to 500-MW capacity. However the project was shelved after fluctuations in the world oil market led to a drop in costs for natural gas at that time.1977: EGAT reiterated its proposal, stating its increased readiness to build nuclear energy plants. Again, although EGAT got government approval, prevailing global and Thai public opposition to nuclear energy led to its cancellation.Politicians and the government are intent on promoting nuclear energy without heeding public concerns. In the face of public concerns about nuclear energy, the government established a subcommittee to study its economic feasibility. The subcommittee members are from the National Energy Policy Office (NEPO), Office of Atomic Energy for Peace (OAEP), National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), and the Elecrticity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). The study stated that Thailand should have nuclear energy capability by 2001 and that it be incorporated into the EGAT's energy production plan of 1992. Total planned capacity was 1000MW with the proposed sites near the sea in southern Thailand. The radioactive waste would be kept for five to six years before disposal, but no details were given about how such disposal would take place.Another important government agency promoting nuclear energy is the Office for Atomic Energy for Peace (OAEP).The OAEP has been developing nuclear technology for a long time. In a recent press release, the OAEP declared the opening of a uranium processing facility to produce 1,000 kg of processed uranium per year. Located at the Center for Techno Thani in Pathum Thani province, the facility was approved in 1989. The enriched uranium can be used as fuel in the heavy water (CANDU type) reactor.

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In 1993, the OAEP established the Nuclear Center in Ongkarak in Nakhon Nayok province, near Bangkok. Covering roughly 126 acres, the project's budget was worth 4,500 million baht for a research reactor of 5 to 10 MW. The new reactor project at Ongkarak, planned sinced the previous project established 10 years ago, is less than 14 kilometers from Bangkok's Don Muang International Airport.Fearing public opposition, the Thai government moved silently on its nuclear plans. Up to the present, the government has not held any public forums to listen to public opinion or to reconsider its nuclear energy plans. Although the government has held many meetings, the agenda was solely to provide the views held by the government on nuclear energy. At the same time, politicians and other government officials involved with the nuclear energy plans regularly visit nuclear facilities abroad, meet with nuclear energy companies and consultants, and return to Thailand voicing support for nuclear energy.In 1993 a World Bank study on Thailand estimated that nuclear was not competitive compared to gas, lignite, coal or fuel-oil fired generation, even after the investment and operating costs of pollution mitigating technology such as flue-gas desulphurization units onlignite and coal-fired power plants were considered6. As a result of this report, nuclear power was taken out of the Thai Government’s 1994 energy plan.On June 1, 1993, the cabinet resolution set up a research project on safety and the environmental impacts, improved the laws and public relations strategies of the Ministry for Science, Technology and the Environment (MOSTE), and ordered the OAEP to set up a subcommittee on safety in nuclear power stations.In 1994, the Chuan Leekpai government passed a resolution stating that MOSTE would set up an organization to supervise the safety of nuclear facilities, including regulatory measures. On December 12, 1994, a cabinet resolution established, and put MOSTE in charge of, the Committee to Study the Feasibility of Nuclear Energy for a six-year period with a budget of 750 million baht (US$30 million), and 50 million baht (US$2 million) for public relations.In 1995, Yingphan Manasikarn, the minister for science, technology and environment, began promoting nuclear energy on behalf of the EGAT, despite opposition from development organizations. Government officials have pushed for a nuclear energy policy through the National Energy Policy Office (NEPO) and the building of nuclear plants on the Gulf of Thailand.In 1996, the government of Banharn Silpaarcha set up a committee to study the feasibility of nuclear power consisting of four subcommittees on safety issues, on economics, on public relations, and on environmental impact. The

117

government expects to undertake the study on four reactors, each with a 1000-MW capacity. On July 23, 1996, the cabinet allocated a budget to support feasibility studies by a 21-member committee under the chair of the minister of MOSTE for the building of nuclear power plants. The permanent minister in the Office of the Prime Minister, Rakkiard Sookthana, declared the government policy for the EGAT to allocate its budget for 1997 to study the building of nuclear plants.

On December 16, 1996, the new government of Chavalit Yongchaiyudh announced its energy policy, and the deputy to the prime minister, Samak Sundaravej, overseeing MOSTE, said that it was time to build nuclear power plants as soon as possible to meet the country's energy demand in 10 years.In 1997, at a meeting on "How can we live in the nuclear age?", the manager of the EGAT's mechanical engineering department, Vivat Preuksawan, declared that the EGAT had found four sites suitable for building a nuclear power plant: Nakhon Sri Thammarat province, Prachuab Khiri Khan province, and two locations in Chumporn province. But the site has not been selected yet. In early January 1997, the Prime Minister of Canada, along with a team of business representatives, visited Thailand and mentioned the potential selling of Canadian nuclear technology to Thailand.Ministerial Regulation on Licensing Requirements and Procedures B.E. 2546 (2003) being in force on 1 April 2003:• Repealing the Ministerial Regulation No.2, 4 and 6 with addressing

updated personal safety criteria (adopted ICRP 60) and number of specific codes of conduct, measures and procedures for licensees to comply the authority to regulate. Ministerial Regulation on Radioactive Waste Management B.E. 2546 (2003) being in force on 1 April 2003:

• A new regulation addressing safety limits for radioactive wastes with number of specific codes of conduct, measures and procedures for licensees to comply and the authority to regulate.

• New Ministerial Regulation relating to the licensing for radiation sources and nuclear materials and the licensing for nuclear installation have to be submitted through the Ministry of Sciences and Technology to the cabinet for final approval.

http://www.eppo.go.th/inter/asean/AMEM25/AMEM25-Th-position-rev.pdf

http://www.eppo.go.th/doc/Piya-RE-in-Thailand.pdf

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http://www.eppo.go.th/info/1summary_stat.htm

http://www.eppo.go.th/inter/apec/int-APEC-security.pdf

http://pr.egat.co.th/AnnualReport/annual2008/annual08_eng/annual2008en_p86.pdf

http://pr.egat.co.th/AnnualReport/annual2008/annual08_eng/annual2008en_p74.pdf

http://archive.greenpeace.org/nuclear/devco.pdf 3.2.2. Nuclear Regulation making: who gets involved and their

responsibility.

The Ministry of Energy is charged with energy procurement, development and management, including other tasks stipulated in relevant legislation as authority and duties of the Ministry or its departments.The departments under the Ministry of Energy and their responsibilities are as follows:

1. Office of the MinisterResponsible for and support the Minister of Energy’s political missions in coordination with the cabinet, the Parliament and the general public; and coordinate the responses to queries, clarification on motions, bills and other political-related issues.

2. Office of the Permanent SecretaryEstablish strategies and translate policies of the Ministry into action plans, allocate the resources and manage the manpower to achieve the targets and missions of the Ministry, and coordinate international energy cooperation.

3. Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE)Promote efficient use of energy, monitor energy conservation activities and explore alternative energy sources, as well as disseminate energy-related technologies.

4. Department of Energy Business (DOEB)Regulate the energy quality and safety standards, including impacts on

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the environment and security, and improve the standards to protect consumers’ benefit.

5. Department of Mineral Fuels (DMF)Promote and accelerate energy procurement via facilitating energy resource exploration and development both in Thailand and abroad.

6. Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO)Recommend national energy policies and planning, establish energy measures and preventive and solution measures against oil shortage to ensure adequate and efficient energy supply in line with the economic conditions of the country.

The State Enterprise under the Ministry of Energy is :1. Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)

Two Autonomous Public Companies under the Ministry of Energy are :1. PTT Public Company Limited (PTT)2. Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (BCP)

The Public Organization is :1. The Energy Fund Administration Institute (Public Organization),

(EFAI)The Independent Organization is :

1. The Energy Regulatory Commission, (ERC)http://www.eppo.go.th/doc/NIO-MinistryOfEnergy-info.html http://www.nppdo.go.th/sites/all/files/16PBNC_Plenary_2-3_%288%29.pdf

3.2.3. Present nuclear usage in the country especially nuclear power plant.

Only one research reactor is in use. Most of radioactive materials are widely used in medical care, industry, agriculture and R&D, etc.http://cnic.jp/english/newsletter/nit125/nit125articles/nnaf08.html

3.2.4. The pros and cons of nuclear usage in the country => public opinion (professional, general)

4. Future nuclear usage in the country => literature research and interview

4.1. Current nuclear power plant project.

As for the nuclear power infrastructure establishment preparation scheme, further comprehensive study is necessary and detailed information must be

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provided to the public. Besides, public acceptance will have to be obtained before any decision-making is made in the future.

http://wna.snetglobalindexes.com/information_sources.php 4.2. Future development of nuclear power plant.

In Thailand’s Power Development Plan 2007-2021 (PDP2007), nuclear power plants are envisaged, with a total generating capacity of 4,000 MW (2,000 MW in 2020 and another 2,000 MW in 2021).The road map for nuclear power generation is divided into 2 phases:

1st Phase (2007-2014) -- a preparatory stage (7 years), involving A feasibility study for the development of a nuclear power generation

project Human resources development; The selection of an appropriate technology and possible plant sites;

Establishment of the standards of nuclear power plants and related laws; and Public campaigns.

2nd Phase (2015-2020) – is for the construction of a nuclear power plant (6 years).Supply to the grid can begin from the year 2020 onwards.The Nuclear Power Infrastructure Preparation Committee (NPIPC) was appointed to develop and recommend plans, measures and guidelines on the implementation of the mentioned preparatory work for the establishment of a nuclear power plant.

In June 2007: 6 Sub-committees have been appointed to assist with the various work aspects of the Committee, especially the creation of correct understanding and acceptance of the general public of nuclear power deployment for electricity generation.

According to the energy minister of Thailand, the state owned Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand will build its first two nuclear power plants by 2021. This decision was criticized by Greenpeace, which suggested to focus on alternative power supplies from hydropower and smaller biofuel plants before risking nuclear. 1 research reactor, + 1 being built.Interest by Thailand in nuclear power was revived by a forecast growth in electricity demand of 7 per cent per year for the next twenty years. About 70%

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of electricity is from natural gas. Capacity requirement in 2016 is forecast at 48 GWe.In June 2007 the Energy Minister announced that it would proceed with plans to build a 4000 MWe nuclear power plant, and has budgeted funds to 2011 for preparatory work. Construction will commence in 2015, to operate from 2020.Thailand has had an operating research reactor since 1977 and a larger one is under construction.

http://www.eppo.go.th/inter/asean/AMEM25/AMEM25-Th-position-rev.pdf

5. Conclusions and suggestions

Thailand has clearly devised energy development plans and strategies based on the concept of sustainable development, aiming at Energy security with balance between demand & supply and also Sustained economic growth of the country by reducing energy imports & promoting indigenous energy resources and Well-being of the people by the use of clean fuel.Efforts have been made to diversify away from the use of oil by increasing the use of indigenous energy resources together with energy efficiency improvement so as to enhance the national energy security and to reduce dependency on energy import as well as environmental impact.Well-targeted policies have been set to promote greater use of alternative & renewable energy, particularly in the transport and power generation sectors.International energy cooperation will be supported as experience sharing and cooperation at both regional and inter-regional levels will contribute to greater and more efficient development of energy.

