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A study on the discrepancy of the ideal and actual parity among
Hong Kong married women
Mengni Chen and Paul S. F. Yip
The University of Hong Kong
ABSTRACT The prolonged low fertility of Hong Kong reflects some changes in people’s fertility desire and indicates some barriers to childbearing among married couples. This paper examines recent trends of the fertility desire, investigates the factors influencing childbearing intentions, and reveals the underlying motivations as well as difficulties of childrearing experienced by couples at different parity levels. Based on the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) survey of married women in Hong Kong in 2012, we conduct parity-specific logistic regressions focusing on the fertility intention of the transition from parity 0 to 1, parity 1 to 2, and parity 2 to 3. Our results show the following: (a) marital life satisfaction, the ideal parity, household income, and good communication with husband about childbearing decision are significantly associated with the intention of women at parity 0 to have their first child; (b) wife’s working status, especially having a part-time job, and the gap between ideal and actual parity are associated with women’s intention to have a second child; (c) wife’s working status, especially having a full-time job, and gender inequality in the division of housework are factors significantly related to women’s intention to have a third child. Our results suggest that the factors, motivations, and difficulties associated with childbearing and childrearing differ across parity levels. The results would be applicable to women in other high-income Asian countries. The formulation of any pronatalist policies in Hong Kong should consider these parity-specific differences.
Introduction
Hong Kong’s total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 1.9 children per woman in 1981
to 1.1 in 2013 (HKCSD, 2012, 2014) and is projected to remain below 1.2 for the next
50 years (HKCSD, 2015). Currently, the TFRs of Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, and South
Korea are all below 1.5 children per woman (Quah, 2015) and may remain at a low
level for the near future (Basten, 2013; Frejka, Jones, & Sardon, 2010). The transition
to an ultra-low level of fertility in these high-income Asian economies was driven by
substantial changes in marital structure—delayed marriage and increasing non-
marriage—as well as changes in childbearing behaviour (Straughan, Chan, & Jones,
2008; Yip & Lee, 2002; Yip, Li, Xie, & Lam, 2006). With the rise of women’s
educational attainment and labour force participation rate, marriages have been greatly
delayed and/or reduced. Meanwhile, lower-order births are now being postponed until
women are in their thirties and higher-order births are declining. Both the ‘tempo effect’
and the ‘quantum effect’ (Bongaarts & Feeney, 1998) have depressed the fertility rate
of married women. With an ageing population and the shrinkage of the workforce, the
low fertility issue has had a substantial impact on the population structure and has
become a major challenge to the sustainable development of Hong Kong and other
high-income Asian countries.
The prevalent behaviour of delaying marriage among young generations may be “a
direct response to a desire to avoid or delay childbearing” (Frejka et al., 2010). Low
fertility among married couples may also reflect changes in their fertility desires and
intentions (Berrington, 2004; Billingsley & Ferrarini, 2014). Given the widespread
fertility decline in the world, many recent studies have attempted to investigate (a)
whether the observed childbearing behaviour adequately reflects people’s aspirations
and preferences for children and (b) the potential factors leading to the unrealized gap
between people’s ideal and actual parity (Philipov, 2009). Here, we are interested in
investigating how the fertility desire of Hong Kong married couples have changed over
the past 20 years, and what concerns and motivations lie behind their fertility intentions.
Fertility plan and fertility behaviour are parts of a sequential decision-making
process that is very sensitive to changes in individuals’ circumstances; and factors
affecting childbearing may vary as the actual number of children increases (Namboodiri,
1972; Udry, 1983). Having a first child is very different from the transition to parity 2
or 3. With the arrival of their first child, a husband and a wife irreversibly become a
father and a mother. The transition to parenthood is a long-term commitment which
may be more sensitive to the instability of economic conditions and partnerships
(Blossfeld, Klijzing, Mills, & Kurz, 2006). The decision to have a second or third child
may be closely related to the previous experience of raising the first child (Billari,
Philipov, & Testa, 2009; Margolis & Myrskylä, 2014). In East and South Asia, gender
inequality within the household may prevent the transition to parity 2 or 3 (Frejka et al.,
2010; McDonald, 2000) as the burden of housework and childcare often falls on the
mother’s shoulders. After having their first child, women who have a bad experience of
playing the conflicting roles of mother and worker may no long intend additional births.
