A Democratic Conundrum: Illiberal Democracy and Putin’s

RussiaProfessor Neil Mitchell

Outline

• Defining Democracy and the Concept of Illiberal Democracy

• Application: Russia– Constitutional framework– The Exercise of Power

A Democratic Conundrum

• Difficulty Defining Democracy?– Multidimensional concept– “Essentially contested concept” (W.B. Gallie) – Categorical (various categories) or

Continuous Concept?

Australia 10

Austria 10

Belgium 10

Canada 10

Costa Rica 10

Cyprus 10

Czech Republic 10

Denmark 10

Finland 10

Germany 10

Greece 10

Hungary 10

Ireland 10

Israel 10

Italy 10

Japan 10

Lithuania 10

Mauritius 10

Mongolia 10

New Zealand 10

Norway 10

Netherlands 10

Papua New Guinea 10

Poland 10

Portugal 10

Slovenia 10

Spain 10

Sweden 10

Switzerland 10

Trinidad 10

United Kingdom 10

Uruguay 10

United States 10

Botswana 9

Bulgaria 9

Chile 9

France 9

India 9

Jamaica 9

Macedonia 9

Panama 9

Peru 9

South Africa 9

Slovakia 9

Taiwan 9

Thailand 9

Argentina 8

Bolivia 8

Brazil 8

Dominican Rep 8

Guatemala 8

Indonesia 8

Kenya 8

Latvia 8 Lesotho 8 Mexico 8 Moldova 8 Nicaragua 8 Paraguay 8 Philippines 8 Korea South 8 Romania 8 Senegal 8 Turkey 8 Albania 7 Colombia 7 Croatia 7 Estonia 7 Ghana 7

Honduras 7 Madagascar 7 Malawi 7 Russia 7 El Salvador 7 Sri Lanka 7 Ukraine 7 Benin 6 Bangladesh 6 Ecuador 6 East Timor 6 Fiji 6 Guyana 6 Mali 6 Mozambique 6 Namibia 6

Venezuela 6

Serbia and Montenegro 6

Armenia 5

Georgia 5

Sierra Leone 5

Comoros 4

Iran 4

Malaysia 4

Nigeria 4

Niger 4

Cambodia 3

Djibouti 3

Ethiopia 3

Tanzania 3

Zambia 3

Burkina Faso 2

Jordan 2

Singapore 2

Algeria 1

Angola 1

Cameroon 1

Central African Republic 1

Chad 1

Guinea-Bissau 1

Guinea 1

Haiti 1

Kyrgyzstan 1

Nepal 1

Tajikistan 1

Togo 1

Tunisia 1

Yemen 1

Azerbaijan 0

Bahrain 0 Bhutan 0 Belarus 0 China 0 Congo Brazzaville 0 Cuba 0 Egypt 0 Equatorial Guinea 0 Eritrea 0 Gabon 0 Gambia 0 Kuwait 0 Kazakhstan 0 Laos 0 Libya 0 Mauritania 0 Morocco 0 Myanmar (Burma) 0 Oman 0 Pakistan 0 Korea North 0 Qatar 0 Rwanda 0 Saudi Arabia 0 Sudan 0 Swaziland 0 Syria 0 Turkmenistan 0 UAE 0 Uganda 0 Uzbekistan 0 Vietnam 0 Zimbabwe 0 Afghanistan -66 Bosnia -66 Iraq -66 Lebanon -66 Ivory Coast -77 Solomon Islands -77 Somalia -77 Burundi -88 Liberia -88 Congo Kinshasa -88

• Further reading: Gerardo L. Munck, and Jay Verkuilen. 2002. “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy.” Comparative Political Studies (February) 35:5-34.

“Illiberal Democracy and The Russian Federation

• “Democracy is flourishing; liberty is not.” Zakaria

• Russian Democracy:– 1993 Democratic Constitution

Mixed presidential-parliamentary system, federal

1993 Constitution

• Executive• Legislature • Constitutional Rights

– Article 29 guarantees free speech and media

“The freedom of the mass media shall be guaranteed. Censorship shall be prohibited.”

