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A STUDY INTO THE SIZE OF THE WORLD’S INTELLIGENCE
INDUSTRY
CHRISTIAN HIPPNER
A Thesis
Submitted to the Faculty of Mercyhurst College
In Partial Fulfillment of the of the Requirements for
The Degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE
INAPPLIED INTELLIGENCE
DEPARTMENT OF INTELLIGENCE STUDIESMERCYHURST COLLEGE
ERIE, PENNSYLVANIAOCTOBER 2009
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DEPARTMENT OF INTELLIGENCE STUDIESMERCYHURST COLLEGE
ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA
A STUDY INTO THE SIZE OF THE WORLD’S INTELLIGENCE INDUSTRY
A ThesisSubmitted to the Faculty of Mercyhurst College
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCEIN
APPLIED INTELLIGENCE
Submitted By
Christian Hippner
Certificate of Approval:
___________________________ Kristan J. WheatonAssociate Professor Department of Intelligence Studies
___________________________ James G. BreckenridgeChair/Assistant Professor Department of Intelligence Studies
___________________________ Phillip J. BelfioreVice PresidentOffice of Academic Affairs
October 2009
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Copyright © 2009 by Christian Hippner All rights reserved.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank my primary reader, Kristan Wheaton, for his creativity, found
throughout this product. I would also like to thank Carl Hippner for his assistance in
interpretation. Finally, I would like to acknowledge Cole Davis for his technical
assistance and motivation, despite having a two o’clock meeting.
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ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS
A Study into the Size of the World’s Intelligence Industry
By
Christian Hippner
Master of Science in Applied Intelligence
Mercyhurst College, 2009
Professor Kristan J. Wheaton, Chair
[This thesis determines the approximate size of the world’s intelligence industry in
quantitative terms. It reviews existing literature which describes, in qualitative terms,
various themes found about intelligence agencies around the world. The thesis provides a
quantitative method to estimate unknown intelligence spending and personnel. The study
concludes that the world’s intelligence industry spends approximately 106 billion United
States Dollars, and employs about one million people. Furthermore, the hypothesized
direct correlation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and intelligence spending may
exist, but the research does not strongly support the assertion. It is apparent that GDP is a
factor when it comes to intelligence spending, but it does not seem to be the primary
component.]
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TABLE OF CONTENTSPage
COPYRIGHT PAGE ........................................................................................................ iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................. iv
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................v
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. vi
LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... viii
LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... ix
CHAPTER
1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1
2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................. 4
Information Gap ........................................................................................ 4Comparative Studies in Intelligence ......................................................... 7Self-Reporting Countries ......................................................................... 14Systematic Studies of Intelligence .......................................................... 16
3 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................... 21
Data Collection ........................................................................................ 22Collection from Internet Sources ................................................. 23Collection from Other Sources ................................................... 27Other Relevant Information Collection ...................................... 28
Establishing Webpage Credibility .......................................................... 28Process for Estimating Unknown Spending ........................................... 29Process for Estimating Unknown Personnel ........................................... 30Standardizing Spending Units ................................................................. 31Standardizing Personnel Definitions ....................................................... 32
4 RESULTS ........................................................................................................ 33The Totals: Spending ............................................................................... 33The Totals: Personnel ............................................................................. 40Other Extracted Results .......................................................................... 46Summary of Results ................................................................................ 50
5 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................... 53
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 63
APPENDICES ................................................................................................................ 75
Appendix A: Websites You Can Trust ............................................................... 76
Appendix B: Intelligence Spending Sorted Highest to Lowest ........................... 77Appendix C: Data for Individual Countries......................................................... 80
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 4.1 Affect of US on Estimating 39
Table 5.1 List of Journals, Newsletters, and Other 56Relevant Database Productions
Table 5.2 Outcome of Assuming Intelligence Spending 59and GDP is Linear or Exponential
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page
Figure 4.1 Total World Intelligence Spending 33
Figure 4.2 Top Ten Percent Intelligence Spending 34
Figure 4.3 Intelligence Spending Sorted Largest to Smallest 37
Figure 4.4 Total Intelligence Employment 40
Figure 4.5 Geographic Position of Top Intelligence Employers 42
Figure 4.6 Top 21 Intelligence Employers 42
Figure 4.7 Comparing Intelligence Spending Per Person 43
Figure 4.8 Bottom 90 Percent Employment vs. 44Top Ten Percent Employment
Figure 4.9 Countries with Top Spending and Employment 45
Figure 4.10 Histogram of Intelligence Employment 45
Figure 4.11 Histogram of Source Credibility 50
Figure 5.1 Affect of a Linear Relationship Assumption on 61Intelligence Spending (US Not Included)
Figure 5.2 Countries with Known Intelligence Spending with 62Trend Lines (US Not Included)
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1
INTRODUCTION
This thesis is about intelligence in national security. Since the Treaty of
Westphalia every nation-state has had concerns about its national security, however
defined. The role of intelligence is one that supports policymakers, military
commanders, and nation as a whole. Describing the actual process of intelligence is the
subject of many books, reports, and theoreticians. Although the traditional view of
intelligence encapsulates its activities as a cylindrical process, new conceptual models
tend to structure it around a collaborative targeted process. Regardless of how one wantsviews what is intelligence, this thesis is about those engaged in it as a whole.
Intelligence as field of employment dates back to biblical days, when Moses sent
12 men to the land of Canaan in order to,
See what the land is like: whether the people who dell in it are strong or weak, few or many; whether the land they dwell in is good or bad;whether the cities they inhabit are like camps or strongholds; whether theland is rich or poor; and whether there are forests there or not. 1
Moses is a decision maker who wants to know everything that may be relevant, as his
tasking implies. He asks for reports on the economic, military, and social situation of
Canaan. While this passage is infamous in some intelligence communities, Sun-Tzu’s
writings may resonate in others. With the relatively few exceptions, the subject of how to
finance the collection of intelligence is generally missing. Collection systems, or in
Moses’ case human operators, require adequate funding to be successful. It is
1 Numbers 13:18-20 (New King James Version).
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unimaginable that Moses sent 12 men “who were heads of the children of Israel” without
food or other provisions.2 Yet discussion regarding this subject is absent.
If intelligence requires funding, like the rest of the national security
establishment, then every nation must allocate a budget. Various studies aiming to
estimate national defense spending already exist. Some countries issue so-called white
papers, while research institutions, such as the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI) and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), have
elaborate methodologies to determine the spending of countries that do not self-report.
While each entity has a particular estimate regarding the world’s spending on defense,none have ventured into a more nuanced subset of national security – intelligence.
This thesis is a study to determine the approximate size of the world’s national
intelligence industry. It uses two separate indicators to determine size. The first
indicator is intelligence spending by individual nations. The second indicator of size is
intelligence personnel under employment by individual nations. For the purposes of this
study, the components of the intelligence industry are, broadly speaking, services or
agencies that are direct divisions of a recognized government.
Understanding the size of the world's intelligence industry is significant for three
reasons. First, there is no existing study with the purpose of discovering the approximate
size of the global intelligence industry. Second, understanding its size can be useful for
allocating resources by US intelligence agencies. Third, knowing the size of the world's
intelligence industry would be helpful to educational institutions for their own planning.
As the intelligence studies field grows, knowing the relative level of demand for
professionals in this market will likely support these institutions in recruiting practices.
