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The Joint Front Range CC Vulnerability Study
Laurna Kaatz, Climate Adaptation Program Director, Denver
Water
A LOOK BACK AT CO-PRODUCTION
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2
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Participants
WaterInterests SupportAgencies Addi3onalInterestAuroraWater
WaterResearchFounda1on CheyenneBoardof
PublicU1li1es,WY CityofBoulder WesternWaterAssessment
CityofLongmont
ColoradoSpringsU1li1es
RiversideTechnology,inc.
CityofWestminster
DenverWater NCAR OthersWelcome
CityofFortCollins
NorthernWater
ColoradoWaterConserva1onBoard
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JFRCCVS
• Classic top down • CMIP3, BCSD, “delta” approach • 2040 and
2070 versus 1950-1999 • 4 Static T and P offsets and 10 GCM based
T/P deltas • 2 hydrology models: WEAP, Sac/SMA • Lots of data,
lots of meetings, lots of education
5/16/164
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Educational Sessions • 2007
– WEAP 101, Sac/SMA 101 – David Yates, Riverside • 2008
– WWA Workshop: Climate, Water, and Modeling – Brad Udall,
Balaji Rajagopalan, Levi Brekke, Chris Anderson, Joe Barsugli, Jess
Lowrey
– Methodology Overview and Kick-off meeting – Laurna Kaatz –
Global Climate Modeling 101 – Joe Barsugli – Long Term
Precipitation Trends – Nolan Doesken – Temperature Trends and
Water Management – Klaus Wolter – Riverside’s C2D2S2 climate
interface with NOAA - Riverside
• 2009 – The complexity of the Climate System and Human Roles
– Roger Pielke Sr. – The impacts of climate change on snowpack in
the Colorado headwaters – David Yates – The Colorado River Water
Availability Study – Ben Harding – Statistical Downscaling 101 –
Levi Brekke – Adapting to Climate Change – Jess Lowrey –
Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Planning – Jennifer Daw
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Benefits of a Regional Approach
• Scale: Projections are coarse and cover watersheds •
Communication: Cohesively communicate with customers and the media
• Safety: Provided political coverage • Coordination: Coordinate
with other investigations and participants • Collaboration:
Continue collaboration on education and other investigations •
Resources: Pool finances, staff, and expert resources • Attention:
Everyone wanted to work with us
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-20%
-10%
%
10%
20%
30%
1° 2° 3° 4° 5° 6° 7° 8° 9° 10°
Pre
cipitation
Cha
nge(%
)
TemperatureChange(Fahrenheit)
2040
20700
Science will solve this problem
Sciencecanonlytakeussofar.
ClimateModelProjec3onsforNorthcentralColorado
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8
-20%
-10%
%
10%
20%
30%
1° 2° 3° 4° 5° 6° 7° 8° 9° 10°
Pre
cipitation
Cha
nge(%
)
TemperatureChange(Fahrenheit)
Present Future
Tradi1onalPredictthenPlan2002: Unprecedented Simultaneous
Natural Disasters
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9
B
DecisionPoints
TodayC
Near-term A
DE
TheConeofUncertainty
Addi3onalprecipita3onneededtooffsetwarming 10%
5°FWarmingMeans
ReducedSupply 22%
IncreasedDemand 7%
• Newplanningtechniques-mul1plefutures•
Understanding-uncertaintyandscienceforapplica1ons•
Adap1veplanning-iden1fyingandpreservingop1ons•
Mainstreamingnewcultureintoorganiza1on-widedecisions
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Important outcomes
• Informed DWs philosophy on climate adaptation and planning •
Informed DWs work with WUCA • Climate change in CO report • CRWAS
I, II – State climate modeling of CO river • State bringing
climate change and scenario planning into supply and
demand analysis – SWSI • FRCCG – quarterly meetings still! •
Endless collaborations with NCAR, WWA, RTi
5/16/1610
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CO-PRODUCTIONTOINFORMDROUGHTADAPTATION
David Yates – NCAR, RAL Hydrometeorology Applications Program
[email protected] Laurna Kaatz – Denver Water, Climate Scientist
[email protected] Rob Wilby, Loughborough University
[email protected]
TheShoshoneRelaxa-onAgreement
[email protected]
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Denver Water’s Supply & Use
64TAF
42TAF
SoRoughly30%-40%ofDenver’ssupplyfromWestSlope
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1935
19371902
1912
1946
PriorAppropria1onwaterlaw1stin1me=1stinright
ColoradoR.Compact1922
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ShoshoneHydroelectricPlant–SeniorWaterRights:1250CFS(1902);
ShoshoneCall158CFS(1929)(XcelEnergy)
Commandstheen1reflowoftheColoradoRiveratthatpointformuchoftheyearSuppliesabout0.25%ofXcel’senergy
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Not Quite so Simple.. The Green Mountain Administrative Protocol
(28 pgs. of legalize)
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WaterPlanningNeed:Abilitytomodelinterac1onsacrossphysicalandmanagementsystems
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Scenario Descrip3on Climate Vegeta3vechange
(PM20T2VC) Fewercoldwintersreducemortalityamongstinfec1ng
beetlepopula1ons.Warmer,prolongeddrycondi1ons
stressforestsincreasingtheirsuscep1bilitytoinsect
afack.5%offorestdiesabovereservoirs
GranbyGrand,andGreenMountainpermanently
replacedbylowscrub.
