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A Global Geo-Engineering Proposal to Control Atmospheric CO 2 H. Keith Henson. A Comprehensive Solution to Energy and Climate Problems Utilizing Space Resources H. Keith Henson, Founder L5 Society. Scope of the problem. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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A Global Geo-Engineering Proposal to Control Atmospheric CO2
H. Keith Henson
A Comprehensive Solution to Energy and Climate Problems
Utilizing Space Resources
H. Keith Henson,Founder L5 Society
Scope of the problem• 27 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year from producing energy (27 cubic km)
• About half from oil and gas, half from coal
• About half of the 27 cubic kms shows up in the atmosphere, the rest is presumed to dissolve in the oceans.
Atmospheric CO2 ~3000 Bt
• 300 ppm is ~3000 Bt• 1ppm is ~ 10Bt• Rising ~1.5 ppm/yr, 15Bt/yr (2 ton
per person per year)• 27 Bt produced/yr• 400ppm to 300ppm is ~1000 Bt
Getting worse, not better• The non intentional effects
from the developing world's raising standard of living (such as increased ownership of automobiles) are expected to be even more of a problem.
• Coal use in China, almost all for power plants, has already surpassed the US and the EU. (28% in two years)
• China and India are likely to totally dominate the problem with their coal power plant building program
Reasons to Control CO2
• Global warming, more generally climate change
• Ocean acidification (which is more certain than climate change)
• “Control” means more than blind reduction. For example, an engineered plant that tied up carbon as diamond or polyethylene could not be switched off if the CO2 level went too low.
FirstWe Need to
Quit BurningFossil Fuels
We have to anyway
Failing to replace the energy has dire consequences (at least some think so)
Mitigation Needs Energy• Geo-Engineering problem is
to make these sources go away by technical means
• To end use of fossil fuels, a replacement of 15-30 TW is needed
More Energy to scrub CO2 out of the atmosphere
• 1 TW will remove 100 ppm, 1000 billion tons, in 12 years (storage problems)
• Converting CO2 back to hydrocarbons for storage requires 50 TW
Why make expensive synthetic oil to store carbon?
• Liquid hydrocarbons are easy to move in pipelines, there is existing infrastructure at the appropriate scale, and there are empty oil fields to hold it. These are known to have held oil for millions of years..
Where to get this much energy?
• 50 TW is 3-4 times current human use.
• Only three energy sources look like they could scale large enough, fusion, nuclear, and power satellites.
Possible Energy Sources• Fusion is not ready• Nuclear has well known
problems • Power satellites have been
explored for 40 years. They have failed on the cost to lift millions of tons to GEO.
The new idea in this presentation is:
A way to raise a million tons a year to GEO at a cost of less than $100/kg. This gives space based solar power for a penny a kWh, synthetic fuels made from that
power for $1 a gallon, and energy to put carbon back in the ground
Replacing Fossil Fuels
•Subgoals: • Penny a kWh power• $30/bbl synthetic oil• $1 a gallon synthetic fuel
From Here to There• Making synthetic fuel • Getting low cost power from
power satellites • $100/kg to GEO• Removing carbon from air or• Brute force climate control
Synthetic fuelCombustion:
Hydrocarbons plus oxygengives water plus CO2
Reverse CombustionCO2 + 3 H2 gives you
Hydrocarbons—exothermic(56 percent of input energy
is in the hydrocarbons)
Recipe for 1000 bbls of synthetic oil/day (140t/d)• Carbon 120t (5t /hr)• Hydrogen 60t (2.5t/hr)• 40t of hydrogen combines
with oxygen making water and is recycled.
Where do we get the carbon?
• Coal--US consumption• Biomass--carbon neutral• Air--best and might be the least expensive if energy is really cheap
Direct capture of CO2 from ambient air
• 20t/yr/m2 x 12/44/365d/yr =0.0149t/d/m2
• 120t/d/0.0149t/d/m2 = 8000m2
• http://www.ucalgary.ca/~keith/AirCapture.html
100kWh/ton of CO2• 366kWh/t of carbon.
