Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
11 1
THE MONT PELERIN SOCIETY
H O O V E R I N S T I T U T I O N • S T A N F O R D U N I V E R S I T Y
FROM THE PAST TO THE FUTURE: IDEAS AND ACTIONS FOR A FREE SOCIETY
A S P E C I A L M E E T I N G
J A N U A R Y 1 5 – 1 7 , 2 0 2 0
TAKING IDEAS TO ACTION IN CENTRAL GOVERNMENTS—THE US CASE
TYLER GOODSPEED
C H A P T E R T H I R T Y - S I X
332
Tyler B. Goodspeed, Council of Economic Advisers *Mont Pelerin Society, Hoover Institution
January 2020
Taking Ideas to Action in Central Governments
33 3
Tyler B. Goodspeed, Council of Economic Advisers *Mont Pelerin Society, Hoover Institution
January 2020
Taking Ideas to Action in Central Governments
Investment and capital stock have risen.
4.2 4.2
2.5
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014:Q2-2016:Q4 Average 2009:Q3-2016:Q4 Trend
2017:Q1-2019:Q3 Actual Projection
Growth in Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment, 2017:Q1–2019:Q3
Compound annual growth rate (percent)
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations.Note: The pre-2017 trend is estimated over a sample from 2009:Q3 through 2016:Q4 and projected into 2017-2019.
4.0
2.6
3.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
Long-Run Average 2009:Q3-2016:Q4Average
Post-TCJA Average
Growth In Capital Services, 1966–2019Average annual growth (percent)
Source: IHS Markit, Council of Economic Advisers.
554
Labor productivity has accelerated.
1.2
0.90.7
1.0
0.2
0.7 0.8 0.8
-0.2
0.1 0.2
-0.5-0.6 -0.7
0.2
1.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
2010:Q1-2016:Q4 2018:Q1-2019:Q3
Growth in Real Output per Employed Person Among Advanced Economies, 2010–19
Compound annual growth (percent)
Sources: Various national statistics offices; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; HaverAnalytics; Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations.Note: Values represent a compound annual growth rate calculated over the given quarters. Growth rates are based off of real GDP divided by seasonally adjusted employment. Employment includes government employees.
1.1
0.9
1.4
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
2009:Q3 - 2016:Q4
2013:Q1 - 2016:Q4
2017:Q1 - 2019:Q3
Nonfarm Business Sector Labor Productivity Growth, 2009–2019
Compound annual growth (percent)Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations.Note: Annual growth rate is calculated for real output per hour of all persons in the nonfarm business sector.
55 5
Wage gains concentrated among recently more marginal workers.
3.0
2.4
3.53.1
4.9
3.5
2.72.52.4
2.5
1.3 1.51.9
2.4
1.82.1
0
2
4
6
Workers Managers NoBachelor's
Bachelor'sor More
Bottom 10% Top 10% AfricanAmerican
White
2017:Q1-2019:Q3 2009:Q3-2016:Q4Growth in Earnings, 2009–19Compound annual growth rate (percent)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations.Note: Data represent a compound annual growth rate for 2009:Q3–2016:Q4 or July 2009–December 2016 and 2017:Q1–2019:Q3 or January 2017–November 2019. For workers and managers, earnings are defined as average weekly earnings. For all other categories, earnings are defined as median usual weekly earnings.
776
Recent wealth gains higher at lower end of the distribution.
1.2
0.0
-0.5
0.4
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
Top 1% Bottom 50%
2009:Q3-2016:Q4 2018:Q1-2019:Q3
Change in Share of Net Worth, 2009–19
Percentage points
Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations.
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
Top 1% Bottom 50%
2009:Q1-2011:Q3 2017:Q1-2019:Q3
Change in Real Net Worth in the First 11 Quarters
Percent
Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations.
10% 13%
47%
-64%
-64%
0
4
8
12
16
Top 1% Bottom 50%
Prior 3 Administrations 2017-2019
Growth in Real Net Worth of the Bottom 50 Percent
Percent
Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations. Note: The blue bar represents the average annual growth across previous administrations' expansion periods. The red bar represents annual growth from 2017:Q1 to 2019:Q3.
1%
15%
4%
8%
1%
77 7
Observed labor market strength exceeds expectations.
2009-2016
2017-2019
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Contraction vs. Expansion of Working Age Labor Force, 2009:Q3–19:Q4 Persons (millions)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations.