2 Numbers 13:3 (New King James Version).
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To that end, a comprehensive and quantitative study is necessary. Although there are
numerous smaller studies that focus on certain regions or nations, they all fit into the
realm of qualitative discussions. While they add to the body of literature for this field,
they fall short of exploring the “human resources” aspect. The study could also assist in
training institutions’ recruitment by indicating the job market that exists for intelligence
professionals.
Determining the size of the world’s intelligence industry is also relevant for
practitioners. A study of this nature would give a national intelligence community
another method to benchmark their performance, as well as assist in future planning.Knowing the relative size of other nations’ capabilities can result in more efficient
resource allocation or support new hiring practices.
There are certain limitations to this study. First, it does not intend to study the
organizational structure of an intelligence community of a given country. It simply wants
to determine an amount spent by that community. Second, governments are not always
willing to publish such data and if they do, it may be intentionally inaccurate. This study
can and will make the most accurate and conservative estimates as possible. A person
can delve deep into government publications and other primary data for years in an
attempt to determine a single precise answer. This is unnecessary due to the scale of the
study – the individual numbers are more likely in the hundreds of millions of dollars,
meaning that the impact of relatively few dollars is negligible. Third, for many countries
there is no existing information at all. This study estimates these figures using a process
described in Chapter 3, and then presents its findings in Chapter 4.
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LITERATURE REVIEW
There are a limited number of comprehensive studies into the world’s different
intelligence systems and agencies. Most studies on the topic of national intelligence
communities are qualitative in nature. They explore a variety of intelligence related
topics, such as structure and oversight, but few actually engage in describing their subject
in quantitative terms. The following literature review has four sections. The first section
briefly discusses why there are few systematic studies describing intelligence in
quantitative terms. The second section discusses the different comparative studies of intelligence systems. The third section examines countries with self-reported data, their
relevance, and their drawbacks. The fourth and final section looks at the existing
attempts to systematically document different intelligence communities.
Information Gap
There are no comprehensive studies analyzing the total spending of the world’s
different intelligence organizations, or are there studies indicating their accumulated size.
One argument against the systematic study of intelligence is that the systems in different
countries are not comparable. In the words of author Michael Warner, “both inside and
outside scholars have sought to compare and contrast intelligence disciplines and
organizations across multiple national experiences and time periods. Unfortunately, this
is not yet possible to do in a systematic manner”.3 This mindset is perhaps the primary
reason for the lack of research into these matters. However, arguing that a transnational
quantitative comparison is not possible hinges on faulty assumptions.
3 Michael Warner, “Sources and Methods for the Study of Intelligence,” in Handbook of IntelligenceStudies, ed. Lock K. Johnson (London and New York: Routledge, 2007), 25.
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The argument assumes that the functions, roles, and missions of intelligence
organizations are inconsistent in international situations and cannot be categorized.
Notable intelligence scholar Loch K. Johnson argues against this point, saying that there
are basic common features found in all national intelligence apparatuses. According to
Johnson, there are three basic activities of these governmental entities – collection and
analysis, covert action, and counterintelligence.4 He argues that these three activities are
universally found in all national intelligence systems, regardless of the security
environment surrounding the country. This point seems to echo in the writings of Marina
Caprini, a theoretician on security-sector reform, who says that “within government,intelligence has come to be thought of as comprising four main activities: collection,
analysis and estimates, counterintelligence and covert action”.5 At the heart of the three
activities, Johnson argues, is national wealth – Gross Domestic Product (GDP).6 Johnson
would likely argue that the security situation around a nation impacts intelligence
spending less than its national wealth. Of wealthy nations, he says,
Because of the breadth of their concerns, not even expenditures in therange of $35 billion a year (the widely reported figure for U.S. intelligencein 2002-2003) can offer transparency for the entire globe – especiallywhen adversaries choose to conceal their schemes and weapons systems indeep underground caverns, with camouflage, or by other methods of stealth to avoid the prying lens of satellite cameras orbiting above them.In contrast, the intelligence objectives of smaller nations are much morelimited, say, to a single region or even a solitary enemy. Some may viewthis paradox as self-evident, but comparisons of the intelligence systemsof different countries are often made without taking into account thedifferences in their funding abilities and targeting needs.7
4 Loch Johnson, “Bricks and Mortar for a Theory of Intelligence,” Comparative Strategy. 22, no. 1 (2003):1.5 Marina Caparini, “Controlling and Overseeing Intelligence Services in Democratic States,” in DemocraticControl of Intelligence Services: Containing Rogue Elephant , ed. Hans Born and Marina Caparini(England: Ashgate, 2007), 5.6 Loch Johnson, “Bricks and mortar for a Theory of Intelligence,” Comparative Strategy 22, no. 1 (2003):22-23.7 Ibid, 3.
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Outside of national wealth, Johnson argues that other attributes are necessary for
successfully implementing these activities, such as focused targeting, all-source
synergism, and strong communication.
8
These activities are important, but they are aresult of three basic features, collection and analysis, covert action, and
counterintelligence.
The ultimate goal of these activities is to reduce the level uncertainty for the
decision-maker. The end goal for national intelligence agencies is also inherently
different from other governmental entities with similar features. For instance, law
enforcement bodies often engage in Johnson’s three basic actives. They collect and
analyze crime statistics in order to identify problems and determine the best preventative
measures.9 They engage in undercover operations, as well as establish security measures
to prevent the dissemination of sensitive information. In short, many law enforcement
agencies engage in intelligence. However, the purpose of having a law enforcement
agency is to enforce laws, while its end goal is to facilitate crime and problem
reduction.10
Nevertheless, the primary attribute for the successful implementation of Johnson’s
activities is national wealth, suggesting that only wealthy nations have large, integrated,
intelligence systems. Yet Johnson is quick to admit that there are some exceptions to his
8 Ibid.9 Veronica Coleman and others, "Using Knowledge and Teamwork to Reduce Crime," National Institute of
Justice Journal 241, (1999): 18-20, http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/jr000241d.pdf .10 Jerry H. Ratcliffe, "Intelligence-led policing: Anticipating Risk and Influencing Action," in press 2009,3, http://jratcliffe.net/papers/Ratcliffe%20(draft)%20ILP-Anticipating%20risk%20and%20influencing%20action.pdf .
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theory.11 He points to Russia as an example, saying while it may maintain a large
intelligence service, it is not an affluent nation.12
Johnson’s conceptual framework seems to suggest an observable correlation
exists between a nation’s wealth and the size of its intelligence community. If this is true,
further research is necessary to test Johnson’s assertion that national wealth, GDP,
determines the limits of intelligence activity. While most authors tend to focus
intelligence issues such as oversight, democratic control, and the significance of 9/11,
Johnson’s assertion is measurable in quantitative terms. His assertion is not only
quantitative but free from cultural biases. The next section reviews existing comparativestudies of intelligence, which are predominately qualitative in nature.
Comparative Studies in Intelligence
There are several ways existing comparative studies describe different
intelligence systems. The first section here describes intelligence in the context of the
Cold War, the second section describes intelligence through the lens of the Civil-Military
Relations (CMR) model, and the third section describes intelligence from the non-
western perspective. Common themes exist throughout all three sections, for instance, all
of the authors use a case-study format to compare intelligence systems. Each case-study
uses narratives and qualitative information to describe intelligence communities – another
theme in all three sections – and also tend to focus on research at the national level.
There are several reasons to conduct comparative studies of intelligence communities.