The Philippines

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The energy picture for the Philippines

The Philippines is a world leader in renewable energy sources. It has considerable hydroelectric generation facilities, and has created the world’s first commercial scale geothermal energy installation. Around a quarter of the Philippine energy is generated from underground heat sources.117

The Philippines also has other natural resources. It has an estimated natural gas reserve of 2.5 to 3.5 TCF from offshore northern Palawan. It has oil reserves at the Galoc oil field, which has initial production of 22,000 barrels of crude oil per day. It also has coal, but the production accounts less than 25% of the country’s coal demand, and the coal produced in the Philippine is in a poor quality, not suitable for power generation, therefore, the Philippines needs to import high quality coal or adopt technology to maximize the use of coal.

Though the Philippines has a lot of energy resources, comparing to the consumption, the total production of Philippines’ energy is not enough for the consumption.

Chart1 Total Primary Energy Production (Quadrillion Btu)

Source: EIA, International Energy Annual

117 http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/philippines/

123

In the year of 2006, the Philippines produced 56.7 billion kWh gross of electricity in 2006, 27% came from coal, 29% from gas, 8% from oil, 17.5% from hydro and 18.5% from geothermal.

Chart2 The source of electricity Generation in 2006

Electricity consumption is increasing steadily118. Though the generation of electricity is enough for consumption now, but with development of Philippines, the generation is not enough. It is predicated that an additional 3 GWe of capacity is required by 2013 to avert shortages.

Chart3 Philippines total electricity production and consumption (billion kilowatt-hours)

118 http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf102.html

124

Source: EIA, International Energy Annual

Philippines Dry Natural Gas Production and Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet)

Source: EIA, International Energy AnnualPhilippines Coal Production and Consumption (Thousand Short Tons))

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Source: EIA, International Energy Annual

Because of the shortage of energy, in 2007 the Philippines Department of Energy (DOE) set up a project to study the development of nuclear energy, in the context of an overall energy plan for the country. Nuclear energy would be considered in order to reduce the country's dependency on imported oil and coal.

Nuclear power in context

Nuclear usage in the country Historical, cultural and political elements that influence the pursuit of nuclear power in the Philippines

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The Philippines always wants to use nuclear energy for electric power generation. Its government has created various instrumentalities for the development of nuclear energy in the country. These include the Philippine Atomic Energy Commission that is now known as the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute and more recently the National Power Steering Committee. The Philippines has even put up its own nuclear power plant located in its province of Bataan. However, because of some technical considerations and political factors including the strong public opinion against using nuclear energy and operating the nuclear power plant, the country was never able to date operate its nuclear power plant or harness the potential of nuclear energy for electricity generation.

Present and future nuclear usage in the country especially nuclear power

plants in the Philippines

There are no operational nuclear power plants in the Philippines. The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant is a nuclear power plant, completed in 1985 but never fueled because of corruption charges.

The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant is a 620 MW nuclear facility located in Napot Point, Morong, Bataan overlooking the South China Sea, and is constructed at a site 18 meters above sea level. It is a pressurized water reactor (PWR) type of plant.

127

It

is built in response to the 1973 oil crisis. At that time, the Philippines decided to build the two-unit Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP). Construction of Bataan, began in 1976 and it was completed in 1984 at a cost of $460 million. However, due to financial issues and safety concerns related to earthquakes, the plant was never loaded with fuel or operated. So in fact, there are no operational nuclear power plants in the Philippines.

The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

Public opinion: The pros and cons of nuclear usage in the Philippines

During the first oil price shock in the early 1970s, the Philippine government decided to build a nuclear plant. The opposition claimed it was a knee-jerk reaction to the oil crisis. There were cheaper sources of energy at that time, like hydropower and geothermal energy. But others insisted the project proved the sincerity of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, who had earlier vowed to make the country an industrial hub in the region. In terms of the people’s perceptions as to the safety of operating the plant, it is interesting to note that a slight majority (52%) viewed the plant as being unsafe. However,

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now more and more people hold the view that the nuclear power currently provides 15 percent of the world’s electricity. Scientists have been working hard to reduce the usual risks associated with nuclear energy.

Prospects for nuclear usage in the Philippines

In order to reduce the dependency on imported oil and coal, the government of the Philippines decided to make full use of nuclear power.

In 2007, the government decided to convert the idle plant to a natural gas power plant.

In April 2007, the Philippine government made the final payment for the plant in the hope of converting it into a natural gas-fired power plant.

At the same year, the Philippines Department of Energy (DOE) carried out a project to study the development of nuclear energy, in the context of an overall energy plan for the country.

In 2008, the government made a new national energy plan. In this plan, 600 MWe was projected on line in 2025, with further 600 MWe increments in 2027, 2030 and 2034 to give 2400 MWe.

In order to achieve this, the IAEA recommend the government to refurbish and operate Bataan-1 as well as a policy framework for nuclear power development in the country.

In December of 2008, the National Power Corporation commissioned Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO, parent company of KHNP) to conduct an 18-month feasibility study on commissioning Bataan. Its preliminary recommendation in December 2009 was that Bataan should be refurbished.

So now the government of the Philippines is trying to establish a working group with the other countries, such as Tailand, and try to train their own nuclear engenderers.

Regulatory Bodies for nuclear power and radioactive materials in the

Philippines

Government agencies concerned with nuclear energy was Philippine Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), which was created through "The Philippine

129

Science Act of 1958." In 1987, it was reorganized as the PNRI119, which is under the department of Science and Technology. Just like PAEC, the PNRI is in-charge of both the promotion of nuclear energy and the regulation of its use. It is the regulatory body for all matters that pertain to nuclear energy in the Philippines with its Nuclear Regulations, Licensing and Safeguards Division (NRLSD) as the regulatory arm. It is mandated to undertake research and development activities in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, to institute regulations on the said uses and to carry out the enforcement of said regulations to protect the health and safety of radiation workers and the general public

Besides the PNRI, there is another institute-the Nuclear Power Steering Committee (NPSC) also involves nuclear power issues. It was created through EO 243 issued by President Ramos on May 1995. It is a multi-agency body headed by the Secretary of the Department of Energy (DOE) with the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Department of Education, Culture and Sports (DECS), Department of Justice (DOJ), National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), Office of the Press Secretary (OPS), National Power Corporation (NPC), Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) and the Office of the President (OP) as members.

Government departments responsible for nuclear policies

119 http://www.pnri.dost.gov.ph/

130

History of nuclear energy, nuclear research and international collaboration in the Philippines

The Philippines has a long history of nuclear research. Early in the year of 1955, it has already signed a bilateral agreement with the United States. In1958,

it established the Philippines Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)，charged with overseeing the peaceful uses of nuclear technology. In 1987, the PAEC was reconstituted as the Philippines Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI).

Under the US Atoms for Peace programme, the Philippines received a small research reactor, which went online in 1963. However, shortly after being restarted in 1988, the PRR-1 reactor pool suffered a serious leak which led to the reactor being shut down permanently. In 1990, IAEA tried to help repair it, but it fells because of financial problems.

The Philippines has collaborated extensively with the IAEA in order to enhance and widen its nuclear expertise. In the mid of 2009, it had participated in 11 active and 99 completed IAEA national technical-cooperation projects, as well as 68 active and 83 completed interregional and regional projects.

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The most significant nuclear undertaking was the construction, between 1976 and 1984, of the Bataan nuclear power plant (BNPP), equipped with a 621MWe Westinghouse light-water reactor and located in the municipality of Morong, at the foot of Mount Natib, a dormant volcano. Due to financial issues and safety concerns related to earthquakes, the plant was never loaded with fuel or operated120.

The relationship between Korea and Philippines

Bilateral trade

Korea is now the 3rd largest source of foreign investments in the Philippines, Korean companies actively operate in the country. Both governments recognize the fruits of the investment partnership between our two countries and how much more successful it can be. As such, the Philippines and Korea signed the ASEAN-Korea Investment Agreement in Jeju on 02 June 2009.

In the same vein, Philippine-Korea bilateral trade is also on an upswing. At present, Korea is the 7th biggest trade partner of the Philippines, with two-way trade reaching $8.1 Billion in 2008 alone. Because of the recent implementation of the Korea-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, an increase in this figure is expected to take place in the next few years.

Details of nuclear collaboration: non proliferation, energy, training, research.

120 http://www.iiss.org/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=32473

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Nuclear Non-proliferation in Regional Cooperation

Organization Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN,ASEAN+3)

Membership Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia

Subject Denuclearization of Korean Peninsula

Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone

Cooperation in Nuclear Energy

Organization Forum for Nuclear Cooperation in Asia (FNCA)

Membership Australia, China, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan

Subject Use of research reactor

Application of radiation etc.

Perceptions of Korean culture in the Philippines

Filipinos like to embracing Korean culture. Kimchi is a popular dish in Philippines. Because of Korean soap operas, the Philippines, like the other Asian countries, has been swept by “Korean wave”. As a result of this, there are many posters and wallet-size fan photos of Korean soap opera stars in the Philippine markets. The Korean people who visited the Philippines always can receive the famed Philippines hospitality. Their hosts ensure that they will be met and taken care of by Korean-speaking guides, and most hotels and many restaurants provide Korean food, alcoholic beverages and Korean entertainment

133

at night. According to official statistics, 370,000 South Koreans visited the Philippines in 2004. Apart from the short-term tourists who usually stay less than a week, Philippine media estimate the number of South Koreans who choose to permanently live in the country at 46,000. Typically Korean migrants are businessmen or traders, students or missionaries121.

Perceptions of Korean technology and know-how with regards to nuclear

power

Korea is one of leading countries whose nuclear technology is advanced and make a big progress during the development. Korea even pipped other nuclear industry leaders to export nuclear power to Saudi Arabia. The reason why South Korea got the contract was world-class safety performance and excellent operational track record of Korea's nuclear power plants, which were designed and operated by Korea's homegrown technology. This successful export of a nuclear power technology to Saudi Arabia, considering its economic value, is enough to obtained approval of the international society. Considering this, to cooperate with South Korea on development of nuclear power plan is great idea for the Philippines, especially both of them belongs to Asia countries.

In the December of 2008, the Philippine government entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the government-owned Korean Electric Power Company (KEPCO) to conduct a feasibility study on the condition of the mothballed BNPP.

Opportunities for Korea

As electricity and energy consumption increases in the Philippines, the needs of nuclear energy generation will be the on the rise. However, the Philippines is still not ready for nuclear power because the government lacked infrastructure. Though the Philippines has a long history of nuclear research, the Philippines does not have a large or advanced nuclear infrastructure. Like the other developing country, the Philippines also lacks an independent nuclear regulatory framework, a deficiency includes a wet laboratory for research and

121 http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20051219rm.html

134

development activities, as well as storage rooms with a total capacity of approximately 520m3.

It is a big opportunity for South Korea to build the nuclear infrastructure in the Philippines, especially now the Philippines government pursues intensive efforts on nuclear energy generation. This kind of investment, which combines technology as well as capital, will make South Korea enter into Philippines nuclear energy market very easily. Eventually, it will bring the win-win situation for both sides.