1.9
7.1
0
2
4
6
8
CBO Prediction Actual Jobs Created
Predicted vs. Actual New Jobs, 2016:Q4–2019:Q4Jobs (millions)
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Council of Economic Advisers,Author’s calculations.Note: CBO projection represents the final pre-election forecast made in August 2016.
998
Between 1990 and 2016, the Federal government added an average of 50 economically significant regulations each year.
34
55
66
45
61
3439 37 38 35
72
36 39
47 4541
33
44
73
51
70
5449
54 5761
94
22
37
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Economically Significant Regulations by Presidential Year, 1990–2018Number of Rules
Sources: reginfo.gov; George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center.Note: Presidential years begin in February and end in January of the following year. The 2018 final rule count is to date as of September 11, 2019. Rule counts for 2017 and 2018 exclude rules considered deregulatory actions. Prior to 2017, we estimate approximately one deregulatory action per year.
2018
99 9
New regulations added regulatory costs each year from 2000-2016.
2019
-4
1
6
11
16
21
26
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Real Annual Costs of Major Rules, Fiscal Year 2000–19Dollars (billions, 2017)
Sources: OIRA Reports to Congress; Council of Economic Advisers.Note: Calculations based on the cost estimates for years 2000 through 2016 from the most recent OIRA Report to Congress with an estimate for that year, combined with the reported annualized regulatory cost savings for 2017-2019. Negative costs indicate cost savings. Annual cost estimates include all major rules for which both benefits and costs have been estimated.
1 11 110
Progressive deregulation.
2.4
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.3
0
1
2
3
Lowest 20 percent Second 20 percent Third 20 percent Fourth 20 percent Highest 20 percent
Consumer Savings on Prescription Drugs and Internet Access by Household Income QuintileShare of income (percent)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations. Note: Values represent CEA's estimates of consumer savings as a share of their income which applied Consumer Expenditure Survey's quintile and expenditure data to national income data.
1 11 1 11
Progressive deregulation.
2.4
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.3
0
1
2
3
Lowest 20 percent Second 20 percent Third 20 percent Fourth 20 percent Highest 20 percent
Consumer Savings on Prescription Drugs and Internet Access by Household Income QuintileShare of income (percent)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Council of Economic Advisers, Author’s calculations. Note: Values represent CEA's estimates of consumer savings as a share of their income which applied Consumer Expenditure Survey's quintile and expenditure data to national income data.
* Tyler Beck Goodspeed, Council of Economic Advisers. Contact: [email protected]. Theviews expressed in these remarks and slides are the author’s own and do not reflect the views of the Councilof Economic Advisers or the Executive Office of the President of the United States.
1 31 312
TYLER GOODSPEEDCOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSTyler Goodspeed currently serves as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers. He was formerly a junior fellow in Economics at the University of Oxford, and a lecturer in Economics at King’s College London. His primary research and teaching fields are economic and financial history, with secondary interests in political economy.
Prior to earning his PhD from Harvard University in 2014, he received his AB from Harvard summa cum laude in 2008 and from 2008 to 2009 was a Gates Scholar at the University of Cambridge. His second book, Legislating Instability,
examines the effects of unlimited liability and regulatory capture on financial stability in “free banking” Scotland. He also has a recent book, Famine and Finance, on the market for small loans during the Great Famine of Ireland, as well as companion articles in the Journal of Development Economics and World Bank Economic Review.
Goodspeed’s current research focuses on eighteenth- and nineteenth-century British and North American economic history, with particular attention to informal banking and the political economy of financial regulation, as well as long-run economic development. In his first book, Rethinking the Keynesian Revolution, he analyzed the debates between John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek, considering the relevance of those debates to contemporary monetary economics.
