1

A PERSPECTIVE ON ONLINE ADVERTISING AND MEDIA PLANNING

Heuristic

Is any approach to problem solving, learning, or discovery that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be optimal or perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals.

1. Cognitive Dissonance

2. Confirmation bias

3. Availability bias

7

THE STATE OF DIGITAL…

…and its continued rise

$659 billion $433 billion

$74 billion $18 billion

What would happen if digital wasn’t as powerful as the investment growth

indicates ? There is a lot at stake

• 20 years experience: 120+ clients, 500+ projects

• Client base at c.£58billion revenue

Insurance

Energy Grocery Retail

DIY Retail Pharmaceutical

Automotive

Hygiene/Toiletries

Money Transfer

Charities Travel & Tourism

FMCG Entertainment

A sample of sectors with recent projects…

So we decided to look into it………

14

1,00

0,38 0,32 0,29 0,24

TV RADIO PRESS OOH DIGITAL

Ebiquity Benchmarks: Average ROI Index

3x

Source: Ebiquity database 2008-2016

Cognitive Dissonance Our beliefs might be wrong and these are hard to change.

How many of you here today feel your business would support the case to REDUCE marketing investment in digital advertising?

Hypothetical question:

0 5

15

10

25

5

40

Client AOR ATD DSP Tech/Data fees Exchange Publisher95% 80% 70% 55% 60%

VALUE REDUCTION

*WFA member survey: Oct 2014

40

20

20

Publisher Non-human traffic View ability*

c.65% c.75% Advertiser value loss

NB excludes ad blockers, out-of-target etc

But how is so much money being spent on something that isn’t working well for many

advertisers?

Confirmation Bias We look for evidence that supports

our existing view of the world

Media usage is not the same media effectiveness

Availability Bias We’re measuring the wrong things!

And it takes more effort to measure the right things

Typical Model ‘Dynamic’ Model Helps you understand the Long-Term

Base Base

Short Term Media

Price

Promotions

Base

Long Term Media The Brand Metrics which

really matter

Macro Micro Nano

Integrated modelling system

Econometric modelling

Modelled digital

attribution

Base

Broadcast media

Digital media

TV

Social

Search

Display

Macro Micro Nano

“Measurement is fabulous. Unless you’re busy measuring what’s easy to measure as opposed to what’s important”

Brand versus short-term

Business targets

Long / short-term goals

Right metrics, avoid easy measurement

Consistent framework but customised tactics (macro, micro, nano)

How to plan for media effectiveness

But whilst companies expect to invest more typically diverting spend from broadcast media,

where is the evidence that this is the right path?

0

25

50

75

100

TV Print VOD OOH DigitalDisplay

0

25

50

75

100

Radio Press TV Digital Display PPC

0

25

50

75

100

TV Press Dig Video Braodcast VOD0

25

50

75

100

TV Radio Press OOHDigital DisplayPaid Search VOD

AUTO RETAIL

TRAVEL FMCG

Source: Ebiquity Marketing Effectiveness project 2015-2017

Share of profit

62.5% Share of spend

53.6%

Outdoor Press Radio TV Display VOD TV Spons

Source: Ebiquity Marketing Effectiveness

Relative Price New

launches

Capacity

Service

Competitors

Economy

-ve/+ve PR

Weather Seasonality

Consumer trends

Sponsorship

Online

Outdoor

Press

Radio

TV

Promotion

Attribution quantifies the impact of

all the factors (not just media) to the business

outcome

Econometric modelling

‘Digital Attribution’

Macro Micro

Base

Broadcast media

Digital media

Device

Placement

Strategy

Site

Creative

Digital media

Base

Broadcast media

Digital media

Impact from TV Impact from other offline media Impact from online media Base

Digitally modelled in detail

TV

Online Media

Base

Paid Search

Direct to Site

Final Business Metric

Sales/Order Offline Media

Media channel

Media impact both direct to site and on search

Media impact both modelled on offline and online channels

Full media impact across the customer journey

Brand Advertisin

g

Brand Advertisin

g

Direct Comms

Brand Advertisin

g

Consideration

Brand Image

Brand Personalit

y

Word of Mouth

Advocacy NPS

Quality

Typical econometrics measurement Typical brand tracking measurement

Short Term Sales or Loyalty

Brand Advertisin

g

Changes in Consumer Perceptions

Short Term Sales

Long Term Consideration and Sales

Advertising

Investment

Thank you