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A look into automotive retail inventory of Plug‐in Electric Vehicles
Jamie DaviesJavier DeLeon
Prepared for PH&EV Research Symposium
November 12th, 2014
Retail Supply Concerns• We sometimes hear from consumers
• Not enough cars• Not enough selection
• We kind of suspect dealers prefer to sell what they have on the lot
How does supply interact with the market• Does product availability on the sales floor influence sales?• How much product do you need? Variety vs. total?
Background• OEMs build cars, dealers sell them • OEM production cycles vary • Policy guiding supply to some markets• Very good data on automaker production and shipments from factories,
but nothing at the State or individual dealer level “tires on the ground”
Platform and dataset
• Automated daily inventory collection from dealerships
• Cleaning and management; we do it; it’s a PAIN (thanks, Jav!)• 90% plus dealerships; missing small dealers with SERIOUS legacy IMS– Not all IMS are the same; had to develop some serious IP to automate
• Inventory, aggregated from bottom up. • Estimate sales from relative changes in daily inventory.
New car dealer inventory dataWe can provide detailed, longitudinal information on the retail inventory of PEVs for each dealership. From changes in inventory, estimate the sales by dealership and then
provide days supply for each dealership and the entire state.
0
400
800
1200
Nissan Leaf re
tail inventory
(# of cars on
dealer lots)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Alhambra Nissan
Antio
ch Nissan
Nissan
of B
akersfield
Buen
a Park Nissan
Nissan
of B
urlingame
Carson
Niss
anPalm
Springs Nissan
Cerrito
s Nissan
Chico Nissan
Pedd
er Niss
anPu
ente Hills N
issan
Nissan
of C
lovis
Serram
onte Nissan
Corona
Nissan
Conn
ell N
issan
Hanlees Davis Nissan
Downe
y Nissan
Dublin Niss
anMossy Nissan
El Cajon
Ross Nissan
Nissan
of Elk Grove
Mossy Nissan
Escon
dido
McCrea Nissan
Mom
entum Nissan
of Fairfield
Nissan
of Folsom Lake
Fontana Nissan
Prem
ier N
issan
of Fremon
tLithia Nissan of Fresno
OC Nissan Garde
n Grove
Garde
na Nissan
Glend
ale Nissan
Power Nissan
of Sou
th Bay
Hayward Nissan
Surf City
Nissan
OC Nissan Irv
ine
Torre Nissan
Hoo
man
Nissan
of Lon
g Be
ach
Nissan
of D
owntow
n Los An
geles
Universal City
Nissan
Razzari N
issan
Daland
Niss
anNissan
of M
issio
n Hills
Central V
alley Nissan
Napa Nissan
Inc
Mossy Nissan
National City
Mossy Nissan
Oceanside
Empire Niss
anStadium Nissan
Pacific Nissan
Antelope
Valley Nissan
North Bay Nissan
Mossy Nissan
Pow
ayCrow
n Nissan
Boardw
alk Nissan
Hanlees Hilltop Nissan
Raceway Nissan
Riverside Nissan
Future Nissan
of R
oseville
Maita Nissan
of Sacramen
toMossy Nissan
Kearny Mesa
Nissan
Infin
iti San
Francisc
oPrem
ier N
issan
of San
Jose
Coast N
issan
Santa Ba
rbra Niss
anSteven
s Creek Nissan
Santa Cruz Nissan
Nissan
of Santa Rosa
Cardinale Nissan
First N
issan
of Sim
i Valley
Stockton
Nissan
Nissan
of Sun
nyvale
Quality Nissan of Tem
ecula
Nissan
of Tho
usand Oaks
Tracy Nissan
Tustin Niss
anNissan
of V
acaville
Nissan
of V
alen
cia
Vallejo Niss
anMiller Nissan
of V
an Nuys
Valley Hi N
issan
Nissan
of V
isalia
Dirito Brothe
rs Nissan
of W
alnu
t Creek
West C
ovina Nissan
Keyes W
oodland Hills Nissan
Vehicle Sales Est. by
dealer June Leaf Sales
July Leaf SalesAugust Leaf SalesSeptember Leaf SalesOctober Leaf Sales
From changes in inventory, estimate the sales by dealership and then provide days supply for each dealership and the entire state.
