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A Simple Economics of Inequality-Market Design Approach-
Yosuke YASUDA | Osaka University [email protected]
- November 2018 -
1
Global Wealth: Top 1% > Bottom 99 %
3
Each of the remaining 383 million adults (8% of
the world) has net worth above USD 100,000.
This group includes 34 million US dollar million-
aires, who comprise less than 1% of the world’s
adult population, yet own 45% of all household
wealth. We estimate that 123,800 individuals
within this group are worth more than USD 50
million, and 44,900 have over USD 100 million.
The base of the pyramid
Each layer of the wealth pyramid has distinctive
characteristics. The base tier has the most even
distribution across regions and countries (see
Figure 2), but it is also very diverse, spanning
a wide range of personal circumstances. In devel-
oped countries, only about 20% of adults fall
within this category, and for the majority of these
individuals, membership is either transient – due
to business losses or unemployment, for example
– or a lifecycle phenomenon associated with
youth or old age. In contrast, more than 90%
of the adult population in India and Africa falls
within this range. The percentage of the popula-
tion in this wealth group is close to 100% in
some low-income countries in Africa. For many
residents of low-income countries, life member-
ship of the base tier is the norm rather than the
exception.
Mid-range wealth
In the context of global wealth, USD 10,000–
100,000 is the mid-range wealth band. It covers
one billion adults. The average wealth holding is
close to the global average for all wealth levels and
the combined net worth of USD 31 trillion provides
the segment with considerable economic clout.
India and Africa are under-represented in this tier,
whereas China’s share is relatively high. The com-
parison between China and India is very interesting.
India accounts for just 3.4% of those with mid-
range wealth, and that share has changed very little
during the past decade. In contrast, China accounts
for 36% of those with wealth between USD 10,000
and USD 100,000, ten times the number of Indi-
ans, and double the number of Chinese in 2000.
Higher wealth segment of the pyramid
The higher wealth segment of the pyramid – those
with net worth above USD 100,000 – had 215
million adult members at the start of the century.
By 2014, worldwide membership had risen above
395 million, but it declined this year to 383 million,
another consequence of the strengthening US
dollar. The regional composition of the group differs
markedly from the strata below. Europe, North
America and the Asia-Pacific region (omitting China
Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2015
Figure 1
The global wealth pyramid
USD 112.9 trn (45.2%)
34 m(0.7%)
349 m(7.4%)
1,003 m(21.0%)
3,386 m(71.0%)
Number of adults (percent of world population)
Wealthrange
Total wealth(percent of world)
USD 98.5 trn (39.4%)
USD 31.3 trn (12.5%)
USD 7.4 trn (3.0%)
> USD 1 million
USD 100,000 to 1 million
USD 10,000 to 100,000
< USD 10,000
24 Global Wealth Report 2015
Redistributionseems needed…
Redistribution• Transfer from (super) rich to poor seems not work.
• Why is redistribution difficult?
• Efficiency loss: distortion on incentives
• Not so effective: capital gains, tax haven
• Difficult to enforce: lobbying by rich
4
Our Approach• Observation: Redistribution is difficult.
• Our Model: Redistribution is impossible.
• Feasible allocation / welfare evaluation change.
• Better understand limitation of market economy.
• Q: Does market economy accelerate concentration?
• A: Yes (!?): Market tends to reduce trading volume.
5
Summary• We consider the relationship between total surplus
(efficiency) and trade volume (quantity) for homogenous good markets, assuming that
• (i) each buyer/seller has a unit demand/supply
• (ii) redistribution (by the third party) is infeasible.
• Pareto Efficiency with No Side-payment: PENS
• Show that competitive market minimizes # of trades.
