A Choice of Platform:Excel® and Crystal Ball ®

Michael SchilmoellerTuesday, February 2, 2011

SAAC

2

Overview• The importance of transparency and

accessibility– Availability of diagnostics

• The topography of the RPM• High-performance Excel

– XLLs– Carefully controlled calculations

• Crystal Ball and CB Turbo• Olivia• The efficient frontier

3

Observed StatesManifest Capacity (MW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NEW Cohort Cost ($M Real) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 133.9 136.5 139.22 Status 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 32 Cost ($M Real) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 133.9 136.5 139.2

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00141.8 144.4 147.1 149.7 152.3 246.5 340.6 434.7 524.7 614.7

3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 7 7141.8 144.4 147.1 149.7 152.3 246.5 340.6 434.7 524.7 614.7

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27284.76 28452.62 30000.00 23409.07 30000.00 30000.00 29112.87704.7 794.7 884.7 974.7 1367.7 1367.7 1367.7 1367.7 1367.7 1367.7 1367.7

7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5704.7 794.7 884.7 974.7 974.7 974.7 974.7 974.7 974.7 974.7 974.7

30-Per Life

27427.51 30000.00 30000.00 28187.09 27192.54 30000.00 25637.19 30000.00 27456.80 0.00 0.001121.3 1027.1 933.0 843.0 753.0 663.0 573.0 483.0 393.0 0.0 0.0

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 9728.2 634.1 540.0 450.0 360.0 270.0 180.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

C:\Backups\Plan 6\Studies\Model Development\Construction Cost Uncertainty\FixedCst_08.xls

Transparency

4

Overview• The importance of transparency and

accessibility– Availability of diagnostics

• The topography of the RPM• High-performance Excel

– XLLs– Carefully controlled calculations

• Crystal Ball and CB Turbo• Olivia• The efficient frontier

5

Layout of the RPM

6

Logic StructureSource: Q:\MS\Plan 5\Appendix Model\AppL_060227.doc

7

Overview• The importance of transparency and

accessibility– Availability of diagnostics

• The topography of the RPM• High-performance Excel

– XLLs– Carefully controlled calculations

• Crystal Ball and CB Turbo• Olivia• The efficient frontier

8

High-Performance Excel

• XLLs – special dynamic link library (DLL) files containing both C/C++ “native” add-in functions via Excel “C” API and “flat” functions to control Excel memory

• Bypass Excel’s calculation tree– Strict enforcement of the calculation order

with Range.calculate method– Store function values for recall– Enable functions selectively

9

High-Performance Excel(An Aside)

• Windows Server 2008 r2 provides an High Performance Computing (parallel-processing) add-on, now in beta 3

• The HPC initiative is aimed at Excel users and Excel 2010 has provisions for user to configure Server 2008/HPC for enhanced workbook performance

10

Requirements

• Windows XP• Excel 2000 or better• COM Typelibs:

– NWPCC• Errdll.dll – error handling and reporting• NWPCC07Risk.xll – dispatch algorithms, etc.

– Microsoft:

11

Overview• The importance of transparency and

accessibility– Availability of diagnostics

• The topography of the RPM• High-performance Excel

– XLLs– Carefully controlled calculations

• Crystal Ball and CB Turbo• Olivia• The efficient frontier

12

Crystal Ball and CB Turbo

• It seemed like a good idea at the time….• The trials and tribulations of third-party

software• Current status

13

Overview• The importance of transparency and

accessibility– Availability of diagnostics

• The topography of the RPM• High-performance Excel

– XLLs– Carefully controlled calculations

• Crystal Ball and CB Turbo• Olivia• The efficient frontier

14

Olivia

15

Olivia

16

Olivia

17

Olivia

18

Olivia

19

Olivia

20

Olivia

21

Olivia

22

Olivia

23

Olivia

24

Overview• The importance of transparency and

accessibility– Availability of diagnostics

• The topography of the RPM• High-performance Excel

– XLLs– Carefully controlled calculations

• Crystal Ball and CB Turbo• Olivia• The efficient frontier

25

The Efficient Frontier

• A device for filtering out “bad” plans (not to be confused with “bad” NPV outcomes)

