Voter List Maintenance

A Cost Benefit Analysis

Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data ManagerGovernment Accountability Board

By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson,John Magnino, Daniel Marlin,

Matthew Mayeshiba, Mai Choua Thao

◦ What is it? Process of suspending inaccurate or inactive voter

registrations

◦ Why do it? Maintaining accurate voter records Administrative cost savings

◦ In Wisconsin, VLM is mandated by state statute

Voter List Maintenance (VLM) – An Overview

VLM in Practice

1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) 2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National

Change of Address (NCOA) Database 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database

Policy Alternatives

Cost of postage ◦ 17% increase

Cost of printing◦ 336% increase

Cost of NCOA◦ $53,000 across 1,047 municipalities

Costs of Municipal-Level Alternatives

1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) 2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National

Change of Address (NCOA) Database 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database

Policy Alternatives

3. GAB Use of Mass Mailing and USPS NCOA Database (Hybrid Option)

Current Policy

No vote cast in

election

2014

No vote cast in

election

2016

GAB sends “Notice of

Suspension” postcard to

address on file

Spring 2017

NCOA Alternative

Voter moves

Voter not flagged by

NCOA

GAB sends “Notice of

Suspension” postcard to

address on file

Voter does not move

Voter flagged by

NCOA

Voter stays on voter rolls indefinitely

2014 Within 6 months

Hybrid Option

Voter moves

Voter not flagged by

NCOA

GAB sends “Notice of

Suspension” postcard to

address on file

Voter does not move

Voter flagged by

NCOA

2014 Within 6 months

No vote cast in two consecutive election cycles

GAB sends “Notice of

Suspension” postcard to

address on file

2014 through 2016 2017

Mailing Process (All Alternatives)

Postcards Sent by

GAB

Voter sends postcard back to

continue registration

Postcard returned as undeliverable

Postcard is delivered, but not

returned

Municipal Clerk processes

continuation

Municipal Clerk inactivates voter

registration

After 30 days, GAB inactivates voter

registration

VLM in Practice

NCOA Startup Costs ($14,000)

NCOA Contract ($5,750)

Printing and Mailing One Postcard ($0.30)

Staff Costs from Processing One Postcard◦ Continuation ($0.96)◦ Undeliverable ($1.09)◦ Unreturned ($0.00)

Costs of VLM

Type I error: Cost of Incorrectly Leaving One Invalid Voter on the Voter Rolls ($0.05)

Type II error: Cost of Incorrectly Inactivating a Valid Voter from the Voter Rolls ($8.36)

Costs of VLM (continued)

Results: Net Present Value

Staff time costs associated with processing undeliverable postcards

Quantifying Type II errors

Additional social cost of errors◦ Voter fraud◦ Disenfranchisement

Limitations

Questions?

Table 1. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by Municipal-LevelRange Number of

MunicipalitiesPercent of All Municipalities

Number of Postcards Sent

Percent of Total Postcards Sent

0 to 19 408 21.35% 4294 1.43%20 to 39 522 27.32% 15389 5.13%40 to 59 301 15.75% 14696 4.90%60 to 79 163 8.53% 11144 3.72%80 to 99 99 5.18% 8827 2.94%100 to 249 234 12.24% 35564 11.86%250 to 499 95 4.97% 32412 10.81%500 to 999 46 2.41% 30631 10.22%1000 to 7000 41 2.15% 89042 29.71%over 7000 2 0.10% 57749 19.27%Total 1911 -- 299748 --Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by Municipality, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.

Rule Out Municipal-Level Policies

Table 2. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by County-LevelRange Number of

CountiesPercent of All Counties

Number of Postcards Sent

Percent of Total Postcards Sent

300 to 999 22 30.56% 15465 5.16%1000 to 1999 14 19.44% 19552 6.52%2000 to 4999 22 30.56% 70811 23.62%5000 to 9999 9 12.50% 66861 22.31%over 10000 5 6.94% 127059 42.39%Total 72 -- 299748 --Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by County, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.

Rule Out County-Level policies

Table 6.2-1. Percent of Voters Identified As Inactive

Date of List Maintenance

Registered Voters

Postcards Sent

Percentage

February 1, 2009 3,502,196 313,205 12.52%

April 14, 2011 3,493,927 240,226 6.88%

March 25, 2013 3,690,529 299,748 8.12%

VLM Across Time

Table 6.2-2. Percent of Voters Registered with the NCOAState - Date of NCOA Registered Voters Voters

IdentifiedPercentage

Minnesota - 2012 3,387,783 115,129 3.40%

Ohio - 2012 6,031,860 296,327 4.91%

% of Voters Registered with NCOA

Number of names per poll book sheet 20

Average unit cost of printing poll book sheet $.15467

Number of poll books per polling place 2

Average Number of elections in a year 3

Type I Error Marginal Cost $.046

Type I Error Costs

Net Benefits Equation

𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠=𝐶𝑁𝐶𝑂𝐴+𝐶𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔+𝐶𝑀𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔+𝐶𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓 +𝐶𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼+𝐶𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼

Cost of Printing Notification Postcards

Cost of Mailing Notification Postcards

𝐶𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔=𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑×𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠

𝐶𝑀𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔=𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠×( ¿ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑙×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑙 )¿+¿∧(𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 )¿+¿∧(𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑡×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑡 ) )

Cost of Processing Returned Postcards

𝐶𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓¿

=𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠

¿ ×( ¿ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ×𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒)¿+¿∧ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒× 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒)¿+¿∧ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑× 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑢𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒) )¿

¿

Type I Errors = Cost of Failing to Remove Ineligible Voters

Type II Errors = Cost of Incorrectly Removing Voters Who Have Not Moved

𝐶𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼

¿=𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑡 2𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟𝑠 ×(( ¿ (𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑊𝐼𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑖𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒)

¿×¿ (𝑇𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡+𝑇 h𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐 +𝑇𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 ))+(

¿𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒¿×

¿𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒)+( ¿𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒

¿×¿𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔))¿

Annual Costs

Projected Total Costs of Current Policy

1.10

1.14

1.18

1.22

1.26

1.30

1.34

1.38

1.42

1.46

1.50

1.54

1.58

1.62

1.66

1.70

1.74

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Figure 13.2-1: Total Costs for Current Policy

Total Costs (in $millions)

Fre

quen

cy

Projected Net Present Benefits of NCOA-Only Alternative

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.44

0.48

0.52

0.56

0.60

0.64

0.68

0.72

0.76

0.80

0.84

0.88

0.92

0.96

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Table 13.2-2: Net Present Value of NCOA Alternative

Net Present Value (in $millions)

Fre

quen

cy

Projected Net Present Benefits of Hybrid Option

-0.32

-0.28

-0.24

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04 0.0

00.0

40.0

80.1

20.1

60.2

00.2

40.2

80.3

20.3

60.4

00.4

40.4

80%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%Table 13.2-3: Net Present Value of Hybrid Alternative

Net Present Value (in $millions)

Fre

quen

cy