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12th Arrábida Forum Rethinking the Future of Information Society: the next 20 years
A few inspiring snapshots from a journey into 2050's digital futures
Arrábida, 11 October 2013
2015-2025 (?)
2010-2014 2015-2019
Barroso II
2010-2020 (Europe 2020) + Anticipation
+ Evidence
+ Participation
Citizen's Engagement
Futures
Next College
Key Issues
Make sense
Co-create
Influence
Purpose
Co-Creation
• Bottom-up • Spontaneous • Emergent
Sense Making
• Top-Down • Structured • Convergent
Workflow (2)
Outcomes
Digital Futures
Futures
100+ Events, 2000+ co-creators
20 FutureFridays
1150> Futurium members
Breaking into new policy making practices
Futurium model
20+ Requests for take-up
Themes
Futures
Policy ideas
Evidence items
ICT at the crossroad of future science and policy developments
New materials
Long term advances in ICT
Graphene Spintronics Quantum
Cognitive
hardware
Bio-computing
Internet
Big Data Super
computing
Simulation Swarm
intelligence
Nano robotics
Photonics
Organic
computing
3D printing
Autonomous
systems
Mix reality Human enhancement Energy positive
Trust technologies
The down of a trans-humanistic era
What are the ethical and regulatory implications?
Will people adapt?
What are the opportunities?
Science &Technology
Economy
Environment Personal
Life
Society
Governance
Implants
Identity
Bioethics
Super-
senses Eco-friendly
Regulation & law
Organ
farms Nano-
robots
Plug&Play
Human
Performance Safety
Freedom
& control
Preventing
Divides Productivity
growth
Adaptation
Acceptance
Super-centenarian societies
How to harness the opportunity of an ageing population?
How to ensure inter-generational dialogue?
How to prevent new divides?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Nano-surgery
Inter-
generational
dialogue
Ageing
society
Super-
senses
Demographic
control
Regenerative
medicine
VPH
Productivity
growth
Wisdom
Families
Preventing
Divides Healthcare
Sustainability
Personalized
medicine
Cradle-to-grave, work and play
How to stop erosion of job market?
How to ensure a lifelong learning for all?
How can we build a liquid welfare?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Flexibility
Concurrent
sourcing
Liquid
welfare
Lifelong
learning
Technology
aversion
Shared jobs
Wages Personal
aspirations
Nonlinear
turnover
Inter-
generational
clashes
Digital
Technologies
Lifelong
entrepreneurship
New economic models
How to break the debt conundrum?
How to build the foundations for a new economic system?
How to harness the new geo-localisation of prosumption?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Systemic
Automation 3D Printing
Do-It-Yourself
Just-in-time
Productivity
growth Crowd
funding
Non-monetary
systems
Circular
economy
Co-growth
New indexes
Internet
Sustainability
equations
Agile
governance
Re-
localization
Social
Innovation
Lifestyles
New actors and polarities
How to ensure right balances?
What rules for Big Data?
How to make sense of the emergent intelligence?
How to fill the skills gaps?
A new bill of right reflecting new EU values in digital transformation?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Empower
ment
Social
Media Big Data
Trust
Personal
data
Jurisdiction
Identity
EU Values
Grant &
Revoke rights
Tradeoffs
Literacy
Transparency
Evidence
Mindset
change
Collective
intelligence
Standard
Rules
Democracy
Arts, sciences and humanities
How to achieve the involvement of policy makers and civic society?
How to assure the quality and credibility of data and models being used?
How to ensure reward and recognition and prevent plagiarism?
How creativity can be reflected into innovation?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Big Data
HPC
Models Simulation
Rewarding
Innovation
Virtualisation
Virtual labs
Crowd
financed
research
Global
Systems
analysis
Decision
making
Sustainability
Lifestyles
Creativity
Training
Narratives
Productivity
IPR
Learning
How to achieve universal access to learning?
How to maintain quality within a 'liquid' system
How to ensure that education leads to better jobs and innovation?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Blurring
boundaries
Flexibility
Personalized
learning
Immersive
virtual spaces Human
enhancement
Brain-machine-
brain interfaces
Liquid
learning
Quality
Program
ming
Synergy
Literacy
Better jobs
Innovation
Universal
access
Gaming
Re-inventing media
How to raise awareness of role of media? New and traditional?
How to ensure quality in a world of co-creators?
How to manage IPR in mash-ups?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Big Data
Media
prosumption
Quality
IPR
Copyright
Vested
interest
Ethics
New
media
Content
Change of
roles
Culture
Regulation
Transparency
Pluralism
Search
Creativity
Hyper-connected human
How to support European industrial competitiveness?
How to ensure EU values are reflected in future Internet Governance?
