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March 2014
CIS Country Profile
March, 2015
No warranties, promises, and/or representations of any kind, expressed or implied are given as to the nature, standard, accuracy, or likewise of the information provided in this material nor to the suitability or otherwise of the information to your particular circumstances. Macro‐Advisory Limited does not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, completeness, legality, or reliability of the content contained in this note. © Copyright Macro‐Advisory Limited
GDP, US$ bln (2014 est) $215.0
Population, mln 17.16
GDP/Capita, US$ $12,558
GDP/Capita, PPP basis, US$ $22,467Source: State Statistics Committee
Key Statistics
2014 2015E
Growth, real % YoY 4.3% 0.5%
Budget balnc., % of GDP ‐2.0% ‐4.0%
Consolid'd Budget, % GDP 3.2% ‐2.3%
Industrial Production, % YoY 0.3% ‐1.0%Retail sales, % YoY 12.1% 6.0%
Unemployment, % EOP 5.0% 5.5%
CPI ‐ year‐end, % YoY 7.4% 8.0%
Curr. account, % of GDP ‐0.1% ‐3.0%
Trade Balance, US$ bln $37.0 $15.0
FDI, US$ bln (estimate) $24.8 $22.0
CB Reserves, US$ bln $28.9 $26.0
National Oil Fund, US$ bln $73.6 $68.0
Sov. Debt / GDP % 75.0% 85.0%
CB Key Rate 5.5% 5.5%
KazPrime ‐ 3 Mth 9.0% 9.5%
Tenge/US$, eop 182.40 225.00
Tenge/Ruble, eop 2.92 3.40Urals, average, US$ p/bbl $100 $55Source: Macro‐Advisory estimate, S&P, IMF
Key Macro Indicators
Corporate tax 20.0%
Personal Income tax 10.0%
Sales tax 12.0%
Social tax 21.0%Source: Kazakhstan Government
Tax Rates
S & P
Moody's
FitchSource: Rating agencies
BBB, NegativeBaa2, Positive
BBB+, Stable
Sovereign Credit Ratings
Issuer $ mln YTM, %*
Kazakhstan 24 $1,500 4.8%Kazakhstan 44 $1,000 5.7%Development Bank Kazakh. $1,425 6.5%KazAgro 23 $1,000 6.8%Halyk Bank 17 $638 8.1%Source: Bloomberg * as at 25 February
Public Debt Issues
Kazakhstan: Creating a new Silk Road “Let's appeal to all Kazakhs to be patriots in this complicated
situation and buy our Kazakh goods. This will be help to our economy from our citizens”
Nursultan Nazarbayev, President
Early election in 2Q15. President Nursultan Nazarbayev has called an early presidential election for 26 April. Although not yet confirmed, it would be a huge surprise if Nazarbayev does not contest it (he won the 2011 election with a 95.5% share of the vote), citing the need for national unity and looking for a popular mandate to continue his economic and geo‐political agenda.
Weakening economy and risk of protests force early election. Calling the election more than one year early is partly to end the uncertainty over succession as, it is assumed, he will make clear his preferred successor at the outset of the next term. But the other reason is a growing concern that the deteriorating economy may lead to public protests, especially in those parts of the country that have experienced serious outbreaks of violence in recent years.
The economy has remained too dependent on oil for too long. The president continues to warn that the downturn will be severe. The country has talked a great deal about the need for reforms but remains very vulnerable to the weaker oil price and also to negative contagion from the recession in Russia. The weaker ruble, in particular, has hit the Kazakh economy hard in recent months.
Kashagan has been a very expensive disappointment. Kazakhstan has been waiting many years for the start of production from the giant Kashagan oil field. The danger is that the government may decide to just try ride out the interim period and wait for the oil wealth surge, rather than tackle expensive and difficult reforms.
Tenge devaluation expected. The government is expected to devalue the tenge, but only after the election is completed. Based on the expected trend in the oil price and the ruble, a devaluation of 25% seems likely.
Progress in building transport infrastructure ... The one area of investment which is working well is in infrastructure, particularly road and rail projects. The country is very well located to be a major transport hub for passenger and freight traffic between China and Europe and the Middle East.
… much less in agriculture. Agriculture continues to be highlighted as a potential area of growth and exports. However, so far there is little progress due to administrative barriers, fragmentation and the lack of an agricultural culture.
Contact: info@macro‐advisory.com
Jessica Thorpe contributed to this special report.The report is not for general circulation and isintended for clients of Macro‐Advisory Ltd only.
Chris Weafer +7 916 349 2039
cjw@macro‐advisory.comhttp://macro‐advisory.com/
CIS Country Profile
2
One ‘Steppe’ forward … two side‐ways
Reform and investment plans have moved far too slowly. President Nursultan Nazarbayev has previously
unveiled three major reform and investment initiatives for the country, two of these in 2014 as, initially, the
slowdown in Russia’s economy threatened Kazakh industry and, latterly, the oil price and ruble collapse
threatens to drag the country into recession. It has to be said that, thus far, the detail of these plans has not
strayed too far from the blue print. The reason why the economy is now in a sharp downturn is because of the
still heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector. The value of exports of oil and gas accounts for 60% of total
exports, while taxes from the sector contribute 50% of total budget revenues. Approximately 30% of GDP
comes from the oil and gas sector and related activities.
Kashagan has been a very expensive disappointment. Kazakhstan has been waiting many years for the start
of production from the giant Kashagan oil field which, when fully operational, may add an additional 1.5
million barrels to daily oil exports. That project is already years late and billions of dollars over budget. It may
start producing in late 2016 or early 2017. The danger, therefore, is that the government may decide to just
try to ride out the interim period and wait for the oil wealth surge, rather than tackle expensive and difficult
reforms.
Success seen in building a transport hub. The one area of investment which is working and which has clear
potential in the future is road and rail infrastructure. The country continues to link up its various population
centers and to create a transnational network – no easy or cheap task in a country with a territory the size of
the EU. This is part of a new Silk Road strategy, which aims to create both a junction and hub for passengers
and freight between China and Russia/Europe, Turkey/North Africa and to the Gulf region via Turkmenistan
and Iran.
Agriculture has been developing much more slowly. Other parts of the investment program, e.g., the
development of agriculture, are moving much more slowly (see section on plans for diversification on page
22). In the section looking at Business and Investor opportunities (page 5) we highlight the areas with greater
potential interest for both strategic industry and portfolio investors.
Economy is close to recession. Reflecting the lower oil price and the impact of the contagion from the
recession in Russia and the ruble collapse, we have adjusted our medium‐term forecasts for the economy as
per the table below. We have yet to see the extent and detail of the budget changes ordered by the president
and these may alter some assumptions. Also, we assume that the tenge will be devalued by 25% but not until
after the presidential election due to the risk of a public backlash, albeit bank statistics show that people have
prepared for an imminent devaluation.
Even if no recession, growth will be very modest. Reports suggest that the government plans to cut its
growth forecast for this year and next to 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively, whereas it’s previous assumption was
for growth in excess of 4%. We take a more pessimistic view based on average oil at US$55 per barrel and
post‐election currency devaluation (which the government is not building into its assumptions just yet), and
calculate a more modest growth at 0.5% for this year and 1.5% for 2016.
Consumer and investment spending will slow. We assume the big hits will come from a fall in the growth of
consumer activities (e.g. retail sales) and a contraction in investment spending. Kazakhstan is not benefiting
from import substitution to the extent that the Russian economy is, because: a) it is not subject to sanctions
and b) it has not allowed the tenge to fall either with the oil price or in tandem with the weakening ruble.
CIS Country Profile
3
Kazakhstan – Key Macro Trends2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
GDP, US$ bln $148 $188 $204 $215 $195 $210 $230GDP, Real growth 7.5% 5.0% 6.0% 4.3% 0.5% 1.5% 3.0%Inflation 8.3% 5.1% 5.8% 7.4% 8.0% 6.6% 6.0%
Retail sales, % Chg YoY 12.1% 6.0% 8.5% 9.0%Industrial production, % Chg YoY 3.8% 0.5% 2.3% 0.3% ‐1.0% 0.0% 0.5%Unemployment 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.9%
Budget execution, % GDP (2.1%) (2.9%) (2.1%) (2.0%) (4.0%) (3.0%) (2.0%)Consolidated budget, % of GDP 6.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.2% (2.3%) 0.5% 1.5%Current account, % GDP 0.9% 5.4% 0.5% (0.1%) (3.0%) (4.0%) (3.0%)
FDI, US$ bln $26.5 $28.9 $24.0 $24.8 $22.0 $25.0 $26.0Total foreign debt, US$ bln $125.0 $137.0 $149.0 $162.0 $166.0 $171.0 $180.0Total foreign debt, % GDP 84% 73% 73% 75% 85% 81% 78%
Tenge/Ruble, eop 4.7 4.8 4.7 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.4Tenge/Ruble, average 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.1 2.9 3.8 4.4
Tenge/US$, eop 148.0 150.0 154.0 182.4 225.0 225.0 225.0Tenge/US$, average 147.0 149.0 152.0 180.0 205.0 225.0 225.0
Urals, US$ p/bbl, average $109 $110 $108 $100 $55 $70 $80
Source: State Statistics Committee, Asia Development Bank, IMF, EBRD, Macro‐Advisory estimates
Devaluation after the election. The government surprised the country with a 19% tenge devaluation in
February 2014, but has held the currency stable relative to the US dollar since then. Despite denials that it
plans to devalue the tenge again, it is widely assumed that the government will have no choice assuming that
the oil price and the ruble remain weak. However, any devaluation will have to wait until after the
presidential election because of the risk of public protests.
Tenge v US Dollar ‐ Past Five Years
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
CIS Country Profile
4
Presidential election called early. Kazakhstan had been scheduled to hold the next presidential election in
late 2016, but will now hold the election on 26 April. The president has cited the need for strong national
unity and leadership to tackle the current crisis. Although the country has adopted a two‐term limit for
presidents, this does not apply to the current president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has been in power since
independence in 1991 and is not subject to any term limits.
