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A MODEL FOR THE INTEGRAL PLANNING OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS AND NATURAL
GAS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS
R. Nieva, J. A. Hernández, J. L. Ceciliano, E. de la Torre
Instituto de Investigaciones Eléctricas
Presented at the IAEE Mexico North American Conference
21 October 2003
México City
CONTENTS
BACKGROUND
THE MODEL:
OBJECTIVE
SCOPE
MATHEMATICAL NATURE OF THE PROBLEM AND SOLUTION TECHNIQUES
APPLICATION EXPERIENCE
AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
AN APLICATION EXAMPLE
BACKGROUNDTHE NEED FOR THE INTEGRAL PLANNING OF ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION AND NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS
INCREASED USE OF NATURAL GAS IN ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
LARGE ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN BOTH TYPES OF NETWORKS
SITING DECISIONS OF GENERATION CAPACITY LEADING TO LOWER OVERALL INVESTMENT + OPERATION COSTS
A PREVIOUS MODEL
PEGyT: A MODEL FOR THE LONG-TERM PLANNING OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION CAPACITIES
NO EXPLICIT CONSIDERATION OF NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
SCOPE OF THE MODELA TOOL FOR THE LONG TERM PLANNING OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY
TECHNOLOGY SELECTION, AND DETERMINATION OF SIZE, LOCATION AND INSTALLATION DATES OF THE REQUIRED NEW GENERATION CAPACITY
MINIMIZING THE PRESENT VALUE SUM OF:
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION COSTS
NEW GENERATION CAPACITY COSTS
NEW ELECTRICTY TRANSMISSION CAPACITY AND OPERATION COSTS
NEW NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION CAPACITY AND OPERATION COSTS
SCOPE OF THE MODEL
GUIDELINE PARAMETERS AND CONSTRAINTS • RESERVE MARGIN & OPERATING RESERVE • LENGTH OF PLANNING HORIZON• DISCOUNT RATE• INVESTMENT & EXPANSION CONSTRAINTS
EXISTING INFRAESTRUCTURE• ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION & TRANSMISSION NETWORK• NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION NETWORK• PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF NATURAL GAS SOURCES
CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN
• ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION & TRANSMISSION
• NATURAL GAS TRANSPORT
INVESTMENT AND OPERATIONAL COST ESTIMATES
Long Term Planning
Model(PEGyT II)
CAPACITY ADDITION AND DECOMMISSION PROGRAMS
TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR CAPACITY EXPANSION
SCENARIO DEFINITION • DEMAND PROJECTIONS (ELECTRICITY & NATURAL GAS FOR INDUSTRIAL USE)• FUEL COST TRENDS• TECHNOLOGY COST TRENDS
MODEL FEATURES
LARGE SCALE, MIXED-INTEGER, NONLINEAR, MULTISTAGE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM
SOLUTION TECHNIQUES:
COMBINATION OF MODERN HEURISTICS (EVOLUTIONARY PROGRAMMING) AND MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING TECHNIQUES
SOLUTION SCHEME: AN EVOLUTIONARY PROGRAMMING APPROACH
• A set of initial plans for the expansion of electric power generation capacity is formed. These plans may be either the result of other planning models or “expert judgment”, or may be randomly generated
Initial “population” of proposed
expansion plans
Evaluation ofexpansion plans
• For each proposed plan, the required new transmission and NG transport capacities are determined and the objective function evaluated
• The objective function is the present value sum of investments, variable production costs of electricity and NG transport. Other objective functions may be adopted, such as the “maximum regret” defined over a set of possible scenarios.