6
Example 1• 4 buyers, 4 sellers, unit demand/supply
Buyer B1 B2 B3 B4
Value ($) 10 8 6 4
Seller S1 S2 S3 S4
Cost ($) 3 5 7 9
7
Competitive Eqm. (CE)• Maximizes total surplus, $10: assume p* = 6.5
Buyer B1 B2 B3 B4
Surplus ($) 3.5 1.5 0 0
Seller S1 S2 S3 S4
Surplus ($) 3.5 1.5 0 0
9
Alternative: X • Trade pairs: B1-S3, B2-S2, B3-S1: p = (V+C)/2
Buyer B1 B2 B3 B4
Surplus ($) 1.5 1.5 1.5 0
Seller S1 S2 S3 S4
Surplus ($) 1.5 1.5 1.5 0
11
Alternative: Y• Trade pairs: B1-S4, B2-S3, B3-S2, B4-S1
Buyer B1 B2 B3 B4
Surplus ($) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Seller S1 S2 S3 S4
Surplus ($) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
12
Comparison• Trade-off: efficiency vs. quantity
Allocation CE X Y
Total Surplus 10 9 4
# of Trading Agents 4 (50%) 6 (75%) 8 (100%)
PENS & IR Yes Yes Yes
Unique Price Yes No No
13
Efficiency vs. Quantity
TotalSurplus
TradingVolume
Competitive market maximizes surplus at the expense of trading volume…
Trade-off!
Market Economy• Homogenous good market
• Finitely many buyers and sellers (n total agents)
• Each has unit demand/supply
• Other simplifying assumptions:
A. 0 utility for non-trading agents
B. No buyer-seller pair generates 0 surplus
15
Pareto Efficiency• Allocation z is Pareto efficient if and only if there
exists NO other feasible allocation z’, which makes
• every one weakly better off, and
• someone strictly better off.
• Feasibility: allocation must be achieved through bilateral transactions (buyer-seller pairs).
• Preferences: larger surplus is better (unit demand).
16
Definition of PENS• Consider (bilaterally achievable (BA) allocations):
• (resource constraint), and
• for each agent i, (no trade), or
• there exist agent j such that (bilateral trade).
• Allocation z is called PENS if there exists no allocation z’ in Z such that z’ Pareto dominates z.
• PE allocation (in Z) is always PENS, but NOT vice versa.
• PENS is weaker than standard PE.
17
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Why are X and Y PENS?• CE allocation Pareto dominates neither X nor Y.
Buyer B1 B2 B3 B4
Surplus ($) 3.5 1.5 0 0
Seller S1 S2 S3 S4
Surplus ($) 3.5 1.5 0 0
18
If Side-Payment Possible• Transfer from B1 to B3, B4 and S1 to S3, S4.
Buyer B1 B2 B3 B4
Surplus ($) 3.5 1.5 0 0
Seller S1 S2 S3 S4
Surplus ($) 3.5 1.5 0 0
$0.5
$0.5
$1.5
$1.5
19
X and Y are Not PE• CE + side-payment Pareto dominates X & Y.
Buyer B1 B2 B3 B4
Surplus ($) 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5
Seller S1 S2 S3 S4
Surplus ($) 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5
20
Main Theorem
• Lemma 1Any CE allocation is BA and PENS.
• Theorem 1 The number of trading agents (trading volume) under a CE allocation is minimum among all BA allocations that are PENS.
21
Proof of Theorem 11. Suppose not. Then, there must exist a PENS allocation, say z,
which has strictly fewer (trading) buyer-seller pairs than the competitive equilibrium.
2. There are at least a buyer, say B*, and a seller, S*, who would receive non-negative surplus in CE but cannot engage in any trade, i.e., receive zero surplus, in the alternative allocation z.
3. VB* is (weakly) larger than p* which is also larger than CS*.
4. B*-S* pair generates positive surplus. <= VB* > CS*
5. Contradicts to our presumption that z is PENS.
22
Converse• Theorem 2
Let k be the trading volume under a CE. Then, there exists a BA, PENS and IR allocation that entails strictly larger number of trades than k if and only if
• (i) value of B1 exceeds the cost of Sk+1, and
• (ii) value of Bk+1 exceeds the cost of S1,
where buyer/seller with smaller number has higher value/lower cost.