• 5t/hr / .36 MWh/t = 1.8MW
• What about the Hydrogen?
155 m3/hr, at 90 g/m3, 14kg/hr.14 kg/hr x 48kWh/kg = 672kW2.5t/h x 48MWh/ton = 120MW
Theory is 33MWh/t, 83 MW—call it a 100MW for hydrogen for
1000 bbls/day vs 1.8 MW for carbon from air--50 times as much
Given CO2 and hydrogen:• First use 1/3rd of the hydrogen in the
reverse water gas shift reaction. CO2 plus H2 gives CO plus water
• Energy released 41 j/mole• Add in the rest of the hydrogen to
make synthesis gas
Fischer-Tropsch
“Synthesis gas, carbon monoxide and hydrogen, is converted into
liquid hyrocarbons.”
Another approach
http://www.velocys.com/technology/video.php
Equipment cost? Sasol’s• 34,000bbl/day plant, $1 B• $30,000/bbl• 300 days a year, $100/bbl of
capacity• 10 year write off $10/bbl• NOT counting the CO2 capture
plant
The energy cost is in making hydrogen
2.4 MWh/bbl of synthetic oil. At 10 cents/kWh,
$240/bbl, $6-8/gal fuel. At penny a kWh, $24/bbl
US Oil use is 20 Mbbls/day• 100 MW 1000bbls/day• 100 GW 1 Mbbls/day• 2000 GW 20 Mbbls/day• 4 times the current US
electrical capacity
2 TW is a lot of power
But at an installation rate of 500 GW/year it takes only 4 years
for enough power to replace all the oil the US uses. Five years
if we replace the coal power plants first.
The only source that scales into 500GW/yr at low unit
cost is solar power satellites (potentially anyway)
(Talk break)
What does it take to get penny/kWh power?
• 8000 hr/year, $80/year revenue • $800 for a ten years pay off • An installed kW should not cost
more than ~$800• Compare, nuclear plants at $5000 to
$8000/kw
If half the cost is rectenna and parts and the power sat mass is 4kg/kW then lift
cost for 4kg can’t exceed $400 or
$100/kg.
Current rocket launch to GEO at $20,000/kg is about 200 times too
expensive.
Is lift cost to GEO of $100/kg even possible?
• For a 100t/hr moving cable space elevator:
• Energy cost would be 15 cents/kg. • Capital charge at an installed cost
of $100 billion would be $10 billion/0.8 billion kg or $12.50/kg.
• 100,000 t cable, 2%/day, 1000mph
http://www.ilr.tu-berlin.de/koelle/Neptun/NEP2015.pdf
Energy and cost for Rockets
• Neptune rocket puts 350 tons in LEO, 100 tons to GEO
• Fuel cost about $5/kg• Energy payback 40 days (not bad)
http://htyp.org/Hundred_dollars_a_kg/Note_1
• Cost about $1.5 B + $1.5 B operation
• Rating 100 flights.• 100 tons to GEO/flight. I.e., a
10,000 ton power sat lift cost $3 billion or $300/kg.
• Still three-six times too expensive.
• Boggle factor, • Launch every hour, • Twice the size of Saturn V
Pop up and push• 290t rocket, less than a 747• 320 km sub orbital apogee, • Mass ratio 3.2• 200t propellant• 50t structure, 16.5 % (Aircraft)• 40t laser stage (later 50t, ½ PL)
1/20th Scale down of Neptune
• Reserve propellant 6%• 199 seconds burn,• 2 SSME (or equal)• Optional zeroth stage, launch at
40k feet
Ablation Laser• 8 GW in, 4 GW out, 800 5 MW modules
• Little over 1 g• Requires 800 five ton focusing mirrors at GEO
• (bootstrap the mirrors)
Laser stage• Mass ratio 2.7• 25.5 t propellant• 14.5 t payload• 5.6-15.3 km/sec Ve• 12 km/sec in 905 seconds.• No gravity or air drag loses
Laser Power 4GW, 30%, 1.2 GW couples to Ke
• Consider mass being blown off in one second to get 1.1 g (10.78 m/sec2)
• MV = mv where M is the current laser stage mass, V is 10.78 m/sec and m is the mass blown off in one second at velocity v.