The risk of regional protests is a factor. One of the motivations is the risk that the deterioration in the
economy may act as a catalyst for more protests and violence in those regions, which have witnessed an
increase in tensions since 2011. In that year, the so‐called Zhanaozen tragedy resulted in 16 deaths (official
figures) and at least a hundred injured as people protested against social inequalities (see Social Issues on
page 32). There was also been some racial violence earlier this year. It seems the president does not wish to
take the risk of contesting an election in 2016 when the economy may be in worse shape and the risk of
regional violence higher.
The succession question has kept investment risk high. The question of succession has been a major dark
cloud hanging over the country for several years and stories of internal political intrigues have added to the
perception of investment and business risk. The move to call an early election should quell those concerns
over the medium and longer term if a clear succession path is also revealed simultaneously.
President Nazarbayev seems likely to stand and win the election. It seems most likely that Nazarbayev will
contest the election (and win) as a sort of national unity measure. He could also nominate a successor and
give his support to that person in the coming election, but that would be a big surprise. It is more likely that
he will win the presidency for another five‐year term (at the end of which he would be 80 years old) and make
clear his succession preferences, or at least narrow them down, early in the presidency.
Kazakh external debt is safe. Most of the major sovereign and state‐enterprise US dollar‐denominated
Eurobonds are rated BBB by ratings agency S&P. They are yielding between 5 and 7% currently. There is no
credit or payments risk with these issues. Kazakhstan may, however, come to the market to raise new debt
depending on where oil trades and the consequent size of the budget deficit. If it is a case of a relatively small
deficit then this can be covered by a transfer from the National Oil Fund.
9‐Mar International Women's Day
21‐25 Mar Novryz (Spring Festival)
May 1,7,9,11 Victory celebrations
6‐Jul Capital Day
30‐Aug Constitution Day
23‐Sep Kurban Bairam (Eid Al‐Adha)
1‐Dec President's Day16‐17 Dec Independence Day Holiday
Source: Timeanddate.com
Major Holidays: 2015
CIS Country Profile
5
Business & Investor opportunities
Road and rail infrastructure and transport linked investments are at the top of the government’s wish
list. Progress has been made and will continue.
Logistics, especially under the Silk Road concept of linking China with Europe/Russia/Middle East.
Agriculture is also a key industry for development, but remains highly fragmented, overly
bureaucratic and without a commercial culture.
Moving up the value chain in materials extraction is also an identified priority, but progress will be
slow until revenues from Kashagan are available to the budget.
Social projects which are consistent with the development of a modern state. Progress will slow for a
couple of years due to the expected economic downturn, but longer‐term growth in consumer
sectors, healthcare, etc., will remain above the developed world average.
Lots of planning … progress in transport. The Kazakh government has adopted four separate development
plans in recent years. So far there has been little progress in actually implementing many of the plans with the
exception of infrastructure. A great deal of money has been spent on improving the country’s road and rail
networks and ambitious plans for further upgrades look achievable.
Modern Silk Road. The concept of a latter day Silk Road or a junction between Asia and Russia/Europe/Middle
East is at the heart of the government’s development plan for the country. Given China’s ambition to open up
land routes for its exports, the Kazakh concept makes sense and is already starting to show results with
increased freight traffic and promises of further investment. One current example is the proposal to extend
Russia’s planned high‐speed rail link between Moscow and Kazan and Yekaterinburg to Beijing via Kazakhstan.
That makes sense and could cut the journey time to 48 hours instead of the current seven‐day rail journey via
the Trans‐Siberian railway.
Note: Marco Polo only strayed briefly into what is now Kazakhstan, i.e. near Almaty. Marco Polo’s route was
mostly via Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Development plans
Four major plans. The four medium‐ and long‐term development plans announced by the government in the
past couple of years are:
Kazakhstan 2050. This plan is focused on trying to attract a much bigger volume of inward investment into
both infrastructure projects and into industries, which would boost exports. The emphasis is on PPP schemes
with the state‐controlled pension fund and the National Oil Fund participating along with foreign investors. A
greater range of opportunities is more likely to open to foreign companies because of the slowdown in the
economy and the need to get back to 4%+ annual growth.
Agribusiness–2020. In February 2013, the Government approved a new sectoral program of agro‐industrial
complex development for 2013‐2020 “Agribusiness–2020”. The aim of the Agribusiness‐2020 program is
stated under five categories:
1. Financial recovery
2. Increase of affordability of products
CIS Country Profile
6
3. Works and services for the agro‐industrial sector entities
4. Development of the state system of agricultural producers support
5. Improvement of efficiency of the state management system of the agro‐industrial complex
Trying to push beef production. In 2013, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture also released a Master Plan for
“The stabilization of the grain market”, as part of Agribusiness–2020 program. In it, the Ministry sets targets
for grain production, consumption and exports between 2013 and 2020. These targets include a projected
shift from wheat to “feed crops” in order to support the planned expansion of the beef industry.
Eternal Kazakhstan. This plan was published in January 2014 and specifically highlighted five industry sectors
which the government wants to concentrate on. These are:
Energy
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Social sectors
The Bright Road. This plan was published by the president last November. It concentrated on measures to
stabilize the economy, i.e. as the downturn in Russia was starting to bite and the ruble had fallen sharply. The
aim of the plan in particular, is to deal with toxic loans and to strengthen the banking system using the
pension fund. The president again also highlighted infrastructure as the core part of the country’s longer‐term
development plan.
Volatile but confident. Confidence amongst Kazakh business managers/owners remains generally high still.
Albeit as the chart below shows, it can be very volatile depending on the headlines and even on the season.
Over the longer term, businesses generally remain confident about progress rather than stagnation or
reversal.
Kazakhstan Business Confidence
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
CIS Country Profile
7
Portfolio investors
Equities took a hit with oil and the ruble. Equities in Kazakhstan are traded on the KASE Index (see below). It
performed relatively well in 2014 right up to the point when the oil price started to slide and brought the
Russian ruble with it. Over the calendar year of 2014, the KASE Index managed to gain 2.6%, having been up
over 30% on 1 September 2014. Year‐to‐date, the index is off 12% as investors wait for:
Confirmation of the election date
Devaluation of the tenge – how much and when?
Concern over the contagion from the weak Russian ruble
Where oil will trade
What will be the impact of proposed budget cuts on growth
What will be the effect on earnings
KASE Equity Index ‐ Past 12 Months
Source: Kazakh Stock Exchange
DR listings. Below are the most liquid Kazakh stocks listed on the London Stock Exchange, using consensus
numbers and with some downward adjustment in forecast earnings to reflect the downturn in the economy.
Kazakh Shares ‐ DR Listed Company Sector Ticker Price* MCap* Free Div Yield, % DR perf.
$ p/s $ bln Float 2014E 2015E 2014E % YTDKCEL Mobile Tel. KCEL LI $8.6 $1.7 25.0% 6.5 6.8 10.0% ‐14.0%
KazMunaiGaz Oil & Gas KMG LI $11.6 $4.7 20.6% 10.0 10.5 10.0% ‐20.0%
Ferrexpo Metals FXPO LI $1.0 $0.6 24.1% 4.8 5.2 5.0% 22.0%
Halyk Bank HSBK LI $6.6 $1.8 20.2% 3.6 3.8 10.0% ‐22.0%
KazKomertsBank Bank KKB LI $3.5 $1.3 7.1% 3.8 4.6 ‐10.0%Source: Bloomberg, Macro‐Advisory estimates * as at close 25 February
Price Earnings Ratio
CIS Country Profile
8
On the Eurobond debt market, there is no risk of a Kazakh default or payment crisis. The state has plenty of
financial resources to cover all of the obligations of state companies, large banks and the country’s most
important industries. The only issues are:
The rating agencies may downgrade to one step above investment grade (now two notches above),
depending on where the oil price trades and how they see the effectiveness of the state’s budget and
support response.
Assuming no downgrade, then Kazakhstan is very likely to come to the market this year to raise debt
in order to cover the budget deficit. The existing total foreign debt to GDP is 75%, which will rise to
approximately 85% this year due to the decline in US dollar‐terms of GDP (currency impact), while
the sovereign external debt to GDP is less than 4% of GDP.
Kazakh Eurobond issues Issuer Maturity Coupon, % Size, US$ mln YTM. % * Rating **Kazakhstan 2024 3.875% $1,500 4.8% BBBKazakhstan 2044 4.875% $1,000 5.7% BBBDevelopment Bank Kazakhstan 2022 4.125% $1,425 6.5% BBBKazAgro 2023 4.625% $1,000 6.8% BBBHalyk Bank 2017 7.250% $638 8.1% BB+Halyk Bank 2021 7.250% $500 8.7% BB+Source: Bloomberg * as at close 25 February** S&P
CIS Country Profile
9
Key Statistics
Population: 17.2 million (2014)
Ethnic mix: 63.1% Kazakh
23.7% Russian
2.9% Uzbek
2.1% Ukrainian
1.4% Uighur
1.3% Tatar
1.1% German
4.4% Other
Age Distribution of PopulationAge band % of Total
0 ‐ 14 21.8%
15 ‐ 64 70.2%65 + 7.9%
Source: IndexMundi
Capital city: Astana (approximate population 664,000), since 1997.
Almaty, the former capital, is the country’s largest city with a population of 1.6
million (City Statistics Department)
Major languages: Kazakh: 64.4% speakers – official language
Russian: 95% speakers – official language
Major religion: Muslim 70.2%
Christian (Russian Orthodox) 26.2%
Life expectancy: 62.6 for Men and 73.5 for Women
Monetary unit: 1 Kazakh tenge = 100 tiyin; 1 US$ = 180.94 tenge (official rate)
Main exports: Oil, gas, ferrous metals, chemicals & grain
GDP volume: US$215 bln (end‐2014)
GDP per capita: US$12,558 (2014)
GDP using PPP basis: US$22,467
CIS Country Profile
10
GNI for the country: 30.3
Motor vehicles: 246 vehicles per 1,000 people
Telecoms: 28.7 million mobile phones (140% penetration). The telecoms network is still in
need of modernization. The number of fixed lines is increasing gradually with fixed
line density now 25/100 persons.
