A MACROPERSPECTIVE. CONTINUITY AND CHANGE CONTINUITIES—entails broad themes or concerns persisting over time

A MACROPERSPECTIVE

CUBAN FOREIGN ELATIONS

UNDER RAÚL

Michael Erisman

CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

CONTINUITIES—entails broad themes or concerns persisting over time.

CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

CHANGE—entails variables such as time, place, and strategies/tactics involved in promoting/protecting the continuities

CONTINUTIES(promoting and protecting)

• Economic Security

• International Stature (soft power)

• Effective Sovereignty

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

Whatever potential might have existed for dramatic policy transformations as Fidel moved into the background has not, for the most part, materialized. Raúl’s style is more low-key and pragmatic than that of his charismatic brother, but the substance of Cuba’s foreign affairs agenda has not changed radically.

ECONOMIC SECURITY(an overview of growth

plus diversification)

• Macroeconomic Performance (measured by GDP growth rates)

ECONOMIC SECURITY(growth plus diversification)

• Macroeconomic Performance (GDP growth rates)

• International Economic Relations

– Regional diversification of trade

W. Eu-rope

18.3%

E. Eu-rope 3.3%

Asia 12.4%

Africa2.5%

Amer-icas

63.5%

Regional Trade Profile, 2012

W. Europe, 33.2 %

E. Eu-

rope 5%.8

Asia 22.2%

Africa 4.5%

Americas (minus

Venezuela)

34.3%

Regional Trade Profile, 2012




– Regional diversification of trade

– Diversification of export product menu

Sugar = 76% Nickel = 7% Tourism = 4%

Services = 49% Tourism =19% Nickel = 12% (Sugar = 2%)

Services = 37% Other Merchan = 19% Tourism = 15% Nickel = 9%




− Regional diversification of trade

– Diversification of export menu

– Diversification of trading partners

Prior to the 1990s, approximately 85% of Cuba’s foreign trade was with the USSR and Soviet-dominated Eastern European countries. There was virtually no trade with Latin American countries (except Mexico) and relatively small amounts with Western European nations.

Cuba’s Primary Trading Partners, 2006 and 2012

2006 2012

Country Thousands Country Thousands of Pesos Of Pesos

TOTAL (ranked) Venezuela 2,641,210 Venezuela 8,562,849 China 1,815,101 China 1,695,900 Spain 1,016,533 Spain 1,156,086 Canada 896,985 Canada 938,295 Netherlands 855,977 Netherlands 791,811

Percent of TOTAL (ranked) Venezuela 21.26 Venezuela 44.19 China 14.61 China 8.75 Spain 8.18 Spain 5.97 Canada 7.22 Canada 4.84 Netherlands 6.89 Netherlands 4.09




−Regional diversification of trade



– Special Venezuelan Relationship




−Regional diversification of trade



– Special Venezuelan Relationship

– Oil A potential “silver bullet”

RECENT RAULISTA INITIATIVES

• Expanding Brazilian relations

• New foreign investment law

INTERNATIONAL STATURE

• Policy Manifestations

– Developmental aid programs (especially education and health care)

Cuban Overseas Medical Personnel



– Developmental aid programs (esp education and health care)

– Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA)



– Developmental aid programs (esp education and health care)

– Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) leadership

– CELAC (Latin American and Caribbean Economic Community) leadership

EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY

• Litmus test—ability to frustrate Washington’s hostility

PASSED

• Enhanced economic security + Solid international stature = strengthening of effective sovereignty

• Bottom line -- Cuba’s effective sovereignty does not currently appear to be in any serious jeopardy

CONCLUSION

THANK YOU VERY MUCH

Documents

A MACROPERSPECTIVE. CONTINUITY AND CHANGE CONTINUITIES—entails broad themes or concerns persisting over time