A Study on the Foreign Reserve of China Desheng Fan Guest Speaker

8/14/2019 A Study on the Foreign Reserve of China Desheng Fan Guest Speaker

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A Study on the Foreign Reserve ofChina and related issues


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Fan DeshengFan DeshengSchool of International BusinessSchool of International Business

Beijing Foreign Studies UniversityBeijing Foreign Studies University

E-mail:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Copyright 2004 South-Western

Main Contents

Economics as a social science

About the Foreign Reserve of China


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Economics as a social science

Q1: Are you happy? what is the happiness?

Q2:How can you live a satisfying life?


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Happiness

The benefits derived fromconsuming are called utility .

Understanding the happiness:

Cannot compare the utilities of

different people. Cannot say "You are happier than I am"

Can say "You would be willing to paymore than I am for some good.

Wants

UtilityHappines =


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Hierarchy ofNeeds

Need Product Promotional appeal

Self-actualization

Esteem

Social

Safety

Physiological

Golf Clubs

Luxury car

Pendant

Tires

Breakfast cereal

Time is to enjoy

Be in control of the Road

Show her you care

Bounces off hazards

The natural energy source


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how to improve the happiness

Happiness =utility /wants Defined

5 ways to improve thehappiness

1

2

3

4

5

w

w

u

u

h

h =

W

U

H =


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Case study: measure yourhappiness

How happy are you? Sure, you may think you know, but this little test will help you keep

score. The satisfaction with Life Scale was devised in 1980 by University of Illinois

psychologist Edward Diener, a founding father of happiness research. Since then the scale

has been used by researcher around the world.

Reading the following five statements. Then use a 1-to-7 scale to rate your level ofagreement.

Not at all true moderately true absolutely true

In most ways my life is close to my ideal.

The conditions of my life are excellent.

I am satisfied with my life.

So far I have gotten the important things I want in life.

If I could live my life over, I would change almost nothing.

Tot al s cor e__ __ __

1 2 3 4 5 6 7


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Scoring:

31 to 35: you are extremely satisfied with your life

26 to 30: very satisfied 21 to 25: slightly satisfied

20 is the neutral point

15 to 10: slightly dissatisfied

10 to 14: dissatisfied

5 to 9: extremely dissatisfied



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Eight Steps Toward a More Satisfying Life

Want to lift your level of happiness? Here are somepractical suggestions from University of Californiapsychologist Sonja Lyubomirsky, based on research

findings by her and others. Satisfaction ( at least atemporary boost) guaranteed



1. Count your blessings.One way to do

this is with a gratitude journal in which

you write down three to five things for

which you are thankful---from the

mundane( your peonies are in bloom) to

the magnificent( a childs first steps). Do

this once a week, say, on Sunday night.

Keep it fresh by varying your entries as

much as possible.



2. Practice acts of kindness.These should be bothrandom( let that harried mom go ahead of you in the

checkout line) and systematic (bring Sunday supper to

an elderly neighbor). Being kind to others, whether

friends or strangers, triggers a cascade of positive

effects---it makes you feel generous and capable, gives

you a greater sense of connection with others and wins

you smiles, approval and reciprocated kindness----allhappiness boosters.



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Eight Steps Toward a More Satisfying Life( cont.)

3. Savor lifes joys. Pay close attention to

momentary pleasure and wonders. Focus on the

sweetness of a ripe strawberry or the warmth

of the sun when you step out from the shade.Some psychologists suggest taking mental

photographs of pleasurable moments to review

in less happy times.



4. Thank a mentor. If theres someone whom

you owe a debt of gratitude for guiding you at

one of lifes crossroads, dont wait to express

your appreciation---in detail and , if possible ,inperson.



5.Learn to forgive. Let go of anger and

resentment by writing a letter of forgiveness to

a person who has hurt or wronged you. Inability

to forgive is associated with persistentrumination or dwelling on revenge, while

forgiving bolsters positive feeling about your

past and gives you peace of mind.



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Eight Steps Toward a More Satisfying Life( cont.)

6. Invest time and energy in friends and

family. Where you live, how much money you

make, your job title and even your health have

surprisingly small effects on your satisfactionwith life. The biggest factor appears to be strong

personal relationships.



7. Take care of your body. Getting plenty of

sleep, exercising, stretching, smiling and

laughing can all enhance your mood in the

short term. Practiced regularly, they can helpmake your daily life more satisfying.



8. Develop strategies for coping with stress

and hardships. There is no avoiding hard

times. Religious faith has been shown to help

people cope, but so do the secular beliefsenshrined in axioms like This too small pass

and That which doesnt kill me make me

stronger. The trick is that you have to believethem.

