A STRUCTURED APPROACH TO ANALYSE - European Commission · We conclude by recommending the critical technologies that can help us to successfully respond to ... Newland and Henk in

5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow Brussels, 27-28 November 2014

THEME 3: CUTTING EDGE FTA APPROACHES

- 1 -

A STRUCTURED APPROACH TO ANALYSE

FUTURE TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS

Shankar Venugopal and Tushar Kanikdale

Affiliation(s) with mailing address and e-mail for correspondence

Abstract

We present a framework and a structured approach for creating and analysing future technology scenarios (FTS). Our systematic process captures diverse inputs from an ever changing external environment to build and analyse FTS. We demonstrate the efficacy of our seven - steps process by applying it to the automotive domain and analysing the future of IC engine technology. The future technology scenario is analysed holistically using our seven - forces framework. The critical parameters that control the actualization of a scenario are identified and tracked to predict the evolution of each scenario. We conclude by recommending the critical technologies that can help us to successfully respond to each FTS.

Keywords: Future Technology Scenarios, Technology Strategy, Disruptive Technologies, Critical Parameters

Introduction

Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool conventionally used to make flexible long-term business plans. The greatest strength of scenario planning is that it replaces the conventional practice of prescriptive forecasting by a flexible and adaptive approach to deal with future as it happens. The scenario planning approach involves identifying the significant events, delineating the main contributing factors, tracing their drivers and analysing the evolution of alternative future scenarios (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Alternative Future Scenarios



- 2 -

The power of scenario planning approach was first demonstrated by two Shell executives from the planning department, Newland and Henk in 1971, to describe alternative futures. The practice is currently enjoying a renaissance outside Shell, with growing evidence of its effectiveness. Bain researchers reported in 2007 that the firm’s regular survey of management tools showed “an abrupt and sustained surge” in the use of scenario planning after 9/11 and although there have been ups and downs since, the number of companies using scenario planning is rapidly increasing (1). The scenario planning has been used for creating business growth strategies that involve M&A, diversification, expansion, and investments but there are relatively very few instances of its use in creating technology strategy. Again the business strategy recommendation is made based on the knowledge of current technology capability and may not take in to account the new technologies and their potential to address the future needs.

The power of new technologies to disrupt traditional businesses is amply demonstrated by recent happenings in digital photography and digital music. The easy access to internet and mobile phone technologies has levelled the playing field and introduced creative new players in traditional industries. The R&D departments of large companies are now forced to look beyond mature technologies and secure their future from technology disruptions. The R&D leaders, technology planners and new product development (NPD) managers actively seek ways to drive technology decisions for the future using a sound technology strategy. Hence there is a strong need for creating a structured approach to formulating technology strategies and building technology roadmaps for the future.

For instance, when we looked at the efforts to use the scenario planning approach for technology selection in automotive domain, most of the published work is narrowly focused either by technology or by region. There are a few instances of analysis of future emission technologies, engine lubrication technologies - Koyamaishi et al have illustrated the technology development for engine lubrication oil considering the future scenarios of global warming, depletion of natural resources and air pollution (2), Bernard et. al. have described the future of engine technology purely from meeting advanced emission norms and has highlighted the use of corresponding technologies for diesel engines (3), Best et. al. have presented diesel engine technology needs for India with an emphasize on meeting emission norms and improving fuel economy through various technologies for passenger cars, on highway and off highway vehicles (4). There is an unmet need for a systematic analysis of global future technology scenarios using a structured approach based on the principles of scenario planning.

Systematic innovation methodology based on theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ) helps technologists to predict the technology evolution trends. The TRIZ Laws of Technical system evolution are powerful and insightful enough to direct technologists towards right direction of technology development along the series of S-Curves as increasing “Ideality” of the technical system. “Ideality” is defined as the ratio of useful effects to the harmful effects and cost and must increase when the evolution laws are systematically applied. This approach however relies on multiple assumptions like the availability of resources, supporting infrastructure is in place, IP can be protected, the price of the product is acceptable to the market etc. Hence there is a risk of developing technologies that are difficult to commercialize, easy to copy or design around by competitors, not easily scalable and sometimes perceived to be too complex or expensive to be accepted by the market. This necessitates the need for a new and systematic approach that will enable organizations to correctly visualize the most likely future technology scenario requirements, ecosystem, constraints, available resources etc to focus on the critical technology development themes.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0024630111000185



- 3 -

Case Study - Future Technology Scenarios (FTS) for Automotive Industry

The automotive industry, like most other industries, is constantly threatened by technology disruptions, uncertainties in government policy and unpredictable events. Hence we chose to demonstrate the usefulness of our FTS approach by applying it to the automotive industry. We focused on the future of the Internal Combustion (IC) engine technology and analysed in great detail the impact of climate change. This analysis is easily extendable to any other domain and relevant technologies.

