A Great Escape: finding our way out of the energy conundrum

Energy: A recap and a preview

• What is the “conundrum?”• What is energy & why does

it matter?• What has determined

today’s energy policies & fuel mix?

• To what degree can these be strategically-altered?

• What kinds of energy scenarios are out there?

• What we can do—if we want to do something?

What is the “conundrum?”

• Global energy demand will rise in the future

• Conventional energy supplies appear limited in the mid-term

• Countries might seek to control sources via military power

• Fossil fuels are implicated in climate change

• Fossil fuel consumption must be greatly reduced (80%?)

• Alternatives will not replace fossil fuels for some time

• Takes 40-50 years for new energy sources to mature

• What is likely to/going to happen?

What is energy & why does it matter?

• Everything relies on energy• Energy is capacity to do work• Energy transformed into heat

can be made to do work• But much is wasted in this

process• We want energy for the

services it can provide• We use least-cost forms of

energy to produce work• But energy quality is not

always matched to the task• Low-quality energy (solar) for

low-quality task (hot water)

What has determined today’s energy policies & fuel mix?

• Context & contingency: replacement

• Long-term political & economic commitments

• Investment in current sources

• “Tradition” of geopolitics

• Transfer of money• Greed • Path dependency

To what degree can these commitments systematically &

strategically changed?• Technological change is driven

by both politics & markets• Policy change is driven by

politics & interests• Social change is driven by

habit, custom & status• A crisis focuses mind & policy• But even crisis might not move

deeply-embedded interests• Experience with crisis & social

change is limited– World War II (reaction)– Soviet industrialization

(planned)– Marshall Plan (reaction)– Apollo program (reaction/plan)– U.S. Synfuels Corporation

(plan)

Consider the 50-year diffusion of solid-state consumer electronics

• Transistor was outcome of military-industrial research

• Early commercialization in late 1950s fostered innovation

• Replacements for bulky & energy-intensive vacuum tubes

• Moore’s Law: declining size of semiconductors & circuits

• Older devices adapted (radio, TV, computer)

• New devices invented (cellphone, MP3 players

• Cellphone has changed social practices & mores

• How deliberate or strategic was this?

Scenario-building can shed some light on trends & strategies

Energy scenarios• Business-as-usual• “Techno-explosion”• “Techno-stability”• “Permaculture”• “Decline & collapse”• “Muddling along”

Business-as-usual

• Assumes no effort to alter current policies

• Demand grows faster than supply

• Some new sources are put into play

• Geopolitics intervene• Climate change has

differential impacts

Business-as-usual

Is BAU feasible, let alone possible?

Notice the theological tones in this diagram

Here are

“Techno-explosion,” aka, “Don’t worry, be happy”

• Renewable, low-impact or other sources developed

• Energy demand no longer limited by supply

• Material growth spreads throughout the world

• Distribution of wealth becomes more even

• Rich get richer but so do the poor

• Perhaps even a progressive world state or federation

• This requires innovation, infrastucture replacement & development on a 20th century scale

“Techno-stability, aka”“Go with the flow”

• New, clean energy sources are developed & deployed

• Closed-loop recycling & low-impact goods emerge

• High wealth, but more even distribution

• Global population stabilizes & begins to slow decline

• New types of development & decentralized politics

• Growth is moderated/limited in the interest of stability

• This requires a fairly-high degree of state intervention

“Permaculture,” aka,“Small is beautiful”

• Intense conservation ethos spreads across the world

• Accompanied by relatively-moderate technological innovation

• Steady-state economy & radically-reduced Global North consumption

• Massive aid & investment to Global South

• Growing reliance on local resources & local sustainability

• Rise of cultural-political autonomy, pluralism, decentralization

• Geopolitics & nationalism decline in importance as political factors

• More even distribution of wealth, but at a much lower level

• This requires massive intervention at a community level, which is happening

• But scale of required change is daunting

“Decline & collapse,” aka, “That’s all, folks!”

• Global economy stagnates & then goes into decline

• No new energy sources are widely deployed

• Geopolitical struggles for resources break out

• Climate change kicks in with a vengeance

• Severe scarcity leads to general social disorder

• Political units fragment• Various regions go it

alone• Plausible, but not likely

“Muddling along”

• Gradual deployment of new energy resources

• Declining reliance on fossil fuels

• Differential economic growth across the world

• Uneven distribution of environmental impacts

• Growing but contained geopolitical tensions

• Not BAU but also not radical rapid change

What can we do—if we want to do something?

• Political & social activism & mobilization

• Fostering change in social beliefs & practices

• Establishing new norms• More-localized efforts &

projects• Documentation &

communication networks• Reproduction of

successful projects from elsewhere