A recent study on Korea has found that husbands sharing the burden of housework does
have a positive effect on intention to have a second child (E. H.-W. Kim, 2013).
Therefore, noting these heterogeneities across the parity levels, this paper aims to
answer the following research question: “For women with no children, one child, or
two children, what are the factors or barriers related to their childbearing intentions?”
By identifying the barriers to childbearing for women at different parity levels, some
insights can be generated for formulating efficient pronatalist policies. In this study, we
first investigate the trends of fertility desire and the profiles of the fertility gap (i.e. the
discrepancy between ideal and actual parity). We then examine the factors associated
with parity-specific fertility intentions and compare the motivations to have children
and the childrearing difficulties of couples at different parity levels.
Literature review
Fertility desires and fertility intentions are two important concepts in studying the
childbearing behaviour, and sometimes are used interchangeably. However, there are
some differences between the two. The fertility desire, which is often measured by
“ideal family size” or “ideal number of children”, reflects a wish of childbearing under
an ideal context; and may be influenced by personal traits, preferences, likes and values
(Miller, 2011; Philipov, 2009). The fertility intention is often measured by asking
whether a person intend to have a/another child in the future or in a certain period of
time, and emphasizes more on the actionability, commitment and planning (Miller,
2011). Compared to fertility desires, fertility intentions is a more realistic measure
(Philipov, 2009): on one hand, it will be influenced by the desire; on the other hand, it
is relatively more susceptible to changes in the contextual factors and individual
circumstances (Billari et al., 2009; Miller, 2011; Philipov, 2009). Hence, the fertility
intention is a very crucial link through which individuals transfer their fertility desire
into actual behaviour.
Till now, Hong Kong’s fertility has remained below the lowest-low level (i.e. TFR
of 1.3 children per woman or below) for almost 30 years. And the preference for small
families is prevailing and seems to have become a norm rather than an exception,
reflecting a decline in the fertility desire (Yip et al., 2006). Under this context,
investigating the fertility desire and intention together may help us understand whether
Hong Kong’s low fertility is driven by low fertility intention due to some removable
barriers, or is driven by an irreversible change in people’s desire for children.
After comparing the childbearing patterns in East Asia, Gavin Jones has pointed
out several common factors for the ultra-low fertility in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea,
Japan, and Singapore: increasing job insecurity; gender inequality within the household;
a trade-off between child quantity and child quality, with increasing educational
expectations for children; and changes in the aspiration of the young generations
underlying the fast economic growth, rapid globalization and expansion of higher
education system (Frejka et al., 2010; G. W. Jones, 2012). Empirical studies from
western countries have demonstrated that the impacts of these factors are parity-specific.
On the economic insecurity, studies have shown that it will depress people’s intention
to have first or second child (Fiori, Rinesi, Pinnelli, & Prati, 2013; Kreyenfeld &
Andersson, 2014), which are consistent to the “risk aversion theory” that individuals
will invest more in education or work to reduce their economic insecurity and avoid
risk behaviour such as childbearing (Becker, 2009). Regarding the gender inequality,
the negative impact on the fertility intention- especially on second births- is evidenced
in many countries (Cooke, 2003; Mencarini & Tanturri, 2004; Mills, Mencarini,
Tanturri, & Begall, 2008; Oláh, 2003), which is termed as “the second shift” for a
second births (Torr & Short, 2004).
Apart from the aforementioned factors, the partnership quality which has been
discussed in the West, is still lack of attention in eastern societies. In Asia, the majority
of childbearing still takes place within marriage. The quality of marriage may have an
impact on fertility intention, but whether positive or negative is still in hot debate.