So m = 10.78M/v Or v = 10.78 M/m
Ke =1/2mv2
• 1.2 GJ =1/2 mv2
• 2.4 GJ =m(10.78M/m)2
• m = (10.78M)2/2.4GJ• m/sec = (10.78M)2/2.4GW• Solving, 77kg burned off in the first
second for a 40,000kg laser stage tapering to about 10kg/sec
Optimum Flight Angle, 40,000kg1.1 g, miles vertical axis, nm horizontal
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200
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Series1
* * * * * * *Time Flight Vert Horiz Path Vert Horiz Path Alt. Down Down Mass Dyn Newt Drag Grav Air
angle V V V dV dV dV range range Mach Press Drag Drag DensSec (Deg) ft/sec ft/sec ft/sec ft/sec ft/sec ft/sec ft mi ft NM number slugs Lb/ft̂ 2 Coef factor Lb f ft/sec 2̂ Sl/ft̂ 3
0 89.99955 0 0 0 0 0 0 40000 8 0 0 0.00 19886 0 0.50 1.00 0 31.94 5.87E-041 89.99813 10 0 10 10 0 10 40005 8 0 0 0.01 19821 0 0.50 1.00 9 31.94 5.87E-042 89.99522 20 0 20 10 0 10 40020 8 0 0 0.02 19756 0 0.50 1.00 36 31.94 5.87E-043 89.99027 31 0 31 10 0 10 40046 8 0 0 0.03 19691 0 0.50 1.00 82 31.94 5.87E-044 89.98279 42 0 42 11 0 11 40082 8 0 0 0.04 19626 1 0.50 1.00 149 31.94 5.87E-045 89.97228 52 0 52 11 0 11 40129 8 0 0 0.05 19561 1 0.50 1.00 236 31.94 5.87E-046 89.95829 63 0 63 11 0 11 40187 8 0 0 0.07 19496 1 0.50 1.00 344 31.94 5.87E-047 89.94037 74 0 74 11 0 11 40256 8 0 0 0.08 19431 2 0.50 1.00 476 31.94 5.87E-048 89.91812 86 0 86 11 0 11 40336 8 0 0 0.09 19366 2 0.50 1.00 631 31.93 5.87E-049 89.89117 97 0 97 11 0 11 40427 8 0 0 0.10 19301 3 0.50 1.00 811 31.93 5.87E-0410 89.85916 109 0 109 12 0 12 40530 8 1 0 0.11 19236 3 0.50 1.00 1016 31.93 5.87E-0411 89.82178 120 0 120 12 0 12 40644 8 1 0 0.12 19171 4 0.50 1.00 1247 31.93 5.87E-0412 89.77874 132 1 132 12 0 12 40771 8 1 0 0.14 19106 5 0.50 1.00 1506 31.93 5.87E-0413 89.72976 144 1 144 12 0 12 40909 8 2 0 0.15 19041 6 0.50 1.00 1793 31.93 5.87E-0414 89.67461 156 1 156 12 0 12 41059 8 3 0 0.16 18976 7 0.50 1.00 2109 31.93 5.60E-0415 89.61307 169 1 169 12 0 12 41222 8 4 0 0.17 18911 8 0.50 1.00 2341 31.93 5.60E-0416 89.54495 181 1 181 13 0 13 41397 8 5 0 0.19 18846 9 0.50 1.00 2701 31.93 5.60E-0417 89.47007 194 2 194 13 0 13 41585 8 7 0 0.20 18781 11 0.50 1.00 3092 31.93 5.60E-0418 89.38829 207 2 207 13 0 13 41785 8 9 0 0.21 18716 12 0.50 1.00 3515 31.93 5.60E-0419 89.29947 220 3 220 13 0 13 41998 8 11 0 0.23 18651 14 0.50 1.00 3971 31.93 5.60E-0420 89.20350 233 3 233 13 1 13 42225 8 14 0 0.24 18586 15 0.50 1.00 4460 31.93 5.34E-0421 89.10028 246 4 246 13 1 13 42465 8 18 0 0.25 18521 16 0.50 1.05 4989 31.93 5.34E-0422 88.98973 260 5 260 13 1 13 42718 8 22 0 0.27 18456 18 0.50 1.05 5549 31.93 5.34E-0423 