• Strength of guarantee?

http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=363&year=2007

What about Power?

• The Three Sources of Power • 1. Coercion (hard power): “ You can take the man out of

the KGB but not the KGB out of the man”• Direct exercise:

– Arrest of Khodorkovsky – Igor Shuvalov (Kremlin aide). “Once you behead someone,” he says,

“you give a good example [to Russia's other tycoons] of how to behave.” Those “oligarchs” not in prison or exile are indeed politically quiescent. Economist 13/7/2006

– Chechnya – high estimates of civilian fatalities

• Indirect Exercise: "Who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?" – Journalists and critics – canaries of a political system– Who murdered Anna Politkovskaya 7/10/06 or Litvinenko?

Journalist Killed 1992-2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Iraq

Algeria

Russia

Colom

bia

Philippi

nesIn

dia

Bosnia

Turk

ey

Rwanda

Sierra

Leo

ne

Tajik

istan

Somali

aBra

zil

Afgha

nistan

Banglad

esh

Pakista

n

Mexic

o

Sri La

nka

Angola

Yugosla

via

Source: Committee to Protect Journalists

Journalist Killed

1992-2007 Journalists Killed for their Journalism

• 1.   Iraq: 1202.   Algeria: 603.   Russia: 474.   Colombia: 405.   Philippines: 326.   India: 227.   Somalia: 208.   Bosnia: 19      Turkey: 1910. Rwanda: 16      Sierra Leone: 16      Tajikistan: 16      Afghanistan: 1614. Brazil: 1515. Pakistan: 1416. Mexico: 1317. Bangladesh: 1218. Sri Lanka: 1119. Angola: 8      Yugoslavia: 8

The Committee to Protect Journalists

• an independent, nonprofit organization founded in 1981. We promote press freedom worldwide by defending the rights of journalists to report the news without fear of reprisal.

• CPJ applies strict journalistic standards when investigating a death. We consider a case "confirmed" only if our research confirms or strongly suggests that a journalist was killed in direct reprisal for his or her work; in crossfire; or while carrying out a dangerous assignment. We do not include journalists who are killed in accidents—such as car or plane crashes—unless the crash was caused by hostile action (for example, if a plane were shot down or a car crashed trying to avoid gunfire).

• http://www.cpj.org/killed/killed_archives/stats.html

Coercion sociology

• Siloviki – KGB/Military background

%Siloviki in Government

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Gorbachev Yeltsin 1993 Yeltsin 1999 Putin 2002

Source: Kryshtanovskaya, Anatomy of the Russian Elite. cited in FT 11/2/2003

%Siloviki in Government

Incentives and Persuasion: Soft Power

• 2. Incentives– Oil and growth

• 3. Persuasion– Media– NGOs

Candidates Nominating parties Votes %

Vladimir Putin United Russia 48,931,376 71.2

Nikolay Kharitonov Communist Party of the Russian Federation 9,440,860 13.7

Sergey Glazyev none, but supported by Rodina 2,826,641 4.1

Irina Khakamada 2,644,644 3.8

Oleg Malyshkin Liberal Democratic Party of Russia 1,394,070 2.0

Sergey Mironov Russian Party of Life 518,893 0.8

Against all 2,319,056 3.5

TOTAL 66,307,156 100

Illiberal Nondemocracy?

• Is it even illiberal democracy? • Is it “the worst form except all those other

forms that have been tried from time to time in Russia”? (Is it: “a conundrum within a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”)

• Labels aside: It is worth thinking about leadership, the decisions made, and as I’ve indicated the sources of power.

Leadership and Decisions

• More assertive internationally

• Domestic politics– Upcoming Duma election (freeze food prices

until January 2008)– Appointment of Zubkov

• No signs of ‘liberty’ or ‘democracy’ increasing

• Continuing approval