McKinsey global institute recently published (5) a report highlighting twelve disruptive technologies that will transform the way people live in the global world. These disruptive technologies will have significant impact on almost all the industries, products and services by 2025. The most relevant technology disruptions for the automotive domain could be Energy Storage, Internet of Things (IOT), Advanced Materials, Renewable energy and Advanced Oil & Gas exploration. These technologies are growing very rapidly and becoming more technically feasible and economically viable. The application of one or combination of more technologies opens up multiple scenarios, which can significantly shift the industry landscape, alter product specifications and transform customer experience

In many emerging markets and high growth regions, the emission roadmap for nationwide implementation of advanced emission norms is still uncertain today in terms actual schedule, availability of low sulphur fuel etc. There also exists a possibility that developing countries can leapfrog to advanced emission norms directly or may implement few more regulations like in-service emission norms. There also exist multiple uncertainties around availability of fuels - for instance the rights for oil digging, distribution and regulations in Indian Ocean are still not clear, the global oil supply line implementation planned from Iraq via Afghanistan is still uncertain. The world is seeing ever increasing and multiple sudden events impacting the whole world. Be it 9 /11 in USA or 11/26 in India or civil war in Iraq or discovery of shale gas. The recent decision by Tesla motors to make available their IP for other players in the field has the potential to accelerate the development of electric cars. Many of these unexpected developments are so powerful that it can change the face of the entire automotive industry.



- 4 -

Systematic Approach for analysing Future Technology Scenarios

The first step is to choose a product and analyse the main drivers or forces influencing it. We use a comprehensive seven – forces framework that include political, economical, social, technical, legal/ regulatory, competitive and infrastructural (Figure 2). The analysis of all the seven forces leads to valuable insights about the ecosystem around the core technology. All the forces are dynamic and there are instances when one force hugely dominate over others for a specific base product, space and time. The seven vectorial forces are continuously acting on the core technology with different magnitude and directions. The interaction of the forces are dynamic in nature and continue to change with time as future trends.

Figure 2 Seven – Forces Framework for analysing FTS

The magnitude and direction of the forces can be qualitatively analysed by collecting inputs in terms of events, literatures, research, social patterns, disruptions etc. The net effect of direction and magnitude of individual forces enables making sound choices for strategic activities like product planning, technology road mapping, collaborative research etc. for a given time frame and region.

The next phase of our analysis involves the identification of critical parameters and description of critical events. The analysis of the seven forces for each scenario is used to identify the critical parameters that the industry needs to track on a continuous basis. The parameters should be available in the public domain readily to capture and track on regular basis. The critical parameters are then translated into critical events as sub-scenarios to assess future trends in a probabilistic way. The critical parameters and critical events serve three important purposes



- 5 -

Create a sense of urgency

Enable creation of adaptive and flexible strategies

Enable dynamic changes during the course of execution

The changes in the parameters can significantly affect the business by

Shifting the competitive landscape

Shifting the product plan

Shifting the technology plan

Changing the markets

Changing the customer behavior

Creating significant new opportunities

Posing significant threat to the business

Widening the gap in core competency required

Our systematic approach to analyse future technology scenarios (FTS) is described as a seven - steps process depicted in

Figure 3.

Step 1: Identify the core technology area

To demonstrate the application of our methodology in the automotive domain, we consider the IC engine as the core technology for the analysis. The purpose of the engine technology is to transform the hydrocarbon fuel energy into mechanical form while meeting emission regulation standards. Any changes to this purpose or means of achieving the purpose would significantly impact future business growth and strategy

Step 2: Hypothesize Future Technology Scenarios

Three scenarios are illustrated in Figure 4 for analysing the future of the IC engine. The rationale used for visualizing the three future scenarios is based on correlation with the key input (fuel), desirable output (performance) and undesirable output (emissions) of the IC engine.