Theoretically, couples in good marriage may avoid childbearing as the arrival of
children may decrease their happiness, while couples in bad marriages may see children
as a solution to marriage crises (Friedman, Hechter, & Kanazawa, 1994). However,
empirical studies have revealed that good partnership is associated with higher
likelihood of first and second birth (Berninger, Weiß, & Wagner, 2011; Rijken &
Thomson, 2011). In Hong Kong and other neighbouring countries, relevant research at
the micro level is still very limited, although the declining fertility rate and the
increasing divorce rate have been concurrently observed at the population level.
In sum, this paper takes efforts to investigate the fertility intention among married
couples in a parity-specific approach. This is one of the very few studies focusing on
the decision-making process of childbearing in the context of Hong Kong. Our analysis
may help reveal to what extent the discrepancy between ideal and actual parity can be
narrowed or even closed, adding knowledge to Hong Kong’s low fertility issue.
Data and methods
The present study mainly made use of data from the latest Knowledge, Attitude and
Practice (KAP) survey conducted by the Family Planning Association of Hong Kong
(FPAHK) from 1992 to 2012. The KAP survey is the longest running community-based
survey of family planning in Hong Kong and has been implemented every five years
since 1967. The topics of the survey cover a wide range of family planning issues
among married or cohabiting women aged 15 to 49 years. The sampling frame was the
Frame of Quarters, which has been maintained by the Census and Statistical
Department of Hong Kong. The basic unit for respondent selection was the nuclear
family, from which the eligible woman (aged 15-49 and married or cohabiting) was
asked to participate in the survey. The sampling yielded 1,518 married or cohabiting
women aged 15 to 49, with a response rate of 83%, and 1,059 husbands or partners,
with a response rate of 70%. For comparison with previous waves of the KAP survey,
we only used the sample of 1,518 women in order to capture the trends of fertility desire.
However, for a further regression analysis, our samples consisted of 1,029 couples after
excluding 11 respondents who or whose husbands were born infertile and following
some data cleaning.
Fertility desire was measured by the ideal parity (i.e. the ideal number of children)
by asking married women the question “How many children do you want ideally?” The
question “How many children do you have currently?” was used to evaluate the actual
number of children the women had. The fertility gap refers to the discrepancy between
the ideal and actual number of children. To measure fertility intentions, married women
who already had children were asked the question “Would you like to give birth again?”
and the married women who had no children were asked the question “Would you like
to give birth?” The question on fertility intention is placed after the question for fertility
desire in the questionnaire. The response options were as follows: “1 = yes,” “2 = no,”
“3= have not decided,” and “4 = don’t know.”
Several demographic and socioeconomic variables were evaluated, including age,
whether respondent was a Hong Kong permanent resident, birthplace, religion,
educational attainment, type of housing (public rental, temporary, non-residential,
subsidized purchasing, or private permanent house), employment status, occupation,
and monthly household income. Communication between husband and wife on
childbearing decisions was controlled, and measured by two questions: “Have you had
a discussion with your husband on the number of children to have?”; “Do you and your
husband have the same opinion on the number of children you should have?”
We are interested in the impact of partnership quality, and gender inequality in
housework on childbearing intention across different parity levels. To examine a
couple’s relationship, two questions were asked: “Compared with the past 12 months,
what do you think of your current relationship with your spouse?” (responses ranged
from “1 = much better” to “5 = much worse”); “Currently, are you satisfied with your
marital life?” (responses ranged from “1 = very satisfied” to “5 = very dissatisfied”).
As the KAP survey included questions on the proportions of housework done by the
wife and the husband, gender inequality in housework was measured by taking the
difference between the two proportions—the larger the difference, the higher the
inequality in the division of housework.
A series of logistic regression models was used to examine the intention of women
to have a/another child. The first model examined the factors associated with the
intention to have a/another child among the married women overall; the second, third,
and fourth models were parity-specific regressions focusing on the intention to make
the transition from parity 0 to 1, parity 1 to 2, and parity 2 to 3, respectively. Stata 13.0
was used for the statistical analyses.