Appendix A

Interview

Rizza D. Pua MS candidateMedical Imaging and Radiotherapeutics LaboratoryDepartment of Nuclear and Quantum EngineeringKAIST

Q1. What do you think about Korean culture? How about the other Filipinos?

At first, I find it strange. However, after staying here for some time, I find it quite fascinating. Besides, the Korean wave is now swept the Philippines; most Filipinos have great interest in Korean culture.

Q2. What is the perception of Korean technology and know-how with regards to nuclear power in Philippines?

Korean technology is very developed, and I believe Filipinos agree on this. Currently, there are 20 operating nuclear power plants that supply 40% of the country’s electricity. Furthermore, they are planning to build a few more to generate more than 50% of South Korea’s electricity. Now, they are also entering the global market for nuclear power plants. They are slowly becoming the leader in this field.

Q3. What is the common oppion of the most phillippine people regarding to

nuclear power?

135

I think, most of the people have a negative view of what nuclear power is all about. Previous nuclear accidents, media, education, politics are some factors why people overlook the benefits of nuclear power.

Q4. Do you think it is possible for Philippines and South Korea to cooperate together on nuclear power?

Yes, it is possible. South Korea has the advanced technology. If our country cooperate with South Korea, I think it is vey helpful for us, we also can save a lot of money and energy.

Singapore

Energy R esource s and U sage in Singapore

136

Current and future energy resources and usage

The total area is 710.2 sq km, consists of mainland and islands which

consumed electricity for 6,073 MW, the peak in 2008.122To promote

competition in the electricity and gas industries and also to ensure reliability

of supply, Singapore government formed Energy Market Authority (EMA)

in April 2001. Every half hour the generation companies bid to sell

electricity at the National Electricity Market of Singapore (NEMS) which is

operated and administered by the Energy Market Company. The total

licensed generation capacity was 12,710 MW, and the total electricity

produced was 41,717 GWh. The report stated that 75% of total electricity

demand has been opened to competition. EMA is looking to implement full

contestability in the electricity retail market, which will allow domestic

consumers to buy electricity from retailers of their choice.

The second most used energy in Singapore is Gas. The gas industry consists

of two wholly separate gas networks – the town gas network that serves

about 55% of the households mainly for cooking and water heating by

domestic and commercial customers. Natural gas network is the second. It

contributes about 80% of the total electricity generated and supplied by

Indonesia and Malaysia. This is mainly used for power generation.

To open up access to the natural gas network and facilitate greater

competition, Singapore had a new implemented framework in 2008.To

diversify the resources and meet the rising demand for energy; Singapore

will be importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) 123.

122 http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/reference/yos09/yos2009.pdf Page 301, November 18, 2009

123 Ibid 2 Page 302-304, December 3, 2009

137

ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND SALES

1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Generation28,374

.8

35,281

.5

36,809

.638,212

.739,442

.141,137

.741,716

.8

Sales26,081

.2

31,985

.7

33,171

.234,761

.335,921

.8

37,420

.3

37,940

.3

Domestic5,328.

4

6,507.

1

6,524.

86,750.

36,764.

3

6,820.

86,748.

5

Manufactur

ing

11,121

.8

13,706

.7

14,446

.215,005

.015,041

.5

15,621

.6

15,482.6

Other

industries

9,631.

0

11,771

.9

12,200

.213,005

.814,116

.0

14,977

.915,709

.2

Source : Electricity Generation - Energy Market Authority (with effect from 2003)Electricity Sales - SP Services Ltd (with effect from 2003)SP PowerAssets Ltd (prior to 2003)1 Prior to August 2008, the sales data were recognised based on the meter-reading date.With effect from August 2008, the sales figures are recognised based on the invoice date.

GAS SALES

1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Piped

Gas

Sales

(Town

Gas)

(million

units)

1,266.2 1,371.1 1,344.61,374.

01,398.

21,426.

01,455.

5

Domesti

c

464.6 595.3 575.8 577.8 585.8 599.8 622.4

Non- 801.6 775.9 768.8 796.2 812.4 826.2 833.2

138

Domesti

c

Liquefie

d

Petroleu

m Gas

Sales

(net

tones)

124,697.9

119,156.2

120,868.1

90,568.0

82,543.1

94,243.9

89,137.2

Domesti

c78,179.7

45,925.4

40,296.0

34,165.2

35,174.2

35,868.1

33,128.0

Non-

domesti

c

46,518.2

73,230.8

80,572.1

56,402.8

47,368.9

58,375.8

56,009.2

Source: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Sales - Singapore Department of StatisticsPowerGas Ltd (up till 4th quarter 2001)Piped Gas Sales - City Gas Pte Ltd (with effect from 1st quarter 2002)One unit is equivalent to one kilowatt hour.

Singapore’s energy production and consumption, 2003 - 2007

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

%

change

2007

over

2006

2007

world

%

Oil production

(thousand barrels/

day)

9.7 9.8 8.6 8.6 8.6 0.00 0.01

Oil consumption

(thousand

668.3

745.7 808.6 857.0 916.0 6.88 1.07

139

barrels / day)Natural gas

production

(billion cubic

feet)

0 0 0 0 0 - -

Natural gas

consumption

(billion cubic

feet)

187.9

233.4 233.4 233.4 243 0.84 0.22

Coal production

(thousand short

tons)

0 0 0 0 0 - -

Coal

consumption

(thousand short

tons)

14.6 13.7 3.3 7.7 8.8 14.29Negligi

ble

Hydropower net

generation

(billion kWh)

0 0 0 0 0 - -

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy

SPRING, the national standards and accreditation body of Singapore is

stepping up efforts to strengthen the national standards to help Singapore

achieve sustainable development and greater energy security. It develops

standards to support the national initiative to increase the use of alternative

energy sources and raise energy efficiency such as solar power, electric

vehicles, green data centers and energy efficiency measures for buildings.

At the Quality and Standards 2009 Conference today, SPRING announced

the completion of two new energy efficiency standards for building that will

help to reduce energy consumption in Singapore. These standards support

the Green Mark Scheme of the Building and Construction Authority (BCA)

which promotes resource-efficient buildings and targets 80% of Singapore’s

140

existing buildings, one of the top energy consumers in Singapore. It sets the

requirements to attain an energy cooling environment.124

With lack of coal, geothermal or wind energy, Singapore is energy

disadvantaged. Neither has it have nuclear energy. The switch from fuel oil

to natural gas, even it has to be imported from the region, has helped

Singapore to lower our carbon footprint in power generation. 125

Singapore's National Climate Change Strategy, energy efficiency is a key

strategic thrust. It reduces emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants.

It also improves the cost competitiveness by reducing energy consumption

and increasing productivity. Last but not least, it helps to improve energy

security by moderating demand for fossil fuels.126

The Sustainable Blueprint launched recently is meant to improve the ways

Singapore uses key resources such as energy and water. Therefore, the

growth of fewer resources can make Singapore more competitive in the long

run. So far, Singapore has achieved 35% improvement in energy efficiency

from 2005 levels by 2030. This target will be reviewed as new technology

and policy levers become available.127

1.2 Nuclear usage in the country

Historical, cultural and political elements that influence the pursuit of

nuclear power in Singapore

The vulnerability in energy security situations of Singapore such as

having a limited price-setting degree than a price-taker degree,

which is obviously seen in the case of the increase of imported oil

prices, neither Singapore has massive stockpiles and production

capacity nor the geopolitical influence to keep the price down. To

minimize the shock of changing price and over dependency on

124 http://www.spring.gov.sg/NewsEvents/PR/Pages/New-Standards-for-a-Sustainable-Singapore-20091117.aspx December 4,2009

125 http://app2.nea.gov.sg/APEC%20speech.aspx February 10,2010

126 Ibid 4, February 10,2010

127 Ibid 4, February 10,2010

141

fossil fuel, Singapore needs to diversify other fuel sources by

having Bio-fuel, solar, wind energy and nuclear which have its own

pros, cons and risks that need to be considered.

As part of ASEAN, Singapore has a significant role in the

discussion about Nuclear, such as being the venue of meetings in

August 2007 – energy ministers of the ASEAN meet in Singapore

during the 13th ASEAN Summit to discuss nuclear power use and

safety issues. Singapore proposes the establishment of the ASEAN

Nuclear Energy Safety Sub-sector Network (NES-SSN), Jan 2008,

a place to held Inaugural NES-SSN meeting, Mar 2009 as a place

where ASEAN officials and academics meet international nuclear

energy experts to discuss nuclear safety, the global nuclear-safety

regime and approaches to regulation, as well as more specific

issues of nuclear-waste management, the transportation of spent

fuel and emergency responses.128

Future nuclear usage in Singapore

2.1. Current nuclear power plant project

There is no current power plant project in Singapore.

2.2. Future development of nuclear power plant

Nuclear energy is already beginning to tip throughout Southeast Asia.

Regarding nuclear energy, countries in Southeast Asia are divided into

three main groups; they are advancers, aspirants and abstain. Some

countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand who fall under the

advancer group possess some form of nuclear facility have already

floated proposals for the erection of 16 nuclear reactors.

Countries such as The Philippines, Malaysia, Cambodia and Myanmar

who fall under aspirants group are considering nuclear energy as an

option. Despite of the groups they are included in, there is a possibility

that Southeast Asia regions, especially in countries who are regarded as

128 http://www.siiaonline.org/?q=research/nuclear-power-asia-a-timeline December 4,2009

142

advancers and aspirants could possess some form of nuclear facility by

2025.

Singapore, as well as other countries such as Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and

East Timor for various reasons fall under abstain category for nuclear

energy. The absent of nuclear energy in Singapore, particularly affected

by tectonic geopolitical changes in the region that may coerce nuclear

ambitions to an end. Those countries are also not having a nuclear

timeline. Hence, the technical complication of nuclear energy and the

lack of necessary space for the required safety stand-off range of a

nuclear site from urban areas (30 kilometres).

Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment

that commits signatories to civilian nuclear power cooperation that

ensures safety, security and nonproliferation, the declaration acts as the

biggest offset for nuclear energy ‘Singapore Declaration on Climate

Change, Energy and the Environment’, which Southeast Asian states

inked at the third annual East Asia Summit in 2007, specifically states

they will, as part of their commitment to “urgently act to address the

growth of global greenhouse gas emissions”, “intensify ongoing

cooperation to improve energy efficiency, and the use of cleaner energy…

by…cooperating for the development and use of civilian nuclear

power”.129 For these reasons, nuclear energy in Singapore for the near

future is impossible because it can hardly be pursued.

Country (Singapore)

Safeguards Agreement

Additional Protocol

CPPNM* Joint Convention*

Yes No No No

ASEAN Nations’ Membership in International Nuclear Agreements*CPPNM = Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear

Material*Joint Convention = Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Water Management

129 http://project2049.net/documents/southeast_asia_nuclear_energy_future.pdf January 28,2010

143

Source: Tanya Ogilve-White. “Non-proliferation and Counter-terrorism Cooperation in Southeast Asia”. Contemporary Southeast Asia, April 2006, Vol. 28, No. 1.