Corruption Ranking: 126 in a survey of 175 countries (from 140 out of 177 in 2013) per the Transparency
International Perception Index.
Economic Freedom: Score of 63.3 (‐0.4% YoY) ranking at 69 out of 178 countries. Rated moderately free
by the Heritage Foundation.
Press freedom: Scored 85 (0‐100, 100 is worst) and ranked 161 out of 180 countries. Rated “not
free” by Reporters without Borders.
Ease of Business: Ranked 77 out of 189 countries in World Bank survey (2015).
WTO Not yet a member. Application made in 1996.
Eurasian Union: Member with Russia & Belarus since 2010 (Customs Union) and Armenia since
2015.
CIS Full member.
Kazakhstan shares borders with China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan. It is the world’s largest
landlocked country and covers an area the size of the EU. The geography breaks down is as follows:
Desert 44%
Semi‐desert 14%
Steppe 26%
Forest 5.5%
This leaves 10.5% for arable land, urban coverage and mountains, rivers and lakes. There are 8,500 rivers In
Kazakhstan and 48 000 lakes.
CIS Country Profile
11
Kazakhstan and its Neighbors
Source: Opendemocracy.net
Kazakhstan has the largest economy in Central Asia. It became the first CIS state to receive an investment
grade rating in 2002. The labor force remains strong with one in ten members having a higher education. Over
60% of the work force is employed in the services industry, 25% in agriculture and just 11% in the industrial
sector. Unemployment remains stable close to the 5.0% level (as of end‐2014).
Oil & Gas exports are critical. As the world’s largest landlocked country, Kazakhstan remains reliant on its
neighbors for exports. Oil & gas exports, primarily to other CIS states, China and Europe are the biggest source
of tax revenue for the country. In 2014, oil and gas accounted for 30% of GDP, 50% of total tax revenues (the
mining sector accounting for a further 10%) and 60% of the value of exports.
CIS Country Profile
12
Politics
Presidential election set for 26 April. Kazakhstan had been scheduled to hold the next presidential election in
2016, but will now hold the election on 26 April. The president has cited the need for strong national unity
and leadership to tackle the current economic crisis. Although the country has adopted a two‐term limit for
presidents, this does not apply to the current president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has been in power since
independence in 1991 and is not subject to any term limits.
The risk of regional protests is a factor. One of the motivations to hold an early election is the risk that the
deterioration in the economy may act as a catalyst for more protests and violence in regions, which have seen
an increase in tensions since 2011. In that year, the so‐called Zhanaozen tragedy resulted in 16 deaths (official
figures) and at least a hundred injured as people protested against social inequalities (see Social Issues on
page 32). There was also some racial violence earlier this year. It seems the president does not wish to take
the risk of contesting an election in 2016 when the economy may be in worse shape and the risk of regional
violence higher.
Tenge devaluation more likely after the election. The risk of protests, like those which took place after the
February 2014 tenge devaluation and as a result of changes to the pensions system, is also a reason not to
expect a further devaluation until after the election.
The succession question has kept investment risk high. The question of succession has been a major dark
cloud hanging over the country for several years and stories of internal political intrigues have added to the
perception of investment and business risk. The move to call an early election should quell those concerns
over the medium and longer term if a clear succession path is also revealed simultaneously.
President Nazarbayev seems likely to stand and win. It seems most likely that Nazarbayev will contest the
election (and win) as a sort of national unity measure. He could also nominate a successor and give his
support to that person in the coming election, but that would be a big surprise. It is more likely that he will
win the presidency for another five‐year term (at the end of which he would be 80 years old) and make clear
his succession preferences, or at least narrow them down, early in the presidency.
Bakhat Aliyev’s death removes a big uncertainty. The process has now been made somewhat easier after the
apparent suicide of Bakhat Aliyev, the president’s former son‐in‐law, in an Austrian jail on 24 February. He
had been arrested on a warrant from Kazakhstan, which he always claimed was politically motivated. Reports
from Astana suggest that the death of Aliyev may now pave the way for the grooming of Nazarbayev's eldest
daughter Dariga and her eldest son Nurali Aliyev as potential successors. The possible designation of either
Dariga, Aliyev's former wife, or Nurali as successor would have met opposition from elite groups within the
Kazakh establishment because of the fear of Aliyev's comeback after Nazarbayev's departure. It has been
suggested that Aliyev's death will now quell these fears.
President’s grandson must wait ten more years. Dariga, 51, is currently a deputy speaker of the Kazakh
parliament's lower chamber, the Mazhilis, whereas, her son Nurali, 30, started his political career as deputy
mayor of Astana in December 2014. According to the Kazakh constitution, candidates must be at least 40 to
become president.
CIS Country Profile
13
The election process was initiated by the president. The country’s Constitutional Court gave the greenlight
for the early presidential election by interpreting the provisions of the constitution in response to a formal
inquiry by the Senate Speaker Kasymzhomart Tokayev. According to the court, the Kazakh president had an
exclusive right to call an early presidential election on its own. The constitution does not set any conditions or
limitations for the president while making a decision on holding early poll.
The president initiated the process for an early election. On 14 February, the Assembly of Kazakhstan’s
People, a body controlled by the president, put forward the idea of holding an early presidential election due
to the need of strong leadership during the ongoing economic crisis. Since then, the proposal was supported
by many prominent politicians and by the ruling party, Nur Otan, and parliament. The election, assuming the
president wins as comfortably as he has done previously, will be taken as a vote of confidence in the
president’s economic and political policies which, presumably, would then be largely unchanged.
OSCE will be invited to observe. Although the country has never held an election judged to be free and fair by
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the government is eager to invite election
monitoring bodies, including an OSCE mission to observe the process, according to the Foreign Minister.
Kazakhstan is a presidential republic. The president of Kazakhstan is both the head of state and head of the
government. The current President is Nursultan Nazarbayev, a former First Secretary of the Communist Party
of Kazakhstan in the Soviet‐era. He has led the country since independence in 1991. The president is head of
the bicameral parliament made up of the Senate (47 seats) and the Mazhilis (107 seats). In May 2007,
parliament approved constitutional amendments shortening the presidential term from seven years to five
years and establishing a two‐consecutive term limit. However, Nazarbayev has the official status as the ‘First
President of Kazakhstan’ and is allowed unlimited terms.
Nazarbayev was born in 1940. He joined the Communist Party in 1962,
rising through the ranks to become Prime Minister in 1984, and was then
elected First Secretary of the Communist Party in 1989.
Nazarbayev was first elected president in 1991 with an uncontested 98.8%
of the vote. In 1995 a referendum extended his term until 2000. He has
been re‐elected three times – in January 1999, December 2005 and most
recently in 2011 when he won with a 95.5% share of the vote from a
turnout of 89%. The election was criticized by the OSCE and other
international observers.
The Nazarbayev family holds many prominent positions in the country. His
eldest daughter, Dariga, is a member of parliament, his middle daughter,
Dinara, is chairman of the Kazakh‐British Technical University and his
youngest, Aliya, is head of Elitstroy construction company.
CIS Country Profile
14
Legislative bodies
Two bodies. Legislative functions are performed by the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which
consists of two Chambers acting on a permanent basis: the Senate and the Mazhilis:
The Senate is composed of deputies represented in an order established by the constitutional law:
two persons represent each oblast and major city of Kazakhstan. Fifteen of the Senate deputies are
appointed by the President, taking into account the necessity of maintaining a representation in the
Senate of the national cultural and other significant elements of society.
The Mazhilis consists of one hundred and seven elected deputies. Nine deputies of the Mazhilis are
elected by the Assembly of the people of Kazakhstan. Senate deputies serve terms of six years; while
deputies in the Mazhilis serve terms of five years.
Currently three parties are present in the Mazhilis – ‘Nur Otan’ People's Democratic Party, ‘Ak Zhol’
Democratic Party of Kazakhstan and Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan. For the first time since
independence the three parties passed the electoral threshold in the 2012 parliamentary elections,
ending the much criticized one‐party rule. However, no party managed to enter the Mazhilis (lower
house of bicameral parliament), with Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan party gaining 81% of the vote and the
Communist Party and Democratic Party gaining 7% each, respectively.
Pro‐president party is dominant. The National Democratic Party ‘Nur Otan’ is the largest pro‐presidential
party in Kazakhstan and, since 2007, has been led by Nazarbayev. The Democratic & Communist Parties retain
a small number of seats in Parliament. The Nationwide Social Democratic Party is the only opposition party in
Kazakhstan known for openly criticizing Nazarbayev and his party, Nur Otan.
Astana: Presidential Palace (Ak Orda) in the Foreground
Source: astana‐opia
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Economy
Economy had been over‐heating. Kazakhstan’s economy was in danger of over‐heating with annual growth
ranging from 6% to 7.5% between 2010 and 2013. The consumer sector was the main driver as
unemployment remained low, real wages expanded and state spending increased on the back of rising oil
revenues. That ended in 2014 as the price of oil and gas fell. GDP last year came in at 4.3%, down from 6% in
2013.
Ruble collapse threatens growth. The other big threat to the economy is the contagion from the collapse in
the Russian ruble. This makes imports from Russia much cheaper and Kazakh goods a lot less competitive in
Russia. One example of the damage caused by the ruble collapse is evident in the fact that Kazakh’s bought
70,000 vehicles in Russia during November and December, and that contributed to a 30% YoY decline in new
car sales in the country for January.
Most people expect currency devaluation this year. Despite assurances from senior government and Central
Bank officials that the tenge is not about to be devalued again (it was devalued 20% in February last year), the
low oil price makes that almost inevitable. However, it will probably not occur until after the presidential
election in case it causes a public backlash.
Kazakhstan GDP Annual Growth Rate
Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Kazakhstan State Statistics Service
The economy is very oil dependent. However, even as the end to the over‐heating risk is to be welcomed, the
economy is in danger of sliding into recession if the oil price were to average US$50 p/bbl or less this year.
The danger of a recession and the threat of social unrest that might come on the back of that is one reason
why the president has initiated the process to call an early presidential election.