Results
Ideal number of children during the period 1992 to 2012
The average ideal parity and actual parity trends during the period 1992 to 2012 were
estimated on the basis of the 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012 KAP surveys and are
shown in Figure 1 (a). The average actual parity decreased from about 2 children in
1992 to 1.2 children in 2012, while the ideal parity dropped from 1.9 children in 1992
and seems to have stabilized at 1.6-1.7 since 2002. Notably, the gap between ideal and
actual parity has widened greatly since 2007, indicating that a certain proportion of
couples have failed to realize their fertility desire. In addition, Figure 1 (b) shows the
distribution of the ideal number of children among married women in the recent five
waves of surveys. Over the past 20 years, there has been a great decline in the desire
for a traditional two-child family. In 1992, 65% of the respondents desired two children,
but this proportion decreased to 56% in 2012. The desire for three or more children has
also shrunk: in 1992, 18% reported their ideal parity as being three children or more;
by 2012, this proportion had dropped to 9%. However, the preference for a one-child
family has been increasing: in 1992, 12% desired only one child, while in 2012, this
proportion increased to 29%. As the average ideal parity declines in Hong Kong and
other advanced Asian economies as well, many demographers believe that changes in
reproductive values, norms, and aspirations have taken place silently behind the decline
in nuptiality and TFR, indicating the arrival of “the second demographic transition” in
Asia (Atoh, Kandiah, & Ivanov, 2004; Frejka et al., 2010).
Figure 1 Distribution of ideal number of children from the KAP surveys 1992-2012
Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of women data from KAP 1992, 1997,
2002, 2007, 2012
Childbearing intentions and fertility gap: the parity-specific pattern
Our further analysis was based on the 2012 KAP survey. As the average fertility gap
was much wider in 2012 (see Figure 1 (a)), we broke down the ideal parity among
married women by the actual parity level. Table 1 shows the fertility gap and fertility
intentions at different actual parity levels. Among women at parity 0, 28.4% reported
that their ideal number of children was zero, about 71.6 % had not realized their ideal
number of children; and 49.1% expressed their intention to have a child in the future.
Among women at parity 1, 47.8% had achieved their ideal parity and about 51.5%
(=49.9% + 1.3% +0.3%) had not realized their ideal parity, but only about 19.2%% of
them intended to have a second child. Among women at parity 2, 83.4% had given birth
to children up to their ideal level, but only about 5.8% of them indicated their intention
to have a third child. In contrast to the fertility intentions of women at parity 0, those
who already had one or two children seemed to make their childbearing decisions more
prudently. This table indicates that the transition to parenthood (i.e. from no child to 1
child) may be very different from the transition to parity 2 or 3.
Table 1 Ideal parity and childbearing intention among married women at different parity levels
Actual parity
Ideal parity 0 1 2 3 4 5+
0 28.4% 0.8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1 40.4% 47.8% 5.5% 1.5% 0% 0%
2 29.4% 49.9% 83.4% 50.7% 0% 25%
3 1.8% 1.3% 10.2% 44.9% 33.3% 0%
4 0% 0.3% 0.9% 2.9% 66.7% 75%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
N 218 391 344 69 3 4
Intend to have
children (%) 49.1% 19.2% 5.8% 1.5% / /
Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012
Parity-specific analysis of factors influencing childbearing intentions
To investigate the factors influencing married women’s fertility intentions at different
parity levels, we ran a multigroup regression analysis. Table 2 gives the general profile
of the married women and all of the variables included in our analysis except for two
continuous variables, namely wife’s age and division of housework. Overall, about 65%
of the women had no intention of having another child.
