A Historical Scan of Albertas Land Use Context for the Alberta Land Institute Calgary September 17th, 2012

A Historical Scan of Alberta’s Land Use

Context for theAlberta Land Institute

CalgarySeptember 17th, 2012

Alberta’s Land Use Luminescence

Alberta

Alberta Land Institute 2

Alberta is Firing on All Land Use Cylinders• 1-2 million head of cattle harvested

• 2-3 million head of swine harvested

• 100-120 million kg of poultry harvested

• 25-35 million tonne of crop harvested

• 20-25 million m3 of timber harvested

• 150-160 billion m3 of natural gas produced

• 25-35 million m3 of conventional oil produced

• 60-80 million m3 of bitumen produced

• 25-35 million tonne of coal produced

• 1200-1500 petajoules of electricity produced


Alberta’s 20th Century Transformation

• 11,000,000 ha Cultivated Cropland (17%)

• 14,000,000 ha for Livestock Grazing Lands (21%)

• 24,200,000 ha of AB’s Forests within FMA (36%)

• 225,000 ha for Cities and Towns• 340,000 ha in Acreages

• 1,100,000 ha direct footprint for Energy Sector

• 400,000 ha direct footprint for Transportation

• 30,000 ha direct footprint in Recreation

LAND-USE FOOTPRINT

All Landuses: 51,200,000 ha (77% of AB)


Untitled

Page 3

0 50 100 150 200

Simulated Years into Future

1:

1:

1:

0

1000000

2000000

F Class ha[Energy]: 1 -

A History of Natural Resource Landuse

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

TrappingAgriculture

EnergyFirstNations

Forestry and Mining

Rela

tive

Impo

rtan

ce

High

Moderate

Low

BisonHunting


19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

2010Year 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

A History of Alberta’s Population

AB Population

Human Population Density (people/km2)

Pre-industrial19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010

0.001 - 0.0260.027 - 0.0920.093 - 0.3090.310 - 0.7420.743 - 1.3941.395 - 3.0383.039 – 10,715.150


Calgary’s Expanding Footprint

9337 ha

58,057 ha

294,355 ha

1951

2007

2057

Calgary


A History of Forest Management Agreements

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

ha

1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

1905

1915

1925

1935

19451955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005


19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

20101910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

A History of Alberta’s Energy FootprintTotal area (ha) of well FT

% Well FT0.001 - 0.0330.034 - 0.0960.097 - 0.1880.189 - 0.3080.309 - 0.4850.486 - 0.9510.952 - 10.488

Pre-industrial19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010


19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

20101910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

A History of Alberta’s Transportation Network

% Transportation FT0.001 - 0.2600.261 - 0.5350.536 - 0.9280.929 - 1.3821.383 - 1.8971.898 - 2.3842.385 - 6.059

Pre-industrial19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010


19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

2010Year 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

A History of Alberta’s Cropland% Cropland

% Cropland0.01 - 10.2010.21 - 29.4129.42 - 49.8749.88 - 64.6564.66 - 76.2176.22 - 85.6985.7 - 96.47

Pre-industrial19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010

11

19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

2010Year 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

A History of Alberta’s Cattle PopulationAB Cattle PopulationPre-industrial19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010

Cattle Density (animals/km2)0.001 - 0.2200.221 - 2.6652.666 - 9.1719.172 - 14.11014.111 - 21.57021.571 - 33.17833.179 – 16,991.955


19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

20101910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

A History of Alberta’s Water DemandAverage Water Use

(m3/ha)

Water Use (m3/ha)0.001 - 0.1050.106 - 0.4640.465 - 2.4722.473 - 6.8356.836 - 20.27220.273 - 93.73793.738 – 3,012.780

Does not include water use by insitu wells

Pre-industrial19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010


19101920

19301940

19501960

19701980

19902000

2010Year 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

A History of Alberta’s Water Quality

Water Index0.991 - 0.9990.979 - 0.9900.959 - 0.9780.894 - 0.9580.716 - 0.8930.533 - 0.7150.086 - 0.532

Pre-industrial19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010

Areas without a coloured grid cell have an index of 1 meaning no threat.

Average provincial response index


“Black Loam” Soils and Land Use Footprints

~In next 50 years, current policies lead to a net loss of ~900,000 ha of Alberta’s higher quality soils and cropland in the Edmonton to Calgary corridor


Loss of Surface Standing Water Area

•Historically, surface water viewed as impediment to crop production

•Potholes were systematically drained; ~70% of potholes in prairies are gone

•These wetlands are critical to soil recharge of water, storage of organics, and aquifer replenishment


The Intensification of Farming


Biodiversity Response Surface to Agriculture

ALCESSimulations

Alberta AgricultureAssessment


White Area Wildlife Species that are Listed

• Swift Fox

• Sage Grouse

• Prairie Rattlesnake

• Burrowing Owl

• Bull Trout

• Piping Plover

• Leopard Frog

• Ferruginous Hawk


Gross DomesticProduct

($)

True Economic Performance($ over Time)

Ecological Services Product(Time)

Commodity Production

(-) Commodity Production draws down Natural Capital

Natural Resource Accounts(+) Natural Capital fuels Commodity Production

A New Mandate and Philosophy


Documents

A Historical Scan of Albertas Land Use Context for the Alberta Land Institute Calgary September 17th, 2012