The budget parameters have been changed. Apart from the early election, the government has also
responded by reviewing this year’s budget and medium term growth projections. The revised draft places the
oil price assumption at US$50 p/bbl from a previous three‐year assumption of US$80 p/bbl. That is expected
to mean a cut in this year’s GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 4.5% previously), rising to 2.2% in 2016 and
3.3% in 2017.
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Spending is to be cut by 10% across the board. At a government meeting on 11 February, President
Nazarbayev announced a 10% cut in central budget spending, or KZT700 bln (US$3.78 bln), which should not
affect government spending on social programs. Nazarbayev also said that the Samruk‐Kazyna sovereign
wealth fund and the national companies that it runs would cut their spending by KZT337 bln (US$1.8 bln),
including capital spending by KZT240 bln (US$1.3 bln). Other areas to be cut will include the promotion
budget for the Universiade (Winter World University Games) in Almaty in 2017, which many regard as nothing
more than a PR exercise, and the construction of an underground transport system in Almaty. The former's
price tag is, according to Nazarbayev, KZT100 bln (US$540 mln), while the second stage of the Almaty
underground requires funds of KZT227 bln (US$1.23 bln).
Forecasts
Economy may just about show growth. The table below shows our expectations for the economy in 2015‐
2017. Based on a US$55 p/bbl average oil price, we expect the economy to still show positive growth, but at
0.5% in 2015 compared to 4.3% in 2014. This is based on the assumption that retail sales growth will half, to
6% YoY from 12.1% YoY last year, as wage growth slows and import prices rise due to the delay in devaluing
the tenge.
Industrial production may contract. The government expects industrial production to remain positive this
year (+0.3% YoY), but it is difficult to see how that can be achieved without a big boost to import substitution.
That would only come, at least partially, with a large tenge devaluation against the ruble and we assume that
will not be sufficient enough and will be delayed until after the presidential election.
A bigger devaluation would not be a surprise. We assume a 25% tenge devaluation after the election, i.e.
similar to the cut made in February 2014. A bigger cut, especially if the price of oil is trading near US$50 p/bbl,
would not be a surprise.
Kazakhstan – Forecasts2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
GDP, US$ bln $204 $215 $195 $210 $230GDP, Real growth 6.0% 4.3% 0.5% 1.5% 3.0%Inflation 5.8% 7.4% 8.0% 6.6% 6.0%
Retail sales, % Chg YoY 12.1% 6.0% 8.5% 9.0%Industrial production, % Chg YoY 2.3% 0.2% ‐1.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Tenge/Ruble, eop 4.7 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.4Tenge/Ruble, average 4.8 4.1 2.9 3.8 4.4
Tenge/US$, eop 154.0 182.4 225.0 225.0 225.0Tenge/US$, average 152.0 180.0 205.0 225.0 225.0
Urals, US$ p/bbl, average $108 $100 $55 $70 $80
Source: State Statistics Committee, Asia Development Bank, IMF, EBRD, Macro‐Advisory estimates
CIS Country Profile
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Major trends in the economy
Retail trade remained strong last year. Retail trade expanded by 12.1% YoY to KZT6.02 tln (nearly US$32 bln)
in 2014 according to the State Statistics Committee. Non‐food sales volume rose 13.3% and food volumes
rose by 10.1%. The volume of trade by individual sellers increased by 8.8% YoY; for retail enterprises the
growth was 15.2% and reached KZT3.245 tln. The structure of sales is dominated by non‐food products (65.5%
of total volume), while food products accounted for 34.9% of the total.
In 2014, retail sales of non‐food products increased by 13.3% YoY and food sales grew by 10.1% YoY.
Kazakhstan Retail Sales YoY
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Vehicle sales rose but many came from Russia. Last year 699,578 cars were registered in Kazakhstan, an
increase of 16.2% YoY. There are now 4 million cars registered in the country. However, during the last two
months of the year, over 60,000 cars were imported by individual purchasers from Russia as a direct
consequence of the ruble collapse. In January of this year, there has been a 30% decrease in the number of
cars sold in the country as a hangover from the November and December imports.
Promises, but no details yet. The Minister for Investments and Development has pledged measures to
support the automotive industry, saying that a special working group had been established to work out how
to deal with the problems in this sector. However, no other details were offered by the minister.
Real‐estate. The number of transactions registered on the property market decreased by 13.4% YoY last year.
Inflation rose but stayed within the target range. Inflation has remained within the government’s targeted 6‐
8% range, albeit only just. The very early devaluation and stability since then has helped to keep the headline
rate from rising along with some price control measures and the export ban on fuel products. This year we
expect to see a further gain in headline inflation because of the expected devaluation.
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Macro Results for 2014GDP, nominal, KZT Т38,033
GDP, US$ $215
GDP, % real change 4.3%
Industrial production, % Change 0.3%
Retail sales 12.1%
Construction, % YoY 4.1%
Agriculture 0.8%
Budget balance, % of GDP ‐2.0%
Consolidated budget, % of GDP 3.2%
Tax collections, % change YoY 9.6%
Income growth, nominal, % YoY 10.2%Real income growth, % YoY 2.6%Unemployment, year‐end 5.0%
Consumer inflation, eop, % 7.4%PPI 9.5%
Refiancing rate ‐ Central Bank 5.5%KazPrime ‐ 3 month 9.0%
Tenge/Ruble, eop 4.1Tenge/Ruble, average 2.9
Tenge/US$, eop 182.4Tenge/US$, average 180.0
Urals, US$ p/bbl, average $100Source: State Statistics Committee, Macro Advisory
Tenge
The government made a surprise devaluation of 19% to the tenge in February 2014. Although the Central
Bank has said that devaluation is “unlikely”, it is widely assumed that there will be a further devaluation this
year, most likely after the expected presidential election. The factors that will influence whether there is a
devaluation or not will principally be:
Where the ruble is trading – if close to the current level or weaker then there is a greater likelihood
for a devaluation.
If the oil price if less than US$60 p/bbl there will also be pressure for a devaluation.
If the economy is weakening faster than expected, the government will try to stimulate demand for
local products with a devaluation.
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Role of the US$ is to be decreased. In 2013 the state introduced a multi‐currency basket based on the US
dollar (70%), the euro (20%) and the ruble (10%). In 2015, a floating exchange rate linked to this basket is due
to be introduced, and the role of the US dollar is to be decreased gradually.
Tenge‐Ruble Exchange Rate ‐ Past 12 Months
Source: ExchangeRates
Devaluation is expected. Depositors and companies already assume that devaluation is coming and have
greatly increased the volume of deposits in foreign currency as the chart below shows.
Kazakhstan Retail Deposits 2008‐2014, Year‐end (bln tenge)
Source: National Bank Of Kazakhstan
De‐dollarization is a key strategy. Despite the big increase in foreign currency deposits, the National Bank
continues to see de‐dollarization of the economy as an important task. It is expected that a joint action plan
on de‐dollarization of the economy will be completed and endorsed in March. According to earlier
information, the package includes doubling the size of guaranteed tenge‐denominated deposits in commercial
banks to KZT10 mln and a ban on the pricing of goods and services in conventional units, i.e. dollars.
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Boosting protection for tenge deposits. The head of the National Bank has said that the NBK would provide
KZT250 bln through the Distressed Loans Fund and plans to team up with the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development and Asian Development Bank to raise medium‐term and long‐term liquidity
through swaps. He also suggested that the overnight loan rate could be decreased. The basic refinancing rate
was cut to 5.5% in 2012. According to market data, the overnight rate reached 40‐50% in mid‐December as
the Russian crisis escalated. Today the KazPrime 3‐month rate is 9%.
Predicting a big drop in NPLs. The head of the National Bank said that the share of bad loans was expected to
fall below 10% as of 1 January, 2016. He said that the level of bad loans had shrunk from a high of 33% in 2009
to 23.5% as of the beginning of this year. He did not specify exactly how this is to be achieved.
Role of the Pension Fund
Contributions continue to rise. Contributions to the Pension Fund amounted to KZT632 bln (US$3.4 bln) last
year, which is 12% more than in 2013. Single employer average contribution was KZT104,000, or
KZT10,000 more than a year earlier. The amount of pension savings amounted to KZT4.5 tln as of end‐2014.
The yield reached 6.3%.
Development of the financial sector of Kazakhstan until 2030. Kazakhstan nationalized pension funds in 2013
and created a single pension fund in order to stimulate economic development. Under the concept,
development of the financial sector of Kazakhstan until 2030, part of the pension fund's assets is invested in
the country's economy through the National Bank of Kazakhstan's financial instruments.
A source of liquidity for banks. The head of the National Bank said that KZT500 bln‐1 tln is needed to improve
the liquidity of the banking system over the next three to six months. That sum could be raised through the
purchase of the commercial banks’ bonds by the Single Pension Fund, he suggested. The Single Pension Fund
was created in 2013 after nationalization of private pension funds. It is managed by the NBK and it is one of
the vehicles through which the government is able to pump investment into the economy.
Kazakhstan Government Debt to GDP
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
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External trade
Bigger trade surplus in 2014. Kazakhstan was able to slightly boost its trade surplus in 2014, despite the
falling oil price, because imports fell faster. For 2015, the government expects to be able to maintain a
surplus, albeit smaller, as imports should again fall. Clearly, the result will depend on where oil trades and
when/by how much the tenge is devalued.
Trade Surplus shrinks2014 2013 Diff
Exports $78.2 $84.7 ‐7.7%
Imports $41.2 $48.8 ‐15.6%Surplus $37.0 $35.9 3.1%
Source: State Statistics Committee
Exports. Kazakhstan’s exports (according to State Statistics Committee data) are dominated by:
Oil and gas 58.3%
Metal and metal products 23.4%
Chemical products 12.9%
Food products 5.4%
Imports. Imports (SSC data) are made up of:
Machinery and equipment 32.1%
Chemical products 13.3%
Other materials, including oil&gas 15%
Metal and metal products 13%
Food products 12.1%
Trade with Customs Union fell by one‐fifth. Kazakhstan’s foreign trade with Russia and Belarus, the fellow
members of the Customs Union, fell by 20.1% YoY to US$19.7 bln in 2014, according to the State Statistics
Committee's preliminary data. The main reason for that was the decline in imports, down by 22.6% YoY to
US$14.458 bln. Exports also shrank but to a lesser extent, by 12.2% YoY to US$5.2 bln. Kazakhstan’s exports to
Russia shrank by 11.9% YoY to US$5.2 bln, while imports decreased by 23.6% YoY to US$13.7 bln. Exports to
Belarus dropped by 49.9% YoY to US$29 mln, while imports grew by 4.2% YoY to US$728 mln.