Table 2 Descriptive statistics of variables and social demographic profile of the women
in the analysis
Frequency Percent (%)
Intention to have a/another child
Have intention 204 19.8
Not sure 159 15.5
Do not have intention 666 64.7
Ideal number of children
0 65 6.3
1 295 28.7
2 582 56.6
3 76 7.5
4+ 11 1.1
Wife is a HK permanent resident
Yes 918 89.2
No 111 10.8
Wife’s education level
Lower secondary or below 258 25.1
Upper secondary 623 60.5
Postsecondary 148 14.4
Wife’s working status
Not working 350 34.0
Part-time job 103 10.0
Full-time job 576 56.0
Monthly household income
(HKD)
$14,999 or less 230 22.4
$15,000-$24,999 287 27.9
$25,000-39,999 301 29.3
$40,000 or above 211 20.5
Discussion with Husband on No.
of children
No 356 34.6
Yes, but did not agree 77 7.5
Yes and agreed 596 57.9
Marital life satisfaction
Average or below 223 21.7
Satisfied 639 62.1
Very Satisfied 167 16.2
Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012
Our multigroup regression analysis revealed that the factors of childbearing
intention vary considerably across women at different actual parity levels. In Table 3,
Model 1 shows the results for all married women regardless of their actual parity level.
The factors which are positively associated with childbearing intention include high
monthly household income, women whose ideal number of children is two, having
discussions with husband on the childbearing issue and reaching an agreement, and a
high level of marital life satisfaction. Factors which are negatively associated with
childbearing intention include wife’s age, the wife being a Hong Kong permanent
resident, and the ideal number of children being zero.
Models 2, 3, and 4 identified factors that are associated with the fertility intentions
of women at parity 0, parity 1, and parity 2. More importantly, they also unveiled (a)
some factors which seem to influence the general childbearing intention (shown in
Model 1) but are actually only associated with the intention of women at different parity
levels and (b) factors which seem to be unrelated with the general childbearing intention
but actually have significant associations with the intention of women at a certain parity
level. Compared with Model 1, all the other models had an improvement in R2,
especially Model 2 and Model 3, indicating that the parity-specific regressions
explained the variability of fertility intentions better.
Model 2 shows that for women at parity 0, factors which are negatively related to
childbearing intentions include wife’s age, the wife being a Hong Kong permanent
resident, and the ideal number of children being zero, whereas higher household income,
the ideal number of children being two, good communication with husband on the
number of children to have, and a high level of marital life satisfaction have significant
positive associations with the fertility intentions of women at parity 0.
Model 3 shows that only wife’s age and wife’s working status (having a part-time
job) are negatively related with intention to have a second child, whereas the ideal parity
being two or three is positively associated with the intention. What is more interesting
is that in this model, factors such as household income, communication with husband,
and marital life satisfaction now have no significant association with the intention to
have a second child, but wife’s working status, especially being a part-time employee,
now has a significant negative association with the intention of women at parity 1.
Model 4 shows another series of factors associated with the childbearing intentions
of women at parity 2. Wives having a full-time job and gender inequality in the division
of housework, both of which were insignificant in shaping the fertility intentions of
women at parity 0 and parity 1, in fact do play a significant role in the decision to have
a third child. Meanwhile, the ideal parity has now become insignificant.
As seen from the four models, women’s age is a crucial factor influencing fertility
intentions across all parity levels. Also, the factors identified in Model 1 which may
influence general fertility intentions, such as being a Hong Kong permanent resident,
household income, discussion with husband, and marital life satisfaction, are in fact
only significantly associated with the intention to have a first child.
Table 3 Coefficients of logistic regressions of childbearing intention of women at
different parity levels
Model (1) Model (2) Model (3) Model (4)
Childbearing
intention
Childbearing
intention
Childbearing
intention
Childbearing
intention
for all parities (parity 0→1) (parity 1→2) (parity 2→3)
Wife’s age -0.194*** -0.0865** -0.208*** -0.127***
Wife being HKPRa
No Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.
Yes -0.733** -2.965*** -0.505 0.189
Wife’s education level
Low (Lower secondary or below) Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.