Scenario 1: Climate Control Becomes Critical

Scenario 2: Hydrocarbon becomes backend fuel for Electricity Generation

Scenario 3: Autonomous Vehicles Becomes Popular



- 6 -

Figure 3 Seven - Steps Approach for Analysing Future Technology Scenario

Step1

Identify Core Technology Area

Step 2

Hypothesize future Technolgy scenarios

Step 3

Analyze the Seven Forces

that drive each future scenario

Step 4

Identify the Critical Parameters & continuously monitor their evolution

Step 5

Identify the current and future probabilities for Critical Events

Step 6

Develop Technology Themes & Directions

Step 7

Identify Critical Technology

Development Ideas



- 7 -

Figure 4. Three hypothetical future scenarios for the IC Engine

We consider all the three scenarios to be evolving simultaneously at varying pace in time and in various geographical regions. The future scenario can be any one or the combination of one or more scenarios for a given time and region. Our approach allows creating and analyzing more scenarios and their combinations in the same way.

Step 3: Analyze Driving Forces for Future Technology Scenarios

The seven - forces framework (Figure 2) is used to analyze Scenario 1 with the intent of

illustrating the application of the FTS approach

Table 1 – Analysis of Seven Forces for Scenario: Climate Control Becomes Critical

- Greenhouse gases - Of all the sources that contribute to Greenhouse Gases (GHG), emissions from the burning of fossil fuels need more effective control measures. Year by year, rising global temperatures have been accompanied by shifts in climate and weather. A recent report by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Climatic Data Centre on global climate analysis for the year 2013 disclosed that the year 2013 was recorded to be the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880. In concurrence, the global CO2 emissions have more than doubled over the last 40 years. Also, in the year 2012, China, the United States and EU27 were the world's three largest CO2 emitters (6). This trend is continuing to compel nations to set their own energy consumption targets over next 10 years to curb the effective of unfavourable climate changes. For instance India’s national action plan on climate change (NAPCC) (7) outlines the combination of measures that can reduce Transport CO2, emissions, more biofuel use, enhanced vehicle energy efficiency, mobility plans for cities and other initiatives to promote the use of low carbon transport



- 8 -

- Natural disasters - As per WHO report (8), globally, the number of weather-related natural disasters is increasing. Reports of extreme weather events and natural disasters have more than tripled since the 1960s. In 2007, 14 out of 15 appeals for emergency humanitarian assistance were for floods, droughts and storms – five times higher than in any previous year. Climate change is happening now and it inevitably affects the basic requirements for health: clean air and water, sufficient food and adequate shelter. Each year, about 3.5 million people die from malnutrition, 2.2 million from diarrhoea, 800 000 from causes attributable to urban air pollution, and 60 000 in climate-related disasters. Lack of sufficient actions to prevent health hazards will make climate control as one of the most critical issue in future.

- Remanufacturing - The recent trends in sustainable businesses initiatives like Remanufacturing are attractive due to multiple advantages the solution offers in terms of lower energy consumption, higher revenue, growing market demands and financial pressures faced by industries. In the automotive world, remanufacturing of certain engine components has shown that it requires 85 % less energy to remanufacture as compared to new manufacturing. Remanufacturing also helps in minimizing the wastage of materials and engineering efforts. A leading magazine (9) highlights the need for Remanufacturing even for developed nations like UK as essential element for job creation, sustainability and economy growth. The same trends are applicable for other developing countries of the world also to meet the energy targets and directly affect the industry practices for designing and managing product over its life cycle.



- 9 -

- Carbon sequestration - There has been a growing interest in carbon sequestration as a viable option for large energy production and delivery infrastructure. A typical solution focuses on carbon dioxide capture and storage, where carbon dioxide is captured at its source (e.g., power plants, industrial processes) and subsequently stored in non-atmospheric reservoirs (e.g., depleted oil and gas reservoirs, unmineable coal seams, deep saline formations, Deep Ocean (10). The recent interests and directions in research (11) indicates the possibility of making carbon storage technologies suitable to fit into lighter vehicles and cars in various modes like pre-combustion, post combustion and oxy-fuel. The stored carbon is then removed at refuelling stations or recycled

- Cecilia 2050 report (12) mentions different instruments for minimizing GHG emission. The strategic actions involve avoiding or minimizing travel, shifting to non motorized and public transport and improving the motorized transport. Based on the government’s policies if the first two actions dominates then use of motorized vehicles will be discouraged.