Kazakhstan: Main Trade PartnersExports % of Total Imports % of Total
Italy 20.5% Russia 33.3%
China 12.5% China 17.9%Netherlands 11.2% Germany 5.6%
Russia 6.6% US 4.8%France 6.0% Ukraine 2.9%
Source: State Statistics Committee
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Plans for growth and diversification
Steady flow of inward investment. Since independence, Kazakhstan has made progress towards the creation
of a market economy, attracting substantial foreign investment totaling US$177.7 bln since 1991. However,
the bulk of this has been into the oil and gas sectors and, as a result, those sectors continue to dominate the
economy and also how investors perceive the investment climate.
PPP Schemes advocated. In 2013, Kazakhstan adopted new legislation allowing a wide range of sectors to
access Public Private Partnerships (PPP), with the principal aim to encourage private investment into
infrastructure and social sectors. There are now numerous global conglomerates operating in Kazakhstan.
Major PPP projects to be launched include the renovation of Aktau international airport, the construction of a
power transmission line and the Shar to Ust‐Kamenogorsk railway. There are also plans to modernize the
railway system, water supply networks and municipal networks in major cities including Astana & Almaty.
According to the plan, by 2020 more than US$60 bln should be invested in transport and logistics in the
country. US$4 bln has also been earmarked for the housing sector over the same period.
Kazakhstan 2050. This project was adopted in 2013 and designed to make Kazakhstan one of the world’s top‐
30 most‐developed countries by 2050. More specifically the plan aims to:
Create further economic growth in new markets
Create a favorable investment climate
Develop an effective private sector and PPPs
Eternal Kazakhstan. In January 2014, the government also announced another plan, this one called ‘Eternal
Kazakhstan’. This project targets modernization and development in the following sectors:
Energy
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Social sectors
Ambitious growth plans. This plan also set out a target for average annual GDP growth of 4%, an increase of
investment as a percentage of GDP from 18% to 30% and a goal for the share of non‐oil exports to rise to 70%.
Today, non‐oil exports account for 40% of the total value of exports.
The Bright Road. In November 2014, President Nazarbayev announced the ‘New Economic Policy – The Bright
Road’, a project aimed at economic structural reforms, to drive further growth. The plan aims to:
Increase the National Fund, securing infrastructure projects
Revival of the banking sector and a buyout of bad loans
To raise new investments and to continue EXPO‐17, an infrastructure project aimed at improving
transport hubs and countrywide connections on road and rail.
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Big transport plans. The country plans to commission another 144km‐long stretch of the western Europe‐
western China road in 2015 and to repair more than 7,500km of roads by 2020 according to a government
statement in February. First Deputy Investment and Development Minister Zhenis Kasymbek also told MPs on
2 February that a further 304km‐long stretch between Almaty and Khorgos on the Kazakh‐Chinese border
would be commissioned in 2016. The 102 km‐long Shymkent‐Tashkent road will also be completed in 2016, he
added. Since the completion of the construction of 1,884 km of roads between the Kazakh‐Russian border and
Shymkent in 2014, freight traffic has increased three‐fold, the deputy minister noted. Kasymov also told MPs
that the country would repair over 7,500km of roads by 2020. The government's road construction and
repairs program envisages implementing 12 major projects to the tune of KZT2.4 tln (US$13 bln) that would
link the capital, Astana, with major urban centers.
More money earmarked. For this reason, the central budget will allocate KZT707 bln in 2015‐17 and a further
KZT31 bln will be taken from the National Oil Fund in 2015‐16, the deputy minister noted. The remaining
funds will be obtained as loans from international financial institutions, Kasymov suggested. "Intensive
negotiations are currently underway," he noted.
The new Silk Road. One area where Kazakhstan may benefit is as a transport hub between China and
Russia/Turkey/EU. It was recently stated that a planned high‐speed rail link, connecting Moscow and Beijing,
could go across Kazakhstan. Russia is planning to build a RUB400 bln high‐speed railway between Moscow and
Kazan, the capital of Russia’s republic of Tatarstan. This may eventually be extended to China and cut the
Beijing to Moscow journey time to 48 hours instead of seven days at present. The Chinese authorities have
been keen to build transport links to the Mediterranean, via Turkey, to Europe, via Russia, and to the Gulf, via
Pakistan and/or Central Asia.
Agribusiness–2020. In February 2013, the Government approved a new sectoral program of agro‐industrial
complex development for 2013‐20 ‘Agribusiness–2020”. The aim of the Agribusiness‐2020 program is stated
under five categories:
1. Financial recovery
2. Increase affordability of products
3. Works and services for agro‐industrial sector entities
4. Development of a state system to support agricultural producers
5. Improvement of efficiency in the state management of the agro‐industrial complex
Money allocated, but reforms slow. In line with the program, the government approved one package in April
2014: the rules of subsidizing efforts to restore agricultural companies to health. The plan called for an initial
provision of 140 billion tenge to second‐tier banks for this purpose. While specific figures are not available, it
seems clear that the actual allocation has fallen well short of this. However, financial subsidies alone cannot
make a major difference; industry commentators cite the need for institutional reforms such as
improvements in the rural education system and devolution of political power to local decision makers.
Trying to push beef production. In 2013, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture released a Master Plan for “the
stabilization of the grain market”, as part of its Agribusiness–2020 program. In it the Ministry sets targets for
grain production, consumption and exports between 2013 and 2020. These targets include a projected shift
from wheat to ‘feed crops’ in order to support the planned expansion of the beef industry.
But, there is a big question mark due to the economic slowdown and lower oil price. The major question
now is how much the current slowdown in the economy and the decline in oil/gas revenues will disrupt or
delay that plan? This is something we are likely to hear only after the forthcoming presidential election and
when a revised strategy to a) survive the economic downturn and b) a plan for recovery, is formulated.
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Doing business in Kazakhstan
Investment in Kazakhstan is not without problems. Several foreign corporates have entered into disputes
with the country over alleged violations of environmental regulations, tax laws, transfer pricing practices and
investment clauses. Many foreign investors have also complained of irregular application of laws and
regulations in the country, interpreting regulatory pressures as an effort to extract bribes. Kazakhstan is
ranked 126 out of 175 countries in the latest Transparency International Corruption Perception Index survey.
A problem for all CIS countries. Corruption and the perception of a high level of corruption amongst
bureaucrats and in the court system is a problem almost all emerging economies have to deal with. The poor
perception of corruption is a particular problem amongst the former Soviet states and is a limiting factor for
inward investment. Kazakhstan ranks 126 in the Transparency International Index (see below) out of a total of
176 countries. It ranks marginally better than Russia and marginally worse than the other two members of the
Eurasian Union, Belarus and Armenia.
Corruption Perception Index
2014 ‐ Score Position* 2013 ‐ Score 2012 ‐ Score
Mongolia 39 80 38 36
Armenia 37 94
Belarus 31 119 29 31
Kazakhstan 29 126 26 28
Azerbaijan 29 126 28 27
Russia 27 136 28 28
Kyrgyzstan 27 136 24 24
Ukraine 26 142 25 26
Tajikstan 23 152 22 22
Uzbekistan 18 166 17 17Turkmenistan 17 169 17 17
Source: Transparency International
* based on a survey of 175 countries
Kashagan is partly delayed because of disputes. One of the reasons why the Kashagan project is taking so
long (see the Oil section on page 27) is because of allegations of state interference and ownership disputes.
However, all now appear to have been resolved.
World Bank survey. Kazakhstan is ranked 77 in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Survey for 2015. The
table below shows the individual sector breakdown.
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World Bank Ease of Doing Business in Kazakhstan*Starting a new business Registering Property Getting credit
Rank 55 Rank 14 Rank 71
Procedures 6 Procedures 4 Legal rights index (0‐12) 3
Time (days) 10 Time (days) 11 Depth of credit Info (0‐6) 7
Cost (% of income/capita) 0.5% Cost (% of income per capita) 0.1% Public registry coverage (% of adults) 0.0%
Min Capital (% income/capita) 0.0% Private registry (% of adults) 51.7%
Construction permits Enforcing contracts Protecting investors
Rank 154 Rank 30 Rank 25
Procedures 25 Procedures 36 Extent of disclosure (0‐10) 7
Time (days) 156 Time (days) 370 Extent of Director liability (0‐10) 6
Cost (% of warehouse value) 1.5% Cost (% of income p/capita) 22.0% Ease of Sharholder suits (0‐10) 7
Strength of investor protection (0‐10) 6.6
Getting electricity Paying Taxes Trading across borders
Rank 97 Rank 17 Rank 185
Procedures 6 Payments per year 6 Documents to export 10
Time (days) 88 Time (hours) 188 Days to export 79
Cost (% of income/capita) 57% Total tax payment, % 28.6% Cost to export (US$ per container) $5,285
(Labour tax rate) 11.2% Documents to import 12
(Profit tax) 15.9% Days to import 67
Cost to import (US$ per container) $5,265
Source: IFC, World Bank.
* 2014/15 Ease of Doing Business report
Some good areas … The country ranks very favorably in the areas of registering a property and starting a new
business and relatively well in the topic of contract enforcement.
… many are bad. Where it fails badly is in the time and cost of getting a construction permit, getting access to
electricity and in the difficulty and cost of importing/exporting goods.
Mid Table for CIS. Compared to the other CIS states, Kazakhstan ranks about mid‐table.
