A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre ... · A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre and fuel? Sten Nilsson 200th Anniversary of The Royal Academy

A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for

food, fibre and fuel?

Sten Nilsson

200th Anniversary of The Royal Academy of Agriculture and Forestry

Stockholm, 29-30 January 2013

CHANGING MIDDLE CLASS – ADDITIONALLY

3 BILLION IN 2030

FOOD CONSUMPTION

GLOBAL LIVESTOCK

Today: 60 billion – 2050: 100 billion

Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION – 2010-2040 + 30%

Source: Ray, C. Blog: Real Firewood Stacking (11 Dec 2012); and ExxonMobil – 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

VOLUMES OF NEW BIO-BASED PRODUCTS ?

WATER BALANCE 2030 in km3

Source: RatesToGo 2007-2011; and Charting Our Water Future, The Water Resources Group, 2010.

HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE

Source: Seto, KC et al, PNAS 109 (40) 16083-16088, 2 October 2012.

Additional land requirements by 2030:

120 million ha = area of South Africa

NATURE INFRASTRUCTURE – ECOLOGICAL

FOOTPRINT 2050 = 2.5 WORLDS

Source: McGlade, J., European Environment Agency, 2011.

• Finding new sources of supply of natural resources is becoming increasingly challenging and expensive

• Resources are increasingly linked. Changes in one resource impacts others

• Environmental factors increasingly constrain the utilization

• Increasing societal concerns over the utilization of the natural resources

• Meeting future demands will require a large expansion of supply

THE RESOURCE CHALLENGE

TOTAL LAND…

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

Note: The map indicates the share of each

grid-cell that is available for use

Not present

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

…subtracting built-up areas




Not present

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

…subtracting cultivated land




Not present

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

…subtracting forest areas




Not present

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

…excluding non-vegetated areas




Not present

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

…excluding protected areas




Undefined

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

Protected

…subtracting land with steep slopes




Undefined

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

Protected

…excluding climatically unsuit-able

or very marginal areas




Undefined

< 10%

10% - 30%

30% - 50%

50% - 70%

70% - 90%

> 90%

Water

Protected

Unproductive

Very marginal

2.1 billion ha left – Grasslands

Sources: IIASA,LUC (2007) and Pic: http://nrelscience.org/2012/02/19/are-all-grasslands-created-equal-predicting-grassland-

dynamics-in-china-based-on-us-grassland-models/

Density of ruminant livestock (cattle equiv./ha) – 700 mha available

Intensity of grass/scrub/wood land (%)

So

urc

e: G

AE

Z 2

00

7, II

AS

A-L

UC

/FA

O a

nd

FA

O,

20

05

.

WHERE DOES LAND COME FROM IN 2030?

HOW TO BALANCE THE DEMAND?

Availability

250-300 million ha

Biochemical

Industry

?

Agriculture Demand

200 million ha

Industrial Forestry

25 million ha

Bioenergy

290 million ha

Source: Nilsson (2007)

Deficit:

220-250 million ha

Lambin and Meyfroidt,

2011

Deficit: 0-435 million ha in 2030

based on unused land and additional

land needed.

With accumulated deforestation of

150-300 million ha in total, the land

deficit will be 0-285 million ha

IIASA and WWF, 2011

Business as usual, accumulated

deforestation by 2050 of 230 million

ha (no deficit of agricultural land)

McKinsey Global

Institute, 2011

Deficit of 175-220 million ha of

cropland in 2030 to cover food, feed,

and fuel demands (productivity

increase in agriculture: 1% per year)

LAND BALANCES

• We know nothing

Uncertainty in data sets greater than 50%

• We CAN fix it ‘We just have to do the right things in the right place’ is another argument.

Will we do it? Probably not…

• ‘There is a huge land use problem (200-300 mha deficit)

‘There is no unused land in reality’ (Persson 2007)

WHAT DOES ALL THIS TELL US?

LARGE SCALE LAND USE CONFLICTS

ALREADY EXIST

Number of hectares (millions) cross-referenced: ~70 million ha

Number of hectares (millions) reported: ~ 200 million ha

INTERNATIONAL LAND GRABBING

SINCE 2000

Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Large-Scale Land Acquisitions – An International Overview, Rights + Resources Institute,

18 Dec. 2012.

Oxfam (2012): 230 million ha

30% is forest land

DOMESTIC LAND GRABBING – INDIA

Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Land Acquisition and Related Disputes, Rights + Resources Institute, 18 Dec. 2012.

Additional land

requirements by 2030

(agrifuel, infrastructure,

extractive activities, non-

conventional energy):

11.5 million ha

corresponding to

4% of the total land area

AVERAGE AGRICULTURE LAND PRICES IN

US$ PER HA IN SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL

ha <7.26 7.26-24.2 24.2-72.6 72.6-242.0 242.0+

2006 6680 5580 4990 4280 3890

2012 12 260 10 080 8865 7880 7350

Source: Economic Agriculture Institute, Brazil, 2012.

Source: Kory Melby’s Brazilian Ag Consulting Services and Investment Tours, 1 Nov. 2012.

Average price relation 2012:

North: 100

Northeast: 266

Central Western: 300

Southeast: 564

South: 662

UNPLANTED URUGUAYAN FOREST

LAND PRICES

Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010

• Marginal cost of pulpwood in Uruguay at parity with marginal costs in the

Nordic countries

• Land prices in Uruguay have increased by 5x during last 10 years

• In 2000, good quality forest land with deep soil sold for US$ 500/ha, and

similar land with shallower soils now selling for US$ 2,500-3,000/ha

• 28 000 land transactions in Australia, 1992-2012; 6% real price increase/yr.

AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION IS OF

MAJOR CONCERN

Source: NATURE, Vol 466, 29 July 2010

GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION: 1995-2005

Source: Science news, The Green Revolution is Wilting, 18 Dec. 2012.

WATER AND AGRICULTURE

• Today agriculture accounts for 70-75% of human freshwater consumption

• In 2030 a gap of 40% between demand and supply of freshwater is foreseen

• By 2030 farming will need 45% more freshwater compared to the consumption today

AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION 1988-2000

About 80 million ha forest grabbing

Source: Gibbs, HK et al, PNAS 107 (38) 16732-16737, 2010.

POTENTIALS FOR CHANGE

Source: Kwang-Il Tak, Kookmin University, Seoul, Korea

Forest restorations

in South Korea

FOREST LANDSCAPE RESTORATION

POTENTIAL (million hectares, excluding the boreal)

Higher probability Lower probability

Broad-scale Mosaic Irrigated croplands Rainfed croplands

Temperate 49 190 158 592

Humid Tropics 205 230 111 259

Dry Tropics 19 643 110 456

Total 272 1063 379 1306

Source: Lars Laestadius, World Resources Institute, and Peter Potapov , South Dakota State University, 2010

CROPLAND CONVERSION TO

PRODUCTIVE LAND

• There are 240-290 Mha accumulated of degraded croplands during the last 100 years which could be converted to productive cropland (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011)

• There are 300 Mha of agricultural land that could become more productive and sustainable through agro-forestry (IPFRI, 2006)

VERTICAL FARMING

Source: Nelson, B. Could vertical farming be the future? Frontiers on NBC News, 12 Dec. 2007.

IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking

Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011; http://www.dn.se/nyheter/vetenskap/odlat-

kott-kan-minska-miljoproblem

Source: Jan Wintzell, Pöyry, Sept. 2011

INDUSTRIAL WOOD DEMAND INCREASE TO

2030 IS SIZEABLE

2020

2030

Heat & Power

(primary solid

biomass)

3.0

3.25

Traditional solid

biomass

5.3

5.0

Coal replacement 1.5 2.95

Biofuels

0.9-1.25

1.25-1.75

DEMAND OF WOOD FOR ENERGY (Whiteman, A., 2011 – in billion m3 RWE)

EU Wood/biomass deficit 100-150 million m3/yr

RUSSIA Same harvest level as today, or lower

JAPAN Wood deficit: 50-60 million m3/yr

CHINA Wood deficit: 150-200 million m3/yr

OCEANIA + 40 million m3/yr of industrial wood

SE ASIA Deficit. 20 million m3/yr lower harvest

INDIA Wood deficit: 20-30 million m3/yr

AFRICA Wood deficit: 35 million m3/yr

LATIN

AMERICA

+ 190 million m3/yr of industrial wood; domestically

consumed

U.S.A ???

CANADA Reduced harvest by 50-70 million m3/yr of industrial

wood

2020

OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NORTH

• Dramatically changed future global landscapes

• Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) have, on average, more available land, forests, and water resources per capita than other regions.

• The Nordic nature production systems are more robust than in many other regions of the world

• Land resources in the Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) will become more and more valuable – if managed correctly.

• TODAY

• Short-term single-output thinking

• Businesses think in terms of market supply chains;

farmers and forest owners think in terms of their land;

governments think about environmental issues through

regulations and setting aside protected areas; financial

industries think about investments in sectors and

individual firms. Policies and planning are undertaken by

sector and are conflicting between sectors.

• Land use issues most often fall between agriculture,

forestry, environment, industry, and economic ministries

• Industry-based strategies and business models are

based on constant or falling real prices of resource inputs

THE WAY FORWARD – 1

THE WAY FORWARD – 2 TOMORROW

• Tackling the resource agenda must start with a shift of mind sets

and mechanisms among stake holders and institutions.

• New mind sets must reach across traditional sector boundaries

to deal with the interconnected problems and opportunities of

food-, forest-, energy-production, ecosystem services, water

supply, societal services, rural development, etc., and must

provide sources of synergy and broader economic policymaking.

• Integrated landscape approach applied as an organizing

framework.

• The conventional forest value chain which tells the story from

the forest to the consumer is obsolete – the relevant one is the

landscape value chain.

• The landscape approach is fundamental to meet future

natural resource demands.

LANDSCAPE APPROACH

Production of natural

values = stocks and

states; biodiversity,

climate, wildlife, water,

etc. over large scale

landscapes

Forest production =

flows; wood and money

created in individual

stands

Production of societal

values = stocks and

states created over

large scale landsapes

Productivity/Production Revolution Through Increased Synergy Effects

• The Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry has, for 200 years, been successful but has separated forestry and agriculture issues. It is time for an new structure which can stimulate a dialogue on a future integrated land use.

• The Life Sciences universities (in Sweden, SLU) are, through the boundaries set by the Faculties, efficiently hindering integrated land use thinking. Tear down the Faculties!

• Re-organize the relevant Ministries and their agencies into one Natural Resource Ministry with affiliated agencies!

WHERE TO BEGIN?

Thank you for your attention!

Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB

TT Banan 12, S-77 693 Hedemora, Sweden

Phone/Fax: +46 225 381 02 – Cell: +46 70 381 02 14

Email: [email protected]

and

Guest Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria – www.iiasa.ac.at

Documents

A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre ... · A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre and fuel? Sten Nilsson 200th Anniversary of The Royal Academy