23
Proof of Theorem 2• If part (<=)
• B1-Sk+1 and Bk+1-S1 pairs generate positive surplus.
• Let B2, …, Bk trade with S2, …, Sk.
• This is a PENS and IR allocation with k+1 trades.
• Only if part (=>)
• If (i) is not satisfied, Sk+1 cannot engage in any profitable trade.
• If (ii) is not satisfied, Bk+1 cannot engage in any profitable trade.
• Impossible to make k+1 (or more) profitable trading pairs.
26
Pioneering Experiments• Connection to the experimental studies:
• Chamberlin (1948) vs. Smith (1962)
• Chamberlin, E. H. (1948). “An experimental imperfect market.” - The Journal of Political Economy, 95-108.
• Smith, V. L. (1962). “An experimental study of competitive market behavior.” - The Journal of Political Economy, 111-137.
29
Pioneering Experiments• Chamberlin (1948) vs. Smith (1962)
• In Chamberlin, buyers and sellers engage in bilateral bargaining, transaction price is recorded on the blackboard as contracts made; single period.=> Imperfect market: Excess quantities
• In Smith’s double auctions, each trader’s quotation is addressed to the entire trading group one quotation at a time; multiple periods (learning).=> Converge to perfectly competitive market
30
Excess Quantity• Chamberlin’s excess quantity puzzle:
• Sales volume > equilibrium quantity => 42/46
• Sales volume = equilibrium quantity => 4/46
• Sales volume < equilibrium quantity => 0/46
• “price fluctuation render the volume of sales normally greater than the equilibrium amount which is indicated by supply and demand curves”
• Our results may account for Chamberlin’s puzzle.
32
Extension: Matching• Stable matching (Core) induce minimum pairs.
=> Examples 2a, 3, 4a
• # of Stable matching pairs not always minimum. => Examples 2b, 4b
• NTU — Anything can happen. (PE = PENS)
• TU — Assortative stable matching is minimum.
33
NTU: Example 2a• 2 doctors, 2 hospitals
• Unique Stable Matching: D1-H1 (D2, H2 single)
• An Alternative: D1-H2, D2-H1 <= PE and IR
=> All agents find their mates under non-stable outcome.
Agent D1 D2 H1 H2
1st H1 H1 D1 D1
2nd H2 - D2 D2
34
NTU: Example 2a• 2 doctors, 2 hospitals (H2: rural hospital)
• Unique Stable Matching: D1-H1 (D2, H2 single)
• An Alternative: D1-H2, D2-H1 <= PE and IR
=> All agents find their mates under non-stable outcome.
Agent D1 D2 H1 H2
1st H1 H1 D1 D1
2nd H2 - D2 D2
35
NTU: Example 2b• 2 doctors, 2 hospitals
• Unique Stable Matching: D1-H2, D2-H1
• An Alternative: D1-H1 (D2, H2 single) <= PE and IR
=> All agents find their mates under stable outcome.
Agent D1 D2 H1 H2
1st H1 H1 D2 D1
2nd H2 - D1 D2
36
NTU: Example 2b• 2 doctors, 2 hospitals
• Unique Stable Matching: D1-H2, D2-H1
• An Alternative: D1-H1 (D2, H2 single) <= PE and IR
=> All agents find their mates under stable outcome.
Agent D1 D2 H1 H2
1st H1 H1 D2 D1
2nd H2 - D1 D2
37
TU: Assignment Game• Finitely many workers and firms
• Each matched with at most one agent
• Receive 0 utility if unmatched.
• Each pair yields surplus by production.
• Monetary transfers allowed (UT: Transferable Utility)
• Paris arbitrarily divide production surplus.