• One plan “dominates” another if it is no worse in any regard, and better in at least one regard, than the other

• The bad plans are the dominated plans

26

Evaluating Vaccines

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

27

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

AB

28

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

AB

29

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

30

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

31

The Efficient Frontier

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

77 78 79 80 81 82 83

Thou

sand

s

Thousands

Side Effects

Inef

fect

ive

source: \EUCI 100323 Presentation\Efficient Frontier\EUCI 100323 01.xls

32

What does the Efficient Frontier Tell Us?• The Efficient Frontier does not

tell us what to do• The Efficient Frontier tells us

what not to do• Most useful if there are a large

number of choices

33

Resources• Fifth power plan• http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/(06)%20Risk%20Sect

ion.pdf• http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/(07)%20Portfolio%20

Analysis.pdf• http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/AppendixP.pdf• http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/Appendix%20L%20(P

ortfolio%20Model).pdf• Sixth power plan• http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/final/SixthPowerPlan_

Ch9.pdf• http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/final/SixthPowerPlan_

Appendix_J.pdf

34

End

35

Observing States

Option Selection (integer)

FOM(R $M/ MW/ period)

Late Constr Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period 2̂)

Earliest Availability (Period)

Regional Share

Retirement mothball life (periods)

Retirement evaluation cost (RL $M/MWPeriod)

Decommisioning cost (RL $M/MWPeriod)

First Period Mothball Costs(RL $M/ MW/ Period)

First Period Cancellation Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period^2)

Generation technology Status

LT Fuel Price (Range name)

MTBR (weeks) FOR [0…1]

Nameplate (MW) - required for cost calcs of existing units only

256 0.01310136 0.002999913 100% 0.000448407 0 CCCT New 1 0.05 1

Criterion Set ID

Planning Periods

Early Construction Periods

Late Construction Periods

Development Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period 2̂)

Mothball Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period)

Cancellation Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period^2)

Early Constr Costs(RL $M/ MW/ Period 2̂)

CancelThreshold (

Const Cost Escl (.01=1%/period)

ResourceLife (periods)

OptionLife (periods)

Market-driven ramp rate (MW)

Planned Development Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period^2) Index

CCCT Criterion_004 0 4 6 0 0.000087896 0.021963468 0.00313711 -99999 0.000% 30 20 FALSE 0.0013258 0

Option Selection (integer)

FOM(R $M/ MW/ period)

Late Constr Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period^2)

Earliest Availability (Period)

Regional Share

Retirement mothball life (periods)

Retirement evaluation cost (RL $M/MWPeriod)

256 0.01310136 0.002999913 100%

Criterion Set ID

Planning Periods

Early Construction Periods

Late Construction Periods

Development Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period^2)

Mothball Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period)

Cancellation Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period^2)

CCCT Criterion_004 0 4 6 0 0.000087896 0.021963468Decommisioning cost (RL $M/MWPeriod)

First Period Mothball Costs(RL $M/ MW/ Period)

First Period Cancellation Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period 2̂)

Generation technology Status

LT Fuel Price (Range name)

MTBR (weeks) FOR [0…1]

Nameplate (MW) - required for cost calcs of existing units only

0.000448407 0 CCCT New 1 0.05 1

Early Constr Costs(RL $M/ MW/ Period^2)

CancelThreshold (

Const Cost Escl (.01=1%/period)

ResourceLife (periods)

OptionLife (periods)

Market-driven ramp rate (MW)

Planned Development Costs (RL $M/ MW/ Period^2) Index

0.00313711 -99999 0.000% 30 20 FALSE 0.0013258 0

C:\Backups\Plan 6\Studies\Model Development\Construction Cost Uncertainty\FixedCst_08.xls

Transparency