According to Peter Gill, conducting comparative studies allows one to “find out about
11 Loch Johnson, “Bricks and mortar for a Theory of Intelligence,” Comparative Strategy 22, no. 1 (2003):15.12 Ibid.
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then moving to its most recent structure.18 He describes the relationship between the
Soviet Union and the other communist nations as unequal, where the smaller nations tend
to aid the Soviets.19 Laqueur’s historical approach is different than his methods used to
compare the various open societies. The dichotomy in approaches makes it difficult to
have a transnational comparison. One example is his description of the Soviet Union’s
intelligence structure – he focuses more on the weaknesses in their operations, rather than
comparing different agencies to one another.20 While he explains in some length about
the relationship between intelligence producers and consumers in open societies, he
glazes over the subject when writing about the Soviet system. Instead, his focus remainsmore on its historical development and current defects.21
Other comparative studies use the Civil-Military Relations (CMR) model to
compare intelligence communities. Scholar Robert Jervis says the role of intelligence is
the “missing dimension” in international relations and advocates using the CMR model. 22
There are some interesting parallels between CMR studies and other studies analyzing
relations between civilian authorities and intelligence services. According to Jervis, the
general view of intelligence services and militaries is that they “should be strong,
efficient, and professionalized, but on the other hand they should not set their own goals
and they must respond to civilian authority…We want the military and intelligence to be
18 Ibid, 233-248.19 Ibid, 249-250.20 Ibid, 248-252.21
There are a number of writings on the defects of the Soviet intelligence apparatus and Laqueur’sdiscussion is not entirely out of context. A more recent writing on this subject comes from MichaelHerman in Intelligence Services in the Information Age. Herman discusses the role of the intelligenceservices in under Stalin and how their assessments were intentionally subjective. This continued after Stalin and exemplifies one difference between western intelligence and non-western intelligence. SeeMichael Herman, Intelligence Services in the Information Age (Portland, Oregon: Frank Cass Publishers,2001), 16-19.22 Robert Jervis, “Intelligence, Civil-Intelligence Relations, and Democracy,” in Reforming Intelligence:Obstacles to Democratic Control and Effectiveness, ed. Thomas Bruneau and Steven Boraz (Austin, Texas:University of Texas Press, 2007), xix.
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under civilian control but also to resist illegitimate orders”.23 Studies using the CMR
analogy generally fall into two broad categories, intelligence in modern democracies and
intelligence in emerging democracies. The overall focus in each category is how to
increase democratic civilian control over the intelligence organization of a given
country.24
Democratic civilian control is possible by giving legal oversight authority to the
executive, legislative, or judicial branches of government. According to authors Steven
Boraz and Thomas Bruneau, a favorite oversight mechanisms used by governmental
bodies is budgetary review.
25
They argue that in modern democracies, executive bodiesexercise budgetary control through advisory departments, such as the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB).26 However, they are clear that budgetary review is not
the only oversight tool at the disposal of the executive bodies. Boraz and Bruneau both
agree that legislative bodies are able to control intelligence activities through budgetary
control and fund allocation.27 Legislative bodies accomplish budgetary oversight by
establishing oversight and appropriations committees.28 The CMR model analyzes
intelligence spending as a way to keep these organizations under the control of elected
officials, and ultimately to learn about the effective practices of well-performing nations.
However, these comparative case studies tend to introduce a certain level of
Western-bias into their methods. This creates two problems. The first is whether or not a
nation is measurably democratic. For countries conceptualized as undemocratic, the
23 Ibid, xiii.24 Steven Boraz and Thomas Bruneau, “Best Practices: Balancing Democracy and Effectiveness,” in
Reforming Intelligence: Obstacles to Democratic Control and Effectiveness, ed. Thomas Bruneau andSteven Boraz (Austin, Texas: University of Texas Press, 2007), 331.25 Ibid, 14.26 Ibid, 3027 Ibid, 15.28 Ibid, 45.
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national intelligence system is automatically exempt from study. If the goal is to observe
how various democratic nations maintain or create civilian control over their intelligence
services, countries such as China or Burma, which are generally seen as undemocratic,
cannot be studied for comparison. The likely underpinning argument for this point-of-
view is that civilian control is desirable.
The second problem addresses the subjectivity of what is desirable. Civilian
control is desirable for whom? Iran has a standardized election process, yet would the
West prefer to deal with the Supreme Council or the former Shah? If the ultimate
purpose of using the CMR model to study national intelligence systems is to learn how toincrease civilian control, then it is preferable to study Iran under the Supreme Council.
Using CMR as model creates the assumption that more civilian control is a good thing
(the researcher is inclined to agree). However, the Western bias that enters into these
studies results in inappropriate comparisons. These comparisons may include budgetary
reviews to satisfy the old adage “follow the money” but not to study transnational
spending patterns.
A third body of comparative literature might counter cultural bias, as it attempts
to gather knowledge about non-western intelligence systems. This literature comes from
native contributors and it provides descriptions of the strategic intelligence environment
of a non-Western country.29 According to one author, the primary purpose for this
accumulated research is to,
Provide some counterweight to the liberal democratic domination of theliterature, especially Anglo-American. Specifically…it is important todescribe and analyze a wider range and variety of national intelligencesystems in order to counter any simplistic assumptions that Anglo-
29 Peter Gill, introduction to the PSI Handbook of Global Security and Intelligence: National Approaches,vol. 1, ed. Stuart Farson et al (London and Connecticut: Praeger Security International, 2008), 1.
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American models provide a reliable guide to present or, necessarily, futurearrangements elsewhere.30
As the quote suggests, studying other intelligence systems can allow for greater self-
inspection, may result in empirical material suitable for comparison, and can counter the biases built into the CMR model.31 However, these studies are generally inconsistent in
the intelligence attributes they analyze. Some of these studies describe the internal
structure of an intelligence system, while others discuss issues relating to civilian
oversight. In short, Laqueur’s problems manifest themselves once again, only now it is
in a multi-polar world.
Some of these studies are subsections of defense sector reviews – likely a result of
their publishing venues. For instance, Anthony Cordesman and Khalid Al-Rodhan write
about the military forces of nation-states in the Persian Gulf.32 Their study reviews nine
countries, each of which includes a section titled “Paramilitary, Security, Police, and
Intelligence Forces”.33 These sections include a brief biographical background along
with limited quantitative data. Yet, many of these defense sector reviews tend to
emphasize the military aspect over the intelligence component. An example of a robust
defense review is The Middle East Military Balance: 2000-2001, edited by Shai Feldman
and Yiftah Shapir. The review gives a weapons inventory for twenty-one Middle East
countries.34 The authors provide general information about individual economic and
30
Ibid.31 This point is articulated by Peter Gill, although he does indicate what “material” can produce empiricaldata. See Peter Gill, “Knowing the Self, Knowing the Other: The Comparative Analysis of SecurityIntelligence,” in Handbook of Intelligence Studies, ed. Lock K. Johnson (London and New York:Routledge, 2007), 83.32 See Anthony Cordesman and Khalid Al-Rodhan, Gulf Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars(Connecticut: Praeger Security International, 2007).33 Ibid.34 Shai Feldman and Yiftah Shapir, eds., The Middle East Military Balance: 2000-2001 (Massachusetts:MIT Press, 2001).
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arms procurement programs for each country – only after which do they give an order-of-
battle for each military branch. Exploring countries in such a comprehensive manner
allows the authors to create international benchmarks and compare levels of military
prowess. Studies this detailed are not present in the current body of comparative studies
of intelligence.