3. Nuclear regulation making: who gets involved and their responsibility

From 1973 to 2007, Singapore’s facilities and work in nuclear

applications were controlled under the regulatory framework of the

Radiation Protection Act. In 2007, the legislation was modified to transfer

the roles and functions of the Centre for Radiation Protection from the

Ministry of Health to the National Environment Agency under the

Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources. The Centre for

Radiation Protection was replaced by the Centre for Radiation Protection

and Nuclear Science (CRPNS) and, with a staff of 25; the CRPNS is now

the national regulatory authority for radiation and nuclear activities in

Singapore. Its responsibilities include controlling the storage of radiation

sources and the disposal of radioactive waste.

3.1. Present nuclear usage in the country especially nuclear power

plant

Until very recently, Singapore had never publicly considered

embarking upon a civilian nuclear power programme. Singapore’s

energy sources are less diversified than those of its closest

neighbours and the government has expressed concern over the

state’s vulnerability to supply disruption. There is a projection from

Singapore’s government that electricity consumption will double

over the next 20 years. The preceding considerations and the appeal

of nuclear energy as a low-carbon source mean that the nuclear

option must be included in any serious policy study of energy

alternatives. At an energy conference in late 2008, Minister Mentor

Lee Kuan Yew mooted the possibility of building a nuclear power

plant at sea or on Pedra Branca Island (near Malaysia). One rather

144

futuristic idea recently floated is to consider putting a nuclear

reactor underground in stable rock formations in which Russian

nuclear researchers have worked on this concept for several years.

A more likely possibility, at least in terms of technical feasibility, is

that Singapore could in future benefit from nuclear energy.

3.1.1. The pros and cons of nuclear usage in the country

To minimize the vulnerability and shocks in the oil market, the

important question now is whether nuclear energy remains as a

fallback option that should be raised. Prime Minister Lee Hsien

Loong does not rule out the possibility of Singapore having a

nuclear power plant in the long run. However he notices some of

difficulties that would arise, such as the scale of the project and

also the issues of safety but in the other hand, he is sure enough

that the evolvement of technology might be able to fix those

problems. 130

Present nuclear power is a very controversial topic in world politics

and is definitely a geopolitical baggage. The evaluation of

Singapore’s energy needs and resources is important to make a

well-reasoned decision whether or not to take up the nuclear

option.

A national energy policy report published in 2007 concluded,

however, that because of problems associated with the size and

population density of Singapore and the storage of nuclear waste,

an indigenous nuclear-energy capability was not feasible.

Moreover, the international standard for nuclear plant safety zone

of 30kmwide which was raised by the Prime Minister Lee Hsien

Loong in December 2007. How relevant this issue for a limited

landmass country which stretches only 40km east to west leaves a

big question.

130 http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking+News/Singapore/Story/STIStory_311184.html December 4,2009

145

However, a remarked from Former chief defence scientist at

Singapore’s Ministry of Defence Lui Pao Chuen needs to be

considered. A combination of a sufficiently costly carbon tax and

consistently high oil prices could contribute to changing the way

government views the nuclear cost–benefit equation in the future.

Nuclear energy, with its risk of meltdown or leak is very much

undesirable and does not sit well with the public. The general

absence of the absolute need of additional energy exists, especially

because the amount of energy derived from nuclear reactors is

radically large, as compared to the current energy usage.

There are several critics regarding the introduction of nuclear

energy for betterment and advancement of Singapore’s society and

economy. The volatilities of the oil market, the over dependency on

oil and gas to provide energy needs, the inadequacy of the

increased use of natural gas, the lack of any plans of development

into other alternative energy sources, and lastly the likely

development of nuclear reactors in neighbouring countries,

provided compelling enough reason to face the geopolitical

baggage of nuclear energy head on and problems of public fears

and common misconceptions about nuclear power in Singapore.131

Korea-Singapore Relations

Korean investment

Being a member of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)

brings benefit to Singapore's participation in world’s largest free trade area

in 10-nation group. One of the significant progresses was conclude of

Korea-Singapore FTA (KSFTA) on 4 August 2005. After it had been

through some rounds of negotiations since January 2004, it entered into

force on 2 March 2006. It features a high level of liberalization in free trade

131 http://www.nuspa.org/cms/?q=node/38 December 4,2010

146

service covering wide range of areas and investment is one of those. The

reduction of 100% tariff of all goods that fall immediately upon the

effectuation of the agreement from Singapore government affects the trade;

doubled number in 2008 was an obvious example, it reached 25USDbn. It

also indicates the leverage of Korea’s investments in Singapore by over

USD800m. (Kemmis)132

Diplomacy

Despite cultural and geographical distance between Korea and Singapore,

these countries have been maintaining close ties not only in the areas of

economy and trade, but also in other areas such as politics and security.

Their relation is highly related with the importance of APEC’s role in

connecting and realizing sustainable and balanced economic development of

the region and deterring trade protectionism. The existence of G20 and

APEC are necessary to overcome the economic crisis and set up new

directions for development.

The in-depth talks held by President Lee with CEOs, business

representatives from the Asia-Pacific region expressed great interest in

various issues related to the economy, namely a speedy recovery from the

crisis, negotiations for the Doha Development Agenda, economic

integration beyond borders, energy security, activation of foreign

investment, etc.133

There are an increasing number of high-income South Koreans who are

obtaining permanent residency in Singapore. The few main reasons for that

are to give their children better educational opportunities, enjoy post-

retirement living and take advantage of tax breaks. Currently, there are

132 http://singaporehedgefund.wordpress.com/2009/07/05/a-guide-to-investing-in-singapore/ December 2,2009

133 http://www.korea.net/News/Issues/issueDetailView.asp?board_no=21255 January 19,2010

147

approximately 15,000 Koreans who are living in the island city state,

Singapore.

Singapore’s Perception of Korean culture

It would seem hard to believe that cultural exposure to South Korea has

been relatively recent in Singapore. Historically, the presence of Koreans in

Southeast Asia had not been visibly significant compared to the Japanese

and Chinese.134

The mark of the growing interest of both Singaporeans and Koreans in one’s

another’s culture and history over the recent years featured on the wedding

costumes joint stamp issue of Singapore Post (SingPost) and Korea Post

released on 30 Mar 07 it was also the first major collaboration between

SingPost and Korea Post.135

The Korean community, meanwhile, elaborated on the growing popularity

of Hallyu, or the Korean Wave in Singapore through TV dramas and food.

Community members called for the Korean government to consider opening

a Korea culture centre and improve conditions for businessmen or diplomats

staying in Singapore.

In Singapore, increased familiarity with Korean popular culture, moreover

the set up of Korean Cultural Society in the Nanyang Technological

University encourages greater social interactions between Singaporeans and

Korean residents in the republic. Interest in learning Korean has spurred the

growth of language centres, the formalization of student exchanges between

Korean and Singaporean. It is hoped that the presence of these South

134 http://www.ari.nus.edu.sg/docs/newspapers/KoreanWave-04Mar2008-newspaper.pdf January 19,2010

135 http://singpost.com.sg/downloads/media/press_release/07/PR20070326.pdf January 19,2010

148

Korean students would serve as cultural ambassadors in building more

sustained socio-cultural relations.136

Ensuring that the interest in Korean culture continues beyond Hallyu,

therefore, requires the quick and concerted responses to the interest in

Korean-language learning and the important and belated opening of a

Korean studies department or institute.

In the meantime, the prevalence of Korean popular culture outside the

Korean Peninsula has served as an inspiring example to Singapore. Sharing

the legacy of the post-war “dragon economies,” local media have been

pondering whether a similar phenomenon is possible for the city-state;

nonetheless, the projection of South Korea’s soft power has shown to

Singaporeans that one does not need to be in the centre of the world to be

popular.137

There are many fields in which Korea has considerable experience. Nuclear

is one of the fields that Korea has considerable experience in. Singapore is

looking for a real cooperation with Korea such as preparing individuals,

regional feasibility studies, etc that would bring great value.

Details of nuclear collaboration: non proliferation, energy, training,

research

If Singapore ever were to decide to pursue nuclear power, it would need to

build the necessary physical, regulatory and personnel infrastructure from

scratch. The nation has no research reactor and its only nuclear experience is

with nuclear applications in medicine and industry. Scientific research in

136 Ibid 6

137 Ibid 6

149

these fields is carried out in universities and other educational institutions.

Since 1976, Singapore has completed 25 national projects with the IAEA,

mostly in the fields of radiation protection and radioisotopes. Two IAEA

projects remained active in mid 2009.138

Singapore has participated in 53 still-active and 38 completed inter-regional

and regional technical-assistance projects. An example of Singapore’s

nuclear-science achievements can be seen in the March 2009 establishment

by Singapore Radiopharmaceuticals Pte Ltd of a S$10.8 million (US$7.1

million) state-of-theart cyclotron and central radiopharmacy facility for the

production of radiopharmaceuticals for molecular imaging of cancer, heart

and brain diseases and biomedical research.139

Safety is the nuclear-related issue of greatest concern to Singapore. In

considering the nuclear-energy aspirations of neighboring countries,

Singaporean officials are largely silent on the proliferation potential. They

do worry, however, about trans-boundary health and environmental risks,

and the impact a nuclear accident or incident might have on the trade and

transport routes on which Singapore relies. They also know that any nuclear

accidents in the region would probably set back any prospect of Singapore

introducing nuclear energy.140

Attitudes towards Korean industry or government as a partner for

nuclear industry.

Based on the interview with Dr. Joseph Hui Kim Sung, General Director of

Environmental Protection Division, Korea must work closely with

Singapore if it wishes to play a major role in the region. This is mainly

because Singapore’s role as the bilateral and multilateral coordinator for a

138 Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia (Singapore) p.1

139 Ibid 10 p.1

140 Ibid 10 p.2

150

variety of critical discussions on energy policy in the region. Korea could

play a greater role as a regional partner in South East Asia by helping to

introduce regional partners and coordinate cooperation in the nuclear field.

However, so far Korea has not really played such a role.

Singapore is looking to Korea to play a leadership role in the region. That

would mean concretely, taking the lead in pursuing nuclear safety at a

regional level. This can be done by sponsoring international conferences in

the region on critical topics. Creating and promoting a systematic regional

nuclear safety program that does not yet exist so far.

Korea could help to prepare individual and regional feasibility studies that

would be of great value. There are many fields in which Korea has

considerable experience, but unfortunately at the international seminars we

attended; little indication of Korean willingness to cooperate.

Conclusions and suggestions

The need for Singapore to look for emerging technologies that are safest

and have the least negative impact on the environment makes the pursuit

for nuclear energy a critical issue. The main task if nuclear power plant is

to be built is to persuade the public to accept the existence of this power

plant on the main island. There are about 56 research reactors in fourteen

countries of the Asia Pacific region. The only major Pacific Rim countries

without any kind of research reactor are Singapore and New Zealand.141

Based on several drawbacks such as tectonic geopolitical changes,

technical complication of nuclear energy, this may coerce nuclear

ambitions to an end.