88.87179 273 5 273 14 1 14 42984 8 27 0 0.28 18391 20 0.50 1.05 6146 31.93 5.34E-0424 88.74640 287 6 287 14 1 14 43265 8 33 0 0.30 18326 22 0.50 1.05 6781 31.93 5.09E-0425 88.61353 301 7 301 14 1 14 43559 8 39 0 0.31 18261 23 0.50 1.05 7106 31.92 5.09E-0426 88.47315 315 8 315 14 1 14 43867 8 47 0 0.33 18196 25 0.50 1.05 7787 31.92 5.09E-0427 88.32525 329 10 330 14 1 14 44189 8 56 0 0.34 18130 28 0.50 1.05 8507 31.92 4.85E-0428 88.16984 344 11 344 14 1 14 44526 8 67 0 0.36 18065 29 0.50 1.05 8834 31.92 4.85E-0429 88.00692 358 12 359 15 1 15 44877 8 78 0 0.37 18000 31 0.50 1.05 9600 31.92 4.85E-0430 87.83652 373 14 373 15 2 15 45242 9 92 0 0.39 17935 34 0.50 1.05 10405 31.92 4.62E-0431 87.65866 388 16 388 15 2 15 45623 9 107 0 0.40 17870 35 0.50 1.05 10726 31.92 4.62E-0432 87.47338 403 18 403 15 2 15 46018 9 123 0 0.42 17805 38 0.50 1.05 11575 31.92 4.41E-0433 87.28074 418 20 418 15 2 15 46429 9 142 0 0.43 17740 39 0.50 1.05 11883 31.91 4.41E-0434 87.08080 433 22 434 15 2 15 46854 9 163 0 0.45 17675 41 0.50 1.05 12775 31.91 4.41E-0435 86.87361 449 25 449 15 2 16 47295 9 187 0 0.46 17610 45 0.50 1.05 13708 31.91 4.20E-0436 86.65924 464 27 465 16 3 16 47752 9 212 0 0.48 17545 45 0.50 1.05 13998 31.91 4.20E-0437 86.43778 480 30 481 16 3 16 48224 9 241 0 0.50 17480 49 0.50 1.05 14973 31.91 4.00E-0438 86.20930 496 33 497 16 3 16 48712 9 272 0 0.51 17415 49 0.50 1.10 15968 31.90 4.00E-0439 85.97388 512 36 513 16 3 16 49216 9 307 0 0.53 17350 53 0.50 1.10 17027 31.90 3.82E-0440 85.73162 528 39 530 16 3 16 49736 9 344 0 0.55 17285 54 0.50 1.10 17284 31.90 3.82E-0441 85.48261 545 43 546 16 4 17 50273 10 386 0 0.56 17220 57 0.50 1.10 18383 31.90 3.64E-0442 85.22696 561 47 563 16 4 17 50826 10 431 0 0.58 17155 58 0.50 1.10 18616 31.90 3.64E-0443 84.96479 578 51 580 17 4 17 51395 10 479 0 0.60 17090 61 0.50 1.10 19754 31.89 3.47E-0444 84.69620 595 55 597 17 4 17 51981 10 533 0 0.62 17025 62 0.50 1.15 20866 31.89 3.47E-0445 84.42129 611 60 614 17 5 17 52584 10 590 0 0.63 16960 65 0.50 1.15 22090 31.89 3.31E-0446 84.14018 629 65 632 17 5 17 53204 10 652 0 0.65 16895 66 0.50 1.15 22271 31.89 3.15E-0447 83.85299 646 70 649 17 5 18 53841 10 719 0 0.67 16830 66 0.50 1.15 22433 31.88 3.15E-0448 83.55988 663 75 667 17 5 18 54496 10 791 0 0.69 16765 70 0.50 1.15 23685 31.88 3.01E-0449 83.26096 681 80 685 18 6 18 55168 10 869 0 0.71 16700 71 0.50 1.20 24852 31.88 2.87E-0450 82.95635 698 86 704 18 6 18 55857 11 952 0 0.73 16635 71 0.50 1.20 24968 31.87 2.87E-0451 82.64621 716 92 722 18 6 18 56565 11 1042 0 0.75 16570 75 0.50 1.20 26294 31.87 2.73E-0452 82.33064 734 99 