Another example of a defense sector review with a subsection on intelligence is
Jane’s Information Group. Its Sentinel Country Risk Assessment Library attempts to
provide a comprehensive list of entities related to every nation’s security apparatus. It is
a very valuable resource for those looking to obtain quick and general information aboutthe security situation in a country. For many nations, the library is also successful in
identifying their various intelligence agencies. While the information most pertinent to
this study comes from Jane’s Sentinel Country Risk Assessment Library, the majority of
the company’s intelligence related information is in Jane’s Intelligence Review and
Intelligence Weekly – albeit in qualitative form.
While some comparative studies discuss the interaction within the described
national intelligence system, others provide a detailed account of the weapon systems in
possession of each country. Each provides a response in a narrative format. As with all
comparative studies, there is a certain measure of variance between each observed
country. According to Peter Gill, the variance in national approaches reflects the
conditions of the individual nation itself.35 In western democracies, writers tend to
describe intelligence as something in need of reform, whereas in non-western nations,
35 Peter Gill, introduction to the PSI Handbook of Global Security and Intelligence: National Approaches,vol. 1, ed. Stuart Farson et al. (London and Connecticut: Praeger Security International, 2008), 15.
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they are entities to support the ruling party.36 Nevertheless, these contributors add to the
comparative body of intelligence studies, although, they are a reflection of the qualitative
approach.
Self-Reporting Countries
One body of literature relative to this thesis consists of countries opting to publish
information about their individual intelligence organizations and programs. Although
uncommon in most of the world, self-reporting can provide a wealth of information.
Self-reporting countries can provide unique views of those within the intelligenceestablishment, as well as insight on the organization’s operations or how they interact
with top decision-makers. It gives other qualitative information about their internal
arrangements, decision-making process, and other data that is also useful for comparative
research.
Specifically, self-reporting countries are important to this thesis because they
contain budgetary and workforce data. Quantitative data is necessary to create a
benchmark and begin creating estimates in any study with unknowns. Thus, this
quantitative data allows the study to estimate unknown intelligence spending and
personnel – the explanation of this process is in Chapter 3.
There are various reasons why a country would publish its intelligence
community’s budgetary and personnel data. Some countries report their intelligence
budgets because of their own rules and regulations, generally in an attempt to provide
oversight. The US is an example of a country which requires its intelligence community
to regularly report its budget. Yet there are some drawbacks to how it reports. For
36 Ibid.
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one identified the correct number of intelligence entities, secondary sources must be
consulted.
These problems are not unique to financial matters. Indeed, similar problems
exist with sources that report on personnel. One example is Japan, which publishes a lot
of information on their intelligence establishment. However, the Land of the Rising Sun
has five distinct intelligence agencies – which apparently do not report to a single
oversight entity. The end result is that, while information exists about the employment
practices of the Japanese intelligence agencies, it becomes somewhat difficult to correctly
identify each one and find its total personnel. Nevertheless, the nations that do self-report intelligence data are valuable to this
study. While the reports are sometimes dense and qualitative, the quantitative data –
budgets and personnel figure – are like golden nuggets of information. In many cases,
reporting these figures is a matter of legality, while others report simply due to agency
practice. This body of literature, nations which opt to publish quantitative data, is far
from being universal – most are generally considered part of Western society.
Regardless, the geographical spread of self-reporting nations is worldwide.
Systematic Studies of Intelligence
Despite the lack of comprehensive quantitative research, there are two prominent
studies attempting to catalog the world’s intelligence agencies. Each study has
substantial benefits and provides a solid starting point for quantitative research.
However, each study approaches cataloging their information by using different methods.
Uniformity between these studies is certainly lacking. Before discussing them further, it
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structures its information into two broad categories, country briefings and countries
studies. For each country Henderson compares the following attributes:45
System of Government
National Intelligence Community National Security Legislation Intelligence Oversight International Intelligence Relationships Recent activities
Both categories, country studies and country briefings, contain a section of each listed
attribute. However, each country lacks completeness and uniformity in its data. For
example, Henderson’s Costa Rican country study says of intelligence oversight,
“Reportedly, there is a Legislative Assembly Committee with responsibility for
legislative review of the security and police forces”.46 This brief description includes
only the name of the legislative body and their technical area of oversight. Henderson
does not explain the historical context of the country’s intelligence oversight, officials
charged with overseeing intelligence agencies, or the source for this information. This is
a marked difference from the next country study, Estonia. For intelligence oversight,
Henderson includes the name of the oversight authorities, the historical run-up to the
current system, notable oversight figures, and the source of the information.47
While Henderson lacks uniformity in completeness of each predetermined
attribute, he effectively creates a reference guide for future studies. His goal is not to
create a methodologically correct book of case studies. Henderson wants to provide
future researchers with a starting point. As a result, many of his country studies contain
relevant information pertinent to this thesis.
45 Ibid, xi46 Robert Henderson, Brassey’s International Intelligence Yearbook: 2003 Edition (Washington DC:Brassey’s Inc, 2003), 248.47 Ibid, 258-259.
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Another study attempting to catalog the world’s intelligence agencies is a subset
of the Intelligence Resource Program (IRP), an ongoing project by the Federation of
American Scientists (FAS). This section of the IRP is dedicated toward finding and
classifying any available information on any intelligence agency.48 Each country has
information discussing their national intelligence agencies. The individual listings
generally have two sections. The first section contains documents specifically about the
intelligence agencies. For example, the IRP lists India’s three different ministries with
intelligence agencies.49 The second section contains information about sources and
background areas for future research. Looking again at the entry for India, the sourcingsection has two entries; the first is a study by Ronald Kostoff of the US Department of
the Navy, which reviews Indian defense research literature.50 The second source links to
Bharat-Rakshak, a news-like consortium with different Indian military websites
available.51 Each source provides a valuable starting place for future research.
The IRP’s website on the world’s different intelligence agencies is a repository of
information with limited analysis. It is best called a research library, not a study. Barring
countries with well-known intelligence agencies, each country entry links to either a
document on FAS’s website or to another external source. Like Henderson, the FAS’s
IRP provides resources, much like a specialized library or database.
These sources amount to correlated data and not congregate findings or
assessments. Previous qualitative methods used to describe the world’s intelligence
48 To see the IRP’s list of countries with complied information on their intelligence agencies, see John Pike,World Intelligence and Security Agencies, http://www.fas.org/irp/world/index.html.49 John Pike, India Intelligence and Security Agencies, http://www.fas.org/irp/world/india/index.html.50 Ibid. To read Kostoff’s study, see Ronald N. Kostoff, et al., Assessment of India's Research Literature,http://www.fas.org/irp/world/india/research.pdf .51 Ibid. To view Bharat-Rakshak, see Bharat-Rakshak , http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/.
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systems are relevant when looking at individual countries, and understanding other
methods to achieve civilian control over intelligence services is important. However, the
lack of quantitative studies describing intelligence communities provides an excellent
opportunity for advancement, particularly in testing Loch Johnson’s correlation between
intelligence activity and national wealth. This study’s specific goal is to quantitatively
determine the approximate size of the world’s intelligence industry, although it expects to
identify Lock’s relationship. To that end, the researcher expects the aggregated amount
spent on intelligence to near 100 billion United States Dollars (USD), and the total
number of people working within the worldwide community to be about 500,000.