Middle -0.0315 0.272 0.117 -0.939
High (postsecondary) 0.215 0.156 0.362 -1.841
Wife’s working status
Not working Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.
Part-time job -0.437 -1.377 -1.233* -0.0914
Full-time job 0.203 0.268 -0.291 -1.248*
Monthly household income $14,999 or less Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.
$15,000-$24,999 0.217 1.662* -0.476 0.0989
$25,000-39,999 0.499 2.296** -0.482 -0.0547
$40,000 or above 0.642* 2.039** -0.531 1.222
Ideal No. of children
1 child Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.
No children -3.399*** -5.013***
2 children 0.682*** 1.279*** 3.158*** -0.170
3 or more children 0.608 -0.143 5.532*** 1.895
Communication with husband
No discussion with husband Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.
Discussion but no agreement 0.321 0.570 0.497 -0.796
Discussion and agreement 0.352* 1.970*** 0.489 0.354
Gender inequality in housework -0.000395 0.00682 0.00775 -0.0222***
Marital life satisfaction
Average or below Ref. Ref. Ref. Ref.
Satisfied 0.478* 1.301** 0.578 -0.973
Very satisfied 0.678** 1.598** -0.0978 0.386
Constant 4.723*** 1.252 3.807*** 3.341
Observations 1,029 218 391 344
Pseudo R2 0.27 0.48 0.39 0.28
Notes: a HKPR is the abbreviation for Hong Kong permanent resident
Level of significance: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Sources: Our calculation is based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012.
Motivations for childbearing and difficulties in childrearing
Among those who intended to have a/another child, we further investigated the
motivation behind their intention. Table 4 compares the reasons of the wives and the
husbands for having a/another child across the actual parity levels. For wives who were
at parity 0 and had the intention to have the first child, the top three reasons were (1) “I
like children” (36.5%), (2) “Children can bring joy to daily life” (16.8%), and (3)
“Children are the fruit of our love” (11.6%). The top three reasons among the husbands
were (1) “I like children” (30.8%), (2) “To carry on the family line” (16.5%), and (3)
“Children are the fruit of our love” (12.1%). For women who were at parity 1 or 2 and
had the intention to have another child, the most cited reasons by both the wives and
the husbands were “I like children,” “To let the children have a sibling,” “To carry on
the family line,” and “Like to have a big family.”
These results indicate that the reasons for childbearing can be differentiated
between wives and husbands and across actual parity levels. The reason “To carry on
the family line” was one of the top three reasons among husbands across all actual
parity levels; in contrast, only the wives who were at parity 2 and intended to have a
third child cited it as a main reason. “Children are the fruit of our love” was one of the
top reasons only among couples at parity 0 while not found among the top reasons given
by couples at other parity levels. This actually supports the finding in Model 2 that a
high level of marital life satisfaction is positively associated with the intention to have
the first child. Moreover, among couples at all parity levels, one common main reason
given for having children was “I like children.” If both the wife and the husband like
children, they seem to be more likely to have more children.
We also identified the potential major barriers and difficulties in childrearing
perceived by couples who intended to have a/another child. Removing these barriers
and difficulties could help these couples transfer their childbearing intention into actual
childbearing behaviour. Table 5 shows the major difficulties in raising children for the
wives and husbands across different parity levels. Across all parity levels, the wives
consistently cited three major concerns, namely increased economic burden, big
responsibility, and children are rebellious and difficult to teach nowadays; and the
husbands reported two common concerns, namely increased economic burden and big
responsibility. The economic concern among married couples can be understood, as in
Hong Kong the living costs and housing prices are extremely high, and the cost of
raising one child from birth to college graduation is estimated up to HK$ 5,500,000
(about US$ 700,000) (Chan, 2014). Due to the high pressure in Hong Kong’s education
system and the rising demand for “the quality of children”, the responsibility of raising
children has never been greater. Notably, there are some interesting differences between
wives and husbands. Difficulty in communicating with children, either “no time” or
“don’t know how,” was one of the top concerns among the husbands across different
parity levels. For couples at parity 1 or parity 2, husbands having no time to
communicate with their children indicates that the burden of childcare may fall on the
shoulders of wives. Thus, the unequal division of housework and childcare is likely to
depress wives’ intention to have another child.