- Global Gridlock - Bill Ford in his TED talk (13) mentions about the global gridlock with the rise in the number of cars to 2-4 billion by year 2050 which are expected to create significant impact on the health, food and quality of life. He stresses the need for automotive industry to venture into creating new green designs, lower CO2 emissions, lower environmental impact and improved fuel technology. The ideas to create sustainable future are described in terms of developing connected cars, smart and integrated transportation, smart roads, smart parking system etc.

Step 4: Identify the Critical Parameters

Based on the analysis of the seven forces that drive a scenario, a few critical parameters are selected to monitor on regular basis. The parameters selected should be quantifiable and readily available in public domain or non-confidential documents. They can be monitored with respect to a specific geographical region or market of interest. Further the selection can be expanded or narrowed down based on the relevancy and strategic objectives

- GHG / CO2 emission norms implementation status - Performance, Number of safety & security issues for Google car - Technical feasiblity and economic viability for enabling technologies like batteries, fuel cells,

alternative & cleaner fuels, power electronics, remanufacturing, carbon storage, smart sensors, adaptive controls, Emission controls, fuel cell materials, Telematics, thermodynamic cycles,

- Travel Mix Ratios of private vs public transport - Number of micro grids and the quantum of investment - National Policies and International treaties related to climate, energy, transport - No of electric charging stations for vehicles - Cost per mile of travel or KW output for various fuels like Diesel, Gasoline, Gas ,Bio-fuels,

Synthetic Fuels, H2, Electricity etc



- 10 -

Step 5: Identify the current and future probabilities for critical events

By continuously monitoring the critical parameters and studying their evolution over time, the critical events are described (Table 2)

Critical Parameters to Monitor Critical Events

GHG / CO2 emission norms implementation schedule

GHG / CO2 national targets are enforced as part of an international agenda

Level of performance, safety and security issues with autonomous car

Performance, safety & security issues for Google Car are resolved

Cost of sensors, actuators and communication devices

Sensors and Communication devices becomes affordable

No of micro grids and investments Electricity is generated largely through micro grids

Ratio of charging time of battery to time for fuelling

Charging Time for Batteries remains significant

No of fuel lines laid for alternative fuels Infrastructure for alternative fuels is in place

Table 2 – Critical Parameters and Critical Events for the Scenario “Climate Control becomes critical”.

Critical events are assigned probability of occurrence both for today and in the future. This serves the purpose of capturing all the available information to feed into technology planning activity. For instance, the declaration of policy initiatives like National Electric Mobility Mission 2025 in India, increases the probability of having electric charging infrastructure over next 10 years. The probability of each event hypothesis should be captured through internal and external sources. It may involve capturing and verifying inputs from business, strategy, technical leadership, suppliers, academics, government and external agencies to analyze and agree on probability values. The individual probability values might be subjective in nature; however the collection from wider sources can help bring the consensus related to the probabilities or underlying uncertainties. The probability values are continuously monitored and updated dynamically.

A radar plot, with hypothetical current and future probability values for the critical events, is depicted in Figure 5 for a qualitative analysis. The combined analysis of such a radar plot along with technology portfolio options which is explained in next step of the approach enables industry players to select a few critical technologies to plan, develop and lead as long term technology planning efforts.



- 11 -

Figure 5 Radar Plot of Critical Parameters to monitor (representative chart)

Step 6: Develop Technology Themes and Directions based on Future Scenarios

This step involves capturing the new or emerging technology ideas which are most relevant for each scenario. This involves the collection of inputs from multiple sources like research labs reports, science & engineering journal literature, granted patents, recent patent applications, technology innovation blogs etc. The compiled list of technology ideas and characteristics serves the basis for selecting critical technologies for future development.

To ensure that the identified technology development ideas are aligned to the direction of technology evolution, the TRIZ Laws for Technical system evolution can be used. TRIZ predicts that all technologies evolve along the S-curves with increase in the “ideality” till it gets matured or saturated. The further evolution happens by jumping to next S-curve and so on. The laws of technical system evolution provides set of generic principles which can be applied to any technical system to understand it’s status on the S- curve and what specific changes needs to be introduced to move it along the s-curve or jump across the curves (14).