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METHODOLOGY
This study uses a quantitative descriptive research design because it allows for the
classification of a sample population’s characteristics in a systematic way.52 For each
country, the study measures the following interval data – intelligence spending,
personnel, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study uses the definition of GDP
given by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The researcher collected intelligence
spending and personnel information on individual countries using open sources, primarily
from the internet. The data also comes from traditional academic sources, such as books,
journals, and conference papers. However, not all budgetary and personnel information
is readily available for every country. The study does estimate some of the intelligence
spending and personnel data. The following chapter explains the process used to identify
and estimate the different spending and personnel numbers of the world’s intelligence
industry.
This chapter also explains how the researcher collated the intelligence spending of
individual nations into standardized units, such as dollars valued at a certain year.
Quantifying the set of data allowed for cross-country comparisons. However, problems
arose when unifying the datasets and this affected the standardizing process. The last
section describes the methods used to resolve these classification problems, specifically
52 This concept and other methodological approaches are discussed in Ronald Hunter and Mark Dantzker, Research Methods for Criminology and Criminal Justice: A Primer , 2nd ed. (Boston: Jones & Bartlett,2005), 98-100,http://books.google.com/books?id=Z0sDhvGkomgC&pg=PA98&lpg=PA98&dq=descriptive+historical+design&source=bl&ots=CSla94hG0K&sig=-8ayiRuBBsQ7dp0OICv7dMOGjD8&hl=en&ei=M0whSsrLG4aHtgeK_7jCBg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2#PPP1,M1.
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how this study dealt with the definitional inconsistencies of different personnel types,
such as full-time, part-time, and contacted employees.
Data Collection
According to the Congressional Research Service, open source information comes
from newspapers, journals, radio, television, and the internet.53 Collecting information
on intelligence spending and employment came primarily from sources on the internet.
The data also came from other sources, such as scholarly journals, trade publications, and
congressional research documents.This thesis limits the scope of collection to the 195 sovereign nation-states
recognized by the United States State Department – with the exception of the Holy See
(Vatican City). These states form the basis of the data. The Vatican is not included
because there are no GDP estimates to indicate its national wealth. Attempting to
measure this indicator would likely present a problem, as most of the Vatican’s income
comes from outside its territorial boundaries. The Vatican’s external assets and
economic activity cannot be included in a GDP estimate under the BEA’s definition of
GDP, which it says is “the value of final goods and services produced in [a country] in a
given period of time”.54 With the exception of minor goods, such as tourist mementos
and museum fees, the primary sources of income for Vatican City come from external
sources. Therefore, its GDP estimate is tricky at best to determine.
53 Congressional Research Service, “Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Issues for Congress,” US Libraryof Congress, Order Code RL34270, December 5, 2007, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/RL34270.pdf .54 Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Measuring the Economy: A Primer on GDP and the National Incomeand Product Accounts,” US Department of Commerce, September 2007, 2,http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf .
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The list of 195 countries does not include dependencies or other areas that are not
independent nations. Excluding these areas is consistent with the US State Department’s
definitions.55 The United Nations also does not consider these territories as independent
nations, and they are not recognized as Member States.56
The agencies listed within each country are intelligence agencies. To the best of
his ability, the researcher excluded government agencies with characteristics unique to
law enforcement. In some cases, the distinction between intelligence and law
enforcement is blurred. One example is the treatment of financial intelligence units (FIU)
as members of an intelligence community. While some FIUs act as members of anation’s intelligence community, others do not. The researcher addressed this issue by
generally excluding agencies with mandates requiring them to enforce financial
regulations, compliance matters, and tax evasion – when it relates to money laundering.
In other cases, there is no distinction between intelligence and law enforcement
agencies. The researcher used the best available information to establish if such an
agency was consistent with the conceptual framework as explained in Chapter 2.
Collection from Internet Sources
The researcher used three different methods to collect relevant information from
the internet. The first method consisted of keyword and phrase searches using terms
most likely to generate results of an individual country’s intelligence spending and
personnel. Some keywords and phrases resulted in the desired information, but not all.
55 See United States State Department, Independent States in the World ,http://www.state.gov/s/inr/rls/4250.htm#note4.56 To see the list of Member-States of the United Nations, see United Nations, Member States of the United
Nations, http://www.un.org/en/members/ [accessed June 1, 2009].
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Most of the search results gave supplementary information, such as oversight committees
or annual reports about the intelligence community of a country. The most useful results
were noted for future use.
After using this initial search criterion, the researcher adjusted the terms to
specify the intelligence agencies. Adjusting the search criterion increased the precision
of the results. The process of searching initial keywords and phrases, then refining, is a
matter of trial and error. After finding the relevant information, the researcher recorded
the relevant data and year of publication. This method was applied to every country.
In the second search method, the researcher utilized online journals and websiteswith dedicated sections on intelligence. Journals like the International Journal of
Intelligence and Counterintelligence, the Defense Intelligence Journal, and the
Intelligence and National Security Journal, provided some keywords and phrases for
future use. While some of the journals are available print, many more are available on
the internet. Additionally, their online versions tended to be more suitable, as they are
easier to conduct keyword searches.
The researcher searched these journals in a very systematic manner, where the
most recent editions’ articles were examined for relevant information. The only articles
searched had descriptions about intelligence agencies or communities – however, the
journal article titles provided most of the information necessary to determine if they
contained any relevant information. After recording the relevant data and citation from
the journal publication, the researcher continued on to the previous journal edition,
searching through it for relevant information. Each scholarly journal received this
process.
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be published from time to time”.58 In practice however, the publication of this
information does not occur on a set schedule, but rather infrequently.59 Nevertheless,
when self-reporting does exist it is generally attainable through government websites.
The researcher used a systematic search approach similar to the method used for online
publishers, in order to gather this information.
In the third method, the researcher used “Google Alerts,” a free “push” service
from Google.com. The researcher created a generic Boolean search criterion and set it at
the comprehensive collection level. This setting covers news, blogs, and videos.
However, using Google Alerts requires the user to first identify terms likely to produceresults. The researcher first identified the names of a particular country’s intelligence
agencies, generally both in English and the native language. After identifying these
agencies, the researcher entered their various names into the Google Alert search field
using Boolean format. The reporting of these results generally occurred on a daily basis.
In order to assist the translating of non-English results found by these three search
methods, the researcher used the website FreeTranslation.com. The owner of this
website is a service company that provides language translation software to global
corporations.60 FreeTranslation.com has two useful features: first, it has a single word
translator. The user inputs the text from the original language and selects the language of
the translation. Second, it has an entire webpage translator, where, the user inputs the
Uniform Resource Locator (URL) and then FreeTranslation.com coverts it from the
originating language to the desired language.
58 “The Constitution of the United States,” Article I, Section 9, Clause 7.59 Congressional Research Service, “Intelligence Spending: Public Disclosure Issues,” US Library of Congress, Order Code 94-261, Updated February 15, 2007, 2, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/94-261.pdf .60 SLD, Company Profile, http://www.sdl.com/en/company/company/.
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Despite the benefits provided from using FreeTranslation.com, the website does
not have a comprehensive list of languages. The text translator can only translate into
English from the following languages: Spanish, French, German, Italian, Dutch,
Portuguese, Russian, and Japanese. A similar restriction applies to their webpage
translator. The webpage translator can only translate to English: Spanish, French,
German, Italian, Dutch, and Portuguese. FreeTranslation.com also does not translate
Portable Document Format (PDFs) – a rather large drawback. Despite these limitations,
the service did assist in researching general information about foreign intelligence
agencies.
