A Coastal Observing and Forecasting System for the Baltic Sea

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A Coastal Observing and Forecasting System

for the Baltic Sea

Lennart FunkquistSwedish Meteorological and

Hydrological Institute

Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

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Swedish Coastal Waters

some areal facts

• Economical zone is about 155 000 km²

• Territorial water amounts to about 82 000 km²

• European Water Framework Directive (WFD) only contains about 36 000 km²

• But the whole Skagerrak, Kattegat and Baltic Sea may be regarded as coastal waters

• The length of the Swedish coastline is 11 500 or 32 000 km depending on definition

• About 100 000 islands


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Swedish Coastal Watersphysical and biological conditions

• From an almost oceanic condition in the Skagerrak the salinity decreases to about 1-2 psu in the northern Baltic.

• Great spatial and seasonal variation of physical, chemical and biological parameters

• Normal condition means that almost half of the Baltic is ice-covered during late winter

• The Baltic Sea with its brackish water contains many species that live on their outer edge of survival.

• Conditions may get worse as future climate may result in fresher water conditions.

Typical salinity in the Baltic

Reproduktionsvolym Bornholmsbassängen 2:a kvartalet

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

dep

th

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Harmful agea blooms during summer


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Skagerrak

Kattegat

Bornholmbasin

East Gotland basin

Increased acidic conditions in the Baltic Sea.

Does it depend on increased absorption of atmospheric CO2 ?There is a decrease of pH with about 0.02/10 years in the global seas (IPCC-07)


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Ships of opportunity Monitoring cruises Ferry-Box Satellite Coastal stations Buoys

Regular observations

One-year coverage

for a typical year

Water levelBuoys


Added: Real-time and NRT data from all Baltic Sea countries

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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

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Nitrat (M )

HOME Water as a complement to traditional monitoring

responds to the Water Framework Directive

Reported parameterMonth

J F M A M J J A S O N DTotal-Nitrogen*) × × × × × × ×

Total-Fosforous*) × × × × × × ×

Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN)*)

× × ×

Inorganic Fosforous (DIP)*)

× × ×

Chlorophyll*) × × × ×

Oxygen**) × × ×

Secchi Depth ×

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

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Nitrat (M )


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The SMHI forecasting system

ECMWF

HIROMB

HIRLAM

Ocean/sea ice model Wave model

Data

assimilation

Ecological model

River runoff model

Ocean data

Built on a complete atmosphere/land/ocean system:

• Atmospheric model• Ocean/sea ice model• Open boundary forcing• Data assimilation• Ecological model• Wave model• River runoff model• Atmospheric deposition model• Fine resolution coastal models• Oil spill model

MATCH

Atm. Deposition

model

Open boundaries


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Fresh water and nutrients input to the Baltic basin

with an operational river runoff model

0

2 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0

A t m . d e p .o n l a k e s

I n d u s t r y P o p u l a t i o n F o r e s t O p e n l a n d

T o t - N ( t o n n e s /

y e a r )

0

1

2

o n d j f m a m j j a sM o n t h

T o t - N ( m g / L )

m e a s u r e d

c o m p u t e d

0

2 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0

1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0

( m 3 / s ) Q ( c o m p u t e d )

Q ( r e c o r d e d )

~ 1 720 000 km2


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Kernel: HIROMB co-operation

Existed for more than ten years

Sustainable

Contract

National funding

Real-time data exchange

HIROMB agreement

BOOS

NOOS

Daily forecast and forcing data

1 nm +48h forecast

3 nm +10 days forecast

Freely available on ftp-site

Real-time validation and forecasts

Freely available on WEB-site

www.smhi.se/OceanWeb

user:littorina pwd: hermes

Downstream services

Oil spill Algea

Harbours Sea rescue

Sea ice service SMHI consulting

Fish and crab larvae

9 partners from 8 countries


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HIROMB System

Agreement

10 Partners, 9 countries

Steering Committee

Board

National HELCOM representative

Agreed Annual Plan

Scientific Co-ordinator

R&D programme

Annual Workshop

Operational Co-ordinator

7d/24h Operational Centre

Operational models/Data collection/Data dissemination

On-going projects

ECOOP MyOcean

Polarview Damocles

BANSAI EMAPS


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OceanWeb

Forecast and validation on WEB-site

sea level

currents

surface salinity

SST and sea ice

vertical profiles

wind

Waves

observations

R/V Argos

observations


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Data assimilation

Sea surface temperature Assimilation of a temperature profile. Climatology(top), assimilation using 10 observations (middle) and observed temperature (bottom)


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Downstream service: oil spill Downstream service: oil spill

Fu Shan Hai, June 3, 1200 UTCFu Shan Hai, June 3, 1200 UTC

SeaTrackWeb an internet application

SLAR imageSLAR image ForecastForecast

At 1018 UTC on Saturday May 31 2003 Fu Shan Hai, fully laden with a cargo of At 1018 UTC on Saturday May 31 2003 Fu Shan Hai, fully laden with a cargo of 66,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser loaded in Ventspils, Latvia was struck by a container 66,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser loaded in Ventspils, Latvia was struck by a container ship, Gdynia north of Bornholm.ship, Gdynia north of Bornholm...Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007

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HIROMB-SCOBI

Modelled Chattonella-bloom in Feb 2002

Left: Surface chlorophyll (mg/m) from satellite Feb 24.

Middle and right: Model results of total chlorophyll and Chattonella concentrations (0-4m depth) from February 2002 24.

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Skagerrak-Kattegat 2002: SCOBI Variable Chlorophyll (mg Chl/m3)

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Skagerrak-Kattegat 2002: SCOBI Variable Chattonella (mg Chl/m3)

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Fine-resolution operational local models

A fjord in Skagerrak

A fine resolution model (60m) together with STW (oil spill drift model) is run operationally. The service is paid by an oil refinery situated in the inner part of the fjord


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Conclusions

Observational network needs improvement

satellite data OK for SST and sea ice

not enough data for biological variables

more buoys are needed

a chain of coastal buoys is developing

Upgrading of ocean and ecological model

increased resolution with increased computer capacity

data assimilation will be further developed

a more advanced ecological model is needed


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Reported parameter

Month

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Total-Nitrogen*) × × × × × × ×

Total-Fosforous*) × × × × × × ×

Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN)*) × × ×

Inorganic Fosforous (DIP)*) × × ×

Chlorophyll*) × × × ×

Oxygen**) × × ×

Secchi Depth ×

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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

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Nitrat (M )

Documents

A Coastal Observing and Forecasting System for the Baltic Sea