- 12 -

Figure 6 Technology Evolution S-Curves (TRIZ Systematic Innovation)

The TRIZ principles for technical system evolution are

1. Technology follows a life cycle of birth, growth, Maturity and Decline

2. Increase in the “Ideality” of the system

3. Uneven development of subsystems resulting in contradiction

4. Increasing complexity and then simplicity through integration

5. Matching and mismatching of the parts

6. Transition from macrosystem to microsystem using energy fields

7. Decreasing human involvement with increasing automation

Technology Themes for the Scenario “Climate Control Becomes Critical”

Now we proceed to list a few technology themes that will helps us to respond to the scenario of “climate control becomes critical”.

On board carbon storage

o The CO2 generated by the engine will be captured and stored on board to transfer for further sequestration offline. The CO2 can be captured pre-combustion or post combustion using adsorption, absorption and filtration methods.

Absorption: where the exhaust is passed through a liquid into which the

carbon dioxide dissolves.



- 13 -

Membrane separation: where the CO2 is driven through a semi-permeable

membrane to isolate it from other gases, and is then captured.

Adsorption: where the exhaust is filtered through a material to which CO2

selectively adheres without forming a chemical bond

Higher Engine brake thermal efficiency (BTE)

o Higher BTE can be achieved through the following options Low Friction materials Waste Heat Recovery Engine Down-speeding Ultra high pressure injection Homogenous Charge Combustion Ignition Reaction control compression ignition Efficient thermodynamic cycles (e.g Six stroke engine)

Intelligent Engine Controls

o The power train assess the driver and vehicle driving patterns and accordingly guides

the driver through indicators for optimum performance with lower C02 emissions.

o The engine control strategies are adapted towards continuous re-optimization based

on operating conditions, driver’s behaviour, vehicle level parameters etc.

Remanufacturing of engine components

o Remanufacturing involves the design for engine components such that the most worn

out parts can be easily remanufactured for reuse using technologies like metal cladding, intermediate inserts etc. The advanced remanufacturing technologies like Laser metal cladding will restore the part irrespective of the core quality and severity of damage made. For instance, the worn out tip of turbocharger blade can be restored using laser metal cladding process. The remanufactured components are capable of providing exactly the same functionality and same quality standards as that of original parts

Energy Solutions

o The evolution of electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles may challenge the need of the IC engine. In this scenario, the engine manufacturers may become energy solution providers and offer electric power train, advanced batteries, fuel cells control algorithms and vehicle energy management to continue gaining the market share in transportation industry

Step 7: Identify Critical Technology Development Ideas

If we study the critical events depicted in the Radar plot (Figure 5) and base our analysis of evolution on the hypothetical probability data for 2014 and 2025, the following observations can be made on the future scenario of “Climate Control becomes critical”Figure 5:



- 14 -

- There is a high probability that Green House Gas or CO2 emission compliance will be in

effect across developed as well developing nations through international pressures and

agreements. This needs technologies for improving the engine level as well as vehicle level

fuel efficiency

- Sensors and communication technologies becoming affordable opens up multiple technology

opportunities for sensing multiple parameters, close loop feedback, remote diagnostics and

controls

- Given the high probability of battery charging time remaining significant more than the time

for refuelling, the preference for generating electricity onboard will be more compared to pure

electric power train.

- The rising demand of superior products necessities use of technology for achieving comfort,

convenience, reliability, connectedness and ease of use

- Emergence of semi-autonomous or connected cars put lots of thrust on introducing

technologies for making systems more intelligent

- The high probability of electricity generated through micro grid to meet local power needs,

would enable engine manufacturer to position and tailor their product for power generation

application. The ability of IC engine to run on multiple fuels and provide better efficiencies

during part load as full load will make it more attractive compared to the other sources in

micro grid.

Based on our analysis of the critical events and by cross verifying if the evolution is aligned with TRIZ laws of technology evolution, we can recommended the specific areas to focus for technology development. The future (next ten years) technology ideas for the IC engine will include

1. Intelligent IC engines and Telematics

Intelligent IC Engine uses the future trend of low cost sensors and communication devices to demand for superior performance.

- Multiple sensors to sense key engine parameters like torque, cylinder pressure, and temperature, intake and exhaust conditions, Air Fuel Ratio, Turbine speed, acceleration, emissions etc.

- Multiple actuators to control key control variables like fuel injection rate shape, valve timings, boost pressure, compression ratio, number of active cylinders etc.