Collection from Other Sources
Data collected also came from other sources not previously mentioned. These
sources include journals not online, trade publications, and congressional documents.
The most common way in which the researcher identified these resources was cited
footnotes in other sources. Throughout the data collection process, the researcher
continually checked the sourcing of relevant data, which not only provided more
resources, but also allowed the researcher to better gauge the information’s reliability and
credibility. For example, one document from the Congressional Research Service
document gave Spain’s intelligence spending for 2006.61 The report’s authors cite
discussions with Spanish officials as the source of this information. Checking the
sourcing also led the researcher to further research that sometimes yielded more relevant
61 Congressional Research Service, "European Approaches to Homeland Security and Counterterrorism,"US Library of Congress, Order Code RL33573, July 24, 2006, 34,http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33573.pdf .
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data. A footnote may contain a book, report, or other primary source publications, which
can led to other relevant studies.
Other Relevant Information Collection
In addition to collecting information on intelligence spending and personnel, the
researcher also identified the corresponding year of the published data, and GDPs of the
individual countries. The purpose of citing the year of publication and the GDPs of
individual countries is to assist in comparing and estimating unknown datasets. The GDP
figures come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was chosen for itsconsistent reporting periods. Also included are the names of the national intelligence
agencies, indicated intelligence community, or intelligence spending program. The
names of the intelligence agencies are not necessarily relevant to this study, but they are
available for reference purposes only. The researcher used Microsoft Excel to collate this
information in one single spreadsheet. Under each country listing is the name of an
intelligence agency and its corresponding budgetary and personnel data. However, if the
only information found represented the national intelligence community or spending
program, then it is indicated, and not necessarily each agency.
Establishing Webpage Credibility
This thesis uses Dax Norman’s Trust Evaluation Worksheet to estimate the
credibility of online sources. This Worksheet comes from Norman’s study, How to
Identify Credible Sources on the Web, in which he seeks to determine a “valid criteria for
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evaluating the credibility of open source Web sites”.62 It is the first quantitative study
which aims to create a methodologically sound criterion for establishing a website’s
credibility, while targeting its use for open-source analysts. Previous studies either
addressed the issue as tangent to a larger study or were methodologically flawed.
According to Norman, there are several factors to consider when determining the
credibility of a website; corroboration is the most influential criterion.63 The worksheet
applies only to websites and not to online editions of journals or other primarily
hardcover sources. Each online source has a credibility rating recorded with its citation.
The purpose of tracking credibility is incidental to this study – it merely provides acritique to non-peer reviewed sources.
Process for Estimating Unknown Spending
This thesis uses a three step process for estimating the unknown intelligence
spending of an individual country. In short, the researcher created a ratio using the
known intelligence spending and GDP from countries with the available information.
Once identifying each individual ratio for countries with known intelligence spending,
the researcher created an average of all the ratios. By using this averaged ratio, the study
identified the unknown intelligence spending for the remaining countries. GDP acts as
the independent variable, while intelligence spending represents the dependent variable.
GDP is independent because it represents national wealth – the variable that influences
the country’s intelligence spending. The following three steps explain how the study
62 Dax Norman, "How to Identify Credible Sources on The Web,," (Master's Thesis, Joint MilitaryIntelligence College, December 2001), viii, http://daxrnorman.googlepages.com/5-CompleteThesis-May08.pdf .63 Dax Norman, “Websites You Can Trust,” American Libraries 37, no. 7 (2006), 36,http://daxrnorman.googlepages.com/WebSitesYouCanTrust-Oct08.pdf .
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unknown personnel, as the estimated figure relies on intelligence spending. The
individual steps in the process are:
Step 1: Identify the two most similar countries on the basis of reported intelligence
spending. These two countries must have both reported spending and personnel. One
country must have a lower level of reported intelligence spending than the country with
unknown personnel. The other country must have higher reported intelligence spending
than the country with unknown personnel.
Step 2: The country with the lower reported intelligence spending and personnel is set as
the low range, while the other country with reported intelligence spending and personnelis set as the high range. The country with unreported personnel must fall somewhere in
between the high and low ranges.
Step 3: Average the personnel for both the high and low ranges. This results in a ratio of
the two ranges.
Step 4: Apply this ratio to the country with unknown personnel.
There are also countries with neither reported intelligence spending nor personnel.
For these countries, the researcher used the previously described process to estimate
intelligence spending. This included each of the three steps, where estimates use a
general ratio based on GDP. After estimating the country’s intelligence spending, finding
its personnel is a matter of following the pre-described four step process.
Standardizing Spending Units
The information for each country’s intelligence spending often came from
different periods in time and in different currencies. In order to standardize the monetary
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units, the researcher converted the amounts from the originating currency to US Dollars
(USD). After converting the units, the amount still remained in the reported year. In
order to unify the estimated amounts into a single year, the study uses 2008 used as a
baseline year. To convert the original currency to USD, the researcher used the website
Oanda.com. This website provides free “Internet-based forex trading and currency
information services”.64 The advantage of using Oanda.com is that it allows the user to
convert currencies using previous rates. The user can determine the desired amount
currency to convert, set the rate used, and then pick the expressed currency.65
Standardizing Personnel Definitions
While the currency data may differ, personnel information suffers from
conflicting definitions. Some sources include only full-time employees, while others
include contract-based personnel. For example, the Canadian Security Intelligence
Service reports its total as the number of full-time equivalent employees.66 However, the
US includes approximately 56,000 contractors with its total intelligence personnel.67 In
order to come to terms with the differences in classification, the researcher only included
full-time equivalent employees directly employed by the government agency. In most
situations, the reported figure did not further divide personnel into separate categories.
The researcher accepted these figures as full-time equivalents.
64 OANDA, About OANDA, http://www.oanda.com/site/oanda/com_index.shtml.65 OANDA, “FXConverter - Currency Converter for 164 Currencies,”http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic.66 Canadian Security Intelligence Service, “Public Report 2006-2007,” Canadian Security IntelligenceService (Gatineau: Public Works and Government Services, 2007), 15, http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/pblctns/nnlrprt/2006/rprt2006-eng.pdf .67Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2009 National Intelligence Strategy, September 15, 2009,http://www.fas.org/irp/news/2009/09/dni091509-m.pdf .
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RESULTS
Research into the approximate size of the world’s intelligence industry produced a
number of interesting results. This chapter will give the overall findings produced by the
methods described in Chapter 3. This chapter’s first section will discuss the patterns of
intelligence spending, while the second section will describe the workforce of the
intelligence industry. The third section will give a brief narrative description of the
identified intelligence agencies. The fourth and final section will provide a summary of
the results.
The Totals: Spending
Using the described methods, this study identifies that the world’s intelligence
industry spends an estimated
$106,961,604,308.01 United States
Dollars (USD) on an annual basis. The
relationship between intelligence
spending and Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) is positive, where for every 947
units of GDP there are two units of
intelligence spending. The United States
spends the most on intelligence. As shown in Figure 4.1, the US spends about $75 billion
dollars, approximately 65 percent of the total amount. According to statistics from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US’s GDP represents only 23.5 percent of the
US
Intelligence
Spending:
$75 Billion
65%
WorldIntelligence
Spending:
$31.96
Billion
35%
Figure 4.1: Total World Intelligence
Spending
Total Spending: $106,961,604,308.01
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However, excluding the US when measuring variation produces an average of
$248,494,801.33.