741 18 6 19 57290 11 1137 0 0.77 16505 75 0.50 1.23 27036 31.87 2.60E-0453 82.00981 752 106 760 18 7 19 58033 11 1240 0 0.78 16440 75 0.50 1.23 27101 31.87 2.48E-0454 81.68386 770 113 779 18 7 19 58794 11 1349 0 0.80 16375 75 0.50 1.27 28032 31.86 2.48E-0455 81.35293 789 120 798 18 7 19 59574 11 1465 0 0.82 16310 79 0.50 1.27 29437 31.86 2.37E-0456 81.01715 807 128 817 18 8 19 60372 11 1589 0 0.84 16245 79 0.50 1.27 29449 31.85 2.26E-0457 80.67670 826 136 837 19 8 20 61188 12 1720 0 0.86 16180 79 0.50 1.32 30604 31.85 2.15E-0458 80.33169 845 144 857 19 8 20 62024 12 1860 0 0.89 16115 79 0.50 1.32 30581 31.85 2.05E-0459 79.98231 864 153 877 19 9 20 62878 12 2008 0 0.91 16050 79 0.50 1.38 31931 31.84 2.05E-0460 79.62869 883 162 897 19 9 20 63751 12 2165 0 0.93 15985 83 0.50 1.38 33431 31.84 1.95E-0461 79.27095 902 171 918 19 9 21 64644 12 2332 0 0.95 15920 82 0.50 1.38 33347 31.83 1.86E-0462 78.90927 921 181 939 19 10 21 65555 12 2507 0 0.97 15855 82 0.50 1.44 34696 31.83 1.78E-0463 78.54379 941 191 960 19 10 21 66486 13 2693 0 0.99 15789 82 0.50 1.44 34576 31.83 1.69E-0464 78.17468 960 201 981 20 10 21 67437 13 2889 0 1.01 15724 82 0.50 1.50 35871 31.82 1.61E-0465 77.80208 980 212 1003 20 11 22 68407 13 3095 1 1.03 15659 81 0.50 1.50 35668 31.82 1.54E-0466 77.42615 1000 223 1025 20 11 22 69397 13 3313 1 1.06 15594 81 0.50 1.60 37820 31.81 1.46E-0467 77.04703 1020 235 1047 20 12 22 70407 13 3542 1 1.08 15529 80 0.50 1.60 37577 31.81 1.39E-0468 76.66487 1040 247 1069 20 12 22 71437 14 3782 1 1.10 15464 80 0.50 1.80 41991 31.80 1.33E-04
Launch every 15 minutes• 96 flts/day, 60-100 rockets• Growth with more laser• Life 20 years at 600 flights/year• Aircraft type maintenance• 14.5 ton payload, 1392 t/day
Bounce mirrors after 15 hrs
Bounce mirrors after 5 hrs
GEO
Hohmann transfer orbit 5 hr
320km perigee
Credit Dr Stuart Eves
Geometry/Geography• GTO injection about 2600
NM down range• Needs to be on Equator • Best 5000km water to east• Good choices for US, EU
Location GPS of our private airport: S 00º 06 ' W 049TH 35 '
Or we can use the ESA site at 5 deg North in French Guiana and accept the
payload penalty for being offthe equator
Lasers 45 deg to the WestWinnie Texas 29°49′8″N
94°23′0″WOn I10, between Houston and
Beaumont. Alternately with a few degrees off vertical we could go
as far as Corpus Christi 97.4, Brownsville 96.5 or Laredo 99.48
45 deg to the West• Prime Meridian• England• France• Spain (Madrid at 3 deg)
China
• Three Gorges Dam--22GW largest in the world at 30° 49′ 15″ N, 111° 0′ 8″
• Nothing at or close to 156 deg.Sea launch? Air launch??