- Smart control algorithms which continuously sense the key engine parameters and re-optimize the control variables to achieve optimum performance in terms of power, transient response, fuel economy and emissions across all the duty cycle points.

- Telematics module which enables the transfer of key parameters to the remote location for assessing the health of the engine and subsequently providing necessary instructions or assistive control to retain the performance and prevent potential failures.

The engine reduces CO2, NOx, PM, HC emissions, and provides flexibility to suite to multiple applications like on-highway, off-highway and power-generation. It also enhances the ease



- 15 -

of driving, ease to diagnostics, improves performance and reliability toward meeting the future need for superior product. The technology is compatible with electric and semi-autonomous vehicles due to advance controls.

2. Flexi Fuel Engines with Advanced Combustion Strategies

Flexi fuel engine provides flexibility for combusting any hydrocarbon fuel like diesel, gasoline, natural gas, bio-fuels, hydrogen, Syngas etc to generate useful power. The engine has the following elements to achieve its main purpose

- Multiple sensors to sense the type of fuel and quality

- Variable combustion related parameters like Compression Ratio, Air Flow, Injection Rate Shape, Fuel System to allow combustion of multiple fuels within the same architecture.

- A catalytic reformer or fuel additives to pre-treat the fuels for improving desired properties like ignition temperature, lubricity, corrosion potential, tar contents etc

- Multi fuel combustion strategies to achieve superior combustion characteristics through more oxygen rich fuel, changing cetane number, knocking limit, noise, soot etc. by controlling the parameters like quantity of fuels, injection profile, Injection pressure, injection timing, qty of fuel additives etc

- Compatible fuel filters applicable for filtering multiple fuels.

- Composite fuel system with port and direct injection. Injectors with advanced materials to sustain higher temperatures and chemical interaction with different fuels.

- After-treatment catalysts to control tail pipe emissions.

The technology uses low cost sensors and offers the flexibility to use one or more fuels for on-highway, off-highway and power generation application. It meets the future requirements for low CO2 emissions and uses locally available fuel for transportation and distributed power generation

3. Advanced Hybrid Power Train

Fuel cell based power train can be considered as advanced version of hybrid power train utilizing simplified engine rotating at neat constant speed for electricity generation. The advanced power train consists of fuel cells and other sources like renewable for generating electricity and electric motors for driving the wheels. The technology eliminates the need to have IC engine for the system and needs the following elements at system and subsystem level

- Diesel or Gasoline compatible compact Fuel cell (SOFC) and reformer package to generate electricity

- Electric motors with precise torque-speed control (e.g Pulse Width Modulation) and high power density.

- High capacity and compact battery for energy storage

- Compatibility to renewable energy like Solar PV



- 16 -

The technology meets the most probable future scenario requirements for superior products,

CO2 emissions, overcomes battery charging time, utilizes available infrastructure and can be

deployed for direct electricity generation.

Thus we have demonstrated how our seven – steps process helps in analysing FTS - it starts with analysing the seven – forces that drive a scenario and ultimately ends with the recommendation of key technologies that will help us to respond to the future scenario.

Conclusion

A systematic approach for creating and analyzing future technology scenarios (FTS) has been demonstrated. The framework helps to respond to uncertainties, surprises and disruptions in the external environment. Our approach enables compilation of diverse perspectives to develop insights and visualize the likelihood of future scenario around the core technology. The seven – steps process is demonstrated by applying it in the automotive domain and predict FTS for the Internal combustion (IC) engine. We analysed in great detail a future scenario of climate control becoming critical. We identified critical parameters, postulated critical events, assigned hypothetical probabilities and confirmed alignment with TRIZ laws of technology evolution to create insights on future product requirements and user constraints for this future scenario. We concluded our analysis by recommending the technology themes, directions and specific technology development ideas for responding to the future of IC engines. Though we have demonstrated our approach only in the context of automotive industry, the approach can be applied effectively in any other domain. Our seven – forces is a powerful tool for creating insights into future technology scenarios. Our seven – steps process provides a systematic approach to the technology strategists to prepare an adequate response to alternative futures.

References

1. Kupers, Angela Wilkinson and Roland. Living in the Future. HBR. May 2013.

2. Study of Future Engine Oil (First Report): Future Engine Oil Scenario. Koyamaishi, N et. al. 2007-07-23, s.l. : SAE, 1977.