Material resources: Times February 28.2005


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Eighteen Ways to Be GladEighteen Ways to Be Glad


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1.Goal1.Goal


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2.Smiles2.Smiles


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3.Participation3.Participation


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4 .Helper4 .Helper


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5.Childishness5.Childishness


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6.Intercommunication6.Intercommunication


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7.Humor7.Humor


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8.calmness8.calmness


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9.Mercy9.Mercy


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10.Fellows10.Fellows


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11.Cooperation11.Cooperation


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12.Family-enjoyment12.Family-enjoyment


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13.Self-confidence13.Self-confidence


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14. Sympathy14. Sympathy


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15.Loose15.Loose


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1616 AAffusionffusion


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17. Visit a friend


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18. No Moneygrubber18. No Moneygrubber


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Why? no moneygrubber


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Money is not everythingMoney is not everything

It can buy you a house but not a home.It can buy you a house but not a home.It can buy you a bed but not sleep.It can buy you a bed but not sleep.


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It can buy you a clock but not time.It can buy you a clock but not time.

It can buy you books but not knowledge.It can buy you books but not knowledge.


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It can buy you blood but not life.It can buy you blood but not life.

It can buy you sex but not love.It can buy you sex but not love.


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It can buy you a position but not respect.It can buy you a position but not respect.

It can buy you medicine but not health.It can buy you medicine but not health.


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Money may not be the root of all evil,Money may not be the root of all evil,

But it often brings us anguish andBut it often brings us anguish andregrets.regrets.

ld l k ll h l h


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Now I would like to tell you how to solve theNow I would like to tell you how to solve theproblem, my dear friends.problem, my dear friends.And I hope you will forward the solution to otherAnd I hope you will forward the solution to other

friends of yours.friends of yours.


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Give all your money to me. Let meGive all your money to me. Let mesuffer from the anguish for you.suffer from the anguish for you.

Right now, Ok? :-)Right now, Ok? :-)


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Further reading

Research study finds that happily marriage canmake one more happy ,but reading as follows:


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I married Miss Right.

I just didnt know her first

name was ALWAYS!!!


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Marriage is a 3-ring circus:

Engagement Ring

Wedding Ring

SuffeRing


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The last fight was my fault.

My wife asked, Whats on the

TV?

I said: ...

DUST!


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In the beginning, God created earth and rested. Then God created

man and rested. Then God created woman.

Since then, neither God nor man has rested!


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Do you know the punishment for bigamy?

Two MOTHER-IN-LAWS!


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Why do men die before their wives?

They want to!


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A beggar walked up to a well dressed woman shopping on

Rodeo Drive and said: I havent eaten anything in four days.

She looked at him and said? ...

I wish I had your willpower!

Young son: Dad I heard that in some parts of Africa


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Young son: Dad, I heard that in some parts of Africa

a man doesnt know his wife until he marries her?

Dad: That happens in every country, son.

A i i ifi A


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A man inserted an ad in the classified: WIFE WANTED.

The next day he received a hundred letters.

They all said the same thing:

You can have mine!


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Now I am unhappy , why?

A Study on the Foreign Reserve of

China


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yea r For ei gn Re ser ve Annu al gr owt h ra te% 0.1 b illion

199 4 516 .2 14 3.5199 5 735 .97 42 .57199 6 1050 .4 9 42 .74199 7 139 8.9 33 .17199 8 1449 .5 9 3.62199 9 1546 .7 5 6.7200 0 1655 .7 4 7.05200 1 2121 .6 5 28 .14200 2 2864 .0 7 34 .99200 3 4032 .5 1 40.8200 4 6099 .3 2 51 .25200 5 8188 .7 2 34 .26200 6 106 63. 44 30 .22200 7 152 82. 49 43 .32200 8 1946 0. 3 27 .34

The mont hl y d at a Fo rei gn Re se rve Monthly Monthly


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increasein 200 8 0.1 b ill io n 0.1billiongrowth rate

1 15898.1 615.51 4.032 16471.34 573.24 3.613 16821.77 350.43 2.134 17566.55 744.78 4.435

17969.61 403.06 2.296 18088.28 118.67 0.667 18451.64 363.36 2.018 18841.53 389.89 2.119 19055.85 214.32 1.1410 18796.88 -258.97 -1.411 18847.17 50.29 0.2712 19460.3 613.13 3.25

Graph : monthly growth rate of FR


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Graph : monthly growth rate of FR2008

12008%

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Reasons why the FR increases


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Reasons why the FR increasesquickly

resouces:

current account: trade surplus

capital and financial account: A. FDI B. hot money

George Solos: financial crocodile

Southeast Asian Financial Crisis

)()( MXSTCLTCF ++=


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Effect on the Economy of Huge FR

Inflation Monetary policy independence

Why the u s pressure on china to


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Why the u.s. pressure on china torevalue Reminbi

Trade : TOT (terms of trade) Finance: speculation

Example:


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Thank you for your listening!

Documents

A Study on the Foreign Reserve of China Desheng Fan Guest Speaker