Baker Island (US) at 176 deg
• 131 deg optimum• Eastern edge of China• Taiwan• Philippines• Southern tip of Japan• Probably too small
View from the Northwest. The abandoned World War II runway is 1,665 meters long. 1.64 square km.
Baker Island
Laser cost/system cost• $10/output watt • $40 billion for the laser• $60 billion rockets, mirrors, etc• (Neptune RDT&E $24 billion)• Lift Cost looks to be under $100/kg• Charles Millers’s method to pay for it
What to do with cheap power? (After shutting down coal plants)
• Deep ocean reverse osmosis for irrigation water
• Fertilizers• Transport fuel• Aluminum
• Iron and carbon monoxide• Plastics from synthetic oil• Massive recycle, particularly phosphorus
Geo-Engineering Scale• Lifts10,000 t in 7 days, at 2kg/kw 50
5GW power sats/year, 250GW/year• At 4kg/kw, 125GW/year• 2-4 years to shut down US coal plants or
sell 125-250GW/year to the Chinese and Indians who don’t build additional coal plants
• Who gets carbon credits?
Crash Bootstrap Buildout• 2015 25-50 5GW Power
sats/year. Half fed back.• 2020 100 5GW/year • 2025 200 5GW/year.• 2050 30+ TW, Fossil fuels
totally displaced worldwide
Goals for next 40 years• At least double the energy
available to humans to 30TW without releasing more carbon
• Solve climate change, stop the rise and pull the CO2 level down to where ever desired--50TW
Back to Carbon removal• Can take CO2 down to any level for
100kWh/ton or 100GWh/million t.• 1000GW, 200 power sats, would take
out 80 billion t/yr, 40 times US CO2 production in 2008. This rate would reduce the CO2 level to that of 1960 in 12 years. But where to put the CO2? (cube 10 km on an edge)
• For 50 times as much energy, 50TW, 10,000 power sats, we can convert CO2 to synthetic oil and store it in empty oil fields. We know those don't leak over millions of years and the infrastructure (pipelines) is already there.
Or Climate control?• At this level of space activity sunshades in L1 or reflectors in L2 become practical. (If we need to ward off an ice age.)
–By 2050 nanotech devices or genetically engineered plants may be taking so much carbon out of the air and storing it as diamond (or polyethylene ) that the problem may be too little carbon dioxide and the climate starts into an ice age.
R&D Now? For• $1 billion build a 1/1000th scale
4 MW test laser plus one 5 ton mirror in GEO
• Will de orbit many thousands of kg of space junk per year or lift 1 t/day to GEO (in 14 kg pieces)
• Acknowledgement of Jordin Kare.
Unrelated, but amusing Geo-Engineering
• Thermal diodes, pipe, radiator on top, few gallons of propane or ammonia
• Freezing glaciers to bedrock• Floating version to refreeze the
Artic ocean.
Nickel problem, Invar 35% nickel• Why Invar? (eclipses)• Demand 1000 t/day of Invar up, Mt/year• 1986 DA, 2km chunk of nickel-iron ~2x1010t• Swings from just outside earth orbit to just outside
Mars orbit, will hit Mars eventually• 50 days investment, 50,000 t plant• 300-1000 people? Mine for 10,000 years• Delta V is about the same as Mars transfer• 3-4 years after first power turned on• Not considering trace elements
http://www.htyp.org/dtc (short link)
http://www.htyp.org/Dollar_a_gallon_gasoline
http://www.htyp.org/Penny_a_kWh
http://www.htyp.org/Hundred_dollars_a_kg
http://www.htyp.org/Miller%27s_method
What can you do each day with 140 tons of synthetic fuel?
• Nearly fill the tanks on a C-5• Fill 91 M-1 Abrams (505 gal = 3368.35
lbs) to go 275 miles or • Fill 1850 HMMWVs (25 gal = 166.75
lbs) going 350 miles.• Navy?
–Military transport 2100
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