World Bank ‐ C.I.S. Countries*Country Ranking
Armenia 45
Belarus 57
Russia 62
Kazakhstan 77
Azerbaijan 80
Ukraine 96
Kyrgyzstan 102
Uzbekistan 141
Source: World Bank
* Ease of Doing Business 2014/15
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Major industries
Kazakhstan’s major industry is the extraction and export of hydrocarbons. Currently, the oil and gas sectors
account for approximately 30% of GDP, contribute 50% of budget revenues and represent 60% of the value of
exports. While the government maintains that it is following a plan to create greater diversification in the
economy, relatively little actual progress has been achieved over the past decade in terms of headline
numbers or oil/gas dependency and vulnerability.
Kashagan could double exports. The problem of oil dependency may get worse in the coming years, in fact it
is very likely to, when the giant Kashagan oil deposit starts to produce (see below). At full capacity the deposit
is expected to be able to produce close to 1.5 million barrels per day. That would almost double current
production and exports. The country’s budget would benefit greatly, as would the headline indicators, but oil
dependency and future vulnerability would also greatly increase.
The big question is about the export route and destination. China makes no secret of its wish to purchase the
bulk of that oil as it looks to boost its energy security via fixed pipelines. The route via Russia is already the
biggest and Kazakhstan will not wish to add more volume; in any event, so long as the Bosphorus by‐pass
pipes are not built, as there is already considerable congestion via that exit route. China’s competition is a
parallel pipeline along the BTC pipe to Ceyhan in Turkey or, possibly, via a displacement scheme with Iran, to
India. No decision has yet been made but the pressure on Astana is clearly building from all interested parties.
Diversified export routes. An oil pipeline linking the Tengiz oil field, in western Kazakhstan, to the Russian
Black Sea port of Novorossiysk opened in 2001. This is the CPC pipeline. In 2008 Kazakhstan also began
pumping some oil exports through the Baku‐Tbilisi‐Ceyhan (CTC) pipeline, as part of a drive to lessen its
dependence on Russia as a transit country. A pipeline to China, the first ever into China, opened in late 2005.
Kazakhstan Pipes Oil to Russia & China
Source: OilGeoPolitics
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Some oil fields are already unprofitable. The current question mark over the oil price is certainly a concern
and the Deputy Minister of Energy recently said that the prime cost of oil production in the country averages
about US$50 per barrel. Thus, oil production could already be unprofitable at some fields. He also said the
customs duty on oil export will be cut from US$80 to US$60 per metric ton, according to a formula based on
the current oil price. He said the reduction will take place as soon as the parliament adopts the revised
budget.
Another sign of problems in the oil sector. Russia's Lukoil recently said it will take China’s Sinopec to the
Court of Arbitration in London, after the latter opted out from a US$1.2 bln deal to purchase extraction assets
in Kazakhstan. Sinopec was supposed to acquire a 50% stake in Caspian Investment Resources Ltd (CIR), which
consolidated four extraction assets with estimated reserves of 160 mln tons of hydrocarbons. Sinopec already
owns the other 50% in CIR, and according to unnamed sources cited by gazeta.ru, the company quit the deal
due to a decline in oil prices. Lukoil insists that Sinopec breached the sales contract in which it was obliged to
acquire the asset by the end of 2014.
Oil sector
30 bln barrels of reserves. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2014), Kazakhstan has 30
bln barrels of proven reserves of crude oil. This represents 1.8% of total world reserves. The country produces
approximately 1.75 million barrels per day, making Kazakhstan the 12th largest producer in the world, and
exports approximately 1.5 million barrels. Most of the oil is exported via the CPC Pipeline, however
Kazakhstan also exports directly to China, through the very first direct oil pipe into that country, launched in
2005.
Three large oil clusters. Kazakhstan’s three largest oil deposits are Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan, albeit
the latter is still not producing. Tengiz currently produces one third of total Kazakh oil production and,
together with the Karachaganak deposit, they account for over half of current production. See separate
comments about the major oil deposits below.
Note: the average daily oil production data in the table below is from the annual BP Statistical Review and
there are slight variances with the data released by the country’s State Statistics Committee. The big jump in
forecasts by the end of this decade is based on the assumption that Kashagan will then be fully operational
(see comment later)
Kazakhstan Oil Statistics ‐ Thousand barrels per day
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2020E
Production 1,530 1,660 1,740 1,760 1,720 1,785 1,770 1,760 1,800 3,000
Consumption 230 190 200 260 270 287 290 285 290 330
Net Exports 1,300 1,470 1,540 1,500 1,450 1,498 1,480 1,475 1,510 2,670
Source: BP, World Bank, Macro‐Advisory estimates
Export destinations. Kazakhstan’s major export markets are Italy (17.7 mln tons), China (10.6 mln tons), the
Netherlands (7.9 mln tons), Austria (6.4 mln tons) and France (6.1 mln tons).
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Tengiz
The biggest oil producer. Production in the Tengiz oil field is expected to reach 26.7 mln tons in 2015, similar
to last years’ output but down from 27.1 mln tons produced in 2013. The reason for the decline, and lack of
growth, is the protracted maintenance work at the field. The deputy Energy Minister said recently that the
decision on the next stage of the field’s development should be finalized this year. The plan is that the work
will become operational in 2021, at which time output may expand to 38 mln tons annually.
Tengizchevroil is a joint venture between the companies in the table below. The JV was formed in April 1993
when the Kazakhstan government granted it an exclusive 40‐year right to develop the Tengiz and
Korolevskove oil deposits, both of which are located in the north‐eastern part of the Caspian.
Tengizchevroil OwnershipCompany Domicile % of Project
Chevron US 50.00%
ExxonMobil US 25.00%
KazMunaiGas Kazakhstan 20.00%
LukArco Russia 5.00%
Source: Tengizchevroil
Could have substantially greater reserves. The Tengiz reservoir, discovered in 1979, is 19 km (12 mi) wide and
21 km (13 mi) long. The city of Atyrau 350 kilometres (220 mi) north of Tengiz is the main transport hub for
Tengiz oil. It is estimated that the deposit may, in total, hold as much as 25 billion barrels of oil (not fully
proven). However, its proven recoverable reserves of 6 to 9 billion barrels already make it the sixth‐largest oil
field in the world.
Suffers from high sulphur content. One of the issues facing the consortium is the high amount of sulphur (up
to 17%) contained in oil from Tengiz. An estimated 6 million tons of sulphur by‐product are stored in the form
of large sulphur blocks and about 4,000 tons a day are being added. The government keeps threatening to
impose heavy fines for alleged breaches in the way the sulphur is stored. Oil from the Tengiz field is primarily
routed to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline.
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Kashagan
One of the biggest oil deposits in the world. The Kashagan oil field, discovered in 2000, is located in the
Kazakhstan sector of the Caspian Sea and extends over a surface area of approximately 75 kilometers by 45
kilometers. The reservoir lies some 4,200 meters below the shallow waters of the northern part of the Caspian
Sea. It is considered the world's largest discovery in the last 30 years. It is estimated that the Kashagan Field
has recoverable reserves of about 13 billion barrels. Harsh conditions, including sea ice during the winter,
temperature variation ranging from −35 to 40 C (−31 to 104 F), extremely shallow water and high levels of
hydrogen sulphide also makes it one of the most challenging projects to bring online and, with US$50 billion
already spent on the project, one of the most expensive ever.
Kashaghan ‐ Built on Artificial Islands
Source: Reuters
Could double national output. When engineering problems are resolved (see below), initial production is
expected to reach 250,000 barrels per day and eventually to reach a rate of 1.5 million barrels per day.
Ten years over schedule already. The project was originally scheduled to start production in 2005, but was
delayed due to the huge technical challenges. The field briefly started production in September 2013 only to
close 13 days later because a sulphur gas leak caused the pipes to crack. The pipes have to be replaced under
a US$1.8 bln project awarded to Italy’s Saipem. The company will build two 950 km pipelines to connect an
onshore plant with the artificial island on the Caspian Sea. It is now hoped that the project may finally start to
produce oil in late 2016 or early 2017.
Kashagan OwnershipCompany Domicile % of Project
ENI Italy 16.81%
KazMunaiGas Kazakhstan 16.81%
Shell UK/Holland 16.81%
Total France 16.81%
ExxonMobil US 16.81%
CNPC China 8.40%
Inpex Japan 7.56%
Source: NCOC
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Gas
Kazakhstan has proven gas reserves (BP) of 53.9 tln cubic feet or 1.5 tln cubic meters. The largest gas deposit
is the Karachaganak Field, which is located about 150 km (93 miles) east of Oral (Uralsk) in the northwest of
Kazakhstan. However, despite a near four‐fold increase in natural gas production over the past decade, dry
gas production has remained stable, as more than 70% of the gas produced is re‐injected into oil fields to
enhance production.
Modest exports. Most of gas produced meets domestic demand; however, a small amount continues to be
exported to Russia and China. Following the development of a new pipeline to China exports to that country
are likely to increase in the future.
Poor pipeline infrastructure. Due to increased consumption and a lack of countrywide infrastructure,
Kazakhstan is also an importer of gas. Due to the absence or underdevelopment of infrastructure linking
demand centers to production centers, the country relies on gas imports to meet domestic demand. In 2012,
Kazakhstan imported 3.8 bcm of natural gas, primarily from Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Kazakhstan Gas Statistics – Billion cubic meters2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Production 16.90 16.40 15.90 17.50 18.40 18.50 18.40 18.50 18.60
Consumption 8.90 8.60 9.30 9.60 10.40 11.40 11.50 11.40 11.80
Net Exports 8.00 7.80 6.60 7.90 8.00 7.10 6.90 6.50 6.80
Source: BP, World Bank, Macro‐Advisory estimates
Gas comes from the oil fields. Kazakhstan’s largest oil fields, Tengiz and Karachaganak, account for a large
majority of the gas produced in the country. Going forward, the development of other fields such as Kashagan
and Imashevskoye will boost domestic supplies and provide further volumes for enhanced oil recovery. These
two fields are forecast to produce more than 1.0 tcf of dry gas by 2021. It is estimated that the Karachaganak
field contains 1.24 bln tons of liquids and 1.37 tln cubic meters of natural gas. The ownership structure is in
the table below.
