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A Random WalkToward Simulation Accuracy, Partnering
and Probity
Priscilla ElfreyKennedy Space Center
IT/C1, Florida 32899
A Long Road…
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Clarke
For simulation this means advanced technology and expanded networks
Plus greater attention to education, training, professionalism, high ethical standards and practices.
Muddling along a random path…
Past movement and direction cannot predict future movement or direction
Adapt and approach complex issues incrementally
Three random paths that may ( or may not) converge– Technical Criteria Concerns– Partnering– Truth and Falsity
Criteria Concerns Raised at SimSummit 2002
Importance of criteria that would
– Confirm or deny value of products or practitioners
– Promote continuous efforts to improve fidelity, interoperability, accessibility and utility as perceived by the customer
Value of Criteria
Essential ( Go or no go) or desirable (prioritized) promote– Creative approaches to problem-solving– Good question, “How best can we…?”– Options– Solution-mindedness– Questions that question the questions – “What if?” and “What next?”– Appropriate roles– Means for acquiring resources
Essential NASA criteria
Accuracy, accuracy, accuracy. Safety and desired outcomes Do away with expensive prototypes where
total production run is a single unit. Current limits mean lack of capability to
perform micro-level analysis of large complex processes and methods.
Spacecraft generally spend more time on the ground than in Space
Life cycle cost containment significant Drive out design changes before building
– Less complex, easier to repair, more friendly to operator
– Reduce errors, waste, rework,training time, improve quality
While technology advances--life of large,often unique, systems, lengthen
Key to Simulation’s Credibility and Acceptance
* Accuracy, accuracy, accuracy No Good Housekeeping Seal of
Approval, no “E-pinions” Good data, transparent validation and
verification Insights into optimization efficiencies
– Exact tolerances, flexibility,accessibility,– Operator assessment,cost, performance
Would hyper-real time simulation mean better design?
Simulation is data plus senses Would it mean improved design capability --
better decision making -- as people experience the work not just look at and analyze it?
Proven in battle-- to be tested in an advanced engineering environment?
What research exists? How can we know?
Simulation Changes the Way We Know Truth
Constructs world in one way or another, ideological basis, alters, creates new concepts of what is real;values some things above others
Issue of illusion haunts us– Puppet, god, manipulator, con artist?- Falsity– Makes the engineer uneasy
Never neutral-- imposes responsibility
Simulation and Team Leadership
Attracting partners/ growing in the process– USTDC, NCS, SCS, SISO, NTSA– Local, regional, national, international– Digital Media, Games industry………….
Advancing technology and its sense of reality involves a growing mix– People, talents and needs– Integrating domain and technical expertise– Suggests other random--and surprising-- paths