1 31 3 13
PAST AS PROLOGUE TO THE FUTURE
An Opening Conversation
Chapter 1. Why Choose Economic Freedom?..................................................................................................................6 George P. Shultz and John B. Taylor
Free to Choose: 1980 to 2020 and the Network
Chapter 2. Introduction to Free to Choose 1980 to 2020 and the Network.........................................................14 Robert Chatfield
Chapter 3. Milton, Rose, me and Poetry.........................................................................................................................16 Robert Chitester
Removing Obstacles on the Road to Economic Freedom: 1947 to 1980
Chapter 4. Removing Obstacles on the Road to Economic Freedom.......................................................................24 Eamonn Butler
Chapter 5. Milton Friedman: The Early Years...............................................................................................................26 Jennifer Burns
Chapter 6. Mont Pelerin 1947........................................................................................................................................32 Bruce Caldwell
Chapter 7. The Road Not Taken of “Nuovo liberalismo”...........................................................................................85 Alberto Mingardi
1 51 514
Spread of Free-Market Ideas in the 1980s
Chapter 8. The Reception of Free to Choose and the Problem of Tacit Presuppositions of Political Economy......................................................................................................................................................102 Peter Boettke
Chapter 9. The Spread of Free-Market Ideas in the 1980s (With a Nod to the Late 1970s)...............131 David Henderson
Chapter 10. Ideas of Freedom and Their Role in Active Policymaking.........................................................142 Condoleezza Rice
Lessons Learned from History for the Future of Freedom
Chapter 11. Assaults on Freedom and Citizenship............................................................................................147 Victor Davis Hanson
Chapter 12. Fed Chair Agonistes..........................................................................................................................152 Amity Shlaes
Chapter 13. Keynes v Hayek: The Four Buts......................................................................................................160 Robert Skidelsky
1 51 5 15
IDEAS FOR A FREE SOCIETY
The Role of Law as Protector of Liberty
Chapter 14. Capitalism, Socialism and Nationalism: Lessons from History..................................................168 Niall Ferguson
Chapter 15. Magna Carta, the rule of law, and the limits on government..................................................200 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Chapter 16. The Commerce Clause, the Takings Clause, and Due Process..................................................208 Douglas Ginsburg
How to Deal with the Reemergence of Socialism
Chapter 17. The rise and fall of environmental socialism: Smashing the watermelon...............................221 Jeff Bennett
Chapter 18. Understanding the left....................................................................................................................226 John Cochrane
Chapter 19. Economic systems between socialism and liberalism and the new threats of neo-interventionism.................................................................................................................................................233 Lars Peder Nordbakken
Measures of Economic Freedom
Chapter 20. Economic Freedom Matters & Charts............................................................................................248 Anthony Kim
1 71 716
Chapter 21. Economic Freedom: Objective, Transparent Measurement.......................................................279 Fred McMahon
Chapter 22. The World Bank’s Doing Business Indicators................................................................................310 Valeria Perotti
Restraining Expansions of Government
Chapter 23. Common Sense Approach to Addressing America’s Entitlement Challenge..........................318 John Cogan
Chapter 24. Key Milestones in Regulation..........................................................................................................339 Susan Dudley
Chapter 25. A Quest for Fiscal Rules...................................................................................................................343 Lars Feld
ACTIONS FOR A FREE SOCIETY
Taking Ideas to Action around the World
Chapter 26. Turning Freedom into Action: Some Reflections on Reforming Higher Education.................371 Ayaan Hirsi Ali
Chapter 27. Culture and the Free Society..........................................................................................................380 Samuel Gregg
1 71 7 17
Chapter 28. Taking Ideas to Action Around the World....................................................................................394 Bridgett Wagner
What Happened in Chile?
Introduction...............................................................................................................................................................402
Chapter 29. Presentation I....................................................................................................................................403 Axel Kaiser
Chapter 30. Presentation II...................................................................................................................................406 Ernesto Silva
Chapter 31. Presentation III..................................................................................................................................409 Arnold Harberger
Taking Ideas to Action: Making the Case for Freedom
Chapter 32. Restoring Liberty for American Indians.........................................................................................411 Terry Anderson
Chapter 33. The Effect of Economic Freedom on Labor Market Efficiency and Performance.................434 Lee Ohanian
Chapter 34. Making the Case for Liberty...........................................................................................................466 Russell Roberts
1 81 818
Taking Ideas to Action in the Private Sector
Chapter 35. Brexit: Taking a Good Idea into Action........................................................................................473 Jamie Borwick
Chapter 36. Taking Ideas to Action in Central Governments—The US Case..............................................476 Tyler Goodspeed
Chapter 37. Ideas and Actions for a Free Society............................................................................................487 Ruth Richardson
Taking Ideas to Action in the Private Sector
Chapter 38. Public Policy, Private Actor..............................................................................................................491 Dominique Lazanski
Chapter 39. Libertarianism is Dysfunctional but Liberty is Great..................................................................508 Joe Lonsdale
Chapter 40. The False Promise of Medicare for All........................................................................................514 Sally Pipes
A Closing Conversation
Chapter 41. China, Globalization, Capitalism, Silicon Valley, Political Correctness, and Exceptionalism.................................................................................................................................................527 Peter Thiel and Peter Robinson