For a country with a limited landmass that only stretches 40km east to

west makes nuclear power plant sited nowhere in this densely-populated

mainland. The international standard for nuclear plant safety zone of

30kmwide makes the decision irrelevant. On the other hand, this is only a

141 http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/default.aspx?id=386&terms=singapore February 8,2010

151

matter of public reassurance than for technical reasons. The main reason

is to evacuate people easily in terms of the worst-case scenario.142

Singapore has another alternative by making an underground nuclear

plant, although it higher initial costs occur, but stable and solid rock

formation in parts of Singapore would serve as a shield during a disaster.

Below-surface plant offer better protection against terrorist attacks.

Nuclear power plant can be built on a floating platform out at sea. With

one condition, if Singapore can figure out logistic issue, heavy sea traffic

carrying trade that create security management problem. 143

Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment

that ensures safety, security and non-proliferation is the biggest offset for

nuclear energy. However in the long term, Singapore’s Economic

Strategies Committee (ESC) has suggested the necessity to seriously

consider the feasibility of nuclear energy. Advances in nuclear technology

and thorough studies make the viability for a much safer Nuclear power

plant in small city-state like Singapore possible.144

Hence, there is an increasing need for affordable and reliable energy supplies to support the rapid pace of economic expansion in ASEAN. Joint Ministerial Statement, on the 25th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) agreed to the establishment of an ASEAN Nuclear Energy Safety Sub-Sector Network to explore nuclear safety issues. 145

Based on the article about Nuclear Option in Singapore, technology

advances, stringent requirements, automation and protective concrete,

steel and alloy have made nuclear energy much safer option and have

reduced the risks of human error and accident.

142 Nuclear Option in Singapore Straits Times Feb 7, 2010 Lim, Leonard

143 Ibid 21

144 http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_485230.html March 14,2010

145 “Energising ASEAN to Power a Dynamic Asia” Singapore, August 23, 2007

152

Myanmar

Introduction

Myanmar is an improbable nuclear state. It consistently ranks among the

poorest countries in the world, suffers horrific catastrophe after horrific

catastrophe (Cyclone Nargis killed an estimated 85,000 people alone in 2008;

initial figures even placed the toll close to 130,000), and suffers a military

dictatorship that always has its hand full with suppressing popular unrest.146

146 “Burmese Endure In Spite of Junta, Aid Workers Say,” The New York Times (June 18, 2008), http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/18/world/asia/18myanmar.html.

153

Typically, a state with such dire characteristics would seek alternate, cheaper

energy sources. Yet Myanmar is on the verge of harnessing nuclear power.

Myanmar’s energy outlook is far from bleak. With significant stores of oil and

gas, Myanmar is completely self-sustaining. In the face of Western antagonism,

the ruling junta has goaded nuclear powers such as Russia and North Korea into

supplying nuclear know-how and materials.

The energy picture

In recent years, Burma has experienced a stark increase in energy

production. From 1998 to 1999, Burmese authorities recorded a 54.6% growth

in the energy sector; from 1999 to 2000, that figure rose to 66.5%.147 Burma’s

current oil production is equivalent to roughly 180,000 barrels per day (bpd).

2008 figures from Jane’s place the country’s total oil reserves around 3.2 billion

barrels;148 the central basin system alone contains 800 million barrels of

“recoverable reserves.”149 Even though the oil figures are impressive by world

standards, natural gas represents 90% of total output.150 Burma boasts a grand

147 Europa Regional Surveys of the World: The Far East and Australasia 2007, 38th Edition, Routledge (London: 2006), 801.

148 “Natural Resources,” Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment – Southeast Asia (June 2008), http://sentinel.janes.com/.

149 Curiale, J. A., et al, “The Central Myanmar (Burma) Oil Family–Composition and Implications for Source,” Organic Geochemistry, Vol. 22, Issue 2 (November 1994), 237.

150 “Oil and Gas in Myanmar,” Total in Myanmar, http://burma.total.com/en/contexte/p_1_2.htm.

154

total of 9.9 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The Burmese government

received US$2.16 billion in earnings from the sale of natural gas in 2006

alone.151

Civil unrest poses problems, but Myanmar has attracted many outsiders to

its promising resources and congenial investment environment. As of 2007,

nine foreign oil companies were actively establishing zones to explore onshore

oil resources.152 In 2005, the Yadana and Yetagun fields alone yielded a total of

9 million cubic feet of natural gas, all for consumption by Thailand.153 From

2000 to 2009, Total SA, a French company, generated over US$5 billion for the

Burmese junta as a result of a Yadana pipeline project.154 Towards the end of

2009, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the Burmese

government agreed to grant CNPC sole proprietorship over a 479-mile China-

Burma oil pipeline,155 which transferred an expected 12 million tons of oil

within its first few months from the Burmese province of Rakhaing to Yunnan

province in China.156 Offshore resource exploration is also abundant: the junta’s

151 “Burma: Foreign Oil and Gas Investors Shore Up Junta,” Human Rights Watch, http://www.hrw.org/legacy/campaigns/burma/drilling/.

152 Ibid.

153 Europa Regional Surveys of the World: The Far East and Australasia 2007, 801.

154 A. Buncombe, “Burmese General Pocket $5bn from Total Oil Deal” (September 10, 2009), http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/burmese-generals-pocket-5bn-from-total-oil-deal-1784497.html.

155 “CNPC To Build And Operate China-Myanmar Pipeline,” Pipeline & Gas Journal, No. 237, Vol. 2 (Feb 2010) , 14

156 Ibid, 14.

155

own Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) manages 25 offshore oil fields,

in addition to several foreign companies with stakes including the United States’

Unocal Corporation and Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasion Bhd.157

The Republic of South Korea (ROK) is also an intended benefactor in the

reaping of offshore wealth. The ROK’s Daewoo International Corporation

(DIC) is the leader of an compendium of comprised of India’s state oil and gas

companies, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Gas Authority of

India, Ltd. (GAIL) respectively, in the establishment of a formal agreement with

China for a US$5.6 billion harvest and redistribution of natural gas from Burma

to China.158 Just offshore the Burmese province of Arakan, a plot expectedly

yields upwards of 3 trillion cubic feet of gas.159 As of August 2009, the DIC,

ONGC and GAIL conglomeration were expected to invest $40 billion for the

natural gas exports.160 The 2006 Filipino nonprofit Initiatives for International

157 Europa Regional Surveys of the World: The Far East and Australasia 2007, 801.

158 “Daewoo in $5.6 bln Myanmar Gas Export Deal to China,” Reuters (August 25, 2009), http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSEO5594720090825.

159 C. Mortished, “Daewoo to Transport Burmese Gas to China,” Times Online (August 25, 2009), http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article6809336.ece.

160 Ibid.

156

Dialogue’s estimated Daewoo’s profit from the endeavor around US$100

million.161

Nuclear power in context

Burma does not currently maintain a nuclear infrastructure. For the past

15 or so years, the country has tried, almost ostentatiously, to acquire nuclear

capabilities.162 In September 2000, Burma approached the International Atomic

Energy Agency (IAEA) for its help in the acquisition of a nuclear reactor, to

which the IAEA agreed (so long as Burma would calibrate its program to world

standards).163 To this day, the IAEA provides minimal levels of technical

assistance for nuclear medicine, agriculture, and indirect research reactor

support.164 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also provides

Burma with other technical assistance, limited to guidance from facilities within

the ROK.165

161 Europa Regional Surveys of the World: The Far East and Australasia 2007, 801.

162 M. Malley, “Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Southeast Asia, 2006-2016,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 13, No. 3 (November 2006), 609.

163 D. Albright, “Burma: A Nuclear Wannabe, Suspicious Links to North Korea and High-Tech Procurements to Enigmatic Facilities,” Institute for Science and International Security (January 28, 2010), 1.

164 Ibid, 2.

165 Ibid, 2.

157

With so much alternate energy investment, it is hard to believe that the

Burmese government would consider nuclear power. Yet there are two

important reasons why Burma is seeking nuclear power. First, Burma will need

to invest in nuclear power if it hopes to compete with neighboring countries.

Powerful or experienced nuclear states have constructed dynamic relations with

ASEAN countries, and examples abound. Within the past decade, China has

unleashed a “charm offensive” on Southeast Asia, leaving many region-wide

countries to reconsider China’s traditional role as a purveyor of arms and anti-

West rhetoric.166 Due to this outside influence, the prospect of nuclear

proliferation in Burma has risen. Burma, because of strained relations with its

regional allies, has sought atomic technologies from both Russian and North

Korean sources,167 and established significant military ties with both India and

China.168

Second, there is evidence to support Myanmar’s quest for nuclear

weapons. The best method for Myanmar to gain an atomic bomb is through an

emphatic pursuit for nuclear energy (just as Iran and North Korea have

demonstrated in recent years). A Burmese defector identified as “Tin Min”

expressed doubt in the peaceful intentions of Myanmar’s gestures towards a

166 D. Shambaugh, “China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order,” International Security, No. 29 (Winter 2004-2005), 65.

167 “Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Southeast Asia, 2006-2016,” Nonproliferation Review, 605.

168 Ibid, 610.

158

nuclear program: “They say it’s to produce medical isotopes for health

purposes in hospitals. How many hospitals in Burma have nuclear science?

Burma can barely get electricity up and running. It’s nonsense.”169

The junta knows that the best method to obtain a nuclear arsenal is through

duplicity: Attain the materials and expertise needed for a nuclear power

program, and then convert those benign materials and expertise into weapons-

grade products. Myanmar has made considerable effort to elaborate its peaceful

intentions for nuclear technology. In 1992, Myanmar became a signatory to the

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which seeks to stop nuclear weapons

dissemination. The Burmese government has maintained its unwavering

adherence to NPT protocols ever since.170 Not only do Burmese defectors

contend that Russian nuclear scientists were already advising Burmese sources

on plutonium reprocessing, but also that Burmese “uranium deposits from the

mines have been sent to Russia and Iran for evaluation.”171 Myanmar operates

both a civil reactor and a light-water reactor at Magwe and Naung Laing,

respectively.

Interaction between Myanmar and the Republic of Korea

169 “Report Reveals 2014 Nukes Target,” Bangkok Post (August 2, 2009), http://www.bangkokpost.com/print/21317/.

170 “Burma: A Nuclear Wannabe, Suspicious Links to North Korea and High-Tech Procurements to Enigmatic Facilities,” Institute for Science and International Security, 3.