Table 4 Wives’ and husbands’ reasons for having children by actual parity level
Actual
Parity Wives’ reasons Husbands’ reasons
0
I like children 36.5% I like children 30.8%
Children can bring joy to daily life 16.8% To carry on the family line 16.5%
Children are the fruit of our love 13.1% Children are the fruit of our love 12.1%
1
I like children 33.3% To let the children have a sibling 28.4%
To let the children have a sibling 32.0% I like children 25.4%
Like to have a big family 6.7% To carry on the family line 13.4%
2
I like children 75.0% I like children 40.0%
Like to have a big family 10.0% To carry on the family line 20.0%
To carry on the family line 5.0% To let the children have a sibling 13.3%
Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012
Table 5 Top three major difficulties in raising children perceived by couples at different parities
Actual
parity Wives’ difficulties Husbands’ difficulties
0
Increased economic burden 26.2% Big responsibility 25.2%
Big responsibility 24.8% Increased economic burden 25.2%
Children are rebellious and difficult
to teach nowadays 9.2%
Don’t know how to
communicate with children 10.1%
1
Big responsibility 28.4% Increased economic burden 29.7%
Increased economic burden 23.8% Big responsibility 23.8%
Children are rebellious and difficult
to teach nowadays 10.5%
No time to communicate with
children 10.0%
2
Increased economic burden 29.1% Increased economic burden 30.5%
Big responsibility 21.8% Big responsibility 19.5%
Children are rebellious and difficult
to teach nowadays 13.7%
No time to communicate with
children 11.3%
Sources: Self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012
Discussion and conclusion
Our study has investigated childbearing intentions among Hong Kong married women
and their spouses, and identified the factors which may influence their intentions. We
further revealed the motivations behind their intention to have a/another child, and the
difficulties perceived by couples in raising children.
The average ideal parity has decreased from 2 children in 1992 to 1.7 children in
2012. Comparison of the profiles of ideal parity over the period 1992 to 2012 reveals a
decline in the desire for a two-child family and an increased preference for a one-child
family. Based on the sample of couple data for husbands and wives, we identified that
the unrealized gap between ideal and actual parity is largest in women at parity 0;
however, these women also have a greater intention to have a child in the future,
indicating that the gap may be narrowed, though may not be filled ultimately. For
women at parity 1, about 47.8% had realized their ideal number of children and 51.5%
had an actual parity smaller than their ideal parity, but only about 19.2% expressed their
intention to have a second child. For women at parity 2, about 83% had children up to
their ideal level and only about 6% intended to have a third child. The proportion of
women with the intention to have a second or third child is relatively small. This
indicates that some women who have not achieved their ideal parity tend to make a
compromise and forego further childbearing. Such phenomenon of ‘stopping at parity
1’ is prevailing not only in Hong Kong but also in other neighbouring countries (Basten
& Verropoulou, 2015).
Transition to parity 1 is believed to be very different from transition to parity 2 or
3, and the current actual parity has a significant effect on an individual’s fertility
intentions (Morgan, 1982; Stein, Willen, & Pavetic, 2014). Thus, a parity-specific
group comparison is very important to understand the factors influencing fertility
intentions at the individual level. The comparison results show that for women at parity
0, marital life satisfaction, monthly household income, the ideal parity, and good
communication with husband on childbearing decisions are significantly associated
with their intention to have a first child. Our study adds Hong Kong evidence to the
existing literature that economic and partnership instability is associated with delayed
parenthood. With globalization and education expansion, competition in the labour
market has become fiercer, thus increasing economic insecurity at the individual level;
as a result, in order to establish a career, individuals are delaying marriage and
parenthood (Bernardi, Klärner, & Von der Lippe, 2008; Caldwell & Schindlmayr, 2003;
D.-S. Kim, 2009). In Asia, where births outside marriage are still not socially acceptable,
couples in an unstable marriage may choose to delay the transition to parenthood.