Karachaganak OwnershipCompany Domicile % of Project
BG UK 29.50%ENI Italy 29.50%Chevron US 18.00%LUKoil Russia 13.50%KazMunaiGas Kazakhstan 10.00%Source: Karachaganak
Electricity
Mostly coal‐fired. The majority of Kazakhstan’s power generation comes from coal‐fired power plants located
in the north of the country. Kazakhstan’s total installed generating capacity is approximately 19.5 GW, of
which 85% is coal‐fired, while the remaining 15% is hydropower. Total electricity generation is 81.2 bln kWh.
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No nuclear power. Kazakhstan’s only nuclear power plant, a BN‐350 nuclear reactor at Mangyshlak, was
decommissioned in 2001. As Kazakhstan has some of the largest uranium deposits in the world and is the
largest uranium producer globally, there are plans to build additional nuclear plants. However, little progress
has been made. Kazakhstan’s grid is operated by state‐controlled Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating
Company, which is responsible for electric transmission and network management. There are 15 regional
electricity distribution companies, many of which are privately owned.
Mining
World’s biggest uranium producer. Kazakhstan has one of the richest mineral reserves in the world, and is
among the top‐ten players for a number of major minerals. The country mines a significant quantity of coal,
bauxite, copper, iron, diamonds and gold. Kazakhstan is also the largest producer worldwide of beryllium,
tantalum, barite, uranium, cadmium and arsenic.
Consistent annual growth is expected in the mining industry through 2018 reaching a value of US$35 bln.
Copper output is expected to grow the fastest in terms of output over the next four years. Although the
country has the potential to be a major mineral producer, significant investment in infrastructure and
technology is needed for long‐term growth.
Agriculture
Over half (70%) of Kazakhstan’s agricultural land is permanent pasture, with the remainder classified as arable
land. Of the 23 million hectares of arable land available almost two‐thirds is devoted to grain production. The
average annual wheat production is 13 mln tons, with a large portion exported (9 mln tons in 2015E) to
Europe, North Africa and Central Asia. The country also grows barley, corn, oats and rice.
Kazakhstan is a top ten global wheat and flour exporter. The main grain crop is milling wheat, which is
typically high quality. The country produces approximately 27 mln tons annually and exports nearly 15 mln
tons. In 2014 the volume of investments in Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector exceeded KZT166 bln, up 17% YoY.
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Social issues
Increasing number of violent clashes. Kazakhstan used to be a stable country with almost no history of
political activism or social protests. That all changed however in 2011 and, since then, there has been an
increase in labor and social protests, suggesting that the strong rapport Nazarbayev once held with the
population, especially in the poorer regions, is slowly fading. Hence, the clear motivation to call an early
election and to use the process to try to put a planned succession in place.
In 2011 Kazakhstan suffered its worst violence since independence. The so‐called Zhanaozen tragedy, where
clashes between rioters and police resulted in 16 dead and at least 100 injured. The riots followed a seven‐
month strike by oil workers, the longest in Kazakh history. Following the Zhanaozen tragedy, the government
re‐assessed its social policy, announcing funding projects to raise living standards and to increase economic
opportunities in industry‐focused towns. The government also clamped down on opposition parties and the
media.
Most recently Kazakhs have protested against an overhaul of the pension system. Nazarbayev ordered the
transfer of assets of 11 pension funds (10 of which are private) into a single fund, to be managed by the
National Bank of Kazakhstan. The plan also highlighted plans to align the retirement ages for men and women,
raising the retirement age for female workers to 63 versus 58 currently. The new fund will focus on domestic
infrastructure projects rather than on overseas investments. Much of the population views the changes as an
attempt to extract wealth from the population as well as a loss of independence of personal investment
choices.
More clashes are expected as the economy deteriorates. It is very likely that, in the future, Kazakhstan may
experience an increase in the number of protests based on specific issues, such as the retirement age
question, as well as general social and budget issues. Hence, the need to get the presidential election
completed one year early.
Income gap is nearly four‐times. At the end of last year the average nominal income of the population
amounted to KZT72,201 (US$390) according to data from the state Statistics Committee. The ratio between
the maximum and minimum values of nominal income by regions was 3.7. At the end of 2013 the ratio stood
at 3.6 times.
Inter‐ethnic clashes also rising. Earlier in February, inter‐ethnic clashes were sparked in the Saryagash District
of southern Kazakhstan after a 30‐year‐old resident of Yntymak village was killed. News agency Eurasianet.org
accused the authorities of blocking reports of the clash and suggested this is a sign of sensitivities in Astana
over friction between the country’s 140 ethnic groups. Tajiks migrated to southern Kazakhstan in the 1930s.
At present, according to official data, the Tajik population is estimated at 60,000 people. The recent clash was
the second such case of ethnic riots in the past half a year. During the summer, fights and scuffles broke out
between Uzbek and Kazakh nationals in southern Kazakhstan.
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Managing Islamic extremism is also a challenge. Ethnic Kazakhs, a mix of Turkic and Mongol nomadic tribes
have rarely been united as a single nation. Through the influx of immigrants from the 18th Century (see the
chronology section on page 40) until the end of communism non‐ethnic Kazakhs have often outnumbered the
indigenous population. Since 2000, a repatriation program has encouraged ethnic Kazakhs to return, making
the Kazakhs a majority once more. However, this democratic shift has destabilized the religious diversity,
creating a state, which is now more than 70% Muslim. Though rare, there have been intermittent attacks by
Islamic extremists throughout Nazarbayev’s presidency. Managing Islamic revivalism is seen as one of the key
challenges for the country. In August 2007, the government moved quickly to arrest, and try, 30 alleged
Islamists accused of belonging to the banned group Hizb ut‐Tahri. This group advocates the setting up of an
Islamic state across Central Asia.
Almaty is Kazakhstan's Biggest City and Former Capital
Source: Voxpopuli.kz
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International & regional relations
Multi‐vector politics. Kazakhstan has close economic and political ties with Russia, China and Turkey. The
government attempts to remain on good political and economic terms worldwide. In retaliation against any
loss of sovereignty to Russia’s closer ties with the country, the Kazakh elites increasingly use the term ‘multi‐
vector foreign policy’, emphasizing the country’s orientation towards China, Europe, the United States and the
Turkic‐speaking world.
Multi‐vector language. President Nazarbayev has also raised concerns of the neglect of the Russian language
in Kazakhstan, threatening the stability and sovereignty of the country. He consequently supports a trilingual
state with Kazakh, English and Russian as its official languages.
Russia and Kazakhstan remain good, but conditional, economic and political allies. Kazakhstan is a founder
member of the Customs Union, which is now becoming the Eurasian Union. However, while not critical of
Moscow’s alleged involvement in Ukraine, Kazakhstan did not support Russia’s position during the UN General
Assembly vote on Crimea nor Russia’s countersanctions against the EU and refused to raise custom tariffs on
Ukrainian goods. Kazakhstan was also the only CIS state to send representatives to monitor the Ukrainian
presidential election.
Founder member of the Eurasian Union. In May 2014 Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia signed a treaty creating
the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This came into effect on 1 January, 2015. Nazarbayev has since
remarked that Kazakhstan ‘reserves the right to leave the Eurasian Economic Union if it poses a threat to the
country’s independence’, emphasizing the economic rather than political benefits of the union to Kazakhstan.
Also, to great surprise, he floated the idea of inviting Turkey to join the Customs Union on the day of the
signing ceremony. He cited such a move as necessary to balance Russia’s dominance.
No direct Islamic threat. Kazakhstan does not have a border with Afghanistan but regularly takes part in
military and security drills with its neighbors to prepare for any threat of an increase in militant Islamic activity
in the region. Despite the tough action against the Hizb ut‐Tahri group in 2007, the country is not considered
to be at risk from Islamic groups or from terrorism at this time.
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Further Reading
Title: Once in Kazakhstan: The Snow Leopard Emerges (published 2005)
Author: Keith Rosten
Critically regarded as the best book covering the emergence of Kazakhstan as an independent nation. It covers
both the successes and failures of the early state while interweaving the challenges and exhilaration of living
in Kazakhstan with the historical backdrop of a nation grappling with its independence. There are stories
about horse heads in the Central Market, guns on the ski slopes, and to the first‐ever parliamentary elections.
There are lots of photographs of the people, places, and monuments of the country.
Title: In Search of Kazakhstan: The Land that Disappeared (published 2008)
Author: Christopher Robbins
Probably the most popular of the books about Kazakhstan, it is also sometimes called Apples are from
Kazakhstan. This is a travelogue, which is written as both an informative and entertaining piece.
Title: Kazakhstan and Twenty Years of Independence (published 2012)
Author: Jonathan Aitken
A more current version of “Once in Kazakhstan”, it also covers the past 22 years of the country’s efforts
towards statehood after breaking out of the Soviet Union. The difference with this book is that the author, a
former British government cabinet minister, gets much better access to senior officials.
He says he probed the darkest corners of the fading Soviet mentality in areas such as the prisons, the KGB
stations and the torture cases. He has comments on the country's cultural renaissance, particularly in Almaty
with its four orchestras, 19 theatres, 27 concert halls and Opera Houses. He attempts to unravel the economic
and political surprises which came from the Caspian oil boom with its knock on effects on foreign policy, GDP,
and political reform.
Aiken also wrote a biography of the president titled: “Nazarbayev and the Making of Kazakhstan”.
Title: New Central Asia: The impact of international actors (published 2014)
Editor: Emilian Kavalski
This is a collection of 12 essays, each one looking at some specific aspect of the struggle for influence (China,
the US, Russia, etc) as well as the contagion from Afghanistan and the role of militant Islam in Central Asia
today.
The blurb says “The book examines Central Asia's place in world affairs and how international politics of state‐
building has affected the Asian region. It also attempts to generalize and contextualize the ''Central Asian
experience'' and re‐evaluate its comparative relevance, by explaining the complex dynamics of Central Asian
politics through a detailed analysis of the effects of major international actors – both international
organizations as well as current and rising great powers”.