P-20%T+2°C
Dustonsnow
(PM10T1DS) Modestwarminganddryingincreasestheannual
likelihoodofdustonsnoweventsby10%.Noother
effects.
P-10%T+1°C
MildWarming
(PM0T2WM) Seasonalprecipita1ontotalsareunchangedbut
temperaturesarewarmeracrossallseasons. P-0%T+2°C
Co-Production of Climate Narratives- (NCAR, DW, U of L)
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Drought mitigation measure - Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement
(SCRA)
Dillon(1946)‘Paperfill’outofpriority
ColoradoRiver
BlueRiver
ShoshoneSeniorRights:1250CFS(1902);158CFS(1929)(XcelEnergy)
GrandRiverDitch;AdamsTunnel
GrnMtn(1935)FirstFillRight
Granby40%Wolford(1995);WilliamsFork(1959)
Con3nentalDivide
MoffatTunnel(1921)
Keyfeatures
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ReducestheCallfrom1408to704cfsMarch14toMay20duringdroughtyears(definedasforecastJuly1storage≤80%andApril-Julyflowforecast≤85%)
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ColoradoRiverCoopera1veAgreementallowscallrelaxa1ontobeginNov11(severedrought&lawnwaterban)
• PurposeistoincreaseUpperBasinStorage
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Modeledflows:BlueRiveraboveDillonReservoir(top)
ColoradoRiveratShoshone(boWom)
Scenarios:CNTL=currentclimate
PM0T2WM(MildWarming)=Noprecipita1onchange&2oCwarming.
PM10T1DS(Dustonsnow)=declineinsnowalbedocausedbymorefrequentdustonsnowevents,coupledwith10%lessprecip.with1oCwarming.
PM20T2VC(Vegeta1vechange)=Alteredvegeta1onandrunoffrates,coupledwith20%lessprecipita1on&2oCwarming.
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ImpactsWithoutRelaxa3on
UnderthewarmeranddrierscenariosDenverbeginsstoringwaterearlier,butaverageannualdiversionsarereducedby3%,4%,and13%forthePM0T2WM,PM10T1DS,andPM20T2VCscenarios,respec1vely.Denver'sstoragesosenstheimpactofdecliningstreamflowexceptinthesecondseveredroughtyearinthewarmestanddriestscenario.
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RAWindowRelaxa1onyearsonly
1902ShoshoneRight=40cms
RAShoshoneRight=20cms
Inset:thickgray-line=weeklymeanflowsforallyearsofCNTLscenario;thinblackline=flowsduringthe3CNTLscenariorelaxa1onyears;warmingscenarioshavegreaterfrequencyofrelaxa1onyearsbutshorterperiodsbeforebenefitofrelaxa1ondisappears.
Bofomline:ThebenefitfromtheRelaxa1onAgreementisquitesmall--increasingDenver’sdrought-yearwatersupplyby<1%onavg.
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Source:FireMountainCanalandReservoirCompany
END--THANKS