171 Ibid.

159

Myanmar and the ROK’s relations are cordial. The ROK maintains an

embassy in Myanmar, but Myanmar’s isolationist nature makes improving the

dynamic between the two nations unlikely. Though Myanmar receives most of

its small nuclear aid elsewhere, the ROK may figure in Myanmar’s nuclear

ambitions in the years to come. The ROK has engaged Myanmar on technical

education. In an agreement established in September 2009, to enroll 150 of

ASEAN’s—including representatives from Myanmar—scientists and

government workers in a training program lasting until 2011.172 Other energy

technologies might boost ROK-Myanmar nuclear technology transfers in the

future, such as a recent $1.3 billion deal in which the Myanmar government

commissioned the ROK’s Hyundai Heavy to construct a natural gas plant.173

Conclusion

Myanmar may feel pressure to seek nuclear technology—specifically,

nuclear weapons— to upset the regional balance of power. While other

Southeast Asian nations, such as Malaysia or the Philippines, may feel the need

172 “S. Korea to Train Myanmar Technicians on Nuclear Energy,” Xinhua Online (September 2, 2009), http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/02/content_11986225.htm.

173 Kyong-Ae Choi, “Korean Shipbuilders Are Changing Course,” The Wall Street Journal (April 12, 2010), http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303828304575179554158440956.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_section_Heard.

160

to diversify their existing resources due to their rate of consumption in the years

to come, Myanmar would probably stand to gain more from exploiting its

current energy supply. Therefore, the only possible benefit of nuclear

technology is a nuclear weapon capability that would offset the conventional

arms superiority of Thailand or other neighboring countries. While the majority

of isolationist Myanmar's intentions may be insoluble for years to come, the

international community is almost unanimous in its conviction that Myanmar is

seeking nuclear materials for intimidation, not energy.

Appendix A

Government and Political Outlook

Undeniably, the prosperity afforded to Myanmar in the form of energy

wealth has reduced the probability of regime change. As the regime generates

more earnings, the ruling junta becomes stronger. According to coordinator

Matthew Smith of Earth Rights International’s Myanmar project, “Of the

$4.83bn generated since 2000, approximately US$4.8 billion of that is not

included in the national budget, and our sources indicate that the military

regime is storing its illicit revenue and ill-gotten gains in two foreign banks in

Singapore.”174

174 “Gas Firms ‘Prop Up Myanmar's Junta,’” BBC News Online (September 10, 2009), http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8249374.stm.

161

Even though it would appear that Myanmar is making strides towards a

more open and fair political system, the reality is that the junta’s overbearance

on Burmese citizens is more obtrusive than ever. In order to boost its

democratic credibility, the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)

announced a series of electoral laws limiting electoral participants to only those

with proven loyalty to the junta.175 Though it promised “free and fair”

proceedings, the SPDC, headed by Gen. Than Shwe, will assuredly bear down

on the opposition party National League for Democracy (NLD) in time for the

upcoming elections.176 The restrictive Political Parties Registration Law, in

which political prisoners are not afforded rights to represent their chosen party

(there are currently 2,100 political prisoners in Myanmar), is but one example of

the new laws’ dismissal of due process.177 The 400,000-strong junta is unlikely

to suffer setbacks in its continued domination of the country (even the revised

2008 version of the constitution explicitly states that at least 25% of members of

parliament must be active-duty military;178 according to one clause, even those

married to foreigners are stricken from participating).179

175 “Country Report–Burma,” Economist Intelligence Unit (March 2010), 4.

176 Ibid.

177 Ibid.

178 Ibid.

179 P. Reynolds, “Burma’s Junta Unlikely to Buckle,” BBC News Online (August 15, 2009), http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8203253.stm.

162

Myanmar’s immovable stance towards its foreign policy is troubling for its

improving upon its standing as a pariah state. Myanmar maintains a steady

unwillingness to engage the international community. Even so, outside pressure

has yielded mixed results. ASEAN is essentially powerless against reforming

Myanmar from within, but several ASEAN countries, citing the “intractability”

of the regime, continue to restrict Myanmar’s formal chairmanship of official

ASEAN posts.180 According to Foreign Minister of Indonesia Marty

Natalegawa, “We [ASEAN] continue to remind the Myanmar government of

their promises to hold elections which are internationally acceptable.”181

Myanmar’s affairs with China, a rising superpower hoping to limit American

and ASEAN influence, may prove discouraging as Burmese in-country

discrimination against Han ethnic groups rises.182 Regardless, China is

considering a US$20 billion “soft loan” to Burma to generate intra-state

trading.183

Appendix B

Economy

180 L. Jagan, “ASEAN’s Leaders Growing Weary of Intractable Junta,” Bangkok Post (April 17, 2010), 11.

181 Ibid.

182 “Country Report–Myanmar (Burma),” Economist Intelligence Unit, 6.

183 G. Rachman, “The Decline of American Influence, Part 304 (Turkey and Burma),” Financial Times (March 24, 2010), http://blogs.ft.com/rachmanblog/2010/03/the-decline-of-american-influence-part-304-turkey-and-burma/.

163

Myanmar’s economy is expected to recover in 2010 from the global

recession, but this slight rebound will not offset the junta’s incompetent

economic management. The Burmese government did not insert economic

indicators or “fiscal stimulus measures” to confront the 2009 global slump

because of its preoccupation with military funding.184 As a result, the private

economy will suffer. Because of the junta’s unwillingness to reform, Myanmar’s

total outstanding debt of US$7.2 billion, as of 2008, will remain virtually

unchanged.185

Myanmar was at one time the “rice bowl of Asia,” due to its incredible

output of agriculture.186 Unfortunately, ever since the State Law and Order

Council (SLORC) began directing economic affairs in 1988, in effect setting a

course towards market-based capitalism and away from the longstanding

“Burmese Way to Socialism,” the Burmese national currency kyat has remained

inflated and the junta financial chiefs have approached the world political

economy off-kilter. In one view, asserted by Paul Cook and Martin Minogue in

World Development, Myanmar's this economic reorganization was “hostage” to

political change. 187 Because a market-based economy can only gain from

184 Ibid, 7.

185 “Myanmar at a Glance,” World Bank (December 9, 2009), http://devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/mmr_aag.pdf.

186 Europa Regional Surveys of the World: The Far East and Australasia 2007, 799.

187 P. Cook and M. Minogue, “Economic Reform and Political Change in Myanmar (Burma), World Development, Vol. 21, No. 7 (1993), 1151.

164

market reform through foreign capital inflows, sanctions against the government

and a stark decrease in outside aid as a result of the government’s tyrannical

policies dried up what was predicted to be a dramatic increase in revenue.

CAMBODIA

Section 1 The energy picture

Energy Resources and Usage

Current and future energy resources and usage: oil, natural gas, water, wind, etc.

(Current and future mix; anticipated increase in electrical usage)

Cambodia has made considerable progress in reforming the power sector,

particularly in passing the Electricity Law in 2001 and establishing a

regulator. But in addition to some of the highest electricity costs in the

world, Cambodia also has one of the lowest electrification rates in Asia

165

with 12 percent of its population of 13 million connected to a power

supply. (Source: The World Bank).

Currently, Cambodian electricity is supplied by 22 small isolated systems.

The largest system is in Phnom Penh, which has a population of around

1.1 million people. All the existing generating facilities in the country are

oil-based diesel generation depending on imported oil and low efficiency

in distribution. (Source: Chandara Lim, Suon Ponnarith, Energy

Resources in Cambodia – Country Report for 2001 TCDC International

SHP Training Workshop).

Production, consumption => fees, environmental effect, etc.

The production of electricity in 2007 was 1,516 GWh. Today, less than

15% of households in Cambodia has access to electricity (urban 53.6%,

rural 8.6%). Nearly 80% of total energy consumption is in the form of

biomass from dried twigs, bark, leaves, dung and so on. As

aforementioned, electricity plants in Cambodia are generated by imported

oil.188 Hence, the electricity tariff is rather expensive in Cambodia.

Cambodia’s electricity-generation mix is 96% from oil, 4% from

hydropower and less than 1% from solar power. The country is currently

promoting the production of biodiesel to lessen the dependence on

imported oil. (Source: Cambodia Bio-energy Development Promotion

Project – Study Report – Engineering and Consulting Firms Association,

Japan – Japan Development Institute (JDI) – Kimura Chemical Plants

Co., Ltd).

188 Current Status of Electricity Sector of Kingdom of Cambodia, 12 October 2009,

<http://agmhp.aseanenergy.org/focus/4/tahun/2009/bulan/10/tanggal/12/id/60/>

166

The demand for electricity, 75% of which is supplied by outdated diesel-

fuelled power plants, is growing by about 20% per annum. The lack of

electricity is symptomatic of Cambodia’s status as one of the world’s

poorest countries, with an estimated per capita GDP of only $2,000 in

2008.

Environmental impact

Cambodia possesses large hydropower potential and some coal reserves.

Its offshore oil and gas reserves that initially looked promising were later

found to be lying in complicated geological structures. The development

of hydropower resources is Cambodia’s first energy priority, with four

contracts for plants in the Mekong River, worth $3bn, already granted to

Chinese companies. Between 2010 and 2019, Cambodia plans to open

nine hydropower dams, supplying the country with 1942MWe.

Nonetheless, the construction of large hydropower dams has raised a

number of issues in relation to environmental safety. The lower Mekong

area, which includes Cambodia, also has high potential for hydropower.

The construction of dams for hydropower plants may result in a number

of negative consequences on the environment. The nutrient sediments

may be trapped in the dam instead of flowing to the plains, biodiversity is

threatened, climate changes may occur in form of unexpectedly

devastating floods or severe droughts.189

Section 2 Nuclear power in context

189 Pomeranz, Kenneth, The Great Himalayan Watershed: Water Shortages, Mega-Projects

and Environmental Politics in China, India and Southeast Asia, The Asia-Pacific Journal:

Japan Focus

167

Nuclear usage in Cambodia: Historical, cultural and political elements that

influence the pursuit of nuclear power

There has been no precedent of nuclear power in Cambodia.

However, in September 2008, Prime Minister Hun Sen

announced his government would build a nuclear power plant to

address future energy needs and reduce Cambodia’s dependence

on oil.

Present and future nuclear usage in the country especially nuclear power

plants

Cambodia has no nuclear infrastructure: no nuclear facilities and

no organizational structure or personnel trained to operate,

manage or regulate nuclear programs. The nation is not

currently a member of IAEA and has not adhered to any nuclear

safety or security convention other than the Convention on the

Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, which it acceded to in

2006.

Public opinion: The pros and cons of nuclear usage in the country

The pursuit of nuclear power by Cambodia brings in different

opinions from the public. Over Internet blogs, Cambodian

168

bloggers showed their interest in the announcement of nuclear

power establishment by the government. But they also show a

cautious attitude due to the Chernobyl nuclear power hazard in

Ukraine in 1986.190

The Cambodian government, at this stage, remains a careful

attitude towards nuclear power. One the one hand, the

government expresses an interest in exploiting nuclear power to

meet the increasing energy demand. On the other hand,

everything is still being weighed and the Cambodian government

said that it is a long distance for Cambodia to achieve their goal.

Prospects for nuclear usage in Cambodia

Considering the current situation of Cambodia, for the country to

realize its nuclear aspirations, it would have to start from scratch

by building up a support infrastructure for nuclear power,

including electricity grids, trained personnel, safety regulations

and a framework establishing legal responsibility. The IAEA

estimated that it would take at least 15 years for any country new

to the field to realize the pursuit of nuclear power.