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Title: The Great Game: On Secret Service in High Asia (published 1990)
Author: Peter Hopkirk
This is the classic history of the battle, which lasted nearly a century, for control across the region between
Victorian British and Tsarist Russian. Those engaged in this shadowy struggle called it 'The Great Game', a
phrase immortalized by Kipling. When play first began the two rival empires lay nearly 2,000 miles apart. By
the end, some Russian outposts were within 20 miles of India. This classic book tells the story of the Great
Game through the exploits of the young officers, both British and Russian, who risked their lives playing it.
Disguised as holy men or native horse‐traders, they mapped secret passes, gathered intelligence and sought
the allegiance of powerful khans. Some never returned. The violent repercussions of the Great Game are still
evident in Central Asia today.
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Other Kazakhstan
Aral Sea
The Sea has nearly disappeared. One of Kazakhstan’s famous features is the Aral Sea, or to be more accurate,
the shrinking Aral Sea. The map below shows how the sea has shrunk from 1960 to the present day. The Sea
was formed approximately 5.5 million years ago. It took Soviet engineers a mere couple of decades to destroy
it.
The Aral Sea: A Shadow of its Former Size
Source: Mappery.com
Used to cover 68,000 Sq Km. The name roughly translates as "Sea of Islands", referring to over 1,100 islands
that once dotted its waters. The original drainage basin encompasses Uzbekistan and parts of Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. It was formerly one of the four largest lakes in the world with an
area of 68,000 km2 (26,300 sq. miles), the Aral Sea has been steadily shrinking since the 1960s after the rivers
that fed it were diverted as part of Soviet irrigation projects. By 2007, it had declined to 10% of its original
size, splitting into four lakes: the North Aral Sea, the eastern and western basins and one smaller lake
between them. By 2009, the south‐eastern lake had disappeared and the south‐western lake had retreated to
a thin strip at the extreme west of the former southern sea; in subsequent years, occasional water flows have
led to the south‐eastern lake sometimes being replenished to a small degree. Satellite images taken in August
2014 have revealed that for the first time the eastern basin of the Aral Sea had completely dried up and is
now called the Aralkum desert.
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Parts are being saved. Kazakhstan has been engaged in a major project to try to save and replenish the North
Aral Sea and built a dam in 2005. By 2008 the water level in this lake had risen by 12 m (39 ft) compared to
2003. Salinity has dropped, and fish are again found in sufficient numbers for some fishing to be viable. The
North Aral Sea had a maximum depth of 42 m (138 ft) as of 2008. However, what remains is also heavily
polluted, with consequent public health problems. The shrinking sea is reported to have caused local climate
change, with summers becoming hotter and drier, and winters colder and longer.
This Used to be Part of the Aral Sea
Source: National Geographic
Space port
First space launches were from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan owns the largest (and oldest) operational space
launch facility in the world, the Baikonur Cosmodrome. Built in the 1950s by the Soviet Union, Baikonur
launched the first manned spacecraft in history (Vostok 1) and the world’s first orbital spacecraft (Sputnik 1).
Leased to the Russian government until 2050, it remains a
busy spaceport with many missions, including missions to the
International Space Station, launched on a continuous basis.
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Nuclear testing grounds
The Soviet nuke testing ground. A favorite with so‐called “dark tourism” adventurers is the old Soviet nuclear
testing ground at Semipalatinsk (now named Semey), located over 18,000 Sq km in northeastern Kazakhstan
along the Irtysh River. The Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS or Semipalatinsk‐21), also known as "The Polygon",
was the primary testing venue for Soviet nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests at
Semipalatinsk from 1949 until 1989. The full impact of radiation exposure only came to light since the test site
closed in 1991. From 1996 to 2012, a secret joint operation of Kazakh, Russian, and American scientists and
engineers secured the waste plutonium in tunnels in the mountains.
Soviet Union's Semipalatinsk Nuclear Testing Ground
Source: Wikipedia maps
Some over ground evidence remains. The most significant individual site within the Polygon, and the one that
most (Dark‐Tourism) visitors are primarily steered towards, is the one called Opytnoe Pole. It was here that
the very first Soviet atomic bomb was set off in 1949 – i.e. it's the Soviet equivalent of the Trinity site in the
US. However, unlike at Trinity, there's no marker at Opytnoe Pole. However, there are quite a few striking
concrete remains of the test site infrastructure. The most visible ones are rows of concrete towers, which at
the time of testing housed various measuring equipment. These are aligned almost on straight lines at
different distances from "ground zero". Some closer to that spot show clear signs of charring. On closer
inspection, you can even see that the outer surface of the concrete shows bubbles – where evidently the heat
of the blast made the concrete melt.
Winter World University Games
Winter student games in 2017. Almaty, the biggest city in Kazakhstan, will host the Winter World University
Games in 2017. The Games in Almaty are advertised as another step to enhance Kazakhstan’s international
prestige as outlined in the 2030 Strategic Development Plan. Presumably, a successful games will then see
Kazakhstan make a bid for the main Winter Olympics.
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Appendix: Chronology of key events in Kazakhstan’s history
Origins
1st‐8th centuries Turkic‐speaking and Mongol tribes invade and settle in what is now Kazakhstan and
Central Asia.
8th century Arab invaders introduce Islam.
1219‐24 Mongol tribes led by Genghis Khan invade Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Later, they
assimilate with Turkic tribes, which make up the majority in their empire. With the
formation of the Kazakh khanate, the Kazakhs emerge as a distinct ethnic group.
Early 17th century Kazakhs split into three tribal unions, the Elder, Middle and Lesser Zhuzes, or
Hordes, which were led by Khans.
1731‐42 The Khans of the three Zhuzes formally join Russia in pursuit of protection from
invasions from the east by the Mongols.
1868‐1916 Thousands of Russian and Ukrainian peasants are brought in to settle Kazakh lands;
the first industrial enterprises are set up.
1916 A major anti‐Russian rebellion is repressed, with about 150,000 people killed and
more than 300,000 fleeing abroad.
Soviet Union
1920 Kazakhstan becomes an autonomous republic of the USSR. Until 1925 it is called
the Kyrgyz Autonomous Province to distinguish its people from the Cossacks.
Intensive industrialization and collectivization of agriculture. More than 1 million
people die from starvation as a result of the campaign to settle nomadic Kazakhs
and collectivize agriculture.
1940s Hundreds of thousands of Koreans, Crimean Tatars, Germans and others forcibly
moved to Kazakhstan.
1954‐62 About two million people, mainly Russians, move to Kazakhstan during the
campaign to develop virgin lands launched by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev; the
proportion of ethnic Kazakhs in the republic drops to 30%.
1961 The first manned spacecraft launched from the Baikonur space launch site in
central Kazakhstan.
1989 Nursultan Nazarbayev, an ethnic Kazakh, becomes head of the CPK; parliament
adopts a new law on language, proclaiming Kazakh the state language and Russian
a language of inter‐ethnic communication.
1990 The Supreme Soviet elects Nazarbayev first Kazakh president and on 25 October
declares state sovereignty.
1991 – December Nazarbayev wins uncontested presidential elections; Kazakhstan declares
independence from the Soviet Union and joins the Commonwealth of Independent
States.
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Independent Kazakhstan
1992 Kazakhstan admitted into the United Nations and the OSCE’s predecessor.
1997 Major oil agreements secured with China. The Kazakh capital is moved from Almaty
in the south to Akmola (formerly Tselinograd) in the north. In 1988 the new capital
is renamed Astana. Constitution amended, extending the president's term in office
from five to seven years and removing upper age limit for the president.
2001 The first major pipeline for transporting oil from the Caspian Sea to world markets
opens in March, running from the huge Tengiz oil field in western Kazakhstan to
Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
2001 – June Kazakhstan joins China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in launching
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), aimed at fighting ethnic and religious
militancy and promoting trade.
2004 – May Deal signed with China on the construction of an oil pipeline to the Chinese border.
2004 – Sept/Oct President Nazarbayev retains control over the lower house of parliament as his Nur
Otan party wins a majority of seats in elections, which international observers
criticize as flawed. The parliament resigns in protest at the conduct of voting.
2005 – January A court orders the dissolution of Democratic Choice, one of the country's main
opposition parties. The party is accused of breaching state security by calling on
supporters to protest against parliamentary election results. Opposition groups join
together to form For a Just Kazakhstan movement.
2005 – December Nazarbayev returned for further term with over 90% of the vote.
2007 – May Parliament votes to allow President Nazarbayev to stay in office for an unlimited
number of terms. Nazarbayev fires son‐in‐law Rakhat Aliyev in an apparent power
struggle.
2007 – August Elections hand President Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party all seats in the lower house
of parliament. Observers say the conduct of the vote improved since the previous
election, but still did not meet international standards of fairness.
2008 – March President Nazarbayev's exiled former son‐in‐law, Rakhat Aliyev, is sentenced to 20
years imprisonment in absentia after being found guilty of plotting a coup. Aliyev
denies the charges, saying they are politically motivated.
2009 – June A law tightens control over the internet by ruling that chat rooms, blogs and public
forums count as mass media. This means a blogger could break the law by
expressing a view.
2009 – December Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Nazarbayev unveil the Kazakh section of
a natural gas pipeline joining Central Asia to China.
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2010 – May Parliament approves a bill granting more powers to President Nazarbayev, granting
him the title of "leader of the nation" and immunity from prosecution.
2010 – July The customs union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan comes into force after
Belarus ratifies a key customs code.
2011 – February President Nazarbayev calls an early presidential election, after a planned
referendum on allowing him to stay on unopposed until 2020 is ruled
unconstitutional. Nazarbayev wins re‐election in a poll boycotted by the opposition.
2011 – December Clashes between striking workers and police in the western oil town of Zhanaozen
leave 16 people dead. The government declares a state of emergency. It is lifted in
January 2012.
Source: BBC, Macro‐Advisory Ltd
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43
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Email: cjw@macro‐advisory.com
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Email: vmg@macro‐advisory.com
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Website: http://macro‐advisory.com/
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