• No side-payment beyond each worker-firm pair
38
Result in TU Case• Theorem 3
The number of worker-firm pairs under the assortative stable matching is minimum among all BA outcomes that are PENS and IR.
• Def. of assortative stable matching (ASM)
• Agents in both sides are linearly ordered. (Surplus Aij is weakly decreasing in i and j.)
• Matching results in 1st-1st, 2nd-2nd, and so on.
39
Proof (Theorem 3)1. Suppose not. Then, there must exist a PENS and individually rational
outcome, say T, which has strictly fewer worker-firm pairs than ASM.
2. There are at least a worker, say W*, and a firm, F*, that would receive non-negative surplus in ASM but cannot engage in any trade, i.e., receive zero surplus, in the alternative outcome T.
3. Production surplus between W* and F* must be positive.
1. Both W* and F* are (weakly) smaller than k. <= (2)
2. AW*F* must be (weakly) larger than Akk, a positive surplus. <= (1)
4. Contradicts to the presumption that T is PENS.
40
Application: Example 3• Revisit (reformulate) Example 1 <= Aij := Vi - Cj
• Core: B1-S1, B2-S2 or B1-S2, B2-S1
• X: B1-S3, B2-S2, B3-S1 Y: B1-S4, B2-S3, B3-S2. B4-S1
S1 S2 S3 S4
B1 7 5 3 1
B2 5 3 1 -1
B3 3 1 -1 -3
B4 1 -1 -3 -5
41
Application: Example 3• Revisit (reformulate) Example 1
• Core: B1-S1, B2-S2 or B1-S2, B2-S1
• X: B1-S3, B2-S2, B3-S1 Y: B1-S4, B2-S3, B3-S2. B4-S1
S1 S2 S3 S4
B1 7 5 3 1
B2 5 3 1 -1
B3 3 1 -1 -3
B4 1 -1 -3 -5
42
TU: Example 4a• 2 workers, 2 firms
• Unique Core: W1-F1 (W2, F2 single)
• Alternative: W1-F2, W2-F1 <= PE and IR
F1 F2
W1 10 4
W2 4 -5
43
TU: Example 4a• 2 workers, 2 firms
• Unique Core: W1-F1 (W2, F2 single)
• Alternative: W1-F2, W2-F1 <= PE and IR
F1 F2
W1 10 4
W2 4 -5
(5 - 5)
(2 - 2) (2 - 2) 44
TU: Example 4b• 2 workers, 2 firms
• Unique Core: W1-F2, W2-F1
• Alternative: W1-F1 (W2, F2 single) <= PE and IR
F1 F2
W1 10 8
W2 4 -5
45
TU: Example 4b• 2 workers, 2 firms
• Unique Core: W1-F2, W2-F1
• Alternative: W1-F1 (W2, F2 single) <= PE and IR
F1 F2
W1 10 8
W2 4 -5
(5 - 5)
(7 - 1) (1 - 3)
46
Summary: Main Results• Equilibrium allocation may be seen most unequal:
• The quantity of good traded under the competitive market equilibrium is minimum among all feasible allocations that are PENS.
• The converse result also holds:
• Unless a demand or supply curve is completely flat, there always exists a feasible allocation that is PENS , IR and entailing strictly larger number of trades than that of the equilibrium quantity.
47
Heterogenous Goods• Generalization to assignment games
(TU game in one-to-one matching markets).
• Theorem 3 The number of buyer-seller pairs under the assortative stable matching is minimum among all BA outcomes that are PENS.
• The assortative matching assumption is often imposed in labor markets or marriage markets.
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Last Remarks• Should we aim to design/achieve “competitive” market?
• YES: Efficiency — the greatest happiness
• NO: Equality — of the minimum number
• Trade-off: efficiency vs. equality
• Better understand why market accelerates concentration.
• Redistribution is crucial when market is competitive.
=> May better consider equitable market design.
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New!
Many Thanks :)Yosuke YASUDA | Osaka University
Any comments and questions are appreciated.
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