Section 3 Regulatory Bodies for nuclear power and radioactive materials

190 Cambodia will have nuclear power plants to generate electricity, 14 October 2009,

<http://cambodiamirror.wordpress.com/2009/10/15/cambodia-will-have-nuclear-power-

plants-to-generate-electricity-wednesday-14-10-2009/>

169

Currently, there is no nuclear infrastructure in Cambodia, including no

nuclear facilities and organizational structure or personnel trained to

operate, manage or regulate nuclear programs.

Section 4 Korea-Cambodia Relations

Korean investment in Cambodia

Cambodia became the sixth leading destination for South Korean overseas

investment. The total amount of South Korean investment in Cambodia to

March 2008 stood at 1.46 billion US dollars, followed by China, the US,

Hong Kong of China, Vietnam and Malaysia. The number of South Korean

investors in Cambodia was above 500 and they used to focus on the

garment sector. In recent years, Korean investment in Cambodia diversified

to banking, agriculture, food processing, tourism, manufacturing,

construction, and IT. Construction is the dominant filed for South Korean

investment in Cambodia.191 Noticeably, Hyundai is going to build a vehicle-

assembling factory in Kaoh Kong province of Cambodia.192

Meanwhile, South Korea's imports from Cambodia totaled 8.9 million U.S.

dollars in 2007, an increase of 62.5 percent over 2006, and South Korea's

exports to Cambodia have posted big rises over the past three years,

amounting to 144 million U.S. dollars in 2005, 206 million U.S. dollars in

2006, and 281 million U.S. dollars in 2007.

191 Cambodia 6th leading destination for Korean overseas investment, 15 August, 2008,

<http://en.ce.cn/World/biz/200808/15/t20080815_16500588.shtml>

192 S Korea’s Hyundai Group to build vehicle assembling factory in Cambodia: ambassador,

14 October 2008, <http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/14/content_12232224.htm>

170

Korea-Cambodia Diplomacy

Cambodia – South Korea relations have been developed for over the last decade

after the two countries established official bilateral diplomatic relations in 1997.

In the year of 2009, Cambodia – South Korea signed several cooperation

agreements including the grant and loans for Cambodia’s road rehabilitation,

waste water treatment, Siem Reap River’s development and cooperation in the

fields of construction, energy, mines and communications.193

Cambodia and South Korea became comprehensive and strategic partners with

cooperation in many fields in October 2009 as announced by Cambodian

Foreign Minister, Hor Namhong.194 Now Korean tourists are granted one-year

visa to visit Cambodia. Approximately 270,000 South Korean tourists visited

Cambodia in 2008 and South Korean visitor numbers have consistently been in

top five countries visiting Cambodia in the past five years.

Perceptions of Korean culture in Cambodia

Like its neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, Cambodia is becoming

more familiar with Korean pop culture. The influence of the Korean Wave,

also known as Hallyu, left its footprints in young Cambodian people’s life.

There have been more and more Cambodian singers and film stars

193 Naro, Neth, Cambodia-South Korea Relations, Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and

Peace (CICP), 6 July 2009

194 Cambodia, S.Korea Deepen Strategic Partnership, DAP News, 23 October 2009

<http://www.dap-news.com/en/index.php?

option=com_content&view=article&id=432:cambodia-s-korea-deepen-strategic-partnership-

&catid=20:dap-news-breaking-news&Itemid=2>

171

following their Korean counterparts’ styles. Today young Cambodian

embraces Korean fashion and styles eagerly.195

Korean language becomes popular in Cambodia. Many young Cambodians

start to learn Korean language in order to work with Korean businesspeople.

Universities are providing Korean classes for students who wish to learn,

such as the Royal University of Phnom Penh opened a Korean Department

in January 2007. The mutual culture of both nations has been improved

through the relation seen in Angkor – Gyeongju World Culture Expo held in

2006 at Siem Reap. It was the biggest cultural exchange event between the

two countries.

Perceptions of Korean technology and know-how with regards to nuclear

power in Cambodia

Korea is generally well perceived amongst average Cambodian people as a

country with advanced technology. The presence of Korean companies like

Samsung and LG in Cambodia creates an image of high-tech for Korea

under the eyes of Cambodian in general.

In terms of nuclear technology, it may appear that there is little

collaboration between the two nations. No literature has been found so far

in relation to this issue.

195 Quenby, Joel, Piset, Tha, Leading a Korean invasion: K-Pop and all that Hallyu, 25

August 2009, <http://khsugar.blogspot.com/2009/08/leading-korean-invasion-k-pop-and-

all.html>

172

Opportunities for Korea

The preliminary findings show the close relation between Cambodia and

South Korea, which is positive for South Korea to be potential partner in

nuclear power of Cambodia. Moreover, civilian nuclear energy is supposed

to solve the repletion of fossil fuel, environmental safety and energy safety.

As a result, many countries in ASEAN have acknowledged their national

plans of pursuing civilian nuclear power. However, this type of power

requires high technology due to its complexity and high risks. Only a few

countries in the world including South Korea possess the latest technology

that can ensure a higher level of safety. That Cambodia develops its civilian

nuclear energy is still in the future. South Korea should work closely with

Cambodian experts to advocate the advantages of South Korean technology.

Once the Korean technology’s economic and technological feasibilities are

proved to suit the current situations of Cambodia, it is possible for South

Korea to be the contractor of the Cambodian nuclear power plan.

Appendix A

Interview:

Cambodia Interview196:

Hun Sen

196 Ker Munthit, Cambodia Hopes to Build Nuclear Plant, 26 September 2008 <http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=14322>

173

Prime Minister

Impoverished Cambodia hopes to build a nuclear power plant to meet its

future energy needs and help offset its dependence on imported oil, Prime

Minister Hun Sen announced Friday during the first meeting of his new

Cabinet.

In outlining his new government's vision, he said one of its priorities will be

to expand electrical generation to power its small but growing economy.

Increased housing and factory construction will generate more demand for

electricity, he said.

Hun Sen offered no hint when Cambodia would actually have its first

nuclear power plant, saying it is still "a long distance away for us, but this is

our goal."

Building hydroelectricity and coal power plants will be the immediate

priority for expanding electricity generation and reducing reliance on

imported oil, Hun Sen said.

The government has identified 14 potential sites for hydropower plants and

has granted contracts to Chinese companies to build several of them.

Electricity costs in Cambodia are among the highest in the world, and only

about 15 percent of the country's 14 million people are connected to the

power grid, according to the World Bank.

Cambodia is the latest country in the 10-member Association of Southeast

Asian Nations to express interest in pursuing nuclear energy. Neighboring

Thailand also recently decided to press forward with studies on building a

nuclear power plant.

174

At their meeting last year, the regional grouping's energy ministers agreed to

set up a network to explore nuclear safety issues after acknowledging that

some member nations were exploring nuclear energy.

175

East Timor

1. Energy resources and usage

2.

1.1. Current and future energy resources and usage

All the information below is taken from journal “A Policy Proposal for the

Introduction of Solar Home Systems in East Timor”197

Three-quarters of Timor population live in rural areas of whom 95% don’t

have access to electricity. Consequently, improving the rate of household

connections will involve significant investment in rural electrification. With

a sparse, dispersed population and rugged, mountains terrain, many parts of

East Timor are unsuited to the expansion of the national electricity grid.

Over the next 20 years, the aim of East Timor government is to increase the

rate of household electricity service from 20% to 80%. Given the fact that

Timor has a largely rural population living in sparsely populated, remote

locations, SHS (solar home systems) will play an important role.

World Bank has examined six key features of East Timorese which can be

included in Solar PV projects: delivery infrastructure; access to finance;

rural electrification policy; guarantees for minimum quality; understanding

of customer needs; and scaling up capacity building. This is likely to show

the present stage of its development which is not market driven approach

but a model which subsidizes capital costs but also seeks full recovery of

operating costs.

1.2 Nuclear usage in the country

197 Journal December 5,2009

176

East Timor has barely established the necessary infrastructure for internal electricity generation, and can thus ill-afford to think about its potential for nuclear power generation.198

Country (East Timor)

Safeguards Agreement

Additional Protocol

CPPNM* Joint Convention*

No No No NoASEAN Nations’ Membership in International Nuclear Agreements*CPPNM = Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear

Material*Joint Convention = Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Water ManagementSource: Tanya Ogilve-White. “Non-proliferation and Counter-terrorism Cooperation in Southeast Asia”. Contemporary Southeast Asia, April 2006, Vol. 28, No. 1.

2. Korea-East Timor relations:

2.1. Trade: Korean investment, economic

An article in Korea Times mentioned about East Timor who seeks Korea’s

investment.199

Despite of a close bond in history between Korea and East Timor, East

Timor as a natural gas-rich country has great potential for Korean investors.

The honorary consul of East Timor to Korea Park Tae-woo said the profit

from natural gas itself is growing, reaching $243 million in 2005 from $41

million in 2004. ``East Timor with rich natural gas is seeking active foreign

investment in its various development projects,''

Other favourable areas for foreign investment such as infrastructure, roads,

highways, power plants and buildings are ready to be developed.

198 http://project2049.net/documents/southeast_asia_nuclear_energy_future.pdf January 28,2009

199 http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/special/2009/09/176_13520.html December 6,2009

177

``The country still needs significant assistance from outside. Helping them

can also benefit Korean investors by creating a friendly atmosphere.''

East Timor recently signed a memorandum of understanding that gives

South Korea preferential access to the gas and also to develop natural

resources (field of petroleum resources), the first time East Timor has made

a gas and energy supply contract with a foreign country since it became

independent in 2002. But under the Greater Sunrise agreements, Woodside

and its partners retain the right to market the gas.200

2.2. Politics: diplomacy

Korean companies were working with the government of East Timor on surveys for establishment of a LNG plant in East Timor and East Timor's Prime Minister agreed to positively consider providing Korea with status as a preferred recipient nation of natural gas. Besides, the MOU covers joint research and development for yet-to-be-developed reserves, and establishes a ministerial-level resources cooperation council to continuously expand the bilateral energy partnership.201

2.3. Perception of Korean technology and knowhow with regards to nuclear

power

Linking businesses to job seekers has been done through the new Labour

Market Information System. It links 890 employers with around 20,000

registered workers. Employment and training are also provided overseas

with over 400 Timorese approved to work in South Korea202

2.4. Attitudes towards Korean industry or government as a partner for

nuclear industry.