Creation of new,alternative plans
(offspring)
• One or more alternative plans are obtained from each individual in the current population of candidate plans
• Alternative plans are obtained by introducing few changes in the parent individual. The changes may be selected either by a random process or heuristic rules, which may be based on sensitivity measuresEvaluation of new
expansion plans
Competition and Selection
• The size of the population of candidate plans is maintained by selection of the best and elimination of the worst plans
Convergence test
PN Set of best solution plans
SOLUTION SCHEMEEVALUATION STEP: A MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH
• Electricity production cost are computed for each year in the planning horizon, by solving a “Hydro-Thermal Coordination Problem” with electricity transmission and NG transportation constraints (an LP programming problem)
• Cost estimates of required new transmission and NG transport capacities are calculated at incremental cost of expansion
Optimal transmission expansion
Optimal NG transport
expansion
• A sequence of nonlinear programming problems is solved (nonlinear objective function and linear constraints)
A PROPOSED PLAN FOR GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION
Calculation of variable production costs
Calculation of theobjective function
• The objective function is the present value sum of fixed and variable costs
APPLICATION EXPERIENCE
THE NEW MODEL (PEGyT II) HAS BEEN APPLIED TO SEVERAL CASE STUDIES
THE MEXICAN NORTHWEST ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
THE MEXICAN INTERCONNECTED ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
COMPARISON OF SOLUTIONS (NEW VS OLD MODEL) SHOW:
LESS CONCENTRATION OF NEW ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY; SAME TRENDS (TECHNOLOGY, SIZE, LOCATION AND INSTALLATION DATES)
REDUCED REQUIREMENTS OF NEW INTERREGIONAL TRANSMISSION CAPACITY, SAME TRENDS
SLOW CONVERGENCE
80-100 HOURS (PENTIUM IV, 1.4GHZ)
AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
REDUCING COMPUTATION TIME
POSSIBLE SOLUTION: PARALELL COMPUTATION
THE “EVALUATION” OF PROPOSED “INDIVIDUALS” (CANDIDATE GENERATION EXPANSION PLANS) IS COMPUTATIONALLY EXPENSIVE
EVALUATION OF INDIVIDUALS IS AMENABLE TO PARALELL COMPUTATION
APPLICATION EXAMPLE
THE MEXICAN INTERCONNECTED ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
PLANNING HORIZON: 2002-2025
ALL DATA TAKEN FROM PUBLIC REFERENCES: NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL
ELECTRIC NETWORK REPRESENTATION: 32 REGIONS, 40 INTERREGIONAL TIES
TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS FOR CAPACITY EXPANSION:
9 TYPES OF THERMOELECTRIC GENERATING UNITS
14 HIDROELECTRIC POWER PROJECTS
ELECTRIC INTERREGIONAL TIES AT 230 KV AND 400 KV
NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION NETWORK: 96 NODES AND 101 LINKS
NATURAL GAS SOURCES: 6 NATIONAL, 4 BORDER INTERCONNECTIONS, 1 LNG FACILITY
APPLICATION EXAMPLE
THE MEXICAN INTERCONNECTED ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
(2002-2025)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Years
MW
atts
Thermo Hydro Maximum Demand
Natural gas 80%
Diesel 1.34%
Coal 5.9%Oil Bunker 10.1%
Nuclear 1.1%Geothermic 0.8%
*Thermoelectric generation capacity : 127,014 MWatts
FUEL MIX FOR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION IN 2005
PROJECTED DEMAND GROWTH AND ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION CAPACITY
APPLICATION EXAMPLE
THE MEXICAN INTERCONNECTED ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
(2002-2025)
MEXICAN ELECTRIC SYSTEM
REGIONS
Transmission Capacity in 2002 Reinforcement of Transm. Capacity
INTERREGIONAL TRANSMISSION CAPACITY
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
SNO
R-S
SUR
SSU
R-M
OC
H
MAZ
A-M
OC
H
MAZ
A-LA
GU
MAZ
A-G
UAD
CH
IH-J
UAR
LAG
U-C
HIH
LAG
U-M
ON
T
RIO
E-C
HIH
RIO
E-M
OTY
MO
TY-R
EYN
MO
TY-H
UAS
HU
AS-O
RIE
MAN
Z-G
UAD
GU
AD-S
LPO
GU
AD-B
AJI
LAG
U-S
LPO
BAJI
-SLP
O
LCAR
-BAJ
I
LCAR
-GU
AD
BAJI
-CEN
T
LCAR
-CEN
T
OR
IE-C
ENT
ACAP
-CEN
T
OR
IE-T
EMA
LER
M-G
RIJ
TEM
A-G
RIJ
MIN
A-G
RIJ
TEM
A-M
INA
LER
M-M
ERI
MER
I-CAN
C
MER
I-CH
ET
MEX
I-TIJ
U
TIJU
-EN
SE
CC
ON
-LPA
Z
LPAZ
-CAB
O
SNO
R-J
UAR
HU
AS-S
LPO
MO
TY-S
LPO
INTERREGIONAL TIES
MW
2002 2025
EXISTING (2002) AND ADDITIONAL TRANSMISSION CAPACITY (2025)
APPLICATION EXAMPLE
THE MEXICAN INTERCONNECTED ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
(2002-2025)
C entros importa dores Centros productores Refuerzos de C apacidad de Transporte
GNL1000 MMPCD
SISTEMA NACIONAL DE GASODUCTOS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
SNO
RSS
UR
MO
CH
MAZ
AJU
ARC
HIH
LAG
RIO
EM
OTY
REY
NH
UAS
GD
LAM
ANZ
SLPO BA
JILC
ARC
ENT
OR
IEAC
APTE
MA
MIN
AG
RIJ
LER
MM
ERI
CAN
CC
HET
MEX
ITI
JUEN
SEC
CO
NLP
AZC
ABO
BUSES
MW
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MM
cf/d
Generation Capacity based on NG Consumption of NG
REGIONAL ALLOCATION OF NATURAL GAS BASED ELECTRIC POWER
GENERATION CAPACITY
EXISTING AND ADDITIONAL NATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION CAPACITY
APPLICATION EXAMPLE
THE MEXICAN INTERCONNECTED ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM
(2002-2025)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Years
MM
cf/d
CACTUS CDPEMEX REYNOSA POZARICA LAVENTA MATAPIONC
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Years
MM
cf/d
REYNOSA JUAREZ BAJACAL ALTAMIRA NACO
NATIONAL PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS IMPORTS
THANK YOU