The other 175 nations, or the bottom 90 percent, spend the remaining seven
percent of the total intelligence figure, or $7,453,907,456.88. These countries have a
total GDP of $12,819,519,999,996, comprising about 31.12 percent of the world’s 2008
GDP.71 When comparing this population’s proportion of intelligence spending to its
proportion of GDP, it again demonstrates unevenness. The bottom 90 percent of
intelligence spenders is similar to the bottom 90 percent of countries with the lowest
GDP. The average intelligence spending for these countries is $42,593,756.90.A bar graph is perhaps the best method for displaying the spread of intelligence
spending by each country. The graph in Figure 4.3 shows countries sorted by intelligence
spending. The countries most close to the y-axis have the highest intelligence spending,
while the countries farthest away, along the x-axis, have the lowest intelligence spending.
For the purpose of increasing clarity, numbers are in place of country names. Appendix
B: Intelligence Spending Sorted Highest to Lowest has a list of each number’s
corresponding country, along with their individual intelligence spending. Additionally,
the y-axis in Figure 4.3 is set as logarithmic – its scale increasing by the power 10 – in
order to improve the visual display of the data.
There are two trend lines that seem to be the best fit for the data, power and
exponential. The first line is solid black and represents the exponential trend line. The
second line is a dotted black, representing the power trend line. The solid black trend line
71See International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2009,http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2008&ey=2008&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=001%2C998&s=NGDPD&grp=1&a=1&pr.x=27&pr.y=8.
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increases steadily upward from right to left. Given the logarithmic scaling, this
movement is consistent with what one expects from data which is exponential. The
dotted black trend line increases right to left in a similar way, however, there is a steady
curve that eventually hooks sharply upwards as it nears the y-axis. The researcher
computed the R-Squared (R 2) values – which measures how well a trend line will match
with the data – in order to assist in analyzing the trend lines. The R 2 value for the
exponential trend line is 0.940 and the R 2 value for the power trend line is 0.835. It is
likely that the dataset, the individual intelligence spending, follows slightly more of an
exponential curve rather than a curve that obeys a power law. Nevertheless, the proximity of the two R 2 values to one another is notable, as it indicates that the dataset
may still follow a power law. Further research into identifying the minimum x (Xmin) and
the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is necessary. This step is necessary to
determine the approximated scaling exponent of the curve, if indeed it does follow a
power law curve. After finding the scaling exponent, it ought to be relatively simple to
accurately say this data does or does not follow a power law curve.
One interesting finding of this study is the difference the US has on deriving
statistical information from the data. For instance, including the US in estimating the
mean amount spent on intelligence results in an average of $548,521,047.73. However,
without the US the average drops dramatically, to $164,750,537.67. The standard
deviation with the US is $5,389,872,754.45, without the US it is $576,959,565.88. The
differences in the two means and standard deviations are noteworthy. On one hand, this
information suggests that the US is an outlier and it should not be included when
calculating this statistical information. On the other hand, the US appears to play a very
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Table 4.1: Affect of US on Estimating
Population(US Included)
Population(US Excluded)
Average Spending $548,521,047.73 $164,750,537.67
Standard Deviation $5,389,872,754.45 $576,959,565.88
Ratios for Estimating 2/947 1/442
Percent Difference of Estimates 5.22%
As for the countries that comprise the top ten percent of intelligence spenders,
obvious nations – such as the US, UK, and Russia – are on the list. However, it is
surprising to see the nations not on the top ten percent list. If GDP is the primary
indicator of intelligence spending, then Spain would most certainly make the list with its
1.2 trillion dollar economy.72 Yet sources indicate that it spends about $200,000,000, an
amount far lower than Venezuela, which is part of the top ten percent. A direct
correlation between GDP and intelligence spending may exist, but it is not strongly
indicated here. It is apparent that GDP is a factor when it comes to intelligence spending
but it does not seem to be the primary factor. Further research is necessary to quantify
GDP’s affect on intelligence spending.
72 See Spain’s 2005 GDP at International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, World Economic Outlook Database, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx.
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US144,000
13%
Russia
172,000
15%
World
814,104
72%
The Totals: Personnel
This study identifies the total number of people working in the intelligence
industry as 1,130,104 persons. The two largest employers are the US and Russia who, as
shown in Figure 4.4, jointly employ approximately 28 percent of the total. All other
things being equal, it is logical to assume that because the US spends the most on
intelligence, that it should also employ the most people. However, it employs about
28,000 less than Russia. The US does
employ approximately 56,000
intelligence contractors, however.
73
Including them into the calculations
would increase the US’s share, but the
definitions given previously in this
study prohibit non-government workers
from being counted. Regardless, the
US employs about 144,000 people,
resulting in roughly $520,833 in
intelligence spending per person. Its GDP per person is about $99,059,722.
For Russia, its total number of workers is about 172,000, making it the world’s
largest employer of intelligence professionals.74 Although Russia may employ the most
people, it does not come nearly as close as spending the most money. Russia has about
73 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2009 National Intelligence Strategy, September 15, 2009,http://www.fas.org/irp/news/2009/09/dni091509-m.pdf . Although the total number given by the ODNI is200,000, previous interviews indicate that in 2008 the US's intelligence community employed 28 percent of its workforce as contractors. After removing contractors, 56,000, the remaining number of employees isabout 144,000. See Joseph Fitsanakis, "US Spy Services Hiding True Employee Numbers Says SenatePanel," IntelNews.org, July 27, 2009, http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2009/07/27/01-195/.74 Ivan Safranchuk, “Funding for the Russian Secret Services," Agentura.ru,http://www.agentura.ru/english/experts/safranchuk/.
Total Employment: 1,130,104
Figure 4.4: Total Intelligence Employment
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$18,902.70 in intelligence spending per person – a figure substantially lower than its
American counterpart. This difference is also present when using GDP to calculate a per
person figure, which is $5,752,488. Obviously there are other factors working into the
equation. Given the small scope of this study, the finding here is that there are some
differences in employment practices.
Using the best information available, this thesis finds 21 countries that employ
10,000 or more people. They employ about 61 percent of the world’s total intelligence
workforce, or 689,428 people. As shown in Figure 4.5, the 21 countries come from
various regions around the world – however, some countries listed, such as Camroon andAlgeria, have estimated personnel. The researcher based these estimates on the best
available information and the methods outlined in Chapter 3. The total intelligence
employment of these countries varies, as seen in Figure 4.6. While the US has the
highest intelligence spending per person, $520,833.33, the United Kingdom has the
highest GDP per person, at $229,787,213.11. Panama has the lowest intelligence
spending per person, $1,465.79, and Syria has the lowest GDP per person, $1,567,200.
One interesting country on the list of top intelligence employers is China. China
is third largest intelligence employer in the world with an estimated workforce of 88,050
people, a figure representing about 7.79 percent of the world’s total intelligence industry.
Yet China’s intelligence spending per person is $46,755.19 – 40.42 percent higher than
Russia. Figure 4.7 compares the amounts spent per person by China, Russia, and the
world’s average. Taken at face value, China’s spending per employee is clearly more
consistent with the world average when compared with Russia. China employs less
people but spends more per person than its Russian counterpart.