Gyeonggi Province Women's Professional Training Center will contribute to

activating the handcraft goods industry, by utilizing the traditional culture of

East Timor. Given the fact that East Timor is one of the poorest countries in

the world, the center will be of great help to the nation's economic self-

200http://www.investsmart.com.au/news/news.asp?DocID=AGE081124IG6BE1OHK4C&Action=Display&s_cid=newsletter:is:954 December 6,2009

201 http://energyplus.or.kr/community/left_sitemap_04/gallery_list.php December 6,2009 East Timor inks first ever energy MOU with Korea

202 http://easttimorlegal.blogspot.com/2009/11/job-creation-priority-for-xanana-gusmao.html December 18, 2009

178

sufficiency. It has launched a wide range of projects to support the social

stability and economic reconstruction of East Timor, in order to maintain a

continuous cooperative relationship. Last year, former President of East

Timor Gusmsao participated in the World Peace Festival held in Imjingak,

the very site of the division between North and South Korea, to deliver a

message of peace.203

3. Conclusions and suggestions

Although there are three-quarters of Timorese that live in rural areas and

95% of them don’t have access to electricity, the decision of using nuclear

as a source of energy should be considered thoroughly. The geographic facts

of East Timor, rugged, mountains terrain, the dispersed population; many

parts of East Timor are unsuited to the expansion of the national electricity

grid. East Timor government thinks SHS (solar home systems) will play an

important role in the next few years.

East Timor has barely established the necessary infrastructure for internal

electricity generation, and can thus ill-afford to think about its potential for

nuclear power generation. Even if East Timor has a concern about nuclear

power generation, building a nuclear power plant takes time. Based on the

report of World Bank, the capital costs must be subsidized and full recovery

of operating cost in a long run. The availability of data is another constraint.

Entering a new market where the information is really hard to be collected is

risky. Therefore, the decision to make a nuclear power plant can be

postponed until East Timor is ready politically, economically or from other

factors.

Appendixes

1. Country Facts

All the information below is mostly taken from CIA (2009)204

203 http://english.gg.go.kr/news/viewToday.jsp?seq=649&page=1&method=&query= January 28,2010

204 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tt.html November, 18, 2009

179

1.1. Introduction

East Timor is located in South East Asia. It has a highly developed and

successful free-market economy. It enjoys a remarkably open and

corruption-free environment and stable prices.

1.1.1. Location

Located in southeastern Asia, northwest of Australia and at the eastern

end of the Indonesian archipelago.

1.1.2. Area

The total area is 14,875 sq km, consists of land only.

1.1.3. Climate

Mostly tropical, hot with distinct rainy and dry seasons

1.1.4. Natural resources

Gold, marble, petroleum, natural gas and manganese

1.1.5. Land use

Arable land: 8.42% Permanent crops: 4.57% Other: 87.23%

1.1.6. Natural Hazards

Floods, earthquakes, tsunami, tropical cyclones and common landslides

1.1.7. Geographic Note

Timor comes from the Malay word for “East”; the island of Timor is

part of the Malay Archipelago and is the largest and easternmost of the

Lesser Sunda Islands.

1.2. Demographics

1.2.1 Population

In July 2009 is about 1,131,612 (est.)

1.2.2 Population Growth Rate

2.027%

1.2.3 Ethnic Groups

Austronesian (Malayo-Polynesian), Papuan and small Chinese minority

1.3. Governance

1.3.1. Administrative Divisions

Thirteen administrative districts

1.3.2. International Organization Participation

180

ACP, ADB, ARF, CPLP, FAO, G-77, IBRD, ICAO, ICCt, IDA, IFAD,

IFC, IFRCS, ILO, IMF, IMO, Interpol, IOC, IPU, MIGA, NAM,

OPCW, PIF (observer), UN, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, Union

Latina, UNWTO, UPU, WCO, WFTU, WHO

1.4. Economy

1.4.1. Economy-overview

East Timor continues to face great challenges in rebuilding its

infrastructure, strengthening the civil administration, and generating

jobs for young people entering the workforce. The development of oil

and gas resources in offshore waters has begun to supplement

government industry. There are no production facilities of technology-

intensive industry

1.4.2. GDP

The GDP per capita of East Timor (2008 est.) was $2,300 with the real

GDP growth 12.8%. GDP consists of three main sectors: agriculture,

industry and services

1.4.3. Labor Force

NA. Labor force – by occupation: agriculture 90%, industry and

services NA%

1.4.4. Unemployment rate

20% (2006 est.)

1.4.5. Population below Poverty Line

42% in 2003

1.4.6. Investment

NA

1.4.7. Exports: Commodities, Partners.

• Commodities: coffee, sandalwood, marble, potential for oil and

vanila

• Partners: NA

1.4.8 Imports: Commodities, Partners

181

• Commodities: food, gasoline, kerosene, machinery

• Partners: NA

LAOS REPORT

KINS Project

Section 1 The energy picture

Energy Resources and Usage

Current and future energy resources and usage: oil, natural gas, water, wind, etc.

(Current and future mix; anticipated increase in electrical usage)

The main energy opportunity for Laos lies in hydropower, which already

provides about 97 percent of its electricity. Rural electrification is one

the major achievements in Laos with the connection rate increasing from

about 16 percent of all households in 1995 to 38 percent by the end of

2003. Electricity of Laos (EOL), the State owned electricity corporation,

has increased its capacity remarkably through the implementation of five

projects funded by the IDA and the ADB. However, as electrification

moves to increasingly remote areas, grid connection becomes less viable.

In response, the Government of Laos has promoted off-grid delivery

models, favoring renewable technologies. Laos’ goal is to connect 90

percent of households by 2020 with intermediate targets of 60 percent

and 70 percent in 2005 and 2010 respectively.

The need for further electrification remains high. The average cost for

non-electrified households (on diesel, gasoline and candles) is ten times

higher than what electrified households pay for lighting services.

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Electrified households enjoy lighting quality which is 100 times higher in

terms of kilo-lumen hours. (Source: The World Bank).

Mountainous terrain and heavy annual rainfall give Laos considerable

hydroelectric potential. The Mekong River and its tributaries in Laos

have an estimated hydroelectric potential of between 18,000 and 22,000

megawatts, or roughly half that of the river as a whole.205 Today, the

World Bank is assisting Laos with the construction of hydropower

projects, such as the Nam Ngum 5 and the Nam Theun 2 dams. A large

share of the energy produced by the latter project will be sold to Thailand

and Vietnam. Further projects include the outsourcing of the mining of

coal and construction of coal-fired plants by commercial companies.

Currently, rural electrification remains the major policy goal for Laotian

government. The access to electricity is very limited, particularly in rural

areas whilst distribution losses are very high. Of the total energy

consumed, nearly 90 percent is in the form of biomass.

Environmental impact

Laos possesses large hydropower potential and some coal reserves.

Nonetheless, the construction of large hydropower dams has raised a

number of issues in relation to environmental safety. The lower Mekong

area, which includes Laos, also has high potential for hydropower. The

construction of dams for hydropower plants may result in a number of

negative consequences on the environment. The nutrient sediments may

be trapped in the dam instead of flowing to the plains, biodiversity is

threatened, climate changes may occur in form of unexpectedly

devastating floods or severe droughts.206

205 Laos Energy <http://countrystudies.us/laos/78.htm>

206 Pomeranz, Kenneth, The Great Himalayan Watershed: Water Shortages, Mega-Projects

and Environmental Politics in China, India and Southeast Asia, The Asia-Pacific Journal:

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Section 2 Nuclear power in context

5.1.1. Nuclear usage in the country: Historical, cultural and political

elements that influence the pursuit of nuclear power.

There has been no precedented case of nuclear power usage or

application in Laos. (Source: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in

Southeast Asia and Australia).

5.1.2. Present and future nuclear usage in the country especially

nuclear power plants

Laos has no nuclear program, facilities or bureaucracy of any

kind and has never expressed any interest in nuclear power. It

acceded to the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty

in 1996 and therefore prohibits nuclear weapons. It ratified the

NPT in 1970 and the CTBT in 2000 and adopted a

Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement in 2001, with measures

limited by a Small Quantities Protocol. Laos is not an IAEA

member and has not signed any IAEA nuclear safety or security

convention. (Source: Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast

Asia and Australia).

5.1.3. Prospects for nuclear usage in the country

Japan Focus

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Considering the current situation of Laos, it is unlikely that the

country would like to pursue nuclear aspirations. In case Laos

wishes for nuclear energy development, it would have to start

from scratch by building up a support infrastructure for nuclear

power, including electricity grids, trained personnel, safety

regulations and a framework establishing legal responsibility.

Section 3 Regulatory Bodies for nuclear power and radioactive materials

Currently, there is no nuclear infrastructure in Laos, including no nuclear

facilities and organizational structure or personnel trained to operate,

manage or regulate nuclear programs. (Source: Preventing Nuclear

Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australia).

Section 4

2.7 Trade: Korean investment

Laos is currently South Korea's smallest trading partner among ASEAN

countries, with the two-way trade volume amounting to US$104 million in

2008.207 South Korea investments in Laos were concentrated in hydropower

industry. Recently, Korea investments have flown more into mining and

construction in Laos. (Source: Gunawardana, Pemasiri J., Trends and

Partterns of Foreign Direct Investment in Lao PDR)

Koreans operate about 60 small and medium businesses in Laos as of

October 2004. At the end of the third quarter of 2009, South Korea became

207 Lee, Youkyung, Interview: Diplomatic ties with S. Korea helped economic development :

Laotian PM, 2 June 2009,

<http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Interview/2009/06/02/5/0901000000AEN20090602008500

320F.HTML>

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the 4th largest foreign investor to Laos with $908 million.208 Main exports

from Korea to Laos include automobiles and clothing, meanwhile main

imports from Laos to Korea comprise of food and timbering. (Source:

Korean Overseas Information Service / www.korea.net).

2.8 Politics: diplomacy

Laos and South Korea established trade relations in November 1973. Then,

the two nations established diplomatic relations in June 1874. In July 1975,

there were severe diplomatic relations between Laos and South Korea.

However, the two countries resumed diplomatic relations in October 1995.

South Korea opened its embassy in Laos in September 1996 and Laos

opened its embassy in South Korea in January 2001.

2.9 Perception of Korean culture

Korean pop culture can be viewed in Laos via Korean dramas and art

performances, as disclosed by the Laotian Prime Minister, Bouasone

Bouphavanh. However, it may appear that the Korean Wave does not affect

Laotian people to the extent it does to other neighboring countries of Laos

in Southeast Asia. It may be assumed that it is caused by small and

scatteredly dispersion of Laos’ population.

2.10 Perception of Korean technology and knowhow with regards to nuclear

power.

It is unobvious at this stage to learn about Laotian’s perception of Korean

technology and knowhow with regards to nuclear power. No literature has

been found in relation to this topic. Nevertheless, with the increasing

208 Business Desk, Laos approves US$4.3b in investments, Vientiane Times, 27 October

2009, <http://www.asianewsnet.net/news.php?id=8401&sec=2>

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cooperation between Korea and Laos, Laos’ first stock exchange being built

up applying Korean technology, it is presumed that the Laotian Government

is aware of the advance of Korean technology in general.209

2.11 Opportunities for Korea; suggestions to Korea

For the time being, it is assumed that Laos’ priority in energy development

remains hydropower. South Korea should work closely with Laotian

experts to advocate the advantages of South Korean technology. Once the

Korean technology’s economic and technological feasibilities are proved to

suit the current situations of Laos, it is possible for South Korea to be the

contractor of the Laotian future energy projects.

209 Laos launches Stock Market in 2010, 8 July 2008, <http://www.aseanaffairs.com/page/laos_to_launch_stock_market_in_2010>

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