How to ensure that hyper-connectivity is brought to all?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Broadband
networks
Organic
computing
IoT
Storage and
Big Data
Silo-ed
infrastructures Hyper-
distributed
architectures
Open HW&SW
Regulations
Spectrum
Emerging
societal
applications
Prevent
Divides
Innovation
Trustworthy
technologies
Standards
Privacy Biz models
Cities, villages and communities
How to maintain cities and villages as hubs for open streams of people and ideas to move between them?
How to develop a fair competitive landscape throughout the territory?
Can we assure that investments are equitably distributed geographically?
How to stimulate behavioural changes to balance the sustainability equation?
How can ICT, new materials help ?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Decentralization
3D printing
Relocalisation
New service
economy Prevent
divides
Mobility
Internet
City-
scape
New
materials
Migration
Smart
infrastructures
New
materials
Big Data
Water
Energy
Recyclable materials
Behavioral
changes
Shared
economy
Lifestyles
Pursuing global peace
Will we succeed in reconciling the fragmentations of today’s humanity due to ethnic, culture, religious, economic, educational dividers?
Can a responsible development of technology be useful to manage tensions and to prevent conflicts?
How digital technologies can help manage migration and integration?
How can they foster multi-culturalism and equality?
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Multi-polar
tensions
Social
control
Resource
sharing Solidarity
Fundamen
talism
Commonal
ities
Middle
class Inter-generational
gap
Multiculturalism
Equity
Religion
Right
balances
Values
Work force
Competition
Surveillance
Demography
Equality
Rights
Trust
integration
18/10
1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders
• Standard format: participatory brainstorming
• Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,…
• Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings
• Going local: Member States, schools, conferences…
• Viral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules
2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium)
• Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow
• Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,…
• Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding
• Agent-based gaming and simulation (early 2013)
emergent collective intelligence
19/10
Futurium Model
Trend
Every European
Digital
Future
Future
Future
DAE Policy
A1 A101 A A
B A C
Futures (visions)
Policy Ideas pillars actions
Agents
p1 p7
2012 2020 2050
Policies: • Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T.
objectives • May be structured (e.g. pillars) • Atomic level: timed actions • Have a measurable impact • Other measurable attributes
(e.g. plausibility, innovation, …)
Futures: • Desirability (emotional view) • Likelihood (rational/scientific view) • Causality: antecedent->consequent • Forecasting vs. back casting
• + Challenges and Opportunities
Agents: • Stakeholders in broad sense (EC,
MS, Regions, Industry, Citizens…) • Implementers (those who execute
the actions) • Verifiers • Decision makers
Policy
A A
p p
A A
Future Future
Future
@ ? #
Discrete Objects of
Collective Inquiry
Futures
(Visions)
Policies
Inspire
Impact on
individuals, society,
economy,
environment,
politics,
technologies,… Real world
Trends
Scientific
Evidence
Sense & Analyse data,
Identify issues and challenges,
Elicit knowledge
(Re-)shape Inform
Envision
IMPLEMENTATION /
REVIEW
DESIGN
Stakeholders
Policy makers
Other factors
than evidence
Social
Networks
Ra
tio
na
l, s
cie
nti
fic
, a
na
lyti
ca
l Emotional, intuitive, holistic
Rules
and Laws
More information
Paper: "The Futurium - a Foresight Platform for Evidence-Based and
Participatory Policymaking"
http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=a
rticle&id=doi:10.1007/s13347-013-0108-9
The futurium platform:
http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/
Obrigado!
Energy
positive
“Play &
Rewind”
Cyborgs &
super-humans
Implanted/ Embedded
converged technology “Organic”
computing
Cloud
computing
Energy
efficient
Internet
Cognitive and
soft robots Complex
systems
Virtualisation
2015-20 2040-50
Fo
un
dati
on
s
Tech
no
log
ies
Ch
allen
ges/
Issu
es
Financial
crisis
Sustainability
Healthy
ageing
Resource
efficiency
Climate
changes
Governance
Trust
Security
privacy
Property,
Ownership Resource
sharing
Participative
decision
Governance
Towards
immortality
Interim/beta
status Body/mind
adaptation
Quantum
Internet
Trans-humanism
“Conventional” ICT (Silicon based,
Packet switching, Boolean, …)
ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno-
Quantum convergence
Energy positive
“Play & Rewind”
Trans-humanism
“Organic” computing
Hyper-connectivity
Bio-robotics
Snapshots of the future
Financial stability
Beyond Global
Warming
Trust
Ownership
Synergetic
Economy Models
Participative
decision
Super-centenarians
Interim/beta status
200+ Futures
S&T
Ec
En PL
So
Go
Education
ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Quantum convergence
Privacy
Virtualisation
Art and creativity
Predictive
Policing
Empowerment
Big-Data
Equality
Liquid
Welfares
Mobility
Resource sharing
Space exploration
Beyond poverty Continuous learning
Ethics
Migration
Regenerative and
personalized medicine
Culture
Leisure