Therefore, it seems that the rising divorce rate, increasing spinsterhood, and ultra-low
fertility in Hong Kong are all interrelated. Furthermore, communication and agreement
on a fertility plan between husbands and wives is an important predictor of the transition
to parenthood in both western and eastern countries (Kemkes-Grottenthaler, 2003;
Miller & Pasta, 1995; Thomson, 1997).
For women at parity 1, wife’s working status, especially having a part-time job,
and the ideal parity are associated with their intention to have a second child. Women
with one child who have a part-time job are less likely to have a second child. The
respondents in this case usually have relatively poor economic conditions. Due to the
heavy economic burden involved in raising children, women may have to take on some
part-time jobs to contribute to the family income, and thus they often struggle to find a
balance between family and work. For women at parity 2, wife’s working status,
especially having a full-time job, and gender inequality in the division of housework
are significantly associated with their intention to have a third child. This indicates that
the difficulty in balancing a full-time job and housework could be the barrier to
progression to parity 3 or higher. There is much room for improvement in creating a
family-friendly working environment for working women in Hong Kong. Long
working hours seem to be the norm rather than the exception and are a great
discouragement to family formation, childrearing, and family wellbeing.
Motivation to have children differs among parity-specific groups. For both
husbands and wives, a healthy and happy marriage may encourage them to have their
first child. The heavy economic burden involved in raising children is a big barrier,
especially to the transition from one child to two children. The experience in rearing
the first child has an important influence on the decision whether to have another one
or not. Husbands across all parity levels have some difficulty in communicating with
children, which to some extent may increase the childcare burden of wives, especially
for mothers with two children and a full-time job. Some parental education and training
in raising children might be helpful to improving communication within the family. The
factors, motivations, and barriers to childbearing and childrearing, which are relevant
to making pronatalist policies for Hong Kong married couples, vary across parity levels.
As far as fertility aspiration is concerned, having only one child seems to have
become the norm among married women, despite the traditional desire for a two-child
family. At present, the prevalence of one-child families is “actually even more
characteristic of East Asian countries than of China” (G. Jones, 2013). Delayed
marriage resulting in limited childbearing time, is indeed an important factor
contributing to the unfulfilled fertility gap. At the same time, expensive housing prices,
long working hours, and unstable working conditions have also been shown to be
related to delayed marriage in Hong Kong. It has been suggested that for countries in
the low fertility trap, “tempo policies” designed to slow down the trend toward delaying
marriage and lower-order births should be included in pronatalist policies (Lutz &
Skirbekk, 2005). Unless the Hong Kong Government is willing to provide support for
unmarried young people who aspire to get married, any effort to encourage Hong Kong
women to have three children seems to be a mission impossible; even if they like
children, it would be too late for them to realize their ideal parity. In order to reduce the
gap between actual and ideal parity, married couples need to plan ahead and plan well,
as the age of marriage is always a crucial factor in determining the parity level of
women.
To deal with such ultra-low fertility in Hong Kong and other high-income
economies, Gavin Jones has suggested that improving the gender inequality within
households and the family-unfriendly working environment, as well as less single-
minded attention to children’s education performance, would help to raise fertility
levels (G. W. Jones, 2012). In fact, our empirical study lends support to his suggestions.
For the decades to come, Hong Kong is very likely to become a low fertility society
with a rapidly ageing population and a shrinking workforce. Hence, it is important to
come up with innovative methods by which Hong Kong as a whole society can cope
with these demographic challenges. Under ultra-low fertility conditions, whether or not
to have children is not simply an individual decision anymore: rather, a societal
response is in order. To make Hong Kong a more children- or family- friendly society,
this response should include the Government and the business sector.
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