3. The Future of Engine Technology. al., Bernard et. s.l. : SAE, 2001.

4. Diesel Engine Technology Needs for India for the Next Five Years . al, Best et. 2001-28-0008, s.l. : SAE, 2001.

5. Maniyeka, James,McKinsey Global Institute. Disruptive Technologies Advances that will transform life business and Global Economy. 2013.

6. Internal combustion engines:Progress and prospects. Alagumalai, Avinash. s.l. : Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014.

7. UNEP. Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India. s.l. : UNEP.

8. WHO. Climate Risk Management. 2011.

9. Spelman, Caroline. Why Remanufacturing is Essential to UK Economy. s.l. : Reverse Logistics , 2014.

10. MIT CC&ST Program. http://sequestration.mit.edu/. [Online] 2014.



- 17 -

11. Sullivan, John M. CARBON CAPTURE IN VEHICLES:A REVIEW OF GENERAL SUPPORT, AVAILABLE MECHANISMS, AND CONSUMER - ACCEPTANCE ISSUES. s.l. : University of Michigan, 2012.

12. Climate Policies and Transport Sector. s.l. : Ceclia 2050, 2010.

13. Ford, Bill. https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_ford_a_future_beyond_traffic_gridlock#t-807263. A Future Beyond Tranffic gridlock. [Online] March 2011.

14. Leon, Noel. Trends and Patterns of Evolution for Product Innovation. http://www.triz-journal.com/trends-patterns-evolution-product-innovation/. [Online] 2006.

For further reading:

15. ASIRT. Annual Global Road Crash Statistics. http://www.asirt.org. [Online] http://www.asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safety-facts/road-crash-statistics.aspx.

16. Gomes, Lee. MIT Technology Review.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530276/hidden-obstacles-for-googles-self-driving-cars/. [Online] August 2014.

17. Cambell, Richard J. Increasing the Efficiency of Existing Coal-Fired Power Plant. s.l. : Congressional Research Service, December 2013.

18. Marcacci, Silvio. Over 4000 microgrid projects underway. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/over-400-microgrid-projects-underway-en-route-to-40bn-market-19927. [Online] April 2013.

19. McKinsey. What's Driving the Connected Car. http://www.mckinsey.com/. [Online] Sept 2014.

20. MNRE. National Electric Mobility Mission Plan - 2020. [Online] 2014. http://dhi.nic.in/NEMMP2020.pdf.

21. IEA. Natural Gas in India. 2010.

22. Zhang, Wei. Simulation of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell-Based Power Generation Process with CO2 capture. s.l. : University of Waterloo, 2006.

23. FUEL ADULTERATION CONSEQUENCES IN INDIA : A REVIEW. GAWANDE, AMIT P. 3(3), 2013, 161-171, s.l. : Scientifc Reviews and Chemical Composition, 2013.

24. IEA. Natural Gas in India. s.l. : IEA, 2010.

25. Cazzola, Pierpaolo. PRODUCTION COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION FUELS. s.l. : IEA, 2013.

26. Expert-Committee. Auto Fuel Vision and Policy—2025. 2013.

27. Bansal, Gaurav. OVERVIEW OF INDIA’S VEHICLE EMISSIONS CONTROL PROGRAM. s.l. : ICCT, 2013.

28. Pralhad, C.K. The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid. 2010.

29. IBEF. The Indian Infrastructure Sector - Investments, Growth and Prospects. s.l. : IBEF, 2013.



- 18 -

30. MNRE-Reference. Biomass Power and Congeneration Program. [Online] 2012. http://www.mnre.gov.in/schemes/grid-connected/biomass-powercogen.

31. Bullis, Kevin. MIT Technology Review. http://www.technologyreview.com/news/424100/a-car-battery-at-half-the-price/. [Online] May 2011.

32. Majewski, W. Addy. Low temperature combustion. www.dieselnet.com. [Online] 2009.

33. Development of Vehicular Fuel Efficiency Norms and Labeling in India - Uniqueness of Challenging Scenario. et.al, Banerjee. 2009-26-0029, s.l. : SAE, 2009.

34. Musk, Elon. All our patents are belong to you. http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you. [Online] 2014.

Documents

A STRUCTURED APPROACH TO ANALYSE - European Commission · We conclude by recommending the critical technologies that can help us to successfully respond to ... Newland and Henk in