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Figure 4.6: Top 21 Intelligence Employers
Country
P e o p l e
Figure 4.5: Geographic Position of Top Intelligence Employers
= Top Intelligence Employers
Source: Trevor Coultart, World Geography Ignorance,
http://trevorcoultart.wordpress.com/2008/05/26/world-geography-ignorance/. The grey shading and
color alterations are the work of this researcher.
http://trevorcoultart.wordpress.com/2008/05/26/world-geography-ignorance/http://trevorcoultart.wordpress.com/2008/05/26/world-geography-ignorance/
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Figure 4.7 also says something about Russia. One of three scenarios is likely:
Russia’s identified intelligence spending is grossly inaccurate, the country values
intelligence less than the rest of the world, or the country has drastically different hiring
practices than its peers.
The remaining 90 percent of employers comprise 174 countries, representing 39
percent of the world’s total intelligence workforce, or 440,676 people – shown in Figure
4.8. The average number of persons employed by any given country is 2,533, with a
standard deviation of 2,709. Australia spends the most on its intelligence professionals,
about $1,273,174.83 per person. However, this figure may result from problems with
collection. The country with the second highest intelligence spending per person is
Japan, which spends approximately $1,123,208.36 per employee. Japan’s spending per
person estimate is likely more accurate due to the completeness in data collected on its
workforce. In arguing the correctness of its estimate, this thesis is also arguing that Japan
$0.00
$10,000.00
$20,000.00
$30,000.00
$40,000.00
$50,000.00
$60,000.00
I n t e l l i g e n c e S p e n d i n
g P e r P e r s o n
C h i n a
R u s s i a
W o r l d
A v e r a g e
Figure 4.7: Comparing Intelligence Spending Per Person
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has the highest intellige
total comes from the Mi
spending is an estimate.
One interesting fi
approximately 60 perce
employ 10,000 or more
intelligence spenders. O
on the list of top intellige
the assumption that a relyet it does not. Most co
system, as shown in Fi
countries that employ m
to cluster around employ
T
E
ce spending per person in the world. Infor
istry of Defense’s National Institute for Defen
ding is the diversity in intelligence spending p
t of the world’s intelligence workforce is
persons, these nations are not necessarily the
nly six countries with the highest intelligence
nce employers – as shown in Figure 4.9. The d
tionship exists between intelligence spendingntries employ between 0 and 2,000 persons in
ure 4.10. There are also notable decreases i
re than 6,000 persons and then again at 14,000.
ent levels between 0-6,000, and then 8,000-14
Total Employment
op Ten Percent
Employment 689,428
Bottom 90
Percent
mployment440,676
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Figure 4.8: Bottom 90 PercentEmployment vs. Top Ten Percent
Employment
44
ation on Japan’s
e Studies, but its
er person. While
n countries that
same as the top
pending are also
ata should reflect
nd employment,their intelligence
n the number of
Countries seem
,000.
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Other Extracted Results
Research of the 195 sovereign nations identified 246 different national
intelligence agencies.75 Based on the best available information, this list does not include
agencies involved in law enforcement. The average number of intelligence agencies per
country is 1.28. Most of these agencies seem to focus on military or political-strategic
target sets rather than operating and maintaining technological systems. The average
credibility rating for internet sources is 38.56, or somewhere between the medium and
high ranges of Dax Norman’s Trust Evaluation Worksheet . Before elaborating further on
credibility, the following paragraphs will discuss the exclusion of certain financial“intelligence agencies”.
The 246 different agencies identified by this study generally do not include ones
that specialize in, what they list as, “financial intelligence”. The by and large exclusion
of these agencies is due to inconsistent descriptions of their duties, as briefly discussed in
the methodology. For instance, the Canadian Financial Transaction and Reports Analysis
Centre (FINTRAC) says a primary function is to counter terrorist financing,76 while its
mandate requires the agency to “provide law enforcement financial intelligence that
would be relevant to the investigation or prosecution of money laundering offences and
terrorist activity financing offences as well as to provide CSIS [the Canadian Security
75 The figure does not include intelligence agencies of the United States. This is because the intelligence
spending of the US is expressed in its budgetary account form, that is, the National Intelligence Program(NIP) or the Military Intelligence Program. The same is true for the United Kingdom which expresses itsintelligence spending via the Single Intelligence Account (SIA). There is some question as whether or notthe Defense Intelligence Staff includes its budget within the SIA – the figure within this study appears toinclude it. For referencing on the SIA, see Intelligence and Security Committee, "Annual Report 2007-2008," Parliament of the United Kingdom, ISC 2008/09/064, 8, http://www.fas.org/irp/world/uk/isc2007-08.pdf .76 To view a FINTRAC’s 2008 Annual Report on its duties, functions, and activities, see FinancialTransactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada, FINTRAC Annual Report 2008 (Ottawa: 2008), 22,http://www.fintrac-canafe.gc.ca/publications/ar/2008/ar-eng.pdf .
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and Intelligence Service is the country’s foreign intelligence agency] with financial
intelligence that would be relevant threats to the security of Canada”.77 FINTRAC is an
intelligence agency that participates in collection and analysis, and interacts with the
Canadian intelligence system. Another example is the Saudi Arabian Financial
Investigation Unit, whose first priority is to “handle suspicious financial transactions,
analyze them and prepare reports thereon to submit them to the competent
authorities…and exchanges information with the relevant agencies in Saudi Arabia and
abroad”.78 Despite using the term “investigation” in its title, the entity is Saudi Arabia’s
official financial intelligence unit.
79
These agencies differ from that of the Bahamas’Financial Intelligence Unit, which says it is “The Bahamas’ regulator for anti-money
laundering and prevention of the financing of terrorism”.80 While the unit’s realm of
specialty includes preventing terrorism financing, the definition given here, along with
the Financial Intelligence Unit Act of 2000, clearly describes itself as a regulatory entity
and not an intelligence agency.81 The Bahamas’ description of its Financial Intelligence
77 Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada, Who We Are, http://www.fintrac-canafe.gc.ca/fintrac-canafe/1-eng.asp [accessed May 30, 2009].78 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Financial Investigation Unit, Background ,http://www.moi.gov.sa/wps/portal/safiu/!ut/p/c1/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3hT5wBnTwtfY0 N3ZxNnA08TwzCDYGdTY6MAE6B8JJK8gamTs4FRmJ-zaVBIgIGboykB3cGpefrhIDtxq7I0RpPHYgdI3gAHcDTQ9_PIz03VL8iNqPDMMlEEACELTPE!/dl2/d1/L0lDU0lKSWdra0EhIS9JTlJBQUlpQ2dBek15cUEhL1lCSkoxTkExTkk1MC13ISEvN181Q1BDSThNMzE4NkU0MEk0NUpNNktFMkMyMQ!!/?WCM_PORTLET=PC_7_5CPCI8M3186E40I45JM6KE2C21_WCM&WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/wps/wcm/connect/main/Financial+Investigation/Main/Background/
[accessed November 17, 2009]79 The Egmont Group, List of Members, http://www.egmontgroup.org/about/list-of-members/by-region/asia[accessed November 17, 2009].80 Commonwealth of The Bahamas, Welcome to FIU Bahamas,http://www.bahamas.gov.bs/bahamasweb2/home.nsf/vContentW/A4AE9BF530DECF23852572C600580BD7.81 See An Act to Provide for the Establishment of a Body to be Known As the Financial Intelligence Unit ,the Functions and Powers of That Body, a