Sales estimate from daily changes in new car dealer inventory
Retail supply of vehicles within CA
0
20
40
60
80
100
July 1, 2013 July 29, 2013 August 26, 2013 September 23, 2013 October 21, 2013
Cal
iforn
ia R
etai
l Inv
ento
ry(D
ays S
uppl
y of
veh
icle
s)
Nissan LEAF Chevrolet Volt
30 to 60 days of retail supplyis typically “healthy”
October 2014 days’ of retail inventory by brand
0
20
40
60
80
100Fiat Chrysler
Ford GM
NORT
H AM
ERICA…
Hond
aHy
undai
Kia
Mazda
Mitsub
ishi
Nissan
Subaru
Toyota
ASIA/PAC
IFIC TOTA
LAu
diBM
WDa
imler
Jaguar Land Ro
ver
Porsche
Volksw
agen
Volvo
Days’ of retail sup
ply
Does retail supply of vehicles affect sales rate? That’s hard to say because of expected relationship
between supply and demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
July 1, 2013 July 29, 2013 August 26, 2013 September 23, 2013 October 21, 2013
Cal
iforn
ia R
etai
l Inv
ento
ry(D
ays S
uppl
y of
veh
icle
s)
Nissan LEAF Chevrolet Volt
Period of supply constraint by OEM. Nissan battery facility problems. Demand and supply not “endogenous”
Weak correlation between days’ of retail supply and sales rate (Leaf)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Correlation Co
efficient
Days of retail inventory
29‐1946 (+) 45‐40 39‐35 34‐30
Retail supply limitedby battery production –NOT consumer demand
Weak correlation between days’ of retail supply and sales rate (Leaf)
• While weak, there is a relationship. Based on previous work it seems like the variety of model choice is more important than actual inventory (to a point).
• Ie: you need the strategy to maximize choice and minimize total inventory.
How much inventory do you need? Qualitative assesment
You can’t sell em’ if you don’t have them in stock
• Model specific• Want enough variety (Options / price)• OEM delivery schedule
• Dealer strategy and costs• Gaming – sell a lot to gain allocation• Cost of land value
• Psychology• Buyer ‐ “Maximize variety, minimize duplication” • Salespeople ‐ Steady flow; drastic changes in pace are disruptive
• New paradigm with EVs ?• Try before you buy / test for lifestyle fit
Model MSRPUnique OEM permutations Total unique
combinationsTrim Ext. Int. Packg.FitEV $36,625 None 1 1 1 1
RAV4 EV $49,800 – $50,185 None 3 1 1 3
Model S $74,570 ‐ $131, 920
60 7 48 128
200,000 +85 7 48 128
85D 7 48 128
P85D 7 84 128
Prius plug‐in $29,900 – $38,340
Basic 5 1 1
12Adv. 5 1 1
Adv. w/ Tech. 2 1 1
Leaf $29,010 ‐ $36,365
S 7 1 2
70SV 7 2 3
SL 7 1 2
Fusion Energi $34,700 – $42,880SE 10 2 25
2,920Titanium 10 3 64
Volt $35,170 – $38,730 Volt 8 5 5 200
I3 $42,300 ‐ $51,650
Mega 6 1 36
450Giga 6 1 36
Tera 6 1 36
Let’s take a trip to Fresno, CA
419 new vehicles0 PEVs0%
1429 new vehicles58 PEVs4%
98 new vehicles55 PEVs56%
What about outside of CA? Model State Statewide Retail
inventory“Leader”(% of inv.)
“Laggers”(% dlr. w/0 inv.)
Volt California 1536 (3.5%) 25% 17%
Leaf California 1340 (6%) 67% 11%
Prius Hybrid California 5532 (16%) 33% 2%
Volt Colorado 96 (2%) 10% 33%
Leaf Colorado 49 (1.4%) 2.4% 14%
Leaf Florida 89 (0.6%) 2.8% 24%
Leaf Connecticut 9 (0.2%) 1.4% 63%
Leaf Illinois 60 (0.8%) 6% 38%
Leaf Oregon 190 (12.7%) 31% 0%
Volt Oregon 71 (3%) 12% 27%
Leaf Georgia 692(4%) 47% 36%
Summary & some of my questions• We have a platform for research – needs some work but can be rolled out across markets.
• Already we can show differences in retail supply, and sales rate within the same dealer area.
• Outside of California is MUCH different story can be done outside of the US!
• Will need to take a closer look at the variety of choice offered. Existing literature points to this as more important than total inventory.
• Does limited supply or diversity affect sales?
